"Residentials hot, commercial space not.
With developers forced to return to the drawing board to make projects financially viable, the landscape is, indeed, changing."
Many commercial property areas are supposed to be only commercial. Its a way to ensure that there is uniform distribution of activities and that there is equitable growth withing the city's numerous sub sections. Also these builders claim incentives like cheap electricity and water from the civic authorities for commercial projects.
India has none or non existent zoning rules, you can mix educational, shopping, recreation, residential, commercial and industrial units in any city block without any awareness of consequences. Does this mean that zoning only for demarcating and industrial land. Why should a builder that owns a piece of land intended for commercial use - that can generate thousands of jobs and provide nearby residents place to shop, be allowed to switch to residential plans. Such haphazard plans not only lead to uneven development, it gives rise to unnecessary skewing of prices.
The same article also quotes
"Inventory days in the two cities have fallen back to early 2008 levels or better. However, the overhang in Bangalore, Chennai, Gurgaon and Hyderabad remains significant with at least 15 months of inventory in the pipeline," Goldman analysts Vishnu Gopal and Aditya Soman wrote.
Well, if GSachs is right, then I don't see how the over supply is going to be filled at current rates. In cities like Pune, there have been lot of shady dealings where builders have given huge discounts but have prolonged delivery of the house. This very similar to the years 1997-2000 where rates were decreasing but not collapsing.On a Lighter note with the swine flu scare, I am hoping the rush of people to the city will at least pause :) and open some window of opportunity. :) FYI I genuinely think Pune will bottom post Diwali - at least in suburbs.
45 comments:
The "Green Shoot" theorists have been kicked in the face. The bigger bubble ( forget about the Subprime Mortgage Residential Loan crisis) is about to be burst.
Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions .
August 16, 2009 John Lounsbury - Confluence of five factors
1] Banks Are Not Doing Enough Business
2] Banks Are Failing at a Rate Not Anticipated Two Months Ago
3] Defaults Are Going to Increase for Several More Quarters
-With home mortgage foreclosure rates remaining very high (and possibly increasing) and with the bulk of the commercial real estate defaults yet to come, the failure rate of banks is likely to increase further in the next nine to twelve months, not decline. The situation will be compounded if commercial and industrial (C&I) loans also default at higher rates because of a weak or non-existent recovery.
4] The FDIC Is in Trouble
5] We May Be Going to Historic Lows in Bank Credit
Folks,
Builders are doing the right things. They need to survive to protect the country's economy. In case housing goes down, India's growth will will go down by 70-80% as the only growth in the last 4-5 years was primarily driven by housing and its spillover effects.
So, let's all think about India and wish good for India. I still feel that no matter what the builders try, or the Govt. try, the housing market in India is at unsustainable levels and will drop by 50-60% in coming years. There has always been a lag of 2-3 years with US. So, by 2010 it should start going down and may take at least 10 years to correct.
This winter is going to be bad for India and Indians:
--Monsoon issue.
--Swine flue can escalate.
--Indians are in denial mode about housing prices.
--Major layoffs coming to India.
--Massive paycuts for a lot of highly paid idiots.
If even one bank like ICICI fails, Indians are screwed royally as the Indian Govt. only covers upto 1 lac rupees per account in insurance amount. This would lead to a massive outcry and bloodbath on Indian streets.
'Best time to buy real estate'
TNN 15 August 2009, 01:34am IST
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/city/mumbai/Best-time-to-buy-real-estate/articleshow/4895369.cms
Anon@11:24 PM
Thanks for the jokes of India! or as someone termed it the toilet paper of India..lol
The builders are saying the market has bottomed out and we should buy? Ha Ha Ha Ha...I better go for my cheque book, since these are honest and unbiased folks who will give me honest advice.
They are saying RE is a tortoise growth rate? While in the last few years the growth rate has been upwards of 500%!! Maybe they are confusing the tortoise for the hare! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha...
Remember the hare goes to sleep and loses the race to tortoise? So we will sit on cash and wait for this hare in the guise of tortoise to go to sleep...
Don't be under false impression that if real estate comes down, India will plunge ...
You think builders or anybody can easily default on their loans? Try defaulting on your loans, and the banks will have you ruined ...
There is a definitive reasons behind why Banks readily gave loans for real-estate. Coz, those are the easiest one to recover. You don't pay back the loan, u'll loose your property + the money that u have paid till now ... That's all is the simple funda.
Hi All
In the Last few posts we got to know about Bindas Bhai's profession. He seems to be a rich person with heavy interests in real estate. As confessed by him he seems to be a developer or may be a broker. I don't know if this forum is only for middle class people, but I have a gut feel that most people here are those who have a dream to get a 2-BHK in their city.
People like BB who have manisfested interest in high RE prices will keep posting false / misguiding content on this forum. This forum should give the real picture of real estate in India and should not be allowed to become platform for brokers/ developers manipulating middle class people by their agenda.
I seriously feel that BB is not spending so much time here on this blog just to educate and help us people. He has a malicious agenda to be here.
I strongly feel that he should be blocked from this forum. Let the real analysts be on this forum.
Property prices might not go down, but definitely housing should & will become affordable ...
What developers should think: Rather than having their greed and building waste flats, they should make plans that attract people, and keep up their promises when building flats. You make affordable flats, and give boxes of 500 sq. feet some where 30 kms outside the city ... Without having common sense that not even the lower middle class would prefer going there ... What profitable business is this?
Make realestate a more rational and attractive market - that way u'll survive in business. Commoditize housing, u'll have nice sustainable business. Understand need of people and come up with suitable projects satisfying those needs. Indian developers are idiots, don't realize all these things, instead they only look at short term greed and sacrificing their long term sustainability.
Looks like there is a storm brewing in TCS.
We had a meeting of higher ups today and at the end of which some 80% of my former projectmates have been sent home.All in a day.Now the team leader has no team. And he himself is on the bench.
I wonder why then they say they are going to recruit people when they are actually releiving them.
And the fate of all those college students who have got an offer letter seems to hang in balance.
Maybe just keep them on bench for a month and send them home perhaps.
I wonder when my turn is.
K.Gokul
For infra majors, nothing drives like the metro
The project spells rich dividends for both DLF and IL&FS. DLF has very high stakes in its land banks, much of which is in and around Gurgaon. The metro rail linking his projects to Delhi will push up the value and saleability of his properties. It helps IL&FS too, because it is one of the largest investors (both directly and indirectly though other entities) in real estate around the country and also in and around Delhi and Gurgaon. Moreover, by setting up a metro rail project, it hopes to use this as a proof of concept for bidding for more such projects across the country.
Buying a house: Sellers now accepting white money
MUMBAI: Good news for property buyers. The obnoxious black money, or the unaccounted cash component, for buying a flat is slowly fading out with buyers calling the shots in a market still being rebuilt after crumbling in last year’s financial storm.
Nearly one-third of all mortgages underwater
August 14, 2009 12:03am
Nationally, more than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30 , according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic.
Negative equity, often referred to as "underwater" or "upside down," means the borrower owes more on their mortgage than the home is worth. Near negative equity is when mortgages are within 5 percent of being in a negative equity position. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination of both.
Gokul,
This is sad... I'm seeing a different set of companies different set of strategies. Ex: TCS, Infy and Wipro seem to be laying off people and protecting their margins.
CTS and HCL are getting aggressive and getting new business...
Companies like Mindtree are not laying off people and taking the hit on OM
Multi nationals like IBM,HP are firing jobs abroad and keeping folks in jobs in India....
In these times, it might be better to be working of either HCL, CTS or mindtree....
@Jey,
Actually, the better companies are CTS and MindTree..
Avoid HCL.
Gokul:
Is it in India or US ?
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Foreclosure filings in the U.S. climbed to a record for the third time in five months in July as falling home prices and the recession left more homeowners unable to keep up payments or refinance.
A total of 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month, according to data seller RealtyTrac Inc. One in 355 households got a filing, the highest monthly rate in RealtyTrac records dating to January 2005, the Irvine, California-based company said in a statement.
“We’re in a deep hole,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said in an interview. “There is a whole new wave of foreclosures tied to the cyclical dynamics of the economy.”
Foreclosures increased as the U.S. recorded another 247,000 job losses in July and home prices fell, leaving an increasing number of mortgage holders owing more than their properties were worth. The median price of an existing single-family house dropped 15.6 percent to $174,100 in the second quarter, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders are underwater, property data firm Zillow.com said Aug. 11.
“There are a slew of factors showing fundamental weakness on the demand side: tighter underwriting, job loss, investors who’ve been badly burned,” said Stuart Gabriel, director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate in Los Angeles. “We have not seen the bottom of the housing market.”
I see a lot of Indian people leaving the US. A lot of fresh grads are not getting jobs. A lot of H-1Bs are also not getting contratcs renewed or being laid off.
Once they all go back to India, there will be a surplus of employees and thereby suppressing the wages in India. And what happens to the RE market in India. It is fucked.
I just want to see a lot of these freah MBAs go back who think MBA is the key to success in the world and thr B-Schools charging 100K for the degree in US.
Anon 4:14 and 5:30 are the same person. i.e Retired Old Man who is frustrated and getting personal with his childish behaviour.
Bindas Bhai
It seems Retired Old Man's bashings are still hurting BB. ha hah . He appears obsessed with that guy. We hope he is not coming in your dreams :)
Vik the abuses at 5.30 have definitely been posted by Bindaas Bhai,.. who is frustrated because he has declared that he is a RE broker / developer and now people would not listen to him.
Please delete the abuses that BB has posted. Vandana Mohan can you please find out who is abusing on this blog?
I think this blog welcomes discussion from both sides i.e, bears and bulls. Vik clarify if this is wrong.
Then why are you guys bashing BB for his bullish views. I dont think any one can influence a person to buy or sell realty by just writing a blog. He should biggest idiot in the world, if he takes decision based on this blog.
Everyone is entitled to their views and are correct in their perimeter.
Take good points from vulture, BB, shailesh etc and take final call based on your wisdom.
Stop bashing BB just because his views are against yours.
check this scary post on the US housing market. Not all markets are equal. Mumbai might get hit more then bangalore due to large disparities in the price/income ratio
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/brace-for-wave-of-foreclosures-dam-is.html
ANON @ 10.10
I don't agree with your views. The internet and published content does have an impact on buying decisions of the customers.
Last week I was meeting a consumer activist and she mentioned that a lot of consumers are coming together and boycotting products. She also stated that a particular motorcycle brand has 25000+ registered people boycotting it. Forums like Blogger, Orkut etc.
The moment these consumer groups become large they become a threat to the manufacturers.
If this blog is being read by 50,000 people and they start feeling that prices of houses are unjustified and bound to fall they will defer their purchase. The already suffering Real Estate will suffer further. therefore to plant their agenda companies hire paid bloggers / professionals (may be like BB) who try to influence and break the user groups. Normally only like minded people join a forum, and exceptions with diametrically opposite views mostly the cases of paid bloggers
Being bear and bulls is one thing but having leechs in the discussion forum is not good. You can all observe how the level of discussion has gone down since BB has started on this forum. The focus from Housing Bubble has shifted to BB bashing. This is what he is wants to achieve. He sweared never to post on this forum and returned again with same posts.
A guy earning a crore a month and so much affinity and time to spend on this blog. Sounded very strange to me.
Posting abusing comments is awful and should be discouraged.
RKA
RKA,
BB is a must for this blog. Infact he brings in a different point of view. I used to hate this guy but now i take him seriously, this helps me taking an informed decision. Kindly dont abuse him or glorify him. People with different point of view can always ignore him.
Like you even we want to buy a house but that does not mean that we should abuse guys like BB. Kindly ignore his comments if it does not suit you. The last thing we want in this blog is Taliban mindset.
RKA/Anon 9:11
We trust BB more and we strongly beleive that BB is not posting this abusive comments. By now we all know who is behind this.
Navi Mumbai airport on hold for a year
Mumbai: The wait for the Navi Mumbai airport is all set to get longer than one would have imagined earlier. The ambitious project won't start off for at least next one year before the IIT, Bombay completes a detailed study on its environmental aspects.
The project's fate hangs on the outcome of the study that will be submitted to the environment ministry next year. Facing troubles from the government, the City and Industrial Development Corporation of Maharashtra Limited (CIDCO) has put all the work relating to the project on hold.
Anon @ 2.36AM
Please let others also know who posted the abusive comment.
Anon @ 2.33AM
I am not against BB posting on this forum till these are views & opinioins and not "augured predictions". He / She can continue posting as long as abusive language is not used. A different point of view is welcome. None of us can predict what will happend and so people need to express views with a humbleness & kindness.
Housing is a basic need of a person and some posts make fun of people who stay in rented houses as if they lack brains.
As far as using abusive language is concerned comment moderation is needed.
RKA
Why are you getting so personal against BB, who are you? I think you seriously need some counselling.
If you track the blog you will realise that others need your advise and not BB.
For God sake stop talking about BB. We are more interested in knowing RE and not BB.
Fuck BB and all Anon's talking about BB.
Vik: Banks in US are holding a lot of houses and are not releasing them them due to fear of another RE price crash in US. But they cannot hold for long and prices will plummet further this winter.
India always lags behind US by a few years. I'm not worried as the RE in India will also go down by 50-60% in coming years.
Anonymous @ 5:36 AM
Hi Chembur Hunter Here
So people have come down from 80 % to 70% to now 60% ha ha ha,,,
Now tell me 60% drom means residual ( remaining value) is 40 % right – as I learnt maths ( no pun intended) where 100-60=40 – or PLEASE SOMEONE TELL ME IT IS SOMETHING ELSE!!
Man I started dreaming big! As my budget is 50 L and worst case I can sell my current house and arrange 15 L Extra ( I am not talking about LOAN that will be above it!) so I can stretch upto 60 L
Now If a 1 crore property is going to become 40 L according to you –then 1.5 crore property is going to become 60 L and 1.75 Crore property will be 70 Lack right? THIS IS SIMPLE MATH –RATIO PROPORTION NOT ANY FANCY PREDICTION MODEL WITH TRIPLE INTEGRATIONAND LAPLASE TRANSFORMS .OR YOU LAERNT DIFFERENT MATHS
So if I’ll wait for some time ( don’t know when it will be) I can dream of Bandra right !!
Now yes my other property will fail but again my 50 L will be accumulating interest right???
So read this – I think I am a fool but don’t know why a this Anonymous @ 11:11 am laughed at me?
( This is comments from one post earlier)
**************************************
I wrote
--------------
Chembur Hunter here ...
My dream area is really bandra - so as per sailesh and pessimistic team my 50 L should fetch a 2 BHK + 2 parking home in bandra in 2 years am I right?( Current value appx 1.5 Crores)
Do anyone believe this will happen?
Anyway shailesh know any builder personally? I know one smalltime one and frankly these guys are not worried -in fact hopeful.
NOW Anonymous @ 11:11 Wrote
--------------------------------
Chembur Hunter / BB
You are so hilarious..changing names, changing sentence construction, but remaining the same BB. You want a 50 lakhs flat in Bandra? Why not Peddar Road or Worli Sea Face? Ha Ha Ha Ha
Look at yourself..so funny. I think that's one of the reasons I come here to read your comments. Its definitely worth a laugh most times!!
MY ANSWER WAS – AND READERS AM I WRONG WITH MY MATHS???:) Please let me know
-----------------------------------------------------
Anonymous @ 11.11
Chembur Hunter Here - and I am different than BB
I am not the laughing stock but people like you who are predicting 70% fall across India - you are living in fool's paradise!
YOU said 70% fall is possible AGAINST today's prices right so remaining value is 30% ( As per math I learnt 100-70= 30) IS THIS RIGHT MEANING OF 70 % FALL?
Now In bandra good 2 BHK is available @ 1.5 Crore - Assume @ 1.7 Crores - Now after 70% fall predicted by YOU remaining value is 51 L ( 1.7 x 0.3 = .51) I think math is right ? :)))
Remaining 4-5 lack like Stamp duty Registeration, Commission I can arrange
1.5 Crore flat post 70% fall is 45 L + 5 l = 50 L -is my budget
SO DEAR SHALL I WAIT FOR 70% FALL ? HA HA HA
YOU said fall is 70% not ME and when I just gave an example you started laughing?
And I say being crorepati is NO big thing in Mumbai - those who are born n brought up and bought homes apart from parental homes at right time ( i was late but slightly)- without stressing finances became crorepati due to property valuation!
You are laughing ,but seriously I am telling you check your family net worth - libalitiex and you may be touching that figure of 1 crores!!
I AM NOT DREAMING OF BANDRA -BUT LEAVING IN HARSH REALITY THAT 50 L IS NOT FETCHING A DECENT ACCOMADATION IN CHEMBUR
You have been priced out by the market in Chembur just as my parents were priced out of the market in Malabar hill 30 years ago. the best you can look is to buy where you can afford. The whole point of taking loans to make large purchases which you can default on is dangerous. We have seen how it has played out in the US. If you depend on the job, and the job goes away, what will you do ? Already I heard IBM is asking people from Bangalore to move to Indonesia. The race to the bottom will affect everyone. If you have surplus cash and can withstand a shock in the prices, and have enough covered up for the rainy do, be my guest. You can buy in Malabar Hill or Colaba.
Anon @6:54Am:
You have to be patient. I waited in US for 5.5 years. My parents started pressuring me in 2002 and I finally bought in 2008.
I saw the whole cycle of boom and bust and when I finally bought, the price was 60% below the peak price in US.
Why do you want to buy when the market will not appreciate. Why can't you rent on the interest money of 50Lacs. It gives you 50K rupees per month in interest, why can't you rent something nice where ever you want.
Buying makes no financial sense in this market. That is what I did in US, just waited till it made sense to buy. The moment I felt my mortgage is 1.25 times my monthly rent for the same house, I bought.
Now, all the people who rushed into the market in the boom time are complaining.
People would have to be patient and calm as there are very strong forces trying to keep the market propped up which is really unsustainable for Indian economy.
India is on the verge of major layoffs. The Sensex is artificially inflated. Unemployment and salary cuts is going to take the steam away from Indian markets.
Jobless spike compounds foreclosure crisis
By Renae Merle
updated 12:36 a.m. ET, Tues., Aug 18, 2009
Economists estimate 1.8 million borrowers will lose their homes this year
WASHINGTON - The country's growing unemployment is overtaking subprime mortgages as the main driver of foreclosures, according to bankers and economists, threatening to send even higher the number of borrowers who will lose their homes and making the foreclosure crisis far more complicated to unwind.
During the first three months of this year, the largest share of foreclosures shifted from subprime loans to prime loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The change to prime loans -- traditionally considered safer -- reflects the growing numbers of unemployed who are being caught up in the foreclosure process, economists say.
Vik n all'
Chemburhunter here.
Thanks for balanced responce..
I myself is laughing , but I want to ask whether my maths is right?? I mean post engineering and mba this kind of basic maths should be right? ok!
Anyway chembur will be my capital gains purchase -now you will have clear picture - and i have just 18 month to buy propert SOMEWHERE .and anyway I've another flat and yes my wife have another and my parents stay in their flat..
my obsession with chembur is cause it is close to my wifes office and it is kind of central location to goregaon ,dadar & church gate....
given all the money n opportunity definatly i'll love to stay in malabar hill.churchgate,colaba,bandra :)))))))
Chembur Hunter.
If you are an engineer from some degraded engineering college (private colleges) and MBA from some Amity or Capitatation Fee B-School, your Math will be wrong.
Don't be so proud of your degrees. Road side baniya will beat the shit out of you in maths.
Get well soon. You seem to be suffering from Sudden Optimism Syndrome.
RKA @1:52AM
Sorry for late reply, cant spend much time on internet for obvious reasons. :)
I do agree that electronic media influences people while making a decision. But up to certain extent.
If a person when investing more than 15-50 lacs, if he goes by whatever blog or columnist says. No matter what bears try, he will get manipulated by brokers or builder no matter how.
If I am investing in chembur, I take BB's comments as just a point, I do the ground work check the reality before buying.
The point is if a buyer gets manipulated by reading comments, he will get cheated no matter how.
Thats all the point was. I rest my case here.
Anonymous @ 9:33
Chembur hunter here
Tell me where I am wrong and If you understand sarcasm I am not at all optimistic ....ha ha ha I say I am laughing on you!!!and I am NOT expecting prices will CORRECT to this extent ......
Bein polite i am saying that I am enginerr from one of the to 15 Engg college from Mumbai Univ and MBA fro finest college frm Mum Univ which is top 10 in India
Yeh I was bad in maths that is why CAN YOU FIRST POINT OUT CALCULATION ERRORS !!!
anyway CAN I KNOW YOUR CREDINTIALS AND YOUR EXPERTISE IN MUMBAI PROPERTY PLEASE ? pls pls
I am sorry as you lack basic intellectual level to undersand my sarcasm and I do not expect any mathes understanding from you
I am pointing out that you say x% will be devaluation and when I put numbers in equation -real numbers you say it is wrong !!! Ha ha ha
VIK tell me is my calculation wrong?
And I am not bosting my education but you ABSED it - and in mum bai no hard feeling if someone is better than you - you have to upgrade within your limits .I have seen people multiplying inherated money and people making money without education -and taht to in honest way -from scaratch..
Don't get angry please -take a calcy and tell me the flaws - if YOUR assumption of 60% fall what is wrong in my calculation....
Dear Chembur Hunter
There is no engg college from Mumbai Univ amongst top 15 in India, unless you are from IIT Bombay (in which case it is amongst top 3 and does not belong to Mumbai Univ. ).
There is only 1 B-School from Mumbai Univ which is in top 10 and it is SP Jain. So are you from SP Jain?
We are banking on the around 60% of the population of Mumbai that do not own their own homes and who are looking out for their first homes,” said Amit Bhagat, CEO and managing partner ASK Property Investment Advisors.
------------------------
Is that true, 60% of people in Mumbai don't own? Wow. His statement may be biased, but these facts can be checked, anyone?
I would recommend people not to compare Mumbai with USA, there is no real co-relation.
I repeat why is everyone after BB. BB - I am very serious and need your specific advise on buying a property in Chembur or Bandra.I live in Sion which is very crowded and want the calm of a greener but central place. I am single and chose Sion because of that but now the crowd is just to much. Please ANON, RKA etc. - do not respond to my query. I trust BB and BB alone on this blog. His judgment is very good and he also seems to know his propoerty well. BB can you reply ?
This solves another gr8 mystery.
So Bindaas Bhai besides posting as Anons also posts by name Chembur Hunter.
And now He is praising himself by logging in as Ms Risk Taker. What a fool you are BB. Only a dumbass can trust you and only you on this blog.
Anonymous @ 1:51 AM
I m from JBIMS .
I know according to you it may be lousy but it is ok ,myself too not brigt student barely earn to owe couple of flats in Navi Mumbai and enjoy scotch once a week at home:)))))
BTW are you from B school too? Which?
Anyhow reading from all property sites - Chembur prices are steadily increasing!
Anonymous @ 1:51 AM
Chembur hunter here
Whr r u?
I m from JBIMS .
I know according to you it may be lousy but it is ok ,myself too not brigt student barely earn to owe couple of flats in Navi Mumbai and enjoy scotch once a week at home:)))))
BTW are you from B school too? Which?
Anyhow reading from all property sites - Chembur prices are steadily increasing!
1:48 AM
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