Realtors Seek Share Sales To Repay Debt, Await Sales

From VCCircle.

Since the start of 2009, almost $ 2 bn has been called for by realtors via share sales.

India's real estate firms are seeking share sales to settle debt and meet working capital needs as valuations improve, but the funds won't be enough to salvage them if sales don't pick up, say industry watchers.

Since the start of 2009, almost $1.7 billion has been raised by home builders, according to Thomson Reuters data, while up to $2 billion more has been called for by realtors via share sales, especially qualified institutional placements (QIPs).

"It is an over-leveraged market...the overall market is too huge. This (money) is nothing. It's small peanuts. It won't suffice," Pankaj Kapoor, founder of Liases Foras Real Estate Rating & Research, said.

Realty firms piled up debt as they rushed to launch projects amidst a three-year bull run in the sector. But, sales began slumping in 2008 amid a global meltdown and reluctance among buyers at higher prices, leading to a severe cash crunch.

Sentiment improved with the successful share sales by Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech and India's largest listed real estate firm DLF, prompting more builders to seek board approval to raise money via share placements.

"They don't have an option," Shobhit Agarwal, Joint Managing Director, Capital Markets, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, said, referring to QIPs. "If you go to private equity, which is the other extreme, this kind of size is not available."

"They have no further capacity to raise debt... or to service that debt," he added.

Outstanding bank loans to real estate firms rose to 623 billion rupees in FY08, up about 38 percent from a year earlier, the latest central bank data shows. Confederation of Real Estate Developer's Association of India (CREDAI) estimates that listed companies account for over half of those loans.

DEMAND REVIVAL?

Sales are trickling back as realtors focus on medium to low-priced houses, redesigning projects and cutting prices by as much as 40 percent in some markets, but most buyers appear to be flighty investors, suggesting that recovery may be months away.

Residences account for the bulk of real estate up for sale and select projects across India are seeing a revival of demand, developers say.

Equity analysts remain sceptical even about firms that were successful in raising money.

Indiabulls Real Estate's share issue brought down promoter holding to about 16.7 percent said a Motilal Oswal June report, "however, till date no concrete plans on the usage of the QIP proceeds have been shared."

Stock investors have pushed up the industry's market value but analysts don't think the rise can be sustained. India's realty index is up almost threefold from March.

With most stocks trading at NAV (net asset value) premiums and equity dilution a likely overhang, we view risk/reward as unfavorable, Karishma Solanki, analyst at Citi said in a June report.

India's property market pick-up is typically seen starting from Mumbai, then Delhi, followed by the southern markets, Jones Lang's Agarwal said.

But, the future still rests on revival of demand and a further price correction to bring back fundamentals.

The only thing that will bring back efficiencies into the (realty) market is sales," said Liases Foras' Kapoor. "For that prices have to come down, because until they come down, the buyer will not be motivated to come and purchase."

Time for a realty check

If you thought buy-one-get-one free offers were limited to trousers, shoes and other small-ticket items, think again. You could get houses too for free, thanks to Orange Properties, which came out with a ‘buy-one-flat-get-one-free’ offer recently for its Orange Resorts in Devanahalli, in Bangalore.

Sales didn’t quite skyrocket and the advertising campaign across print and outdoor met with mixed response, but given the current market conditions perhaps that’s understandable.

With real estate being struck badly in the slowdown, real estate developers, who were once riding a high, have now tightened advertising and marketing expenses. They have also had to think out of the box even while operating on leaner budgets. They have been forced to rework their marketing strategies to woo consumers at a time when the propensity to buy is not very high. Marketing initiatives may be fewer but they are becoming more focussed, specific and project-based, using direct and candid communication. And pricing is obviously the key premise around which the initiatives revolve.

Real Estate from a Landlord's point of view.

Hi All,

This is my first post on this blog, after having spent a great time as a reader and commentor. I am feeling a sense of pride at being 'promoted'. (Thanks Vik :).

This post will discuss an issue dear to my heart and my wallet:

Being a landlord in Pune (the financial equation).

Firstly, some background info:
<start_info>
I own 3 flats in Pune in good areas which are rented out. All flats are 2 BHK, rented out to software professionals.

The rent : emi ratio for each flat is approx 1:2. This is because one flat was bought when the boom in Pune was just starting, and other two flats are part of a duplex bungalow constructed on a plot owned by the family.

The going rates in these areas are currently so high that a flat bought now (in June 2009) and given on rent will have a rent : emi ratio of approx 1 : 4.
</end_info>

The landlord is not buying a flat for her own consumption, but for investment purposes. But she does not want to sell it immediately and turn a quick profit, so she is not a speculative investor.
She is a long term investor who is also interested in the betterment of the society and the neighborhood so that rents can increase.
In this sense, she has the same concerns as a homeowner.

Increases in rent generally are linked to income and standard of living. So only when the overall economy improves, rents increase.
Rents go down quickly in recessions.
Also, people like to rent the cheapest house which will "just support their lifestyle", as compared to buying the best house which will "enhance their lifestyle".

All this leads to a question (for which I don't have any good answers).
When house price increases without a corresponding increase in house rent, this is a speculative price rise. Should the landlord be happy?

The argument for being happy is that the high price is due to a bubble, and all bubbles eventually burst.
So the landlord should sell the flat now, being happy that she has sold it for more than its financial worth. Then buy it at a reduced rate when the bubble bursts. This is not as easy as it sounds.

The argument for being unhappy is that you can no longer expand your renting business.
The basic financial principal behind renting is Positive Cash Flow. This means that the rent in hand should be greater than the emi + taxes + maintenance + downtime. If there is positive cash flow, the property becomes self sustaining and you can think of expanding your business (i.e. buying another flat and giving it on rent.)
But now in a bubble, positive cash flow is not achievable, so there is a limit on how much emi you can pay out of your other income (read: salary).

In today's real estate scenario in Pune, rent : emi ratio is usually 1:3 or 1:4. Investing in a rental property makes sense only when rent : emi ratio is 1:1.5 or lesser.

Builders are not reducing rates quoting construction costs, growth of the economy etc.
A person who wants to stay in his own home can disregard the financial equation and buy the flat for emotional reasons.
But can a rental investor disregard the financial equation?
If not, should she predict that property rates will fall at least 50% in Pune so that rent : emi ratio comes down to 1:1.5?
Or should she predict that rents will double in the next year, so that a 2BHK which on average rents for 10k will command a rent of 20k next year?

Even when my rental properties have been bought at prices 50% lesser than today's prices, still the rent : emi ratio is 1:2.
This leads to some interesting questions:
1. Does this mean that not only prices will fall to pre-boom levels, but go less than that due to recessionary fears of the consumer?
2. Does it mean that rents are less than reasonable and we can expect a 20% to 30% increase in rents? Even though as a landlord, I would love to see an increase in rent, I don't think that in this recessionary phase, increase in rents is a practical possibility.
3. The ratio will decrease if the interest rates come down to 7 - 8%, from current levels of 10 - 11%. Is this a possibility? As might be expected, the builder lobby is pushing banks and the govt hard for an interest rate decrease.

Thanks
Abeer Bagul

Searching the blog and other things

Someone asked me on how to search the blog effectively to find out articles related to duping of buyers by the builders. I've tried to tag all such articles with various tags like fraud etc. Look at the bottom of this posting and you will see those tags. Click on those tags and you will find the relevant articles.
On another note, due to some personal commitments I am unable to follow the market and post articles on a regular basis. I would urge some other folks to take up this mantle for the benefit for all concerned parties. I had given some folks posting rights in the past and I can give some more folks who would like to take up the cudgels from me. We have a good audience and the bull bear story will continue for a long time before everyone is exhausted.

As I see the market in Mumbai, speaking to friends everyone tells me the money has dried up. Some businessmen friends have drops of upto 40-50% in their sales. Rents have dropped. I was shocked to see some rentals going for 32k, which were quoting 50-60k last year.

We are in a deep protracted downturn, specially Mumbai. As I have said repeatedly, be it Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Bangalore, affordability for Indians or NRI's is upto 4,000 per sq/ft. Anything above is for the politicians and black money operators. Anyone who pays more then that is going to suffer for a long time.

Lastly I spoke to a loan banker who said that most builders have reduced rates but still some are holding on. He does not see any hope for anything more then 7k. He is bit more bullish them I am :)

the areas I was referring to in this and previous posts is in Santa Cruz and Vile Parle.

latest mumbai update

So I was talking to some folks in Mumbai now, realty brokers and otherwise. Everyone is of the consensus prices have dropped, rents are still holding up. Some areas which went to 9k are now at 7k. There is a building built by a Gujju builder, with a total of 15 apts and he is unable to sell even one at 7k. I was telling the broker that if a gujju is unable to find other 15 Gujju's to buy when the prices have dropped by 20%, that means the market is real bad. Everyone knows the amount of money some Gujju businessmen have. I think value is at 5k. so wait and watch.

UPA govt impact on real estate.

Enough said. The sensex rocketed by 10% and is halted. Is the bear phase over ??

BBMP issues warning letters to DLF

If this is happening to DLF, it must be happening to other projects in Bangalore as well. I heard that another project, Mantri Magnolia has been cancelled as well and Mantri is asking buyers to apply for refunds. So much for projects pending approval. The good old days for the builders are over. Deccan Chronicle reports

The country’s biggest realty company, DLF, has been thrust into two unexpected battles. The income-tax authorities have slapped a demand of Rs 400 crore on it. And the Bangalore civic body has issued a public warning that a large DLF project in the city does not have its sanction.

The tax demand, which will be appealed against by the company, arose out of a special audit of DLF’s accounts for 2005-06. A special auditor, appointed by the income-tax department for the purpose, came to the conclusion that the company had earned about Rs 1,200 crore over and above what it had declared in its returns.

The company itself notified the Bombay Stock Exchange about the new tax demand. Ramesh Sanka, group CFO, in a signed statement to the exchange, said, “On May 6, 2009, the assessing officer, pursuant to the audit and assessment proceeding, has issued an assessment order adding…. most of the amount suggested by the special audit report.”

Sanka, speaking to Financial Chronicle, said the company would contest the claim within 90 days, as provided for in the law.

In the statement to BSE, later reiterated by Sanka to FC, DLF said that the root of the extra tax demand lay in the change in accounting method that the company made in 2005-06.

The new method, prescribed by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India, requires real estate developers and construction companies to switch over from the “conveyancing method” to the “percentage of completion method” (PoCM) for computing revenues and profits.

Sanka said that the company had used the PoCM method in the following years also.

More bad news awaited the company in Bangalore. The Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) took out advertisements in newspapers on Thursday, saying the DLF had not obtained its approval or sanction for the Westend Heights project in the city.
Asserting that it was the only competent authority to sanction building plans in the city, BBMP said, “Prospective buyers are advised against purchase of such illegal apartments which are liable for all lawful action that will be initiated, including demolition.”
The BBMP action was an obvious response to advertisements that DLF took out three weeks ago, announcing the sale of apartments in the project, on Bannerghatta Road, at Rs 1,850 per sq ft.
DLF’s homes head for Karnataka, Anantha Naarayanan, told FC that his company had already pre-sold 600 of the 1,000 apartments planned in the 27-acre project for which the outlay would be Rs 400 crore. Construction is yet to begin.
In the advertisement, DLF claimed to have obtained the approval of the Bangalore Development Authority (BDA) for four floors. BBMP officials said the DLF advertisement showed an elevation of 18 floors.
S Subramanya, BBMP commissioner, told FC “it’s clear that people are being taken for a ride”.
BBMP warned that the owners of Westend Heights apartments would not be given occupancy certificates.

Subramanya said he expected DLF to cover BBMP’s advertisement costs and apply for sanction in the proper route.

In a statement DLF claimed that it obtained approvals for the developmental plan of the project through its subsidiary, Annabel Builders & Developers, for S+4 level from BDA. “Construction on the project has not yet commenced and will begin only after obtaining detailed plan approvals from BBMP and other relevant clearances…. The allegations of illegality made in BBMP… are incorrect.”

One of DLF’s customers, Pradeep Jain, said, “I had booked a flat on the sixth floor in. DLF then clearly said that it would get the approval for four floors by May and that for the sixth floor by November. Today when I called the company, it said it had obtained clearance for four floors and would mail me the clearance certificate.”

Impact of Satyam layoffs on real estate

We all know that Satyam cooked books. They had over 47,000  employees in various locations, primarily in Hyderabad. There is news that maybe 10,000 would be let go. The question is where will they find the "high" paying jobs. Everyone knows that service companies don't pay as much as MNC's and Satyam is one of the worst paymasters in this lot. I know several satyam folks who quit in US well before the scam since they were underpaid and overworked to the point of no return. Hyderabad has seen a boom which will rival no other city since AP folks are heavily  invested in lands, plots and apartments. The common acres to plots conversion technique is heavily ingrained in the local population and I was surprised to see many IT people buying acres on outskirts of Hyderabad just on speculation of the new airport in Shamsabad. Now with the airport hype dying down, and the disappearing  act of a regular paycheck, where does it leave Hyderabad. Maytas is another story and I know several people who have booked and now stuck with no exit. These folks are bleeding pre-EMI interest and will do so for years. It goes to show the due-diligence done by banks on properties in nil.

Here is a DNA article on Satyam layoffs.

Layoffs at Satyam set to begin with BPO unit

Hyderabad: Tech Mahindra, after gaining control over the troubled IT major Satyam Computer Services, seems to be getting straight to business.

The company intends to downsize operations beginning with the business process outsourcing arm Satyam BPO (formerly called Nipuna).

Sources in the company saidthe layoffs will begin with the support department. "The billable staff is not going to be disturbed now. It is the support staff that is likely to exit," the source said.

Satyam BPO has over 3,000 associates and the ratio of billable staff and the support staff is about 35:1. "The target is to make it 80:1. This means a major shake-up in the BPO arm," the source said.

About 60% of the support staff face the axe.

Tech Mahindra has decided to use Satyam's existing marketing, HR and other support functionaries for the BPO too instead of having a separate set-up.

Sources among employees said that there are about 80 people in the HR department alone and about 60 of them are likely to go.

"Particularly the support functions in both Satyam BPO and Satyam are obscenely overstaffed. Any effort to resurrect Satyam would happen only by rationalising these functions," the source said.

After small car, now a low-cost home from Tatas

After the launch of the world's cheapest car ‑ the Nano, the Tata Group is embarking on yet another low-cost dream. Tata Housing, a subsidiary of Tata Sons, has launched its low-cost housing initiative, with homes costing anywhere between Rs 3.9 lakh to Rs 6.7 lakh. CNBC-TV18's Priyanka Ghosh reports.

Tata Housing, a subsidiary of Tata Sons, today launched the project that will have 1,200 apartments under the Shubh Griha brand. To be built on a 63-acre plot in Boisar — north of Mumbai — the price range for the apartments would be between Rs 3.9 lakh and Rs 6.7 lakh. The project, whose timeline is about two years, is expected to clock a turnover of about Rs 100 crore, the company said. It is also learnt that the township will also have higher-priced homes above the Rs 3.9–Rs 6.7 lakh bracket. These may be in the price bracket of Rs 10 lakh and Rs 15 lakh.

The Tata Housing group also plans to take its value-home product, Shubh Griha, to other cities like Delhi and Bangalore this year and the company is looking for land parcels on the periphery of these cities.

When asked how the company would be able to keep costs low, it said their designs were innovative and that it had ‘some trade secrets’. Also, the Tata Housing group does not entirely own the land that it is building the township on. Here’s the deal: the group has tied up with the land owner and will work on a revenue-sharing model.

The group has struck an alliance with the State Bank of India and the bookings for the first thousand apartments started on Saturday and closes in about two weeks. After that, there will be an allotment through a lottery system.

Kiyosaki and Mahindra World City

Here is a good article I found on yahoo on buying value investments. Its a perfect article to illustrate why Chennai represents good value over Mumbai to live and make a career without take undue risk with housing investments. If Tata and Mahindra can find value, so can the middle class individual.

The other day a friend of mine approached me excitedly, saying, "I found the house of my dreams. It's in foreclosure and the bank will sell it to me for a great price."
"How good is the price?" I asked.
"Just before the real estate market crashed, the seller was asking $780,000 for the property. Today, I can buy it from the bank for $215,000. What do you think?" she asked.
"How would I know?" I replied. "All you've given me is the price."
"Yes!" she squealed. "Now my husband and I can afford it."
"Only cheap people buy on price," I replied. "Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it's worth the cost."

I then explained to her one of my most basic money principles: I buy value. I will pay more for value. If I don't like the price, I simply pass. If the seller wants to sell, he will come back with a better price. I let him tell me what he will accept. I know some people love to haggle; personally, I don't. If a person wants to sell, they will sell. If I feel what I am buying is of value, I'll pay the price. Value rather than price has made me rich.

Here is the Mahindra presentation on MWC. Land near this area is between 350-700 Rs for plots. In the next five years, one can easily expect this area to boom. the neighboring area of Singerperumail Coil is booming with houses, and so is Marmalai Nagar.

Chennai Facts

Publish at Scribd or explore others: School Work Study Guides, Notes, chennai fact

Sensex and real estate in India

With the sharp rally in the market, people have been questioning the impact of the recent uptrend to real estate prices in India. Some projections put the Sensex at 15000, some others say that this is a bear market rally and will fizzle out as the results get announced. There is another article I read which said almost more then half billion dollars of FII money went into the market in the past few weeks. This must have wiped out bunch of shorts, most local businessmen who shorted the sensex between 9k and 10.5k thinking the sensex will go back to 7.5k, the lowest level seen in the past 4 years. However the FII swooped upon the sensex in huge numbers and have wiped the bears out of the system. Goes to show the perils of investing in futures and options. 

If you read the first post in this blog it was made in Dec 2005, when the sensex was at 9057 and India was shining brightly. Now it is 3.5 years and the Sensex is 13,000 having visited 21,000 on the upside and 7500 on the downside. 

If one has to co-relate the market, even though any co-relation can be atmost be deemed co-incidental,  prices today are down 25-50% of the peak made in Jan 2008. Loan rates were lowest in 2003, when I remember Standard Chartered offering 8 % rates when I was in Bangalore. At that time, I could get a 3 bed for 30L the same today is at 80L. However in Bangalore one can easily find a 3 bed for 35-50L in some tech areas, same is case for Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad.

In Mumbai it is impossible to find any such deals except in far flung suburbs where one can break his back in the train commute. 

The question to ask is why should real estate be dependent on the stock market ? Real estate can be more co-related to the economic well being of a society, job security and availability of cheap loans. Expecting stock market profits to end up in real estate is at best fool hardy. I had several friends who bought 2nd houses on  loans in 2008 with the hope of paying them down with their stock market investments. With the wipeout in the markets, they are remorseful and regretting the whole episode of short term loss making trades. Now they live hand to mouth paying off their montly EMI's with their current salaries. With prices being down, they are in negative equity and bleeding every month. They are cut twice, once by the drop of their real estate values, 2nd by the interest they pay the banks and the biggest cut is the slicing of their portfolios by 70%. 

Please don't trade short term with the aim of investing in real estate. If you are investing in the market, it should be for a period of 4-5 years. If you buy real estate, buy the primary residence at minimum 30% discounts to the current price with a 40% downpayment. The cost of good night's sleep is priceless. Never compromise on this ever.

Obama says financial sector to shrink

Now if the financial sector shrinks, so do the financial epicenters. New York, London, Hong Kong and Mumbai could be easily affected by the downturn. The process of creating money from thin air is now sub-primed. As the financial sector shrinks so will all other sectors which support this sector, be it Information technology, travel, real estate or offshoring.  Now who will buy or rent all the commercial real estate in BKC or Nariman point at 2007 prices. Mr Bhai argue with Obama on why these prices should not collapse. If I had properties with loans in these areas of Mumbai, I would exit immediately. If Mr Ratan Tata, a Mumbai icon, wanted he could've built the next TCS campus in horrendously expensive Bandra Kurla, but he didn't. He built it in OMR, on the outskirts of Chennai where he got land for cheap. The photo you see on this blog is of the TCS campus. 

The Tsunami is coming and sub Rs 10000 prices in prime areas is on the horizon. Lets continue the 24x7 debate.

The Yahoo article is here.

By Jeff Mason – Sat May 2, 6:28 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The financial sector will make up a smaller part of the U.S. economy in the future as new regulations clamp down on "massive risk-taking," President Barack Obama said in an interview published on Saturday.

Obama, whose young administration has spearheaded a raft of reforms in the banking sector as part of efforts to tackle the financial crisis, said the industry's role in the United States would look different at the end of the current recession.

"What I think will change, what I think was an aberration, was a situation where corporate profits in the financial sector were such a heavy part of our overall profitability over the last decade," he said told the New York Times Magazine.

"Part of that has to do with the effects of regulation that will inhibit some of the massive leveraging and the massive risk-taking that had become so common."

Obama said some of the job-seekers who may normally have gone to the financial sector would shift to other areas of the economy, such as engineering.

"Wall Street will remain a big, important part of our economy, just as it was in the '70s and the '80s. It just won't be half of our economy," he said.

"We don't want every single college grad with mathematical aptitude to become a derivatives trader."

Fair price for an apartment in Mumbai/Pune/Bangalore

Now that we have got all the bulls charged up to challenge the bears, it is time to discuss what the right price to pay for an apt in the suburbs of Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore. We can discuss Delhi, Chennai, Hyderbad later.

Lets say I'd like to buy a 3 bed 1500 sq-ft ready possession apt with amenities, not in a noisy place, close to schools and work places and away from the slums and garbage dumps. Lets say my salary is 8L per year, I can get a 11% loan and of at-most 25L sanctioned. How much should I be looking at ? Note I'm not looking at under construction apts as there is no guarantee how long my money will be locked in and I don't want to pay pre-emi interest. My current rent is 20k a month and my other expenses are another 20k. As you can see I'm an average middle class invidual and not born with a golden spoon, and I don't have the capital to gamble on the Indian stock market exchanges. Its another story that my parents were govt employees and didn't take fancy to earning money under the table.

Now Mr Bulls will I be able to buy anything at this price or I just have to rent my whole life ? Give me my choices if you think I should become a bull and buy an apt. I invite any bulls in either of these three cities to come by and plead their case. I'm willing to relocate to any of the cities which affords me the apt I desire.

Will garbage dumping grounds affect real estate prices ?

I'm surprised Mundwa is chosen as a garbage dumping site as it is close to the city and adjacent to Kalyani Nagar and Wanawori. i guess now you can be close to the IT parks, airports and the garbage dump as well.

Source: The Indian Express Finally, two new garbage dump options
Mundhwa And Digraswadi, Finally, Two New Garbage Dump Options
Municipal Corporation proposes to cap Urali Devachi site and move on.

Mundhwa and Digraswadi could be come the new garbage dumping sites for Pune city. The Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) has shortlisted them as alternative sites to replace Urali Devachi, which it hopes to cap in a one year's time.

The upcoming area of Mundhwa, chosen for many future urban infrastructure projects, is around 6 km from the city while Digraswadi is in Shirur taluka, about 30 km away.

Following an agitation by villagers of Urali Devachi, Principal Secretary of Environment Valsa Nair had asked the PMC to cap the site and suggest, within 15 days, an alternative.

The PMC submitted the plan to the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB) on Monday. "The MPCB will have to ensure that the plan is implemented in the timeframe," Nair said.

MPCB regional officer P K Mirashe said the old site of 43 hectares will be capped. However, the site at Phursungi adjacent to the old site will be in use.

"Besides the Mundhwa and Digraswadi sites, 13 more locations in the district are being assessed as garbage treatment sites," said Mirashe.

According to the plan submitted, the PMC will take precautionary measures while caping he site. The area will get a proper effluent treatment system and be sprayed with chemicals to ensure an insect-free environment. The plan also mentions tackling of frequent fires by parking two fire engines at the site. An RCC water tank and water tankers will be deployed daily, said Mirashe.

Rediff: Housing prices could fall 25% more

From http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/apr/29/perfin-housing-prices-could-fall-25-percent-more.htm

Property prices have been on a slow but steady decline over the past year-and- a-half. Experts predict that this trend will continue and one can expect a 20-25 per cent further drop in prices in the next year or so.

While interest rate cuts by banks have been comparatively faster in being implemented, largely through the consistent efforts of the Reserve Bank of India [Get Quote], the builder community has been reluctant to follow suit with ready price cuts, even when the uncomfortable truth remains that there is no choice in the matter.

Cutbacks and compromises

Though the initial interest rate cuts and a discounted interest rate for the initial year introduced by some banks resulted in a lot of loan transfers, new loans did not pick up pace on the expected lines.

Another fact that contributed to this factor is the prevalent grim mood of the job market. People are wary of taking on new debt liabilities while struggling to meet their existing commitments. Builders who had been concentrating on high income groups and premium housing needs are now stuck with incomplete projects and lack of funds.

The builders, sensing the buyer's mood, slowly started to relent and made attempts at slashing property prices. Prices have definitely started to slide in favour of the buyer. However, there have been several instances where there have been compromises over the square feet area of the house.

For example, balconies have disappeared from floor plan, 1,000 sq. ft homes are being converted to 850 or 900 sq. ft. in a bid to make space for more apartments in a block, 544 square feet, single bedroom apartments which had practically disappeared are making a come back!

So, there have been a lot of cutbacks from the offerings of several builders to enable slashing of prices and yet not make deep dents in their profit margins.

On the other hand, builders have also entered into tie-ups with banks to offer discounts in the former of special lower interest rates, waiving off the processing fee, slashing the down payment rates, et cetera apart from other discounts of 10-25 per cent on the actual property from their side.

Market reports are suggesting a slew of new launches announced have a price correction of nearly 30 per cent in and around Mumbai and Chennai.

What needs to be done?

As price cuts are now a visible reality for builders they need to make the most of the existing situation and identify new opportunities to counter the challenge of debt and losses they are currently facing due to the credit crunch in the present and the realty boom of the past.

A bit of innovation, some significant changes in outlook and proactive help from the government could pull them out of the current mess.

Innovation could be introduced in many ways. New building materials that are more cost effective could be used, for example use of prefabricated cement blocks can reduce cost by around 10-15 per cent.

A possible tie-up between CMDA (Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority) and private players is in the discussion stages and there is dire need for mass housing needs for lower and middle income groups, which can provide some relief for private players who are currently struggling to finish projects.

Recent statistics reports suggest that the urban population currently at 328 million is rapidly increasing and will touch 576 million in 2030.

This means there is going to be a significantly huge demand for housing. So builders can take heart in the volume of requirements and adapt their real estate strategy accordingly.

Builders are also expecting the government to pitch in and bring down stamp duty charges, taxes, etc to make price reductions more feasible.

A strategic approach to affordable housing

A methodical analysis of income profiles across sections should be matched with housing requirements. Depending on the percentage of population in a particular price segment, housing requirements need to be planned and accommodated. This can be possible only if the authorities and builder groups get together and formulate a plan of action based on surveys and recommendations.

As housing is a key subject during the current elections, things are being implemented at a faster pace. In fact, one such development in the right direction involves a task force set up by the housing ministry in Jan 2008, with HDFC [Get Quote] chairman Deepak Parekh in the lead.

The committee has come up with significant ideas like revamping of State housing boards, upward revision of FSI (Floor Space Index), making available land conducive for construction, etc. More such evaluations should be brought to the table for discussion and accordingly new plans should be devised and implemented to evolve from the current situation.

This is a time for review and change. The learning gathered from the past year-and-a-half should be the basis for a brand new start.

The stage is set for a complete change in the real estate scenario that is more 'real' and 'affordable' to enable everyone to own a home.

The author is Head of Content & Research at BankBazaar.com

H-1B Visa curbs impact on outsourcing and real estate

Bindas Bhai has asked a very relevant question on the impact of H-1b Visa curbs on outsourcing. here is my analysis on that question and I will assess the impact to real estate in India as well. Others can chime in and discuss further.

Question :

Will IT revenues/salaries be hit by the H-1B/L-1B visa clampdown ?

Short Answer : YES

Long Answer : The revenue earned by IT service providers will decrease since the wage arbitrage between the salary paid to the H-1B/L-1B employee versus the hourly rate billed to the client will decrease. Its a well known fact H-1B employees are paid up to 40% lower then local US citizens or green card holders. Many IT service providers charge a hybrid rate or a blended rate to account for onshore and offshore resources. As the number of local onsite employees reduces, the blended rate will tend to decrease. As the revenue earned by the IT companies reduce, so does their inclination to grow the workforce in India, invest in training and hire more employees. The focus is now on cost-cutting be it reduced transportation options, decreased food subsidy and elimination of fringe benefits. All IT companies have a variable pay component which will reduce to zero or almost zero as they face pricing pressure, project cancellation and reduction in onsite billing.

The net impact on the IT service employee is that he has less income when offshore and reduced options to go onshore. Most IT employees factor the onshore component into their salary. Now since that component will be zero for the foreseeable future due to the visa clampdown, their ability to take more liabilities in terms of housing loans and car loans will reduce.

Will H1 visa problem increase outsourcing jobs in India ?
Short Answer : NO

Long Answer: Conventional wisdom will dictate that as H1-B's visa reduce, most work done by the H-1B's will move offshore or to the home country of the H-1B workers. However this is not the case this time. There is huge unemployment within the IT workforce as companies in every corner have cut any surplus employees and are operating with minimum capacity. There is still room for more layoffs and more employees are coming to the market as the quarter revenues keep declining and layoffs mount. There is increased pressure on local salaries and it is no uncommon to see pay cuts up to 30% in many cases. In the case of startups, there are some cases where people are willing to work for free to gain experience with the hope that the employer will hire them when the market turns around. I've seen some billing rates of $10-15 in this market, something which the IT offshore companies cannot match even in India. Tech salaries will continue to decline into the next year and it will not be uncommon to find someone with experience working for $60k, a level we last saw in 1997. As the minimum salary to be paid to an H-1b worker is 60k, there is no wage arbitrage left for the IT service provider. The bigger issue is the clampdown on L-1 visa. L-1B visas have no quota and were used by every IT provider to bring in Indian employees to work in client locations.

The most interesting quote I saw today was from Mohandas Pai, the Infosys CFO. He said we are trying to understand the meaning of the word "employee" as it relates to the new H-1B bill. This sums up the conundrum Infosys is in. If they hire more local citizens and green card holders, they lose the wage arbitrage, they have to pay severances if they layoff locals, they cannot employ the performance appraisal sham to boot out employees by giving tests like they do in India. They now have to play by the US Dept of labor rules, something they have resisted till now. All things considered they will be forced to hire locals, reduce offshore resources to operate more efficiently.

As any experienced professional will tell you, there is a 10x productivity difference between a top IT employee and an inexperienced employee. IT companies operate on the premise that they can hire lower paid fresh graduates in bulk and replace the experienced bunch as the experienced bunch moves onshore. Now with the H-1B clampdown the option to move offshore been taken away, they will be faced with more experienced employees earning higher salaries on bench. As with the sub-prime the whole model worked beautifully as long as the employees kept moving onsite Now that the flow has reversed they have to adapt to the changed scenario. Will IT companies fire experienced staff and replace them with new graduates ? If some of them do, who will hire these experienced folks at their high salaries. Either these folks join new employers at lower salaries or they remain unemployed.

As we discuss IT companies, they are mostly concentrated outside Mumbai. Their real estate markets they affect are mostly non Mumbai. If you look at the R2Iclubforums.com polls, there are hardly any NRI's moving to Mumbai. Most end up in Pune, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Gurgoan/Nodia. There is a trickle which makes Mumbai their homes after their return.

Now the question to ask is why will someone facing an uncertain future in India, with no hope of going onsite invest in a property of 1 crore ? This question is more pertinent to Mumbai more then any other place. All other cities you can get apts for under 50L, some even at 30L. Now if Mumbai is never considered an IT hub, apart from black money operators who has disposable income of 1cr or will get a loan of 80L in this market ? Now if still one believes Mumbai has headed for 50% jump in prices in the next few years, invest and check back in 2 years.

Nasscom in denial mode

Moneycontrol.com has an interview with the Nascomm chief to discuss the implications of the new Grassley/Durbin legislation on H-1B visa curbs. I find Nasscom defense to be absolutely weak and even a 10 year old will  have the IQ to understand why it holds no water. The bigger story here is the abuse of the L-1 visa by IT companies to shop Indian bodies to the US. Increased scrutiny of those applications will have bigger implications then the H-1b visa where according to Nasscom only 30% of the visa's are granted to Indian IT companies.

How this affect property prices in tech capitals is another story.

Don't see new H1B proposal turning into an Act: NASSCOM

Published on Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 20:50 , Updated at Sat, Apr 25, 2009 at 17:32 

Source : CNBC-TV18

US lawmakers have introduced a new bill with additional restrictions on H1 B visas. Ganesh Natarajan, Chairman of the National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), said if this proposal passes in the current format then it will have a fairly disastrous impact on the IT sector. “But I am hopeful that over the next three-months we will not see this really becoming an Act.” Meanwhile, Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said he is concerned by the contents of H1B visa bill by Senator Durbin and Senator Grassley. "The bill will restrict the ability of Indian IT companies to compete in the US market place. The bill is not in line with US President Barack Obama's stand against protectionism at the G20 meet and not in line with our desire to mainstream development in the Dohanegotiations." Also Read: US's new H1-B proposal anti-trade: NASSCOM  New H1-B bill wants Indian IT cos to hire more in US Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Ganesh Natarajan on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: This is not law as yet and it is only presented for legislation but what kind of an impact does this likely to have? A: If it passes the way it is, obviously it is going to have fairly disastrous impact because this particular piece of legislation is very different from the last time they presented.  This proposal also includes a provision called 50/50, which means that if you employ more than 50% of your people who are visa dependent, then you cannot employ more people with visas. So that’s very problematic. We have spent a lot of time with Senator Grassley and Senator Durbin and we hope that they understand the implications. The implications being that this kind of fly in the face of free trade, it primarily will target Indian companies. So I am very hopeful that over the next three-months we will not see this really becoming an act. Q: If this does go through what does this do to cost structures because this gives on site off shore a completely new meaning especially given the 50-50 provision? A: If a company is employing 5,000 employees in the US on a normal basis, 70% of them could be H1 or L1 Visas, it could literally mean that you will have to find replacement of about 1500 people and its not just the difficulty of finding the replacement but training them the cost involved, there could be a lot of business discontinuity and I personally feel that people will realize it when they go for the debate in the house, it wont get passed atleast certainly the way its being filed. Q: A lot of people in the US might be viewing this as a restrictive trade practice what Indian IT companies are doing in terms of explaining the situation as far as our position is concerned? A: We have had 3-4 meetings we worked with Tech-America which is the local association there, we have had sit down meetings with various people and they understand this. We even mentioned that this will specifically be seen as against India which is not a good thing and they have heard us and I think atleast the indication that we got was okay let this get filed, we will discuss it whether the US legislation discusses it before during and after the event, so that’s why I am not particularly perturbed, it could be disastrous if its passed in the current format but I am pretty sure that it wont.

Builder body opposes hike in cement prices

The builder lobby wants the government to appoint a regulator to oversee the cement industry. This should get the award for the world's smallest violin. "The increase in prices of cement is directly affecting the affordable housing projects.” Now we know why housing is so expensive in Mumbai. Its the cement stupid!!!

The Builders' Association of India (BAI) has strongly opposed the continuing hike in cement prices that is hitting the construction industry hard. They have also demanded setting up of a strict regulatory authority on the lines of SEBI that will ensure that unfair trade practices are not permitted from the cement industry.
The association has called for a total ban on the exports of cement. According to the BAI, the existing Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Commission (MRTPC) does not have penalising clauses to check the malpractices of cement companies. Anand Gupta, secretary, BAI, said that though the government has reduced the excise duty from 12% to 8%, exempted VAT, allowed free import, reduced rail fares, approved the use of fly ash, prices of cement have not reduced. And hence there is a need for a strict law to put a check on these.
While price reductions have been seen all around with a view to stimulate demand, cement manufacturers have resorted to a threefold increase in price (from Rs.15 to Rs. 30 per bag across the country) starting from February 2009. Sunil Mantri, president elect, MCHI, said, "The increase in prices of cement is directly affecting the affordable housing projects.”

Wall Street bankers in rage

NYMag has an excellent article on life after the crash for Wall St bankers. This is one of the best articles I've read on this topic and the comments are even better as they truly reflect the public's mood towards the wailing bankers.

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The Wail of the 1%
As the privileged class loses its privileges, a collective moan rises from the canyons of Wall Street.

CNN-IBN reporting on property declines

Reading the report it is still not clear why Pune prices are higher then prime areas of Bangalore. Sadashiv Nagar is Bangalore is one of the most sought out places to live in. How come this price is lower then Koregoan Park in Pune ? Most likely answer would be that the reporting of Pune prices is manipulated due to vested interests. Does anybody think otherwise ?

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If you have been unsure about the current state of property market, here are some definite pointers that suggest the rates are going down south. According to the latest reports released by Knight Frank India Pvt Ltd (March 2009), property rates across metro cities have dropped. The fall in rates are especially tangible in overheated pockets, which hitherto had witnessed phenomenal rise, such as Noida and Gurgaon in the National Capital Region; Goregaon, Borivili, Vashi and Mulund in Mumbai and Koramangala in Bangalore.
Here is a link to the pricing.