Let me provide you with the most obvious evidence to the contrary in this post.
Many new apartment complexes in the outskirts of Bangalore are sold with what's called the "B" Katha. This includes most of the Sobha apartments in the Bellandur belt (which is where I live). Only a couple of apartments in this belt have the "A" Katha.
Now these are apartments where a 3 Bedroom apartment sells for Rs. 1.1 Cr - 1.3 Cr and a 4 BR apartment sells for Rs.1.7 Cr to Rs.2 Cr. Most major banks provide loans for these properties.
I wanted to find out the difference between the two kathas and what it means.
A "katha" literally means an "extract". All it tells is, there's an entry for this land in the BBMP office and the katha is proof of that. The BBMP keeps two sets of registers - the "A" register for legal land (land legally approved by the Government for residential purposes) and the "B" register to keep track of all the "revenue land" (land not intended for residential purposes). It was created as a means to keep track of all buildings constructed on illegal land. Somewhere down the line, BBMP decided to issue an extract of this illegal register so that property taxes can be collected against these properties.
I have read all the comments to the blog posts, I am no fan of big Government myself, not to the extent of DhiMan :), but things like this prove his argument. It's clear that there is illegal construction done on un-approved land. There is no reason the Government should bless this in any which way. If anything, they should be levying heavy fines for providing civic amenities. Instead, they start issuing a "Katha", which confuses the lay-buyer.
The developers, of course, take this as a go-ahead to go berserk on constructing illegal multi crore properties on such illegal lands. What people believe is that the "B Katha" is some proof that this is a valid property. On the contrary, the "B Katha" is a Government issued proof that your property is built on illegal land. Look no further.
The BBMP commissioner Siddaiah recently created a major ruckus by declaring B Katha is a bogus. This kick started a whole range of discussion around the "B Katha" and puts the major builders in a spot. This ruckus led to "betterment charges to give permanent Katha"
"As the Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) gears up to implement betterment charges, citizens may heave a sigh of relief as ‘B’ khata owners can now get a permanent title deed, ‘A’ khata, by paying the same.
However, senior BBMP officials have placed a rider by stating that ‘A’ khata alone cannot be considered as regularising the property. “Even if they pay the betterment charges and get their ‘B’ khata converted into ‘A’ khata, property owners will still have to get their land regularised under Akrama-Sakrama,” informed a Palike official."
Say what?
You can now take an illegal "B Katha" and get it converted to an "A Katha" - but it's still illegal. i.e, the Government has now taken an obviously clear indicator that this property is illegal (B Katha) and have confused the legal document (A Katha). Earlier, if you owned a "A Katha", that was an indication that it was a clear property. Now, if you own a "A Katha", it "may be" clear.
Nice.
But then, isn't there an exit through the "Akrama-Sakrama"?
According to
"AS PER THE AMENDMENT TO THE KTCP ACT FOR REGULARISATION, 31-12-2008 WAS THE LAST DAY AND ALL THE CONSTRUCTIONS, ILLEGAL BUILDINGS, UNAUTHORISED LAYOUTS, REVENUE SITES ETC FORMED OR CONSTRUCTED BEFORE 31-12-2008 IS ELIGIBLE FOR REGULARISATION."
Ah, so it's time bound.
But has even this been implemented? Not quite. It was announced in 2007, but it still hasn't been made legal by the Government yet.
In the meantime, all builders use this legal mess to forge ahead in the construction of illegal property hoping that some day all of this mess would be regularized.
Till that happens, your Rs.1.5 Cr pent-house from the big name developer that has a "B" katha - remains illegal; and you even have a Government issued document to prove it.
88 comments:
Wow, San - an example of how government is actually the culprit in exacerbating this mess!
Let me ask you this: why don't you starve the beast?
Do you really have to buy a flat - can't you rent until the sheer weight of this economic madness collapses it?
All my ranting against big government is really an attempt at understanding what to do about it - and the key is that the system is promulgated by participating in it.
Merely not participating is therefore sufficient to prick the bubble and bring back sanity.
....whether you “really own” land when the government levies a “tax” on the property.
Perhaps in the perfect, idealistic, anarcho-capitalistic, Rothbardian utopia you have in mind, that might be a form of slavery, unfortunately such pure “market driven” societies don’t exist anywhere on the planet (indeed they have not existed anywhere in history).
Under the Islamic Sharia you own the land and all that it produces, further there are no property taxes in the Islamic sharia, you pay no tax on your property in any form.
Also, under the Sharia laws you do not pay any income tax/vat tax/service tax etc.
People in the Middle east do not pay any income or property tax even today.(even NRI's in the gulf pay no income tax)
@Anon
"Huge buying demand exists in real estate market"
And the same article says : The buyer today is from the middle-income group, with most quoting an optimum range of Rs 20 to 60 lakh for a unit.
I will argue that demand for BMW cars in India is 1 Lakh per month - which is approx what Maruti sells every month. Each one of those Maruti buyers would like to buy a BMW if the could afford it. In fact you can extend it to say that there are 1.2 billion people in India who all want to own an IPL team, party on their private yatch with beauty queens and what not. If wishes were horses...
Thanks for educating us: I had no idea that Khata B in Bangalore actually represented illegal land!
Can you please point out some localities in Bangalore that have "clean" land (i.e. khata A etc.)
@Samix
"Under the Islamic Sharia you own the land and all that it produces, further there are no property taxes in the Islamic sharia, you pay no tax on your property in any form."
If you seriously think your property rights are more secure (i.e. you better "own" your property) in territories ruled with Islamic Sharia (where they levy no property tax) to Western countries (where they do levy property tax), I have a large tract of fertile oasis in the middle of Algeria that I would love to sell you for a song.
Perhaps in the perfect, idealistic, anarcho-capitalistic, Rothbardian utopia you have in mind, that might be a form of slavery, unfortunately such pure “market driven” societies don’t exist anywhere on the planet (indeed they have not existed anywhere in history).
Au contraire, my friend. Precisely such societies existed in earlier periods in India, China and elsewhere. This is what gave rise to the land ownership fascination that we see so deeply ingrained in people's psyche.
Unfortunately and unbeknownst to the poor landowners, the law was changed covertly to convert allodial holdings to fee-simple holdings.
This was initiated by the British in India, and by other governments elsewhere in the world, thus usurping the land from individual owners and transferring ultimate ownership to the state.
All this happened under the guise of a small tax in exchange for "services".
Thus, today you don't own land, you own the right-to-use for that land. When you sell your land, you simply sell that right to someone else. But the real asset, the land - is never yours. This is actually quite explicit in relevant law.
Understand that I cannot tax or charge fees on property that truly belongs to you - I can only levy taxes and fees on what really belongs to me but is temporarily in your possession.
That is the catch, my dear anonymous friend. The solution is simple actually - as I mentioned earlier. Participation is promulgation. Don't participate.
If you seriously think your property rights are more secure (i.e. you better "own" your property) in territories ruled with Islamic Sharia (where they levy no property tax) to Western countries (where they do levy property tax), I have a large tract of fertile oasis in the middle of Algeria that I would love to sell you for a song.
There is no security under islamic sharia law, fair enough. But your error is in assuming that there is some security in the western system; but that is equally untrue.
Eminent domain laws can make a mockery of your property "rights" in a fraction of a second and you know that.
The only difference between sharia law and western law is the process by which you forfeit what is yours. In one case you get severed appendages, in the other you get projectile wounds. (Exaggerating, of course.)
As the Americans would say - same difference.
The only difference between sharia law and western law is the process by which you forfeit what is yours
Dhiman allow me to disagree, the Sharia law guarantees property rights to the individual, not a way to forfeit stuff to the government.
If the ruler of the land forcibly takes the land or any other asset away, then the problem is with the ruler not the law!
By the way do you know that paper money and legal tender is also prohibited under the Islamic sharia, the fact that Muslim countries today do use paper money and implement legal tender does not change the basics of the Sharia Islamic law.
Pause or is the End for the India Story ?
http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-outlook-for-indian-economy-in-2012-and-2013-2011-12
Knowing what we know historically about this sewer-state, I think it is safe to predict that no matter what happens prices across all asset classes (food, fuel, rents, RE, iPhones, etc.) will continue to be at extremely high levels squeezing the life blood out of the common man.
@Pawan - "I will argue that demand for BMW cars in India is 1 Lakh per month - which is approx what Maruti sells every month."
Well put. The journalists in the Economic Times seem to lack an understanding of econ 101. Supply/Demand curves have price as an axis. Demand yes, but at what price? Certainly not at current prices.
@Dhiman
Taxes are needed for public goods (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_good). Besides public goods, they are also needed to fund projects which are not correctly priced by the markets. Take for example, the Bangalore metro. It may be never be profitable, but it delivers huge gains in terms of reduced pollution, gains in productivity, etc. Since these are not (yet?) priced by the market, and gestation period could be in decades, hence private investors may never come forward.
Besides, property taxes are progressive. Presumably the rich own more properties in nicer areas and hence are taxed more. It also discourages unproductive land holdings.
@Polt
"Besides public goods, they are also needed to fund projects which are not correctly priced by the markets. Take for example, the Bangalore metro. It may be never be profitable, but it delivers huge gains in terms of reduced pollution, gains in productivity, etc. Since these are not (yet?) priced by the market, and gestation period could be in decades, hence private investors may never come forward.
Besides, property taxes are progressive. "
Excellent Economics 101 observation, although hardly likely to convince "DhiMan", who seems to be living in a rarified Rothbardian cuckooland.
And this coming from a staunch anti-government type myself.
Re: goods for the public good.
1. Why should there be a monopoly on the supply of these goods?
2. Why should government be the chosen supplier?
3. Why shouldn't there be private competition to provide these?
4. Ultimately, providing anything, even a public good, cannot be loss making, even for a government. After all somebody pays; government produces nothing, hence it must rob Peter to pay Paul, even if it is a public good that Peter and Paul can both enjoy. The question is what gives anyone the right to rob others to provide a public good at a loss?
Having a free market implies that even if a public good is the most desirable thing in the universe, if it cannot be provided without making a loss, it must be foregone.
So if the metro isn't a profitable project, government will rob me to make sure that some illiterate dumbass rides it. I won't be able to ride it because of the stench of people defecating on the tracks, but I will be paying through the nose via taxation to make sure that the public good is readily available to those that consider it perfume.
Please, maybe I'm in Rothbardian cuckooland, but thank you very much, that is preferable to the self-defeating, eventually-bankrupting socialist claptrap about public good that passes for economic theory these days.
And this coming from a staunch anti-government type myself.
Sorry buddy, no self respecting anti-statist will ever support property taxes, much less progressive ones - you are no staunch anti-government type at all my friend.
That, or you don't really know what anti-government means.
Samix: Dhiman allow me to disagree, the Sharia law guarantees property rights to the individual, not a way to forfeit stuff to the government.
Fair enough. I don't claim to know much about sharia law, so what I said was rather facetious.
If the ruler of the land forcibly takes the land or any other asset away, then the problem is with the ruler not the law!
Ah, therein lies the rub with all law and government, dear friend.
Inevitably, the ruler one day proclaims, "I am the Law!".
You think this isn't true for democracies? Heck, democratic bodies regularly make laws - like suddenly confiscating private property because it is in the "public good".
The law may be perfect, but its application is never so; hence the missing appendages and perforated torsos.
@Dhiman,
You sound a lot like Peter Schiff. Are you following too much of him lately?
Besides public goods, they are also needed to fund projects which are not correctly priced by the markets. Take for example, the Bangalore metro. It may be never be profitable, but it delivers huge gains in terms of reduced pollution, gains in productivity, etc.
At the risk of repeating myself, if it is never going to be profitable, no sane business will ever touch it with a barge pole regardless of what benefits it purports to provide.
And that is precisely the point - the market has correctly priced it - as a heaping pile of fecal matter because it cannot be run without robbing someone else.
You may argue "public good", but you fail to realize, as do most economists today, that this is but another version of the broken window fallacy.
The problems all ensue because government, in its infinite lack of wisdom, decides that the market has incorrectly priced something when by definition, price is something that is discovered by a market, and thus there is no incorrect market price.
You think that these outrageous real estate prices are incorrect? Sorry buddy, you're wrong. They are absolutely correct, the error is with your perception.
That said, it doesn't also mean that prices will stay at these outrageous levels forever.
However, even those newer, reduced prices will be correct.
And if I am proved wrong, as I well may be, and prices rise still further, then well - those prices will be correct as well.
That's the beauty of the free market.
You sound a lot like Peter Schiff. Are you following too much of him lately?
Not really, no - but as fellow residents of the same Rothbardian cuckooland, we probably have similar views.
:-)
@DhiMan
“Sorry buddy, no self respecting anti-statist will ever support property taxes, much less progressive ones - you are no staunch anti-government type at all my friend.”
This is what I wrote in my earlier post:
“Again, government is a nefarious scam that benefits a powerful elite and their rentier client class. Very few individuals in human history (including yourself) have successfully figured this out.”
Does that sound like the words of a pro-statist to you? Or do you have deliberate selective myopia?
Also, re: property taxes, I thought I had made my position clear in my earlier post:
“Also, while I agree that government involvement in the economy must be kept to the barest of the barest minimum, there are certain areas where coercive monopolies are not a bad idea. Think about water supply, sewerage, roads/highways and land title registration. There would be absolutely chaos if these were left to a free market. Can you choose which water company will supply water to your house? If there are 26 private water companies, will there be 26 water networks below the streets? Ditto for sewerage. It’s not like you can choose a different sewerage company like you can choose a different mobile operator for your iPhone subscription. The logistics involved are vastly different. Also, what about roads and highways? Can you choose between 12 different highways to take you from Bangalore to New Delhi, each one run by a different toll operator? Do you know what the country will look like in such a situation? Finally, what about land title registries? How do you privatize that? What will make someone accept the authority of one private land title registry over other? What if two competing private land title registries register different owners for the same property? Who is “correct”? Who decides? And on what grounds or principles? Do you start to see the problem?”
I think the above also answers your questions such as: “1. Why should there be a monopoly on the supply of these goods? 2. Why should government be the chosen supplier? 3. Why shouldn't there be private competition to provide these?”
You seem to deliberately overlook sections of posts that don’t correspond to your rose-tinted glasses’ worldview. Why is that?
“Not really, no - but as fellow residents of the same Rothbardian cuckooland, we probably have similar views.”
Sorry, but Peter Schiff is not an anarchist. He does support limited government. You on the other hand, are off the deep end. Although I must admit it is quite entertaining to find a Desi subscribing to Rothbardian principles! You are probably in a minority of one. Most Indians I know are hard core socialist-statists. Lol!
Sorry about the selective myopia. Didn't mean to, but what's done is done. Let me see if I can answer you here and now.
First, I don't care about Schiff's views. My views are mine alone, and if I'm harder core than hard core, so be it. Actually all I am is rational, and if a rational, logical argument leads me somewhere, I don't fight it with predefined concepts of right and wrong.
You're right that you wrote that government is a "nefarious scam". And then in the same breath you said, "coercive monopolies are not a bad idea".
To me, that is a contradiction in terms. If a coercive monopoly serves only to "benefit a powerful elite and their rentier client class", then how can it be a good idea only on the basis of smaller size?
Let's take your examples:
1. Water supply - just like electricity supply in Mumbai - there's Tata Power and there's Reliance Power. They use the same infrastructure, leasing it or buying or building it; but eventually the consumer deals with different companies with different values.
Don't let technical difficulty (26 different water pipelines, different logistics) divert your attention from the fact that it can be done. If solutions don't exist today, that could merely be because the sector wasn't allowed free market rein.
Your first argument for coercive monopolies boils down to "there isn't the right technology for this" - well I counter with "necessity is the mother of invention".
2. Sewage. Same as the above. If the market had been given free rein, there would have been the technology.
3. Highways - again, separate the physical highway from the toll and traffic. Let's say I buy a toll subscription from company A, you from company B. Both allow me to use the same highway without paying the toll at the gate. Voila.
That is just one contrived way you could solve it; I see no reason why you couldn't have ten highways from Mumbai to Bangalore, separated by no more than 50 feet, operated by different private companies.
Already look at Mumbai-Pune traffic - there are dozens of operators that provide excellent service with Volvo and Mercedes buses (for barely Rs 250 to Rs. 500) from various points in Pune to various points in Mumbai.
And yet barely 15 years ago all you had was crappy ST Asiad buses for Rs 120 or so that only went from Station to Dadar.
I don't have the answers to how the market will solve technical challenges, but I am confident that it will.
4. Again, you let technical difficulties cloud the real issue. In the US, there are private arbitration courts; why do you think these would not be effective against faulty records? There is already title insurance in the US - provided by private companies. When there is a profit incentive to maintain clear and coherent records, the technical issues will be overcome.
Currently, there isn't an option to these functions of government, because we haven't seen better. So we live with the system.
This does not imply that better is not possible and that the current state of affairs is all that is even possible.
To continue - you seem to want some authority to arbitrate, because you seem to assume that in the absence of authority, presumably provided by a coercive monopoly, there would be utter chaos.
This is the standard mistake that people make when they hear the word "anarchy". Just like "monarchy" means having a one master, anarchy simply means having no master.
Anarchy does not imply chaos. It does not imply blood on the streets because everybody has gone back to being barbaric and uncivilized.
Actually, India is close to anarchy if you think about it - any law can be easily circumvented with a little bribery; thus subverting the power of the overlords (I laugh at the government - it desires to control all but it can't while its minions are for sale, hahaha) but there isn't chaos and blood on the streets.
And thus we refute your second argument - that of the need for authority.
In fact the opposite is true - the more the authority of the government, the more the chaos. Look at all the turmoil in the middle east recently for an example.
Do you remember that old story about King Harishchandra and that dove and eagle? The dove came to the king to ask for protection and the king said yes. Then the eagle came and said that if it were denied its natural prey it would starve - how would that be fair for it?
This story, enunciated in ancient scripture illustrates the rob Peter to pay Paul problem aptly.
Harishchandra solved it by chopping off his own flesh, and then eventually by stepping on the scale himself.
What do we learn from this?
1. The king was in the "protection business".
2. There is no way to favor one set of people without, at the same time, screwing another.
3. The only clear way to solve the problem where everyone wins is by not messing with the natural process - i.e., if Harishchandra had declined to mess in the natural order of things where a predator eats his prey, he'd have saved himself from some hara and thigh-kiri.
4. Harishchandra may have been righteous, but he still had the arrogance of rulers - that his involvement and intervention could fix something that wasn't broken in the first place.
5. Harishchandra had the intelligence to realize the mess he had gotten into, and the decency to realize that only his own sacrifice could solve it. I'll bet he learned his lesson real well that time.
6. No ruler today would choose self sacrifice after creating a mess. But they would certainly create a mess because they would also assume that their involvement and intervention could fix what isn't broken.
7. The best way to fix something is by realizing that it may not be broken in the first place.
Where am I going with this?
I don't know. Just thinking out loud, I guess.
"4. Again, you let technical difficulties cloud the real issue. In the US, there are private arbitration courts; why do you think these would not be effective against faulty records?"
Because these private arbitration courts eventually issue rulings that are.......enforced by the state courts....
If you have two separate private courts that will enforce the execution of a court order, you will need a civil war to sort out who is "correct". Again, as I said, state interference in the economy must be kept to the barest minimum. However, that barest minimum surely includes things such as justice, law enforcement, criminal courts and (with the current status of technology), mass transportation, sewerage, water works, electricity and the like.
Also, it does not always follow that the private sector functions more efficiently than the public sector in CERTAIN FIELDS. Witness for example, the lousy, accident-prone, unpunctual, privatized British Rail with the excellent, efficient, fast, safe and state-owned TGV system in France.
Dhiman, can I ask where you live and what kind work you do (just out of idle curiosity).
"In fact the opposite is true - the more the authority of the government, the more the chaos. Look at all the turmoil in the middle east recently for an example."
Uh...really? The Pharoahs ran an authoritarian unitary state for...um...3000 years, a period that corresponded to political and social stability on a scale that enabled Egyptian society to become one of the most prosperous in the ancient world.
How do you explain that?
Dear Anon,
I anticipated this point - you want authority.
That's why I brought up that Harishchandra story.
To show that authority is also risky business.
What you want is for a conflict to not escalate because the supreme authority (like a supreme court) is the ultimate decider.
But it could make a wrong decision too. And unless it were so deeply rooted in morals that it would consider self sacrifice to uphold justice (hahahaha, don't make me laugh), then it would wrong someone, and that someone would have no recourse whatsoever.
Soon, it would realize that it is unchallenged, and it wouldn't really care about the quality of its decisions, thereby wronging more people.
This is the way authority goes - straight to corruption and decay.
British Rail vs. TGV. One specific example does not make a general truth. I have never even set foot in Europe, but the relevant question is does BR have competition or does it simply not have incentive to provide good service?
No idea about TGV. Do I want to pay heavy taxes for TGV? Perhaps, perhaps not.
I currently shuttle between India and the US, and am an ASIC engineer (design electronic chips).
Uh...really? The Pharoahs ran an authoritarian unitary state for...um...3000 years, a period that corresponded to political and social stability on a scale that enabled Egyptian society to become one of the most prosperous in the ancient world.
How do you explain that?
I don't know, let's ask some Israelites how they felt about it.
We Indians on the other hand, ran a free market type system for over 10,000 years, that produced great art and literature, scripture and language, respect for individuals, animals, and even bugs; no slavery ever - even that Harishchandra story tells us that people were finely tuned to such critical discourse about government.
We did not have an authoritarian government, and we produced the Vedas, Sanskrit, Mathematics and what not, things that you can't produce unless you're really prosperous (your tummy is full, can't philosophize on an empty tummy now, can we?)
How do you feel about that?
"I don't know, let's ask some Israelites how they felt about it."
So, you're now arguing for the historical authenticity for the Book of Exodus? Unbelievable.
"We Indians on the other hand, ran a free market type system for over 10,000 years, that produced great art and literature, scripture and language, respect for individuals, animals, and even bugs; no slavery ever"
You are kidding right? What about the caste system? I guess serving children food in broken bowls and dressing them in rags and forcing them to live on garbage dumps outside town qualifies as "no slavery ever" to you?
Dude, you need to sit for History 101 lessons in a community college when you next go to the US.
Unfreaking believable...
So, you're now arguing for the historical authenticity for the Book of Exodus? Unbelievable.
No, I'm simply saying that Egypt wasn't all nice and fun, and that India isn't all terrible and shit.
Sure, the caste system sucks but it was hardly a part of an ancient India; especially in the time period you brought up - that of Egypt.
Today everything lies in decay, no doubt.
And we're exploring the cause of that.
You and I agree that government does take the lions share of the blame.
We're now arguing "sublantics" (hat tip Harold and Kumar) about what level of government is appropriate.
Allow me to concede that I don't know. I know that you don't know either; we've always lived under authority and must therefore rely on imagination as to what it would be without that authority, and how far could we remove it without descending it into chaos.
If this is not arguing sublantics, i.e., how many angels dance on a pinhead, I don't know what is.
@DhImAn
- I am pushing 40 and I haven't owned a home yet. I lived in Bay Area from 1999 to 2011 without biting that bullet. I saw the crash coming. I see the crash coming in Bangalore as well. But I also have a really pissed off spouse and peer pressure.
- I sold a plot of land (with clear titles ;) ) recently in Bangalore for a significant profit. My asset allocation is haywire right now and cash heavy. I need to diversify. In some sense, I am conning myself saying that I am going re-invest a lot of gains in RE anyway.
If left alone, I would rent for the rest of my life, but life happens. I am seriously thinking of taking a break from this RE madness and give it an year. But once you are so freakin emotionally involved, you get sucked in.
I now understand why smart people in Bay Area fell into the RE mess in 2005/6.
Thanks for educating us: I had no idea that Khata B in Bangalore actually represented illegal land!
Can you please point out some localities in Bangalore that have "clean" land (i.e. khata A etc.)
Anon
I wish I can tell. In the same street, two apartment complexes next to each other. One has A Katha (Sobha Quartz) and one has B Katha (Sobha Jasmine).
Sobha Jasmine is the pricier, premier, shinier apartment.
Go figure.
Land is so fragmented, you can't really tell. Also, you can get a B Katha for many reasons, land issues being one of them. Neither Sobha Jasmine Association nor Sobha will say what's going on.
Sobha, the single most premier publicly traded builder, hasn't released the Rs.5 Crore they collected for the home owners fund to the association when they handed it over.
The association has sued Sobha for this. Sobha has no motivation to apply for proper Katha. The owners have themselves to blame. Who the hell asked them to pay full and move in before they got the Katha?
In short, Sobha has the home owner's association by their balls. They have their money and won't issue them a Katha. The owners are f*cked.
I am coming to the realization that if you want absolutely clear titles, stick to BDA land (not BDA approved land) in Indira Nagar, Koramangala etc. Hire a good lawyer. You will get a small home with 30x40 land.
If you need a great community and swimming pool and tennis court (which I do, for instance), suck it up, look for multiple properties and find one where the legal issues are minimal.
@Dhiman - "And that is precisely the point - the market has correctly priced it - as a heaping pile of fecal matter because it cannot be run without robbing someone else."
No, that is my point. The market is currently unable to price it. Take for example the reduction in carbon emissions due to the metro. If there was some way to figure out how much emissions were reduced, then these credits could be given to the investor who could then sell it on some exchange. With public/quasi-public goods, there is also the free rider problem. In this case the metro also benefits those who do not use the metro due to reduced traffic on road. The investor cannot capture these benefits because the market cannot price them.
The economic efficiency apart, countries without progressive taxes to reduce income inequality will probably have a destructive revolution at some point.
@Polt above:
Revolution is coming to India soon. Enough of nonsense and partying. Time to pay the price.
@dhiman
The only clear way to solve the problem where everyone wins is by not messing with the natural process
well could'nt agree more...
People who argue for authority are essentially looking for a freedon from decision making...
which is nothing but a illusion, whereas acceptance authority/dependence requires the sacrifice of real security ... i.e. enabling oneself to operate in such circumstances and letting/allowing the natural order to emerge... But i guess a devil's pact has it's own undeniable attraction for obvious reasons.
No, that is my point. The market is currently unable to price it. Take for example the reduction in carbon emissions due to the metro.
On the contrary, the market has priced it and returned a verdict of "not worth it".
Carbon emissions - if this were such a controversy free benefit, then you wouldn't need to have governments forcing it down your throat, but I really don't want to get into an argument about that.
The more important thing is that you seem to believe that a government has the wisdom and foresight to see decades into the future and know what is good for us; when the very best of people at other fields cannot say with certainty what is good for themselves, much less others.
Thus, you ascribe to a body made up of mostly mediocre men such supernatural power that each of those people, individually can not and do not possess.
So then, just by mere virtue of it becoming a collective body, it gets this amazing wisdom and insight and can second guess a free market?
Well, you know what I'm going to say next.
That government obviously does not have this wisdom and foresight, and is thus operating on the basis of some arbitrary belief, and subverting the natural market process by its arrogance that its involvement and intervention will improve matters.
I already recounted Harishchandra's story to show you how that arrogance turns out. Government will make tax paying schmucks pay for the supposed benefit of carbon emissions control.
Well, if it was such a great thing, and if the government had the public good so dear to its heart, then why doesn't it engage in some sort of self sacrifice - let the politicians pay out of their own pocket for any of these boondoggles.
Come on, we all know that they have tens of thousands of crores of black money, not like they can't afford it.
San: - I am pushing 40 and I haven't owned a home yet. I lived in Bay Area from 1999 to 2011 without biting that bullet. I saw the crash coming. I see the crash coming in Bangalore as well. But I also have a really pissed off spouse and peer pressure.
Your story sounds exactly like mine. In the bay area since 1998, never bought real estate there, lived through the dot com crash and the subsequent real estate crash; I too see the crash coming in India, though not necessarily in rupee terms.
I don't purport to have the capability to give advice, but why don't you just hang on for a year or so more? Give yourself a deadline, and decide that if by that time prices correct, great, otherwise you'll bite the bullet.
That way, you buy time with your pissed spouse (my wife is also mad at me because of my views so I feel your pain) and also have a closed ended plan.
You can ignore peer pressure - your friends don't pay for your traffic tickets, or for your stock losses; i.e., they merely apply pressure without taking any liability if things go awry. Who cares for those that can't put their wallets where their mouth is?
I'd gladly go buy a house right now if one of my "peers" backed me up with a put (right to sell at a pre-determined price). If anybody has the balls to do that, I'll send you my contact info.
In short, to all those who say that RE must always go up; let's put some money on that. Say you think RE will go up at least 20% in the next two years.
Sell me a put at 10% over market price today, maturing in 2 years. Got the testicular fortitude to do that?
@Dhiman - "The more important thing is that you seem to believe that a government has the wisdom and foresight to see decades into the future and know what is good for us;"
I am not saying this. I am saying the market is inefficient and will not price certain things correctly. (I guess we will have to agree to disagree here). In such cases, the govt has to step in and act as an investor, flawed though it may be.
Actually, India is close to anarchy if you think about it - any law can be easily circumvented with a little bribery; thus subverting the power of the overlords (I laugh at the government - it desires to control all but it can't while its minions are for sale, hahaha) but there isn't chaos and blood on the streets.
@Dhiman
Actually it's the rich, politically connected and the landlords who can abuse power at will, the poor still fear the might of the state. This is not anarchy, it's feudalism.
As far as anarchy goes, the government mortally fears it, which is why most of the British laws still exist because the Indian govt does not trust a majority of Indians. Free speech is for namesake only.
Take away the cops for a week and the poor people will butcher the rich. I am beginning to sound like a leftist but that's the reality.
@All
I was recently reading "The Red Sun - travels in the Naxal country" by Sudip Chakravarty. A must read for every Indian, I had no idea about the reality that haunts the rest of India or how deep the maoists have penetrated etc. It seems they are just waiting in the wings for some kind of economic chaos to sweep through India to bolster their presence in the cities, and they have 40 years of training and discipline behind them, no other non-state party comes even close. Scary stuff.
The Return Of The Pink Slip Blues:
http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?279040
October IIP negative 5.1 percent:
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/october-iip-shocks-dips-5-1-percent-153889.html
I don't purport to have the capability to give advice, but why don't you just hang on for a year or so more? Give yourself a deadline, and decide that if by that time prices correct, great, otherwise you'll bite the bullet.
That way, you buy time with your pissed spouse (my wife is also mad at me because of my views so I feel your pain) and also have a closed ended plan.
You can ignore peer pressure - your friends don't pay for your traffic tickets, or for your stock losses; i.e., they merely apply pressure without taking any liability if things go awry. Who cares for those that can't put their wallets where their mouth is?
Yeah, I hear you. I have been buying time from the wife not to buy anything in India from 2008 :(, so I have used up that time. Worse, had I bought the same property in 2008, I would have saved a bunch of money (but the chances are I would have bought something with crappy papers).
I am going to wait - but if I do find something we like with clear titles, that's going to be hard to resist :(.
Question to all nri's who come to this forum. How about move to 2nd tier city? One can build really nice place there for almost half or less price.
Question to all nri's who come to this forum. How about move to 2nd tier city? One can build really nice place there for almost half or less price.
October IIP negative 5.1 percent:
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/october-iip-shocks-dips-5-1-percent-153889.html
In 2008, India was relatively unaffected by the crisis in the West. One of the reasons given for this was the large domestic consumption as a percentage of GDP.
The reverse might hold true as well this time. I.e., even if the world recovers, we may not because our domestic economy is weak.
@Dhiman,
You are basing all your analysis as a function of fixed variables say f(a,b,c,d) only which you are able to comprahend. As soon as you make it f(a,b,c,d,p) (p-practicality, p - probability etc) you will see the shift in the outcome.
@Dhiman,
You are basing all your analysis as a function of fixed variables say f(a,b,c,d) only which you are able to comprahend. As soon as you make it f(a,b,c,d,p) (p-practicality, p - probability etc) you will see the shift in the outcome.
US NRIs don't consider 2nd tier cities unless they have roots there. Most NRIs have a dual purpose, Investment and usage if investment goes stagnant. I don't know why there are no monthly rental apartments in mumbai that a NRI can rent for 1 or 2 months while visiting India. With space at premium, the visitor and the visitee both get breathing room if monthly rentals were readly available, even at a premium.
You are basing all your analysis as a function of fixed variables say f(a,b,c,d) only which you are able to comprahend. As soon as you make it f(a,b,c,d,p) (p-practicality, p - probability etc) you will see the shift in the outcome.
I don't follow. What specific variables are missing?
What outcome am I trying to compute? That RE will crash? A date for this?
I have said many times, RE prices may or may not crash in nominal terms. In real terms, they are already on a significant downslope.
This is fact, an observation. Not trying to second guess reality here.
Please let me know what I'm missing. If you and others succeed in convincing me (and I am rational, so I'll go wherever logic leads me), my pissed off spouse will be extremely grateful to you.
Dhiman,
Take the example of a metro. You do not want to pay taxes for someone enjoying a free ride. Fair enough. But why don't you look at what couldnot happen. Govts built metro and because of that greenhouse gases reduced and may be stopped a cyclone from happening in which you might been caught. And because Govt stopped the cyclone from happening it was able to save your property and additional taxes which would have payed for the relief efforts. But yes, no one can validate these kind of things and definitely not a private investor looking for profit. Thats my point. We always comprahend what we know/see/experienced and not what we didn't/ don't. And that additional variable can change the entire outcome of the analysis.
The only clear way to solve the problem where everyone wins is by not messing with the natural process - i.e., if Harishchandra had declined to mess in the natural order of things where a predator eats his prey, he'd have saved himself from some hara and thigh-kiri.
You see you are contradicting here. There is no way in nature everyone can win. There had to be some one in this story who had to lose. If HarishChandra hadn't interfered, instead of him, the dove would have lost. Unforunately, in nature everything is a pyramid structure from food chain to distribution of wealth. Your free market competation cannot fix the bottom of the pyramid. But yes, what it can do unlike in socialism is it can make the people in the bottom feel they too can make to the top and a few will. Thats all nothing more.
Take another example of your competing doctors from another thread. In US, healthcare is private, but yet it is unaffordable to all even with all the competation.
Yes, with competation logically it should come down, but in a case the insurers collaborate with pharma companies to keep the healthcare costs high so people should go take insurance, would it come down? If you add that one more variable p-practicality the entire outcome completely differs.
San,
One more thing about checking documents in Bangalore: Several builders have been pulled up for constructing on 'Raja Kaluve', or natural water channels. This can be a real nightmare to deal with - One case I know is of a leading builder who sold his villa project, parts of which were built on a Raja Kaluve. Last I heard the residents were left holding the bag.
Also, interesting is the builder hope of US NRI's coming in to 'save' real estate due to rising $ value - I doubt this will happen, since most of them have had a ringside seat to a housing collapse.
'save'
This is a great idea....are there any short term (say 1-3 months) fully furnished flats/apartments for rent in Mumbai?
where can I get info? is there a website?
One earthquake will set it straight.
I pray it never happens though.
A single life is worth more than all the money in the world.
And because Govt stopped the cyclone from happening it was able to save your property and additional taxes which would have payed for the relief efforts.
You see how you ascribe to the government these supernatural powers of omniscience and omnipotence?
Take that away, view government as fallible and foolish and corrupt (this is reality) and rethink your argument. Would you want to pay your blood and sweat earnings to a foolish and corrupt entity to finance something that may even be in the public good?
One time in a thousand, perhaps they'll do something good; but the remainder of the times, they'll simply squander your money on the latest fashionable foible - in your example global warming.
You see you are contradicting here. There is no way in nature everyone can win.
I agree with you and I apologize for not wording my sentence better. I stated, "the problem where everyone wins", and I meant precisely that - that the desire that everybody should win is a problem, and the right way is to let nature take its course and let winners be winners and losers be losers.
Messing with this natural order is bound to cause problems.
US healthcare would be a lot cheaper were it not for insurance companies trying to create monopolies and were it not for government treating it as a hot-button issue all the time. There is absolutely no free market in healthcare in the US, and what you see is actually the result of protectionism and over-regulation.
@Dhiman
Completely agree with you on healthcare in US - they reason why it is overpriced is because of high tort insurance costs, extremely outrageous costs of medicines by the "discovery companies" holding patents, redundant paperwork bureaucracy and unnecessary tests ordering. Each of these are like you said messing with the normal course a doctor would do say 100 years ago - do his tests, offer some medicine and charge a fee.
Honestly the world already knows that there are little avenues left to keep the entire population fully employed and happy without external intervention (as a pure free market will tend to hit minimum usage of labor) as most goods and services produced on the planet (at least in the North America, West Europe and rich Asian countries) do not necessarily have to employ these many people.
Some places there is government bureaucracy keeping people employed shuffling papers, some side there is the war machine military industrial complex keeping people involved in war and protecting vital natural resources to source keeping the same complex alive. Some other places its drill baby drill and some other places its invented corporate bureaucracy which is a slight more efficient version of the govt run bureaucracy (US has both).
I think around World War 2 was the time when the industrial world realized that no matter what they did due to increasing population and longer life expectancy full employment and prosperous life was impossible. We are all living the consequences of that saturation in productivity that the world hit followed by the enormous worldwide baby boom that followed.
Skeptic above:
One other reason to count is the cost of legal issues and lawyer scam. If someone is not treated properly, the lawsuit could easily be in tens of millions of dollars. Then malpractice insurance for both lawyers and doctors. The whole system is rigged.
Sorry folks for the off topics.
Today Gold rally saw multiple spikes. I dont remember seeing such multiple spikes in one single day recently. Irony is no one is talking about it. Oscillations of 100 dollars multiple times should be a reason to worry about the GOLD. Shoundn't it?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GCZ11.CMX+Interactive#chart1:symbol=gcz11.cmx;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Sell Gold. It is going back to $500per ounce in the coming years.
Sell RE in India and all of South Asia.
Buy RE in USA at 70% discounted price.
Buy USD as Rupee is trash now, going to 60 soon and then 70.
USDINR just hit 53.60 might fall even more. indians own 950 billion $ in gold
maybe this is the last chancer
NRI Folks:
If you bought real estate in 2008 at USD=40INR, today, your original investment has depreciated by at least 25% today USD=53.5INR. IN rupees, your RE prices will not increase any more, since there are NO buyers (high EMIs, job cuts coming). So, as USD goes to 60->70->100 INR, you will loose more and more and MORE money.
Dump your investment flats in India while there is time. Hold the ones you need for family-visits/retirement, but DUMP THE REST, or you will loose money BIG TIME!!!
@Rustomjee
you will lose big time
And they should. A bubble burst is complete only when all the speculators have been totally wiped off.
Average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-housing-bubble-20111213,0,3429813.story
@Dhiman, @san
Quoting form the shanghai link I posted. This is what we should make our spouses read.
Li said he hasn't worked up the nerve to tell his parents how much his apartment has fallen in value — not after they lent him their life savings for the down payment. His father, an electrician, and his mother, a middle school teacher, live in Jiangxi, a poor province southwest of Shanghai. Frugal savers, they insist on walking wherever they can to save on bus fare when they visit their son in the city.
"I really thought I could save enough for a house," Li said. "But over the years, property prices grew so much faster than my salary. I couldn't play this catch-up game. I had to ask my parents for help or I'd never settle down."
I am an NRI and let me tell you this: I sold my "investment" property in 2010, after I got a decent price for it. I have only one flat in India for residential use.
@Rustomji and all: I don't know where you get the idea that we NRIs are holding on to hundreds of properties in India. Most of us are salaried like you, and have seen the US housing bubble crash first hand. There are nights like these when I still cannot sleep thinking of the crash. No NRI is stupid enough to hold on to properties in India for "investment", right now.
The "investors" you see, are actually resident Indians, with their black money pumped back to India through offshore accounts. They have amazing holding capacity, they will not sell, even if the prices come down by 50%. Only law enforcement, which does not exist in India, can take care of them. Pray for Lok Pal if you believe in God, or communist revolution if you are atheist.
Genuine NRI investment has been out for more than a year my friends, so, please don't think of all of us as stupid! Like you, we see the crash coming from miles.
Great post.thanks for the valuable information.
"Average prices in the Shanghai area are down about 40% from their peak in mid-2009, to about $176,000 for a 1,000-square-foot home."
Oh please. Gimme a break. What the hell does this have to do with the Indian RE market? India has conditions that are vastly different than China. We have a very high population, a secular trend of urbanization, a high savings rate, a population deeply suspicious of government and with a cultural pre-disposition towards towards RE. None of which exist in China.
It's different here.
"Genuine NRI investment has been out for more than a year my friends, so, please don't think of all of us as stupid! Like you, we see the crash coming from miles."
Really? What utter nonsense. I'm an NRI and I have never - I mean NEVER - met a single NRI who is not of the view that "Indian RE can only go up". All of them parrot the same nonsense: Black money, exploding population, NRIs, high savings rate, blah, blah, blah. as reasons for why "Indian RE can only go up". In fact, the only Desis I have met who fear a bubble in India are the folks I have "met" on this board. I am yet to meet a "live" (i.e. non-electronic) Desi, whether NRI or otherwise, who believes that Indian RE is in the middle of a bubble. In fact, I personally know one NRI who lost his shirt in the implosion of the US housing bubble, but even he is utterly convinced that his RE investments in India can "only go up".
Other NRIs here can back up what I just wrote here.
@Pawan:
"Quoting form the shanghai link I posted. This is what we should make our spouses read."
Please don't feel sorry for these clowns. The Chinese had fair warning about what could happen to RE prices after the experience of the US, UK, Spain, Dubai, etc. in 2008. Yet, these idiots went ahead and blew up massive bubbles in not only China, but also Canada and Australia. They richly deserve what's coming to them (and then some).
some side there is the war machine military industrial complex keeping people involved in war and protecting vital natural resources to source keeping the same complex alive
protecting ? or exploiting those resources with the blood, property and honor of the native populations by demonizing them and justifying their killing rape and pillage ?
NRIs continue to invest but only in properties they would like to retire to or have their parents stay.
One of my friends recently purchased a 2700sft apartment on the outskirts of Chennai with the intention of staying there later.
He did find the depreciated rupee a big help. So, some money continues to trickle in due to the recent collapse of the rupee. Its like you get an extra 15% discount if you move your money to India now.
NRIs want safe havens in India. No one's sure of stability in any one place anymore. This will help builders clear some inventory in the coming weeks.
That said, I am painting only part of the picture here... not all of it. There are other factors at play including the tightening balance of payments situation, flight of capital and the worsening internal economy.
In fact, the only Desis I have met who fear a bubble in India are the folks I have "met" on this board. I am yet to meet a "live" (i.e. non-electronic) Desi, whether NRI or otherwise, who believes that Indian RE is in the middle of a bubble
I have to agree to this one, even my NRI friends in the gulf would jump if they can buy RE in India and they too feel that rates will not come down. But is this not the hallmark of all bubbles where almost everyone thinks that this is the one unmistakeable trade that cannot fail ?
By the way even I have to meet any sizable number of people who feel that RE is in a bubble, but I think fellow bloggers have put it quite correctly that the Indian RE has crashed just by remaining stagnant due to inflation and the current rupee weakness, but I also understand that all this does not matter to an average Indian Resident who has never seen a currency in their life except the rupee.
"Question to all nri's who come to this forum. How about move to 2nd tier city? One can build really nice place there for almost half or less price."
You clearly do not understand the NRI mentality. Being an NRI is all about prestige and showing how superior and wealthier you are than the rest of the unwashed hoi polloi who have the ill fortune to live in India. This means buying (preferably) a house or a flat in a posh area in the centre of town.
Buying a house in the outskirts of the major cities or (the horrors!) a house in a 2nd tier city would be viewed as a sign of utter failure and capitulation. No NRI can ever countenance that degree of mortal humiliation.
Fair number of people posting here are investors themselves - Again - Housing is not merely an investment. (Other kind of Real Estate might be)
I again would say that the black swan moment that is needed (revolution, war, political chaos) is not coming to India any time soon. Elections are still far away in 2014.
Had we voted out McManmohan in 2009 we would have seen enough political turmoil this time around - but that didn't happen. So we are all to blame for the RE mess in one way or the other.
The RBI and Central Govt will fight tooth and nail with the banks to keep the prices high without which they will have to write off billions of $ worth of bad loans.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the present UPA govt drives the country into a ditch and then gives up power for other s to clean it up.
"The RBI and Central Govt will fight tooth and nail with the banks to keep the prices high without which they will have to write off billions of $ worth of bad loans. "
RBI and Central Govt can try* to keep nominal prices high but they don't have control over real prices (as recent events have amply demonstrated).
*try - both the US Govt and the US Fed couldn't put Humpty Dumpty (the US RE market) together again and they are armed with a reserve currency printing press. India is armed with a printing press for a leper's currency (INR).
@anon above.
India is armed with a printing press for a leper's currency (INR).
Thanks for the great laugh :-) :-)
Now, I am only going to use a debit card, not going to touch currency notes any more :-)
@Anon - "India is armed with a printing press for a leper's currency (INR)."
Governments here have lost elections on things as trivial as onion prices. (for one example See bhairon singh shekawat in wikipedia). And every politician knows this. High interest rates hurt, but high inflation loses elections.
I think democracy and the desire to win elections will put the brakes on any unbridled quantitative easing.
True,
India cannot afford more inflation. Interest rates will remain high, no more nonsense money printing stimulus till 2014 elections. Rupee will keep falling and GDP will keep going down which will correct inflation till elections.
As a result, RE will suffer. If RE prices do not go down, there would be hyperinflation to keep them afloat.
True,
India cannot afford more inflation. Interest rates will remain high, no more nonsense money printing stimulus till 2014 elections. Rupee will keep falling and GDP will keep going down which will correct inflation till elections.
As a result, RE will suffer. If RE prices do not go down, there would be hyperinflation to keep them afloat.
True,
India cannot afford more inflation. Interest rates will remain high, no more nonsense money printing stimulus till 2014 elections. Rupee will keep falling and GDP will keep going down which will correct inflation till elections.
As a result, RE will suffer. If RE prices do not go down, there would be hyperinflation to keep them afloat.
Sorry for multiple posts, my browser got stuck. Damn Airtel network.
@Polt - Explain how the Congress and NCP in Maharashtra is winning in Rural elections and slated to win in Municipal election in spite of the inflation, high priced housing etc - check out the results from this week.
Also INC swept the LS and Legislative by-polls. This only means that people have become used to inflation unlike in 1998-99 when BJP lost Delhi, Rajasthan MP due to spike in food prices.
Im not saying that the Indian voter is dumb and that discussion is beyond the scope of this blog. Just saying that the governments are crafty enough to make sure everything is under control around election time
@Polt
Governments here have lost elections on things as trivial as onion prices.
Bang on! Madam and her chamchas have looted the country with both hands in the last 8 years. For now their coffers are full and now they will put a brake on the loot and focus on winning the next elections.
@Skeptic:
People will vote for UPA because they are happy with high RE prices. People are happy as there is a lot of liquidity in the market. Businesses have grown ten folds. People are spending and money is in cycle. Most middle class feels rich and would vote for UPA.
Now, middle class is also pissed off at corruption. If Anna's movement goes through, and due to macro economic factors 2012 takes down India shining story, the same middle class will become against UPA and will vote them out. If RE prices fall in 2012, UPA would definitely lose elections.
So does that mean for present government to fall - RE prices should fall but for RE prices to fall, present Govt should fail?
If that is the case then only an external black swan event will start this course. Perhaps the Fed+ECB mishandling of Euro will cause a systemic banking collapse by the unexpected run on derivatives market, or Iran will bomb Israel, or China does something stupid.
Hi,
Now slowly newspapers started carrying out articles about RE crash.
Now the news has to spread to masses.
I have done my bit.
www.ksmfinanceindia.blogspot.com
good job done
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/nris-onproperty-buying-spree/458868/
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NRIs on a property buying spree
Dilasha Seth / New Delhi December 18, 2011, 0:01 IST
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To cash in on the rupee depreciation, non-resident Indians (NRIs) are making a beeline to buy property in India. Most developers Business Standard spoke to claimed a 25 to 30 per cent spurt in sales to NRIs over the last two months.
Since August, the Indian currency has fallen by around 20 per cent against the US dollar. According to real estate companies, brokers, analysts and consultants, this has triggered a substantial rise in the volume of property-related enquiries from NRIs. The actual deal numbers have also gone up considerably. Many NRI buyers are even buying multiple units for investment purposes.
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