Monday, November 29, 2010
Repayment blues to hit realty prices
Real estate companies, which are already under severe financial strain, have to make a bullet repayment of over Rs 14,000 crore in the next two months to banks. This will force builders to cut prices of real estate stock, especially residential units, to boost cash flows to help them repay dues.
The huge repayment burden in December and January was created when many banks restructured real estate loans for one and a half years in June 2009 under the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) special dispensation. “This is falling due in the next two months,” said a senior executive of a bank, who did not want to be named.
But a senior banker from a public sector bank said, “Real estate companies will have to drop prices and sell properties so that there is a regular cash flow into their books.”
The problem started when developers began to jack up prices, stifling sales at lower rates. This hit cash flows of developers. Banks aggravated the situation by helping developers to roll over debt by recording repayment on the due date and granting a fresh loan to the same company the next day.
This helped the bank to continue the account as a standard asset while the developer got funds with no pressure to lower property rates and generate cash flows. Now, banks are watching their real estate exposure and implementing strong checks.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
US warns India about possible WikiLeaks release
Another embarrasment is about to hit the Indian politicians and government officials.
This might help the 2G scam accused as the Wikileaks.org disclosures will dominate the news headlines on Sunday and the coming week. Any guesses what US diplomats think about Indian politicians and Babu's.
DNA India reports.
The US has warned India and other key governments across the world about a new potentially embarrassing release of classified documents by the whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks which may harm the American interests and create tension in its ties with its "friends".
"We have reached out to India to warn them about a possible release of documents," state department spokesperson PJ Crowley told Press Trust of India.
"We do not know precisely what WikiLeaks has or what it plans to do. We have made our position clear. These documents should not be released," Crowley said, ahead of the expected release by the website of millions of sensitive diplomatic cables.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Property prices could crash due to loan scam
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee directed state-run lenders to avert the reappearance of the loans-for-bribes scandal and recommended banks to go for a critical appraisal of all real estate loans above Rs 50 crore. This, however, may curb projects and drive developers to private funds, according to industry experts. On Wednesday, Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested 8 finance executives on charges of taking bribes to pass loans.
Liquidity for the sector could dry up since bankers look cautious to sanction fresh loans which in turn will force builders to reduce prices to enhance cash output. But for prospective buyers, this is good news as many have been holding on due to high prices.
DB Realty dipped to 10%, Indiabulls Real Estate lost 5.2%, DLF fell 3.8%, and Unitech declined 6%. Shortage of funds is now threatening to act as a major hitch for project execution. This is an important cause for concern as the sector is only recovering now after the economic hiatus of 2008.
Mukherjee said, “Banks and financial institutions should strengthen the NPA (non-performing assets) monitoring and management in their institutions to ensure that advance action is taken to identify incipient sickness and take appropriate action on it”
A Bank of India official said, “All big-tickets loans, particularly to builders, will come under the scanner now. Recall of loans can happen if there is a fear that the quality of loans may suffer. But as of now, there is no such worry and hence it would not prompt us to recall loans.”
Monday, November 22, 2010
2G scam, corrupt nexus between policiticans, business and the media
Forget real estate one can replace 2G scam with any other scam and the same nexus will operate with high efficiency.
There are also news articles which now put the stock market boom in recent months into question as the recycled corrupt money enters India thru Marutius and other tax havens.
Open Magazine has provided links to Barkha Dutt's conversation with Nira Radia. The media in India is the wolf in the lamb's clothing. Who will trust the messenger ?
Here are Magazine's links
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Mumbai realty gives affordability the go-by
Mr Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director of property consultant firm Liases Foras, said the prices are so high that “no one can buy”. Of course, if one limits his options, he can move that much further into the suburbs looking for properties that match his budget, he added.
Mr Kapoor said that while the average cost of an apartment in Greater Mumbai (municipal limits) was Rs 27 lakh in January 2004, it skyrocketed to Rs 1.47 crore in November 2008, slipped marginally to Rs 1.28 crore in June 2009 (when a correction set in) only to spiral to Rs 2.03 crore in September 2010.
Now, the preferred route for PE is akin to that of home buyers.
They move in at the project conceptualisation stage and book a definite number of flats or units for about 25 per cent down-payment at a pre-agreed price.
Property registration data for Mumbai indicate that after hitting a peak in property sales in December 2009, the subsequent monthly sales continued to decline till June 2010. While about 9,000 registrations were recorded in December 2009, only about 6,000 were recorded in February 2010. Preliminary field data show that there were only 4,500 registrations in May 2010, he said.
Monday, November 08, 2010
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
How can you beat this real-estate bubble?
As property prices are showing only a few signs of abating, analysts predict that a potential real-estate bubble is looming large. So how can you achieve your long-awaited dream of owning a house? Moneylife went into a huddle with some industry analysts to give you the answers
Solution No. 1: Work hard, jump jobs, do anything to reach an annual Rs40-lakh salary.
Solution No. 2: Forget Mumbai or Delhi, there are a lot of other urban conglomerates in this vast country.
Solution No. 3: There is strength in numbers.
Vikhyat Srivastava, former analyst with the Kotak Mahindra Group and co-founder of GrOffr.com, a real-estate site for group-buying, told Moneylife, "As a group, you can get a discount for any service. If a developer is selling 100 houses, and a group comes to buy 20 or 30 houses together, he would lower the prices for them as he would be able to do away with one lot. As a group, one can get a discount of about 20%-30% in real estate purchases."
If statistics bore you to death, consider this. Until now, buyers trading on GrOffr.com have been able to garner bulk discounts of Rs19.85 crore on a piece of real-estate which had a market tag of Rs93.5 crore for 88 flats. Do the math. That's a lot of money saved.
Solution No. 4: The pre-launch phase is the best time to buy. But there is a caveat, though.
Solution No. 5: Rent, don't buy.
Solution No. 6: Be patient, very patient.
"I expect a price correction but the focus has to come back to consumers. If the property price does not increase in the next three years, it in itself is a correction. There are chances that property prices may undergo correction by 10%. If it doesn't appreciate in the next three years, it's overall a 30 % correction."
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Must see video and article on the Kargil Adarsh society scam
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Prices go north as space ‘shrinks’ in Mumbai
Developers across Mumbaihave hiked project prices by 7-43%, leaving genuine home buyers in a fix. Worse, despite the price hike, the carpet area, or the actual space the buyer receives for his use in the property, is nowhere near the usual proportion of saleable area the developers used to offer. Earlier, developers used to give as much as 70-75% as carpet area, which has now shrunk to 55-60%.
Among the bigger realty brands, Lodha Developers has hiked prices 11-30%, Ackruti City by 10-42%, Dosti group and Godrej Properties 10-18%, Kalpataru Constructions 9-24% and Runwal Group by 10-25%, to name a few. All the developers have increased prices for properties in Thane and nearby regions substantially.
“Across all the major micro-markets, prices have risen by 10-30% since April 2010. This is after the 20-40% increases between October 2009 and April 2010. For example, prices in Borivli, are quoting Rs8,000-11,000 per sq ft, up from last year’s Rs6,000-8,000p sq ft.”
An analyst from a domestic brokerage, who spent the whole day trying to gauge sale conversions, said, “We waited the whole day, but hardly saw any inquiry translating into a sale.” An analyst from an international brokerage had this reaction to offer, “if you don’t work in the financial services sector, you can’t buy these properties; they are unreasonable.”
Will this Analyst Firm give their honest opinion to Media, I guess not....
Monday, October 18, 2010
Pay 10% of the flat value now and remaining 90% on possession
The 10:90 schemes have got such a good response. Buyers of such real estate projects have now become investors or rather traders. They are paying 10% upfront and buying a call option. If prices collapse, they will have to simply write-off the 10% they invested. We have heard enough that derivatives are weapons of mass destruction. These weapons appear to have entered the real estate now. Is it a prelude to a crash?
From the builder’s perspective, the scheme works because he gets potential buyers into the system. The supply which is coming in central Mumbai is huge, just look around the Parel landscape and you will get an idea of the number of buildings that will come up in the coming years. Kamala Mills, where our office is located, is in the epicenter; the world’s tallest tower is coming up on one side and world’s greenest tower launched by DLF is on the other. There will be about 13,000 apartments which could cost anything upwards of Rs4 crore each coming up in the central Mumbai area. To put it in perspective, in the last five years less than 6,000 apartments of somewhat similar quality have been sold. So we are talking about 21 pricey flats being sold a week over the next four years, which I think is too ambitious. Informed people tracking the real estate market say property prices overall will have to cool from these levels.
If at all prices remain high it would be due to failure by some builders to deliver their projects on time, which would reduce the supply in these areas. If all the supply materializes, then some builders will be forced to cut down their amenities and luxuries and make the prices more affordable to sell their flats.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Real estate prices hit the fast track in New Delhi, Mumbai
DNA invited some leading real-estate players to help readers understand the trends in the industry in Mumbai.
Prakash Shah: Mid-town means areas like Lower Parel. I don't see a price correction happening in distant suburbs like Thane where the price is about Rs8,000. That is affordable middle-class housing. That’s a place where land availability is still possible. Enquires and business are going on. There is reasonable demand and supply. Not at the same levels as in 2008, buta reasonable demand-supply position is there. And Rs7,000-8,000 is an affordable rate in Mumbai. Maybe in other cities I understand Rs3,000-4,000 is an affordable rate, but Mumbai has a peculiar way of thinking. Compare the prices of Central suburbs, which are around Rs8,000 a sq ft, with those of Western suburbs like Borivli-Kandivli where prices are around Rs10,000-11,000 sq ft. These differences will remain.
Anand Narayanan: In Delhi, you can just keep expanding. Manesar or Gurgaon. The Delhi model is to give the first investor all flats, who then sells them to a second investor and then to the third. In Mumbai, because land is scarce, the builder (except for the small part he has sold to original investors) normally wants to sell to the real user. It also ensures that the market does not get too speculative, and prices don’t fall. The flats may sell very slowly, but the builder can afford to wait because he does not have a million square feet to sell, with the knowledge that he can develop another million square feet tomorrow. That is why, in Mumbai, when I go and buy a product in Hiranandani or any of the good developers. there is a lock-in period. If I put in money today I may not be able to sell for a period of time which is a reasonable period of time. It could be as high as one year to three years. Then there is a high exit cost.There is a transfer charge which is designed to stop investors from flipping it and which can go as high as 15% of your sale value. These exit costs could be in the region of Rs50-100 per sq ft.
Article Link
when we talk of the possibility of a bubble, we’re actually only talking of property in Mumbai and Delhi right now.
The real estate market in Delhi led the correction, and Mumbai fell in line next. Both bounced back after the introduction of stimulus packages and the government’s actions in restructuring debt. During the revival phase, a large amount of capital sitting on the fences immediately saw an opportunity. This was first seen in the equity markets, and then later in the real estate and gold commodity markets - all three classes bounced back convincingly.
There is, therefore, a concern that these two markets have demonstrated higher-than- expected enthusiasm, especially in the central parts in the case of Mumbai, and Gurgaon and Noida for Delhi. A lot of investors have plugged in considerable amounts of capital in these regions, and the values, on an average, have now gone 30% higher than the last peak. Some of the residential developments in central Mumbai in 2008 had peaked at `30,000/sq ft. Today, they stand at 38,000/sq ft.
The kind of volumes that we have witnessed in the first half of 2010 has come down dramatically but the liquidity situation in the market has not dropped, and neither has the appetite for investment. In fact, the same enthusiasm, which had been previously contracted by the central parts of Mumbai, is now spreading towards the other parts of the city.
Thursday, October 07, 2010
Mumbai property rises above slums
A real estate boom in Mumbai is fuelling the building of elite high-rise apartment blocks, such as the 117-storey World One.
Their high-priced exclusiveness as they tower over the city’s slums, which house two-thirds of its population, highlight the growing gap between haves and have-nots in what is already one of the world’s most unequal societies.
“With the new buildings, there is much more segregation than in the Bombay I grew up in [during the 70s],” says Suketu Mehta, the author of Maximum City, the novel about Mumbai whose title has become a synonym for India’s financial capital.
Mumbai’s property market, Asia’s third most expensive, has staged a dramatic recovery from the global financial crisis in line with the country’s economy – expected to grow 8.5 per cent in the current fiscal year.
But the difference between this and previous real estate booms is the size and increasingly elite nature of the new buildings.
With no hope in sight of an increase in mass housing for lower income earners, the new buildings will only serve to underline social inequality in Mumbai, known as India’s “City of Dreams” for its Bollywood movie industry and powerful tycoons.
“Most of the people I know in Bombay ‘high’ have no interaction with Bombay ‘low’, except that they look down upon them from a great height, like barons in medieval fortresses,” says Maximum City’s Mr Mehta.
Monday, October 04, 2010
ET interview with Pranab Mukerjee
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
At Rs 1.91 cr, average cost of flat in Mumbai now at all-time high
Monday, September 27, 2010
India Just Broke Its Record For Most Foreign Investment In A Single Year
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Forget Mumbai, the real bubble is in Ahmedabad
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Bad realty loans threaten to nibble at banks’ pre-tax profit
Home prices have shot up as developers keen to cash-in on the booming economy have bid land prices to new highs in land-scarce cities like Mumbai. For instance, last month, city-based Neepa Real Estate paid Rs 830 crore for an 18-acre plot in Andheri, Mumbai. Earlier, Indiabulls Real Estate successfully bid over Rs 1,900 crore for two NTC mill plots — the 2.39-acre Poddar Mills and the 8.37-acre Bharat Textile Mills property.
Sanjay Dutt of Jones Lang LaSalle, in his blog, has raised the prospects of a real estate bubble in pockets like Mumbai, pointing out that some properties in central Mumbai peaked at Rs 30,000/sq.ft in 2008 and today stand at 38,000/sq.ft. “There is yet another reason for the concern over a bubble building on the market. All developers who had ventured to buy land overseas or across India are now buying only in their primary cities. In other words, Mumbai developers are concentrating on acquiring land solely in Mumbai, and the same is happening in Gurgaon. Investments are now chasing these Tier-I markets, and if this continues, there is certainly the probability of a bubble in residential property by the end of the year,” he said.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
RBI hikes interest rates to tame inflation
MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank today raised its key short-term lending rate by 25 basis points and borrowing rate by 50 basis points to check rising prices.
" Inflation remains the dominant concern in macroeconomic management", RBI said while raising the repo (lending) and reverse repo (borrowing) rates to 6 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.
The new rates, which comes into effect immediately, were announced as part of the first scheduled mid-quarterly review of the monetary policy.
The hike in rates will lead to a rise in cost of funds for the banks and eventually makes loans expensive, which will reduce consumption.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Builders resorting to distress sale?
Hiral Shah, who has been scouting new residential projects in Kandivali to buy a house, got two rude shocks. “No one is quoting less than Rs 1.2 crore for a 1,000 sq ft house in Kandivali! And surprisingly, I also discovered that almost half the flats I saw in the two new projects were vacant,” said Shah.
Even as developers maintain that sales are brisk, crevices are beginning to show up, and one indication of this is that some developers are resorting to distress sales – disposing of homes by offering as much as 40-50 per cent discount. Zen Towers in Tardeo is a case study. Set to complete in December this year, you can buy space for Rs 15,000 per sq feet as opposed to the market rate of Rs 25,000.
But here’s the catch: you must make a bulk buy of at least 10,000 square feet.
“The market is over-heated, and with a price correction being anticipated, investments are drying up. Though big builders can hold on, it is the small players who have started to feel the pinch, and are creating distressed assets even as market sentiment is positive,” said Atul Khekade, partner, Netz Realty, a property consultancy firm that has sensed opportunity here.
A builder, who is selling bulk stock at 40 per cent discount, said on condition of anonymity, “As big builders go on increasing rates for their projects, the average market rate is pushed up. They get funding through FDIs or big private equity firms. But when rates reach a brink, even investors who fund small projects like mine become wary. One Gujarati investor group that had promised to pump some money into my project backed out. Now I am desperate.”
Real estate analysts speculate the cracks could widen. Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director, Liases Foras said, “Creation of distressed assets is an indication that the residential market will undergo a correction, which could be to the tune of 25 per cent in the short term. This is not just because property prices are unrealistic, but also because a chunk of flats are being traded by investors instead of being bought by actual users.”