This is good article from US. In India's case, I would say how no-planning and lack of infrastructure causes the bubble. Mumbai is prime example where last major infrastructure was built by British (suburban rail), and how last 60 years of mis-management has made it Slumbai. The population density is 30,000+ per sq km, highest in the world.
It's funny when these Builders start comparing home prices in mumbai to that in NYC, Hong Kong, Tokyo and London. The place is shit hole, and quality of life is nothing compared to those cities.
While London remains the world's best commercial city, Asian cities are catching up fast. China alone boasts of three cities -- Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen -- which are among the top financial hubs. Two cities from India -- Mumbai and New Delhi -- also feature in the list.
Shanghai had the largest jump in overall ranking - moving eight places from 32 in 2007 to 24 in 2008. However, Mumbai slipped three notches to 48 from 45. Delhi's rank is 61.
So one has to pay same price to live in Mumbai as NYC? Even though its ranking is 48th in the list!!!
I thought this email doing the rounds might interest some readers. I am not sure if this was discussed here before.
Revelation of Swiss bank accounts
This is so shocking.... If black-money- deposits was an Olympics event..... India would have won a gold medal hands down. The second best Russia has 4 times lesser deposit. U..S. is not even there in the counting in top five!
India has more money in Swiss banks than all the other countries combined!
Recently, due to international pressure, the Swiss government agreed to disclose the names of the account holders only if the respective governments formally asked for it. Indian government is not asking for the details..... . ..any marks for guessing why?
We need to start a movement to pressurize the government to do so! This is perhaps the only way, and a golden opportunity, to expose the high and mighty and weed out corruption!
Please read on.......and forward to all the honest Indians to.....like somebody is forwarding to you.......and build a ground-swell of support for action!
Is India poor, ... who says? Ask the Swiss banks. With personal account deposits in banks of $1,500 billion, in foreign reserve which had been misappropriated, an amount 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt, one needs to rethink if India is a poor country?
DISHONEST INDUSTRIALISTS, scandalous politicians and corrupt IAS, IRS, IPS officers have deposited in foreign banks in their illegal personal accounts a sum of about $1,500 billion, which have been misappropriated by them.
1. This amount is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt. 2. With this amount 45 crore poor people can get Rs 1,000,000 each. This huge amount has been appropriated from the people of India by exploiting and betraying them. Once this huge amount of black money and property comes back to India, the entire foreign debt can be repaid in 24 hours. After paying the entire foreign debt, we will have surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the foreign debt. 3. If this surplus amount is invested in earning interest, the amount of interest will be more than the annual budget of the Central government.. 4. So even if all the taxes are abolished, then also the Central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably.
Some 80,000 people travel to Switzerland every year, of which 25,000 travel very frequently. 'Obviously, these people won't be tourists. They must be travelling there for some other reason,' believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who've been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations went into a tailspin!
Just read the following details and note how these dishonest industrialists, scandalous politicians, corrupt officers, cricketers, film actors, illegal sex trade and protected wildlife operators, to name just a few, sucked this country's wealth and prosperity. This may be the picture of deposits in Swiss banks only. What about other international banks?
Black money in Swiss banks -- Swiss Banking Association report, 2006 details bank deposits in the territory of Switzerland by nationals of following countries:
TOP FIVE 1. INDIA | $1,456 BILLION | 2. RUSSIA | $470 BILLION | 3. U.K. | $390 BILLION | 4. UKRAINE | $100 BILLION | 5. CHINA | $96 BILLION| ( No wonder China beats us Economically - Their Politicians work for their country - our politicians work for themselves)
Now do the maths - India with $1,456 billion or $1.4 trillion, has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined. Public loot since 1947:
Can we bring back our money? It is one of the biggest loots witnessed by mankind -- the loot of the Aam Aadmi (common man) since 1947, by his brethren occupying public office. It has been orchestrated by politicians, bureaucrats and some businessmen.
The list is almost all-encompassing. No wonder, everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear... What is even more depressing in that this ill-gotten wealth of ours has been stashed away abroad into secret bank accounts located in some of the world's best known tax havens? And to that extent the Indian economy has been stripped of its wealth. Ordinary Indians may not be exactly aware of how such secret accounts operate and what are the rules and regulations that go on to govern such tax havens.
However, one may well be aware of 'Swiss bank accounts,' the shorthand for murky dealings, secrecy and of course pilferage from developing countries into rich developed ones.
In fact, some finance experts and economists believe tax havens to be a conspiracy of the western world against the poor countries. By allowing the proliferation of tax havens in the twentieth century, the western world explicitly encourages the movement of scarce capital from the developing countries to the rich. In March 2005, the Tax Justice Network (TJN) published a research finding demonstrating that $11.5 trillion of personal wealth was held offshore by rich individuals across the globe.
The findings estimated that a large proportion of this wealth was managed from some 70 tax havens. Further, augmenting these studies of TJN, Raymond Baker -- in his widely celebrated book titled 'Capitalism' s Achilles Heel'.
Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free Market System' -- estimates that at least $5 trillion have been shifted out of poorer countries to the West since the mid-1970.
It is further estimated by experts that one per cent of the world's population holds more than 57 per cent of total global wealth, routing it invariably through these tax havens. How much of this is from India is anybody's guess.
What is to be noted here is that most of the wealth of Indians parked in these tax havens is illegitimate money acquired through corrupt means. Naturally, the secrecy associated with the bank accounts in such places is central to the issue, not their low tax rates as the term 'tax havens' suggests. Remember Bofors and how India could not trace the ultimate beneficiary of those transactions because of the secrecy associated with these bank accounts?
Maybe India should do the same as US, get Swiss banks to reveal the names of the thieves and unmask them in from front of India's Income Tax dept. and public.
India copies from US only things that they think fit them, not the good ones like pressuring Swiss banks to give out the names and balances.
You did not read the entire piece did you? Venky Iyer is saying the Swiss govt. is ready to share details...all the Indian Govt. needs to do is ask!!
Which the Indian Govt. is refusing to do.
On another note, just watching these snakes on the video makes one feel that these jokers and people who believe their crap deserve whats going to come..These builders are experts at lying playing con games and cheating. The keystone guy says people are making more money and therefore demanding more amenities....these assholes made a decision to make so called "luxury apartments." Whose cost of construction if you amortise across the 600 apartments in a typical tower and buy in bulk is nothing...they are just coming up with excuses to blow up the prices. Land costs are very high??!! so the govt. needs to provide more land, more infrastructure, more bailouts and more stimulus..If this is true, why do these basturds do business? what is the value they are adding?
I agree with Shailesh, Mumbai is a shithole which has actually gone down the drain after 1947 and all the lakhs of crores in Municipal and Public Works Department budgets have been systematically siphoned...now if the aam aadmi has any savings left despite all the crap he has to bear and pollution he has to breathe, work for 16 hours ...whatever savings he has is being systematically sucked by these parasites alongwith govt.
Democracy and governance has truly sucked the blood of the working Indian Middle class.
Some sort of revolution is required and will happen....
No revolution will happen in the land of thieves. The country is run and inhabited by morons. The prices will go down by 60% and then people will again forget after 4-5 years and the same BS all over again. Rich will get richer and poor poorer.
Mumbai Suburban railway is on brink of explosion. In 1990 -1993 one had at least place to stand traveling from South Mumbai Up north/east.
Now try getting place on Dombivli fast or Borivli/Nala sopara Fast local (if you board in between). If you get a seat in IInd class take a picture where you boarded and where you got seat, I will reward you with MP3 player ...
The uncultured crowd has ruined Mumbai's reputation. No wonder MNS SS are protesting influx from UP Bihar Bangladesh. These migrants have no education and dont pay for tickets, use the rail track as open toilet and sleep on footpaths. How can Manmohan Singh claim Mumabi is like Singapore?
Mumbai needs to have Fast Urban Transit Faster and more room (double decked) locals, connecting buses, free shuttles for residents to local mass transit, easy access to stations, line system and entry system in suburban stations, etc, etc. The only way to tackle the UP - Bihar problem is not by stopping them but by enforcing strict rules.
Dedicated Zoning for commerce/industry and high speed transit to these locations. Haphazard placed industry, commercial complexes, illegal slums, disastrous health conditions, will never see Mumbai rise.
My father was posted in Mumbai for 3 years in 90's and he preferred to do commute everyday to mumbai on Deccan Queen Train from Pune instead of staying in the hell hole. People who are proud of Mumbai have seen its better past upto 1995. Ever since Narasimha Rao and MMS opened up economy, they never anticipated urban poverty and skewed demography. If Mumbai has to make itself stand out, there should be some serious steps.
If Cong NCP wins this election get ready for 5 more years of no-development. Think and vote please.
No one has asked about price reduction. One can make arguments in either way & prove anything. Yes, when people become learned it becomes very easy to fool them. Because they always start applying what is written in book instead of own thinking. And today’s media make it very easy to deceive the learned people.
Anyway, India is going to resolve this problem on its own. India already has 30% naxalites. In the past, our ancestors divided the society based on castes & we have seen the effect of reservation policies. One can debate anything about it but the change is irreversible.
Today we have bowed the seeds of social disparity, which will become the next partitioning/dividing theme of the country. There are already good amount(30%) of naxalites. In the remote part of the country they are operating as naxalites & in metro they are operating as Gangsters. Now the growing disparity in society is forcing people to join the new community with a rapid pace.
Media is sold and fucked up. Indians should think about India and not carried away by greed. But capitalism would take its cycle and by the time Indians realise, it may be too late.
Good video Shailesh. Everyone knows that Mumbai is out of reach of every mumbaikar save 0.1% of the population. 99.9% people cannot afford to purchase a home in the hell hole. I have repeatedly said that whoever can move, should move to Pune, Banglore, chennai, hyderabad where prices are affordable and jobs available. Before 2000, the biggest cities for job growth were Mumbai and Delhi. Now cities of the south have caught up. Even if each of these places had the same crappy quality of life as Mumbai, atleast you could live that life in an affordable home.
You are seeing shit everywhere because you are in deep shit. Dont worry sometime in future you will be able to buy, till then pay rent and be happy.I really find your post very hilarious because every second person who writes in favour of property you see me in him. HA HA HA :-) :-)
Hey I am seeing old post of Vulture floating around. I had told Vulture in beginning this year that you will stop posting from June onwards and even this predicition of mine has come true. I am just loving it.
I am just loving the frustration of Mr. Chawl Kumar.
Property prices will only rise till it reaches 25 times your annual salary for 1BHK in Chembur. I am talking about middle level executive in an non IT firm.
Guys keep dreaming but the prices will only move up and most of the guys who are defying this especially types of Chawl Kumar will only buy in peak from people like us.
Property prices across the country are 10-25% lower than their peak in early 2008. Bank rates are about 4 percentage points lower. Still, the vast majority of the exploding middle class, which aspires to own a home, is not taking the plunge. Homes are still not affordable. Those described as 'affordable homes' are hardly homes.
"The rates may have come down, but even today, the prices quoted by sellers are too high," said Shravan Desai, an employee at an MNC in Mumbai. "The developers have reduced the price, but have started charging more for the parking space, which one has to compulsorily buy and that too pay black money for that," fumes Mr Desai, who has been hunting for a home for the past two years.
Many builders who might have collapsed last year but for the Reserve Bank of India's intervention, are raising prices on the back of the feel-good factor following the record rally in stocks, waning fear of job losses and the return of bonuses, though isolated.
DLF, the country's largest builder, has raised the price at its Capital Greens project by 25% to Rs 5,677 per sq ft. In Madhapur, Hyderabad, a 2,000 sq ft flat, which cost Rs 30 lakh in 2008, has doubled to Rs 60 lakh. A not-so-comforting rise for millions of aspirants.
"Properties and loans are still expensive for us," says Mrinalini, an employee at a technology company in the Capital.
Some builders also think that price hikes could destroy demand. "It is not very wise to increase prices drastically now," said Niranjan Hiranandani, managing director, Hiranandani Group, recently. "The market has just recovered and the buyers are returning."
For all the hype about the revival of the real estate market, the government's treasury is giving a different picture.
For instance, in North Chennai, between January and August, property registrations dropped to 19,834 from 39,331, compared to the same period last year, and so is the case with many regions.
"We have delayed our purchase in anticipation of a further fall in prices," said GV Rao, an ex-employee of Andhra Bank, in Hyderabad.
The lack of trust on the builders' ability to deliver homes on time and the fear that low interest rates could be a trap are keeping many buyers away.
Thousands of aspirants remain trapped with money sunk, as developers could not complete projects on time and in some cases where construction has been suspended, buyers do not know whether they would ever get their dream homes, or whether it will remain a dream.
"I couldn't sleep for days," says Dinesh Verma, a Delhi-based chartered accountant who booked a Rs 50-lakh house at DLF's New Town Heights project in Gurgaon. "After having taken 42% of the payment, DLF came back to tell us that it didn't have necessary licences to start construction." DLF assured Mr Verma and a thousand others that they would get their money back without interest within six months. Mr Verma is yet to receive his money.
DLF is not alone. Hundreds of builders across the country overstretched themselves by buying up property hoping to sell all.
The past few months have seen many companies such as Unitech, the second-largest builder of homes, and HDIL raising hundreds of crores to repay debt and resume construction.
That has given hope to prospective buyers that property prices will resume their rally, as billions of dollars of government-sponsored incentives to boost demand seem to be having effect.
"The stock market is doing good, and we have spared money to invest, and in Mumbai, real estate is a very safe bet. I would rather invest in real estate here than invest in gold or play bigger bets in the capital market," said Ramniklal Jain.
I have no problems you calling me chawl kumar, sulabh or what have you...primarily because you have accepted yourself as Sundaas Bhai :))
Also, you admitted that there will be a peak and in the other post you also admitted that prices might fall in the future. So you do have instances of sanity where you know that RE prices will not keep going up forever and one day we will get our prices.
As far as being in shit is concerned, I can see that you have problems comprehending english too..I am based out of US, where even a chawl is better than luxury apartments in Mumbai. Also, my entire earlier post was about the governance and corruption eating away India/Mumbai..which you can differ on only if you work with the BMC or PWD. Seeing your posts and your low IQ this is a distinct possibility.
Actually if property prices balloon, I am very happy. You see people like me wait till we get the right price. So balloon's mean bursting is close at hand and which means I get true value..
Difficult things to explain to you, because I am starting to realize that like your name your brain consists of crap too... So laugh away, we will laugh last and loudest...
Not surprising then, analysts are signalling caution. At a panel discussion on real estate organised by DNA recently, Balaji Rao, managing director of Starwood Capital Venture, said that the rebound in the property market had been driven to a large extent by the various fiscal stimuli and monetary easing measures undertaken by the government.
``But I feel this could be just a dead cat bounce. If the markets do not catch traction, then the possibility of a double dip is real. To effect such a takeoff, it is critical that the developers hold prices and keep pushing volumes,'' said Rao.
Whoa Whoa - Please dont get personal. No one is making money here. People are thinking all builders are bad. You should realize that building a home is not that easy. Builders take huge risks in investing and i honestly dont think their margins are 400-600%. The relative margins may not even be a 10th of that. Every month a house is unsold and unoccupied, builders lose millions of Rupees in interest to the same banks we buyers dont want to pay interest.
I agree that there is a mafia-politician-builder-Realtor nexus, but many genuine honest builders exist - but breaking nexus that is not in our hands. Isnt it you/us guys who voted the UPA back in Center. I am sure, a non Congress govt would have helped in reducing prices.
AFAIK Navi Mumbai rates are becoming reasonable - if you see the Navi Mumbai Suburban rail network plan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mumbai_suburban_rail_map.svg) and soon to come International Airport, there is no reason to prefer Mumbai. You can just work of NM, NM has very good schools-colleges (almost as good as or even better than Pune), good Malls, good life in terms of crowd, good roads. If Husband wife both work, I suggest you should buy one house via your wife's funds in Navi Mumbai. that ways you have a nice backup...
I know many who work in Mumbai, own home in Navi Mumbai and rent/lease a house in proper Mumbai. To Be honest one should also reassess the value of buying in Mumbai/Slumbai.
If Husband wife both work, I suggest you should buy one house via your wife's funds in Navi Mumbai. that ways you have a nice backup...
what a moronic idea? so you (builders) are keeping any eye on spouse's income... also you ( builders) are in touch with the HR departments of the companies to glean the information about future salary hikes. These are FUNDAMENTALS to justify the irrational hike in property prices… Shame on you..!
We are not going to spend a single paisa to buy these homes.
If i use my fathers principle you cannot leverage and save money and pay for things you need to buy...
If i need to buy a house 25 times annual salary -
I can save 25 % of my salary.. if i invest it wisely its possible that in 50 years i can get the money to buy this house... i will be 70 + !! Why should i stay in Chembur...
@ Anonymous at 10.21 Am Pacific Time. I am not builder.
I am not targeting people who are fence sitters. There is no lack of genuine buyers. For 6000 flats on MHADA in Versova, Ghatkopar Bypass and one more location there were 2.5 lakh applications. The lottery was held invalid due to apparently fraudulent software.
What is the use of buying 2bhk apartment in Mumbai suburb for 60 lakh when you can get 2 houses in Navi Mumbai for same price. Whats so great about staying in Mumbai v/s Navi Mumbai unless your job is only possible to be done in Mumbai.
Wake up! Hyderabad, bangalore, Pune, NM, Nagpur, Jaipur, all are having nice deals now. I am getting a deal for Rs 2650 sq feet in West Pune where rate was not less than 3500-3700 in 2008 start and was 2300-2400 in 2005. I can bet my savings on the fact that prices wont go below early 2005 levels.
However I am also staunch that rates wont go up either. At least for 2-3 years. IT/BPO and to some extent gems/Jewellery and Automobile engineering exports have been driving the real Indian Urban Market. As long as these industries suffer there wont be any boom. So My take is that unless any thing catastrophic happens (like war/ massive earthquake) Real Estate rates wont collapse. Instead opportunistic buyers will make decent deals and get good price with builders.
I am still just 25 years old so even if I suffer a loss, my whole life is not going to be ruined.
My another big concern is that Govt Employees who have fat salaries thanks to 6th pay commission - along with bribe black money will hoard houses as soon as rates correct.
Update on Govt salaries - class 1 officer Senior - 10 lakh per annum class 1 officer junior - 8 lakh per annum class 2 officer senior - 6 lakh per annum class 2 jr class 3 sr - 4-5 lakh per annum.
If you dont buy, these people will jump in. Think about it ...
Politicians dont allow honest RE business to exist - they do not want it. They are happy with their fantastic nexus of 60 years - it has stood the test of time!
In Pune I personally know 2-3 builders. They themselves admit that politicians mafia etc have left no other option.
Ex Paranjpe Schemes, DS Kulkarni, Goel Ganga Group, Kumar, Gera, Konark, Gulmohar, etc etc - theses guys are not gentlemen but they have at times delivered good housing schemes. in Pune these builders have their reputation and have maintained it. Similarly every city locally has its long time reputed builders.
The new IPO boosted players are the ones which are unscrupulous - Ex DLF, Omaxe, Sobha, Unitech, sahara et al. I have no clue about their dealings
If you are so skeptical, you should buy land and build your own house. In places where that is not possible, its never going to be in future. Check out Insignia pune and aarohi pune are group housing schemes where individuals group together and buy land and construct their own complex.
Among the hottest of the Indian property stocks is Unitech Ltd., a company based in Gurgaon outside India's capital. Unitech says it buys land through hundreds of subsidiaries, counts revenue from projects before they are fully built and books interest on loans from undeveloped land acquisitions as capital instead of operating expenses, practices prohibited by international financial-reporting standards that U.S. and European companies are required to follow.
Sanjay Chandra, Unitech's managing director and son of its founder, says these practices are acceptable in India, where there are no accounting guidelines for the real-estate industry. "What we're doing is perfectly legal," he says.
Some analysts contend that their lax accounting practices, opaque financial statements and complex off-balance-sheet transactions hide key facts from investors and inflate the companies' stated performance.
Chandra says Unitech needs its 380 subsidiaries in order to navigate local government restrictions on the amount of agricultural land a company can purchase, typically small plots of 10 to 20 acres. He also says Unitech limits disclosure on land deals for competitive reasons.
Even these guys who raise money thru IPO, can not really buy land using white money. They have to use these subsidiaries to make purchases and grease the wheel to say. The lack of accounting standards are not unusual in India, or most like they are bent in weird ways.
Shriniwas - I only believe in buying ready home, even if it means paying little more. Peace of mind is worth it.
Government employees with the salaries quoted by you, will think thousand times before purchasing any overvalued asset because for them the salary is not an EASY MONEY. I firmly believe that they perform the thorough due diligence before risking the life savings .
It is only the speculators with the easy/cheap money who can play this game and currently they are playing.
The suggestion that " if the spouse is working then use that money (salary) towards paying the EMIs" is specious, stupid and stinks of Moral Hazard. Please use that money for other better things and not to pay the rewards for the bets taken by bankers and builders. If you think that your spouse is entitled to the slavery of the banks and builders then it is your individual choice.
Genuine home buyers please don’t fall prey to the false propaganda of " Prices are going to move up". This is just a plain nonsense. The recent uptick in the real estate market is due to Buy-Sell game among the brokers, builders, bank managers and the suckers.
Had the Reserve Bank of India not allowed the banks and housing finance companies to change the rules (rollover of debt) regarding classifying the due residential and commercial mortgage loans as Non Performing Assets (NPAs) and cook the books, the real estate would have crashed by this time.
By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer On 4:48 pm EDT, Wednesday October 7, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. consumers reduced their borrowing for the seventh straight month in August, as households worked to pay off debt and banks reduced credit card limits.
Americans are saving more and borrowing less as widespread job losses, stagnant wages and dwindling home values have spurred a move to greater frugality. While that's a positive trend in the long run, economists say, it can weaken the fledgling recovery as consumer spending powers about 70 percent of the economy.
"Consumers are clearly becoming much more conservative about their spending habits (and) paying down debts," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities. "This is likely to continue."
The declines reflect both a drop in demand for credit by consumers, as well as tighter standards among banks and other lenders.
I am also looking for a apartment in Pune-West(Baner, Pashan, Wakad, Pimpale Saudagar etc.). If you can share some info about the projects & rate will be really appreciated, Thanks.
I think south mumbai and most burbs are priced for perfection. There is not much room on the upside, simply because it would be cheaper to buy a place in NY than Mumbai. The incomes or wealth (black or white) do not justify any significant increase. Will the prices go down, maybe, maybe not.
The big variable is high inflation, thay will destroy all savings. NRI
@Anonymous 4.43 pm PDT, Baner Hills-Balewadi area has lot of good options - rates from 2700-3100 negotiate hard - Prakriti, Aditya Comfort Zone, Gera, Pride purple etc etc have good projects - Please see Ravi Karandeekars blog - he has good list. Baner-Pashan-SusRd-aundh is about 4000-4200 Rs psft. Wakad and Pimple Saudagar-Nilakh-Rahatni is 2300-2500 - All are close to Software park and university circle. Warje, bavdhan, sinhagad road are ranging from 2200-3200. I am not interested in East/south pune.
@Anonymous 2.16 pacific time
Government employees dont have problem of job security. They are hooked for life. If prices fall from 3200 to say 1800, Govt employees will lap up all houses before you get a chance. So dont have ostrich mentality
----------------------- Government cant let down the construction industry. Every housing project of about 1000 flats employs at least 1000 people directly and about same number indirectly. If the RE falls, then these people will lose jobs.
I have seen how the RE crash in US stopped construction projects all together especially in Greater Phoenix area, Inland Empire (San Bernardino-Ontario-East LA), SF Bay area and Detroit. If a huge crash happened in India, lakhs of construction workers will be rendered jobless.
Agreed that greedy builders have propped up prices - but the real question is how much is the baseline price? What is the real demand supply determined price of housing. So should prices fall 10-20%, 30-40% from current, or stay stagnant for say another year. I think this question is more important! Blindly believing 70% fall is foolish .
Anon above: If the prices can go up 400%, why 70% drop from the peak value is not possible.
Just because all world banks are fueling their economies by stimulus and low interest rates. This whold ehting will come like a pack of cards. Just a mtter of time. SOmetimes I feel it will over correct and prices may fall below 1990 values of RE all over the world. Major bumps are ahead. DOn't be too optimistic. Easy come, easy go.
Agree..buyers can certainly give at least a thought of grouping together and doing something for themselves instead of giving everything to builders and letting them take advantages on their will. Our earlier generations were far better than us in some sense I guess. They used to save first, form group or join with like minded people through networking and then consider the options keeping their interests and budgets in mind. Once such similar initiative I came across started recently in Pune. You can find more info on blog - Housing Self Help Group in Pune
I have no problems you calling me chawl kumar, sulabh or what have you...primarily because you have accepted yourself as Sundaas Bhai :))
You don’t have to tell this because we all know that people who call others name have no problem being called names. I am sure your parents and teachers may have told you this :-)
Mr.Chawl Kumar/Sulab said..
Also, you admitted that there will be a peak and in the other post you also admitted that prices might fall in the future. So you do have instances of sanity where you know that RE prices will not keep going up forever and one day we will get our prices.
Dear Sulab,
I am not adamant like you guys. Some time back when Mr. Pradeep Shah Founder of CRISIL mentioned that Indian RE has an exposure of 30k crores, i also thought that RE is bound to fall and the same reflected in my earlier post. Later things changed with various countries started announcing stimulus package including India. I remember Sameer Arora mentioning on CNBC he did a deal One Billion US$ deal in twenty minutes for DLF.
Now with this kind of liquidity, Congress in centre and obviously with demand in place what do you expect me to say?
If you could remember I said minimum 50% increase for Mumbai in two years and requested buyers to buy before the rains end. I personally did not think that the price will increase by 25% in just three months. Now i feel minimum 80% increase in two years from pre-election price. Let us wait and watch Mr. Sulab!!!
Mr. Chawl Kumar/Sulab said..
As far as being in shit is concerned, I can see that you have problems comprehending english too..I am based out of US, where even a chawl is better than luxury apartments in Mumbai. Also, my entire earlier post was about the governance and corruption eating away India/Mumbai..which you can differ on only if you work with the BMC or PWD. Seeing your posts and your low IQ this is a distinct possibility.
Mr. Sulab,
Thanks for the above comment let the readers decide whether it is worth reading your comments or mine!!
Mr. Chawls Kumar/Sulab said...
Actually if property prices balloon, I am very happy. You see people like me wait till we get the right price. So balloon's mean bursting is close at hand and which means I get true value..
Difficult things to explain to you, because I am starting to realize that like your name your brain consists of crap too... So laugh away, we will laugh last and loudest...
Sulab,
We really don’t know how much Rupee will lose its value, how commodity prices will move and host of other factor will decide when there will be crash and how much it will be. Guys like you have been talking about crash for last three years!!
Relax Sulab and learn to accept things in the right spirit, in life we all go wrong but sometimes what is wrong today will seem right at a later date.
Whether property prices fall or not but you all are making good money from Ad Clicks on this blog.
Bindaas Bhai is nothing but one of the promoters of this blog to drive more traffic in this blog. Having an anti on the forum drives more traffic.
You guys keep arguing on this blog and keep their cash registers ringiing. -----------------------------------
What is wrong in Vik making money, he has worked hard to build this blog since 2005. Guys like you can never see others making money. Pls. learn to be happy when others make money.
Swami said... Property price 25 times annual salary!!
I believe i can educate the other bloggers
Price = 25 *12 = 300 months
Interest at 12.75 % = 38.25 months salary per annum 3.1875 months salary per month
Interest at 7.0 % = 21 months salary per annum 1.75 months salary per month
Interest at 5.0 % (US Rate) = 15 months salary per annum 1.25 months salary per month
to pay just the interest you need to increase your salary from 1.25 times to 3.1875 times!!
Utter non sense... Whats there in that place... I have been to Chembur and brother stayed in a rented house... the rent was 7K...
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Good one, but sentiments will always overide fundamentals. Kindly ask your brother what was the price for 1BHK in chembur(diamond garden) in 1994/95. In case he has forgotten, it was 35 lakhs for One BHK, now let the forum know the average salary during those days.
96 we saw a crash and the price fell to 16 Lakhs in just one year.
Excellent analysis by Ajit Dayal of equity master. This article deserves a front page entry. http://www.equitymaster.com/ht/detail.asp?date=10/8/2009&story=2
@Anonymous 5:22 AM Thank you for the post. I have repeatedly mentioned in this forum that the Bankers are the main villain and dacoits of this drama.
Suggestion Walk up to your neighbourhood bank branch manager and ask him, "How much of my bank deposit in your bank is going to fund real estate developers who then keep prices so high that I cannot afford to buy real estate?" as suggested by Ajit Dayal may not work because the bankers are hard skin animals and they will not act in the best interest of aam aadmi.
Instead of this we can invest money in other assets e.g Gold and more effective way is not to buy any financial product i.e. Housing Loans, Insurance etc from these crooks.
I am reposting my previous comments : 06Sept2009
We are missing the main Villain of this story of Real Estate Bubbles. The petty criminals i.e. brokers are becoming the target of angers. Yes they should be punished for their immoral behavior and what about the big guerilla sitting in the room is going unnoticed. It is nothing but the lenders i.e. Banks. Had the banks not rolled over the debts, all these criminals would have been trashed under the debris of real estate crash.
The banks very well know that there is a special class of slaves... yeh you guessed correctly .. Middle Class or so called Upper Middle class. This class will work throughout their lives working hard to pay the EMIs and making sure that the Banks Managers and Builders nexus thrives forever.
Please check the following link to know how the Reserve Bank of India and several national banks helped bailing out these crooks. But one thing is sure that this ponzi scheme is on the last leg since the new entrants e.g. IT Techies ( hard hit due to recession and lay-offs) have disappeared. In few cases the passed outs of 2007 batch have been asked to join the BPO unit for the consolidated salary of Rs 5000
Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL), a Mumbai-based property developer, has rolled over Rs 2,500 crore debt it has taken from commercial banks for the next 15-18 months, a top company official has said. The company has rolled over the debt taken from public sector banks such as Bank of India, Union Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Uco Bank, among others. The restructured debt was due in the next couple of months.
~ Almost all real estate developers have used the recent lifeline allowed by the Reserve Bank of India to restructure their loans as they are hit by slowing home sales and mounting debt.
~ DLF, the country’s largest realty company, refinanced about Rs 2,000 crore loan at a 12-13 per cent interest rate out of the Rs 4,300 crore it needed to repay by June this year.
~ Unitech , has restructured Rs 1,000 crore of debt with public sector banks and rolled over Rs 500 crore it has borrowed from mutual funds for three months.
~ Developers such as Omaxe, Puravankara and Sobha Developers are in talks with banks and financial institutions to restructure their loans. But analysts say restructuring will only solve short-term worries of realtors. “Realty companies are either rolling over their loans or refinancing to pay their existing loans, which is increasing their debt levels. Today, their debt levels are the same as in March 2008,” said an analyst with rating firm who did not wish to be quoted.
What should you keep in mind while buying a house? How can one get the best bargain?
In an hour-long chat on Thursday, Santosh Naik, managing director and chief executive of Disha Direct Marketing Services Pvt Ltd, answered many such queries. Here is the transcript:
Please stop hurling personal abuses. I guess the urge to yell makes you guys think that typing replies on an online forum is equivalent to shouting in a real world debate fight. People who are holding on for rates to collapse, you are playing a gamble - The rates may or may not come down - but I will still suggest rates will stay stagnant but inflation wont.
@People buying for Investment - please consider tier 2 cities
@People buying to stay && not in Mumbai - these next 5 months will be golden period for negotiation especially for near complete projects. From next year the rates wont collapse but wont raise either. Builders will take their sweet time to build new projects. It would be advisable then to now book something that can be delivered next year than wait for next year for a plan on paper.
#Broker Nexus - Everyone on the planet wants to make profit and make a living. some poeple see EMI as slavery - others see monthly rent as slavery, others see staying with parents being a burden on them as slavery. Its your call.
@Bhai - how are Thane, Navi Mumbai, North Borivali, Thane rates compared to 2005-06?
With Banks Slow to Take Losses, Fears of a Residential-Bust Repeat; 'More Pain Likely Lies Ahead'
BY LINGLING WEI AND MAURICE TAMMAN Banks in the U.S. "are slow" to take losses on their commercial real-estate loans being battered by slumping property values and rental payments , according to a Federal Reserve presentation to banking regulators last month.
The remarks suggest that banking regulators are girding for a rerun of the housing-related losses now slamming thousands of banks that failed to set aside enough capital during the boom to cushion themselves when the bubble burst. "Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss -- just as they were in residential," according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall ...
That was a good bit of information though I am in Delhi (ND)not Pune.
Most developers deliver good products. Their dishonesty is in how they buy land and how they allot flats to their crony brokers/small time politicians.
I agree totally with the recent IPO RE gangs. They were the worst in the excess
I might be skeptical, but I might still buy from a builder! I dont want to waste my time and effort in becoming a mason :-) Also, buying land is also not without risks - maybe even more.
@ Shailesh
I know about builders not being able to buy large parcels of land. Their accounting practice details were an eye opener though.
@ Anon 2.16
Every govt employee in Delhi - which is full of them - is busy booking flats, I can vouch for that. And spouse's second income definitely is used for the EMI, its true for almost everyone I know. Most register in the wife's name since stamp duty is less. By the way, a big chunk of money has been released for govt employees this October. Expect good sales for cars (half the crowd) and flat bookings this Diwali.
Cheers, Venkat ND.
PS. BB, keep it down a bit. Your arguments were a lot more persuasive than your random abuse.
The percentage of loans backed by the agency that are delinquent or in foreclosure hit nearly 8% at the end of June. Critics say borrowers don't have enough of a stake in keeping up with payments.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices may still fall more than 10 percent, killing an incipient recovery, as demand from first-time home buyers fades, leading economist Nouriel Roubini said on Thursday.
Roubini, one of the few economists who accurately predicted the magnitude of the financial crisis, said massive losses in commercial real estate loans will add to the problem, forcing banks to raise more capital.
"The stress is moving from residential mortgages that are still in deep trouble, to commercial real estate, where they are just starting to recognize that they're going to have massive, massive losses ," Roubini of RGE Global Monitor told reporters after a presentation for a World Economic Forum report on the global financial system.
One of the main risks next year may be from losses on some $2 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate loans, the economist predicted.
The cheap and easy money has played havoc with the lives of many hard working and honest people around the world. (created a massive Real Estate Bubbles around the world). The current stock market rally in India is a prime example of the abuse of the cheap money.
This insanity will not continue for a long time. The Fed chairman is being questioned for his role.
@Vik..please check whether the following link deserves the place on the front page
First Posted: 10-7-09 04:49 PM | Updated: 10-7-09 06:10 PM
The letter calls out the Fed for its role in the Wall Street bailout.
"Today, big banks are being bailed out and have a substantially lower cost of capital through an implicit government backstop even as Americans themselves are seeing their pay cut," the letter says. "This lower cost of capital -- at government expense -- coupled with increased scarcity of credit is resulting in the banks recapitalizing by charging American consumers higher credit costs, including record overdraft fees and much higher credit card rates."
Anoymous @ 7.09 am Pacific time I have repeatedly mentioned in this forum that the Bankers are the main villain and dacoits of this drama.
Suggestion Walk up to your neighbourhood bank branch manager and ask him, "How much of my bank deposit in your bank is going to fund real estate developers who then keep prices so high that I cannot afford to buy real estate?" as suggested by Ajit Dayal may not work because the bankers are hard skin animals and they will not act in the best interest of aam aadmi. ------------------- ----------------- You need education - Bank deposits DO NOT fund loans. Money is printed as and when loans are taken. It is basic principle of how money works. A bank needs to have some deposits (I think its called CRR) but deposits DO NOT exceed loans - the loans exceed deposits. Banks borrow from Central Banks (on the Repo rate) and Central banks show it on the Country's balance sheet (Goes to our national budget deficit). US national deficit is 1.4 Trillion Dollars, Indias deficit is about 279 b US$ ?? please correct the numbers.
The government prints money as and when needed in return is the promise of the borrower to pay back with interest. This has been going on since World War 2. US is not scared of money stashed in Switzerland because that money is worthless unless its converted to Gold/precious metals. its just a piece of paper.
I am just glad that you and everyone in this forum know exactly who I mean when I say Sundaas..Its also very clear to me that this term and all my comments have made you extremely agitated. Suddenly Vashi House Hunter has disappeared and you sound very scared..
Also Sundaaas,
You have been pretty adamant in the past. Shit bhai here has been saying that housing prices never fall..Suddenly he got so mad at me that he said he will sell me houses at the peak before the fall. Which means, Crap bhai is here to pump the market and sell to innocent victims houses at the peak..No wonder his comments stink of his shitty brain and character..
BTW SUndaas,
You have never said that Indian RE is going to fall...So RE still has massive debt exposure, now beyond 30K crore and with excess money printing leading to inflation these RE jokers will be faced with massive debt. Raising money might be easy, but the money has to be paid..and as RBI has been saying recently, Interest Rates have to climb up...much higher up to prevent hyperinflation. This will happen across the globe..so these jokers who are leveraged to the hilt will realize sooner or later that short term pain relief means long term terminal pain..You morons are just the kind of shitty characters who will be flushed due to all this liquidity :))
80% increase? Let's see!! I have still to see 50% increase which you were talking about in 3 months...for which if prices in your favorite chembure were 10K they should have become 15K..
Also Smelly Sundaas,
You are the one who praises your smelliness by writing posts under different pseudonyms...So even if you tell me that there are 5 people praising you at this blog then I know that you have posted congratulatory notes to yourself under 5 different names..
Also Retchy Sundaas,
Rupee will lose its value??!! Why??!! Are you telling me that your shitty talents now extends to macroeconomics??!! I have been seeing your poorly constructed syllogisms for months now. Like you said sometime or the other crash will occur..people like you who said don't time, are now saying that you will sell to me at the peak..
So, you also agree that a crash will occur, we do not know when(so what is surprising about that, no one know when exactly a crash will occur..).
Finally, my guttery Sundaas,
I am glad that in your anger or frustration at my comments you have finally started admitting that a Crash is going to happen sometime in the future...the more Builders borrow and raise prices the harder they are going to fall.
Sundaas..I would also urge to relax and stay in your gutter or potty...why pump and spoil other people's lives?
Also, flowy Sundaas,
Vik can defend himself..he does not need your endorsement does he?
One last thing cheesy Sundaas:
This comment of yours was too funny - "Good one, but sentiments will always overide fundamentals."
Having said that Sundaas bhai, your Sundaas brain spouted the 5 second contradiction - 1> Kindly ask your brother what was the price for 1BHK in chembur(diamond garden) in 1994/95. In case he has forgotten, it was 35 lakhs 2> 96 we saw a crash and the price fell to 16 Lakhs in just one year.
In those statements, I thought the lesson to be learnt was that fundamentals always overrides Sentiments!! But your Sundaas brain managed to learn the opposite lesson :))
You are hilarious Sundaas...if prices went up for one year but then crashed and remaind stagnant (like you shitty brain) for a long time it just illustrates that fundamentals triumphed over sentiment moron...But then flowy Sundaas Brains will have difficult grasping this concept or what kind of contradictions they are making...
Sulab is also for urinating, why dont you say something on that :-).
Cheers!! you are one imaginative guy. BTW what is sulabs turnover and what position you work as. I guess you will be sitting to collect coins :-) HA HA HA.
Sorry but at times i also loose my cool. People are frustrated for not buying a house and they try to remove the same on me, little knowing that this wont help.
Srinivas,
Thane and New Bomaby has seen maximum drop, this market will take some time to pick up,(excess supply).It is worth buying purely for self use.
Preeti,
In another 3 qtrs Chembur Diamond garden will touch 15k. It is very difficult to predict a crash but as i said the moment it reaches 25 years income (middle level non IT exec) to buy one BHK it is time to exit.
You need education - Bank deposits DO NOT fund loans. Money is printed as and when loans are taken.
You moron dont explain your point with the details of "Fractional-reserve banking" . They are not relevant.
Please remember it is the cheap money which has fuelled these all sorts of asset bubbles. It is very necessary to keep restrain ( ankush ) on how these depository institutions deploy our money.
I did not say anything wrong, the real fact is that banks have to lend to make profits. So the lending policy has appropriately changed over years. Fractional reserve may not have initially apply to Indian banks, but most Indian are heading that way. Banks are hardly lending more than 70% of the house price which makes them safe if asset prices fall by 30%.
The real question is that how many Banks have miscalculated the valuations and have lent to the unscrupulous builders.
In fact I wholly agree that the easy money is indeed causing asset bubbles.
And please don't yell out names like a coward without exposing your own identity. This is not a slugfest blog.
So the lending policy has appropriately changed over years. ..The real question is that how many Banks have miscalculated the valuations ,
The bank policies have changed to suit their own interest. Take example of the HDFC bank. The chairman of the HDFC group has been telling from the roof top since 2005 that this is a massive real estate bubble. He expressed the same on "Walk the Talk" show with Shekhar Gupta. Inspite of this the group is doling out massive loans to real estate builders and feasting on the hard earned money of gullible home buyers. This is keeping real estate prices artificially at higher levels.
You are the most dangerous one who is yelling with the entire nonsense dribble like "if you have the money then buy the properties, if your spouse is working then use the money to pay for EMI, real estate prices would go down only 10 - 20 %". Please dont nudge the people to burn their money when you very well know that this bubble has been propped up by the government and Reserve bank of India.
@ Jayant, I am not influencing anyone not do I say that todays rates are justified.
I waited for 3 long years and finally bought a house for my parents in Pune just this month. Many of my friends also have bought in the present 4-5 months. In Pune at least I remember rates dilly-dallying near late 2004 - 2005 rates now. (Ex Wakad - 2300 in late 2004 now its 2350 and in Baner from 2006 its been 2600-2800 till date). For people working in IT/ working abroad, buying a 25-30 lakh house is not a big issue.
For many of them this can prove to be a good investment to buy IFF they have disposable income and are not paying EMI. In India its not safe to invest in any high risk investment either.
For example My uncle bought SBI Mutual funds from 2002-2006 but there has been hardly any significant return from it despite the stocks moving up and then crashing.
I admit that some areas in Pune itself have insane/absurd prices (Example - Kothrud has 5000 rs per sq foot where it has nothing different from the areas mentioned earlier).
I am still skeptical as to how much RE will fall from the present levels in areas where it has "fairly" corrected.
It is an open question. I am open for debate. I have nothing to lose as I am only going to buy a house in United States.
65 comments:
Part 2 of the RE Video
This is good article from US. In India's case, I would say how no-planning and lack of infrastructure causes the bubble. Mumbai is prime example where last major infrastructure was built by British (suburban rail), and how last 60 years of mis-management has made it Slumbai. The population density is 30,000+ per sq km, highest in the world.
How Urban Planners Caused the Housing Bubble
It's funny when these Builders start comparing home prices in mumbai to that in NYC, Hong Kong, Tokyo and London. The place is shit hole, and quality of life is nothing compared to those cities.
The world's best financial cities
While London remains the world's best commercial city, Asian cities are catching up fast. China alone boasts of three cities -- Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen -- which are among the top financial hubs. Two cities from India -- Mumbai and New Delhi -- also feature in the list.
Shanghai had the largest jump in overall ranking - moving eight places from 32 in 2007 to 24 in 2008. However, Mumbai slipped three notches to 48 from 45. Delhi's rank is 61.
So one has to pay same price to live in Mumbai as NYC? Even though its ranking is 48th in the list!!!
I thought this email doing the rounds might interest some readers. I am not sure if this was discussed here before.
Revelation of Swiss bank accounts
This is so shocking.... If black-money- deposits was an Olympics event..... India would have won a gold medal hands down. The second best Russia has 4 times lesser deposit. U..S. is not even there in the counting in top five!
India has more money in Swiss banks than all the other countries combined!
Recently, due to international pressure, the Swiss government agreed to disclose the names of the account holders only if the respective governments formally asked for it. Indian government is not asking for the details..... . ..any marks for guessing why?
We need to start a movement to pressurize the government to do so! This is perhaps the only way, and a golden opportunity, to expose the high and mighty and weed out corruption!
Please read on.......and forward to all the honest Indians to.....like somebody is forwarding to you.......and build a ground-swell of support for action!
Is India poor, ... who says? Ask the Swiss banks. With personal account deposits in banks of $1,500 billion, in foreign reserve which had been misappropriated, an amount 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt, one needs to rethink if India is a poor country?
DISHONEST INDUSTRIALISTS, scandalous politicians and corrupt IAS, IRS, IPS officers have deposited in foreign banks in their illegal personal accounts a sum of about $1,500 billion, which have been misappropriated by them.
1. This amount is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt.
2. With this amount 45 crore poor people can get Rs 1,000,000 each. This huge amount has been appropriated from the people of India by exploiting and betraying them. Once this huge amount of black money and property comes back to India, the entire foreign debt can be repaid in 24 hours. After paying the entire foreign debt, we will have surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the foreign debt.
3. If this surplus amount is invested in earning interest, the amount of interest will be more than the annual budget of the Central government..
4. So even if all the taxes are abolished, then also the Central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably.
Cont'd
Some 80,000 people travel to Switzerland every year, of which 25,000 travel very frequently. 'Obviously, these people won't be tourists. They must be travelling there for some other reason,' believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who've been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations went into a tailspin!
Just read the following details and note how these dishonest industrialists, scandalous politicians, corrupt officers, cricketers, film actors, illegal sex trade and protected wildlife operators, to name just a few, sucked this country's wealth and prosperity. This may be the picture of deposits in Swiss banks only. What about other international banks?
Black money in Swiss banks -- Swiss Banking Association report, 2006 details bank deposits in the territory of Switzerland by nationals of following countries:
TOP FIVE
1. INDIA | $1,456 BILLION |
2. RUSSIA | $470 BILLION |
3. U.K. | $390 BILLION |
4. UKRAINE | $100 BILLION |
5. CHINA | $96 BILLION| ( No wonder China beats us Economically - Their Politicians work for their country - our politicians work for themselves)
Now do the maths - India with $1,456 billion or $1.4 trillion, has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined. Public loot since 1947:
Can we bring back our money? It is one of the biggest loots witnessed by mankind -- the loot of the Aam Aadmi (common man) since 1947, by his brethren occupying public office. It has been orchestrated by politicians, bureaucrats and some businessmen.
The list is almost all-encompassing. No wonder, everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear... What is even more depressing in that this ill-gotten wealth of ours has been stashed away abroad into secret bank accounts located in some of the world's best known tax havens? And to that extent the Indian economy has been stripped of its wealth. Ordinary Indians may not be exactly aware of how such secret accounts operate and what are the rules and regulations that go on to govern such tax havens.
However, one may well be aware of 'Swiss bank accounts,' the shorthand for murky dealings, secrecy and of course pilferage from developing countries into rich developed ones.
In fact, some finance experts and economists believe tax havens to be a conspiracy of the western world against the poor countries. By allowing the proliferation of tax havens in the twentieth century, the western world explicitly encourages the movement of scarce capital from the developing countries to the rich. In March 2005, the Tax Justice Network (TJN) published a research finding demonstrating that $11.5 trillion of personal wealth was held offshore by rich individuals across the globe.
The findings estimated that a large proportion of this wealth was managed from some 70 tax havens. Further, augmenting these studies of TJN, Raymond Baker -- in his widely celebrated book titled 'Capitalism' s Achilles Heel'.
Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free Market System' -- estimates that at least $5 trillion have been shifted out of poorer countries to the West since the mid-1970.
It is further estimated by experts that one per cent of the world's population holds more than 57 per cent of total global wealth, routing it invariably through these tax havens. How much of this is from India is anybody's guess.
What is to be noted here is that most of the wealth of Indians parked in these tax havens is illegitimate money acquired through corrupt means. Naturally, the secrecy associated with the bank accounts in such places is central to the issue, not their low tax rates as the term 'tax havens' suggests. Remember Bofors and how India could not trace the ultimate beneficiary of those transactions because of the secrecy associated with these bank accounts?
Do you think it could be real as the 1.4trillion number is more than the GDP of India.
One thing is for sure that India is a land of theives. From top to bottom lot of thieves, not all though.
Maybe India should do the same as US, get Swiss banks to reveal the names of the thieves and unmask them in from front of India's Income Tax dept. and public.
India copies from US only things that they think fit them, not the good ones like pressuring Swiss banks to give out the names and balances.
Anon@11:33,
You did not read the entire piece did you? Venky Iyer is saying the Swiss govt. is ready to share details...all the Indian Govt. needs to do is ask!!
Which the Indian Govt. is refusing to do.
On another note, just watching these snakes on the video makes one feel that these jokers and people who believe their crap deserve whats going to come..These builders are experts at lying playing con games and cheating. The keystone guy says people are making more money and therefore demanding more amenities....these assholes made a decision to make so called "luxury apartments." Whose cost of construction if you amortise across the 600 apartments in a typical tower and buy in bulk is nothing...they are just coming up with excuses to blow up the prices. Land costs are very high??!! so the govt. needs to provide more land, more infrastructure, more bailouts and more stimulus..If this is true, why do these basturds do business? what is the value they are adding?
I agree with Shailesh, Mumbai is a shithole which has actually gone down the drain after 1947 and all the lakhs of crores in Municipal and Public Works Department budgets have been systematically siphoned...now if the aam aadmi has any savings left despite all the crap he has to bear and pollution he has to breathe, work for 16 hours ...whatever savings he has is being systematically sucked by these parasites alongwith govt.
Democracy and governance has truly sucked the blood of the working Indian Middle class.
Some sort of revolution is required and will happen....
No revolution will happen in the land of thieves. The country is run and inhabited by morons. The prices will go down by 60% and then people will again forget after 4-5 years and the same BS all over again. Rich will get richer and poor poorer.
Mumbai Suburban railway is on brink of explosion. In 1990 -1993 one had at least place to stand traveling from South Mumbai Up north/east.
Now try getting place on Dombivli fast or Borivli/Nala sopara Fast local (if you board in between). If you get a seat in IInd class take a picture where you boarded and where you got seat, I will reward you with MP3 player ...
The uncultured crowd has ruined Mumbai's reputation. No wonder MNS SS are protesting influx from UP Bihar Bangladesh. These migrants have no education and dont pay for tickets, use the rail track as open toilet and sleep on footpaths. How can Manmohan Singh claim Mumabi is like Singapore?
Mumbai needs to have Fast Urban Transit Faster and more room (double decked) locals, connecting buses, free shuttles for residents to local mass transit, easy access to stations, line system and entry system in suburban stations, etc, etc. The only way to tackle the UP - Bihar problem is not by stopping them but by enforcing strict rules.
Dedicated Zoning for commerce/industry and high speed transit to these locations. Haphazard placed industry, commercial complexes, illegal slums, disastrous health conditions, will never see Mumbai rise.
My father was posted in Mumbai for 3 years in 90's and he preferred to do commute everyday to mumbai on Deccan Queen Train from Pune instead of staying in the hell hole. People who are proud of Mumbai have seen its better past upto 1995. Ever since Narasimha Rao and MMS opened up economy, they never anticipated urban poverty and skewed demography. If Mumbai has to make itself stand out, there should be some serious steps.
If Cong NCP wins this election get ready for 5 more years of no-development. Think and vote please.
Enough Bullshit about Affordability.
No one has asked about price reduction. One can make arguments in either way & prove anything. Yes, when people become learned it becomes very easy to fool them. Because they always start applying what is written in book instead of own thinking. And today’s media make it very easy to deceive the learned people.
Anyway, India is going to resolve this problem on its own. India already has 30% naxalites.
In the past, our ancestors divided the society based on castes & we have seen the effect of reservation policies. One can debate anything about it but the change is irreversible.
Today we have bowed the seeds of social disparity, which will become the next partitioning/dividing theme of the country. There are already good amount(30%) of naxalites. In the remote part of the country they are operating as naxalites & in metro they are operating as Gangsters. Now the growing disparity in society is forcing people to join the new community with
a rapid pace.
http://naxalwar.wordpress.com/
Vulture.
Media is sold and fucked up. Indians should think about India and not carried away by greed. But capitalism would take its cycle and by the time Indians realise, it may be too late.
What a shame.
--HB
Good video Shailesh. Everyone knows that Mumbai is out of reach of every mumbaikar save 0.1% of the population. 99.9% people cannot afford to purchase a home in the hell hole. I have repeatedly said that whoever can move, should move to Pune, Banglore, chennai, hyderabad where prices are affordable and jobs available. Before 2000, the biggest cities for job growth were Mumbai and Delhi. Now cities of the south have caught up. Even if each of these places had the same crappy quality of life as Mumbai, atleast you could live that life in an affordable home.
Mr. Chawl Kumar/Sulab,
You are seeing shit everywhere because you are in deep shit. Dont worry sometime in future you will be able to buy, till then pay rent and be happy.I really find your post very hilarious because every second person who writes in favour of property you see me in him. HA HA HA :-) :-)
Hey I am seeing old post of Vulture floating around. I had told Vulture in beginning this year that you will stop posting from June onwards and even this predicition of mine has come true. I am just loving it.
I am just loving the frustration of Mr. Chawl Kumar.
Property prices will only rise till it reaches 25 times your annual salary for 1BHK in Chembur. I am talking about middle level executive in an non IT firm.
Guys keep dreaming but the prices will only move up and most of the guys who are defying this especially types of Chawl Kumar will only buy in peak from people like us.
Happy dreaming!!!! :-)
Bindas Bhai
Bindaas Bhai Vik and promoters of this blog.
Whether property prices fall or not but you all are making good money from Ad Clicks on this blog.
Bindaas Bhai is nothing but one of the promoters of this blog to drive more traffic in this blog. Having an anti on the forum drives more traffic.
You guys keep arguing on this blog and keep their cash registers ringiing.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/Buyers-realise-homes-still-out-of-reach/articleshow/5095684.cms
Property prices across the country are 10-25% lower than their peak in early 2008. Bank rates are about 4 percentage points lower. Still, the vast majority of the exploding middle class, which aspires to own a home, is not taking the plunge. Homes are still not affordable. Those described as 'affordable homes' are hardly homes.
"The rates may have come down, but even today, the prices quoted by sellers are too high," said Shravan Desai, an employee at an MNC in Mumbai. "The developers have reduced the price, but have started charging more for the parking space, which one has to compulsorily buy and that too pay black money for that," fumes Mr Desai, who has been hunting for a home for the past two years.
Many builders who might have collapsed last year but for the Reserve Bank of India's intervention, are raising prices on the back of the feel-good factor following the record rally in stocks, waning fear of job losses and the return of bonuses, though isolated.
DLF, the country's largest builder, has raised the price at its Capital Greens project by 25% to Rs 5,677 per sq ft. In Madhapur, Hyderabad, a 2,000 sq ft flat, which cost Rs 30 lakh in 2008, has doubled to Rs 60 lakh. A not-so-comforting rise for millions of aspirants.
"Properties and loans are still expensive for us," says Mrinalini, an employee at a technology company in the Capital.
Some builders also think that price hikes could destroy demand. "It is not very wise to increase prices drastically now," said Niranjan Hiranandani, managing director, Hiranandani Group, recently. "The market has just recovered and the buyers are returning."
For all the hype about the revival of the real estate market, the government's treasury is giving a different picture.
For instance, in North Chennai, between January and August, property registrations dropped to 19,834 from 39,331, compared to the same period last year, and so is the case with many regions.
"We have delayed our purchase in anticipation of a further fall in prices," said GV Rao, an ex-employee of Andhra Bank, in Hyderabad.
The lack of trust on the builders' ability to deliver homes on time and the fear that low interest rates could be a trap are keeping many buyers away.
Thousands of aspirants remain trapped with money sunk, as developers could not complete projects on time and in some cases where construction has been suspended, buyers do not know whether they would ever get their dream homes, or whether it will remain a dream.
"I couldn't sleep for days," says Dinesh Verma, a Delhi-based chartered accountant who booked a Rs 50-lakh house at DLF's New Town Heights project in Gurgaon. "After having taken 42% of the payment, DLF came back to tell us that it didn't have necessary licences to start construction." DLF assured Mr Verma and a thousand others that they would get their money back without interest within six months. Mr Verma is yet to receive his money.
DLF is not alone. Hundreds of builders across the country overstretched themselves by buying up property hoping to sell all.
The past few months have seen many companies such as Unitech, the second-largest builder of homes, and HDIL raising hundreds of crores to repay debt and resume construction.
That has given hope to prospective buyers that property prices will resume their rally, as billions of dollars of government-sponsored incentives to boost demand seem to be having effect.
"The stock market is doing good, and we have spared money to invest, and in Mumbai, real estate is a very safe bet. I would rather invest in real estate here than invest in gold or play bigger bets in the capital market," said Ramniklal Jain.
There are lot of other guys who are pro RE, why are you targeting only BB?
Anon@1:46 and Sundaas Bhai,
I have no problems you calling me chawl kumar, sulabh or what have you...primarily because you have accepted yourself as Sundaas Bhai :))
Also, you admitted that there will be a peak and in the other post you also admitted that prices might fall in the future. So you do have instances of sanity where you know that RE prices will not keep going up forever and one day we will get our prices.
As far as being in shit is concerned, I can see that you have problems comprehending english too..I am based out of US, where even a chawl is better than luxury apartments in Mumbai. Also, my entire earlier post was about the governance and corruption eating away India/Mumbai..which you can differ on only if you work with the BMC or PWD. Seeing your posts and your low IQ this is a distinct possibility.
Actually if property prices balloon, I am very happy. You see people like me wait till we get the right price. So balloon's mean bursting is close at hand and which means I get true value..
Difficult things to explain to you, because I am starting to realize that like your name your brain consists of crap too... So laugh away, we will laugh last and loudest...
Realty rates up as ready flat stock dwindles
Not surprising then, analysts are signalling caution. At a panel discussion on real estate organised by DNA recently, Balaji Rao, managing director of Starwood Capital Venture, said that the rebound in the property market had been driven to a large extent by the various fiscal stimuli and monetary easing measures undertaken by the government.
``But I feel this could be just a dead cat bounce. If the markets do not catch traction, then the possibility of a double dip is real. To effect such a takeoff, it is critical that the developers hold prices and keep pushing volumes,'' said Rao.
dead cat bounce !!! Meow !!
Whoa Whoa - Please dont get personal.
No one is making money here.
People are thinking all builders are bad. You should realize that building a home is not that easy. Builders take huge risks in investing and i honestly dont think their margins are 400-600%. The relative margins may not even be a 10th of that. Every month a house is unsold and unoccupied, builders lose millions of Rupees in interest to the same banks we buyers dont want to pay interest.
I agree that there is a mafia-politician-builder-Realtor nexus, but many genuine honest builders exist - but breaking nexus that is not in our hands. Isnt it you/us guys who voted the UPA back in Center. I am sure, a non Congress govt would have helped in reducing prices.
AFAIK Navi Mumbai rates are becoming reasonable - if you see the Navi Mumbai Suburban rail network plan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mumbai_suburban_rail_map.svg) and soon to come International Airport, there is no reason to prefer Mumbai. You can just work of NM, NM has very good schools-colleges (almost as good as or even better than Pune), good Malls, good life in terms of crowd, good roads. If Husband wife both work, I suggest you should buy one house via your wife's funds in Navi Mumbai. that ways you have a nice backup...
I know many who work in Mumbai, own home in Navi Mumbai and rent/lease a house in proper Mumbai. To Be honest one should also reassess the value of buying in Mumbai/Slumbai.
@ Shriniwas K 10:13 AM
If Husband wife both work, I suggest you should buy one house via your wife's funds in Navi Mumbai. that ways you have a nice backup...
what a moronic idea? so you (builders) are keeping any eye on spouse's income... also you ( builders) are in touch with the HR departments of the companies to glean the information about future salary hikes. These are FUNDAMENTALS to justify the irrational hike in property prices… Shame on you..!
We are not going to spend a single paisa to buy these homes.
Property price 25 times annual salary!!
I believe i can educate the other bloggers
Price = 25 *12 = 300 months
Interest at 12.75 % = 38.25 months salary per annum 3.1875 months salary per month
Interest at 7.0 % = 21 months salary per annum 1.75 months salary per month
Interest at 5.0 % (US Rate) = 15 months salary per annum 1.25 months salary per month
to pay just the interest you need to increase your salary from 1.25 times to 3.1875 times!!
Utter non sense... Whats there in that place... I have been to Chembur and brother stayed in a rented house... the rent was 7K...
If i use my fathers principle you cannot leverage and save money and pay for things you need to buy...
If i need to buy a house 25 times annual salary -
I can save 25 % of my salary.. if i invest it wisely its possible that in 50 years i can get the money to buy this house... i will be 70 + !! Why should i stay in Chembur...
Guys Chembur is not Switzerland...
@ Anonymous at 10.21 Am Pacific Time.
I am not builder.
I am not targeting people who are fence sitters. There is no lack of genuine buyers. For 6000 flats on MHADA in Versova, Ghatkopar Bypass and one more location there were 2.5 lakh applications.
The lottery was held invalid due to apparently fraudulent software.
What is the use of buying 2bhk apartment in Mumbai suburb for 60 lakh when you can get 2 houses in Navi Mumbai for same price. Whats so great about staying in Mumbai v/s Navi Mumbai unless your job is only possible to be done in Mumbai.
Wake up! Hyderabad, bangalore, Pune, NM, Nagpur, Jaipur, all are having nice deals now. I am getting a deal for Rs 2650 sq feet in West Pune where rate was not less than 3500-3700 in 2008 start and was 2300-2400 in 2005.
I can bet my savings on the fact that prices wont go below early 2005 levels.
However I am also staunch that rates wont go up either. At least for 2-3 years. IT/BPO and to some extent gems/Jewellery and Automobile engineering exports have been driving the real Indian Urban Market. As long as these industries suffer there wont be any boom. So My take is that unless any thing catastrophic happens (like war/ massive earthquake) Real Estate rates wont collapse. Instead opportunistic buyers will make decent deals and get good price with builders.
I am still just 25 years old so even if I suffer a loss, my whole life is not going to be ruined.
My another big concern is that Govt Employees who have fat salaries thanks to 6th pay commission - along with bribe black money will hoard houses as soon as rates correct.
Update on Govt salaries -
class 1 officer Senior - 10 lakh per annum
class 1 officer junior - 8 lakh per annum
class 2 officer senior - 6 lakh per annum
class 2 jr class 3 sr - 4-5 lakh per annum.
If you dont buy, these people will jump in. Think about it ...
Shriniwas 10.13
Can you tell me which builder is honest?
Politicians dont allow honest RE business to exist - they do not want it. They are happy with their fantastic nexus of 60 years - it has stood the test of time!
Venkat ND
@ Venkateshwaran
In Pune I personally know 2-3 builders. They themselves admit that politicians mafia etc have left no other option.
Ex Paranjpe Schemes, DS Kulkarni, Goel Ganga Group, Kumar, Gera, Konark, Gulmohar, etc etc - theses guys are not gentlemen but they have at times delivered good housing schemes. in Pune these builders have their reputation and have maintained it. Similarly every city locally has its long time reputed builders.
The new IPO boosted players are the ones which are unscrupulous - Ex DLF, Omaxe, Sobha, Unitech, sahara et al. I have no clue about their dealings
If you are so skeptical, you should buy land and build your own house. In places where that is not possible, its never going to be in future. Check out Insignia pune and aarohi pune are group housing schemes where individuals group together and buy land and construct their own complex.
In India, Property Stocks Act Like Tech
Among the hottest of the Indian property stocks is Unitech Ltd., a company based in Gurgaon outside India's capital. Unitech says it buys land through hundreds of subsidiaries, counts revenue from projects before they are fully built and books interest on loans from undeveloped land acquisitions as capital instead of operating expenses, practices prohibited by international financial-reporting standards that U.S. and European companies are required to follow.
Sanjay Chandra, Unitech's managing director and son of its founder, says these practices are acceptable in India, where there are no accounting guidelines for the real-estate industry. "What we're doing is perfectly legal," he says.
Some analysts contend that their lax accounting practices, opaque financial statements and complex off-balance-sheet transactions hide key facts from investors and inflate the companies' stated performance.
From above article,
Chandra says Unitech needs its 380 subsidiaries in order to navigate local government restrictions on the amount of agricultural land a company can purchase, typically small plots of 10 to 20 acres. He also says Unitech limits disclosure on land deals for competitive reasons.
Even these guys who raise money thru IPO, can not really buy land using white money. They have to use these subsidiaries to make purchases and grease the wheel to say. The lack of accounting standards are not unusual in India, or most like they are bent in weird ways.
Shriniwas - I only believe in buying ready home, even if it means paying little more. Peace of mind is worth it.
@ Shriniwas K
Government employees with the salaries quoted by you, will think thousand times before purchasing any overvalued asset because for them the salary is not an EASY MONEY. I firmly believe that they perform the thorough due diligence before risking the life savings .
It is only the speculators with the easy/cheap money who can play this game and currently they are playing.
The suggestion that " if the spouse is working then use that money (salary) towards paying the EMIs" is specious, stupid and stinks of Moral Hazard. Please use that money for other better things and not to pay the rewards for the bets taken by bankers and builders. If you think that your spouse is entitled to the slavery of the banks and builders then it is your individual choice.
Genuine home buyers please don’t fall prey to the false propaganda of " Prices are going to move up". This is just a plain nonsense. The recent uptick in the real estate market is due to Buy-Sell game among the brokers, builders, bank managers and the suckers.
Had the Reserve Bank of India not allowed the banks and housing finance companies to change the rules (rollover of debt) regarding classifying the due residential and commercial mortgage loans as Non Performing Assets (NPAs) and cook the books, the real estate would have crashed by this time.
US consumers cut borrowing
By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
On 4:48 pm EDT, Wednesday October 7, 2009
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. consumers reduced their borrowing for the seventh straight month in August, as households worked to pay off debt and banks reduced credit card limits.
Americans are saving more and borrowing less as widespread job losses, stagnant wages and dwindling home values have spurred a move to greater frugality. While that's a positive trend in the long run, economists say, it can weaken the fledgling recovery as consumer spending powers about 70 percent of the economy.
"Consumers are clearly becoming much more conservative about their spending habits (and) paying down debts," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities. "This is likely to continue."
The declines reflect both a drop in demand for credit by consumers, as well as tighter standards among banks and other lenders.
@Shriniwas K ...
I am also looking for a apartment in Pune-West(Baner, Pashan, Wakad, Pimpale Saudagar etc.). If you can share some info about the projects & rate will be really appreciated, Thanks.
I think south mumbai and most burbs are priced for perfection. There is not much room on the upside, simply because it would be cheaper to buy a place in NY than Mumbai. The incomes or wealth (black or white) do not justify any significant increase. Will the prices go down, maybe, maybe not.
The big variable is high inflation, thay will destroy all savings.
NRI
@Anonymous 4.43 pm PDT,
Baner Hills-Balewadi area has lot of good options - rates from 2700-3100 negotiate hard -
Prakriti, Aditya Comfort Zone, Gera, Pride purple etc etc have good projects - Please see Ravi Karandeekars blog - he has good list. Baner-Pashan-SusRd-aundh is about 4000-4200 Rs psft. Wakad and Pimple Saudagar-Nilakh-Rahatni is 2300-2500 - All are close to Software park and university circle. Warje, bavdhan, sinhagad road are ranging from 2200-3200. I am not interested in East/south pune.
@Anonymous 2.16 pacific time
Government employees dont have problem of job security. They are hooked for life. If prices fall from 3200 to say 1800, Govt employees will lap up all houses before you get a chance. So dont have ostrich mentality
-----------------------
Government cant let down the construction industry. Every housing project of about 1000 flats employs at least 1000 people directly and about same number indirectly. If the RE falls, then these people will lose jobs.
I have seen how the RE crash in US stopped construction projects all together especially in Greater Phoenix area, Inland Empire (San Bernardino-Ontario-East LA), SF Bay area and Detroit. If a huge crash happened in India, lakhs of construction workers will be rendered jobless.
Agreed that greedy builders have propped up prices - but the real question is how much is the baseline price? What is the real demand supply determined price of housing. So should prices fall 10-20%, 30-40% from current, or stay stagnant for say another year. I think this question is more important! Blindly believing 70% fall is foolish .
One thing is imminent there wont be any Growth.
Anon above:
If the prices can go up 400%, why 70% drop from the peak value is not possible.
Just because all world banks are fueling their economies by stimulus and low interest rates. This whold ehting will come like a pack of cards. Just a mtter of time. SOmetimes I feel it will over correct and prices may fall below 1990 values of RE all over the world. Major bumps are ahead. DOn't be too optimistic. Easy come, easy go.
@Shrinivas K,2:04PM
Agree..buyers can certainly give at least a thought of grouping together and doing something for themselves instead of giving everything to builders and letting them take advantages on their will. Our earlier generations were far better than us in some sense I guess. They used to save first, form group or join with like minded people through networking and then consider the options keeping their interests and budgets in mind.
Once such similar initiative I came across started recently in Pune. You can find more info on blog - Housing Self Help Group in Pune
- Ajay
Mr. Chawl Kumar/Sulab said..
I have no problems you calling me chawl kumar, sulabh or what have you...primarily because you have accepted yourself as Sundaas Bhai :))
You don’t have to tell this because we all know that people who call others name have no problem being called names. I am sure your parents and teachers may have told you this :-)
Mr.Chawl Kumar/Sulab said..
Also, you admitted that there will be a peak and in the other post you also admitted that prices might fall in the future. So you do have instances of sanity where you know that RE prices will not keep going up forever and one day we will get our prices.
Dear Sulab,
I am not adamant like you guys. Some time back when Mr. Pradeep Shah Founder of CRISIL mentioned that Indian RE has an exposure of 30k crores, i also thought that RE is bound to fall and the same reflected in my earlier post. Later things changed with various countries started announcing stimulus package including India. I remember Sameer Arora mentioning on CNBC he did a deal One Billion US$ deal in twenty minutes for DLF.
Now with this kind of liquidity, Congress in centre and obviously with demand in place what do you expect me to say?
If you could remember I said minimum 50% increase for Mumbai in two years and requested buyers to buy before the rains end. I personally did not think that the price will increase by 25% in just three months. Now i feel minimum 80% increase in two years from pre-election price. Let us wait and watch Mr. Sulab!!!
Mr. Chawl Kumar/Sulab said..
As far as being in shit is concerned, I can see that you have problems comprehending english too..I am based out of US, where even a chawl is better than luxury apartments in Mumbai. Also, my entire earlier post was about the governance and corruption eating away India/Mumbai..which you can differ on only if you work with the BMC or PWD. Seeing your posts and your low IQ this is a distinct possibility.
Mr. Sulab,
Thanks for the above comment let the readers decide whether it is worth reading your comments or mine!!
Mr. Chawls Kumar/Sulab said...
Actually if property prices balloon, I am very happy. You see people like me wait till we get the right price. So balloon's mean bursting is close at hand and which means I get true value..
Difficult things to explain to you, because I am starting to realize that like your name your brain consists of crap too... So laugh away, we will laugh last and loudest...
Sulab,
We really don’t know how much Rupee will lose its value, how commodity prices will move and host of other factor will decide when there will be crash and how much it will be. Guys like you have been talking about crash for last three years!!
Relax Sulab and learn to accept things in the right spirit, in life we all go wrong but sometimes what is wrong today will seem right at a later date.
All the best!!!
Bindas Bhai
Anon: 11:37
Bindaas Bhai Vik and promoters of this blog.
Whether property prices fall or not but you all are making good money from Ad Clicks on this blog.
Bindaas Bhai is nothing but one of the promoters of this blog to drive more traffic in this blog. Having an anti on the forum drives more traffic.
You guys keep arguing on this blog and keep their cash registers ringiing.
-----------------------------------
What is wrong in Vik making money, he has worked hard to build this blog since 2005. Guys like you can never see others making money. Pls. learn to be happy when others make money.
Bindas Bhai
Swami said...
Property price 25 times annual salary!!
I believe i can educate the other bloggers
Price = 25 *12 = 300 months
Interest at 12.75 % = 38.25 months salary per annum 3.1875 months salary per month
Interest at 7.0 % = 21 months salary per annum 1.75 months salary per month
Interest at 5.0 % (US Rate) = 15 months salary per annum 1.25 months salary per month
to pay just the interest you need to increase your salary from 1.25 times to 3.1875 times!!
Utter non sense... Whats there in that place... I have been to Chembur and brother stayed in a rented house... the rent was 7K...
-----------------------------------
Good one, but sentiments will always overide fundamentals. Kindly ask your brother what was the price for 1BHK in chembur(diamond garden) in 1994/95. In case he has forgotten, it was 35 lakhs for One BHK, now let the forum know the average salary during those days.
96 we saw a crash and the price fell to 16 Lakhs in just one year.
Bindas Bhai
Mumbai is unafforable for 99.999% of population
but guys like Mukesh Ambani building a 10000 crore home for a family of 4?
Where is he getting this kind of money. Is it that the shareholders of RIL paying for their luxury
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=6_2balScoZ2wxOQS4ugIfGCQ_3d_3d
Take the Survey on RE.
Vik,
Excellent analysis by Ajit Dayal of equity master. This article deserves a front page entry.
http://www.equitymaster.com/ht/detail.asp?date=10/8/2009&story=2
Yes...
Thanks for the link, anon.
I read the column by ajit dayal.
It was an eye opener.
He says things in an easy to read manner and presents the side of common man wonderfully.
Hats off to him.
I was told that the quantum mutual fund house led by ajit dayal is going short on real estate stocks over the last two weeks.
I think RE investors are yet to learn the lesson.
And have you noticed the movement of rupee.The grapevine is that RBI would let rupee slide to a maximum of 46/$.
Anything beyond that will hit the January quarter of IT companies adversely.
K.Gokul.
@Anonymous 5:22 AM Thank you for the post. I have repeatedly mentioned in this forum that the Bankers are the main villain and dacoits of this drama.
Suggestion Walk up to your neighbourhood bank branch manager and ask him, "How much of my bank deposit in your bank is going to fund real estate developers who then keep prices so high that I cannot afford to buy real estate?" as suggested by Ajit Dayal may not work because the bankers are hard skin animals and they will not act in the best interest of aam aadmi.
Instead of this we can invest money in other assets e.g Gold and more effective way is not to buy any financial product i.e. Housing Loans, Insurance etc from these crooks.
I am reposting my previous comments : 06Sept2009
We are missing the main Villain of this story of Real Estate Bubbles. The petty criminals i.e. brokers are becoming the target of angers. Yes they should be punished for their immoral behavior and what about the big guerilla sitting in the room is going unnoticed. It is nothing but the lenders i.e. Banks. Had the banks not rolled over the debts, all these criminals would have been trashed under the debris of real estate crash.
The banks very well know that there is a special class of slaves... yeh you guessed correctly .. Middle Class or so called Upper Middle class. This class will work throughout their lives working hard to pay the EMIs and making sure that the Banks Managers and Builders nexus thrives forever.
Please check the following link to know how the Reserve Bank of India and several national banks helped bailing out these crooks. But one thing is sure that this ponzi scheme is on the last leg since the new entrants e.g. IT Techies ( hard hit due to recession and lay-offs) have disappeared. In few cases the passed outs of 2007 batch have been asked to join the BPO unit for the consolidated salary of Rs 5000
HDIL Rolls Over Rs 2,500 cr Debt
Indian Realty News
Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL), a Mumbai-based property developer, has rolled over Rs 2,500 crore debt it has taken from commercial banks for the next 15-18 months, a top company official has said. The company has rolled over the debt taken from public sector banks such as Bank of India, Union Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Uco Bank, among others. The restructured debt was due in the next couple of months.
~ Almost all real estate developers have used the recent lifeline allowed by the Reserve Bank of India to restructure their loans as they are hit by slowing home sales and mounting debt.
~ DLF, the country’s largest realty company, refinanced about Rs 2,000 crore loan at a 12-13 per cent interest rate out of the Rs 4,300 crore it needed to repay by June this year.
~ Unitech , has restructured Rs 1,000 crore of debt with public sector banks and rolled over Rs 500 crore it has borrowed from mutual funds for three months.
~ Developers such as Omaxe, Puravankara and Sobha Developers are in talks with banks and financial institutions to restructure their loans. But analysts say restructuring will only solve short-term worries of realtors. “Realty companies are either rolling over their loans or refinancing to pay their existing loans, which is increasing their debt levels. Today, their debt levels are the same as in March 2008,” said an analyst with rating firm who did not wish to be quoted.
Planning to buy a house? Do it right now!
What should you keep in mind while buying a house? How can one get the best bargain?
In an hour-long chat on Thursday, Santosh Naik, managing director and chief executive of Disha Direct Marketing Services Pvt Ltd, answered many such queries. Here is the transcript:
@ Bhai - Kumar-et al
Please stop hurling personal abuses. I guess the urge to yell makes you guys think that typing replies on an online forum is equivalent to shouting in a real world debate fight. People who are holding on for rates to collapse, you are playing a gamble - The rates may or may not come down - but I will still suggest rates will stay stagnant but inflation wont.
@People buying for Investment - please consider tier 2 cities
@People buying to stay && not in Mumbai - these next 5 months will be golden period for negotiation especially for near complete projects. From next year the rates wont collapse but wont raise either. Builders will take their sweet time to build new projects. It would be advisable then to now book something that can be delivered next year than wait for next year for a plan on paper.
#Broker Nexus - Everyone on the planet wants to make profit and make a living. some poeple see EMI as slavery - others see monthly rent as slavery, others see staying with parents being a burden on them as slavery. Its your call.
@Bhai - how are Thane, Navi Mumbai, North Borivali, Thane rates compared to 2005-06?
Be prepared for the next financial Tsunami..
Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate
OCTOBER 7, 2009, 4:56 P.M. ET
With Banks Slow to Take Losses, Fears of a Residential-Bust Repeat; 'More Pain Likely Lies Ahead'
BY LINGLING WEI AND MAURICE TAMMAN
Banks in the U.S. "are slow" to take losses on their commercial real-estate loans being battered by slumping property values and rental payments , according to a Federal Reserve presentation to banking regulators last month.
The remarks suggest that banking regulators are girding for a rerun of the housing-related losses now slamming thousands of banks that failed to set aside enough capital during the boom to cushion themselves when the bubble burst. "Banks will be slow to recognize the severity of the loss -- just as they were in residential," according to the Fed presentation, which was reviewed by The Wall ...
@ Shrinivas K 2.04
That was a good bit of information though I am in Delhi (ND)not Pune.
Most developers deliver good products. Their dishonesty is in how they buy land and how they allot flats to their crony brokers/small time politicians.
I agree totally with the recent IPO RE gangs. They were the worst in the excess
I might be skeptical, but I might still buy from a builder! I dont want to waste my time and effort in becoming a mason :-) Also, buying land is also not without risks - maybe even more.
@ Shailesh
I know about builders not being able to buy large parcels of land. Their accounting practice details were an eye opener though.
@ Anon 2.16
Every govt employee in Delhi - which is full of them - is busy booking flats, I can vouch for that. And spouse's second income definitely is used for the EMI, its true for almost everyone I know. Most register in the wife's name since stamp duty is less. By the way, a big chunk of money has been released for govt employees this October. Expect good sales for cars (half the crowd) and flat bookings this Diwali.
Cheers, Venkat ND.
PS. BB, keep it down a bit. Your arguments were a lot more persuasive than your random abuse.
Repeat of housing bubble, lawmakers worry
By Jim Puzzanghera
October 8, 2009
The percentage of loans backed by the agency that are delinquent or in foreclosure hit nearly 8% at the end of June. Critics say borrowers don't have enough of a stake in keeping up with payments.
Roubini says housing market hasn't bottomed
On 12:16 pm EDT, Thursday October 8, 2009
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. housing prices may still fall more than 10 percent, killing an incipient recovery, as demand from first-time home buyers fades, leading economist Nouriel Roubini said on Thursday.
Roubini, one of the few economists who accurately predicted the magnitude of the financial crisis, said massive losses in commercial real estate loans will add to the problem, forcing banks to raise more capital.
"The stress is moving from residential mortgages that are still in deep trouble, to commercial real estate, where they are just starting to recognize that they're going to have massive, massive losses ," Roubini of RGE Global Monitor told reporters after a presentation for a World Economic Forum report on the global financial system.
One of the main risks next year may be from losses on some $2 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate loans, the economist predicted.
The cheap and easy money has played havoc with the lives of many hard working and honest people around the world. (created a massive Real Estate Bubbles around the world). The current stock market rally in India is a prime example of the abuse of the cheap money.
This insanity will not continue for a long time. The Fed chairman is being questioned for his role.
@Vik..please check whether the following link deserves the place on the front page
Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) ask Senate to postpone the confirmation of Ben Bernanke
On 12:16 pm EDT, Thursday October 8, 2009
First Posted: 10-7-09 04:49 PM | Updated: 10-7-09 06:10 PM
The letter calls out the Fed for its role in the Wall Street bailout.
"Today, big banks are being bailed out and have a substantially lower cost of capital through an implicit government backstop even as Americans themselves are seeing their pay cut," the letter says. "This lower cost of capital -- at government expense -- coupled with increased scarcity of credit is resulting in the banks recapitalizing by charging American consumers higher credit costs, including record overdraft fees and much higher credit card rates."
Anoymous @ 7.09 am Pacific time
I have repeatedly mentioned in this forum that the Bankers are the main villain and dacoits of this drama.
Suggestion Walk up to your neighbourhood bank branch manager and ask him, "How much of my bank deposit in your bank is going to fund real estate developers who then keep prices so high that I cannot afford to buy real estate?" as suggested by Ajit Dayal may not work because the bankers are hard skin animals and they will not act in the best interest of aam aadmi.
------------------- -----------------
You need education - Bank deposits DO NOT fund loans.
Money is printed as and when loans are taken. It is basic principle of how money works. A bank needs to have some deposits (I think its called CRR) but deposits DO NOT exceed loans - the loans exceed deposits. Banks borrow from Central Banks (on the Repo rate) and Central banks show it on the Country's balance sheet (Goes to our national budget deficit). US national deficit is 1.4 Trillion Dollars, Indias deficit is about 279 b US$ ?? please correct the numbers.
The government prints money as and when needed in return is the promise of the borrower to pay back with interest. This has been going on since World War 2. US is not scared of money stashed in Switzerland because that money is worthless unless its converted to Gold/precious metals. its just a piece of paper.
Sundaas Bhai,
I am just glad that you and everyone in this forum know exactly who I mean when I say Sundaas..Its also very clear to me that this term and all my comments have made you extremely agitated. Suddenly Vashi House Hunter has disappeared and you sound very scared..
Also Sundaaas,
You have been pretty adamant in the past. Shit bhai here has been saying that housing prices never fall..Suddenly he got so mad at me that he said he will sell me houses at the peak before the fall. Which means, Crap bhai is here to pump the market and sell to innocent victims houses at the peak..No wonder his comments stink of his shitty brain and character..
BTW SUndaas,
You have never said that Indian RE is going to fall...So RE still has massive debt exposure, now beyond 30K crore and with excess money printing leading to inflation these RE jokers will be faced with massive debt. Raising money might be easy, but the money has to be paid..and as RBI has been saying recently, Interest Rates have to climb up...much higher up to prevent hyperinflation. This will happen across the globe..so these jokers who are leveraged to the hilt will realize sooner or later that short term pain relief means long term terminal pain..You morons are just the kind of shitty characters who will be flushed due to all this liquidity :))
80% increase? Let's see!! I have still to see 50% increase which you were talking about in 3 months...for which if prices in your favorite chembure were 10K they should have become 15K..
Also Smelly Sundaas,
You are the one who praises your smelliness by writing posts under different pseudonyms...So even if you tell me that there are 5 people praising you at this blog then I know that you have posted congratulatory notes to yourself under 5 different names..
Also Retchy Sundaas,
Rupee will lose its value??!! Why??!! Are you telling me that your shitty talents now extends to macroeconomics??!! I have been seeing your poorly constructed syllogisms for months now. Like you said sometime or the other crash will occur..people like you who said don't time, are now saying that you will sell to me at the peak..
So, you also agree that a crash will occur, we do not know when(so what is surprising about that, no one know when exactly a crash will occur..).
Finally, my guttery Sundaas,
I am glad that in your anger or frustration at my comments you have finally started admitting that a Crash is going to happen sometime in the future...the more Builders borrow and raise prices the harder they are going to fall.
Sundaas..I would also urge to relax and stay in your gutter or potty...why pump and spoil other people's lives?
Also, flowy Sundaas,
Vik can defend himself..he does not need your endorsement does he?
One last thing cheesy Sundaas:
This comment of yours was too funny - "Good one, but sentiments will always overide fundamentals."
Having said that Sundaas bhai, your Sundaas brain spouted the 5 second contradiction -
1> Kindly ask your brother what was the price for 1BHK in chembur(diamond garden) in 1994/95. In case he has forgotten, it was 35 lakhs
2> 96 we saw a crash and the price fell to 16 Lakhs in just one year.
In those statements, I thought the lesson to be learnt was that fundamentals always overrides Sentiments!! But your Sundaas brain managed to learn the opposite lesson :))
You are hilarious Sundaas...if prices went up for one year but then crashed and remaind stagnant (like you shitty brain) for a long time it just illustrates that fundamentals triumphed over sentiment moron...But then flowy Sundaas Brains will have difficult grasping this concept or what kind of contradictions they are making...
Mr. Chawl Kumar/Sulab,
Sulab is also for urinating, why dont you say something on that :-).
Cheers!! you are one imaginative guy. BTW what is sulabs turnover and what position you work as. I guess you will be sitting to collect coins :-) HA HA HA.
Bindas Bhai
Dear BB,
What level you think Chembur will reach and when do you think it will crash?
Looks like Vulture has become insane and he is really angry with BB.
Atul Kulkarni
Venkat,
Sorry but at times i also loose my cool. People are frustrated for not buying a house and they try to remove the same on me, little knowing that this wont help.
Srinivas,
Thane and New Bomaby has seen maximum drop, this market will take some time to pick up,(excess supply).It is worth buying purely for self use.
Preeti,
In another 3 qtrs Chembur Diamond garden will touch 15k. It is very difficult to predict a crash but as i said the moment it reaches 25 years income (middle level non IT exec) to buy one BHK it is time to exit.
All the best!!
Bindas Bhai
Hi
Vashi Hunter Here
Looking at 2 to 3 BHK in sanpada and palm beach
Can arrange 47 lack white in 1 go ( No bank loan) but NO Black
Can pay 2% Commission to agents
Need all title clear flat,cidco tender plot built...already rejected Moraj Residency
No Ground floor NEED 2 parkings least 1
Sellers Dealers welcome..
Mail - mumbai10000@gmail.com
Sundaas Bhai,
More Sundaas in the form of other Anon comments...
You are pure Sundaas aren't you? Did not respond to any of the comments, changed the tack to make it more personal..
Ha Ha Ha Ha ...I can make out your Sundaas ness has grown more angry and frustrated because of the stink in your last few comments..
@Shriniwas K 2:52 PM
You need education - Bank deposits DO NOT fund loans. Money is printed as and when loans are taken.
You moron dont explain your point with the details of "Fractional-reserve banking" . They are not relevant.
Please remember it is the cheap money which has fuelled these all sorts of asset bubbles. It is very necessary to keep restrain ( ankush ) on how these depository institutions deploy our money.
@Anonymous 9.20 AM
Dude/Ma'am,
I did not say anything wrong, the real fact is that banks have to lend to make profits. So the lending policy has appropriately changed over years. Fractional reserve may not have initially apply to Indian banks, but most Indian are heading that way. Banks are hardly lending more than 70% of the house price which makes them safe if asset prices fall by 30%.
The real question is that how many Banks have miscalculated the valuations and have lent to the unscrupulous builders.
In fact I wholly agree that the easy money is indeed causing asset bubbles.
And please don't yell out names like a coward without exposing your own identity. This is not a slugfest blog.
@Shriniwas K 10:23 AM
So the lending policy has appropriately changed over years. ..The real question is that how many Banks have miscalculated the valuations ,
The bank policies have changed to suit their own interest. Take example of the HDFC bank. The chairman of the HDFC group has been telling from the roof top since 2005 that this is a massive real estate bubble. He expressed the same on "Walk the Talk" show with Shekhar Gupta. Inspite of this the group is doling out massive loans to real estate builders and feasting on the hard earned money of gullible home buyers. This is keeping real estate prices artificially at higher levels.
You are the most dangerous one who is yelling with the entire nonsense dribble like "if you have the money then buy the properties, if your spouse is working then use the money to pay for EMI, real estate prices would go down only 10 - 20 %". Please dont nudge the people to burn their money when you very well know that this bubble has been propped up by the government and Reserve bank of India.
@ Jayant, I am not influencing anyone not do I say that todays rates are justified.
I waited for 3 long years and finally bought a house for my parents in Pune just this month. Many of my friends also have bought in the present 4-5 months. In Pune at least I remember rates dilly-dallying near late 2004 - 2005 rates now. (Ex Wakad - 2300 in late 2004 now its 2350 and in Baner from 2006 its been 2600-2800 till date). For people working in IT/ working abroad, buying a 25-30 lakh house is not a big issue.
For many of them this can prove to be a good investment to buy IFF they have disposable income and are not paying EMI. In India its not safe to invest in any high risk investment either.
For example My uncle bought SBI Mutual funds from 2002-2006 but there has been hardly any significant return from it despite the stocks moving up and then crashing.
I admit that some areas in Pune itself have insane/absurd prices (Example - Kothrud has 5000 rs per sq foot where it has nothing different from the areas mentioned earlier).
I am still skeptical as to how much RE will fall from the present levels in areas where it has "fairly" corrected.
It is an open question. I am open for debate. I have nothing to lose as I am only going to buy a house in United States.
good...
zero to copy
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