Thursday, July 30, 2009
Stock market bubble blog
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Bangalore periphery realty prices slip below guidance value
If Whitefied with all the IT parks can drop 30% offically, what about Devanhalli which has nothing but Greenfields :). In fact I know of deals in Shantiniketan taking place at below 3000 so the drop of 40% is not unheard of. Maybe a drop by 70% in Devanhalli is not a bad idea to start with.
BANGALORE: Bangalore’s realty market has thrown up a queer problem with property prices in peripheral areas falling below the guidance value set
by the government.
While buyers pick up property at prevailing (lower) market rates, they are having to cough up higher stamp duty for registration. This is because stamp duty is calculated on the guidance value set for each area/property.
“There could be strong case for downward revision of guidance value in peripheral areas,” says K R Niranjan, inspector general of registration and commissioner of stamps in Karnataka. Typically, the government conducts a valuation exercise around October every year and issues fresh guidance values based on property price trends.
If prices continue to be south-bound, the state will have to look at aligning the value to prevailing rates and this could well be the first downward revision in Bangalore. Instead of an annual revision, B S Shankaranarayanan, a legal expert in the realty sector, suggests timely and periodic revision of guidance values based on property price movements.
“This will help the public in cases where there is a price decline and enable the government to mop up more when prices go up,” he adds. And, like a builder in the Yelahanka suburb says, this is as good a time as any to bring about a correction in guidance value.
In a particular instance relating to Devanahalli, which witnessed a steep spurt in prices, given its proximity to the new airport, the value was revised during the year, a state government official says.
Requests seeking downward revision have started trickling in with buyers of the Prestige Shantiniketan project in Whitefield and builder ETA (for The Gardens project on Magadi Road) approaching the department.
The guidance value of Prestige Shantiniketan project is 3,200 per sq feet while it is Rs 4,200 per sq feet for ETA and hence, stamp duty would be calculated on these rates. But, realty sources quote the prevailing basic market rate for ETA at Rs 3,400 per sq feet while prices in Whitefield, where Shantiniketan is located, have suffered a very sharp decline of even up to 30%.
Typically, the guidance value is pegged approximately 20% to 40% below market prices to allow for escalation during the year. In the last three revisions, there has only been an upward revision of the guidance value. In fact, in April 2007, the revision was in the range of 100% to 300%, mirroring the realty boom. But, a builder says, the government hiked the rates when the market had already peaked out, marking the beginning of the downward curve.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Global warming, high tides and Mumbai sea-facing property prices
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Price rise is realtor strategy, not indication of market lift: report
Price rise is realtor strategy, not indication of market lift: report
A July 2009 report by HDFC Securities notes that over the last three months, there has been an average price rise of 3 to 8 per cent in Mumbai. “We believe this increase, by a few hundred rupees per sq ft, is being used as a tool to sway potential buyers to close deals,” it states. It notes that banks providing home loans have reported a significant increase in home purchases and approvals in disbursements have been peaked in the central suburbs.
Between May and July, Kalpataru has increased rates for its projects in Thane, Ghatkopar and Kandivli in the range of 5 to 8 per cent, Nahar for its Chandivli project by 7 per cent, RNA Corp for its Kandivli project by 10 per cent. A few like HDIL and Lodha, which had launched projects at relatively low rates, have hiked prices now, HDIL by 23 per cent at its Kurla and Versova projects and Lodha by 20 per cent at Dombivli.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Registration of Power of Attorney to become compulsory
The government of Tamil Nadu has proposed amendments to the Registration Act to prevent fraudulent transactions, evasion of taxes and stamp duty , writes R.L.Narayanan
Photo: M. Srinath
Changes underway: Rules relating to registration of Power of Attorney will be changed.
Recently, the Government of Tamil Nadu has proposed that the rules relating to registration of Power of Attorney will be changed and the registration of instruments of power of attorney will be made compulsory.
Further, it is proposed that the registration of these instruments shall be made only in the office of the Registrar of Assurances concerned having jurisdiction in respect of the property dealt with under the Power of Attorney is situated. Necessary a mendments to the Registration Act, 1908, are likely to be made shortly and date of notification for implementation announced.
The immediate concern for the proposed amendment is the large-scale prevalence of a system known as “Power of Attorney Sales”.
The Supreme Court has considered this terminology and the practice covered by the term in a case pending before it.
Gained acceptance
Broadly speaking, Power of Attorney Sales is the practice of registering Sale Agreement, Power of Attorney with or without Will instead of one Sale Deed or other deed of conveyance on payment of full sale consideration.
The practice has also been to register only one of the three documents mentioned above. This practice has gained acceptance in the market and also before various authorities.
It was noticed that where restrictions such as compulsory permission from the Authority concerned and where such permission was granted on the basis of payments to be made were imposed on transfer of flats, a hybrid system with a Power of Attorney Sale was effected by the allottee / holder of the Flat to avoid the procedures and fees to be paid.
Full article here
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Group buying using Twitter
For e.g a post can be
Buy : Pune : 3 Bed : Kalyani Nagar : 50L
or
Sell : Bangalore : 2 Bed : Jayanagar : 60L
I guess we can gain some traction if there are people and maybe go for group purchases.
I've created a twitter page IndiaBubbleApt
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Dharna by Maytas Hill County residents
A friend of mine helped me translate the 2nd video.
The NRI mom is lamenting the lack of security for investments for NRIs. Her son is in London and got lured by the promises of Maytas. He has been paying EMI for 3 years now with no sign of completion in sight. She believed the builders promises but now nothing is happening. The bank is not reducing the interest rate and the government is not doing anything and not taking action against Maytas.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Beware of taking a home loan from ICICI Bank: Consumer court levies 1 Lakh penalty
Excerpt:
"After completing all formalities needed to avail a loan, Goyal entered into an agreement with a home finance company and the bank. A loan of Rs 37 lakh, which was to be paid in 180 instalments in a period of 15 years, was sanctioned and he started paying the instalments from March 2005 onwards on a regular basis. However, a letter took him by surprise in August 2008. The letter allegedly stated that the repayment schedule through EMIs was being revised to increase the repayment time from 180 to 502 months. He immediately approached the bank's local branch and requested cancellation of the payment rescheduling but to no avail. "
Read the full article here:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Chandigarh/Bank-to-pay-Rs-1-lakh-for-overhauling-loan-account/articleshow/4750737.cms
This means that first ICICI bank agreed to give a loan for 15 years (180 / 12). Then using some obscure terms and conditions (who reads those anyway?), they hiked the tenure to 42 years (502 / 12).
42 years means your children (and maybe your grandchildren) will still be paying EMIs!!!
It is not humanely possible to read terms of conditions for each financial product, and clearly it is the banks fiduciary duty to adhere to the spirit of the agreement. I think any bank which shows such tendencies to violate fiduciary duty will exploit its customers.
Another issue is that of charging higher interest rates to existing home loan customers, and lower interest rates to attract new customers, but that merits a blog post of its own!
Can we share our experiences of taking home loans with different banks.?I have two home loans, one from HDFC and one from LIC housing finance, and the experience has been good so far (for the past 2 years).
Thanks to Ravi Karandeekar for blogging about the article.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Ackruti City's Q4 results worst amongst listed realty companies
Mumbai-based real estate developer Ackruti City’s fourth quarter results were the worst amongst the pack of listed realty companies. Due to negative sales, its net profit for the quarter ended March ‘09 took a big hit. Despite a slight improvement in the sentiment for the sector, Ackruti could not register any sales. In fact, it had to write off close to Rs 105 crore worth of FSI sold in the previous year. The company reported a 300% drop in net sales in its fourth quarter and its net profit turned red. It fell to a negative Rs 123 crore from Rs 22 crore earned in the December ‘08 quarter.
Sunday, July 05, 2009
Sea link hits Worli property prices
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Budget impact on Indian housing loans
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Understanding the long term trend with data
It would be great to have actual rates from various projects recorded over a period of time. This will help us to understand the trend of real estate prices.
The trend should be derived from data gathered from guys like us "on the street", not from some biased reports of property consultants.
The idea is that we can have a database-on-the-web to capture real estate rates.
With a few hours effort, I created a google spreadsheet to record the rates over time from a single project in Kothrud, Pune. The pricelists have been grabbed from the builder's website from March 2009 to June 2009.
The latest pricelist can be viewed here:
http://www.pethkarprojects.com/samrajya/availability.pdf
The spreadsheet can be viewed here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rmv0n4AJNHEfU_5RRg1I_bQ
Creating a chart, we can see that the rate is the same for the past 4 months!! Compare this with the boom period when rates used to increase every month. Definitely, real estate in Kothrud, Pune has flattened out.
The google spreadsheet is not appropriate for large amounts of data which can start pouring in from various cities, so I have also created a mysql database with multiple tables.
How to gather the data?
1. Quoted by builders - this can be done by gathering pricelists of the projects at exhibitions, or from the website of the builder.
From the pricelist, we need to calculate the carpet area (excluding terraces, balconies, and other non FSI related areas) and the total cost to the buyer (including stamp duty, registration, one time maintanenance etc i.e. everything).
The carpet area, total cost and date can be entered into the database.
Entering pricelists into the database will have to be done by moderators.
2. Posted anonymously by real buyers:
Anyone who has purchased a property can anonymously post the carpet area, total cost and date. The anonymous user is not allowed to enter data directly into the database, he can post in this blog and a few moderators like us who have write permission to the database will enter his post.
What if someone posts a misleading rate? I believe 1o people can lie, but 1000 people will not lie. When we have hundreds and thousands of unique users posting rates, the misleading posts become statistically insignificant. This is the same principle on which www.carwale.com operates.
Also a restriction is that a user can post only the rate for a property he has actually bought, so we can restrict posts to 1 post each month per email id.
People can also post links to builder's websites which have published pricelists.
There can be a discussion on how to allow anonymous posts.
We can have admin / moderators for each city, like I and someone else can do for Pune.
I can help with the perl code, sql and database, domain name, hosting, but I aint no website designer. Maybe we can form a team to collaborate on the website?
India's residential sector likely to see oversupply - Crisil
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's realty companies will struggle to find buyers for about a fourth of their residential space between 2009 and 2011, the research arm of rating agency Crisil said in a report on Wednesday.
During 2009-2011, Crisil Research said it expects absorption of 506 million sq. ft. over the three years based on its expectation of a GDP growth of 6-6.5 percent in 2009/10, according to its study of 10 cities across India.
Although planned supply has been estimated at 1,202 million sq. ft., this supply "is unlikely to materialise in full due to the credit crunch and relatively sluggish demand," and the actual supply will be around 700 million sq. ft., it said.
This indicates 28 percent will be in oversupply while much of the planned projects will be delayed by up to two years and others in the planning stage, shelved.
Indian real estate saw demand for housing collapse in the second half of 2008 amidst a global credit crunch and the local market became stressed with buyers fearing job losses, Sudhir Nair, head-Crisil Research said.
The market is expected to stabilise in 2010, he added, "the Indian economy will stabilise and start accelerating and there will be stability in the global economy and fund constraints will be eroded."
Builders had also reduced unit sizes and cut prices, which will help stabilise demand, he said.
Residential prices are expected to fall further by 8-10 percent in 2009 before stabilising the next year and Crisil Research expects investors to maintain a cautionary approach until values stabilise, it added in the report.
Real estate companies have been launching newer residential projects at lower prices that are located in "far-flung" locations from the central business districts of cities.
Rotten apples on the blog
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Resale home market fails to attract buyers
MUMBAI: The increase in the demand for housing in the past one month appears to be restricted to resale do not have too many takers, at least not in the large cities. In the case of new projects, developers have been offering attractive discounts, while prices in the resale segment have remained high.
Agreed Sunil Bajaj, another city-based property consultant, “The asking rate for old property market is not in line with the prevailing market rate. In Kandivali (a suburb in western Mumbai), the price of an apartment on the first floor on a per square foot basis was as expensive as the one on the penthouse in the same building.” He added that the flat has remained unsold.
Potential buyers have not been finding the going easy. Amit Desai, a Mumbai-based professional employed in a large business group, is one such person. “For a salaried employee, the rates for older property is out of reach since sellers ask for at least 30% of the price in black. This means you get a loan
Industry observers said new property has witnessed a price drop of 30-50% in the past six months that is the result of developers facing a liquidity crunch and falling demand. Some buyers have chosen not to go ahead with the purchase, as they feared the property might not be completed. This has led developers to offer schemes like getting the buyer to make a partial payment initially and pay the rest at the time of possession.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Psychology driven markets
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
36 South Starts Hyperinflation Bet After Black Swan
By Netty Ismail
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- 36 South Investment Managers Ltd., whose Black Swan Fund gained 234 percent in 2008, is raising money for a new hedge fund, betting that government efforts to pump money into economies could result in hyperinflation.
The Excelsior Fund targets returns that will be five times the average annual rate of inflation of the Group of Five economies -- France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. -- should the rate exceed 5 percent, Jerry Haworth, co-founder of the firm, said yesterday. Raising $100 million for the fund would be a “good” amount, he said.
“There is a sharply increased risk of greater than 5 percent inflation starting from now,” Haworth said in a telephone interview from London. “We are in the lag period between when the seeds of inflation are sown and when their off- spring, that is higher prices, are evident for all to see.”
U.S. President Barack Obama is selling record amounts of debt to try to end the steepest U.S. recession in 50 years, while Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has unveiled three stimulus packages worth 25 trillion yen ($261 billion) since taking office in September. Governments around the world selling record amounts of debt may devalue currencies against assets and spark inflation.
Most investors are underestimating the risk of inflation, Haworth said. Consumer prices in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, are set to rise 1.7 percent next year, following a 0.6 percent decline this year, according to the median of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Inflation Risk
“There is certainly talk about inflation but people might think of inflation at 5 percent or 6 percent,” Zimbabwean-born Haworth said. “We’re talking 5, 10, 15, 20 percent or more.”
Investor Marc Faber said on May 27 he was “100 percent sure” that U.S. prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, and the U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.
Universa Investments LP, the hedge-fund firm advised by “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb, is also adding a strategy betting that stimulus efforts won’t prevent deflation or could result in hyperinflation.
Inflation will likely be “very low” through 2010, said Alvin Liew, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. There will only be “a risk of very high inflation” starting in 2011 if governments fail to rein in “those excesses that they did to stimulate the economy in the near future,” he said.
“For now, I will be more concerned about how sustainable the growth recovery path is,” Liew said. “When we move into the later part of 2010, investors should pay more attention to inflation.”
Options
36 South’s Excelsior Fund will buy long-dated options it considers cheap and that “stand a good chance of outperforming in an inflationary environment,” Haworth said. Options are contracts to buy or sell a security by a certain date at a specific price.
The fund will wager on an increase in commodity and equity prices, bond yields and increased currency volatility.
“It’s a very high-risk, high-return fund,” said Haworth, who has been trading derivatives for more than 20 years as the former head of equity derivatives at Johannesburg-based Investec Ltd., and co-founder of Peregrine Holdings Ltd., a South African money manager and stockbroker.
The firm will be marketing the fund in the next three months.
36 South has closed its Black Swan Fund, which bet on risk- aversion events, and returned the money to investors after profiting from last year’s global markets rout.
Returns on the inflation fund “could be even higher than the Black Swan Fund though the likelihood is smaller as options are more expensive than they were when the Black Swan positions were bought,” Haworth said.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Home loan exemption increases
NEW DELHI:
The government is considering a proposal to hike income-tax exemption available for interest payment on home loans to Rs 2.5 lakh a Home Loan
Tax benefits on home loan year, to boost demand and rebuild the slowdown-hit housing industry.
The ministry of housing and urban development has urged finance minister Pranab Mukherjee to make an announcement to this effect as part of his Budget presentation in early July, a government official said on condition of anonymity.
At present, taxpayers taking housing loans are eligible for income-tax exemption on interest payment of up to Rs 1.5 lakh every year. Besides this, the repayment of principal amount is part of investments eligible for benefit under Section 80(C) of the Income-Tax Act, which has a ceiling of Rs 1 lakh.
The government has already identified housing as one of its focus areas, a fact highlighted by President Pratibha Patil in her address to both the houses of Parliament.
The existing tax exemption limit is considered inadequate at a time when a two-bedroom house in big cities costs at least Rs 25 lakh.
Considering a person takes a loan of Rs 20 lakh at an interest rate of 9.5%, he would pay Rs 1,88,493 towards interest alone in the first year. His annual interest payment in the first five years would be more than Rs 1.5 lakh.
If the exemption limit is hiked to Rs 2.5 lakh, then a person paying that much home loan interest in a year will save an additional Rs 31,000 in tax every year. This saving of over Rs 2,500 a month would be significant for most borrowers, making home purchases more affordable.
However, as per existing norms, the tax benefits start flowing in only after the construction of the house is completed, which usually takes 2-3 years in case of builder flats.
The housing industry has urged the government to allow for the deduction as soon as loan repayment starts, as it would give substantial relief to home buyers and boost demand.
The Budget documents do not provide an estimate of the revenue forgone on account of this exemption, but it is unlikely to be very significant.
Of the total Rs 38,107-crore tax revenue forgone on account of tax exemptions to individuals in 2007-08, nearly Rs 30,000 crore is on account of Section 80C benefit, one component of which is principal repayment on housing loan.
The housing sector in the country has been hit hard by demand slowdown, following a rise in interest rates. Besides lowering of home loan interest rates, the industry has been continuously pitching for greater tax benefit, as it had the potential of stimulating demand.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
A roof over one's head
HDFC says that the multiple that operates for housing in a Mumbai suburb is between 4.5 and 5.25 times annual salary. If 85-90 per cent of the cost of a flat is taken as a loan, and a 15-year loan has a monthly repayment instalment that is 1 per cent of the loan amount, then simple arithmetic tells us that 40 per cent of income is needed to pay back the loan.
Now, the average (or median) Indian family earned about Rs 1.31 lakh last year, or Rs 11,000 a month. Can it afford to pay Rs 4,400 every month on a housing loan, for a modest one-bedroom flat that costs Rs 6.5 lakh? Probably not. But if it could, or if it had a little more income, would it get a flat for Rs 6.5 lakh? Not in the big cities. The Delhi Development Authority, which is not known for quality work, sells a one-bedroom flat (450 sq ft) for Rs 8-10 lakh; the open market rates are at least twice as high. So it is easy to see why most middle-class Indians see home ownership as a distant dream.
But hold it; flats are now being offered for Rs 4 lakh by Tata Housing (covering 280 square feet, which may mean a room plus kitchen). A 450-square foot (one-bedroom) flat would cost the magical sum of Rs 6-7 lakh. Jerry Rao, the banker-turned-IT entrepreneur-turned-housing evangelist, has set up a housing company that will offer flats for Rs 7 lakh—with construction cost in the region of Rs 700 per square foot. These entrepreneurs seem to be dropping the total cost from Rs 2,000 per square foot to Rs 1,500. If they are successful, others are bound to follow their lead. And housing might then become affordable for the average Indian, if not quite the aam aadmi that the politician has in mind.
The big real estate companies, which have been focusing on housing that costs Rs 4,000-6,000 per square foot and more, have seen the light—in part because they have found no takers in today’s real estate slump. So they have slashed prices, in some cases by a half, and have been rewarded with a rush of buyers. The problem in India is that much of the cost of the roof over your head is on account of the land beneath your feet—which has been kept hopelessly expensive by the politician-builder nexus. This has prevented more land from coming into the housing market, which is why upscale flats in Delhi and Mumbai rival the costs of those in Manhattan (where the typical flat costs Rs 6 crore). If more land were thrown into the market, home ownership would not remain a dream for the majority, it would become reality.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Story of Bennett, Coleman & Co (TOI Group) and Real Estate Companies
Details:
India’s largest new company, Bennet, Coleman & Co. Ltd., (BCCL) has signed Times Private Treaties with over 200 companies in the past 3 years.
What is TPT?
TPT identifies growth rich but Advertisement shy comapnies (???!!) and gives them media space in BCCL platforms. In return, they get a share in Equity. Expected value of these TPT’s - Rs.1,700 Cr- Rs.3,000 Cr.
http://www.timesprivatetreaties.com/portfolio/list-as-per-industry.html
Why TPT?
BCCL believes that Indian market is commodity driven, not Brand driven. Only 14,000 brands are actively advertising in India. But in US there are 8 lakh active brands. Hence there is a future for brands.
Who is following?
HT Media, NDTV, Dainik Bhaskar, Dainik Jagran, Mid Day.
Conflict: Editorial lenience to TPT companies.
We could see the list (portfolio) of compnaies earlier in their website( which has been removed. I list the companies later from my memory. I noticed about these investments in 2003 and impressed by the idea(didn't know details) of Jain family but what happened latter is big let down for the indian public. There are no goverment controls at present but we expect a little ethics, social values, moral control and culture for media group with such long tradition.
List of companies from Mint
http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/14234923/F7C03521-A4FD-40D1-B769-A38A8D7DE369ArtVPF.pdf
I remember the list of companies as Sobha Builders, Rajesh Exports,Pyramid Saimira, JetKing, Peninsula and many more realty players.I guess we should stop reading newspapers like these which actually doesn't add any knowledge but only noise.
Here are the links for more understanding;
http://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com/2008/01/murky-ethics-on-part-of-media-and-firms.html
You can find many more links in Ajay's Blog.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/bennett-colemans-private-treaties-business-sees-sharp-value-erosion/357692/
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_private-treaties-a-public-and-investor-menace_1254804
http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/14234923/Should-private-treaties-be-mad.html
http://www.suchetadalal.com/?id=cc8c67c4-6674-207a-4947b1bb96dc&base=sections&f&t=CURRENT+ACCOUNT+(MoneyLIFE+Issue%2C+1st+Jan+09)
http://www.suchetadalal.com/?id=ee33e5a1-2d4b-8231-4a24f507414e&base=sections&f&t=Pyramid+Saimira%3A+Weak+Follow+Up
http://www.suchetadalal.com/?id=2f109f06-d1bf-afca-4a0176e5b38e&base=sections&f&t=Ring+of+Thieves
http://www.vccircle.com/500/content/bccl-picks-up-652-per-cent-in-sujana-industries-hats-off-to-times-private-treaty
I would like to get the views of our readers. I am sure many of you already knew but its good for those who still believe whatever newspapers say is truth and newspapers are run by the people who care very much about this poor country and its people.