Monday, June 02, 2008

The real question is which segments of the market have seen a slowdown. Is it the 5k segment, the 10k segment or > 10 segment. My guess is that the big number of registrations are in the 2k-5k segment and there on the curve is trending down towards the right as the price per sq/ft drops. Indian Express reports

MUMBAI, JUNE 1: Mumbai’s realty market, which in recent years witnessed an astronomical price increase bringing it in the league of the world’s most expensive cites, is finally taking a beating. Property sales that have been growing at a clip of about 20% every year have plummeted by 17% in 2007-08, the first time in six years.

Though the property market in the country’s financial capital has been rife with talk of a slump for some time now, this is the first time figures prove the extent of the slowdown. Information about residential and commercial property sales from the stamp duty registration office show almost 12,000 fewer transactions during the last financial year compared to the year before. From April 2007 to March 2008, 62,595 flats were purchased in Mumbai as against 74,555 in 2006-07.

Analysts said this could be just the tip of the iceberg as stamp duty registration figures indicate the trend only among genuine homebuyers. There could be more of a downswing in real estate investments as people are backing off from the sector in large numbers.

Sanjay Dutt, joint managing director of Cushman and Wakefield, said that annually there has been a 20-25% increase in transactions since 2001. “The market peaked in 2007. There were glimpses of market correction in certain cities by the end of 2007. But it was only in 2008 that realisation on the investors’ part and the stagnation that was until now only a perception became a reality,” he said.

Realty analysts say sales volumes are expected to dive further south as developers persist on holding on to their steep prices and buyers anticipate a further fall with current rates being beyond reach. According to Akshay Kumar, managing director of Parklane Property Advisors, the market is in a corrective mode and the downward drift will continue for another 12 months.

“Between 1992-96, the market ran up the same way it did during 2003-07. Post-’96, the volumes dropped by 50%. This time again it is expected to drop substantially though not so steeply. The demand is now extremely sluggish and customers do not want to stick out their necks and transact at prevailing rates,” he said.

In fact, comparative figures for the month of April since 2006-07 show that there has been a drastic 30% drop in transactions this year as compared to three years ago. There were only 5,289 transactions last month as compared to 7,471 in April 2006-07.

Signs of the sluggish market were visible when a recent auction of plots at the Bandra-Kurla Complex turned out to be a damp squib. Just a year ago, a plot of land in the same place had become the national indicator of the euphoric real estate scenario.

“Developers who are not able to sustain for another six months will set the valuation. Prices have peaked too fast over the last six years, so a correction was inevitable. Besides peaking of values, when global factors showed signs of stress even the investors’ segment started withdrawing towards the end of 2007,” said Dutt.

The government, Dutt said, has now started sending signals to an overheated market by taking measures to curtail liquidity in the market and speculation in real estate. “These include controlling the Foreign Direct Investment in the sector as well as imposing higher interest rates. When the market recovers this time, there will be a more healthy and steady growth than the quantum leaps we saw until now,” he said.

Bangalore's New Airport Is a Dream Going Sour

My gut feeling is that the new BJP government will come down harshly on BIAL and open the HAL airport for domestic flights. I don't see Y'Appa, Advani and Narayan Murthy making 3 journeys to the airport every week. With the decline of Deve Gowda's influence in Bengaluru Devanhalli will lose its lustre as the next hot investment destination inspite of all the rosy news being planted by the land lobby in various news papers, the Times of India being the most prominent of the lot.

Commentary by Andy Mukherjee

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- What should have been a moment of fulfillment for India, after 17 years of false starts, delays and disappointments, is rapidly turning into a farce.

It has been less than a week since a brand-new airport opened in Bangalore, India's computer-software capital, and already there is a big question mark over whether the Indian government will be able to keep a key promise it made to private investors to get them to build the airfield.

The $618 million project, partly owned by Siemens Project Ventures GmbH and Unique Zurich Airport, is embroiled in a law suit initiated by Bangalore City Connect.

The citizens advocacy group is contesting the government's 2004 commitment to Bangalore International Airport Ltd. -- which owns and operates the new facility -- to close down the city's rickety, old, state-managed airbase, which was built in 1964 to test military planes and was later pushed into civilian service.

In granting monopoly rights to the new company, public interest has been neglected, City Connect says in its petition.

One objection is that the new airport is too small because planners underestimated demand.

As a result, it will be operating at full capacity in its very first year with traffic growing 30 percent annually. To close down the existing airfield, situated inside the city, and direct all travelers to a new one at Devanahalli, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the city center, is madness, the critics say.

``All over the world wherever a private monopoly is created, public interest predominates,'' says T.V. Mohandas Pai, a member of the citizens group and a director of Infosys Technologies Ltd., India's second-largest computer-software developer.

Monopoly Rights

``Government has given a monopoly and it was done in circumstances that existed five years ago,'' says Pai. ``Things were totally different, there wasn't much traffic and growth was slow. Bangalore wanted an international airport.''

Albert Brunner, chief executive officer of the new airport, disputes that assessment. The existing runway can handle 20 million passengers a year, he says, compared with the 12.5 million expected in the first year of operations.

Besides, there's a plan to build a second runway, he says. But what he can't do anything about -- and what I suspect is the real issue here -- is ground transportation.

It has been eight years since the location of the new airport has been known; in all that time the state government of Karnataka state -- of which Bangalore is the capital -- didn't bother to build an expressway.

$488 Billion

The net result is this: A software engineer working in Electronic City on Bangalore's outskirts may end up spending three hours on the road to catch a one-hour flight to another destination within India.

That, more than anything else, is why frequent fliers of Bangalore are feeling cheated with an airport they have eagerly awaited for so many years.

The new airport is spread over 4,000 acres, has eight aerobridges, nine remote bays, 53 check-in counters and parking space for 2,000 cars. The old airport didn't even have a lounge for international business-class passengers.

India can't allow the Bangalore airport to become a public- relations disaster.

At stake is $488 billion in capital that the government estimates it would need to ease shortages in infrastructure: roads, ports, airports and power stations.

Independent Regulator

In the future, the national government has to view every project in its totality by making an inventory of amenities that a state or a municipal authority is expected to provide. The fees, tolls and levies accruing to sub-national governments from any project must be linked to these milestones.

And when the rules of the game have to be tweaked midway -- as at times they must be -- it helps to have these judgments come from independent regulators who have the expertise to make nuanced, data-based decisions that may be acceptable to all stakeholders.

Finally, demand estimation is too important to be left entirely to experts.

Companies such as Google Inc. are harnessing the power of prediction markets -- which gather information from a large number of participants -- to generate useful forecasts.

There's no reason why governments can't do the same.