Showing posts with label housing crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing crash. Show all posts

Monday, October 10, 2011

Quick look at the bubbles elsewhere

As recommended by a commenter in the last article here is some news about property bubbles in emerging markets (also I want users to post new comments here) - most links from the last 2-3 weeks

Property
BRICS other than India


 Non Brics

  
Other bubbles 

    Developed world economy - Lost decade(s) looming



    Fresh bout of gloom and doom. Remember the last time the world was in this rut was in 1937 and it took a world war to come out of it ...

    Gold price over the decades

    USD INR


    Friday, December 18, 2009

    Hyderabad Sinks - Riding the elephant.

    I've never read a more scathing article on the vile nature of Indian politics and its overt and covert nexus between Andhra politicians and their business cronies. Instead of granting contracts to reputed firms, these guys have floated their own business entities to swindle the wealth of the India and AP. No wonder Sonia and others were finding that they were getting too powerful to handle and could rock the politican landscape in the years to come.
    The Hyderabad housing bubble is now officially popped. Buyers can now breathe in peace.
    John Elliot reports
    India’s southern city of Hyderabad is becoming one of India’s most potent symbols of the greed and corruption that link politicians and businessmen. For the third time in a year, the state has been rocked by a crisis that exposes those linkages – this time over whether Andhra Pradesh should be split in two with the creation of a new state of Telangana based around Hyderabad (white area in map below).
    This is a far cry from the glory and international fame of the past 15 or so years when this prosperous capital of the state of Andhra Pradesh became an international symbol of India’s dramatic growth in software, second only to Bangalore as a thriving location for information technology investment. Companies located there include Google and Microsoft, and Bill Clinton visited as US president.

    The first of the state’s crises came a year ago with the collapse of Satyam, a leading Hyderabad-based software company that was owned by the family of its then chairman, Ramalinga Raju. The Rajus were closely linked with various politicians, including the state’s Congress chief minister, Y S Rajasekhar Reddy (YSR), who died in a helicopter crash in September, as well as his predecessor, Chandrababu Naidu. ..
    Here is Bharat Bhusan's article in the Mail Today.






    -->
    Money backs ‘ Son- rise’ in Andhra
    by Bharat Bhushan
    IT HAS been a month since the former Andhra Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhar Reddy ( YSR) died in a helicopter crash.
    The Congress high command has allowed his son, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and his supporters to run riot in this period.
    They paid people whose next of kin died of old age, chronic illness or other causes to say that they had died of shock after learning of YSR’s untimely and tragic death. This number was totted up to nearly 600 with talk of nearly half a dozen “ suicides”. Surprisingly, if the Jaganmohan Reddy run Sakshi TV and newspaper of the same name are to be believed, many of those who died of shock gave a dying declaration that after YSR only his son could continue his propoor policies as chief minister. India has not witnessed such a farce since Independence.
    Today, in Andhra Pradesh, it would seem that there is no other Congress leader than Jaganmohan Reddy, no administration, no governance and a chief minister whose writ does not run over his own council of ministers.
    Ironically, by allowing Jaganmohan Reddy to continue his unseemly blackmail, the Congress high command is transforming the political novice into the political leader that he never was.
    But more of that later. One must first ask how such a political greenhorn enjoys, according to his claims, the support of three- fourths of Andhra MLAs. The answer lies in the changing pattern of political patronage in Andhra Pradesh.
    Time was when Congressmen like others in public life accumulated political capital not only by their propeople initiatives but also through fostering intricate patron- client relationships.
    This entailed appointing supporters to non- elected positions in the party and the government, helping them build their own patronage networks by giving them clear advantages such as access to the state machinery, and funding their election to local bodies, workplace unions, etc. In short, the attempt was to demonstrate to them that there were political advantages to be had by aligning with the party in power.
    Patronage
    Andhra Pradesh seems to be changing that structure of patronage.
    Instead of giving partymen a share in one’s political capital — the more one shared it, the more it grew — the Congress supporters are given a stake in the state’s economic enterprises.
    YSR ushered in this revolution.
    He converted his key supporters into businessmen, industrialists, contractors and realtors. Their loyalty to the party or the leader was based on pure economic interest.
    YSR rewarded them with contracts in state sponsored irrigation projects ( the much- publicised Rs. 130,000 crore “ Jalyagnam” projects), highway projects, real estate activities, development of Special Economic Zones ( SEZs), land grants and housing schemes in urban as well as rural areas. The loyalty of a majority of the 156 Congress MLAs who got tickets in the last assembly elections was secured through such largesse. Some others have benefitted with smooth and quick approvals of their business ventures.
    Those Congressmen who got irrigation project contracts during the YSR regime include MPs T Subbirami Reddy, Kavuri Sambasiva Rao and Rayapati Sambasiva Rao; state ministers Komatireddy Venkat Reddy and P Ramachandra Reddy; and MLA Adala Prabhakar Reddy.
    And these are only the big fish — many other party MLAs like Adinarayana Reddy, Srikanth Reddy, Gurunath Reddy, and A Indrakaran Reddy ( former MLA) are believed to have got smaller irrigation and associated road works contracts.
    Andhra Congress MLAs whose real estate business thrived during YSR’s chief ministerial tenure include ministers Shilpa Mohan Reddy and Jupalli Krishna Rao, who defaulted on payment of crores of rupees to an urban co- operative bank and Lagadapati Rajagopal ( Congress MP from Vijayawada who is building Lanco Hills — the country’s biggest real estate project). Many other Congress leaders like D Sudheer Reddy ( MLA) and Malreddy Ranga Reddy
    ( former MLA) have benefitted from the Rs. 3,000 crore Outer Ring Road project of Hyderabad.
    Nellore MP Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy and his brother Chandramohan Reddy, MLA, have won contracts for roads and building works. K Pratap Reddy, the Treasurer of the Congress, has stakes in the cement industry and is believed to have business links with the YSR family.
    Vijayawada Congress MP Lagapati Rajagopal is believed by many to be the biggest beneficiary of the YSR regime and is involved in businesses ranging from power, iron castings, real estate and infrastructure.
    In short, it is difficult to find a Congressman of any consequence in Andhra who has not benefitted from the largesse of the state government.
    Several businessmen, industrialists, realtors and contractors who are not directly in politics — some cutting across political lines like the Karnataka BJP minister and mine lord G Janardhan Reddy of Bellary who was given 10,700 acres of land in Anantapur — are all worried about their projects in various stages of development. They have a right to be worried.
    Family
    Businesses which are underwritten and steered by someone at the helm of the state are less likely to fail. They were failsafe investments. Now their future is suddenly uncertain.
    It has taken decades for Indian entrepreneurs like the Tatas, Birlas, Ambanis and Bajajs to convert family businesses into billion dollar corporations.
    The Congress party under YSR in Andhra showed us that this could be done in barely five years.
    The YSR family’s market capitalisation is estimated to be nearly three- fourths of the annual budget of Andhra Pradesh which is around Rs 1,00,000 crore. The family enterprises and business interests spread across real estate ( Silicon Builders, Classic Realty, Bhagvath Sannidhi Estates), infrastructure ( Silicon Infrastructure, Shalom Infrastructure, Marvel Infrastructure, Janani Infrastructure, Athena Infra, Viz Projects), cement ( Bharathi Cement), chemicals ( Pulivendula Polymers), plantations ( Forest Plantations India Ltd), power generation ( Athena Energy, Athena Kakinada Power, Sainz Hydro), newspapers ( Jagati Publications) and television ( Indira Television) besides owning Carmel Asia Holdings Pvt. Ltd.
    The formidable business empire that YSR and his son set up has stakeholders among those who are in politics and business in Andhra today. The future of their investments depends on having a constant gardener from the YSR family to tend their interests. They cannot afford to let Jaganmohan Reddy lose out in the chief ministerial sweepstakes.
    Indulgence
    It is difficult to understand on the other hand why the Congress high command is so indulgent towards Jaganmohan’s shenanigans. Does the party have good reason to allow the mess that Jaganmohan Reddy’s supporters are creating in Andhra Pradesh? YSR was very close to Rajiv Gandhi who appointed him the state Congress chief at the relatively young age of 35 years. Sonia Gandhi has always valued loyalty to her late husband.
    More importantly, YSR also delivered politically — not once but in two consecutive assembly and Lok Sabha elections. There would have been no UPA I or II without the electoral outcome of Andhra adding muscle to the Congress.
    Another speculation doing the rounds is that the Congress high command is reluctant to act quickly against Jaganmohan Reddy because YSR was also believed to be one of the largest funders of the party.
    Those sources of funds are now controlled by his son. So instead of cutting him to size, the party is being indulgent. Why else would the party allow speculation about Jaganmohan Reddy being offered Deputy Chief Ministership or a place in the central council of ministers? Could it be on the other hand that Jaganmohan Reddy is being allowed to demonstrate the support he enjoys in order to nurse his image as a mass leader? There could well be a strategy to allow the demonstration of support and soon people will forget that YSR’s son is a political novice. The blatant hooliganism of his supporters seems to have scuttled his chances to fill YSR’s shoes immediately. However, this will not prevent his well- wishers from claiming that YSR Junior has come into his own as a political leader with a mass base. This would pave the way for his accommodation in the party or the government.
    bharat.bhushan@ mailtoday.in

    Monday, December 07, 2009

    Emaar shares plunge as UAE markets tumble

    Looks like all the High net investors (HNI's) investors are going to soon be HNS (High net suckers). Emaar tried hard to raise funds in early 2008 but due to the US market crash, the Indian market went soft. Now the sand shifted under their own feet. I wonder how Indian regulators like SEBI and all the Indian stock brokering underwriters didn't flinch a bit examining the Emaar books. It goes to show rigged the Indian stock market is. The Reliance power script is still trading at 145, far from the peak it reached from the IPO. Investors in India have to be super careful. Trust no one should be the Ekam Sat when it comes to Indian markets. As far as Shah Rukh goes, he can entertain the Sheiks this new year and make up for his losses in the Dubai market. What happens to the poor suckers who lost their shirt and cannot shake a leg ?


    Emaar shares plunge as UAE markets tumble AFP/File – A view of Dubai's Marina area shows high-rise buildings being built by Emaar. Shares in Dubai's …


    by W.G. Dunlop W.g. Dunlop – 2 hrs 33 mins ago

    DUBAI (AFP) – Shares in Dubai's giant property developer Emaar dropped the maximum-allowed 10 percent on Monday as stocks in the United Arab Emirates took a fresh tumble over Dubai's debt woes.

    The Dubai exchange slumped 5.84 percent and Abu Dhabi's market dropped 1.68 percent, after both on Sunday had recovered some of the heavy losses they sustained last week.

    Emaar, developer of the world's tallest building, Burj Dubai, led the downward charge on the Dubai Financial Market. Emaar shares dropped the maximum 10 percent.

    The company's shares had closed 3.55 percent up on Sunday, following heavy losses last week.

    By its close the DFM had settled at 1,744.83 points, a day after a rise of 1.18 percent, to 1,853.13 points.

    The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange dropped to 2,628.24 points at the close of trading on Monday, a day after having closed up a hefty 3.89 percent at 2,673.12 points.

    Wadah Taha, chief investment officer at the Dubai-based Zarooni Group, attributed the continued troubles in the two exchanges to the lack of information on developments regarding the debt-laden Dubai World conglomerate.

    "I think the fear is still there, the fear which affects the market sentiment and investor psychology," Taha said.

    "The main fear today is due to the meeting between Nakheel and its creditors," he said. Nakheel, which is part of Dubai World, is reportedly to meet with its creditors this week to discuss rescheduling its debts.

    There is also a lack of clarity regarding which banks and companies are exposed to Dubai World, Taha said.

    "The picture needs to be more clear, more transparency is required," he said. "The volatility of both markets will remain high unless we deal with the issue of transparency."

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's exchange fell slightly on Monday, closing down 0.99 percent. Its TASI index closed 0.33 percent up on Sunday at 6,309.05 points, but fell to 6,246.50 points by its close on Monday.

    The Kuwaiti stock market was likewise down, closing 0.79-percent lower, at 6,678.9 points, while Bahrain's small exchange dropped slightly, closing at minus 0.07 percent.

    Bucking the trend, Qatar and Oman's stock markets were up on Monday.

    Qatar's exchange rose 1.06 percent, closing at 7,132.26 points, while Oman's market went up 0.32 percent, to close at 6,302.170 points.

    Both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets suffered heavy losses last week over Dubai's debt troubles. The Dubai index plunged 12.5 percent over a two-day trading period, while Abu Dhabi's slumped 11.6 percent.

    The sharp falls came after Dubai on November 25 requested a freeze of payments on the debt of its largest conglomerate, Dubai World, which is liable for 59 billion dollars.

    The request raised fears of a debt default by Dubai and sent jitters through global financial markets. The emirate's debts are estimated to total at least 80 billion dollars, with some estimates as high as 120 billion dollars.

    On Monday, Dubai department of finance head Abdulrahman al-Saleh said Dubai World could sell some of its assets in the United Arab Emirates and abroad to strengthen its financial situation.

    "The sale of assets is a normal measure to strengthen the group's financial situation in these circumstances," Saleh said in an interview with Al-Jazeera television.

    He also reiterated the Dubai government does not guarantee Dubai World's debts, but said the "Dubai Financial Support Fund," which he chairs, "has helped companies affected by the financial crisis, including Dubai World."

    Saturday, November 28, 2009

    Dubai World Crisis Vs US Housing Crisis - Layman's Analysis














    (Image courtesy - Wikimedia foundation )

    I think this is the following layman's assessment

    US Crisis Model -

    1) Government Pushes Expansion of Housing as it sits on huge surplus/potential surplus. Keeps interest rates low for borrowers

    2) Lenders fresh with bulk funds from investors and low interests push both consumers and constructors. (initially follow all regulations) Steady growth in prices of property

    3) Once responsible borrowers have bought houses/property - Greedy Investors, Greedier Realtors push prices higher - and entice borrowers with poor credit history to buy houses. Investments Banks bet on these borrowers defaulting through Credit Default Swaps and Collateralize Debt obligations

    4) At the tip of the bubble (mid 2006), the frenzy of buying starts faltering with the irresponsible borrowers (who bought in the 90s) start defaulting. As homeowner defaults increase, demand slumps due to lack of growth in economy, flood of cheap foreclosures in the market push down prices.

    5) Even good houses and responsible borrowers start feeling pain as bad borrowers brought down all real estate asset prices. (with many of them also either forsaking the house or short selling for a loss)
    - this results in IBs and insurance cos to forcefully pay the CDS and CDO - making them insolvent.- BAIL OUT BAIL OUT


    BOTTOM LINE for US market
    Borrowers (end users who bought houses) started defaulting because they owed banks more money than the value of the house.


    Dubai Crisis Model -

    1) Government of Dubai entity/organizations plan grandiose development for the city.
    They evaluate the scope and possible returns and borrow money from investors to construct projects via contractors. The entity backs it up saying never decreasing oil prices will make Dubai a productive hub. So the valuation of property is based on increasing oil prices.
    Update1 - Someone corrected me saying Dubai does not have oil, but the other emirates do! So Dubai just projected its potential based on the neighbors riches :)

    2) Initially some sales of these projects pick up due to marketing etc. But once the credit crunch hits western world potential buyers start declining. Oil prices tumble to a point where Dubai can no longer fund projects with oil money (which it does not have - but was promised by neighboring emirates), so it steps up borrowing hoping for recovery.

    3) With no buyers, and stagnant prices, there is no scope of paying back the borrowed investment money to the lenders by the Dubai world, etc entity. Dubai asks for 6 months moratorium on payments.
    Companies are worried that even after 6 months, the huge amount of unoccupied real estate in Dubai will simply remain in present stagnant state. (Dubai govt/Dubai World cannot reduce prices as it will cause a downward spiral just like USA and cause present occupiers to forsake their places as nearby locations will become dirt cheap - at the same time, tight money supply is not bringing in new investors to buy Dubai property at current prices)

    4) Renegotiation of Debt fails - and the Entity cries default ...


    BOTTOMLINE - Dubai
    In this type of crisis, there is no end user or home occupier/office lessee involved - the Debt of the constructing entity itself causes the default mess.

    There are fears that Malaysia, Shanghai and of course Mumbai are having exact same models of construction - where some entity entices investors and promises huge returns and later finds out no one wants to buy whatever was built.

    I am not an expert at all this but is my assessment correct?
    Where is India's bubble position wrt these 2 scenarios - all thoughts appreciated

    - Outcomes -
    1. Global Commercial Real Estate crash - Ruled out - Emerging market Commercial Crash ??
    2. Gulf Government Bailout on Oil Bonds - Abu Dhabi is unwilling as the UAE is not really United :P
    3. Collapse in oil prices due to surplus from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran - Keep checking oil futures
    4. Definite yes - cost of insuring against default by High debt nations like Ireland, Bulgaria, Greece, skyrockets

    दुबई = डूब-गई

    Wednesday, April 22, 2009

    Wall Street bankers in rage

    NYMag has an excellent article on life after the crash for Wall St bankers. This is one of the best articles I've read on this topic and the comments are even better as they truly reflect the public's mood towards the wailing bankers.
    >>

    Tuesday, March 10, 2009

    Prices down 50% in Gurgaon

    Livemint has an article on the crash of housing in the Delhi-NCR region. Not all builders are created equal and Unitech/DLF and Pasvanath seem to have taken the cake in the bad press they have seen over the past six months. This scenario will be repeated in every city where over money seem to have vanished for houses priced for over 50L. The sweet spot for now is between 25-45L. I think the rapid increases in salaries, combined with the low interest rates pumped up housing rates beyond affordability. People with soaring stock market portfolios leveraged loans for large houses. With everything unwinding, the highly priced properties are unwinding as well.
    LiveMint reports
    New Delhi / Bangalore: When he bought the four-bedroom apartment in Unitech Grande on the outskirts of New Delhi 22 months ago, the hefty price tag of Rs2.75 crore didn’t deter him. The economy was humming, the markets surging and nothing, it seemed, could go wrong.

    Billed as India’s first ultra-luxury residential project, Unitech Grande promised a Greg Norman-designed golf course and luxury trappings, including a dozen theme gardens, an integrated sports complex and world-class health care, shopping and entertainment facilities.
    The price of the apartment, promised for delivery in September 2010, has now dropped by about half to Rs3,500 per sq. ft, said the 37-year-old buyer, who didn’t want to be identified by his name or profession.
    “I can’t even sell the property because of the erosion in value. I will lose money if I sell now,” he says, adding that he is fretful the project will be delayed because “not even a hole has been dug in the ground” at the site in Noida since he purchased the apartment.
    His predicament illustrates the plight of homebuyers who bought apartments and houses at the peak of the property cycle after prices had surged 30% year-on-year during 2005-07. Those properties are worth half the price they paid after the economy and, with it, the real estate market, went into a tailspin last year.

    Monday, February 16, 2009

    20,000 defaulters to lose homes

    Here is another video where Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses the crisis hitting the US and consequently the world. Officially Japan is in depression. Just as Lehman was leveraged 30:1, I expect the builders to have similar leverage. Financial wizadry aside, we now turn to psycology for answers.

    Source Deccan Chronicle 17/Feb/2009
    Around 20,000 houses in the twin cities are to be auctioned after borrowers defaulted on home loan payments. This is the first time that so many houses are being put up for auction. Many of the borrowers are IT employees who were unable to pay the equated monthly instalments because of the current slowdown in the software industry. Several techies who took loans have lost their jobs and others were forced to accept salary cuts making it difficult for them to meet their financial commitments.

    Apart from techies, there are many employees in the aviation sector too who are unable to pay their EMIs. Banks are in a piquant situa tion since borrowers have not hurried to pay their EMIs despite the threat of the auction.

    In fact, they are willing for the auction as they are not in a position to mobilise resources. The borrowers have no option but to forego the amount that they have invested may come to around 20 per cent of the property value. Banks which provided 80 per cent amount as loan fear that they may not get the amount even if they auction the properties. “There is no option for banks except to dispose the properties when the borrowers are reluctant to clear the dues,” said the IDBI director, Mr K. Narasimha Murthy. “More auctions will be held in the next few months since many borrowers are yet to receive final notices from banks.”

    Wednesday, January 07, 2009

    Slumdog Billionaire - Truth be told

    "The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones," Raju said in his letter. "I am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and face consequences thereof."


    If there is someone who knows to tell a dramatic story, it is B. Raju. Thanks to Anon for the post where the Satyam CEO announced in painless detail the Satya(m) of the balance sheet. Satyam as most employees will attest is a sweat shop. Employees in the US work ridiculous hours and get peanuts for all their efforts. I'm not sure how employees in India are treated. It goes without saying that Satyams's customers will switch to other outsourcing companies and I wont be surprised with US based companies get the right to choose customers as opposed to the India big three. It also looks like we can easily see a layoff of 50% of the workforce in Satyam. What happens to all the mortgages which have been sunk into Hyderabad real estate ? As we saw the stock market took a beating down 750 points, Satyam investors have been wiped out. This is just beginning to get ugly. Maytas and Satyam will be remembered as Worldcom and Enron. The last straw which broke the market's back. Wonder how many more books are cooked by Indian management. The auditors are a joke. God save outsourcing.


    Here is good analysis on how the books were cooked.

    Here is Raju's candid letter to the SEC. Without regret or remorse, the criminal has bankrupted the company he has founded and will bring Hyderabad to its knees.

    Monday, December 22, 2008

    Get Real : Times of India editorial

    The newspaper which prints "Property Times" and subtly promotes real estate bulders through carefully planted advertorials is now playing to the public sentiment. Alas we know TOI is the wolf in the lamb's clothing. As soon as prices drop 10% they will be back with articles promoting how people are lapping up properties by the dozens. Whether it is in god-forsaken places is another matter. What they care about is advertisements from builders. In a city of 20 Million like Mumbai, if 200 people buy an apt in Khandeshwar, Karjat or Panvel, far flung exhurbs in Mumbai it makes front page news. So much for the grand old lady of the Bori Bunder.

    Real estate is one boom-gone-bust that's proving hard to tackle. At the government's prodding, public sector banks recently offered concessional
    interest rates on new home loans up to Rs 5 lakh and between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 20 lakh. This was welcome, save that discretionary lending could still thwart loan aspirants. Also, the rates weren't retrospective, giving existing borrowers cause to grumble. As a palliative, the government appealed for lower floating interest rates. Its efforts paid off. State Bank of India, the country's largest bank, is to offer cheaper loans. Earlier, HDFC, India's largest private mortgage player, announced cuts in home loan rates for both new and existing borrowers. ICICI also hinted at reductions. So the soft rate trend is emerging in major private loan disbursing institutions as well. Reportedly, other realty-boosters under the government's consideration are an external commercial borrowing window, a service tax cut and rationalisation of stamp duty on property deals.

    Realtors must accept that their big margin-driven boom-time is over for now. Much of their woes are their own doing. They overbuilt assets, riding on a bubble. With depressed demand, they continued to expect unrealistic profit margins. And now they're resisting top-end price corrections. Inflated asset prices are such that even the moneyed are sweating over purchases in tier-I and tier-II cities. Shifting gear from luxury and high-end to mid-level and affordable housing is required. Demand for low-cost housing is massively unmet; the potential for investment here goes beyond the context of today's economic downturn. India's young demographic profile, rapid urbanisation and high savings rate can keep propping up the property market. But housing prices in some segments need to fall by as much as 30 per cent to match affordability.

    However, difficult bank financing can hobble low-cost housing projects. Banks need to ease lending, for which they may have to lower deposit rates. Further rate cuts from the RBI would help. Also, apart from builders' pricing, the issue of artificial land shortage keeping prices up needs addressing. Some of realty's demands converting short-term bank loans to long term and rate cuts on home loans of all categories have grounds. Others are mad-hatter expectations, such as wanting a government buyout of unsold assets at current market rates. Realtors have sensibly refrained from formally soliciting any such morally hazardous bailout.

    The health of real estate has strong macroeconomic multiplier effects, both in terms of contribution to GDP and employment generation. The more the sector is stimulated, the faster India's economic turnaround will be. The real estate sector has to get real about the changed market environment, doing itself, consumers and the economy a favour.

    Thursday, December 18, 2008

    Bangalore: Builders Gasp while Buyers Wait with Bated Breath

    Bangalore: Builders Gasp while Buyers Wait with Bated Breath
    Sharath S. Srivatsa / The Hindu

    * Discounts and freebies fail to work for the real estate sector which finds itself grounded by the economic downturn
    * Developers are removing extra amenities to bring down the project cost
    * Cancellation of bookings has gone up drastically in the recent months

    BANGALORE, Dec 17: The real estate sector in Bangalore, affected by the recession, is in a dreadful situation.

    A sector that was riding high on the economic boom till recently finds itself grounded by the economic slump.

    This has left a large number of developers in the lurch even as customers wait with bated breath for the completion of projects.

    The sudden downturn in the last three months has not only forced developers to postpone the launch of new projects, but also delay those under construction. The gap between demand and supply has widened as sales have come down in the last six months, and especially so from September.

    “Let alone new launches, it will take a long time for the developers to clear the glut in the market. It will take a minimum of one year for the industry to overcome the slowdown even after measures have been initiated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Union Government,” an industry insider said.

    Removing extras


    In an effort to attract buyers, the developers are re-positioning the price by removing extra amenities to bring down the project cost. Though developers are offering discounts up to 10 per cent on the projects, some big companies, burdened with huge overheads, are struggling to bring down the rate.

    A few developers are also offering plots along with a housing unit, an unusual move in an industry that has become price-sensitive.

    Though figures on the number of unsold flats are hard to come by as no surveys have been taken up by the industry, sources estimate they run in tens of thousands. When the IT sector was bullish, the north-east, east and south-east parts of the city witnessed large-scale development — residential, office and retail — especially in K.R. Puram, Marathahalli and Sarjapur, as well as Bannerghatta Road, Kanakapura Road, J.P. Nagar and Jayanagar.

    While the tightening money flow has hit the industry badly, analysts say the downward trend started with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) increasing the risk weightage for the real estate sector a few months ago.

    “The high risk weightage to real estate sector essentially meant cut-down on lending to the sector — both to developers and buyers, by the lending agencies,” said T. Venkatesh Babu, Senior Manager-Market Research at Nitesh Estates.

    “Funds to the sector are choked as both developer and buyer found it difficult to secure loans. Several families have also postponed purchases due to the uncertain future. This has contributed to reduced sales, affecting project funding.”

    Private lenders


    With an estimated Rs. 2,000 crore locked up in the Bangalore market, many developers are scrambling to service their debts even as lending institutions have started recovering the loans. “Already some developers have defaulted on their loans; many have borrowed from private money lenders at exorbitant rates ranging between 24 and 36 per cent as they were unable to get institutional loan,” said M. Ramesh, Secretary of Builders’ Association of India –Karnataka.

    He said that the plight of developers is so bad many of them have not only pledged their projects but also their residences to ensure completion of projects.

    “An industry that believes time as the essence of any contract, schedules are not being adhered to even by big players,” Mr. Ramesh added.

    Buyers too


    While the builders found it extremely difficult to secure funding for their projects, many prospective buyers have failed to secure funding from the financial institutions and banks. “Cancellation of bookings has gone up drastically in the recent months.

    These are mainly due to the fact that the buyer, who had already booked the flat by paying 10 per cent advance, does not get the desired funding from the banks,” confirmed a marketing executive of another leading real estate company.

    In many cases, the executive said, the delay in completion of projects has caused anxiety among the customers.

    “This is the case, especially among those who have bought flats from small builders, and are not sure when the project would be completed.”

    According to secretary of Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI) - Karnataka S. Suresh Hari, “Genuine buyers have been affected by lack of availability of loans. The high taxation rate in Karnataka — close to 34 per cent — has also become a deterrent.”

    The industry is hoping that the measures implemented by the RBI and Union Government will improve their fortunes by March.

    If the sector does not begin to look up by then, the consequences may be disastrous.

    Tuesday, November 25, 2008

    The Sound Of Crashing Real Estate (Goldman Sachs)

    Ex_Realtor,
    You mentioned that you were recently laid off from a big construction house. What is your experience like for working for these folks ? What are the inside secrets which you could share for the benefit of all readers.
    Vik.
    Goldman Sachs
    India: The Sound Of Crashing Real Estate India's property market is poised for a deep correction. This will bring on sizeable knock down effects, with India GDP expect to slide down to a growth of 5.8 per cent in FY10. We estimate prices may need to fall by up to 30% from current levels, with significant knock on effects on the economy.

    In particular, it will slow construction activity, which directly accounts for 7.3% of GDP, but has sector linkages which we estimate to be 14% of GDP.
    After India's last housing bust in 1996, real property prices fell some 40% over three years, negatively affecting consumption and investment demand.

    Mitigating factors-favorable demographics, low mortgage penetration, ongoing infrastructure demand.
    India's property market is poised for a deep correction. Property prices have risen dramatically over the past three years, supply exceeds demand in most geographies, and affordability lags prices. Our India Real Estate Team believes that residential property prices in some geographies may need to fall by up to 30% from current levels for affordability to catch up. As elsewhere globally, we think this will have negative effects on the economy.

    The imminent slowdown in construction activity can potentially have a big impact on the economy. By using an input-output matrix, we estimate that although the sector directly accounts for 7.3% of GDP, its backward linkages in terms of the sector's usage of iron, steel, cement etc., and forward linkages to other sectors, impacts an estimated 14% of GDP.
    Therefore, a slowdown in the construction sector can potentially have large knock-on effects on the economy.
    From the demand side, a property downturn, we think, will have negative effects on consumption and investment. As housing forms the largest component of household wealth, consumer demand will be impacted. The fall in collateral will also hurt firms' balance sheets, increase their funding costs, hurt confidence, and reduce investment demand. However,
    the impact on demand will be lower than in developed countries.

    Lessons from previous housing busts suggest that they tend to be prolonged episodes with considerable macro consequences. After India's last housing bust in 1996, real property prices fell some 40% over three years, and did not recover to their previous peaks for a decade.

    Consumption and investment demand were both negatively affected, and growth slowed from an average of 6.8% in the four years prior to the bust to 5.4% in the four years after it. Typically, housing busts in OECD countries have lasted six years with a 30% decline in prices and substantial negative implications for the economy.

    Mitigating factors, such as India's favorable demographics, low mortgage penetration, falling interest rates, and ongoing infrastructure demand, in our view, will keep the property downturn from being protracted. However, we believe a sharp slowdown is imminent. We therefore remain negative on the real estate sector, and its supplier industries such as cement, iron, and steel, and reiterate our below consensus estimate of
    5.8% GDP growth in FY10.

    Safe Harbor Statement:
    Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations,
    tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

    Thursday, November 20, 2008

    Fear and Deflation in Vegas

    Life comes full circle and the anti-matter version of Fear and Loathing in Vegas is rearing its ugly head. Steel is down 75% per ton, cement is down lows never seen. Stocks like ACC and Tata Steel blue chip Tata companies are getting cheaper by the minute and the center piece of action, DLF and Unitech the darlings of the real estate industry are down 90-95% from all time highs. What does all this data fortell ? To the brokers and the touts of the real estate industry they still are calling for a 8% cut (Sobha in Bangalore ) or another stupid builder who is giving an apt in Mira road free if you buy a super inflated apartment in Santa Cruz. With IICI bank and HDFC bank down 70% banks are in deep trouble. They will be very worried about Non performing assets and will be very reluctant to lend at over priced properties. They also would like their current borroweers to pay thru the teeth to compensate for the NPA's. Looking all around there is doom an gloom. I wonder what the trolls on this blog think.

    Tuesday, November 18, 2008

    Land dealings hit by global recession’

    Looks like the finance minister and the minister in Pune are looking are different set of numbers. Here Mr Pawar is calling for a deep recession and the FM is saying that India will not be affected. The FM needs to dig his head out of the sand and quit. He has wrecked havoc in the construction industry by fuelling the bubble and now is denying its existence. Today he exorted Autos, airlines and reatly companies to drop rates of their products, and ofcourse the banks too, they have to drop their interest rates ? What does all of this translate too ? A slowdown of profits for some and deepening losses for others like airlines.

    The article below mentions about townships being in trouble. In Pune we have Amanora, Lavasa, Blueridge whose investors will see their mirage's last longer then half a decade.

    TIMES NEWS NETWORK reports

    Pune: The global recession has hit township projects and land dealings in and around the city, affecting it dearly, Pune guardian minister, Ajit Pawar, said on Monday. Addressing a meeting of the NCP workers, Pawar said, “The global recession is witnessing a local impact. Township projects around the city are largely affected due to the economic meltdown. Only few days ago, Pune and Raigad districts were leading in land deal transactions. Today, there are hardly any transactions happening.”
    The state has already increased the FSI (ratio of permissible built-up area to plot area) for townships from 0.5 to 1. “But these townships are in deep trouble due to the crisis,” Pawar said.
    He added that as per projections by Indian economists and political leaders, the recession will continue for a long time. “It’s time to reorganise resources and plan things,” Pawar said.
    Mayor Rajlaxmi Bhosale in her speech admitted that the civic body was also facing financial crisis.
    “However, the crisis can be attributed to the mammoth development works carried out by the PMC in one year. The PMC has developed infrastructure worth Rs 1,000 crore in a single year. The civic body has also contributed its share to the JNNURM funds. We have provided citizens with world class facilities on the occasion of the Commonwealth Youth Games and that has put some pressure on the municipal corporation,” Bhosale said.
    Bhosale said though there are others taking credits for the successful completion of the Games, it was the civic body that created the infrastructure, with the state and Central government providing the funds and Sharad Pawar playing an important role in the process.” She said in the last one and half years after the NCP came to power, various development works have been implemented.

    Friday, October 31, 2008

    Loan defaulters rights

    What a change of headlines in the Economic times. From buy before you get priced out, to "How do you pay the loan on the property you thought was going to double ?" . Ofcourse the black money operators don't have to worry ;)

    Defaulted on home loan? Be aware of your rights

    MUMBAI: Almost every home loan borrower has this niggling fear: What if I default? Higher interest rates could hit those with floating rate home loans, triggering a rise in defaults.

    A loan, which could be comfortably serviced at an 8% floating interest rate could cause substantial discomfort after the rates rise to around 12%.

    For some, it could even lead to a problem in repayment. This scary scenario isn’t all that rare. According to rating agency Crisil’s forecast, the share of bad loans is likely to swell to 4% of banks’ total loans in the next two years.

    In case of a default, it is best to approach the lender for an amicable settlement. If all the efforts undertaken for repayment fail, the lender is likely to take over and sell the mortgaged property.

    No doubt, it is very painful to let go of your prized possession, which you may have acquired with your lifetime’s savings. However, in such circumstances, borrowers need to keep an eye on their rights, which provide adequate opportunity to repay.

    As regulated entities, there are certain limits that banks cannot cross. For instance, RBI guidelines do not allow a lender to repossess without proper notice.

    The central bank also has norms that are taken into consideration under specific circumstances. There is a well-laid out procedure for taking possession of the security, provisions regarding a final chance to repay and a procedure for sale. These are in addition to the strict guidelines for recovery agents.

    Usually, banks invoke the provisions of Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interests (Sarfaesi) Act for a quick recovery. This involves a 60-day notice period. But the Act states that such a notice cannot be issued until the borrower’s account is classified as a non-performing asset; that is, when it is 90 days overdue.

    “If the borrower fails to repay even after the notice period, the bank can go ahead with the sale. However, in order to sell, the bank has to serve another 30-day notice mentioning the sale,” Abhay Debt Counselling Centre debt counselling head VN Kulkarni said.

    Further, if your mortgaged home has to be sold, the bank has to publish a notice regarding the same in two leading newspapers specifying the reserve price. The sale has to be a private treaty sale, based on conditions mutually agreed upon by the bank and the borrower.

    “If you feel the property is undervalued, you can raise an objection. However, in case the auction is done through the court, an independent valuer is appointed for carrying out the valuation,” said Poorvi Chothani, proprietor of law firm LawQuest. “You can even sell your own house in order to repay the loan.

    Monday, October 27, 2008

    Real estate presses panic button in Mysore

    MYSORE: When Bangalore sneezes, Mysore catches a cold, says a veteran developer borrowing a popular cliché.

    He is referring to the sudden fall in property demand in Mysore. After Bangalore, Mysore has been the most attractive real estate investment venue for the moneyed Mumbaikars and Bangaloreans.

    Despite claims to the contrary, Mysore realtors suddenly find themselves in an unenviable situation. The value of the sites and apartments, according to reliable sources within the industry, has come down by 15 - 20 per cent in just about three weeks.

    Mysore has, in the recent past, been drawing investors in droves from within and outside the states after property prices of Bangalore had hit the roof. Even the "neo-rich" IT personnel found Bangalore property scalding. There then took place a race for prime plots in the nearest "Heritage City." In terms of 'quality of life' such as greenery, good roads and less crowd, Mysore beat Bangalore and the big players like Sobha Developers, Brigade Group and Leo Builders made Mysore their home.

    Sources with Mysore Chapter of Builders' Association of India (BAI) told DNA the enquiries for apartments and luxury villas have gone down by 30 per cent since October second week. This has left them wondering what was happening. Have they made a miscalculation or is it a temporary slump, nobody really know.

    Pradeep, a real estate dealer who has been in the business for the last two decades says, "Mysore never saw the kind of demand it witnessed in the last few years. Sites were sold before they hit the advertising board, just five years ago.
    Plot after plot, even in suburbs, was blocked by potential builders who wanted to cash in on the growth. But the fall in demand taking place in the past few weeks is alarming."

    Sub-registrar's office which otherwise used to be doing brisk business with 8 to10 registrations a day, now has just one or two," he said. This, he points out is despite this being a festive season when people planned major investments.

    "Last year this time, registrations touched an all time high with an average 30 a day." said a lady clerk working at sub-registrar's office.

    According to BAI sources, the situation was aggravated by many factors, besides the psychological slump. Nagesh, who has been working closely with BAI says, "When land was earmarked for SEZ near Mysore, industries rejoiced. But, the power scarcity proved a big blow. Slow progress of infrastructure development and political instability added to the woes. It was thought, Mysore, which had earned a major chunk of funds up to Rs 1,800 Cr under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) would wean away many big real estate players from metros. An airport was also thrown in to woo investments. But, nothing seems working.

    Now, Mysore has turned into an investor's nightmare with sharp decline in prices at the peak of the season. Apartments or luxury villas find no takers," Nagesh adds.

    The nearby Hassan district, which too witnessed a similar growth as Mysore in the recent years has also witnessed a fall in demand and consequent prices.

    Developers seem indeed perplexed at the situation. Apart from announcing lollipops and hoping that situation would improve, they are devoid of any fresh ideas.

    "We have announced attractive plans and packages with great returns. We just hope the markets will get better," Nagesh says.

    The upshot of it all is that realtors are unwilling to climb down, and investors are equally vehement. The result is stalemate.

    Experts speak : All is not lost

    A 90% drop in real estate stock market values is now a reality. Moneycontrol.com has list of current stock price and its annual performance. All we need now is a price reduction in selling prices, not gimmcks like free car, free flat or free plots. We are not stupid guys. How long will it take for you to realize this ?
    Expertspeak: All's not lost
    27 Oct, 2008, 0000 hrs IST, ET Bureau
    Every cloud has a silver lining if seen from the perspective of equity analysts. Forget the fact that the Sensex has dropped 70% and many stocks dropped 90%, the experts are trying to reason and assure the investors that all is not lost. Ofcourse all is not lost. A 10L portfolio is still worth 2L even today, but as the Unitech chariman said on CNBC, they have not reduced housing prices, inspite of borrowing at 2.5 per month from legal sources. Many builders are borrowing at 3-5% per month. How can they recoup their losses when the buyers have vanished from their 1cr+ properties. The end is near as far as the housing bubble is concerned. Stock prices are a leading indicator of the days ahead. The housing companies used absurd metrics to value their property and investors lapped onto their lofty projections, some due to greed others due to ignorance.

    MUMBAI: Chin up when the chips are down. The climbing fear index (43 during the 1929 Great Depression and 75 in October 2008), is more disturbing
    than the slipping Sensitive Index. It took a good two-and-a-half hours and four of the country’s best stock market analysts to reassure an 800-strong audience of Mumbai investors on Thursday that all’s not lost. Every dip brings in a new buying opportunity was the message.

    The Economic Times, Gujarati, last week kicked off its latest initiative “Managing Financial Turbulence” by bringing the fourth edition of “Sensex Ni Sangathe” (In Tune With Sensex), a popular series of investor camps, to Mumbai. Eminent stock market experts Nilesh Shah, joint MD, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, Nipun Mehta, ED of Society General India Private Banking, CS Nanda, CCM, financial market investors protection committee, ICAI and Madhusudan Kela, head of equity investments, Reliance Capital Asset Management, reaffirmed their faith in the India growth story. The meet was jointly organised by ET (Gujarati) and ICAI, Western India Regional Council, at Bhaidas Hall in Vile Parle on October 23.

    What they said...

    Forced liquidation is happening in the market. Fear (among investors) is at the highest level. This is the worst situation in the past 100 years and so an overnight recovery is not on the cards. While the Indian economy is growing at 6.5-7.5%, the world is already talking of a negative growth rate of 0.5% and 1.5%.

    Madhusudan Kela
    Head of equity investments, Reliance Capital Asset Management

    There are some good developments which the market has ignored. This year, we had an average monsoon, Indo-US nuclear deal is now a reality, we received FDI worth $10 billion during the past two quarters, crude oil prices have fallen and inflation is expected to ease out in the coming days. It is just a matter of time when FIIs will be forced to back the winning horse (India).

    Nilesh Shah
    Joint MD, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

    Prices are indeed attractive. It’s like the latest McDonald ad campaign ‘Aap ke Jamaane mein, baap ke jamaane ke daam’. Lot of Indian global acquisitions happened at peak prices, and now fund raising has become difficult for these companies. Still, impact on the Indian economy will be limited. Investors need to have a longer time-horizon and take a fresh look at their portfolio holdings.

    Thursday, October 23, 2008

    Dark Diwali: Pink slips, pay cuts await realty staff

    Observer,
    Here is the post following up on your comment about the reality layoffs. Some of your other comments have some good advice which I will collate and post as a new article.
    For Anil and other realty touts, this is the writing on the wall. Your jobs are no more secure then the IT/ITES folks, so better tighten your purse strings.
    Also regarding the comment regarding the plot which Anil bought for Rs 150 in Pune and then later sold for Rs 5800 is pure BS. Baner-Pashan apts were at Rs 1800 3 years ago and now they are Rs 3300. So cut the crap and try selling the Taj Mahal to somebody else.
    NEW DELHI: It’s not going to be a happy Diwali for people working in the real estate industry. Even as sales failed to pick up this festive season, most realty firms including DLF, Unitech, Omaxe, Parsvnath and BPTP, now plan to lay off staff in significant numbers soon after Diwali.
    While spokespersons of all these companies denied there were plans to cut jobs or salaries, executives in these companies told ET that job cuts were in the offing and salaries have been delayed in some of these companies.

    “All real estate players, including us, will have to reduce manpower cost significantly if we are to survive in the current hostile market conditions,” says a top executive at a Delhi-based listed mid-size realty firm, which plans to reduce manpower by almost 20%. The job cuts will start happening soon after Diwali.

    Executives at many other real estate firms also confirmed companies plan to offload people and a list of staff was being prepared, who would be asked to leave soon after the festive season was over. Developers are waiting for Diwali as they didn’t want to dampen sentiments further.
    “Job cuts at Jet Airways became a big issue also because it was done before Diwali. Developers are wary of raking up any political controversy,” explained a senior executive.
    Also, realty firms needed large number of sales staff for the festive season. But now that their price discounts or other freebies have failed to stimulate the home market, developers feel they can cut back on staff. The developers have already started easing off some staff. Many developers, including DLF, had already asked around a few hundred employees to leave.
    And sources say more job cuts are in the offing at DLF, as construction pace slows and expansion plans are put on hold. Unitech, Omaxe, Parsvnath and BPTP too prepare to issue pink slips.
    Salaries have been delayed at many mid-size and small realty firms, even as management is asking employees to take salary cut. Even though he denies salaries are being delayed or cut at his company, Parsvnath chairman Pradeep Jain supports the idea of salary cut.
    “Employees’ salaries have risen so much in the past few years that I see no harm in reducing it a bit,” says Mr Jain.
    “Salaries at the top management level have already started to come down. A number of real estate players are already renegotiating salaries with staff so that overall wage bill comes down and not many jobs are lost. Companies are preferring to retain the jobs of those capable of multi-tasking,” said Executive Access MD Ronesh Puri.
    Employees at most real estate firms are in a state of panic as job loss fears mount. Too many resumes have been floating around in the market. “Earlier it was extremely difficult for a smaller developer like us to hire talent. Now we are flooded with CVs. Surely, people are being fired somewhere else,” says Ambience group chairman Raj Singh Gehlot.

    Tuesday, October 21, 2008

    Time reports on the Indian realty meltdown

    I guess to all the ostriches, this article is one more nail in the coffin. Drop prices 30-40% or go bankrupt, seems to the mantra come Janurary. The only hope is the centuries old tradition of praying to Goddess Lakshmi for wealth and prosperity. In the Indian secnario, the developers who are leveraged to the hilt are the sub-prime of India.

    Mirroring the US, India's Real Estate Sector Melts Down
    By Madhur Singh / New Delhi Monday, Oct. 20, 2008
    The new moon of the lunar month of Kartika marks Diwali, the Indian festival of lights, when Hindus across the country worship the goddess of wealth, Lakshmi. But divinities know full well the laws that govern finance and Lakshmi may not be a little tight-fisted about circulating her riches amid the ongoing global credit crunch.
    Indian tradition decrees that it is auspicious to make purchases during the days leading up to Diwali — which falls in October or November. With faith meshing so effortlessly with commerce, the season sees sellers, advertisers and marketers urging the devout to spend money with a religious fervor, hawking everything from chocolates and consumer durables to gold and houses. Buying a home is considered especially propitious. What better way to welcome the goddess of wealth into one's life than by inviting Lakshmi into one's new abode? So much so that the period from just before Diwali through March is usually a bonanza for the real estate industry: usually 70% of the annual business is conducted at this time.
    Not this year. With just about a week to go until Diwali, the mood is decidedly downbeat. The demon of impending economic doom refuses to die, and as tightened liquidity makes people put off larger purchases, the real estate sector is facing the worst attack. "This time last year, I was selling 10 to 12 properties every day," says Alok Gupta, who runs Advanced Real Estate in the New Delhi suburb of Noida. "This time, I haven't sold a single property all month!"
    Considered the barometer of economic growth, the real estate sector in India has grown 30% to 35% during the last five years, reflecting the rapidly-increasing demand for office, commercial and industrial space, as well as bigger homes now considered within the range of India's prospering working classes. But the economic juggernaut has been slowing since earlier this year due to double-digit inflation, a severe liquidity crunch as a fallout of the U.S. sub-prime crisis, and now, the possibility of economic activity shrinking as part of a global slowdown. The country's growth estimates of 9% at the beginning of the year have been revised to well below 7%, and the effect is directly visible on the realty sector. "No one's buying any more," says Ashwani Shukla of New Delhi-based Triveni Associates, "Two years ago, 25-year-olds earning fat pay packets from [multinational corporations] were buying high-end apartments. Now, there are no takers for flats selling at 20% markdowns. Estate agents are finding it difficult to even meet daily overheads."
    Shukla himself has branched out of real estate and started selling insurance six months back, "to pay the bills." According to various estimates, sales in cities like Mumbai and Chennai are down 30% to 40%. Hoping to induce buyers at Diwali, realtors are advertising cash discounts of 5% to 10% for down payments, and as much as 25% discounts if buyers are willing to wait two to three years before taking possession of the property. "But there is no liquidity with the end user," says Arvind Nandan, director of consultancy at real-estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield India, "Home-loan rates have hit the roof, and people's investments have lost value at the stock market. No one has the money to buy."
    Shukla says if the situation does not improve, there could be distress sales within the next six months. The realty sector was heading for a cyclical slowdown even before the current economic slump. Over the last few years, increasing demand had pushed up prices, with speculators jumping in to further inflate the market. Eventually inventory piled up when buyers refused to pay unrealistically high prices. "So many transactions were taking place between speculators and investors that no one bothered to find out what the end-user, the family who would eventually live in the house, would be willing and able to pay," Shukla says. And those prospective home owners are the biggest target of India's real estate industry: almost 80% of real estate developed in the country is residential space.
    This all comes at the worst possible time. Even as buyers refused to bite, inflation passed into double digits in June this year, raising prices of construction material. Realtors overran their budgets and projects stalled, leaving skeletal structures dotting the landscape across big and small cities all over the country. Then came the liquidity squeeze as the government sponged away cash from the system to control inflation. Home loan rates went from about 7% to over 12%. People who bought struggled to pay, and potential buyers kept away.
    Realtors like Shukla and Gupta may have little reason to light firecrackers this Diwali, but their prayers to Lakshmi, the Goddess of Wealth, will definitely be more fervent, especially as experts predict things will get worse before they get any better. "This was a much-needed correction," says Nandan of Cushman & Wakefield India, "And it isn't complete yet. I expect the market to go down further, and it's hard to say when the recovery will begin."
    Yet, no one is entirely pessimistic. Experts and industry insiders believe once the storm blows over, demand is bound to rise back up for the same reasons it did last time — a large, young workforce; gradual but consistent liberalization reforms; and a high rate of consumer and private sector savings. "The silver lining is that once this phase ends, land and property prices will be corrected to rational levels, speculators will be out, and the sector will have stronger fundamentals," says Shukla. If everyone's prayers go right, the goddess will eventually be propitiated and her blessings will issue forth once more.

    Friday, October 17, 2008

    Revisiting the first post of this blog

    Rewiding almost 3 years into the past, I found my original post. Most of the observations made then have been vindicated by the turn of events. Three years later, the stock market is up 10% and looks very likely to go below 9k in the following weeks, thereby wiping gains for 3 years. The FII's have taken the Indian investor for a ride down a a tunnel of hell. As everyone reads the bad news, I'm thinking of what could be good prices to pay for apts in the year ahead ? Anything over 3000 is steep by any standards. Black money can chase other black money, however loans are in short supply so they cannot chase other loans. If a black money operator buys an apt paying 1cr, immediately the Income Tax folks will get alerted and will be on his case. The only place where they can hide money is to buy land/plots where there is a substantial portion in black. As state governments keep raising gudiance value, this avenue is closing as well. In Chennai the guidance of OMR road is up 10 times over the past 3 years. Hence speculation here attracts the Income tax bugs. The only avenue black money folks have is to fund builders, however given the state of the loan market, they will be unwilling to do so. The goal of every black money operator is to convert the black to white, but as avenues for the conversion evaporate due to increasing risk, storing black money under the matteress or in hidden cabinets seems to the only way. Any builder who is looking for money is paying 30% interest, this used to be the case in 2003. So the market is dull, people have lost money in the market upto 80% in many cases. How long can 10000 per sq/ft hold ?
    and I just got this in the mail and couldn't come at a better time. A drop of 40% from the existing rates, However to take the risk of execution during a time of financial crisis is foolhardy. We will see these prices for ready to occupy apts soon.

    Doesn't come better than Luxury at Affordable Prices that too in Mumbai . Window2India property services presents you with a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy your very own luxury home at affordable prices in the fastest growing region of Greater Mumbai, Thane.
    Why you should buy now!!
    Exclusive pre-launch township project spread over 55 acres
    Lowest prices – more than 20% lower than other on-going projects in the same area
    One of the top developers in Mumbai; builders of the tallest residential tower in India
    Phased payment schedule over the next 2.5 years
    Current prices within 3 kilometers of township: Rs.5,000 – Rs.6,000 per sq foot
    The Offer*
    Exclusive Pre-Launch offer for TimesofMoney customers ONLY! - Rs.3,600 per square foot. Booking Amount- Rs. 54,000/- only!
    * Limited period only
    Key Highlights
    Located centrally between Thane and the western suburbs – Ghodbunder Road
    Spread over a sprawling 55 acres
    Breathtaking views of Ulhas river and Yeoor hills
    90% of the entire space open and dedicated to natural preserves
    World Class amenities like Split AC in all rooms/ Laminated wooden flooring in Bedrooms/ Vaastu compliant layout/Hilltop clubhouse with majestic views/ Internal transport facility are just to name a few
    Wide range of apartments- 2 Bedroom, 2 Bedroom + Study, 3 Bedroom and 3 Bedroom Large (Exclusive Tower)
    2.5 Kms from Hiranandani Estates; approximate selling price Rs.6, 000 per sq


    Friday, December 09, 2005
    Asset Bubble or not ?
    As the Indian economy grew by 8% as stated by the finance minster(12/9/2005), the sensex hit an all time high of 9057 and housing prices have continued to skyrocket in major metro areas.

    One of the worrisome aspects of this growth is that low interest rates have helped companies in BIFR(chapter 11 for India) to come back with healthy balance sheets specifically due to debt-refinancing. (18% to 11%). The productivity growth or job growth is not wholly responsible for the growth. Also many of these restructured companies might pay themselves dividends or buy back shares thereby increasing the wealth of the directors, and owners and thus balloning the stock market beyond fundamental basis.

    The white collar worker has to deal with the consequences of this semi-illusionary growth in the form of increasing property prices (10-20% year-over-year) and is borrowing heavily thanks to low interest rates.

    As property prices push higher, the risk of default of these small apt buyers increases as global interest rates rise, energy prices push higher , inflation increases and the rupee devalues as the external debt mounts rapidly

    Most Indians in the market for a apartment now have never experienced a downturn in the economy so they might find themselves highly shafted if they over-leverage themselves on the loans as well as the floating interest rates.

    Unfortunately unlike the developed west , India has no reliable source of data available for real estate prices and transactions and most prices are rigged by a cartel of builders. I'm also skeptical of the media in reporting the truth since they too dont have any reliable data to go from and finally real estate agents, the less said about them the better.

    This blog attempts to understand area development and price movements and if people contribute uncover hidden unsold inventory. I'll post information about Mumbai/Pune/Bangalore over which I can get anecdotal evidence or as I browse the news papers and talk to real-estate agents and builders. All articles and comments are welcome. I'll be the moderator of the comments so that the spammers dont take over.

    This blog is inspired from a similar blog http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/ which is now a reliable source of data for various US housing markets.

    Sunday, August 12, 2007

    50% crash in Florida

    I think India will soon experience the worst in the days to come. Speculators and flippers will be the first to go bust