Friday, January 06, 2012

Ignore warnings at own Peril

Article link, Emerging Markets

The collapse of the emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil, will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the world’s economies, and will plunge most countries back into a global recession.

It is our view that emerging market growth has reached an unsustainable level and that a slowdown is taking place. A slowdown is generally not such a calamitous situation, but with expectations for China, and emerging markets at such extremes, the failure to meet or beat these lofty forecasts could mean big shocks to global economies and stocks.

Emerging Market Warning Signs

  • Surging inflation that threatens sustainable growth
  • Soaring money supply that fuels bubbles in stocks and real estate
  • Credit bubbles
  • Massive and understated loan exposure
  • Tightening monetary policy that could “put the brakes” on the economy
  • Inverted yield curves that usually appear before recessions
  • Real estate bubbles evident in ghost towns and empty malls
  • Overconfidence buying at auctions
  • The infamous “skyscraper indicator”
  • Fraudulent companies that have attracted investment from around the world when they are nothing but “shell” companies with unproven financials
  • Most importantly: The stock markets of China, Brazil, and others have been deep into bear-market territory in 2011 – down between 20 percent and 30 percent from their peaks
  • Sunday, January 01, 2012

    Laughing Waters is no Laughing Matter§id=1&contentid=2011020420110204081607853b53eeb38

    An IT czar, two top-notch cricketers and a leading fashion designer have one more thing in common besides being super-achievers in their respective fields: All four, along with some 400 affluent Bangaloreans, seem to have been taken for a royal ride while attempting to purchase posh villas.

    Another major issue is the ambiguity over who the developer-cum-owner of the land really is. The name that has repeatedly cropped up is that of Prestige. According to Balasubramanian, the property was jointly developed by O G Ragulu’s son, Shrivatsa Rajulu, P S Developers (Prestige) and Laughing Waters. The permission for the layout from the administrator of Ramagondanahalli was obtained by Irfan Razack, chairman and managing director, Prestige Group. Razack held the power of attorney for O G Rajulu, the original owner of the land. Razack’s address mentioned in the documents is Copper Arch, Infantry Road — the official address of Prestige before it moved to the current office on Guard Cross Road.

    However, Prestige maintained that P S Developers was never a part of it. In a letter to the Laughing Waters Owners and Residents Association on November 9, 2010, Prestige Group’s senior vice president, T Arvind Pai, clarified: “We maintain that P S Developers is not part of the Prestige Group and to our knowledge is no longer in existence.” Pai stated that as per the grant khata issued by the thasildar’s office on March 13, 1967, “There is a kharab land of 4.36 acres which has to be reserved for road and drains. It is very clearly established that Laughing Waters is not a Gomala land or government land, and it is therefore incorrect to state that this is a Gomala land.”