NEW DELHI: Residential property prices in Mumbai are likely to fall by 10 per cent this year, but rise marginally in the NCR, a Crisil study said.
"We expect prices in Mumbai to decline by 8-10 per cent in 2011. In NCR, prices will move up marginally because of relatively better affordability," Crisil said.
While falling demand and rising interest rates are likely to bring down prices of residential properties in Mumbai, deep pockets of residents of national capital region may push up the rates marginally, it said.
Over 2010, the housing prices escalated up to 43 per cent in some pockets of Mumbai, while prices in NCR went up only by 6 per cent.
With real estate prices in the city escalating like crazy, lakhs is no longer the new lingo but it is all about crores these days. Buyers feel they are being priced out of the city and pushed northwards towards the outer edge
"I bought this apartment just eight months ago. The apartment is 700 sq.ft but I had to shell out almost my entire savings to buy this place," says Rachit Vyas.
They paid Rs 70 lakh for the 700 sq.ft one-bedroom flat. That too will become a pipe dream for many middle-class people. Realtors say soaring property prices mean the tiniest of places may cost over one crore rupees in a few years' time.
Rajesh Buhecha, a Borivali resident who bought a one-bedroom flat recently in Borivali, warned, "Prices will soar beyond, our reach. After a few years, it will be impossible to find anything in less than a crore in Mumbai." Already, many who want to buy a dream home in Mumbai say they have been priced out of the city.
A senior media professional, who worked half his life abroad and earned in dollars says he still doesn't have enough to buy a two-bedroom flat of his choice in places such as Bandra (W), Juhu or South Mumbai.
He cannot move beyond Juhu. So, he has no choice but to keep staying in rented apartments. Even couples with two salaries are finding it hard to take a loan and buy property, which is within their budget.
Fuelled by abundant liquidity, Indian stocks have been trading for more than a year on a price/earnings ratio well above their long-term average figure for forward earnings of 13.8 times. Even after the latest correction, the figure is around 16. The figure for the MSCI emerging market index is 12 and for the developed world around 12.5. On a price/book ratio, Indian shares don’t look that expensive in historic terms but are still pricey compared with EM peers – at 2.7 times versus 1.8 times.
So, even without allowing for possible shocks from the rest of the world – and India, as a big oil importer, is particularly exposed to rising oil prices – Indian equities may have further to fall by 30%.
Looks like party is really getting over for Sensex/Nifty. Another 30% drops would be there in the next month or so. It was way overinflated.
Pranab M. has no choice but to raise rates aggressively. Otherwise, India will be like Tunisia where people are on the streets due to high food prices.
Last month, I called the Taj Hotel chain, inquiring about the monthly rent for a tiny, 650-square-foot studio in a nice, corporate service building in the southern part of Mumbai. After reaching the booking agent, I was casually informed that the rate would be 4.5lacs per month, or 450,000 rupees -- or just over $10,000 per month.
She then asked me whether I was interested.
I was speechless. In a country where the average GDP is just more than $3,000 per year, how can an organization justify charging 3.3 times per capita GDP in a single month for one tiny studio apartment? That's analogous to a New York City studio apartment going for about $155,000 per month. Even in the most opulent buildings in the fanciest part of town, roughly zero people would pay that. Yet in India, they can and do.
When you spend time reflecting on this, you realize very quickly why so many Indians live in extreme poverty. Apartments in Taj Hotels are obviously an extreme example, but, in general, housing capacity in select cities runs extremely thin. This reality is only exacerbated by the vast canyons between those in India who "have" and those who "have not."
Tata Housing, Tata group's real estate wing, has signed an MoU worth Rs1,000 crore with the Gujarat government for building townships in the state.
The unique thing about these townships will be that they will also offer houses priced at less than Rs10 lakh a unit.
But the company is yet to acquire land for the townships it plans to build. "We have been looking for land in the state," said Brotin Banerjee, MD & CEO of Tata Housing Development Co Ltd. "We will acquire the land on our own or in public-private partnership but we want 30 to 50 acres, preferably near Ahmedabad."
The company has been looking for land in Gujarat for its township project since long. "Landowners' demand for payment in cash (at least in part) is one of the major hurdles for us in buying land in Gujarat," he said. "This problem is not limited only to Gujarat; it is there everywhere in the country. Now, our hopes are pinned on land from either the state government or some private party."
I feel that there is just too much money in the market post the international QE that all major central banks did after the 2008 crash, and there is no better place to launder it than real estate for the people who get the most money, I think such prices are here to stay for sometime.
Just like some decades ago the middle class got phased out of the main Mumbai city, today they are getting phased out of the suburbs and are being pushed out further.
If this does not end soon, then it will be new normal for our kids just like it was normal for us to think that main Mumbai residential areas ain't for us.
Give it 3 years and the house of cards will come crashing down. Now there is no guarantee if black money/fake money is floating around, in that case, its best to rent and short the heck out off the re stocks.
Anon above, I'll buy it or I've another friend who whould be interested. His name is Montek Singh. We've created this mess and will buy it from taxpayers money.
The gov’t of Tunisia has just announced a State of Emergency, probably meaning things are going to get ugly since protesters show no signs of backing down. Among the buildings attacked by rioters was the country’s central bank. Houses of relatives of government officials who have enriched themselves at the country’s expense have reportedly been looted.
Global food chain stretched to the limit Soaring prices spark fears of social unrest in developing world
“We are entering a danger territory,” Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said last week.
The U.N.’s fear is that the latest run-up in food prices could spark a repeat of the deadly food riots that broke out in 2008 in Haiti, Kenya and Somalia. That price spike was relatively short-lived. But Abbassian said the latest surge in food stuffs may be more sustained.
Hey guys, India is different. Scams, bomb blasts, corruption, poverty are forgotten in a day or two. People move on with their life and focus on survival, that is the spirit of India that no other nation has.
Also India is super power in becoming. We have youngest, brightest and large population in the world. Rest of the world is entering stagnation and saturation level.
Pls do not compare India with Haiti, Kenya, Somalia, Pakistan, China or America. We are much above all.
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS. Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo, is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS. Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo, is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS. Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo, is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
In 2008-09 recession, to encourage the builders to complete the projects, govt granted a 30% income tax exemption on all projects that will finish before Mar-2011. As usual babu lefts flaws in the rule.
As the RE projects span multiple years, builders use %completion method to report the income on financial statements. Once project completes 30% , they can report income & profit proportional to % of completion. The tax base is calculated based on cash received during the financial year. In order to rip the benefits of tax exemption, the builders changed the payment schedule instead of completing the projects. As per the accelerated payment schedule, buyer needs to pay 80% amount on completion of final(last floor) slab work. Today most of the projects have just completed the final slab work & buyers has paid 80% amount. So on one side builders are using buyer’s money without delivery & other side ripping the tax benefits.
If govt. wants to do anything at all, they should demand the municipal corporation’s completion certificate from all who are claiming the tax exemption. Also the accounting board should address the issue of measurement of %completion.
What I find interesting is that these protests and the subsequent regime change in Tunisia (and potentially in Algeria and Jordan — though they don’t look so serious right now), are not because of human rights violations or fundamentalists taking over the country. In fact, there is nothing ‘Islamic’ about the protests in the three countries.
The culprit is simple economics — and its survival implications.
When prices go out of control, governments feel the pressure. But the inflation rate is 6.1% in Jordan, 3.5% in Tunisia, 5.7% in Algeria. These rates seem aspirational for India, where price rises are in double digits.
Inflation, as we all know, is religion-agnostic. In post Cultural Revolution secular China, with Buddhism, Taoism, and Confucianism as the dominant religions, it stands at 5.1%. In the Hindu-dominated secular India, the inflation rate hit 8.4%, with consumer price inflation at a high 12%.
But there’s a difference between the Arab nations and Chindia. In the former, the fire of inflation has all but burnt the establishment. As far as the world’s two fastest-growing economies are concerned, the revolutions and regime changes will be delayed. In China, because of a strong military. In India, because of elections.
Inflation has become the biggest enemy of a perplexed global establishment. The Indian government will need to look beyond the archaic banning of exports, restrictions on sale and throwing a corrupt IT department to raid traders. Our policymakers seem to have forgotten that India is now a trillion-dollar economy, and tools of economic policy have to evolve. These will not do.
Note to the government: will you please stop telling us that inflation will fall by such and such month? Just bring it down, and we’ll know. Stop talking it down. And learn from Tunisia.
NEW DELHI, Jan 16 (Reuters) - India's food minister, a key ally of the ruling Congress party, made an apparent jibe at Congress scion Rahul Gandhi on Sunday, after the powerful son of party chief Sonia Gandhi blamed coalition politics for rapid inflation.
India is battling the highest inflation of any major Asian economy, and spiralling food and fuel prices have damaged voter confidence in the Congress-led government and highlighted stresses in the multi-party coalition.
Food and agriculture minister Sharad Pawar shrugged off Gandhi's remarks, Business Standard reported on Sunday, as opposition parties attacked the government for a 4.5 percent rise in petrol prices imposed overnight by state-run fuel retailers.
"The decisions regarding price rises are taken collectively. The prime minister, his economic adviser, the finance minister, the home minister, myself and the planning commission's deputy chairman take periodic reviews," Pawar was quoted as saying.
“Honesty and politics are contradictory terms. The Country’s standard method of meeting its debt obligations is inflation. It pays off with engraved paper.”
“Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.”
Goldman Sachs has issued a short-term alert on China and India as inflation rears its ugly head, advising clients to rotate into Wall Street and Old World bourses as a safer bet over coming months.
Some analysts say Brazil and India need to address public debt concerns sooner rather than later. Then, there’s the overriding concern that too much excitement around emerging markets could lead to a bubble.
Well, India is poised for slowdown after record spending by politicians. The economic growth fueled by foreign funds & NRI money is now cooling down.
Deficit = Tax collected – Total expenditure by govt.
In coming months, the crowding out effect will reduce the private consumption and investment due to increase in government spending
The current deficit is caused by multi billion scams & fourfold rise in govt. employee’s salary. Off-course election commission can’t object on salary hike of voters. Yep, we can’t ignore the subsidies & stimulus packages for special interest groups. In short, none of these factors can be rolled back, so the slowdown is inevitable. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12212929
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/India-loses-out-to-other-Bric-mkts-finds-survey/739211/ “Country positioning remains broadly unchanged from December. Major overweights remain Russia (+50%), Brazil (+30%) and Turkey (+25%). The big underweights are Malaysia (-55%), S Africa (-40%) and India (-35%).”
To finance the expenditure made by out congress, Montu was chasing NRI but refused to accept it. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/news/India-not-after-NRIs-money-Montek-tells-diaspora-/articleshow/7247580.cms
Its circle of life for economics across large countries. We are just reaching the top point. I think India will crash fast and recover fast. Our cycles are narrow and volatile, which is characteristic of growing economies.
Most folks in world blame US for lot of things. But most folks forget that US is very dynamic and open compared to most emerging markets.
34 comments:
Housing prices may dip in Mumbai; rise in NCR this yr: Crisil
NEW DELHI: Residential property prices in Mumbai are likely to fall by 10 per cent this year, but rise marginally in the NCR, a Crisil study said.
"We expect prices in Mumbai to decline by 8-10 per cent in 2011. In NCR, prices will move up marginally because of relatively better affordability," Crisil said.
While falling demand and rising interest rates are likely to bring down prices of residential properties in Mumbai, deep pockets of residents of national capital region may push up the rates marginally, it said.
Over 2010, the housing prices escalated up to 43 per cent in some pockets of Mumbai, while prices in NCR went up only by 6 per cent.
Looks like things have gone crazy !!!
A crore and more
With real estate prices in the city escalating like crazy, lakhs is no longer the new lingo but it is all about crores these days. Buyers feel they are being priced out of the city and pushed northwards towards the outer edge
"I bought this apartment just eight months ago. The apartment is 700 sq.ft but I had to shell out almost my entire savings to buy this place," says Rachit Vyas.
They paid Rs 70 lakh for the 700 sq.ft one-bedroom flat. That too will become a pipe dream for many middle-class people. Realtors say soaring property prices mean the tiniest of places may cost over one crore rupees in a few years' time.
Rajesh Buhecha, a Borivali resident who bought a one-bedroom flat recently in Borivali, warned, "Prices will soar beyond, our reach. After a few years, it will be impossible to find anything in less than a crore in Mumbai." Already, many who want to buy a dream home in Mumbai say they have been priced out of the city.
A senior media professional, who worked half his life abroad and earned in dollars says he still doesn't have enough to buy a two-bedroom flat of his choice in places such as Bandra (W), Juhu or South Mumbai.
He cannot move beyond Juhu. So, he has no choice but to keep staying in rented apartments. Even couples with two salaries are finding it hard to take a loan and buy property, which is within their budget.
Fuelled by abundant liquidity, Indian stocks have been trading for more than a year on a price/earnings ratio well above their long-term average figure for forward earnings of 13.8 times. Even after the latest correction, the figure is around 16. The figure for the MSCI emerging market index is 12 and for the developed world around 12.5. On a price/book ratio, Indian shares don’t look that expensive in historic terms but are still pricey compared with EM peers – at 2.7 times versus 1.8 times.
So, even without allowing for possible shocks from the rest of the world – and India, as a big oil importer, is particularly exposed to rising oil prices – Indian equities may have further to fall by 30%.
>>>speaking of money...in ahmedabad, you can buy 50 to 100 Lac worth of fake currency for 10 Lac.
If builders are charging 1C for 20L flat, why not pay 80L cash component in fake currency. Doodh ka doodh aur Paani ka paani!!
Looks like party is really getting over for Sensex/Nifty. Another 30% drops would be there in the next month or so. It was way overinflated.
Pranab M. has no choice but to raise rates aggressively. Otherwise, India will be like Tunisia where people are on the streets due to high food prices.
High rates means Sensex down and RE really down.
LOL another scam...
The Shocking State of India's Real Estate Market
Last month, I called the Taj Hotel chain, inquiring about the monthly rent for a tiny, 650-square-foot studio in a nice, corporate service building in the southern part of Mumbai. After reaching the booking agent, I was casually informed that the rate would be 4.5lacs per month, or 450,000 rupees -- or just over $10,000 per month.
She then asked me whether I was interested.
I was speechless. In a country where the average GDP is just more than $3,000 per year, how can an organization justify charging 3.3 times per capita GDP in a single month for one tiny studio apartment? That's analogous to a New York City studio apartment going for about $155,000 per month. Even in the most opulent buildings in the fanciest part of town, roughly zero people would pay that. Yet in India, they can and do.
When you spend time reflecting on this, you realize very quickly why so many Indians live in extreme poverty. Apartments in Taj Hotels are obviously an extreme example, but, in general, housing capacity in select cities runs extremely thin. This reality is only exacerbated by the vast canyons between those in India who "have" and those who "have not."
Tata to do a Nano in urban housing in Gujarat
Tata Housing, Tata group's real estate wing, has signed an MoU worth Rs1,000 crore with the Gujarat government for building townships in the state.
The unique thing about these townships will be that they will also offer houses priced at less than Rs10 lakh a unit.
But the company is yet to acquire land for the townships it plans to build. "We have been looking for land in the state," said Brotin Banerjee, MD & CEO of Tata Housing Development Co Ltd. "We will acquire the land on our own or in public-private partnership but we want 30 to 50 acres, preferably near Ahmedabad."
The company has been looking for land in Gujarat for its township project since long. "Landowners' demand for payment in cash (at least in part) is one of the major hurdles for us in buying land in Gujarat," he said. "This problem is not limited only to Gujarat; it is there everywhere in the country. Now, our hopes are pinned on land from either the state government or some private party."
I think Mr. Modi should be the PM of the country and do the good things he is doing in Gujarat for the whole country.
I feel that there is just too much money in the market post the international QE that all major central banks did after the 2008 crash, and there is no better place to launder it than real estate for the people who get the most money, I think such prices are here to stay for sometime.
Just like some decades ago the middle class got phased out of the main Mumbai city, today they are getting phased out of the suburbs and are being pushed out further.
If this does not end soon, then it will be new normal for our kids just like it was normal for us to think that main Mumbai residential areas ain't for us.
Give it 3 years and the house of cards will come crashing down. Now there is no guarantee if black money/fake money is floating around, in that case, its best to rent and short the heck out off the re stocks.
I have a 6 ft x 6 ft toilet room to sell in South Mumbai for 10 crores. Any takers...
Anon above,
I'll buy it or I've another friend who whould be interested. His name is Montek Singh. We've created this mess and will buy it from taxpayers money.
Pranab Mukherjee
Is India next Tunisia???
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/9361546.stm
The gov’t of Tunisia has just announced a State of Emergency, probably meaning things are going to get ugly since protesters show no signs of backing down. Among the buildings attacked by rioters was the country’s central bank. Houses of relatives of government officials who have enriched themselves at the country’s expense have reportedly been looted.
Now the same uprising is happening in Jordan.
Global food chain stretched to the limit
Soaring prices spark fears of social unrest in developing world
“We are entering a danger territory,” Abdolreza Abbassian, chief economist at the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said last week.
The U.N.’s fear is that the latest run-up in food prices could spark a repeat of the deadly food riots that broke out in 2008 in Haiti, Kenya and Somalia. That price spike was relatively short-lived. But Abbassian said the latest surge in food stuffs may be more sustained.
Hey guys, India is different. Scams, bomb blasts, corruption, poverty are forgotten in a day or two. People move on with their life and focus on survival, that is the spirit of India that no other nation has.
Also India is super power in becoming. We have youngest, brightest and large population in the world. Rest of the world is entering stagnation and saturation level.
Pls do not compare India with Haiti, Kenya, Somalia, Pakistan, China or America. We are much above all.
Jai Bharat mata (pita kaun hai?)
Why current scenario is different?
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS.
Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo,
is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-07/default-swaps-tumbling-as-subbarao-tackles-housing-bubble-india-credit.html
Vulture.
Why current scenario is different?
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS.
Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo,
is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-07/default-swaps-tumbling-as-subbarao-tackles-housing-bubble-india-credit.html
Vulture.
Why current scenario is different?
Lot of peoples are still searching reasons for coming RE downturn.
In 2008-09, there was a global meltdown & media was full of crashing news. In India, govt. saved the RE lobby with Tax payer’s money. On top of it daku bhola sing became “Bharat Ratna” off-course he is a big donor to party. Due to lack of transparency in India, peoples are unaware of stimulus package rolled out in India. Every one only knows the story of US bailout which was transparent, but there was a bigger bailout happened in India. Today’s rampant inflation & exorbitant RE prices is the nothing but an outcome of Indian bailout.
“On November 14 2008, The Times of India reported that Finance Minister P Chidambaram had assured real estate developers that the government will impress upon banks to accelerate lending to realty, which is facing one of the worst slowdown in recent times. A delegation of builders under the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Association of India (Credai) had met Chidambaram to complain against banks' reluctance to disburse loans to real estate companies.”
Now, Chidambaram is busy behind naxalite to takeover the mines so MNC(friends & relatives have stake in these companies) can start the mining business.
continue...
Anyway, now time has come for govt. bankruptcy. Due to scams & expenditure the govt. deficit has reached all time high & it has forced govt. to take steps else join PIGS.
Due to rising risk, in global financial market the spread is rising & Suboo,
is forced to tighten policy instead of following orders from high command.
“Credit-default swaps tied to the debt of ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation’s second-biggest lender, fell 10 basis points last week to 189, the lowest since Oct. 15, CMA data show. The yield on 10-year government bonds slid 13 basis points to 7.99 percent, the biggest decline since May, after the Reserve Bank of India required lenders to set aside more capital against housing loans.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-07/default-swaps-tumbling-as-subbarao-tackles-housing-bubble-india-credit.html
Vulture.
check www.patrick.net which has excellent analysis of Real Estate bubble.
Tax Fraud by the Builders?
In 2008-09 recession, to encourage the builders to complete the projects, govt granted a 30% income tax exemption on all projects that will finish before Mar-2011. As usual babu lefts flaws in the rule.
As the RE projects span multiple years, builders use %completion method to report the income on financial statements. Once project completes 30% , they can report income & profit proportional to % of completion. The tax base is calculated based on cash received during the financial year. In order to rip the benefits of tax exemption, the builders changed the payment schedule instead of completing the projects.
As per the accelerated payment schedule, buyer needs to pay 80% amount on completion of final(last floor) slab work.
Today most of the projects have just completed the final slab work & buyers has paid 80% amount. So on one side builders are using buyer’s money without delivery & other side ripping the tax benefits.
If govt. wants to do anything at all, they should demand the municipal corporation’s completion certificate from all who are claiming the tax exemption. Also the accounting board should address the issue of measurement of %completion.
Vulture.
What I find interesting is that these protests and the subsequent regime change in Tunisia (and potentially in Algeria and Jordan — though they don’t look so serious right now), are not because of human rights violations or fundamentalists taking over the country. In fact, there is nothing ‘Islamic’ about the protests in the three countries.
The culprit is simple economics — and its survival implications.
When prices go out of control, governments feel the pressure. But the inflation rate is 6.1% in Jordan, 3.5% in Tunisia, 5.7% in Algeria. These rates seem aspirational for India, where price rises are in double digits.
Inflation, as we all know, is religion-agnostic. In post Cultural Revolution secular China, with Buddhism, Taoism, and Confucianism as the dominant religions, it stands at 5.1%. In the Hindu-dominated secular India, the inflation rate hit 8.4%, with consumer price inflation at a high 12%.
But there’s a difference between the Arab nations and Chindia. In the former, the fire of inflation has all but burnt the establishment. As far as the world’s two fastest-growing economies are concerned, the revolutions and regime changes will be delayed. In China, because of a strong military. In India, because of elections.
Inflation has become the biggest enemy of a perplexed global establishment. The Indian government will need to look beyond the archaic banning of exports, restrictions on sale and throwing a corrupt IT department to raid traders. Our policymakers seem to have forgotten that India is now a trillion-dollar economy, and tools of economic policy have to evolve. These will not do.
Note to the government: will you please stop telling us that inflation will fall by such and such month? Just bring it down, and we’ll know. Stop talking it down. And learn from Tunisia.
NEW DELHI, Jan 16 (Reuters) - India's food minister, a key ally of the ruling Congress party, made an apparent jibe at Congress scion Rahul Gandhi on Sunday, after the powerful son of party chief Sonia Gandhi blamed coalition politics for rapid inflation.
India is battling the highest inflation of any major Asian economy, and spiralling food and fuel prices have damaged voter confidence in the Congress-led government and highlighted stresses in the multi-party coalition.
Food and agriculture minister Sharad Pawar shrugged off Gandhi's remarks, Business Standard reported on Sunday, as opposition parties attacked the government for a 4.5 percent rise in petrol prices imposed overnight by state-run fuel retailers.
"The decisions regarding price rises are taken collectively. The prime minister, his economic adviser, the finance minister, the home minister, myself and the planning commission's deputy chairman take periodic reviews," Pawar was quoted as saying.
“Honesty and politics are contradictory terms. The Country’s standard method of meeting its debt obligations is inflation. It pays off with engraved paper.”
~Frank Chodorov
“Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of a day; but a series of oppressions, begun at a distinguished period, and pursued unalterably through every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery.”
-Thomas Jefferson
Hope this help the cause
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/banking/owed-rs6000-crore-banks-cut-off-funds-to-mumbai-builders/articleshow/7309467.cms
Goldman Sachs shuns the BRICs for Wall Street
Goldman Sachs has issued a short-term alert on China and India as inflation rears its ugly head, advising clients to rotate into Wall Street and Old World bourses as a safer bet over coming months.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8265175/Goldman-Sachs-shuns-the-BRICs-for-Wall-Street.html
Dark Clouds On The Horizon For BRIC Markets
Some analysts say Brazil and India need to address public debt concerns sooner rather than later. Then, there’s the overriding concern that too much excitement around emerging markets could lead to a bubble.
http://www.emii.com/Articles/2750843/Capital-Markets/Capital-Markets-Articles/Dark-Clouds-On-The-Horizon-For-BRIC-Markets.aspx
http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2010/12/03/f_chanos_china_bubble.cnnmoney/
Interesting perspective on myth of China's building boom by Chanos
Economic Slowdown by Politicians ……
Well, India is poised for slowdown after record spending by politicians.
The economic growth fueled by foreign funds & NRI money is now cooling
down.
Deficit = Tax collected – Total expenditure by govt.
In coming months, the crowding out effect will reduce the private
consumption and investment due to increase in government spending
The current deficit is caused by multi billion scams & fourfold rise in govt. employee’s salary. Off-course election commission can’t object on salary hike of voters. Yep, we can’t ignore the subsidies & stimulus packages for special interest groups.
In short, none of these factors can be rolled back, so the slowdown is inevitable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12212929
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/India-loses-out-to-other-Bric-mkts-finds-survey/739211/
“Country positioning remains broadly unchanged from December. Major overweights remain Russia (+50%), Brazil (+30%) and Turkey (+25%). The big underweights are Malaysia (-55%), S Africa (-40%) and India (-35%).”
To finance the expenditure made by out congress, Montu was chasing NRI but refused to accept it.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/nri/news/India-not-after-NRIs-money-Montek-tells-diaspora-/articleshow/7247580.cms
Vulture.
Anon 4:29 PM. Valid points.
This is little dated, so adjust time a little.
The Ying Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions
Its circle of life for economics across large countries. We are just reaching the top point. I think India will crash fast and recover fast. Our cycles are narrow and volatile, which is characteristic of growing economies.
Most folks in world blame US for lot of things. But most folks forget that US is very dynamic and open compared to most emerging markets.
Thanks for sharing the information it helps a lot. If your searching for Open plots and Residential plots for sale in Loyapally, Hyderabad. JJ Infra is the No.1 Real estate company for Investments
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