tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post4339738462777133255..comments2024-03-28T00:59:01.483-07:00Comments on India's housing bubble: Mumbai constructions grinds to a haltUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-77925850447661979912008-11-26T06:01:00.000-08:002008-11-26T06:01:00.000-08:00Thanks, for all those braveheart "investors" and "...Thanks, for all those braveheart "investors" and "proud second- home-owners" here are some stories to thrill and enthuse you into buying more "properties". Go to the link below and get a blow by blow account.<BR/>http://www.r2iclubforums.com/forums/f25/beware-punes-notorious-builders-5759/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-38390848137184953322008-11-26T01:51:00.000-08:002008-11-26T01:51:00.000-08:00Read this : Review about a builder Al-Track group ...Read this : <BR/><BR/>Review about a builder Al-Track group of Pune :<BR/><BR/>http://www.r2iclubforums.com/forums/f25/ziggurat-dont-even-go-there-9148/<BR/><BR/>This builder has put up his hoardings all over the place in Pune about his famous construction and this forum tells you the reality now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-68605166922982201752008-11-25T18:37:00.000-08:002008-11-25T18:37:00.000-08:00My dear Vulture,YOU ARE VERY INCORRECT WHEN YOU SA...My dear Vulture,<BR/><BR/>YOU ARE VERY INCORRECT WHEN YOU SAY 50% DROP IN PRICES AS THE MARKET WILL NOT CORRECT BUT OVER-CORRECT AND THE DECLINES COULD BE CLOSE TO 70-80% IN A LOT OF BUBBLE AREAS, I WOULD SAY BACK TO 1998-99 PRICES.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-15045643713151156952008-11-25T17:38:00.000-08:002008-11-25T17:38:00.000-08:00We are very happy to hear that Builders are not go...We are very happy to hear that Builders are not going to reduce the prices, we have never asked any body to cut the prices. Then why builders are coming to us, begging that the prices have bottomed down, it’s right time to buy? <BR/><BR/>We are not interested to buy from them, we will buy it in Bank auction, agree you will not get 2% commission, we can understand the pain.<BR/>THE MARKET TIMING IS VERY IMPORTANT, WHO EVER WILL HOLD THE TOXIC ASSET AT THE TIME OF BLAST, IS GOING TO BUST.<BR/>Every one here has 20% price cut offers, so your economicstimes ref doesn’t make any sense here.<BR/><BR/>Today Fitch, put UCO bank on watch list, due to bad loans on balance sheet, ICICI is already on watch list, very soon Bank will get rid of this toxic asset from Balance sheet & auction will start.<BR/>The Vulture strategist group is expecting price decline in all goods & commodities in next few months. Every know that US is now worrying about deflation(falling prices ) risk, considering the US the world’s largest consumer, we expect overall price fall in every sector. Check the fuel prices, it’s coming down. <BR/>As housing is the epicenter of the bubble, it will have long & deep correction. <BR/><BR/>Guys don’t be impatient, let it fall then pick up, minimum 50% price cut is guaranty.<BR/><BR/>Vulture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-66756118022263391822008-11-25T17:07:00.000-08:002008-11-25T17:07:00.000-08:00Ex-Realtor. Can you write down your experiences wh...Ex-Realtor. <BR/><BR/>Can you write down your experiences while working for the the realty firm ? What was was inside scoop ? Your advise will be valuable to everyone reading this discussion.<BR/>VikVikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14772111799029574023noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-89422039871053993092008-11-25T13:54:00.000-08:002008-11-25T13:54:00.000-08:00BTW, this "correction" or price-cut or what you wi...BTW, this "correction" or price-cut or what you will is going to happen regardless of what crack-pot schemes this abdulla or sunil mantri or dlf/singh think of. The US govt could not prevent the recession with their trillions of dollars printing ability, compared to which the Indian govt. will do nothing and thus..<BR/><BR/>I am reminded of the famous dialogue of Agent Smith in Matrix-1 - Hear that Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of your death! That is the sound of inevitability...<BR/><BR/>These are economic cycles. Markets do not rise by 300-1000% and correct by 20% to resume climbing to another 1000%!! If it does climb another 1000% and rates of flats become lacs/sft..who is going to buy? and what if it falls from there back down to 2000 rs/sft..all the people who have bought at the top will be killed..literally.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-14376643388706098222008-11-25T10:17:00.000-08:002008-11-25T10:17:00.000-08:00Abdulla,Let the builders not cut prices. No one is...Abdulla,<BR/>Let the builders not cut prices. No one is going to buy and they will soon be sitting on a huge inventory. They'll have to reduce prices and even drastically if the properties don't move. They don't have a choice else they will be out begging on the streets.<BR/><BR/>Btw, this time interest rate cuts will not make any difference as the fever is over and people are getting to reality. Now masses are understanding the value of 1Cr and their aukaat to pay it back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-67415057443794754902008-11-25T09:53:00.000-08:002008-11-25T09:53:00.000-08:00the present ones are also compromised on quality, ...the present ones are also compromised on quality, it is not proportional to price at all, read about the famous highrise slab collapse in bangaloreAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-27845945064913453912008-11-25T09:41:00.000-08:002008-11-25T09:41:00.000-08:00when prices come down by 50 % (i.e 1000 - 1200 PSF...when prices come down by 50 % (i.e 1000 - 1200 PSF in in bangalore) i believe we need to buy the properties which are ready for occupation as the new ones may be compromised on quality... any thoughts??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-12657139436942308572008-11-25T09:40:00.000-08:002008-11-25T09:40:00.000-08:00Abdulla,Think about your friends and relatives... ...Abdulla,<BR/><BR/>Think about your friends and relatives... everyone will benefit out of price cuts... why are you crying unnecessarily... Still you will make money on commission... If volume dries up you are in deep shit...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-26546566214904792992008-11-25T07:02:00.000-08:002008-11-25T07:02:00.000-08:00Those of you dreaming of a drastic price cut and d...Those of you dreaming of a drastic price cut and doomsday pundits, please read the following which appeared in economic times. <BR/><BR/>Realty cos fight shy of price cuts<BR/>21 Nov 2008, 0202 hrs IST, Sanjeev Choudhary, ET Bureau<BR/><BR/>NEW DELHI: Real estate companies<BR/>seem little inclined to listen to the government’s call to reduce prices. Even as realty firms such as<BR/>DLF, Parsvnath and Emaar MGF demand rollback of taxes, they are reluctant to commit any price cut.<BR/><BR/>An association of developers, Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (Credai), has asked member developers to reduce prices, but no one seems willing to announce any cuts.<BR/><BR/>“The government has imposed a number of taxes on the real estate sector. It needs to roll them back,” said DLF chairman KP Singh. He, however, didn’t make any commitment on price cut. “Prices are a function of demand and supply. Today, supply is far ahead of demand,” he said, adding that housing demand will pick up only after interest rates are brought down to 6-7%.<BR/><BR/>Most developers are banking on the possibility that the Reserve Bank will slash rates that will in turn bring home buyers back into the market. Many developers don’t think it is possible to slash prices.<BR/><BR/>Delhi-based Emaar MGF feels lower interest rates and an improvement in general economic sentiment are the answer to revive residential market, not price cuts. Emaar MGF managing director Shravan Gupta says several micro-markets across the country have already seen a correction of 20-25%.<BR/><BR/>“We have already cut prices, which have brought our margin down to 15% from 30% last year. If we cut prices further, our margin will get wiped out,” said Mr Gupta.<BR/><BR/>Parsvnath Developers chairman Pradeep Jain, too, feels prices are unlikely to come down, even though builders may focus on small-size homes to bring down overall cost. “The ticket size will get smaller for making homes more affordable. But per square feet rate will not come down,” said Mr Jain. He is the president of the Delhi chapter of Credai, which gave a call to its 3,500 members on Wednesday to reduce prices.<BR/><BR/>There is a wide spectrum of views among developers on price correction in the residential market. Even as Emaar MGF’s Mr Gupta says a price correction of around 25% has been seen in several micro-markets across the country, Mr Jain of Parsvnath says prices have remained stable. Another Delhi-based realty firm Omaxe CMD Rohtas Goel says prices have reached ‘rock-bottom’ by having corrected up to 40-50%.<BR/><BR/>The correction, developers say, is not with respect to the rates at which transactions were made in the past. “There is no benchmark to compare rates of new launches. We can only compare it with our estimates of prices, which similar projects could have fetched in good market,” says Mr Gupta.<BR/><BR/>Therefore, price correction, as mentioned by developers, remains debatable. Developers say price correction can be seen only in new launches, as old buyers will not allow builders to reduce prices in an ongoing project.<BR/><BR/>*********************<BR/><BR/>The price correction has been happening. Interest rates are expected to be lowered to 7-8%. The best time to invest in housing will be Jan-June 2009. The demand outstrips the supply, therefore waiting is futile. Indian economy is strong and the growth is unstoppable. Please do not listen to pessimistic loser, for these guys do not wish to move forward in life.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-39569287692887034062008-11-25T03:18:00.000-08:002008-11-25T03:18:00.000-08:00Re. Anonymus 9.15pmMantri ConstructionsThe 50 inve...Re. Anonymus 9.15pm<BR/><BR/>Mantri Constructions<BR/><BR/>The 50 investors who have bought apartments are associates of mantri.( relatives, friends, investors). We are living in 21 century, and if someone gets scammed by the builder, the person deserve it. No doubt, it is a innovative scheme, but home buyers are unlikely to take the bait. There will be many more scams like this as the builders get desperate.<BR/><BR/>There is no binding law in India that can male a builder to adhere to his promises. Normal person always fail to notice the small print and then gets screwed up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-44903860517387288972008-11-24T21:51:00.000-08:002008-11-24T21:51:00.000-08:00I think Govt. should do the following to prevent a...I think Govt. should do the following to prevent another bubble and to bring back sanity to housing market:<BR/>--Keep interest rates same or even higher.<BR/>--At least 20% down payment on RE.<BR/>--Should value RE based on the rent to mortgage ratio i.e. a house renting for 20K should be around 120x20K=24lacs. Govt. should set prices based on above and kill demand. When Govt. comes with a bailout, that is also socialism, so why not make housing availeble for all citizens who voted for them as it is a basic necessity.<BR/>--Govt. should mandate 5% increase on RE based on inflation or bank rates.<BR/>--Govt. should definitely stop this black money business. All transactions in white with proper taxes to the country for its growth.<BR/><BR/>All this may not happen as all top people are thieves and how would they marry their kids lavishly or have them educated in US/UK? Don't these thieves have any conscience?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-55037987358590974722008-11-24T21:15:00.000-08:002008-11-24T21:15:00.000-08:00Amid The Slump, A Mumbai Developer Pegs Sales With...Amid The Slump, A Mumbai Developer Pegs Sales With 'Buyback' Offer<BR/>Despite the gloom in the realty sector, Sunil Mantri Realty has managed to sell 50 apartments in one week with a buyback offer incorporated in the sale agreement. As per the scheme, the developer offers to buy back flats three years later if prices dip. The realtor has booked 50 units in four of its projects - three upcoming ones in Gwalior, Sholapur and Bangalore and one nearing completion in Mumbai. The offer began on October 25 '’08 and ended on November 2 '’08. The company aims to offer 50 more units under the scheme.<BR/>15 Nov 2008 The Hindu Business LineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-44603879082913237872008-11-24T20:04:00.000-08:002008-11-24T20:04:00.000-08:00Anon for DLF:Yes, it will be offered even at lower...Anon for DLF:<BR/>Yes, it will be offered even at lower than 1400 psft. Just wait for some time, maybe a year or so.<BR/><BR/>No builder will be able to sell at these prices. Moreover, Bangalore has a supply of houses for the next 10 years. No more construction is needed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-29097210324407073472008-11-24T18:30:00.000-08:002008-11-24T18:30:00.000-08:00The finance minister is once again up to his trick...The finance minister is once again up to his tricks.<BR/><BR/>http://ibnlive.in.com/news/<BR/>chidambaram-says-india-not-staring-at-recession/78902-7.html<BR/><BR/>“Chidambaram said that the only major impact of the ongoing global economic crisis has been on inflation, which will take some time to moderate.”<BR/><BR/>Yes, the inflation has come down and so the salaries. Doesn’t he take his friends from IT companies listed on NASDAQ and NASSCOM chairman to task for incessantly mouthing lies AND ONLY lies about going on hiring spree when in fact they are playing the delaying tactics for new recruits? Check below.<BR/><BR/>Engineers’ salaries melt to Rs5000<BR/><BR/>http://www.dnaindia.com/<BR/>report.asp?newsid=1209282<BR/><BR/>"Priyesh Shah, who passed out from an engineering college in Mumbai this year, is doing just that. Last July, when Shah was <BR/>in the penultimate year of the course, a leading IT company selected him for recruitment. After his graduation, however, the <BR/>Hyderabad-based company kept postponing the joining date, which was initially supposed to be June 23.Frustrated, he approached several other companies, ultimately finding work with HCL Infosystems. But the salary of Rs7,000 a month was a far cry from the earlier offer of Rs25,000.<BR/><BR/>His classmate Mayank Vasani has had to settle for Rs5,000 against Rs21,000 offered to him last June by an IT firm that is <BR/>listed on Nasdaq."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-61042338470480689942008-11-24T18:11:00.000-08:002008-11-24T18:11:00.000-08:00Vulture,When you say 50 % cut can you explain furt...Vulture,<BR/><BR/>When you say 50 % cut can you explain further... currently DLF is giving apt in blore for 2800... will it come to less than 1400 ??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-19236666341595666362008-11-24T17:25:00.000-08:002008-11-24T17:25:00.000-08:00Lot of people are still in dilemma that, the corru...Lot of people are still in dilemma that, the corrupt politician, civil servants, builder lobby OR black money can influence the market fall. If that is the case it would have happens till now, what are they waiting for? They already tried & found that fall is inevitable that is the reason they start begging to people that prices has bottomed, this is the right time to buy. WITH THE HELP OF POLICY CHANGE THEY CAN POSTPONED THE FALL BUT THEY CAN’T STOP IT. <BR/>The past engine of real estate growth is grinding its teeth.<BR/>No foreign fund for speculation, no NRI buyers, no IT/ITS buyer. Do you think the HNI people are going to buy home now? If they are high net worth they already have nice bungalow.<BR/>Why Banks are reluctant to extend the credit to Builder? Even after interest rate cut banks are not willing to give credit to builder against property because they know that the collateral (apartment+shop+office space) is illiquid, yes there is no buyer to buy it at builder’s quoted price, so it is a illiquid asset. If banks will try to extend the credit they will go bankrupt as the toxic asset will come on their balance sheet. Recently Fitch has put ICICI on watch list means there is a chance that the credit rating will degrade. If you will read the analysis, it is pointing to car loan, home loan, loans to builder on ICICI’s balance sheet. No wonder if you are receiving the promotional mail about new project launch from ICICI.<BR/>When will it bottomed down? As per experts when some companies will go bankrupt it’s a sign of reaching to bottom which will clear the financial mess.<BR/><BR/>So guys let it fall then only pick, next year minimum 50% price cut is guaranty.<BR/><BR/>Vulture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-10144790200414412772008-11-24T16:06:00.000-08:002008-11-24T16:06:00.000-08:00Well, the Govt. cannot say the truth as it will ca...Well, the Govt. cannot say the truth as it will cause PANIC in housing prices and stock market.<BR/>Even if prices fall by 20-30% in the next 2 months, Govt. will still say it is just a correction and NOW is the time to buy.<BR/><BR/>All Govt. and RE Lobby will always say it is the right time to buy as they want their interests to be safe guarded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-42439473390747904512008-11-24T15:40:00.000-08:002008-11-24T15:40:00.000-08:00Chidambaram's glib talk is not going to change the...Chidambaram's glib talk is not going to change the economy. With the coming election in mind, he has been trying to boost the market by sweet talking about 9% growth. While the rest of the world is in recession, we will achieve 9% growth!!!!!!!!! what a joke. The UPA government is just buying time. If US and Europe stop outsourcing, we will be in a deep shit. The gulf countries, the major foreign currency earning source, are planning to cut down development plans that may result mass movement of labor force back to India. Everything points to recession but the govt says that we are on top of the world<BR/><BR/>Buckle your belts guys. Do not rely on the 420 governmentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-59299260454456970452008-11-24T13:08:00.000-08:002008-11-24T13:08:00.000-08:00Message from PN Vijayhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/i...Message from PN Vijay<BR/><BR/>http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/lt-ivrcl-to-gaingovt-infra-package-pn-vijay/367646<BR/><BR/>Chidambaram<BR/>http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/economy/see-fy09-growth-moderating-at-7-8-range-fm/367747<BR/><BR/>With all the money hope chidambaram will stabilize the markets and bring cheers to the people who already bought flatsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-55725847565544469352008-11-24T11:44:00.000-08:002008-11-24T11:44:00.000-08:00Very interesting blog. I do agree with most of the...Very interesting blog. I do agree with most of the observations. The building industry is the oneworst hit in this economic down turn. Having worked for a top builder in Mumbai and recently made redundant, I can confidently say that the worst is yet to come. The speculators are likely to see their dream of making big money slowly vanishing as the days go by. The builders are resisting a melt down hoping for a miracle but it is unlikely that they can hold on for long.<BR/><BR/>My estimate is that during next diwali period, the prices in Mumbai will be down by 40% of the current, and thereafter depending on the market. <BR/><BR/>It is prudent to wait and buy at and opportune moment. Based on my experience, the price in Bandra West should be around 4000-6000 sq ft by 2009 diwali for a A class construction. Currently the prices start at 20000/ sq ft for a B class construction which are are not only exorbitant but a total rip off.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-39002924138480339052008-11-24T09:52:00.000-08:002008-11-24T09:52:00.000-08:00Dear Bolggers,No matter if the interest rates go d...Dear Bolggers,<BR/>No matter if the interest rates go down or the Govt. borrows money from World Bank or IMF for a bailout. THE HOUSING IS NOT GOING TO RECOVER. IT HAS TO GO BACK TO SUSTAINABLE LEVELS WHICH I THINK IS 60-70% DROP IN METRO AND HIGH BUBBLE AREAS.<BR/><BR/>The culprit has been exposed and major inventory is going to start building up in the coming months with no buyers in the market. This is the first phase which already happened in US more than 18 months back. Guess, what will happen here in India even after 12 months?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-47901303526923309102008-11-24T08:06:00.000-08:002008-11-24T08:06:00.000-08:00There is one fact that is overlooked by the contri...There is one fact that is overlooked by the contributors to this blog. That is, the major investors in real estate are our own MPs, Ministers, Civil servants, Police officials etc etc. These guys will do their best to salvage their investments and exert pressure on banks to lower interest rates, overlook certain aspects of lending criteria & direct banks to provide loans real estate developers. By now these guys in power very well know that real estate is doomed but they hope that extending the life of the bubble, they hope to rescue their investments. <BR/><BR/>How far these guys are going to be successful in their venture is anybody's guess. Those who are at the receiving end, people like us, should totally refrain buying property until the storm settles down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-36714268847557305892008-11-24T06:41:00.000-08:002008-11-24T06:41:00.000-08:00Arvind Singhal: The denial of realityAs if on cue ...<A HREF="http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=340787" REL="nofollow">Arvind Singhal: The denial of reality</A><BR/><BR/>As if on cue from the USA where there is an increasing clamour for more government bailouts, many in the Indian private sector have started to make similar noises. Of all those who have been the most vocal in seeking government support, subsidy and protectionism, the case being put up by the realty sector is the most disturbing. When the recent economic boom started in 2003, land prices in posh Delhi localities ranged from Rs 40,000 to Rs 60,000 per square yard. Builders’ flats in Gurgaon for middle-income customers were being offered for booking at Rs 2,200-2,500 per square foot, while premium residential developments in South Mumbai came to market at Rs 4,000 per square foot. Office rentals in Gurgaon were at Rs 30-35 per square foot per month while in Mumbai, they hovered around Rs 100 or so. In April 2008, the same prices respectively had shot up to Rs 400,000 per square yard, Rs 6,000 and Rs 28,000 per square foot, and Rs 120 and Rs 400 per square foot per month. While this increase, ranging from 300 per cent to 1,000 per cent, put many Indian developers on the Forbes list of billionaires, it also resulted in the destruction of the primary demand for residential and commercial property from actual users since it became unaffordable and unviable, and brought only speculators to the market. In this situation, the noise from the real estate sector exhorting the government to facilitate reduction in the home loan rates is nothing but a denial of the reality that unless the property prices are scaled back to 2003 (or even 2005) levels — making them affordable/commercially viable for actual users once again — the realty sector will not see a boom again irrespective of the lending rates.<BR/><BR/><I>But alas, will Government listen to this. The short answer is No. In the name of Financial stability, they will reduce interest rates.</I>shaileshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14407031960831830463noreply@blogger.com