I wish someone in India can compile coverage of the moronic analysts on CNBC India.
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Detailed Analysis on Indian Real Estate - From Edelweis & CreditSuisse
Key points from the report are ;
* Volumes are closely linked with GDP growth and real returns on properties
but share a weak relation with interest rates
*Down cycles in real estate cycles tend to give up their entire gains (in real terms) of the
preceding up move.
*Implications for Indian real estate – an additional correction of 35%
* Impact on Indian developers:
-Negative real returns on property are likely to drive property investors to exit holdings,
keeping prices under pressure, keeping large project launches by developers at bay
- Developer volumes and sales are likely to remain highly subdued over an extended period
of time and debt servicing will get increasingly onerous for developers
* Capitulation, though delayed, is likely to return to haunt the sector
* Volume recovery is likely after GDP recovery with a 1-2 year lag
http://0301.netclime.net/1_5/285/2f0/21c/Real%20Estate%20-%20sector%20update-Feb-09-EDEL.pdf
I am not saying the market is going to behave as exactly stated in the report; good to know the trend across many geographies. People should understand that real estate (particularly in India where no professional cos., data, regulation) can not be treated(speculated) like securities.Its just a redistribution of capital from one hand to another; essentially zero sum game.
If anyone who worked in the IT/Finance for the last 5 years and saved money conservatively like the old generation; they need not worry about any recession/lay off and would be able to survive for more than 10 years in any medium size town. Because of the delusion and madness; all the capital flowed from US/UK/Europe finally ended up on the hands of politicians.
* Volumes are closely linked with GDP growth and real returns on properties
but share a weak relation with interest rates
*Down cycles in real estate cycles tend to give up their entire gains (in real terms) of the
preceding up move.
*Implications for Indian real estate – an additional correction of 35%
* Impact on Indian developers:
-Negative real returns on property are likely to drive property investors to exit holdings,
keeping prices under pressure, keeping large project launches by developers at bay
- Developer volumes and sales are likely to remain highly subdued over an extended period
of time and debt servicing will get increasingly onerous for developers
* Capitulation, though delayed, is likely to return to haunt the sector
* Volume recovery is likely after GDP recovery with a 1-2 year lag
http://0301.netclime.net/1_5/285/2f0/21c/Real%20Estate%20-%20sector%20update-Feb-09-EDEL.pdf
I am not saying the market is going to behave as exactly stated in the report; good to know the trend across many geographies. People should understand that real estate (particularly in India where no professional cos., data, regulation) can not be treated(speculated) like securities.Its just a redistribution of capital from one hand to another; essentially zero sum game.
If anyone who worked in the IT/Finance for the last 5 years and saved money conservatively like the old generation; they need not worry about any recession/lay off and would be able to survive for more than 10 years in any medium size town. Because of the delusion and madness; all the capital flowed from US/UK/Europe finally ended up on the hands of politicians.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Builders default and some offer Rent to buy + Swiss Banks
Pune apartments developer offers sale plan to tenants
Livemint reports
The campaign, branded ‘Rent Today and Own Tomorrow’, invites potential buyers to rent apartments of their choice on 11-month contracts, with the option of buying the apartment anytime during this time
Sudha Menon
Pune: A Pune-based developer may have a solution—at least temporary—for the hundreds of realty firms faced with dwindling demand for homes: Rent out apartments and hard-sell a purchase option to the tenants.
Mont Vert Homes has kicked off a ‘Rent Today and Own Tomorrow’ campaign, inviting potential buyers to rent apartments of their choice on 11-month contracts, with the option of buying the flat anytime in the interim.
“Paying rent hurts and is often considered a waste of money, so what we are telling our customer is that once he decides to buy the apartment, we adjust the rent paid towards the down payment for the house. That way, he has not lost the rent amount,” said Manish Kaneria, director of Mont Vert Homes.
Buyers under pressure as builders begin to default
Some small developers are yet to start on their projects; buyers are asking these firms to return booking amount
Shabana Hussain
New Delhi: It is more than two years since Kamal Sachdeva and brother Harish booked villas in Faridabad, an industrial area south of New Delhi that is fast becoming a housing destination, with Pal Infrastructure and Developers Pvt. Ltd.
Sachadeva made a down payment of Rs3.5 lakh and was promised possession of a 1,200 sq. ft house built on a 1,350 sq. ft plot by the end of 2007. He says not only has he not yet received possession of the property, construction has not started since he made his booking in February 2007.
Some four months ago, Sachdeva, a finance professional with a New Delhi automobile company, asked Pal about the progress at the project. Pal informed him, he says, that it did not have the land for the project proposed to come up at Sector 78 of Faridabad.
“I want my investment back but the company says it will only give me a six-month post-dated cheque at an 8% rate of interest. Earlier, they had said they will give a 12% rate of interest,” says he. “I don’t want post-dated cheques because I have heard the company’s cheques are bouncing.
Livemint reports
The campaign, branded ‘Rent Today and Own Tomorrow’, invites potential buyers to rent apartments of their choice on 11-month contracts, with the option of buying the apartment anytime during this time
Sudha Menon
Pune: A Pune-based developer may have a solution—at least temporary—for the hundreds of realty firms faced with dwindling demand for homes: Rent out apartments and hard-sell a purchase option to the tenants.
Mont Vert Homes has kicked off a ‘Rent Today and Own Tomorrow’ campaign, inviting potential buyers to rent apartments of their choice on 11-month contracts, with the option of buying the flat anytime in the interim.
“Paying rent hurts and is often considered a waste of money, so what we are telling our customer is that once he decides to buy the apartment, we adjust the rent paid towards the down payment for the house. That way, he has not lost the rent amount,” said Manish Kaneria, director of Mont Vert Homes.
Buyers under pressure as builders begin to default
Some small developers are yet to start on their projects; buyers are asking these firms to return booking amount
Shabana Hussain
New Delhi: It is more than two years since Kamal Sachdeva and brother Harish booked villas in Faridabad, an industrial area south of New Delhi that is fast becoming a housing destination, with Pal Infrastructure and Developers Pvt. Ltd.
Sachadeva made a down payment of Rs3.5 lakh and was promised possession of a 1,200 sq. ft house built on a 1,350 sq. ft plot by the end of 2007. He says not only has he not yet received possession of the property, construction has not started since he made his booking in February 2007.
Some four months ago, Sachdeva, a finance professional with a New Delhi automobile company, asked Pal about the progress at the project. Pal informed him, he says, that it did not have the land for the project proposed to come up at Sector 78 of Faridabad.
“I want my investment back but the company says it will only give me a six-month post-dated cheque at an 8% rate of interest. Earlier, they had said they will give a 12% rate of interest,” says he. “I don’t want post-dated cheques because I have heard the company’s cheques are bouncing.
Swiss Banks reports on DNAIndia.com
Kudos to the author for raising the important issue. As everyone knows,Indian politicians are the ones to lose the most, if their names are made public. Who will bell the cat ??
Under pressure from federal authorities, Swiss bank UBS is closing the hidden offshore accounts of its well-heeled American clients, potentially allowing their secrets to spill into the open.
In a step that would have once been unthinkable in the rarefied world of Swiss banking, UBS will shut about 19,000 accounts that prosecutors suspect have gone undeclared to the Internal Revenue Service. UBS will transfer the assets to other banks or other divisions within UBS, or will mail checks directly to the account holders, creating paper trails for federal prosecutors who are examining whether UBS clients used such accounts to evade taxes.
The clients now face stark choices: They can cash their checks, and thereby alert the authorities to any potential wrongdoing, or not cash them, effectively losing their money. Or they can transfer the money to new banks, a procedure which, in the case of foreign banks, requires depositors of more than $10,000 to report the new account to the Treasury Department.
UBS, the largest banking institution from Switzerland, has also committed to provide names of the top 250 persons who have kept money in offshore accounts, out of 19,000, to US authorities. UBS has also committed to pay a fine of $780 million to settle claims that it has defrauded US Internal Revenue Service.
The original charges are that the UBS offshore accounts have helped Americans hide $18 billion in 19,000 accounts. But now, the US state department is compelling it to disclose about 52,000 American accounts kept with UBS.
Swiss authorities used to argue that if there is no criminality under Swiss laws (which do not recognise currency violations and tax evasion as offences) the information on offshore accounts could not be divulged.
The same position was taken in Bofors case also. Now that wall has been breached by this US agreement with Swiss authorities.
UBS, the world's largest private bank, also said that it would stop offering to American clients offshore private banking services that are not declared to the IRS.
In all these discussions, one critical aspect is not to be missed -- the wealth hoarded by Indian leaders in commerce/ politics/ military/ arts, etc in the foreign banks for the last five to six decades.
A recent development makes us alert to our own wealth stored abroad.
Liechtenstein is a country as well as a convenient "letter box" for moneyed people all over the world to hide their ill gotten wealth. Its crown prince, Alois von und Zu Liechtenstein, is angry with Germany for launching a massive tax-evasion investigation involving funds hidden away in his countries vaults. Germany's intelligence agency seems to have paid an unnamed informer more than USD 6 million for confidential and secret data about clients of LTG group a bank owned by the Prince's family. The revelations have already led to the resignation of the head of Deutsche Post - the former German mail service -the world's largest logistics company in the world.
The German foreign intelligent agency BND seem to have got more than 700 clients of the LTG bank and the German prosecutors are using this information to target hundreds of suspected tax evaders in the last few days. In the meantime LTG claims that the "stolen data' contain information about 1400 clients and only 600 of them are Germans.
The German government has announced that it would share information on accounts held in the tax haven with any government that wants it, for free.
Intriguingly, Indian government was silent on this issue and did not approach the German government for a long time for a look into that data. Later, it wrote a cursory letter under pressure from Opposition but has not disclosed the response of the German government.
It is common knowledge that trillions of dollars of Indian money is in various tax heavens like Antigua, Switzerland, Bahamas, Liechtenstein, Isle of Man, and St Kitts, etc.
Throughout the Nehruvian socialistic period, under-invoicing of exports and over-invoicing of imports was very common. Along with that, substantial portion of external earnings were siphoned off to these tax heavens. In a socialistic way, all leaders, be they from business, politics, film, sports or bureaucracy, participated in creating what we may call secular wealth cutting across caste and creed. Also, good portion of the defence commissions were settled abroad. Plus some of our bureaucrats and entertainers and artists have also accumulated wealth abroad. This lobby is well-entrenched and one of the main losers in the appreciation of the rupee.
Worst part of the story is the loss of these deposits to Swiss banks themselves up on the death of some of these depositors who have not passed on the relevant account information to their progeny.
The Swiss banks appropriate such sums after some years (seven to ten) after the death of the beneficiary if there are no claimants.
These are operated using codes but most of them require passport and its number as a proof. That is the reason one finds some persons travelling to Switzerland with all expired passports. Zurich is the only European town which has Hindi slogans written on the side of its trams. Of course it is supposedly linked to Bollywood, but the India traffic to Zurich has to be seen to be believed.
It is estimated that between $500 billion and $1,400 billion is hoarded in Swiss banks and add with that the money stashed in territories like Virgin islands and Bahamas and other assorted tax havens. We need to take steps to bring it back to India. The mechanics can be worked out in terms of amnesty and Swiss bonds issued against these dollars. It can tremendously boost our foreign exchange reserves and facilitate infrastructure investment.
To start with, we can add one column in our election affidavits regarding wealth accumulated abroad. Of course, the politicians are not going to declare the ill-gotten wealth. But, it may be useful for future regarding provision of false affidavits. The entire tax efforts of countries like India are subverted by these deposits.
The second and most important issue pertains to financing of terrorism. These secretive and non-transparent tax heavens can be a serious threat to India since the sources and uses of funds are not clear. The lesser the transparency, the greater the threat for civil societies. From that point also, it is imperative for us to get these vaults open.
The third point is that this should become a major issue in World trade and financial negotiations since what belongs to us cannot be denied to us for long. The entire issue of global financial flows and cross-country free flows become meaningless due to the presence of these tax heavens. Indian lead will shake the world and help large number of African and Latino countries.
Already, the Polit Bureau of CPI [M] has asked for government action in the light of the UBS developments.
Baba Ramdev, too, has demanded that politicians take steps to bring back the money.
It may be difficult to expect the major parties to take it up since the hands of many of its leaders are stained with rust and dust of Swiss bank vaults.
In the case of Bofors, it was the government of the day versus the opposition parties, and now it has to be a mass movement against all these tainted leaders. The citizens of India should fight to uphold the values of our republic which is not just a market or museum piece but a living civilisation wounded by colonialists and looted by current thanedars ruling the roost in the corridors of power. If the leaders keep quiet on this burning issue, we can conclude the elite of the country has failed us. Of course, the DDM (Desi Dork Media) - both electronic and print - will be campaigning to "fill up pubs' in the name of freedom- rather than any serious issue. Our media has become just entertainers and not interested in any important issue.
Let us remember that past history suggests that the elite of India failed India and not the ordinary farmers or workers. The elite helped in the plunder and devastation caused to this country.
The thunderous silence of our elite in politics/ media/ business/ bureaucracy and arts speaks volumes about our collective guilt.
"No criminals" in politics is a good campaign. But can we have leaders with funds stashed abroad? The black money abroad is the Gangotri of all crimes. It shows our distrust about our mother land and contempt for Dharma. Let us deal with that first.
The writer is professor of finance and control, Indian Institute of Management - Bangalore, and can be reached at vaidya@iimb.ernet.in. Views are personal.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Bringing down the house
DLF Chennai buyers have shown how group activism can cause builders to buckle to their knees. Developers have been milking the buyer for too long with overnight double digit price increases. It is time they get paid back in their own coin. I particularly like the line
"It is an unfortunate situation in which buyers are going back on a signed contract,” a senior representative of the developers’ association said. If customers take unfair advantage of the market situation then they would have to face the consequences of the breach of contract"
If the market was still in the bullish phase, developers would care less and cancel lower priced bookings and resell at a higher price. We need a lawyer to clarify what is a breach of contract ? What happens if someone cannot make payments due to job loss ? The Hindu has to be commended for its quality reporting.
Bring down prices or else….’
"It is an unfortunate situation in which buyers are going back on a signed contract,” a senior representative of the developers’ association said. If customers take unfair advantage of the market situation then they would have to face the consequences of the breach of contract"
If the market was still in the bullish phase, developers would care less and cancel lower priced bookings and resell at a higher price. We need a lawyer to clarify what is a breach of contract ? What happens if someone cannot make payments due to job loss ? The Hindu has to be commended for its quality reporting.
Bring down prices or else….’
A worrisome trend developers are facing is of buyers wanting to pull out of a contract after construction has started.
Breach of contract fears.
R. Balaji
“During two decades of our doing business in Chennai never have buyers wanted to cancel after a contract was finalised and construction started,” says Mr R.V. Shekar, Managing Director, Lancor Holdings.
A leading developer in Chennai , Lancor Holdings is among those feeling the heat of a slow market in the form of buyers trying to back out of a deal midway.
Breach of contract
Earlier, the company has accommodated buyers who wanted to back out because of personal or professional problems. But now Mr Shekar says it is the ease with which customers are considering a `breach of contract.’ Their demand is: Bring down prices or else… they threaten to walk out and take others. And these are people who have signed on the dotted line and made more than one initial payment.
As of now it is not a major issue for Lancor but is certainly worrisome. Developers and buyers may end up spending time and money on litigation, says Mr Shekar.
For instance, at a Lancor project on NH 45 where over 230 of the 640 apartments planned have been sold, all the approvals are in place and work has started. Over 150 buyers have signed the agreement and the property has been registered for 58 more customers. But about 30 buyers want to back out even after making a firm commitment, he says.
The reason: if one developer cuts down on prices why cannot another?
Mr Shekar has explained to the customers the rationale behind the pricing — basic price of Rs 2,100 and an all-inclusive (covered car park, registration, club membership, taxes) price of Rs 2,640 but some are in no mood to listen.
When there is a proper contract in place and the company is keeping to its commitment, the law will have to take its course, he feels.
Lancor is among the victims of the fallout of DLF Homes’ controversy where a large group of buyers have come together to enforce a price cut. An unprecedented event in Chennai that has grabbed wide attention. Leading builders dismiss the DLF issue as an aberration. But if it sets off a trend then they would have to depend on the judicial system to come to their aid, they say.
According to representatives of the Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India-Tamil Nadu, developers are now keen on having an arbitrator in place. Next week the association hopes to empanel an independent body headed by a senior advocate to look into buyer-seller disputes. “It is an unfortunate situation in which buyers are going back on a signed contract,” a senior representative of the developers’ association said. If customers take unfair advantage of the market situation then they would have to face the consequences of the breach of contract.
‘Time delay’
According to Mr Chitty Babu, Chairman and Managing Director, Akshya Homes, a developer who has delivered over 600 apartments on the OMR , the problem is partly due to the delay in statutory approvals and due to builders and buyers transacting unapproved projects.
A major factor is the time delay when the customer makes the initial payment in an unapproved project. When there is a long wait customers develop cold feet. If approvals come on time, the banks clear the loan and start sanctioning funds and the customers will be fully committed. Fast approvals will save nearly a fifth of the project cost for the customer, he says.
A Bill Maher video on the how badly F**** the US economy is
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert B. Cialdini
I would like to share book that I read recently. We can exactly know how these weapons were effectively used by RE companies & brokers so far.
This book is psychological research on factors that influenced us to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ at various events /situations that normally occur in everyone’s life but we really would not see the outcome or results of our response when we committed. Robert B. Cialdini is professor of psychology at Arizona State University. This book is his life time research on people’s behaviors and he took various roles during his research as door to door salesman, marketing guy and PR agent etc.
Author talks about the ‘weapons of influence’ that normally enterprises and other people use for their gain over the society which means the normal public. Prof. Cialdini found six common traits of people that influence an individual to make any decision.
Reciprocation – Based on the widespread human culture and evolution, the rule requires that one has to try to repay what another person has provided by means of any service/gain. Not repaying is considered as rude or uncivilized in our society. Free food samples at malls and stores.
Commitment and Consistency – It is easier to resist at the beginning than at the end – Da Vinci. It is always our desire to move with the society, colleagues, friends or relatives on making decisions or on deciding lifestyle. We all like to get approvals from the above mentioned social set up. I know many people who signed on the dotted line for the word of a marketing guy ‘just sign we will take care of it, don’t worry’ for their investments, mortgages just because others did so; dared to ask questions.
Social Proof - This is about how a person likes the society to view his actions; this comes of out his skepticism about other people’s reaction. When he is not sure about the action he would tend to follow the predecessor. This is an easy experiment for us who live in India. Next time you come across a beggar at a temple, train or bus stop; people normally look for a predecessor. Try for once the role of predecessor and see the results.
Liking – People tend to say ‘yes’ to individual they know and like well. There are three main factors for this behavior. Physical Beauty – This halo effect makes people to yes. Similarity – We like people like us by appearance or behavior etc. Increased Familiarity – Repeated contact or information about a thing. (Advertisements, stock recos.) Why are we spending so much time and money on some of the bakwaas movies of Bachans, Khans and Rajinikanth though we know already? (No offense meant)
Authority – This is very simple to understand. We will do whatever our boss says with “I will take care of it, don’t worry’. Individual will not stand up and say ‘no’ even if he knows something is wrong. You might have read a lot in newspapers these days about 'Satyam'
Scarcity – Another simple one to quote an example under current scenario. You might be seeing lot of advertisements from real estate developers, car companies and banks with a limited time offer “Only for next three days” or “Pre Launch Discount – Very few flats”. Cool that’s it.
I read and watched Cialdini talking about this; I can go on writing about this book. I have listed only main 6 items and there many examples & other weapons detailed in the book. Get a copy if you want to overcome or positively use these 'weapons of influence'
Thanks Vik for giving the oppurtunity.
This book is psychological research on factors that influenced us to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ at various events /situations that normally occur in everyone’s life but we really would not see the outcome or results of our response when we committed. Robert B. Cialdini is professor of psychology at Arizona State University. This book is his life time research on people’s behaviors and he took various roles during his research as door to door salesman, marketing guy and PR agent etc.
Author talks about the ‘weapons of influence’ that normally enterprises and other people use for their gain over the society which means the normal public. Prof. Cialdini found six common traits of people that influence an individual to make any decision.
Reciprocation – Based on the widespread human culture and evolution, the rule requires that one has to try to repay what another person has provided by means of any service/gain. Not repaying is considered as rude or uncivilized in our society. Free food samples at malls and stores.
Commitment and Consistency – It is easier to resist at the beginning than at the end – Da Vinci. It is always our desire to move with the society, colleagues, friends or relatives on making decisions or on deciding lifestyle. We all like to get approvals from the above mentioned social set up. I know many people who signed on the dotted line for the word of a marketing guy ‘just sign we will take care of it, don’t worry’ for their investments, mortgages just because others did so; dared to ask questions.
Social Proof - This is about how a person likes the society to view his actions; this comes of out his skepticism about other people’s reaction. When he is not sure about the action he would tend to follow the predecessor. This is an easy experiment for us who live in India. Next time you come across a beggar at a temple, train or bus stop; people normally look for a predecessor. Try for once the role of predecessor and see the results.
Liking – People tend to say ‘yes’ to individual they know and like well. There are three main factors for this behavior. Physical Beauty – This halo effect makes people to yes. Similarity – We like people like us by appearance or behavior etc. Increased Familiarity – Repeated contact or information about a thing. (Advertisements, stock recos.) Why are we spending so much time and money on some of the bakwaas movies of Bachans, Khans and Rajinikanth though we know already? (No offense meant)
Authority – This is very simple to understand. We will do whatever our boss says with “I will take care of it, don’t worry’. Individual will not stand up and say ‘no’ even if he knows something is wrong. You might have read a lot in newspapers these days about 'Satyam'
Scarcity – Another simple one to quote an example under current scenario. You might be seeing lot of advertisements from real estate developers, car companies and banks with a limited time offer “Only for next three days” or “Pre Launch Discount – Very few flats”. Cool that’s it.
I read and watched Cialdini talking about this; I can go on writing about this book. I have listed only main 6 items and there many examples & other weapons detailed in the book. Get a copy if you want to overcome or positively use these 'weapons of influence'
Thanks Vik for giving the oppurtunity.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Unscrupulous real estate brokers will cheat you
The Hindu reports
Some go strictly by an unwritten code. They can be called honest brokers
Middlemen, or brokers as they are called, are found in almost all major business deals today. They advertise the sale, educate the client and broker the deal by functioning as a go-between.
It is in the property business that they are thriving. However, many believe that honesty does not always pay in brokering. That is, perhaps, why some real-estate middlemen become rich overnight. Their wealth often makes the buyer and the seller grow suspicious. But their capabilities in brokering and striking deals find little parallel.
They usually come as glib talkers. Their payment is fixed, often as a percentage of the sale value. In most property deals, brokers get two to four per cent of the total value as commission. Some go strictly by this unwritten code. They can be called honest brokers.
But there are others who do not care for the commission. Their aim is to strike the deal at any cost. And, often, they play an unconscionable game in achieving that end.
Desperate sellers
Their victims are usually desperate sellers. If you want to sell your property somehow, better beware. You may not enjoy the complete benefit from the deal if you fully trust the broker. Better make sure that you interact with the buyer.
Unscrupulous brokers often create situations where the buyer and the seller never see face to face. Their modus operandi is simple. They may approach you, saying that your property is not worth the price you ask.
After waiting for some time, you may be prompted to reduce the price. Then, they may approach again and make a negotiation.
For example, if you expect to get Rs. 10 lakh for your property, the broker offers Rs. 8 lakh or so. You may be somehow prompted to accept the offer.
The broker will tell you that if this opportunity is not grabbed, you will never get a better price.
Differing rates
The broker at the same time approaches a potential buyer offering him your property for Rs. 10 lakh or above.
He may be ready for a bargain. Yet, the price of sale fixed for the buyer will be more than the price of sale set for the seller.
The difference may be lakhs of rupees. But neither the seller nor the buyer gets the benefit. Only the broker makes money.
Some go strictly by an unwritten code. They can be called honest brokers
Middlemen, or brokers as they are called, are found in almost all major business deals today. They advertise the sale, educate the client and broker the deal by functioning as a go-between.
It is in the property business that they are thriving. However, many believe that honesty does not always pay in brokering. That is, perhaps, why some real-estate middlemen become rich overnight. Their wealth often makes the buyer and the seller grow suspicious. But their capabilities in brokering and striking deals find little parallel.
They usually come as glib talkers. Their payment is fixed, often as a percentage of the sale value. In most property deals, brokers get two to four per cent of the total value as commission. Some go strictly by this unwritten code. They can be called honest brokers.
But there are others who do not care for the commission. Their aim is to strike the deal at any cost. And, often, they play an unconscionable game in achieving that end.
Desperate sellers
Their victims are usually desperate sellers. If you want to sell your property somehow, better beware. You may not enjoy the complete benefit from the deal if you fully trust the broker. Better make sure that you interact with the buyer.
Unscrupulous brokers often create situations where the buyer and the seller never see face to face. Their modus operandi is simple. They may approach you, saying that your property is not worth the price you ask.
After waiting for some time, you may be prompted to reduce the price. Then, they may approach again and make a negotiation.
For example, if you expect to get Rs. 10 lakh for your property, the broker offers Rs. 8 lakh or so. You may be somehow prompted to accept the offer.
The broker will tell you that if this opportunity is not grabbed, you will never get a better price.
Differing rates
The broker at the same time approaches a potential buyer offering him your property for Rs. 10 lakh or above.
He may be ready for a bargain. Yet, the price of sale fixed for the buyer will be more than the price of sale set for the seller.
The difference may be lakhs of rupees. But neither the seller nor the buyer gets the benefit. Only the broker makes money.
NRI realty investments drop by over 50%
NRI realty investments drop by over 50%
26 Feb 2009, 0044 hrs IST, Avinash Nair & Parag Dave, ET Bureau
The result: NRI investments in India-based properties dropped by over 50% this season, with the four metro cities and “NRI-heavy” mirco markets in states like Gujarat and Kerala being among the worst hit.
“Compared to last year, the drop in NRI interest in India-based properties has been almost 50% in all sectors. The metros showed a sharp drop in demand, largely owing to the steep prices”, says Sanjay Dutt, CEO - business, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), a global real-estate consultancy firm. “Very few luxury homes have been sold as compared to last year”, he adds.
At a time when the domestic demand in micro-markets in Tier-I, II and III cities began to slump in the third quarter of this financial year, the developers were hopeful that the demand from the NRIs will pep up the sentiments in the realty markets.
However, the global slowdown and the resulting slump froze the bullish sentiments among NRIs. “Though a far-from-spectacular number of transactions have indeed taken place this season, generalised job insecurity and a desire to conserve available cash among IT employees abroad has curbed investment demand for high-end properties, Mr Dutt said adding that the response was “significantly muted” from the NRI community this season.
The sharp corrections seen in some larger cities has also led to an “acute wait-and-watch attitude among NRIs who - just like everyone else - are now very price sensitive”, he explained.
26 Feb 2009, 0044 hrs IST, Avinash Nair & Parag Dave, ET Bureau
The result: NRI investments in India-based properties dropped by over 50% this season, with the four metro cities and “NRI-heavy” mirco markets in states like Gujarat and Kerala being among the worst hit.
“Compared to last year, the drop in NRI interest in India-based properties has been almost 50% in all sectors. The metros showed a sharp drop in demand, largely owing to the steep prices”, says Sanjay Dutt, CEO - business, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), a global real-estate consultancy firm. “Very few luxury homes have been sold as compared to last year”, he adds.
At a time when the domestic demand in micro-markets in Tier-I, II and III cities began to slump in the third quarter of this financial year, the developers were hopeful that the demand from the NRIs will pep up the sentiments in the realty markets.
However, the global slowdown and the resulting slump froze the bullish sentiments among NRIs. “Though a far-from-spectacular number of transactions have indeed taken place this season, generalised job insecurity and a desire to conserve available cash among IT employees abroad has curbed investment demand for high-end properties, Mr Dutt said adding that the response was “significantly muted” from the NRI community this season.
The sharp corrections seen in some larger cities has also led to an “acute wait-and-watch attitude among NRIs who - just like everyone else - are now very price sensitive”, he explained.
Monday, February 23, 2009
DLF slashes apartment prices on OMR
Times Of India reports
CHENNAI: Shaking up the city's realty market, DLF on Monday announced a hefty price cut, ranging from Rs 3.6 lakh to Rs 12.6 lakh, for its residential project Gardencity - on the Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR).
It would benefit existing as well as new customers, said K K Raman, executive vice president, DLF Chennai. The builder has introduced four price slabs, three for old customers and one for new entrants. Those who booked apartments during the soft-launch of the project, at Rs 2,800 per sq ft, would get a discount of Rs 300 per sq ft. The new price for those who booked at Rs 3,000 per sq ft last year is Rs 2,550 per sq ft. The maximum discount of 18.75 per cent Rs 600 per sq ft has been given to those who booked at Rs 3,200 per sq ft between August 2008 and February 2009. The price for new customers is Rs 2,650 per sq ft; the price will hold till May 31, 2009.
While the minimum savings on the smallest apartment 1,200 sq ft at Rs 300 per sq ft works out to Rs 3.6 lakh, the maximum benefit for the largest apartment 2,100 sq ft at Rs 600 per sq ft is Rs 12.6 lakh. This is also the highest price cut announced for an ongoing project by any promoter in Chennai after the economic crisis set in. Significantly, the promoter has also decided not to collect any interest for delayed payment from existing customers.
Speaking about reasons for taking such a drastic step, Raman said: "With unprecedented events in the world economy affecting the real estate sector here, bringing changes in input cost and interest rates, DLF went back to the drawing board and created further efficiencies. These benefits are being passed on to consumers."
DLF entered Chennai's residential sector with a bang in January 2008 by announcing the biggest project of 3,493 apartments spread over 53.5 acres in Semmanchery, 2 km off OMR. Its soft-launch made headlines with close to 2,200 people booking flats in less than two weeks. All major empanelled realty consultants were in the race for clocking the maximum number of bookings for the project. Three months later, when the formal launch happened, several hundred customers opted out, perhaps anticipating the market downturn in the months to follow. The DLF sales team took several months to make up for those cancellations. Currently, the project has about 1,800 bookings in the first two phases.
Ramesh Nair, MD, Jones Lang LaSalle, an international realty consultant, said: "DLF's price revision could drive up demand for the project as it becomes more affordable for home buyers. It will also lead to most developers reducing their unit sizes and building specifications apart from reconsidering their pricing strategy."
At least half-a-dozen residential projects on OMR, in which private equity funds, mostly foreign, have been parked on a pre-agreed condition that sales will be effected at a minimum price of Rs 3,200 per sq ft, will be affected by the DLF move. Also, customers who had booked apartments in other ongoing projects on OMR at higher prices could apply pressure on their builders. In short, a price correction for properties on the much-hyped OMR is perhaps underway.
CHENNAI: Shaking up the city's realty market, DLF on Monday announced a hefty price cut, ranging from Rs 3.6 lakh to Rs 12.6 lakh, for its residential project Gardencity - on the Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR).
It would benefit existing as well as new customers, said K K Raman, executive vice president, DLF Chennai. The builder has introduced four price slabs, three for old customers and one for new entrants. Those who booked apartments during the soft-launch of the project, at Rs 2,800 per sq ft, would get a discount of Rs 300 per sq ft. The new price for those who booked at Rs 3,000 per sq ft last year is Rs 2,550 per sq ft. The maximum discount of 18.75 per cent Rs 600 per sq ft has been given to those who booked at Rs 3,200 per sq ft between August 2008 and February 2009. The price for new customers is Rs 2,650 per sq ft; the price will hold till May 31, 2009.
While the minimum savings on the smallest apartment 1,200 sq ft at Rs 300 per sq ft works out to Rs 3.6 lakh, the maximum benefit for the largest apartment 2,100 sq ft at Rs 600 per sq ft is Rs 12.6 lakh. This is also the highest price cut announced for an ongoing project by any promoter in Chennai after the economic crisis set in. Significantly, the promoter has also decided not to collect any interest for delayed payment from existing customers.
Speaking about reasons for taking such a drastic step, Raman said: "With unprecedented events in the world economy affecting the real estate sector here, bringing changes in input cost and interest rates, DLF went back to the drawing board and created further efficiencies. These benefits are being passed on to consumers."
DLF entered Chennai's residential sector with a bang in January 2008 by announcing the biggest project of 3,493 apartments spread over 53.5 acres in Semmanchery, 2 km off OMR. Its soft-launch made headlines with close to 2,200 people booking flats in less than two weeks. All major empanelled realty consultants were in the race for clocking the maximum number of bookings for the project. Three months later, when the formal launch happened, several hundred customers opted out, perhaps anticipating the market downturn in the months to follow. The DLF sales team took several months to make up for those cancellations. Currently, the project has about 1,800 bookings in the first two phases.
Ramesh Nair, MD, Jones Lang LaSalle, an international realty consultant, said: "DLF's price revision could drive up demand for the project as it becomes more affordable for home buyers. It will also lead to most developers reducing their unit sizes and building specifications apart from reconsidering their pricing strategy."
At least half-a-dozen residential projects on OMR, in which private equity funds, mostly foreign, have been parked on a pre-agreed condition that sales will be effected at a minimum price of Rs 3,200 per sq ft, will be affected by the DLF move. Also, customers who had booked apartments in other ongoing projects on OMR at higher prices could apply pressure on their builders. In short, a price correction for properties on the much-hyped OMR is perhaps underway.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Goldman Sachs Research - Building up to a crisis
Also shows the trends are the last downturn in 1996.
Via R.N. Bhaskar at livemint.com. The original PDF can be found here.
Quoting Bhaskar:
Check out the article.
The Mumbai attacks tipped real estate prices down by another 5-10%. This brings the decline in real estate prices in Mumbai to around 25% from peak levels. But market watchers say real estate prices in Mumbai could fall by another 25% over the next six months. Expectedly, most developers are bracing themselves for the worst of times (see the next item). The only silver lining appears to be the reduction in rates on home loans. But with consumers expecting real estate prices to fall much further, it is doubtful if too many people will queue up for such loans right away.
The last time when there was a crash in property prices (in 1996), it took four years for real estate prices to bottom out. This time, while property prices have fallen 25% rather sharply, the bottoming out is expected to take at least another year. So, evidently, the real estate sector could experience either a sharp downturn, or a slow prolonged one (see table).
For a responsible citizen, is investing in land the wrong thing to do?
Like a few other NRIs, I got carried away during the boom years of Bangalore Real Estate and invested in land. I tend to think I am a responsible citizen, so in order to avoid the normal trappings of black money, went with a 'BDA approved developer' in an approved layout. All the money I put in was accounted for money - directly from my savings earned through my full time job. I made sure the money I paid was properly accounted for, receipts issued and so on.
To my surprise, at the time of land registration, the land was being registered for a fraction of what I paid for and the rest of the money going towards 'community development' towards the developer. Again, since this was all documented correctly in the documents I signed and since I had written proof, I didn't think twice about this. I was now a proud land owner in Bangalore.
Early 2007, I visited India and tried to sell the land. I was told that the best deal I could sell the land was through a 50:50 split of black vs white money. Even if I find a buyer to pay completely through white money, I would run into trouble trying to register the land at that face value, since the face value might be much higher than the prevailing rate or the rate the Government sets as fair price value.
Now the quandary. I dislike black money. I strongly feel it feeds corruption, feeds the mafia monster and in general prevents India from truly becoming the great nation it ought to be. From a pure investment point of view, as white money, I have barely beaten the Fixed Deposit rates offered by the banks and I have generated an equivalent amount of black money. The preferred way of disposing off the black money would be to re-invest the money into real estate, thereby feeding the corrupt system even more fodder. I disliked the idea and I haven't sold the land yet.
Every person I talk to treat this with an very casual attitude, "Every one does it, so what is the big deal?" - "There are much bigger fish to fry in India, no one comes after you and me".
In my view, it is pretty callous and the domino effect caused by many of us small investors is what drives the parallel Indian black economy. The more you feed the mafia monster, the more it grows. It controls countries in the long run.
Hence the title of the blog. For a responsible citizen, is investing in land the wrong thing to do? To be very clear, I am not looking for suggestions of what to do with black money - I am looking to hear from you what responsible citizens would do to avoid the black money mess in the first place.
To my surprise, at the time of land registration, the land was being registered for a fraction of what I paid for and the rest of the money going towards 'community development' towards the developer. Again, since this was all documented correctly in the documents I signed and since I had written proof, I didn't think twice about this. I was now a proud land owner in Bangalore.
Early 2007, I visited India and tried to sell the land. I was told that the best deal I could sell the land was through a 50:50 split of black vs white money. Even if I find a buyer to pay completely through white money, I would run into trouble trying to register the land at that face value, since the face value might be much higher than the prevailing rate or the rate the Government sets as fair price value.
Now the quandary. I dislike black money. I strongly feel it feeds corruption, feeds the mafia monster and in general prevents India from truly becoming the great nation it ought to be. From a pure investment point of view, as white money, I have barely beaten the Fixed Deposit rates offered by the banks and I have generated an equivalent amount of black money. The preferred way of disposing off the black money would be to re-invest the money into real estate, thereby feeding the corrupt system even more fodder. I disliked the idea and I haven't sold the land yet.
Every person I talk to treat this with an very casual attitude, "Every one does it, so what is the big deal?" - "There are much bigger fish to fry in India, no one comes after you and me".
In my view, it is pretty callous and the domino effect caused by many of us small investors is what drives the parallel Indian black economy. The more you feed the mafia monster, the more it grows. It controls countries in the long run.
Hence the title of the blog. For a responsible citizen, is investing in land the wrong thing to do? To be very clear, I am not looking for suggestions of what to do with black money - I am looking to hear from you what responsible citizens would do to avoid the black money mess in the first place.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Prices of starter homes
This is my first post to this excellent blog. Thanks to Vik for the opportunity.
One of the blogs I follow regularly is The Big Picture. Barry had an extremely interesting blog yesterday about home prices (in the US), but the similarities are very striking in India as well.
Real Estate is unique from most other goods and services, in that the purchase is not independent of other transactions. Buy 100 shares of stock, or a new or used car, or a can of soup, and only two parties are involved: The buyer and the seller.
Buy a home, and you are likely involved in a long transaction chain with five, six or even more other buyers and sellers. A newlywed couple buys a starter home from a family (with another child on the way), who are moving to a bigger home, and whose seller is moving to an even nicer part of town, and so on. It is a long chain, not of mere lateral moves, but increases in size, cost (and property taxes). If any of those sales fall through, the entire chain collapses.
And therein lies the problem.
The concept of constantly upgrading your home may not be as common in India, but has the real estate industry in India completely ignored the long tail of non IT earners? Entry level two bedroom apartments in Bangalore seem to sell for about 30 lakhs in a reasonable neighborhood, which given a Rs.30,000 per month salary, is about 9-10 years gross annual income.
Assuming this recession cleans up the speculators in the Indian real estate segment, in my opinion, the resurrection of the realty segment totally depends upon the long tail entry level homes.
I think we are somewhat beginning to see this happen already in Bangalore. From a recent Craigslist ad:
You would be delighted to know that DLF's premium homes project in Bangalore – WESTEND HEIGHTS, DLF BTM Extn. is now being launched as Westend Heights, New Town - DLF BTM Extn. We have completely redesigned the project to bring you an even better lifestyle experience than before to maximize comfort and convenience.
The new mix has come with an unbelievable price!
Apartment area Unit rate
1085 sft - 1225 sft Rs. 2000 / sft
1345 sft - 1410 sft Rs. 1900 / sft
1570 sft - 1820 sft Rs. 1850 / sft
This is an Unbelievable offer .Could you afford to miss it out ......
Is this the start of a trend? Is sanity returning?
Non-Immigrant visa and the housing bubble
I was browsing Murthy.com forums and came across this unfortunate situation of a laid of H1-b visa holder. Its painful to see the implications of of a temorary visa and iliquid assets backed by debt. The poor laid off employee probably did everything right but still coudn't escape the deathly spiral of foreclosure, layoffs and a temporary visa. Its a reminder for everyone to keep debt levels manageable, regardless of Visa status. If you have a housing loan, make sure you have atleast six months or more of emergency funds. Sometimes life comes at you hard, when you are not looking.
>>>
I got laid off from a Job almost a week ago. I just have 2 months left on my 6 year H-1B expiry.The chances of finding a new job in this market are very slim. I have a home and car in US. It will be extremely difficult for me, if not impossible, to continue with paying mortgage w/o any source of income. What if I have to go back to India in order to avoid being "Out of Status", in the event I am unable to find a new job. Do I need to file for bankruptcy/foreclosure for the home? I can still sell off my car, but to go thorugh the home foreclosure process may take months..I will not have that much time in the event I have to leave the country..What happens in a case like mine? I genuinely want to stay in US and find a job to pay my mortgage, but in the event, I have to leave the country, who eventually is responsible for the home? And what implications it could have on my future visit to US?Prompt reply will be really appreciated.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
The end of Secret Swiss banking
Bloomberg reports on the collapse of secrecy in the Swiss Banking industry. From what I hear, Singapore is the new offshore destination for secret banking since their laws are tighter then Switzerland.
If India did something similar to the US, how many skeletons would tumble out of the closet ?
Switzerland’s unprecedented decision to let UBS AG hand U.S. tax authorities clients’ details risks damaging a banking industry that relies on a pledge of confidentiality to win business, legal scholars said.
“This could open the floodgates,” Peter V. Kunz, head of the business law department at the University of Berne, said in a telephone interview today. “Giving in to the U.S. sends a signal to other countries and the European Union. I don’t see what would stop them from acting in the same way.”
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority said yesterday it would allow UBS to pass on some client data to save the country’s biggest bank from criminal charges in the U.S. that it said could have “put its existence at risk.”
Switzerland is being increasingly pressed by countries such as neighboring Germany to amend banking secrecy laws, first introduced in 1934, which they say promote tax evasion. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said last year the Swiss should be put on a “blacklist” of uncooperative tax havens. The European Commission proposed this month to end anonymity for bank account holders within the 27-nation area, and may seek to expand the measure to cover Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
“Swiss banking secrecy will not exist in today’s form in two or three years,” said Dirk Nitzsche, a senior finance lecturer at Cass Business School in London. “Switzerland has already done a lot over the past couple of years. But the international community wants more.”
Offshore Center
Client confidentiality is a cornerstone of Switzerland’s banking industry, which has attracted some 27 percent of all privately held offshore assets, according to the Swiss Banking Association. U.S. law views tax evasion as a crime. Swiss law doesn’t. The Swiss view tax fraud as a more serious offense.
The U.S.’s success “is likely to encourage other tax authorities to pursue claims against the Swiss more vigorously,” Dirk Hoffmann-Becking, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein & Co., said in a note to clients today.
The U.S. is likely to continue to put pressure on both UBS and the Swiss government to make it harder for individuals to move money offshore as President Barack Obama’s administration attempts to finance its economic stimulus plan, he added.
The European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, today said it welcomed any effort to improve governance.
“We expect a similar request from EU member states to Switzerland would not receive different treatment,” Maria Assimakopoulou, spokeswoman on tax issues for the agency, told reporters in Brussels today.
Justice Department
Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz described the settlement as an “isolated case” after the U.S. authorities set a Feb. 18 deadline for UBS to reach a deal or face indictment. While it’s “problematic” that the official procedure wasn’t followed, an indictment and possible failure of UBS would have had consequences for the whole Swiss economy, he stressed.
The U.S. Justice Department accused UBS of conspiring to defraud the country by helping 17,000 Americans hide accounts from the Internal Revenue Service. The U.S. will drop the charge in 18 months if the bank reforms its practices, aids prosecutors and pays $780 million. UBS will immediately turn over names of about 250 clients, according to people familiar with the matter.
“The U.S. authorities didn’t want to wait, as a constitutional state is supposed to do, but pressured for an exceptional allowance,” Kunz said. “The legal basis for such actions is very thin.”
‘Problematic’
The government should have followed the information-exchange agreement it has with the U.S. and waited for a Swiss court to rule on the matter, legal professors say. Clients have to be notified before their data is released under Swiss law. The federal administrative court received objections in November.
“What concerns me the most is that evidently legal protection for these clients is being impeded,” said Rainer Schweizer, a law professor at the University of St. Gallen. “Clients have to complain about this to the federal court.”
UBS agreed only to the immediate disclosure of account holders involved in fraudulent or sham offshore account structures, according to people familiar with the matter. The Swiss finance ministry has had some 40 people working on the case, trying to determine whether any of the clients whose information was requested committed tax fraud.
Merz said that data on some 200 to 300 clients that is transferred to the U.S. “clearly” relates to tax fraud rather than tax evasion. UBS Chairman Peter Kurer told Swiss television in an interview that the clients had made “false statements in writing” to the U.S. tax authorities.
If India did something similar to the US, how many skeletons would tumble out of the closet ?
Switzerland’s unprecedented decision to let UBS AG hand U.S. tax authorities clients’ details risks damaging a banking industry that relies on a pledge of confidentiality to win business, legal scholars said.
“This could open the floodgates,” Peter V. Kunz, head of the business law department at the University of Berne, said in a telephone interview today. “Giving in to the U.S. sends a signal to other countries and the European Union. I don’t see what would stop them from acting in the same way.”
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority said yesterday it would allow UBS to pass on some client data to save the country’s biggest bank from criminal charges in the U.S. that it said could have “put its existence at risk.”
Switzerland is being increasingly pressed by countries such as neighboring Germany to amend banking secrecy laws, first introduced in 1934, which they say promote tax evasion. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said last year the Swiss should be put on a “blacklist” of uncooperative tax havens. The European Commission proposed this month to end anonymity for bank account holders within the 27-nation area, and may seek to expand the measure to cover Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
“Swiss banking secrecy will not exist in today’s form in two or three years,” said Dirk Nitzsche, a senior finance lecturer at Cass Business School in London. “Switzerland has already done a lot over the past couple of years. But the international community wants more.”
Offshore Center
Client confidentiality is a cornerstone of Switzerland’s banking industry, which has attracted some 27 percent of all privately held offshore assets, according to the Swiss Banking Association. U.S. law views tax evasion as a crime. Swiss law doesn’t. The Swiss view tax fraud as a more serious offense.
The U.S.’s success “is likely to encourage other tax authorities to pursue claims against the Swiss more vigorously,” Dirk Hoffmann-Becking, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein & Co., said in a note to clients today.
The U.S. is likely to continue to put pressure on both UBS and the Swiss government to make it harder for individuals to move money offshore as President Barack Obama’s administration attempts to finance its economic stimulus plan, he added.
The European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, today said it welcomed any effort to improve governance.
“We expect a similar request from EU member states to Switzerland would not receive different treatment,” Maria Assimakopoulou, spokeswoman on tax issues for the agency, told reporters in Brussels today.
Justice Department
Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz described the settlement as an “isolated case” after the U.S. authorities set a Feb. 18 deadline for UBS to reach a deal or face indictment. While it’s “problematic” that the official procedure wasn’t followed, an indictment and possible failure of UBS would have had consequences for the whole Swiss economy, he stressed.
The U.S. Justice Department accused UBS of conspiring to defraud the country by helping 17,000 Americans hide accounts from the Internal Revenue Service. The U.S. will drop the charge in 18 months if the bank reforms its practices, aids prosecutors and pays $780 million. UBS will immediately turn over names of about 250 clients, according to people familiar with the matter.
“The U.S. authorities didn’t want to wait, as a constitutional state is supposed to do, but pressured for an exceptional allowance,” Kunz said. “The legal basis for such actions is very thin.”
‘Problematic’
The government should have followed the information-exchange agreement it has with the U.S. and waited for a Swiss court to rule on the matter, legal professors say. Clients have to be notified before their data is released under Swiss law. The federal administrative court received objections in November.
“What concerns me the most is that evidently legal protection for these clients is being impeded,” said Rainer Schweizer, a law professor at the University of St. Gallen. “Clients have to complain about this to the federal court.”
UBS agreed only to the immediate disclosure of account holders involved in fraudulent or sham offshore account structures, according to people familiar with the matter. The Swiss finance ministry has had some 40 people working on the case, trying to determine whether any of the clients whose information was requested committed tax fraud.
Merz said that data on some 200 to 300 clients that is transferred to the U.S. “clearly” relates to tax fraud rather than tax evasion. UBS Chairman Peter Kurer told Swiss television in an interview that the clients had made “false statements in writing” to the U.S. tax authorities.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Inviting bloggers to contribute to the blog
Hello Guys,
I came across this feature in the blog settings where I could invite bloggers to contribute to the blog. If people are interested I could invite them. I think we have some good rational people which contribute meaningfuly to the blog. Drop me a note in the comments sections with your email address and I will add you to the list.
Thanks
Vik
I came across this feature in the blog settings where I could invite bloggers to contribute to the blog. If people are interested I could invite them. I think we have some good rational people which contribute meaningfuly to the blog. Drop me a note in the comments sections with your email address and I will add you to the list.
Thanks
Vik
Monday, February 16, 2009
20,000 defaulters to lose homes
Here is another video where Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahneman discusses the crisis hitting the US and consequently the world. Officially Japan is in depression. Just as Lehman was leveraged 30:1, I expect the builders to have similar leverage. Financial wizadry aside, we now turn to psycology for answers.
Source Deccan Chronicle 17/Feb/2009
Around 20,000 houses in the twin cities are to be auctioned after borrowers defaulted on home loan payments. This is the first time that so many houses are being put up for auction. Many of the borrowers are IT employees who were unable to pay the equated monthly instalments because of the current slowdown in the software industry. Several techies who took loans have lost their jobs and others were forced to accept salary cuts making it difficult for them to meet their financial commitments.
Apart from techies, there are many employees in the aviation sector too who are unable to pay their EMIs. Banks are in a piquant situa tion since borrowers have not hurried to pay their EMIs despite the threat of the auction.
In fact, they are willing for the auction as they are not in a position to mobilise resources. The borrowers have no option but to forego the amount that they have invested may come to around 20 per cent of the property value. Banks which provided 80 per cent amount as loan fear that they may not get the amount even if they auction the properties. “There is no option for banks except to dispose the properties when the borrowers are reluctant to clear the dues,” said the IDBI director, Mr K. Narasimha Murthy. “More auctions will be held in the next few months since many borrowers are yet to receive final notices from banks.”
Source Deccan Chronicle 17/Feb/2009
Around 20,000 houses in the twin cities are to be auctioned after borrowers defaulted on home loan payments. This is the first time that so many houses are being put up for auction. Many of the borrowers are IT employees who were unable to pay the equated monthly instalments because of the current slowdown in the software industry. Several techies who took loans have lost their jobs and others were forced to accept salary cuts making it difficult for them to meet their financial commitments.
Apart from techies, there are many employees in the aviation sector too who are unable to pay their EMIs. Banks are in a piquant situa tion since borrowers have not hurried to pay their EMIs despite the threat of the auction.
In fact, they are willing for the auction as they are not in a position to mobilise resources. The borrowers have no option but to forego the amount that they have invested may come to around 20 per cent of the property value. Banks which provided 80 per cent amount as loan fear that they may not get the amount even if they auction the properties. “There is no option for banks except to dispose the properties when the borrowers are reluctant to clear the dues,” said the IDBI director, Mr K. Narasimha Murthy. “More auctions will be held in the next few months since many borrowers are yet to receive final notices from banks.”
Baseline scenario outlook on India
I just came across this site which seem to discuss all the economic situation of today and the Obama stimulus plan. What Obama does affects the world and India is no exception. Here is an excerpt from their outlook on India from a macro-economic perspective. The full link is to article is here. Simon Johnson's interview with Bill Moyers on the stimulus package and bank oligarchy in the US. With the 30:1 leverage we've seen how Lehman and Bear Stearns have helped dig a hole deeper then anyone could imagine.
India
India
There are striking similarities between the current policy debate in India and in the Eurozone. In both places, there is little or no concern that inflation will rebound any time soon. At least for people based in Delhi, there is as a result confidence that aggressive monetary policy can cushion the blows coming from the global economy. As in the Eurozone, all eyes are on monetary policy because of fears that fiscal policy cannot do much more than it is already doing, given that government debt levels are already on the high side.
The discordant note comes from the business community. They feel that Delhi does not fully understand that the real economy is already in bad shape. Sectors such as real estate and autos are hurting badly. Small businesses, in particular, are bearing the brunt of the blow. The banking picture seems more murky, but is surely not good. And of course the Satyam accounting scandal could not come at a worse time.
Overall, official growth forecasts need to be marked down for India, although the monsoon was good and the agricultural sector is not highly leveraged. India will likely cut interest rates further quite soon (and has space for additional cuts), but we should not expect much more from the fiscal side.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
ICICI CEO and DLF talk price corrections
Looks like the banks are exerting pressure on the builders to dispose off inventory and pay their debts. DLF has slashed prices of its Bangalore Bannerghatta road prices to Rs 2000 per sq/ft.
Now with Banerghatta road at 2000rs, what should be the prices in Whitefield, Devanahalli, Electronic City all peripheral locations to Bangalore. With DLF starting a price war, the small builders will be squeezed to liquidate their holdings. Brigade, Prestige and Sobha might have the holding capacity to wade thru the DLF marketing blitz. Incidentally DLF did the same in Chennai for its project on OMR road. However even after 1 year of booking, there is hardly any construction activity on that project. Incredible as it sounds, the price of thin air is still Rs 2000 rs. Realistically this concrete jungle of G+19 floors should take another 4 years to complete. God save the investors.
Reuters reporting.
India property prices need to fall 20 pct or more-ICICI exec
MUMBAI, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The incoming head of India's largest private bank ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO) said real estate prices needed to fall by 20 percent or more as the market corrects amid the economic slowdown, the Times of India reported on Saturday.
Prices need to fall by "maybe 15-20 percent, or maybe more", Chanda Kochhar, who is set to become chief executive of the bank, was quoted as saying.
"Piecemeal corrections have already happened ... But they also need an adjustment in the paradigm."
Kochhar said there was no pressure on the bank's books from souring housing and auto loans.
"Maybe a little delayed, but there is no real increase in losses or non-performing assets," she said according to the report. "But we have not only substantially tightened credit norms there, we have also budgeted for any losses that may arise there."
She added interest rates and loans were expected to fall. (Reporting by Ruchira Singh; Editing by Jan Dahinten)
Now with Banerghatta road at 2000rs, what should be the prices in Whitefield, Devanahalli, Electronic City all peripheral locations to Bangalore. With DLF starting a price war, the small builders will be squeezed to liquidate their holdings. Brigade, Prestige and Sobha might have the holding capacity to wade thru the DLF marketing blitz. Incidentally DLF did the same in Chennai for its project on OMR road. However even after 1 year of booking, there is hardly any construction activity on that project. Incredible as it sounds, the price of thin air is still Rs 2000 rs. Realistically this concrete jungle of G+19 floors should take another 4 years to complete. God save the investors.
Reuters reporting.
India property prices need to fall 20 pct or more-ICICI exec
MUMBAI, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The incoming head of India's largest private bank ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO) said real estate prices needed to fall by 20 percent or more as the market corrects amid the economic slowdown, the Times of India reported on Saturday.
Prices need to fall by "maybe 15-20 percent, or maybe more", Chanda Kochhar, who is set to become chief executive of the bank, was quoted as saying.
"Piecemeal corrections have already happened ... But they also need an adjustment in the paradigm."
Kochhar said there was no pressure on the bank's books from souring housing and auto loans.
"Maybe a little delayed, but there is no real increase in losses or non-performing assets," she said according to the report. "But we have not only substantially tightened credit norms there, we have also budgeted for any losses that may arise there."
She added interest rates and loans were expected to fall. (Reporting by Ruchira Singh; Editing by Jan Dahinten)
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Al-Jazeera's coverage of the Indian housing bubble
Unfinished projects, shattered dreams, uncertain future, rampant greed, no accountability. This is what I was afraid of. Parsavanath and others builders need to take a lesson from this crash. Gravity is universal. In the credit unwinding spiral, there is the genuine buyer who is going to pay the price for the greed of the few. Lesson to be learnt for buyers. Go with completed projects and haggle hard. This is your time. Any investment in a project which is kicking off or half completed is destined to drag longer then you ever expected.
Here is Parsvanath's pricing At $400k per apt, at Rs 7000 per sq-ft, this is a price headed for a 50% correction in the next few years. I hope the couple hasn't take loans. If they have they will be bleeding pre EMI interest of close to 1.5L a month, not to mention the EMI interest which will kick in. This is a real life scary situation. God save these guys.
Thanks to Anon @ 9:34 am for the link
Here is Parsvanath's pricing At $400k per apt, at Rs 7000 per sq-ft, this is a price headed for a 50% correction in the next few years. I hope the couple hasn't take loans. If they have they will be bleeding pre EMI interest of close to 1.5L a month, not to mention the EMI interest which will kick in. This is a real life scary situation. God save these guys.
Thanks to Anon @ 9:34 am for the link
Monday, February 09, 2009
DLF feels the heat of CNBC's coverage
from moneycontrol.com
CNBC-TV18 learns that the company's Garden City project in Chennai is on shaky ground. CNBC-TV18 has access to e-mails of buyers of the project, including an online survey showing that over 50% of them want to pull out. The company started bookings last April and promised to sign the agreement within 45days. But nearly one year later, the project has not even got the necessary approvals.Of the reported 1800 apartments sold in the project, nearly 53% of buyers want an out according to the survey citing delays in signing the buyers agreement. Other reasons including cost price, which DLF had hoped would be their USP has also gone against the company. At the
time of announcing the project DLF had quoted prices of 2800 per square foot, while the prevailing rates was around 3300 square foot. The prices now average between 1700-2700 per square foot and buyers are demanding that the company revise prices.
The final approval required is the stamping of the drawings by MSB panel. The panel meeting was completed on Jan 28, 2009 and we are expecting the final stamping approval anytime now. The price of Rs 2,800 per square foot is in itself the lowest price compared to prices charged by leading national and local brands and we are discussing this with an open view and are yet to take a decision.
When contacted, a DLF spokesperson said, ”The final approval required is the stamping of the drawings by MSB Panel. The panel meeting was completed on 28 Jan 2009 and we are expecting the final stamping approval anytime now. The price of Rs 2800 per square foot is in
itself the lowest price compared to prices charged by leading national and local brands. We are discussing this with an open view and are yet to take a decision.”
There are other issues as well; buyers want an Undivided Share Land clause to be signed by the company. Also; clubhouse facilities, which DLF claimed were exclusively for buyers' use, is now being thrown open to outsiders as well.
What are the options now available to the buyers? A minority section of say they might just re consider their decision to pull out if the company meets their demands. The others though say that they want their money refunded and have given the company till February 12 to do
so.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Hiranandani Faces Penalty, Denies MMRDA Violation Claims
How many thousands of crores have been paid to the politicians and babu's for this scam to go unnoticed for 23 years. It will be naive to think, Hirananadani is going to accept these acccusations without bringing down the house. These same allegations should be levied on the Raheja's for selling Jodi flats in the Malad(w) link road area where they have destoryed all the mangroves. These scams are part of the Indian scenario and nothing will be learnt. The Satyam case provides enough evidence that whistle blowing on these scams are just lip service to further personal agendas. The Indian legal and political system is of the rich, for the rich and by the rich. All the common man can do is to be vigilant and aware and not get caught up in this cesspool of corruption. In the past some reports have suggested Hiranandani was given the Powai land at 40 paisa per sq ft. The government officials who approved this paperwork should be prosecuted before Hiranandani. If someone approves such a deal, any moron with an iota of grey matter will take it. Why blame Hirananandani for a ultra ineffecient corrupt system ?
By ugesh sarkar, Section Real Estate
Posted on Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 09:38:36 PM EST
In what could be the highest penalty imposed on a builder for alleged gross violation of land misuse, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) has recommended to the state urban development department that developer Hiranandani Group be made to pay a penalty of Rs 2,000 crore. Though the developer is yet to receive a notice of levy for the amount, Niranjan Hiranandani, MD, Hiranandani Group, has denied the charge in totality, stating that the state agency was unaware that no development in the area had been done without obtaining the necessary permissions and sanctions of government departments.
Meanwhile, the metro authority has charged the builder with constructing large apartments instead of the 40 sq m and 80 sq m flats, for which permission was accorded. The second charge is for building commercial complexes in violation of the original agreement and the third, an add-on penalty component, for utilisation of transfer of development rights.
Hiranandani said development rules and notifications, since the 23-year-old Powai Area Development Scheme, comprising 92.2 hectares, was signed, had undergone changes and consequently implemented after sanctions during different periods. The MMRDA has used the current ready reckoner rates to compute the alleged violations to arrive at the penal sum of Rs 1,993 crore.
The Powai Area Development Scheme was not classified under any scheme for weaker section / lower income group of the society, he said adding that a Bombay High Court decision in 2005 stated that the development at Powai was not for any weaker section / lower income group of the society and the same does not apply to the said lands.
On increase in the size of tenements, Hiranandani said the scheme came after a tripartite agreement was signed on November 19, 1986. Under the agreement, there was a condition restricting sizes of the tenements. However, the MMRDA permitted the amalgamation of tenements as per its order dated August 18, 1989.
The larger premises were constructed utilising transfer of development rights subsequently, when the TDR concept was introduced in 1991. During the period when the tripartite agreement was executed, the development by TDR was not available.
The Bombay High Court is hearing public interest litigation petitions pertaining to the project development.
The MMRDA has also recommended that all concessions extended to the builder be withdrawn, to which Hiranandani said he had not availed himself of any concessions thus far.
Posted on Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 09:38:36 PM EST
In what could be the highest penalty imposed on a builder for alleged gross violation of land misuse, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) has recommended to the state urban development department that developer Hiranandani Group be made to pay a penalty of Rs 2,000 crore. Though the developer is yet to receive a notice of levy for the amount, Niranjan Hiranandani, MD, Hiranandani Group, has denied the charge in totality, stating that the state agency was unaware that no development in the area had been done without obtaining the necessary permissions and sanctions of government departments.
Meanwhile, the metro authority has charged the builder with constructing large apartments instead of the 40 sq m and 80 sq m flats, for which permission was accorded. The second charge is for building commercial complexes in violation of the original agreement and the third, an add-on penalty component, for utilisation of transfer of development rights.
Hiranandani said development rules and notifications, since the 23-year-old Powai Area Development Scheme, comprising 92.2 hectares, was signed, had undergone changes and consequently implemented after sanctions during different periods. The MMRDA has used the current ready reckoner rates to compute the alleged violations to arrive at the penal sum of Rs 1,993 crore.
The Powai Area Development Scheme was not classified under any scheme for weaker section / lower income group of the society, he said adding that a Bombay High Court decision in 2005 stated that the development at Powai was not for any weaker section / lower income group of the society and the same does not apply to the said lands.
On increase in the size of tenements, Hiranandani said the scheme came after a tripartite agreement was signed on November 19, 1986. Under the agreement, there was a condition restricting sizes of the tenements. However, the MMRDA permitted the amalgamation of tenements as per its order dated August 18, 1989.
The larger premises were constructed utilising transfer of development rights subsequently, when the TDR concept was introduced in 1991. During the period when the tripartite agreement was executed, the development by TDR was not available.
The Bombay High Court is hearing public interest litigation petitions pertaining to the project development.
The MMRDA has also recommended that all concessions extended to the builder be withdrawn, to which Hiranandani said he had not availed himself of any concessions thus far.
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