tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post8546632133042920213..comments2024-03-28T00:59:01.483-07:00Comments on India's housing bubble: Discussions with a big builder's sales guyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger139125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-66287230884035891172012-01-31T04:29:47.676-08:002012-01-31T04:29:47.676-08:00Very nice post ! Very helpful. Thanks for sharing....Very nice post ! Very helpful. Thanks for sharing.Ankanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12049274861386066556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-70620985731495399182012-01-30T20:05:45.333-08:002012-01-30T20:05:45.333-08:00Thank you for the info. It sounds pretty user frie...Thank you for the info. It sounds pretty user friendly. I guess I’ll pick one up for fun. thank u<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.the-village.in/villas.html" rel="nofollow">Villas in India</a>chethranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07413846258897851708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-58888233101698851672011-12-29T22:09:19.181-08:002011-12-29T22:09:19.181-08:00Interesting story
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.c...Interesting story<br />http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Share-broker-hounded-to-death-by-4-investors/articleshow/11287123.cms<br /><br />4 guys give a broker 13 lakhs and expect it to grow by 20% in 3 months. The broker returns the amount but gets killed becuase he could not generate profits<br /><br />Cant imagine what will happen if the RE bubble bursts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-31310602308800076832011-12-23T12:20:06.177-08:002011-12-23T12:20:06.177-08:00Boss, please refrain from putting the same old Ban...Boss, please refrain from putting the same old Banglore story of yours. It is damn boring yar... The blog is about housing bubble. IF the property is not legal then dont buy it, why are you dying to buy one...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-3902344499852766622011-12-23T07:54:18.503-08:002011-12-23T07:54:18.503-08:00THE ONE AND ONLY ANSWER IS THIS IS PLANNED......RA...THE ONE AND ONLY ANSWER IS THIS IS PLANNED......RAHUL SONIA WANT TO SOLD THE NATION TO WORLD BANK IN NAME OF RECESSION BLA BLA BLA...GOOGLE OUT "NEW WORLD ORDER" YOU WILL UNDERSTAND THE GAME <br /><br />JAGO BHARAT JAGO.....BHARAT MATA KI JAYAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-47298105871139058602011-12-22T20:45:03.218-08:002011-12-22T20:45:03.218-08:00Anon @6:18
You should not be preaching here but b...Anon @6:18<br /><br />You should not be preaching here but buying some more RE and flats for yourself and your relatives since you belive in your theories.<br /><br />I would never buy or buy when prices drop by 50% or more in the coming years. You buy and be happy and I would wait for you to get whacked by you rown family and friends who you advised your BS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-76205028128120773562011-12-22T20:31:38.856-08:002011-12-22T20:31:38.856-08:00@anon 6:18
and yet oecd realty markets have eithe...@anon 6:18<br /><br />and yet oecd realty markets have either <br />collapsed or in process of collapse !<br /><br />i find it amusing that depreciating rupee is repeatedly made out to be cause of the current stagnation / appreciation w.r.t realty<br /><br />One only has to look at the past to disprove this.DingDingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-1834594189529006002011-12-22T18:18:05.126-08:002011-12-22T18:18:05.126-08:00Referring to http://www.firstpost.com/business/don...Referring to http://www.firstpost.com/business/dont-weep-for-realty-we-need-to-unleash-a-lokpal-on-it-162894.html<br /><br />The author does have some valid points though I obviously do not agree with him on everything.<br /><br />Here's 3 reasons RE in India will not crash for the foreseeable future. 10-20% drops do not constitute a crash for an asset that has been appreciating close to 10-20% YoY for the last 6-7 years.<br /><br />- Inflation, INR needs to appreciate significantly so that less rupees buy more real goods (material, power, labor, land) the main variable cost ingredients of built-up RE. The trend has been going in the exact opposite direction with INR depreciating in value.<br /><br />- State owned banks (i.e. major lenders to several projects) can hold property on their books forever without need to liquidate. In US it is a quasi-government agency like Fannie and Freddie. In India there is direct government involvement through these state owned banks. In effect, GOI like many global governments around the world IS the lender of last resort if any builder goes bust.<br /><br />- Political influence. This like the prior point is true for both West and East as well. There is huge political pressure to keep up housing asset values. A housing crash will have a ripple effect on the entire economy and is a sure way for people to feel bummed if not outright revolutionary and vote out the ruling elite. In India it's doubly true since many of these political elite themselves are neck deep in RE dealings.<br /><br /><br />Barring a fundamental change in RE sector (i.e. introducing transparency, removing black money and political meddling) it is highly unlikely for prices to drop significantly in a rigged market. Counterintutive facts on the ground such as "low demand - high prices" is precisely the indicator of such markets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-54490394796700574172011-12-21T21:16:23.023-08:002011-12-21T21:16:23.023-08:00Pawan Ji:
Life is much more than waiting for a cr...Pawan Ji:<br /><br />Life is much more than waiting for a crash to happen. Go out, enjoy, have a good time. You could also be religious, come to my temple and pray to me. But, don't donate any cash or gold, the priests pocket it all. If you feel like doing something for me, go feed an elephant some nice and ripe bananas. So, may be, take your kids to a zoo; to find the elephant.<br /><br />Don't waste your time here. Be happy!Ganpati Bappanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-25444423810457351432011-12-21T21:08:23.892-08:002011-12-21T21:08:23.892-08:00@Ganpati Bappa
doosri koi hobby-sbhbby hai kya aap...@Ganpati Bappa<br /><i>doosri koi hobby-sbhbby hai kya aapki?</i><br /><br />Timely question Bappa. I was thinking about it myself yesterday (down with fever and in bed).<br /><br />I have people in my office who go hiking, cycling, have interests in music, Art of Living, cars etc. Some of these people own homes, some don't. They hand out in the respective online and in-the-real-world communities and seem pretty happy. I was wondering if I am a sucker to spend my time on a RE blog? Damn it! There are so many better things to do in life and I will start doing those things. Let it be my new year resolution!Pawanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03969690253002313371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-67547138558669462452011-12-21T20:16:29.671-08:002011-12-21T20:16:29.671-08:00Crash kaab aayega ji? Doorbell bajake aayega kya? ...<i> Crash kaab aayega ji? Doorbell bajake aayega kya? <br /><br />Aur agar naha aaya to aap sab bhai log khaali time mein kya karoge, doosri koi hobby-sbhbby hai kya aapki? </i>Ganpati Bappanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-24404639313898412312011-12-21T10:07:22.443-08:002011-12-21T10:07:22.443-08:00Like the bears here, the investors can be found he...Like the bears here, the investors can be found <a href="http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/f-bangalore-21.html/" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Amazing that most of the people are 'investors' looking for appreciation and not people wanting to settle in. Is this normal ? Hope these a******* get burnt badly to restore some sanity. <br /><br />Have we never had a real estate crash in India so that people keep repeating the RE can never go down ? Even after seeing what's happened in the US and whats happening in China, this line still gets parroted.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-82274294966088974452011-12-21T09:26:21.948-08:002011-12-21T09:26:21.948-08:00Anon 5:14 PM
You pointed the grim reality of Mumb...Anon 5:14 PM<br /><br />You pointed the grim reality of Mumbai. They say about 60% to 70% population lives in slums. Considering the population of 15 million, you are talking about 10 million in slums. Considering 4 per family, there are 2.5 million families. <br /><br />Governments response to housing issue is amazing. MHADA is supposed build low income housing, and they build few thousands of them. These are given by lottery, which is rigged as you know it. Few thousands can never satisfy 2.5 million requirement.<br /><br />The basic issue is developable land around mumbai. Due to geographic location, Mumbai can not expand in all 4 direction first. On top of that the areas that can be developed are ignored to the fullest. Navi Mumbai was planned in 60's, and no infrastructure was built till 90's. The need is to build 10 Navi Mumbai's today, but what we are building .... Huge Sky bridges across the ocean. Most population don't drive cars to use this bridges and highways. Most take Local trains, where there was no additional lines created in last 60 years. <br /><br />The need today is to build large amount of suburban railway lines connecting distant areas like Virar, Kalyan, Panvel, Alibaug etc... Another need is to provide incentive to business to relocate to faraway places. This would provide much needed affordable places near work. Morons at Government do not understand such basic issue, what kind of planning one can expect....shaileshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14407031960831830463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-56058110241841070752011-12-21T09:00:28.787-08:002011-12-21T09:00:28.787-08:00News for you all
Today's forst page news in C...News for you all<br /><br />Today's forst page news in Chandigarh edition of Hindustan times <br /><br />Property prices to fall by 25-30% in NCR - Mumbai<br /><br />http://epaper.hindustantimes.com/PUBLICATIONS/HT/HC/2011/12/21/ArticleHtmls/PROPERTY-PRICES-MAY-FALL-20-30-BY-MID-21122011001042.shtml?Mode=1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-44117621445424920422011-12-20T20:54:32.624-08:002011-12-20T20:54:32.624-08:00"Owning one's own house is #1 goal and ul..."Owning one's own house is #1 goal and ultimate status symbol. Individual (and families) are likely to suffer through a lot of austerity in other areas before they voluntarily give up on this asset."<br /><br />Didn't the same cultural aspects also exist in China, Singapore and Japan, each of which went through their own housing bubbles?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-33123591067756515402011-12-20T19:53:31.705-08:002011-12-20T19:53:31.705-08:00Anon above:
Once the masses realize that there is...Anon above:<br /><br />Once the masses realize that there is no more appreciation going to happen in RE, they will stop buying. All the investors will become sellers. That means inventory would rise by 40-50%% as more than hat percent people are speculators in RE buying in India. <br /><br />Once the inventory increases, it would out a downward pressure on prices. Even if people who can hold will not sell, the prices would still fall. It is a matter of time but when it happens it happens rapidly. Buyer sentiment becomes seller sentiment.<br /><br />Sell...Sell...sellNRI_In_Troublehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04467120939848369384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-7243890346388061032011-12-20T19:18:44.491-08:002011-12-20T19:18:44.491-08:00What is the policy / law on bankruptcy and foreclo...What is the policy / law on bankruptcy and foreclosures in India?<br /><br />Also, India has a different culture. The individual is backed up by not just his/her income but multi-generational wealth in form of parents/grandparents and even uncles / siblings in some situations stepping in.<br /><br />Not to forget the wink-wink / nod-nod dowry system that is still alive and well.<br /><br />Owning one's own house is #1 goal and ultimate status symbol. Individual (and families) are likely to suffer through a lot of austerity in other areas before they voluntarily give up on this asset.<br /><br />What do you guys think?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-20404151709607940912011-12-20T18:23:55.884-08:002011-12-20T18:23:55.884-08:00Anon above:
It is the affordability that will cau...Anon above:<br /><br />It is the affordability that will cause the crash and not shortage.<br />Once layoffs begin, even salaried people cannot afford these houses. I'm already seeing a big drop in comapnies visiting campuses for recruitment. Layoffs and salary reductions are coming. There is always shortage. See what happens when India is downgraded and no loans are available plus the builders are running around to save their assets.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-80746203340302209122011-12-20T17:14:42.805-08:002011-12-20T17:14:42.805-08:00Here is the story of India -
The demand is calcu...Here is the story of India -<br /> <br />The demand is calculated based on upward mobility and population - but most of the populated classes live in slums or very poor villages with little or no meant to even reach lower middle class - <br /><br />Urban Example - Mumbai look at the satellite picture of Deonar slum<br /><br /><a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?q=19.063355,72.92407&ll=19.064105,72.927139&spn=0.016448,0.01929&num=1&t=h&vpsrc=0&z=16" rel="nofollow"> here </a><br /><br />A quick calculation of the number of rooftops in each square (the slum has about 100 square streets) told me that it has 250*100 hutments - Each hut houses probably 3-5 people so this complex alone houses <br /><br />4*100*250 people i.e 1 lakh people<br /><br /> - there is no way you can build houses for 1 lakh people even if that land is acquired and singaporean condos are built (forget the fact that the people living there are not going to afford buying anyways).<br /><br />We all know the rural example - travel from Delhi to Lucknow - you wont see single shop with a tubelight - they can barely afford a light bulb.<br /><br />The leverage asserted by analysts based on expected growth is all but phony -fastest (quasi) legal path to upward mobility in india has been one of the 3 - join government job that gives you lot of bribe money, go abroad and earn in currency that converts to better rupees OR inherit a business (or open one if you can) and hope that some windfall will bring lots of untaxed wealth. <br /><br />Slum dwelling and rurally impoverished India is never going to achieve either of the 3 with the given infrastructure and crony dysfunctional vote buying government.<br /><br />the insane leverage factors citing fundamentals that the builder mafia used to con investors is going go bust - <br /><br />However I doubt this bust will result in fall in ready to use property - in fact there will continue to be a shortage of it - <br /><br />Land prices instead of falling might exchange hands from one speculator to another to another - its like catching a slow motion knife with little warningAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-23829913159623912942011-12-20T12:36:48.742-08:002011-12-20T12:36:48.742-08:00People fucking dont even look at most common stats...People fucking dont even look at most common stats available to everyone. And somehow think india has no issues.<br /><br />Debt gdp ratio of indian states.<br /><br />http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=13168<br /><br /><br />The basket case of USA, california stats<br />http://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-california-debt-clock.htmljaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-51320628519866807482011-12-20T11:40:16.691-08:002011-12-20T11:40:16.691-08:00So much PE exists and FDI withdrawal from India......So much PE exists and FDI withdrawal from India... where will this money landup in... some bubble somewhere will be formed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-14494623785248233112011-12-20T10:50:30.741-08:002011-12-20T10:50:30.741-08:00Indian Realty to see US$5Bn worth of PE Exits @ ht...Indian Realty to see US$5Bn worth of PE Exits @ http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/india-realty-likely-to-seeto-365-bn-pe-exits2012_636775.html#toptagAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-88750367399854148982011-12-20T09:46:34.524-08:002011-12-20T09:46:34.524-08:00"Are we even sure to believe these numbers - ..."Are we even sure to believe these numbers - "<br /><br />If you are disposed to believe any numbers out of the Indian government, I have a lovely marble palace in Agra I would love to sell you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-65361965804900714162011-12-20T09:41:09.104-08:002011-12-20T09:41:09.104-08:00Skeptic
Thanks for that info.
Are we even sure to...Skeptic<br />Thanks for that info.<br /><br /><i>Are we even sure to believe these numbers - one thing is sure - we Indians have about 1 trillion worth of ugly Gold stashed worn around our necks and wrists</i><br /><br />Hey it's the only guarantee citizens have against a fooling bumbling government. What else is out there? Why would anyone in their right minds buy Indian Govt bonds is beyond comprehension.aam aadminoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19740856.post-66578284391299896412011-12-20T09:25:02.509-08:002011-12-20T09:25:02.509-08:00Looks like Indian Baboo(n)s goofed up its export n...Looks like Indian Baboo(n)s goofed up its export numbers by 9 billion US$<br /><br />http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/government-admits-mistake-in-export-figures/1/163655.html<br /><br />We all know that street inflation is higher than what the Consumer Price Index guys churn out<br /><br />This sets a bad precedent - what if the fiscal deficit numbers are actually much higher? - How much systemic instability does India have that is being hid.<br /><br />This is verbatim from Sonali Ranade's article in the Daily times<br /><br />"India runs an annual current account deficit in goods and services of the order of $ 165 billion. That is roughly 10 percent of its GDP. This deficit is made up by FII inflows of about $ 30 billion, invisibles including labour remittances of about $ 90 billion and FDI of about $ 20 billion. That still leaves a gap of $ 25 billion. In 2011, FII flows have been negative and may remain so for the first half of 2012. FDI flows may be likewise negligible absent reforms. India thus faces $ 55 billion shortfall in inflows on the current account. On the other hand, India has some $ 100 billion of loan servicing obligations in 2012, all to be met out of reserves of some $ 300 billion"<br /><br />Are we even sure to believe these numbers - one thing is sure - we Indians have about 1 trillion worth of ugly Gold stashed worn around our necks and wristsskeptic's ghostnoreply@blogger.com