Times of India has the scoop on all this. More good news for builders as they get to build more floors. Bad news for prices as supply increases. Anybody care to comment on the fact that increasing FSI will cause prices to increase ?
MUMBAI: The state government has formally increased the floor space index (FSI) for slum rehabilitation projects from 2.5 to a maximum of 4.
The state urban development department issued a notification on Friday after it got an approval from chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, who also heads the department.
As per the notification, projects involving all high-density slums-those having over 650 tenements per hectare-are entitled to an FSI of 4, whereas those with lower tenement density are entitled to 3.
Senior officials from the urban development department said that the notification highlights that all procedural formalities concerning the higher FSI move are now complete.
After the move to increase size of each rehabilitation tenement for slum dwellers from 225 sq ft to 269 sq ft in 2009, slum redevelopment projects were allowed higher FSI.
A notification under section 154 of the Maharashtra Regional and Town Planning Act ( MRTP), 1966, was issued at that time to allow it to implement the provision pending completion of procedural formalities, including invitation of suggestions and objections from citizens.
These procedural formalities have now been completed and a formal notification issued, a senior state official said.
FSI is a development tool that determines the extent of construction permitted on a plot. It is a ratio of permissible built-up to the total area of the plot. A higher FSI would allow developers additional construction on slum land.
76 comments:
Wash your hands in flowing Ganga!! To translate loosely...
Govt. is out to do as many scams as possible..before the bubble bursts.
Using Indian flawless logic, this will increase the prices and triple their investments.
Using this logic one must invest in land and not apartments. In time one will be allowed to build to sky and extract infinite value.
^ Yes, it's obvious.
Carbon nanotubes and space elevators. Those will keep doubling real estate prices.
I remember sundaas bhai had predicted real estate bubble bursting in 2011, as did so many others..
Which means the consensus seems to be that it will burst due to logical reasons. When, no one knows...but this much is also known, that the longer the bubble persists, the more spectacular the collapse. It looks like the bubble might persist for some time..but this is why I feel the burst is around the corner.
@above
How do you define a burst? if you are looking for some 2008 like spectacular events, you can forget about it. It's more likely that the bubble is slowly bursting right now.
If housing prices lags inflation and rental yields remain depressed I'd say that the bubble has already burst. Which is the case in many Tier II towns.
@MangoMan,
Usually, things which race ahead by 100%/annum, would at some point need to decelerate and reverse direction. Reversion to mean..
I think one can characterize this current state as the point of inflection. Where prices are at a stasis and are more or less doing a gradual decline, inventory overhang is a damocles sword, NPA and banks failure are slowly peeping from below the carpet, also stock prices of Realty companies are showing there is a gradual decline. This will become a -ve feedback loop when the overall sentiment becomes sharply negative. Opinion, rumors and chaos in the form of bank runs etc, will lead to a decline. When that happens, watch out below!! As Mr. Buffett has said - Mr. Market goes up climbing stairs but comes down in an elevator! How much will it fall? I think we are about to discover, my guess is that we will experience a steep fall and you can discount all those notions about black money, this time its different, MMS will save us or the market is already inflated. If the market is already inflated, someone will have to raise rates soon...or people will be doing swan dives from their "Luxury" apartments.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news/real-estate-companies-like-dlf-godrej-properties-dole-out-liberal-dividends-to-promoters/articleshow/14620720.cms
And the builders continue to drain money away from the companies, at a time when they are struggling to pay debts. This is daylight robbery.
This move just reminds of
Dooble wale tinke ka bhi sahara lete hai...
Looks like these are some final tricks before the GREAT INDIAN BUBBLE, INDIA SHINING, INDIA THIS AND INDIA THAT show ends.
Its been 5 years on this blog. And the sense of happiness i get seeing prices rise is immense.
I am glad i didnt buy anything during this time else i wud have become the biggest loser just like all the pro bubble guys out here
When greedy people fall i get happy. :)
@Mehta
No one knows how or when the bubble will burst, it's all speculation esp. when CB's are doing their best to hold the fort.
There's a term called "the fog of war", it applies here as well, I don't think anyone has a friggin clue what's really going on. Banks are printing, stock markets are doing their best to stay up and the governments are trying their best to fudge the data while prices keep going up and quality of air, water and all major resources keep worsening.
UP shining:
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/no-car-no-problem-buy-one-with-govt-funds-akhilesh-tells-up-mlas-365207.html
@aam aadmi
No one knows how or when the bubble will burst, it's all speculation esp. when CB's are doing their best to hold the fort.
It has been observed and reported that since US gave up the gold standard, disparity between rich and poor has grown at a very fast rate. Total wealth i.e., present + future, is fixed. All that money printing does is to transfer wealth to a select few at the expense of the masses.
@Pawan
All that money printing does is to transfer wealth to a select few at the expense of the masses.
I know, it's a ponzi scheme. But this way it's very hard to point out that look, here things are falling apart or there things are collapsing. Which is why I call it the fog of war because you don't know if you've won the war and you have to keep fighting.
Also there's a little bit of humility added, I don't claim to know what will be the shape of things in future, only certain long term trends are clear right now, how they will affect everyone is unclear.
@Pawan - "Total wealth i.e., present + future, is fixed."
That is not true. The world has a whole has become richer/prosperous over the centuries. We might all wish for a return to simpler times, but the fact was that life was much much harder then.
"All that money printing does is to transfer wealth to a select few at the expense of the masses."
This also is questionable. The rich become rich by making goods and creating services that the poor consume. So perforce the poor have to have money to consume. If the poor/middle class stop buying or are unable to buy, all the wealth that is held in stocks/bonds/RE will evaporate.
This is what folks like us should be worried about as we get older.
http://ask.slashdot.org/story/12/07/03/0217202/ask-slashdot-how-do-i-stay-employable
The last ten years of continuous double digit pay hikes, multiple job offers, double digit asset price growth was an anomaly created by a credit bubble. That has ended now in the West, clear signs that it is ending now here too.
Life will go back to the old 'normal'. Agree/Disagree?
@Polt
Life will go back to the old 'normal'. Agree/Disagree?
Not exactly. The old normal was everyone working for the govt. like in our parents' generation. Insane hikes and multiple offers at higher level are already scarce. Only the freshers can jump around a bit.
Total wealth is not fixed.
My bad. I should have said natural resources are fixed. Of course technology can make those resources more useful. Building a tractor instead of a manual tiller. Harnessing solar or wind power instead of fossil fuels.
@MM,
I agree - no one knows "when" the bubble will burst. But people can roughly forecast an inflection point..like you folks are saying incomes have plateaued, prices have leveled out...CB's printing money and achieving only inflation with no or declining growth. All these are signs of an imminent huge deflation. When that happens, it will take years before people and markets recover.
Today's article in TOI says, builders are taking cash from their companies in the dividends. Looks like they are looting their own debt laden companies' cash and heading for the hills. Sign of our times. Its a pity that in India, people get away with Murder...I am sure the spate of bankruptcies and Bank failures will be regarded with a lot of surprise and as something which no one could have foreseen. In the US, no one got arrested for the 2008 debacle..except people like Madoff..
BTW, there is an interesting book called Ponzi Planet which was released some time back...worth a read.
@Mehta
All these are signs of an imminent huge deflation. When that happens, it will take years before people and markets recover.
Well, don't hold your breath. These things can take a lot of time to collapse. Although personally I want it to collapse now rather than later when the consequences will be much more deadly.
Interesting
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/Gurgaon-riots-after-all-night-outage/articleshow/14657224.cms
Collapse in prices is completely ruled out. If you're assuming collapse in asset prices you have to assume so many things and your entire theory will fall apart.
As an example, global economy is so interlinked that there cannot be a collapse in India/China/US/Europe (take your pick) without equivalent/cascading collapses in the rest of the global economies.
All these red-white-and-blue washed pseudo anarchists waiting for "collapse" have prepared to airlift their family and near and dear ones to privately secured ranches.
My guess is, ironically, they'll probably be the first victims to fall to the stampeding horde...
For those in US, collapse is what happened in Detroit, MI.
Anyone want a house for 50 thousand rupees (yeah, you read that right)
How many are running to buy there?
Detroit had houses selling for $1.
Nobody ever lived in Detroit, except the crackheads and junkies. The whites moved out of Detroit in the 70's after the riots, Everybody else upto the lower middle class moved out in the 80's and 90's. So all that was left in the City was shit and that reflected the housing prices.
Anon at 1:41
Thanks for the link...I am on the lookout for long term trends, it's hard to tell whether this is a signal or just plain noise.
I'd have to say that there has been a sharp upsurge in the number of power outages and water shortages not just in India but all over the world. Even in US blackouts which used to be fixed in 24 hours now take 60-72 hours to get fixed. In Europe there are news stories about power outages, water shortages etc. It was almost unheard of thirty years ago. The weather isn't helping either, rains have become very erratic over the past two-three decades.
We still have a long way to go down but we are definitely past our peak of industrial development. In the name of development we have wreaked havoc on the planet, we are about to get some payback now.
You can expect a lot of similar incidents in future.
Nobody ever lived in Detroit, except the crackheads and junkies. The whites moved out of Detroit in the 70's
Get a clue.
I've advised my friends and family to buy in well established areas. It is worth the extra premium. Now when they look at the power and water shortages impacting the new developments on the outskirts they are thankful for heeding my advice.
Thankfully none of them have bought "investment" properties.
Even a backward village looks like a prime area if you get suckered into the marketing hype and BS peddled by the promoters of the projects.
Nothing wrong with living in a village but if you're paying city level prices then you might as well live in a real city!
^ If there's a continuing power shortage (that is very likely with increasing demand every year, and no interest in creating nuclear power plants), those premium houses will not save them.
^ Power shortage does not mean zero power. In India, when the decision is made to cut services (water, power, police etc.) the poor and disenfranchised (pretty much the entire middle class) are going to be the victims.
We have plenty of power and water. Just not enough for 1.2 billion! A few hundred million though could easily live like royalty. :-P
The way I see it happening is the poor and middle class will be fighting amongst themselves for scraps.
Here is official income tax payers data from GOI for FY12:
INDIVIDUAL TAXPAYERS (FOR FY12)
Taxable income
Taxpayers (million)
Up to Rs 5 lakh
28.8
Rs 5-10 lakh
1.8
Rs 10-20 lakh
1.4
Above Rs 20 lakh
0.4
Total
32.4
Source: Govt data
I know a lot of people will be using black money market excuses to show this does not reflect the actual wealth of Indian households, but believe me its not going to make much of a difference - most businessmen in India do not make that much money as people may think. If there are just 4 lakh people filing ITR above 20 lakh and a 3 bhk in Mumbai/Delhi is above INR 1 cr, it clearly means its only speculation supported by cheap credit which has fuelled the housing bubble.
@REBear,
Excellent data.
Most new houses being constructed are 1Cr or more. And for new property you must pay white unless the builder himself is accepting cash payments and getting the houses registered at say 50L instead of 1 Cr. I do not think that is happening at a large level. Moreover, cash strapped govts are ever increasing circle rates - the minimum white amount you must pay to buy a property. This clearly signals impending bust and doom.
@RE Bear - "most businessmen in India do not make that much money as people may think."
Completely agree. Its a myth that all businessmen are rolling in money. From your neighbourhood shopkeeper to the small factory owner/builder, earnings are low because of competition. Even in the skilled professions like law/medicine, only a handful make a ton of cash. Most others run a small operation, enough to lead a reasonably comfortable but not an extravagant life.
Our bubble was no different as you point out. It was an old fashioned credit (OFC) bubble. Like other OFCs it too will burst/dissipate.
"only speculation supported by cheap credit which has fuelled the housing bubble."
Probably the clearest sign of this is the price/monthlyrent ratios as high as 400+ in many cities. (i.e 1cr house renting for 25k).
@Polt
Probably the clearest sign of this is the price/monthlyrent ratios as high as 400+ in many cities. (i.e 1cr house renting for 25k).
Is it 400? Should it not be 1lac per month/25k per month=4?
Another attempt at propping up the bubble:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/cabinet-to-view-1-subvention-proposal-for-rs-25l-homes-_725387.html
Anon @2:02
If you believe these govt. stats I suppose you would believe inflation and GDP numbers as well, right?
Anyone can pick and choose fake numbers to fit their preset point of view.
In India, more than any other country, peoples personal experience is more important than official govt. statistics.
I'd put more credibility in a tax professional who knows of all the schemes being employed. And all my friends who work in this area tell me that tax laws are being broken by a vast majority irrespective of the demographic. While cricket is a game that is watched by many Indians but played by a few, tax evasion is the exact opposite.
For an alternative take:
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2012/07/04/downturn-what-downturn-ask-indias-super-rich/?mod=irt
Another attempt at propping up the bubble:
The bubble is in your mind. It's been growing year after year!
There is an old saying in Tamil-that even if you roll in the sand of the river's beach, only the sand that will stick will stick to you. In other words, you will get only what you are destined for.
I went to the USA, experienced the dot com bubble, the housing bubble and still stuck in a dead end job. People in India just a few years out and who had bout a house for a few laks are all crorepatis now and all so important/confident.
Now it is too expensive for me to contemplate coming back. Maybe when I retire, yes-who knows if social security will be solvent then!! So yes, a lot of NRIs can be bitter about missed opportunities-but I have just learnt to laugh. Old Indian spiritual teachings make a lot of sense, when you experience life's ups and downs.
Having said that, lets see how this housing bubble fares.
@ above,
I am a fellow NRI..same situation.
You will find replies to your observation, suggesting this this time its different in India.
You should not react, just look at the comments, they will add to your humor when you finally get to laugh soon..
@Anon above
There is also an old Russian saying that you don't buy the house, you buy the neighborhood.
A 500sqft cardboard house in a place with water, electricity and educated people is better than a 3000sqft mansion in a place like Gurgaon. The problem with people in western countries is that human psychology works on relative basis, at least for the majority.
They are so seeped in gloom and doom that they are overlooking obvious signs right in front of them, as someone living in US right now, you enjoy a lifestyle that even the Emperors of yore couldn't dream of. IIRC the western world still has abundant resources, developing countries like India on the other hand are going to be humanitarian disasters in the coming future. Our so called 'human capital' will turn into a 'time bomb' as the infrastructure slowly deteriorates and EROEI (Energy returned on Energy invested) keeps going down.
When the dust settles, people who chose to stay NRI's will thank their stars.
As for myself, I would prefer living in some quiet, remote place like Costa Rica or Bhutan and watch the unfolding disaster from the sidelines.
The cash crunch has started to affect the RE companies now
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_cash-strapped-realtors-are-laying-off-staff_1710710
@REBear
Agricutural income is not taxed
Large farmers (mostly politicians) from Jammu to Trivandrum have made millions in untraced wealth.
Its appalling that the Indian Income Tax dept does not even know how much wealth is being converted from white to black via unaccounted agriculture.
When the dust settles, people who chose to stay NRI's will thank their stars.
As for myself, I would prefer living in some quiet, remote place like Costa Rica or Bhutan and watch the unfolding disaster from the sidelines.
The white man has raped Americans (the natives), Africans, Asians in the past.
You seem to have never paid attention in history class. No need to study entire history, just go back a few years to September 2001. How Indians were being abused in NYC and elsewhere? Even in Cali some Sikh people were shot. NRI kids are openly called sand ni##ers on facebook and online forums. Many NRIs prefer to send their kids with Asian majority for this reason. Even blacks in US treat Indians as inferior to them!
NRIs are routinely abused in Australia and UK and are treated as 3rd world citizens. Like someone said earlier, shitty people.
And you're expecting people's behavior will improve as situation deteriorates?
Sorry my friend, look at what is happening to Mexicans. As long as their labor was needed no body made any sound, infact green cards and amnesty was given routinely. Now that they are no longer required, they are being hounded like criminals.
If IT goes south in US, expect the H1-Bs to be rounded up similarly. Don't know what will happen of green card and citizens but can't discount anything.
I think India will do pretty well as our culture has undergone 5000+ years of hardcore tests. :-)
The recent ape-the-west-mentality, will soon be forgotten as a mere blip.
By the same token, the Chinese will do well too.
It's the West that is in deep doo-doo. IIRC, Greece was the birthplace of their civilization.
In other news BoE and ECB join Uncle Ben Bernanke's 0% interest printing press club
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-04/draghi-king-may-delve-deeper-into-zero-rate-world-today.html
This time it is going to be 0% for this entire decade I think.
@Anon
You have a moral take on things, I don't. The westerners may have raped the rest of the world but it's they who have the best resources and lands right now, as simple as that. Their lands are sparsely populated and their standard of living is so high that even if it comes down a bit, it won't matter much.
Those are the facts, nothing to argue about here.
As for the discrimination you talk about, you ain't seen real discrimination. What you talk about is peanuts compared to the kind that goes on in India. Even in the 60's US had much worse discrimination, NRI's have it much better there. In the end it's all in the head, facts say that quality of life is much higher there.
I happened to see pictures of 'poor' people in Greece recently and I was confused, they look better than most middle class people in India. Let me know when people in Greece start walking 3 km's to fetch water or start going on a meal a day. It's all in the head till then.
I think India will do pretty well as our culture has undergone 5000+ years of hardcore tests
First I don't know where that figure of 5k comes from, it's more like 3.5k if you take archaeological data and I am curious as to at what point of time in the past 5000 years was the population of India 1.3 billion ?
Our and not just ours but the world's gargantuan population is sustained by massive energy inputs, you take that away and it all goes away, but that's far away in future, the reality right now is that we are critically dependent on foreign imports of energy and fertilizers for our survival. I don't see how we can get out of this conundrum.
"As for myself, I would prefer living in some quiet, remote place like Costa Rica or Bhutan and watch the unfolding disaster from the sidelines."
I was offered a sea side office at costa rica.
I didnt take it.
Now i think i shud have, seeing the abundant nature and beautiful rainforests Costa Rica has.
Nature makes you see the beautiful reality instead of this rat/rate race.
But no worries. Im from mangalore so i have lived in nature :) and as i said,instead of worrying im laughing at some of the pro bublle posters and enjoying myself on this blog..
"Even blacks in US treat Indians as inferior to them!"
You, poster are a discrimator yourself.
Watch how north indians make fun of south indians because of thier dark color.
Your sentence itself proves that you expect blacks to be the most inferior of all.
Compare you and the westerner. What do you see? He has every reason to consider you inferior except maybe your brain power.
Like you do when you see some poor beggar here in india.
Got my point?
Atleast westerners are kind enough to be polite.
Wht would you do if some poor beggar came and stayed around you?
Just for the fact.
Indians are shitty people no doubt.
Why do they shit on tracks? Any person however poor and who has decency will never do that in full public view however helpless, however poor.
What about our news channels who are operated from New Delhi and have reporters from UP and Bihar.
Compare CNN and compare one of our channels. You will see the difference.
25% discounts on:
Developers in a bid to liquidate their higher priced inventory have been more open to negotiation in the premium segment, reducing prices upto a maximum of 25% in favour of a sizeable up-front payment.
Full link:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-edge/mumbai-property-rate-to-dipunsold-stock-knight-frank_726423.html#toptag
@Pawan - "reducing prices upto a maximum of 25%"
How can that happen? We were supposed to be different. This is Gods own country. RE will never fall here in nominal terms. :) We have large population, black money, builder-builder mafia, builder-bureaucrat mafia, builder-bureaucrat-politico mafia, gold holdings, NRI money, IT money, RBI printer, rich farmers...
I forget the other arguments put forward by the bulls here.
@Pawan
Thanks for the link, looks like the banks are coming for their NPA's as they have done with Kingfisher.
Heard that Mallya's Goa bungalow is on sale.
Developers in a bid to liquidate their higher priced inventory have been more open to negotiation in the premium segment, reducing prices upto a maximum of 25% in favour of a sizeable up-front payment.
I think it would be for a under construction property. Once you associate with the builder, they know how to milk to holy cow :). Did anyone buy in 2009 under construction flats? Have they been delayed? Although I am not a RE bull, I don't think any bubble burst when there is a monetary expansion happening. Once the tide turns around things may be different.
// reducing prices upto a maximum of 25% //
Will this put pressure on investor's hold / selling flats? I don't see that yet. We can go blah blah on these.
RE in India is different. No matter what media publishes, that cannot change fact on the floor.
Will this put pressure on investor's hold / selling flats? I don't see that yet
Don't think that all investor are millionaires with infinite holding power. They are just speculators leveraging a few lakhs to book a crore property betting like you that it will never go down. When the tide goes down you will see who is swimming naked (Warren Buffet). Mallya is a very good example.
@Anon - 'Will this put pressure on investor's hold / selling flats? I don't see that yet. We can go blah blah on these. '
Did you RTFA ? From the article - 'The investors' segment that makes up approximately 20% of the market demand has been observed to be actively offloading its real estate holdings, thereby adding significant shadow supply into these micromarkets.'
We are not different. Just like the west we too have folks who think that we are different :)
@Anon
RE in India is different. No matter what media publishes, that cannot change fact on the floor.
GSM has answered you with the Warren Buffet quote.
Indian RE market has not seen a significant bear market yet. Let it begin and attitudes will change in no time.
For decades and centuries our forefathers taught us not to take debt but that thinking changed in last 10-15-20 years. When something you have been taught for centuries can be forgotten in a decade or two, you can't imagine how fast the new age thinking - debt is good - will change.
@Pawan
"...For decades and centuries our forefathers taught us not to take debt but that thinking changed in last 10-15-20 years. When something you have been taught for centuries can be forgotten in a decade or two, you can't imagine how fast the new age thinking - debt is good - will change...."
If you are paying close to 10% interest on home loans and inflation is as well close to 10%; then what are you really loosing?
@NRIs are routinely abused in Australia and UK and are treated as 3rd world citizens
Yeh NRI aisa janwar hai jiski koi jaat aur pehchan nahi hoti hai. Usko koi farak nahi padta, uska muksat sirf bada bank balance aur shaandar property kharedna hota hai.
Aise aadmi ka bhala koi kyon ijjat kare?
@Bezaar - "If you are paying close to 10% interest on home loans and inflation is as well close to 10%; then what are you really loosing?"
Opportunity cost - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost
When you can pay 2.5% and live in the same house, why pay 10%.
People often make the mistake of thinking of rent as wasted money. In reality it is no different from taking a mortgage. A mortgage is principal + interest. The principal amount is the cost of the house itself. Think of the interest as the rent you pay the bank for the house/principal.
Which is why a high interest/rent ratio often indicates overvaluation.
@polt - Renting in India is not like renting in other countries - it means being at the mercy of landlord every year or so.
the 7.5% premium is to avoid having to move all the time.
@skeptic
the 7.5% premium is to avoid having to move all the time.
This is exactly the kind of stupid reasons people fabricate to justify their own actions and beliefs.
Being in debt has its own opportunity cost. Let me give you my own example. Last year, this time I was working in Intel. Today I am in a 20 people startup trying to do something interesting/big. Had I been under a big debt, I would never have made this switch. That is the real opportunity cost for me.
@Pawan -
I am not justifying spending the extra 7.5%
I am just saying that given the present scenario, many people would take that chance of paying that premium in order to secure a home.
Since Banks in India don't lend more than 50% of the total value (80% of white portion) - there is not a really heavy debt burden if the property price appreciates. (unless the building is going to collapse).
Usually ones spouse can take over the load of the EMI in worst case of losing ones job for a few weeks/transitioning to a newer better opportune job.
On the flip side in your case, if you owned property worth a year/2 yrs salary, you could probably sell it and use it as capital for your startup.
Its a different matter if your equity in the home is negative - but otherwise I dont see debt as an opportunity cost.
DLF New Town Heights Gurgaon
Hi , I've read a few things on this site and I really do think that it has helped tremendously. There's still a heap I need to learn thus can continue learning and can keep coming back.
Thanks.
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