tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post1434311666803069404..comments2024-03-28T00:59:01.483-07:00Comments on India's housing bubble: Prices correcting in Hyderabad - MaytasUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-62913097557161299062008-07-18T01:52:00.000-07:002008-07-18T01:52:00.000-07:00So, another boomer (Realty Rider)joins the league....So, another boomer (Realty Rider)joins the league. Lets see what kind of rabbits he keeps pulling out of his hat...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-73407668520514499662008-07-18T01:18:00.000-07:002008-07-18T01:18:00.000-07:00Worried that property prices may cool down? With I...Worried that property prices may cool down? With India tipped to become the most sought after real estate market among emerging economies, you may not really have to fasten your safety belts just yet. In fact, just 10 land deals in India over the past 12 months were valued at over a whopping Rs 15,000 cr. Evidence enough to prove that reports citing office rentals in Delhi and Mumbai being costlier than more developed real estate markets such as New York City, Dubai and Singapore, are not off the mark. Although Delhi and Mumbai still held on to seven out of top 10 mega realty deals in the country, Hyderabad and Chennai too emerged as hotspots for big ticket transactions. With an acute shortage of land in metro cities and escalating land costs, it will not be long before other locations such as Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, Coimbatore and Pune will grow as centres of major land deals in the near future. Real Estate Investing has probably made more millionaires than any other industry in Hyderabad. Real Estate Investing also offers many rewards including cash flow, security, long-term wealth and numerous tax benefits.For more view- realtydigest.blogspot.comRealty Riderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12992753937563556345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-47509162233577636652008-07-11T21:46:00.000-07:002008-07-11T21:46:00.000-07:00Jaise behanchood tujhe ho rahi hai.Jaise behanchood tujhe ho rahi hai.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-60879323195252128652008-07-11T21:29:00.000-07:002008-07-11T21:29:00.000-07:00Koi bhuchal nahi aya. Jis purane, phatichar makan ...Koi bhuchal nahi aya. Jis purane, phatichar makan mein tu kiraye pe rahta hai, uski neev dhah rahi hai. Koi naya achcha sa ghar khareed le varna roj bhuchal ayega. Aukat se jyada paisa kise bhi nahi milta. Jisko aukat ke hisab se kum paisa milta hai, use jalan jaroor hoti haiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-8437453244742324832008-07-11T19:01:00.000-07:002008-07-11T19:01:00.000-07:00Mujhe lag raha hai ki bhuchal aane wala hai India ...Mujhe lag raha hai ki bhuchal aane wala hai India mein. <BR/><BR/>Sab kuch easily mil raha tha. I met some people in the last few weeks around Delhi, mostly were in decent jobs earning around 30-40lacs p.a. working with GE or other foreign Co. Most of them were basically Chutiyas. Apni aukat se jyada paisa kama rahe hain log. The guy I met from GE says that housing is good because of some games in Delhi on 2010 and would remain like that till after games. <BR/>I asked him about his education. He said he did his BTech from IIT Kanpur and MBA from IIM-A. <BR/><BR/>I told him that both your degrees should be forfeited. Such a mother fucker that he didn't have a clue of world markets and overall macro economy. A lot of Indian MNCs are full of fools like these.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-31618356188119670842008-07-11T17:57:00.000-07:002008-07-11T17:57:00.000-07:00sensex would dip down to 3000 in 2 yrs.massive lay...sensex would dip down to 3000 in 2 yrs.<BR/>massive layoffs in IT/BPO and Finance sector will kill the buoyancy that gaggle of mungerilals felt over last 5 yrs of credit orgy unleashed by their western patrons.<BR/>indian govt clowns would be aghast at the carnage and public outcry and renewed calls for public sector jobs where at least mugerilals had security (of course,at the expense of 80% of poor gangadins)..<BR/>some companies like Tata motors will go bankrupt as their debts would exceed assetsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-85921083836929916032008-07-11T15:19:00.000-07:002008-07-11T15:19:00.000-07:00US economy is expected to lose 200,000 jobs per mo...US economy is expected to lose 200,000 jobs per month starting in winter 2008. <BR/><BR/>I think most MBAs and investment folks are interested in short term profit and quick money. They come up with all these ponzi schemes or I would say scams to rip people off their money. And after the 1980deregulation of US industry, they are like unleashed dogs trying to bite everything. UD feds are now contemplating more regulations to leash these educated unethical idiots. Corporate America even sold the US to China. Businesses don't care about country or their citizens. Their prime focus is money, money and money. <BR/><BR/>It is coming back to bite US corporates in their arse. All those hefty pay packets for CEOs would soon be history. And all those $200K salaries for investment bankers would be gone. <BR/><BR/>It would be interesting to watch the state of affairs over in the US and here in India.<BR/><BR/>I'm sure Ashish and Boss are trying to unload their properties.<BR/>Shayad unko akal aa rahi hai. Nahin to 3-4 months mein akal aa jayegi.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-18487345607031775312008-07-11T10:24:00.000-07:002008-07-11T10:24:00.000-07:00All these overpaid MBA's from Harvard and Stanford...All these overpaid MBA's from Harvard and Stanford are useless in their jobs. If they are so smart, how come they have caused their own ships to sink. Yesterday it was Bear Stearns, Today its Fannie/Freedie. Tomorrow Wachovia, Washington mutual. I think wall st is going to bleed jobs and the Indian stock market MBA's are about to get their bout of the US flu.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-80854334509792767522008-07-11T07:30:00.000-07:002008-07-11T07:30:00.000-07:00Lehman Brothers ki maa chudne wali hai. That stock...Lehman Brothers ki maa chudne wali hai. That stock will be worth pennies soon.<BR/><BR/>These are the companies who have employed all these incompetent IIM MBAs who are in their own world.<BR/><BR/>Massive layoffs are coming in India. Just wait and watch. There will be a bloodbath in Indian housing and blame games.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-58636969144654518292008-07-11T07:26:00.000-07:002008-07-11T07:26:00.000-07:00Abe Ullu ANon,Tu gahda hi rahega. On what basis Se...Abe Ullu ANon,<BR/>Tu gahda hi rahega. On what basis Sensex will go up by 300 points next week.<BR/><BR/>Sensex will be down 1000 points next week. There is a financial slaughter going on in the world markets.<BR/><BR/>The only point I wanted to make was the way Indian stocks behave more or less the way US stocks do, similar would be the housing trend. There ia a major worldwide liquidation coming.<BR/><BR/>No need to panic yet for Indians as it would still take months for it to happen in India.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-61650467290352386092008-07-11T07:10:00.000-07:002008-07-11T07:10:00.000-07:00If oil prices keep appreciating, that is bad. If v...If oil prices keep appreciating, that is bad. If vegetable prices keep appreciating that is bad. If wheat and rice prices keep appreciating that is bad. If electricity charges, telephone call charges, water charges, education costs keep appreciating, that is bad.<BR/><BR/>So why would house prices appreciating every year be a good thing for the country? <BR/><BR/>Observer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-69943171093702717592008-07-11T05:37:00.000-07:002008-07-11T05:37:00.000-07:00Observer anonymous is very happy because sensex's ...Observer anonymous is very happy because sensex's 500 point fall or will that be 456? Small detail so we can ignore this. We can again see the original prediction :-<BR/><BR/>"Ok, How much is the Sensex going to go down today? Since you know everything you can tell this also. <BR/>I'll tell you at least 500 point down. Why and how? Use your brain that how much India is now dependent on US?"<BR/><BR/><BR/>The day of sensex going down and total number of points in the prediction was wrong as I showed yesterday. But small detail so let us ignore.....<BR/>The poster said yesterday sensex will fall because US was down. Didn't happen. Yesterday night US index was positive still our sensex falls. why you ask?<BR/><BR/>Too high inflation number reported<BR/>Slow growth in industrail sector reported<BR/>Infosys result OK but market still disappointed, all IT stcks fall<BR/><BR/>None of this got predicted by any correction crowd but they are very busy taking credit for that. Now everyone is jumping up and down coz they see few projects in few citis offering discounts. That happens all the time.I had seen one project in Delhi NCR in 05. Even if the prices were booming everywhere they had to offer discounts coz their 1 st phase was useless, people were complaining and none was booking in later phases. After selling for low price and promising better quality they could sell all. It is still a shit complex and they have no resale value. Few examples like this do not prove anything.<BR/><BR/>Here is my prediction, sensex will go up 300 points on Monday. Even if it does not go up Monday it can still happen next day, week or even next year. Then I am very confident observer anonymous will say "Shabbash, Bahot Khub" to me. A preiction is a prediction who cares for timing ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-14379469106389264482008-07-11T04:20:00.000-07:002008-07-11T04:20:00.000-07:00One other note. It is not that I am against builde...One other note. It is not that I am against builders. I do think it is important that the builders make profits. This will allow them to invest in new technology, expand their business and participate in the development of India. <BR/><BR/>However, whenever things become too skewed one way or the other, for example when ordinary people are going deeper and deeper into debt, it is not good either. For the country overall to do well, both users as well as producers should find a balance. <BR/><BR/>Observer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-42696201379127524062008-07-11T04:16:00.000-07:002008-07-11T04:16:00.000-07:00I should state that I am a neutral observer in all...I should state that I am a neutral observer in all this. I am not planning to buy real estate for another 8-10 years at least. Nor do I have any real estate to sell. It is just that my interest got piqued when I noticed that apt prices in India have started approaching US prices. Having been to the US often, and knowing the standard of living in the US and India, I find this to be rather incongruous. Hence, I decided to observe the situation and do some basic analysis and then comment.<BR/><BR/>I do not have any real agenda. I think in the end, every individual should judge his own risk tolerance, and do the arithmetic themselves before entering or exiting the property market. Instead of purely relying on the internet for advice, people should do their homework.<BR/><BR/>Observer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-17340749904141442242008-07-11T03:54:00.000-07:002008-07-11T03:54:00.000-07:00Well well, the Sensex did drop by almost 500 point...Well well, the Sensex did drop by almost 500 points today. Good prediction Anon. Looking at the market fundamentals, it appears that the Sensex is still overvalued by 20%. So, it would be fairly valued if it drops to 11K. The market always corrects eventually. Industrial growth has slowed to 3.8% last quarter. If companies were to grow annual earnings at 20% every year, it would mean that in 4 years, their earnings would double, thus justifying a doubling of the Sensex to 25K. Simple arithmetic. <BR/><BR/>The correction in the housing market has started. In Bangalore, the Prestige Shantiniketan apartments at Whitefield is dropping in price from Rs 3200 psf to Rs 2850 psf, as a relative of mine negotiated hard yesterday. Even then, he is considering waiting for some more time. This is a 15% correction. So it looks like people like "the Boss" and Ashish, who claim that there will be no correction, are living in denial. I believe, by looking at wage/price fundamentals, there is an additional correction of 15-20% that my relative is hoping for.<BR/>The annual increment in Bangalore IT companies is coming down this year into the single digit percentages. House price growth has overshot wage growth by at least 40% over the last 3-4 years. Buyer beware.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, for people in Bangalore who are interested in Prestige Shantiniketan, please start negotiating hard, it looks like they are now willing to deal :-)<BR/><BR/>Observer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-56657850640321695062008-07-10T10:35:00.000-07:002008-07-10T10:35:00.000-07:00Boss,Tu ghonchu hi rahega.What are you bloody tryi...Boss,<BR/>Tu ghonchu hi rahega.<BR/><BR/>What are you bloody trying to prove? You like to buy, then keep buying.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-73991453299399994072008-07-10T09:58:00.000-07:002008-07-10T09:58:00.000-07:00One peculiar difference between stock market advan...One peculiar difference between stock market advance and real estate gains of last few years is the perception of interested parties. The stock rally was uniformly loved by all and sundry. The calls of 25000 and 30000 were very common and these targets seemed inevitable. Although the stock market came down because of a host of global and domestic factors, this extreme bullish sentiment displayed by investors accentuated the fall. In real estate, the scenario is quite different. If you exclude builders and major RE companies, a great majority of people are unanimous in the call for a crash/big correction and have been predicting it almost for a couple of years now. Many of the doomsdayers and naysayers are actually very insecure fence sitters providing vital support for the prices as they succumb one by one and keep buying homes. And this crowd is very big, just pay attention to all that noise. So if it is a bubble, which I doubt it is, it can last much, much longer than anyone can endure. Fence sitters should make a note of it. Although the property rates have doubled, or tripled in some cases, over last 3-4 years, the sensex also has gone from 3000 to 21000 and currently it is at 13000. The wages have been growing for a decade and real estate started playing catchup only in 2003-2004. I don't intend to advise investors/speculators one way or the other. I respect decision of people to stay on rent if the down payment/EMI is too much for them. But for the large number of people who can afford to buy a house but have turned into fence sitters fed on false hopes of a serious correction, only frustration and pain is in store.Musket Firehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08152132663015479219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-89276765153627797372008-07-10T08:27:00.000-07:002008-07-10T08:27:00.000-07:00Western countries ne Murgi India ko itna khila-2 k...Western countries ne Murgi India ko itna khila-2 kar pehle stocks mein mota kiya (22k levels) aur phir dheere-2 halaal kar rahe hain.<BR/><BR/>All the institutional investors are using retirement funds of US tax payers and investing in emerging markets. The 401 K statements for this quarter are so bad that these institutional investors will have to pull their money out of risky markets and put it back in Dow/Nasdaq. <BR/><BR/>Similarly, RE ka mrga bahut mota ho gaya hai. Uska halaal hone ka time aa raha hai.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-77739737051899960952008-07-10T07:08:00.000-07:002008-07-10T07:08:00.000-07:00I remember all those "stories" about how the India...I remember all those "stories" about how the India growth "story" was intact. Not sure which novel they were reading. Even until December 2007, the market manipulators, including brokerages like Kotak Mahindra, DSP Merrill Lynch, Societe Generale, and others were claiming that the Sensex would go up to 25000, and that doomsayers saying the Indian market was overvalued were plainly ignorant and did not have any shred of evidence. Here are some links and some quotes below:<BR/><BR/>http://ablazeworld.com/content/view/12/1/<BR/><BR/>http://moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/see-sensex-at-25k-levels-by-2007-end-societe-generale/15/15/308004<BR/><BR/>http://gyanguru.org/secular-bull-run-set-to-continue/<BR/><BR/>and many others. Some were even claiming that the Sensex would touch 30,000 soon! Demographics, India Growth Story, Geopolitical events, outsourcing, insourcing, globalization, and other reasons were touted as justifying the excessive P/E ratios of Indian companies. Most were extrapolating the spectacular 18% growth in earnings for Indian companies in 2007 well into the future. I had withdrawn from Indian stocks back in February 2007 itself, fearing they were overvalued, and were going to go down by 40% in a couple of months. Yes, the bubble did go on for longer than that, but eventually every market reverts to the fundamentals, no matter the propaganda and justifications. It is just simple arithmetic. Now, I do not claim that the Sensex will never touch 25,000. It may. If Indian companies keep growing earnings at 20% every year for the next 4 years, sure the Sensex could be at 25,000 and still be fairly valued.<BR/><BR/>Rates quoted by builders have more than doubled in the last 3 years, while wages for white collar professionals have only gone up by 80% at most. This is based on the salary surveys in 2003 and 2007 for the metros. Metro apartment rates were taken from the Business Section of Deccan Herald. People should not expect this rate of wage growth to continue well into the future. <BR/>They should not forget that unlike investing in the stock market, there is a significant amount of leverage that a white collar professional commits to when buying a house with a bank loan. For rich people who pay cash for their houses, of course none of the cautions apply. They are probably not wage earners anyway.<BR/><BR/>The very fact that investors like Ashish, Boss and others are now out in full force to start offering justifications on why property prices will continue appreciating should be a warning to end users. Buyer beware.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-61038290491602003972008-07-10T05:34:00.000-07:002008-07-10T05:34:00.000-07:00Don't worry. It is coming. Stock market is also fu...Don't worry. It is coming. Stock market is also full of fools like you. Didn't it go down from 22K level to current 13K level and heading towards 10K level.<BR/><BR/>There are speculators everywhere. I'm not against growth or increase in investments. But any investment done without fundamentals supporting and masses buying it leads to bubbles. <BR/><BR/>You don't have to believe it. You may want to buy some more flats and wait for them to double in another 2-3 years. Good luck.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-40466058989215056942008-07-10T04:18:00.000-07:002008-07-10T04:18:00.000-07:00"Ok, How much is the Sensex going to go down today..."Ok, How much is the Sensex going to go down today? Since you know everything you can tell this also. <BR/>I'll tell you at least 500 point down. Why and how? Use your brain that how much India is now dependent on US?"<BR/><BR/>sensex closed down 38 points but you said it will be at least 500 points down!!!<BR/><BR/>If this is your ratio then when you say home prices will decline 50% I think it would be actually 3.8%, or not?<BR/><BR/>I do not have super brains like you but know one fact that is never be overconfident when you guess the rise and fall of sensex or home price or anything else not in your control.<BR/><BR/>Now cheer because such things happen in life. Better luck tomorrow ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-68656804957435900832008-07-09T23:02:00.000-07:002008-07-09T23:02:00.000-07:00Guys,Lets not fight. The blog was started in dec 2...Guys,<BR/><BR/>Lets not fight. The blog was started in dec 2005 when I first noticed rapidly increasing prices in Mumbai. I then realised that this was not limited to Mumbai but all over the country, whether it was Pune, Bangalore, Delhi or Ludhiana. One place where prices didn't jump is Kolkatta and Chennai in 2006. But in 2007 Chennai has taken off and prices have gone thru the roof as well. I think pricing without fundamentals is the reason for the bubble. The debate is affordability. If one cannot afford 140$ oil, then they surely cannot afford 1 cr apartments. The money has to come from somewhere. There will be many people who can afford 1cr apts but that number is still very low as compared to the those who can afford 25L apartments. If the 1cr apartments have something special, many of these consider the community to be of similar affluence level, for e.g. Palm meadows in Bangalore. These communes will hold value. But expecting every apt/villa plot of land to be similar is the reason for the bubble. Realtors quote any value without fundamentals. Apartments in Mumbai are priced at 1cr when residents in those buildings make an annual average salary of 5L. Betweeen 1996-2003 Mumbai prices didn't move at all and all new construction was crappy. Since 2003 we have been seeing good quality buildings but those have priced out mostly everyone. Anyone buying a 1cr apartment please post your experience now. I'd like to see how many readers who read this blog and argue on the negatives are willing to put their money where their mouth is.Vikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14772111799029574023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-3674767828329902482008-07-09T22:42:00.000-07:002008-07-09T22:42:00.000-07:00ok, just wait and watch for the nonexisting bubble...ok, just wait and watch for the nonexisting bubble to pop. Many people kept doing it from 2005. Ask you friends relatives to sell their houses of course if they have any. Then they can live in my houses on rent to watch the buble grow big and bigger from the terrace. Then They can buy back there flats at much much higher price from me later on. Once they are done buying then only bubble will definitely pop ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-15713767925537570272008-07-09T21:29:00.000-07:002008-07-09T21:29:00.000-07:00Hey Anon,There is no use fighting with me. Why don...Hey Anon,<BR/>There is no use fighting with me. <BR/>Why don't you buy some more properties and tell all your friends and relatives to the same.<BR/><BR/>Good for the bubble. Time will tell what is coming. You are here and I'm here. Just wait and watch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-30587175497021947842008-07-09T21:05:00.000-07:002008-07-09T21:05:00.000-07:00"You are still in denial mode. Wait till the shit ..."You are still in denial mode. Wait till the shit hits the fan. <BR/><BR/>Ok, How much is the Sensex going to go down today? Since you know everything you can tell this also. <BR/>I'll tell you at least 500 point down. Why and how? Use your brain that how much India is now dependent on US?"<BR/><BR/>It is you who knows everything. you know shit will hit the fan :-)<BR/>There will be deline in home value<BR/>sensex down by 500<BR/><BR/>But no matter what you say there is no big decline in home values coming up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com