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Emerging MarketsThe collapse of the emerging markets, especially China, India, and Brazil, will have a huge ripple effect on the rest of the world’s economies, and will plunge most countries back into a global recession.
It is our view that emerging market growth has reached an unsustainable level and that a slowdown is taking place. A slowdown is generally not such a calamitous situation, but with expectations for China, and emerging markets at such extremes, the failure to meet or beat these lofty forecasts could mean big shocks to global economies and stocks.
Emerging Market Warning Signs
Surging inflation that threatens sustainable growth
Soaring money supply that fuels bubbles in stocks and real estate
Credit bubbles
Massive and understated loan exposure
Tightening monetary policy that could “put the brakes” on the economy
Inverted yield curves that usually appear before recessions
Real estate bubbles evident in ghost towns and empty malls
Overconfidence buying at auctions
The infamous “skyscraper indicator”
Fraudulent companies that have attracted investment from around the world when they are nothing but “shell” companies with unproven financials
Most importantly: The stock markets of China, Brazil, and others have been deep into bear-market territory in 2011 – down between 20 percent and 30 percent from their peaks