Friday, October 24, 2008

Prestige Shantiniketan - Roof collapse.


Four injured as Prestige group’s 15-storeyed structure collapses
S. Rajendran and M.T. Shivakumar
The cement slab of the top floor collapsed first and then the rest crumbled

— Photo: Bhagya Prakash K

CASCADING EFFECT: One of the structures at Shantiniketan, Whitefield, which collapsed in Bangalore on Thursday.

BANGALORE: Four persons were injured and another 100 construction workers had a providential escape when a part of a 15-storeyed concrete structure under construction of the Prestige group crashed at Whitefield here on Thursday.

The block which collapsed is part of the 20 blocks under construction by Prestige in a joint venture with Shantiniketan. The top floor slab which collapsed first was laid only a few days ago.

The police told The Hindu that the accident occurred around 5 p.m. when a small portion of the top floor collapsed resulting in the slab of the floor below it collapsing in a short while. Owing to sheer weight, the slabs of the lower floors collapsed subsequently, all in a span of 50 minutes, although the embedded steel rods prevented the slabs from falling in a heap.

The injured were identified as Srinivas (20), Dasharat (25), Mahendra Prasad (25) and Dadudar (30). Dadudar is said to be a native of Bihar and the other three residents of Kadugodi and surrounding areas in Bangalore. They sustained minor injuries when they were running out of the building, and were initially taken to Vydehi Hospital and after first aid were reportedly taken away by the site engineers for further medical attention. The workers were evacuated from the site. Complete information relating to the building collapse is yet to be made available to the police. The Prestige Shantiniketan complex comprises several towers, each of them of several storeys and located in the vicinity of the International Technology Park. There is no information on the strength of the work force at the construction site. A Malaysian construction company (IJM) was building the superstructure for the Prestige Group, which has undertaken the joint venture project with Shantiniketan (Chaitanya Properties) of D.K. Audikesavalu.

Nayeem Noor, vice-president (public relations) of the Prestige group said the collapse occurred after the top floor slab was cast. “The super structure is intact and there are no casualties.” A head count at the construction site has been conducted and it is confirmed that there is no casualty including injury suffered by any person, he added.
Enough time to escape

N.M. Nachappa, security guard at the site, told The Hindu that “the entire building crashed in 50 minutes. There was enough time for all the workers to escape.”

According to an eyewitness, around 4.50 p.m., the slabs of the building started to collapse. Then there were around 120 people, including women and children. “Immediately after the incident, the workers at the construction site had left. Very soon they were sent to isolated places in a few trucks.”

“A Few officers, perhaps from the contractors side, had shifted all the workers to some other location immediately. They instructed the security guard and other workers at the construction site not to answer the media or the police,” he said.

The Bruhat Bangalore Mahanagara Palike has taken a serious note of the accident. Directions have been issued to stop construction pending an inquiry.

Several superstructures are under construction in the vicinity of the ITPL.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Dark Diwali: Pink slips, pay cuts await realty staff

Observer,
Here is the post following up on your comment about the reality layoffs. Some of your other comments have some good advice which I will collate and post as a new article.
For Anil and other realty touts, this is the writing on the wall. Your jobs are no more secure then the IT/ITES folks, so better tighten your purse strings.
Also regarding the comment regarding the plot which Anil bought for Rs 150 in Pune and then later sold for Rs 5800 is pure BS. Baner-Pashan apts were at Rs 1800 3 years ago and now they are Rs 3300. So cut the crap and try selling the Taj Mahal to somebody else.
NEW DELHI: It’s not going to be a happy Diwali for people working in the real estate industry. Even as sales failed to pick up this festive season, most realty firms including DLF, Unitech, Omaxe, Parsvnath and BPTP, now plan to lay off staff in significant numbers soon after Diwali.
While spokespersons of all these companies denied there were plans to cut jobs or salaries, executives in these companies told ET that job cuts were in the offing and salaries have been delayed in some of these companies.

“All real estate players, including us, will have to reduce manpower cost significantly if we are to survive in the current hostile market conditions,” says a top executive at a Delhi-based listed mid-size realty firm, which plans to reduce manpower by almost 20%. The job cuts will start happening soon after Diwali.

Executives at many other real estate firms also confirmed companies plan to offload people and a list of staff was being prepared, who would be asked to leave soon after the festive season was over. Developers are waiting for Diwali as they didn’t want to dampen sentiments further.
“Job cuts at Jet Airways became a big issue also because it was done before Diwali. Developers are wary of raking up any political controversy,” explained a senior executive.
Also, realty firms needed large number of sales staff for the festive season. But now that their price discounts or other freebies have failed to stimulate the home market, developers feel they can cut back on staff. The developers have already started easing off some staff. Many developers, including DLF, had already asked around a few hundred employees to leave.
And sources say more job cuts are in the offing at DLF, as construction pace slows and expansion plans are put on hold. Unitech, Omaxe, Parsvnath and BPTP too prepare to issue pink slips.
Salaries have been delayed at many mid-size and small realty firms, even as management is asking employees to take salary cut. Even though he denies salaries are being delayed or cut at his company, Parsvnath chairman Pradeep Jain supports the idea of salary cut.
“Employees’ salaries have risen so much in the past few years that I see no harm in reducing it a bit,” says Mr Jain.
“Salaries at the top management level have already started to come down. A number of real estate players are already renegotiating salaries with staff so that overall wage bill comes down and not many jobs are lost. Companies are preferring to retain the jobs of those capable of multi-tasking,” said Executive Access MD Ronesh Puri.
Employees at most real estate firms are in a state of panic as job loss fears mount. Too many resumes have been floating around in the market. “Earlier it was extremely difficult for a smaller developer like us to hire talent. Now we are flooded with CVs. Surely, people are being fired somewhere else,” says Ambience group chairman Raj Singh Gehlot.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Crisis of the mind

IBN live reports on a suicide/murder by a stock broker who is unable to make good of his losses and take care of his family and buy a flat. As we have discussed, investors have huge losses where they are losing all their capital which they have built up over the past 3 years, plus many have taken loans against the stocks/margin which the banks are asking them to pay back. Added to that they have EmI's on houses. The whole bubble was created on a house of cards and the deck has collapsed.

One of the readers mentioned about an apt which he had purchased for 30L which is now 1.2 crores in 3 years. This is a fantastic investment if he is able to liquidate it at 1.2 Cr. If he does he has found a sucker and more power to him. If he does'nt then I guess he is the sucker, since he wont see 1.2Cr for a very long time. Just as the Sensex has retraced all the 100% return over the 3 year period and stocks are down 70%,80%. so will the housing market retrace to lower levels. No bubble exists in a vaccum and this is no exception.

Also having lived in Bangalore and mumbai with mumbai being my hometown, I can say that Bangalore has many more opportunities for higher paying jobs then mumbai. Housing is also way too cheap as compared to mumbai and with newer societies with all amenities which have sprung up over the past 5 years, things are better in Bangalore then before. The locals complain of the spike in traffic but then mumbai has equally bad traffic so to a mumbaikar there is no difference, but the housing cost and the pay packet, both which work in his favor.

There will be some people who will argue the black money aspect of housing and I can only say that the house of cards was created on EmI availability which generated more black money for the builders. Now that the generator fuse has been shorted, so will the output.

One last point I'd like to make is the psycology of builders who want to keep raising prices even if they can make a handsome profit by selling 10% below their current prices. It achieves the following purposes

1. Creates an illusion that prices are rising prepetually for the buyer who is seeking appreciation.
2. Provides mental comfort to existing owners that they are in the money and they dont need to sell
3. Traps NRI's and other high net worth people who has disposable income and/or black money
4. Enforces the notion that real estate is a growth asset as opposed to an income generating asset. If you looks at the P/E it is abysmal in mumbai
5. Sells the mantra of moving up the chain as real estate always builds equity.

All these things work in the long run if you have a good entry point. In a bubble economy, all bets are off and the last man standing will face the music.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Don't buy unfinished homes

The news is coming thick and fast. DNAIndia is finally doing some realistic reporting. The game is simple. Its a buyers market and the buyer can demand a 40% reduction of a completed property. A deal will only happen if both parties agree and today there are no deals since there is a disconnect. Greed is good but only for a limited time. Now it is the buyers time to get greedy. As the article rightly points out, going for an under construction property is a disaster waiting to happen. There are thousands of new projects which are launched in 2008 and most of them will be delayed by 2-3 years beyond their projected dates. Already Raj Thackrey's campaign is having an effect on mumbai's and Pune's construction market where builders are attributing him to delays. They are also invoking the Force majeure clause which allows them to disown responsibility for building delays. 99acres.com and magicbrics.com have thousands of properties for sale and half of them are ready to occupy. It is a buyers market like never before. So if you have cash, you are king.

Liquidity crunch delaying projects, only 30% price cut can help: Experts

MUMBAI: Want to buy a home this festive season? Then don’t go for a one that is still under construction, warn experts in the realty sector. The global slowdown and crash of financial markets has left builders with little money and they are struggling to wrap up even the half-finished projects, let alone going for new ones, according to industry analysts. Experts warn that the financial strain on realtors is causing indefinite delays in the completion of many projects.

“Those who intend to buy property should go for only completed flats. It’ll be too risky to buy properties under construction,” said an analyst with a foreign brokerage who did not wish to be named.

Real estate is an end-user sector where the money mainly comes from home buyers and development happens in phases.

“But developers across the board raked in money from initial public offerings and invested them in buying land parcels paying huge premiums. Now, banks have stopped lending, money from private equity is very costly and unorganised lenders are charging interest rates as high as 30%. So how can developers complete projects profitably,” asked the analyst.

He cited the example of a Mumbai-based realtor whose high-end residential project in Lower Parel, one of the city’s commercial hubs, was to be completed in 2006 but has now been delayed till 2009. Uncertainty looms large over whether even this deadline will be met, he said.

An official of the realtor in question had earlier told DNA that the project would be rolled out before Diwali this year. An email sent seeking clarification on the new deadline remains unanswered.

This isn’t an isolated case. Analysts say delays of three to four years are likely in under-construction projects.

Despite the headwinds, developers have stubbornly stuck to their pricing. This could be one of the reasons why sales have failed to pick up, even though builders are offering freebies such as free stamp duty registration and parking space, modular kitchens and interiors, and interest-free EMIs till the buyer gets possession of the flat.

“A price correction of a minimum of 30% is required for sales to pick up. If this correction does not come in six months then some listed developers will end up being negative cash companies. Even if buyers are desperately looking for houses, they should wait for a minimum of three months before taking the plunge. Also, they should look only for properties that are ready and available for possession,” said an analyst of a domestic brokerage.

Vikas Oberoi, managing director of Mumbai-based developer Oberoi Constructions, agrees. “Buyers should be wary of under-construction projects because developers who are overleveraged will not be able to complete their projects. So a buyer should look at a developer’s past projects. At these times, it’s all the more important for people to be careful about where they invest,” he said.

And though the slump is pinching, consolidation in the industry is not seen coming. An analyst said, “Even if a developer gets land at a discount of 35-45%, he will not buy it to save money for construction. Those who haven’t seen free cash flows in the last 6-8 months will halt their launches and sit tight till the tides turn in next 18-24 months.”

Time reports on the Indian realty meltdown

I guess to all the ostriches, this article is one more nail in the coffin. Drop prices 30-40% or go bankrupt, seems to the mantra come Janurary. The only hope is the centuries old tradition of praying to Goddess Lakshmi for wealth and prosperity. In the Indian secnario, the developers who are leveraged to the hilt are the sub-prime of India.

Mirroring the US, India's Real Estate Sector Melts Down
By Madhur Singh / New Delhi Monday, Oct. 20, 2008
The new moon of the lunar month of Kartika marks Diwali, the Indian festival of lights, when Hindus across the country worship the goddess of wealth, Lakshmi. But divinities know full well the laws that govern finance and Lakshmi may not be a little tight-fisted about circulating her riches amid the ongoing global credit crunch.
Indian tradition decrees that it is auspicious to make purchases during the days leading up to Diwali — which falls in October or November. With faith meshing so effortlessly with commerce, the season sees sellers, advertisers and marketers urging the devout to spend money with a religious fervor, hawking everything from chocolates and consumer durables to gold and houses. Buying a home is considered especially propitious. What better way to welcome the goddess of wealth into one's life than by inviting Lakshmi into one's new abode? So much so that the period from just before Diwali through March is usually a bonanza for the real estate industry: usually 70% of the annual business is conducted at this time.
Not this year. With just about a week to go until Diwali, the mood is decidedly downbeat. The demon of impending economic doom refuses to die, and as tightened liquidity makes people put off larger purchases, the real estate sector is facing the worst attack. "This time last year, I was selling 10 to 12 properties every day," says Alok Gupta, who runs Advanced Real Estate in the New Delhi suburb of Noida. "This time, I haven't sold a single property all month!"
Considered the barometer of economic growth, the real estate sector in India has grown 30% to 35% during the last five years, reflecting the rapidly-increasing demand for office, commercial and industrial space, as well as bigger homes now considered within the range of India's prospering working classes. But the economic juggernaut has been slowing since earlier this year due to double-digit inflation, a severe liquidity crunch as a fallout of the U.S. sub-prime crisis, and now, the possibility of economic activity shrinking as part of a global slowdown. The country's growth estimates of 9% at the beginning of the year have been revised to well below 7%, and the effect is directly visible on the realty sector. "No one's buying any more," says Ashwani Shukla of New Delhi-based Triveni Associates, "Two years ago, 25-year-olds earning fat pay packets from [multinational corporations] were buying high-end apartments. Now, there are no takers for flats selling at 20% markdowns. Estate agents are finding it difficult to even meet daily overheads."
Shukla himself has branched out of real estate and started selling insurance six months back, "to pay the bills." According to various estimates, sales in cities like Mumbai and Chennai are down 30% to 40%. Hoping to induce buyers at Diwali, realtors are advertising cash discounts of 5% to 10% for down payments, and as much as 25% discounts if buyers are willing to wait two to three years before taking possession of the property. "But there is no liquidity with the end user," says Arvind Nandan, director of consultancy at real-estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield India, "Home-loan rates have hit the roof, and people's investments have lost value at the stock market. No one has the money to buy."
Shukla says if the situation does not improve, there could be distress sales within the next six months. The realty sector was heading for a cyclical slowdown even before the current economic slump. Over the last few years, increasing demand had pushed up prices, with speculators jumping in to further inflate the market. Eventually inventory piled up when buyers refused to pay unrealistically high prices. "So many transactions were taking place between speculators and investors that no one bothered to find out what the end-user, the family who would eventually live in the house, would be willing and able to pay," Shukla says. And those prospective home owners are the biggest target of India's real estate industry: almost 80% of real estate developed in the country is residential space.
This all comes at the worst possible time. Even as buyers refused to bite, inflation passed into double digits in June this year, raising prices of construction material. Realtors overran their budgets and projects stalled, leaving skeletal structures dotting the landscape across big and small cities all over the country. Then came the liquidity squeeze as the government sponged away cash from the system to control inflation. Home loan rates went from about 7% to over 12%. People who bought struggled to pay, and potential buyers kept away.
Realtors like Shukla and Gupta may have little reason to light firecrackers this Diwali, but their prayers to Lakshmi, the Goddess of Wealth, will definitely be more fervent, especially as experts predict things will get worse before they get any better. "This was a much-needed correction," says Nandan of Cushman & Wakefield India, "And it isn't complete yet. I expect the market to go down further, and it's hard to say when the recovery will begin."
Yet, no one is entirely pessimistic. Experts and industry insiders believe once the storm blows over, demand is bound to rise back up for the same reasons it did last time — a large, young workforce; gradual but consistent liberalization reforms; and a high rate of consumer and private sector savings. "The silver lining is that once this phase ends, land and property prices will be corrected to rational levels, speculators will be out, and the sector will have stronger fundamentals," says Shukla. If everyone's prayers go right, the goddess will eventually be propitiated and her blessings will issue forth once more.

Monday, October 20, 2008

State of Denial

Mint has a couple of good articles on the denial of the Indian builders to accept the reality of a slowdown. The Sensex has crashed 50%, midcaps 60%, small caps 70% but India real estate developers think that the word correction applies to everyone but them. Like Marie Antonette said "If you don't have bread, eat cake" the Raheja's are pricing villas for 6crores. God save the ostriches. The articles are below
Mumbai: Bhav gira kya (Has the price fallen)?” the prospective buyer asked.
“Bhav chada hi nahin girne ke liye (It needs to rise before it can fall),” came the stoic response from across the counter from the Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd, or HDIL, representative.
That exchange more or less sums up the current dynamic between discount-seeking buyers and reduction-resistant sellers in India’s real estate market, a chasm that was apparent at Property 2008, the 13th real estate and housing finance exhibition, a four-day event held last fortnight at the Bandra-Kurla complex in Mumbai.
A dozen signboards outside the site of the expo screamed, “Take the right decision. Buy now”, but buyers seemed indifferent to that message, even though they flocked to the exhibition in droves on Saturday.
Even as analysts caution that the days to come will be critical for developers as their inventory of unsold houses increases, real estate firms put on their bravest faces at the exhibition and said they wouldn’t consider reducing prices.
Under pressure: Real estate development in the country, including housing projects such as this one in Ghaziabad, is heavily dependent on population migration due to rapid urban growth. Harikrishna Katragadda / Mint
Everyone has got it wrong, they insist. “Make up your mind, this is the right time. The economic cycle is maturing and, by January next year, apartment prices will go up,” said Vinod Manwani, marketing head at the Nahar group, which is developing more than 100 acres in the heart of Mumbai, near Powai lake.
Analysts say real estate firms aren’t helping themselves with this attitude.
“The current slowdown in demand for realty, coupled with declining internal accruals and reduced funding options, exposes them (real estate firms) to the downside of this aggressive strategy; there are large amounts of debt already on their balance sheets and, (with) external funds increasingly hard to come by, we foresee delays on their many ongoing and planned real estate projects, thereby leading to the possibility of sale of projects or even enterprises,” said Akash Deep Jyoti, head of corporate and government ratings at Crisil Ltd, a Standard and Poor’s company.
A report in Monday’s The Economic Times said banks and finance companies have begun pushing developers to sell cheap.
To make matters worse, many companies have borrowed from outside the banking system at much higher rates.
The best way out is for them to sell assets and offload completed projects, said Jyoti.
Builders also need to get realistic on pricing, as a significant correction is yet to happen, added Jyoti.
Bangalore: Real estate entrepreneur Vijay Raheja has lined up a raft of projects in Mumbai and Bangalore for the next six months to a year—braving a slump in the property market after splitting the family business with his brother in July—and started with a development targeted at the rich. His company, V Raheja Design Construction launched its first project post the split on Dussehra—the Verena luxury villas spread over five acres in east Bangalore’s Whitefield neighbourhood where each unit has been priced at Rs6 crore. Exclusive: V Raheja Design took over construction of the new JW Marriott hotel at UB City in Bangalore in July. Hemant Mishra / Mint“There are 40 villas, and all will be sold by invitation. Other residential and commercial projects will be launched gradually,” said a senior official at the company who manages the Bangalore operations, but did not want to be identified. Raheja is working on projects including an IT park, Gigaplex, a residential project, Buena Vista, and a commercial property, Raheja Chambers, in the city. In Mumbai, an information technology park is under construction. Raheja and his younger brother, Deepak, split the 56-year-old B Raheja Builders between themselves and founded their own companies, ‘Mint’ reported on 7 July. The properties and projects of B Raheja Builders were divided between the brothers, with V Raheja Design taking over the construction of the new JW Marriott hotel at UB City in Bangalore. “A Rs6 crore villa is overpriced where builders are unable to sell Rs3 crore houses in the same area,” Naresh Dandapat, regional director (south) at property consultancy Knight Frank India, said of the Verena villa project. But the official defended the pricing, saying, “They are exclusive and contemporary, and have been priced accordingly.” Analysts say builders need to get realistic about pricing, sell assets and offload finished projects

Friday, October 17, 2008

Revisiting the first post of this blog

Rewiding almost 3 years into the past, I found my original post. Most of the observations made then have been vindicated by the turn of events. Three years later, the stock market is up 10% and looks very likely to go below 9k in the following weeks, thereby wiping gains for 3 years. The FII's have taken the Indian investor for a ride down a a tunnel of hell. As everyone reads the bad news, I'm thinking of what could be good prices to pay for apts in the year ahead ? Anything over 3000 is steep by any standards. Black money can chase other black money, however loans are in short supply so they cannot chase other loans. If a black money operator buys an apt paying 1cr, immediately the Income Tax folks will get alerted and will be on his case. The only place where they can hide money is to buy land/plots where there is a substantial portion in black. As state governments keep raising gudiance value, this avenue is closing as well. In Chennai the guidance of OMR road is up 10 times over the past 3 years. Hence speculation here attracts the Income tax bugs. The only avenue black money folks have is to fund builders, however given the state of the loan market, they will be unwilling to do so. The goal of every black money operator is to convert the black to white, but as avenues for the conversion evaporate due to increasing risk, storing black money under the matteress or in hidden cabinets seems to the only way. Any builder who is looking for money is paying 30% interest, this used to be the case in 2003. So the market is dull, people have lost money in the market upto 80% in many cases. How long can 10000 per sq/ft hold ?
and I just got this in the mail and couldn't come at a better time. A drop of 40% from the existing rates, However to take the risk of execution during a time of financial crisis is foolhardy. We will see these prices for ready to occupy apts soon.

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Friday, December 09, 2005
Asset Bubble or not ?
As the Indian economy grew by 8% as stated by the finance minster(12/9/2005), the sensex hit an all time high of 9057 and housing prices have continued to skyrocket in major metro areas.

One of the worrisome aspects of this growth is that low interest rates have helped companies in BIFR(chapter 11 for India) to come back with healthy balance sheets specifically due to debt-refinancing. (18% to 11%). The productivity growth or job growth is not wholly responsible for the growth. Also many of these restructured companies might pay themselves dividends or buy back shares thereby increasing the wealth of the directors, and owners and thus balloning the stock market beyond fundamental basis.

The white collar worker has to deal with the consequences of this semi-illusionary growth in the form of increasing property prices (10-20% year-over-year) and is borrowing heavily thanks to low interest rates.

As property prices push higher, the risk of default of these small apt buyers increases as global interest rates rise, energy prices push higher , inflation increases and the rupee devalues as the external debt mounts rapidly

Most Indians in the market for a apartment now have never experienced a downturn in the economy so they might find themselves highly shafted if they over-leverage themselves on the loans as well as the floating interest rates.

Unfortunately unlike the developed west , India has no reliable source of data available for real estate prices and transactions and most prices are rigged by a cartel of builders. I'm also skeptical of the media in reporting the truth since they too dont have any reliable data to go from and finally real estate agents, the less said about them the better.

This blog attempts to understand area development and price movements and if people contribute uncover hidden unsold inventory. I'll post information about Mumbai/Pune/Bangalore over which I can get anecdotal evidence or as I browse the news papers and talk to real-estate agents and builders. All articles and comments are welcome. I'll be the moderator of the comments so that the spammers dont take over.

This blog is inspired from a similar blog http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/ which is now a reliable source of data for various US housing markets.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Equity Funds attacked by bears




I was curious to see what the year to date performance could be on mutual funds on 10/15/2008 and here is the snapshot of the query. Not one diversified equity fund has shown any gains over the past 1 year. Attached is the picture which says it all. You can run other queries on the Mutual fund screener tool and find out the top losers over the past year or two but the amount of money lost this year is over 30% so all the gains made over the 3 year horizon are wiped out in half. If someone had put the same amount of money in a fixed deposit, they wouldn't have done too bad. The FII's have scooted with the gains and the brokerages have to be squarely blamed for deceiving the common Indian investor of their life savings.


Sunday, October 12, 2008

Run on FMP's causing panic

This could be India's subprime and credit crisis which will affect the realty industry the most.

Sucheta Dalal & Debashis Basu say that withdrawals from Fixed Maturity Plans can turn into a huge problem

A full blown panic in the real estate and financial services sectors has led to the withdrawal of nearly Rs 30,000 crore from Fixed Maturity Plans of Mutual Funds in the past week alone. These funds are meeting all redemption demands by borrowing money at high rates of 20% to 24%. This may end up destroying parts of their corpus and may lead to losses for retail investors. Retail investors have (as usual) foolishly remained invested in FMPs lured by their pitch which touted them ‘safer than fixed deposits and offering higher returns and lower taxes’, on the assurance of ‘indicative’ returns, although MoneyLIFE magazine (FMPs Lose Shine) had repeatedly pointed out that the risks of FDs and FMPs are so vastly different that comparing them are like comparing oranges and apples. FMPs may end up being like the unregulated Overseas Corporate Bodies of the previous market decline. Someone needs to urgently look at what is going on inside them. Unfortunately, SEBI does not even gather data about the FMPs issued by mutual funds or the quality of securities in them.

The other problem today is super-liquid schemes that invest in the call money market. There was no regulatory oversight on these schemes and they have been allowed not to mark their investment to market and could claim to hold them to maturity even when it was a one-year paper. This has created a very dangerous situation today.

Finance and realty companies are the weakest link in the chain. Many FMPs have subscribed to short term AAA rated paper of finance and realty companies. The credit rating of these papers now looks doubtful. One finance company (belonging to the bluest of the blue chip business house whose previous finance arm was deeply involved in the 2001 scam), has also renewed its paper at an exorbitant rate of 32%.

The smarter, corporate investors are taking no chances and pulling out funds and exacerbating the salutation leading to panic. No regulator has bothered to collect data on the investment pattern of FMPs and liquid schemes and keep tabs on it. As result, the systemic risk posed by the redemption runs on these schemes and the shaky underlying debt securities in their portfolio is suddenly upon us and nobody knows whether the RBI should look into it or SEBI or both. Mutual funds that are borrowing to meet redemption are refusing to utilise their bank credit for this emergency, because they feel that it will only put information in the public domain and cause a run on the fund.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Bldrs tread cautiously on realty street

Bldrs tread cautiously on realty street
Nauzer Bharucha | TNN

Mumbai: Some of the tastefully done-up stalls at the property exhibition at Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) are as large as one-bedroom apartments. Smart marketing girls move around with glazed brochures, pitching upcoming residential projects to prospective home buyers.
In the adjoining seminar hall, there is much bonhomie among the assembled builders, gorging on a lavish vegetarian spread. To many, it may seem to be business as usual for Mumbai’s property czars. But behind the broad smiles is a growing concern about the stormy days ahead.
The construction industry is suddenly down in the dumps and builders are still unwilling to say when they will relent and reduce prices. But across the city, massive cranes, which were once swinging at frenzied pace, have slowed down considerably.
“Developers have drastically cut down work on their under-construction projects. For instance, if a builder was laying one slab a month, the pace has slowed down to one slab in three months. When flats are no longer selling as briskly as they used to, there is little point in speeding up construction work,’’ a leading builder confessed privately to this newspaper recently.
Some of them are also believed to have postponed launching new projects. Banks and financial institutions have also turned on the screws. A couple of years ago, they stopped lending money to builders for land acquisition. Now, even loans for construction has virtually come to a halt since the past three months, industry sources said. “Banks have become extremely choosy about lending money to builders,’’ they said.
In the residential segment, prices in some of the upscale projects coming up in Malad and Goregaon are in the range of Rs 9,000 to Rs 10,500 a sq ft. In Juhu, the rate is anywhere between Rs 15,000 a sq ft to Rs 21,000 a sq ft in upcoming projects. In south Mumbai, there is an eyeball to eyeball confrontation between buyers and sellers of premium apartments. “The seller is still adamant and refuses to lower the price, while the buyer is still not falling for it. In the past six months, the same flats which were put up for sale are still circulating in the market,’’ said a CEO of a real estate company, not wishing to be identified.
At Pedder Road, a builder who has just finished an upscale apartment block, is finding no takers. “He has been demanding a whopping Rs 80 crore for each apartment, which is spread over 8,000 sq ft super built up area. Not a single unit has been sold at this price,’’ said market sources.
“Confronted by a bleak scenario, builders are twiddling their thumbs and waiting for the real estate market to revive,’’ said an insider. A handful of developers who are sitting on large chunks of land since many years, and who have little exposure to banks, are in a comfortable position at present. The rest are finding the going tough while some who had purchased land at unrealistically high rates, are finding the noose tightening.
According to the market grapevine, the brother of a prominent developer from the eastern suburbs, who has branched out on his own now, is stuck after a US-based bank allegedly stopped funding his projects in Hyderabad and Chennai. Another developer with residential projects in Goregaon, Virar and Thane finds himself pushed into a corner after taking a Rs 100 crore loan from a Kutchi industrialist at hefty interest rate of over 40%.
One builder, who shook the property market last year after he paid a phenomenallyhigh price for a plot in BKC, is also believed to be now on the edge. “His investors are breathing down his neck and even the nationalised bank which funded him, now wants its money back. His desperation is now evident because he has started offering brokers a 4% brokerage for getting clients,’’ said sources.
In the commercial segment, the lease rental prices in BKC has come down from an average of Rs 450 a sq ft to Rs 325-Rs 350 a sq ft over the past three months, it is learnt. “Developers setting up IT parks are also getting worried as they are not getting the price they were expecting,’’ said a broker.
According to housing experts, about $4 billion has been pumped into the Indian real estate market by FIIs and venture capital funds. Another $12 to $14 billion was to flow in within the next 18 months. This will not come any more.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Pune : Kondwa gets a bad name

With prices over 4000 per sq/ft here on the outskirts of Pune, Kondwa seems to be the new terror hub

Kondhwa: Pune's emerging terror nest
8 Oct 2008, 0344 hrs IST,TNN

PUNE: The arrests of four suspected Indian Mujahideen (IM) members from the Kondhwa area of Pune and the revelation that they had used a plush fla
t at Ashoka Mews to fine-tune their plans to send terror emails and hack into WiFi networks has left local residents shocked.

"This is unfortunate. We are feeling insecure. This is giving a bad name to the entire Kondhwa area," said B Nair, a senior citizen who stays in a building near Ashoka Mews, a complex which houses 12 buildings and 28 row houses.

Another resident, Shrilekha Menon, said that she had purchased a flat in Kondhwa three years ago as the area was peaceful then. "But now we are feeling uncomfortable and may shift," she said.

Her fears are not unwarranted. This is the second time in the last couple of months that the police have arrested suspects from Kondhwa for their alleged terror links. On August 16, one of the three youths picked up by the Anti-Terrorism Squad was from Kondhwa. Police have questioned several others in the area.

In August, Pune police commissioner Satyapal Singh had said that the number of suspected Simi activists in the city had increased from 47 to 300. Though Singh had not revealed the pockets and areas from where these activists were thought to operate, police sources said that a majority of them were located in Kondhwa.

"We are concerned by this grouping of Simi activists in one locality. Earlier, they were scattered at Kasewadi, Bhavani Peth and Kondhwa. Now a majority of them have shifted their base to Kondhwa," said a senior police officer.

The officer said that there could be several reasons, including cheaper rentals and, until recently, weaker surveillance.

Speaking to TOI on Monday, deputy commissioner of police (DCP) Jalindar Supekar (zone IV) said that two special teams comprising 10 policemen each from the Kondhwa and Hadapsar police stations have been formed to look for suspected Simi activists taking shelter in places like Kondhwa.

The teams, formed three days ago, are headed by senior police inspector R B Gaikar, who is in charge of the Kondhwa police station. The activities of the teams, which started functioning from Sunday evening, will be supervised by Supekar and assistant commissioner of police (ACP) Ramesh Biwal (Wanowrie division).

According to Supekar, the team has been given a special task of identifying suspected Simi activists, keeping a tab on their movements and collecting intelligence.

Biwal confirmed that the Mumbai crime branch and Bangalore police had earlier visited Kondhwa for questioning suspected SIMI activists, but he claimed that the outcome of the interrogation was not known because no information was shared with the city police.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Shah Rukh glamor doomed in the Gulf

Shah Rukh Khan or SRK needs to start reading this blog :). Sabbal Seshu and Ashish will get him black money rich clients for his high end gulf properties. Alas Mr SRK you might be a good businessman with Knight Riders and IPL, however this one is destined to end up 'deserted'.

Bollywood Star Hopes Glamour Will Rub Off on Gulf Properties

By Ayesha Daya
Enlarge Image/Details

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shah Rukh Khan, the star of Bollywood hits such as ``Om Shanti Om'' and ``Chak De India,'' hopes his glamour will rub off on the real-estate fortunes of a little-known Gulf emirate.

Khan will help Ras Al Khaimah, a rocky outcrop of 168 square kilometers (65 square miles) and 250,000 people, to sell an 8 billion-dirham ($2.2 billion) beachfront development that will include an underwater disco and lounge. He presented the project, called Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard, in Dubai on Oct 5.

``I'm a believer in a place where things grow fast,'' Khan, who has visited Ras Al Khaimah only once, said in an interview after the briefing. Khan, 42, has endorsed products ranging from PepsiCo Inc. soft drinks to Hyundai Motor Co. cars.

Ras Al Khaimah, the most northerly of the seven sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates, aims to emulate Dubai, whose booming property market has attracted endorsements from celebrities including Brad Pitt and Boris Becker. The developer, TSA Group, is trying to lure foreign investors including Khan's fans from the Indian diaspora.

As oil and gas reserves dwindle, the emirate hopes tourism will generate independent sources of income and supplement contributions from hydrocarbon-rich Abu Dhabi that provide basic infrastructure, power and public services.

The Shah Rukh Khan Boulevard will be built on the man-made Dana Island that is being developed by the government's real estate unit Rakeen. The Boulevard will comprise townhouses and ten towers spread across an area of 600,000 square feet and is due to be completed in 2012.

Design Ideas

Khan has offered design ideas for the project, such as a glass gate at the entrance and big screens on the beach where people can watch movies, besides the underwater attractions.

``For me, this is the first step to have the freedom to express myself in stone,'' said Khan, who isn't planning any other developments. The Mumbai-based actor will start filming ``My Name is Khan'' on Dec. 15.

Khan said the project won't be hampered by a slump in the local real estate market brought on by the global financial crisis and the prospect of a worldwide recession. ``This is not the first time I'm experiencing recessions,'' the actor said, adding that the project won't be ready for another five years.

In Dubai, Brad Pitt is helping to design an 800-room hotel and resort with Zabeel Properties, while towers have been named after former Wimbledon tennis champion Boris Becker and ex-Formula One driver Michael Schumacher.

Dubai's other projects include a 1-kilometer-tall tower and surrounding developments that will cost about $40 billion, a 300- island project in the shape of continents called The World, and the world's biggest mall.

Dubai Real Estate

Home prices in Dubai, the second-biggest of the country's emirates after Abu Dhabi, are likely to remain little-changed until 2010 after five years of gains, Colliers CRE Plc said in a report Oct. 5. Emaar Properties PJSC, the Middle East's biggest publicly traded real-estate company, lost the most since 2000 on Oct. 5 on concern that the U.S. bank bailout won't prevent the global credit crisis from reaching Dubai.

``There is very little to go on with regards to the fundamentals behind the Ras Al Khaimah market,'' said Robert McKinnon, managing director of equity research at Al Mal Capital PSC. ``But I do expect it would correct along with the rest of the U.A.E.'' if this happens.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Buy your house - next year!!!

Since when did we start seeing these headlines. Now the original prophecy laid out in my original postings of the collapse of WAMU, Wachovia has come true, what do we expect next.
Based on today's 777 point drop in the DOW, I would expect the Sensex to hit 8000 fairly soon. We are at 12500 and the journey to 8000 should be swift and painless. Mumbai as a property market is dead. I think prices can easily drop 50% and rentals down 60-70%. Any apt which is quoting over 5k per sq/ft is not viable. If the developers have paid over 5k as their acquisition cost, they are the sub-prime of India. They have borrowed funds to acquire sub-prime assets and they will have to pay the price. Nobody in the right mind has 1cr to buy an apt in Mumbai, let alone other cities. I think the paradigm "Real estate never goes down in Mumbai" is now dead. Real estate has collapsed under the weight of the Sub-prime and the flow of cheap money, funded by unscruplous bankers. All the I-Bankers buying properties of 4-12 crores better find ways to find their purchases. The party is over, and the drunks are straggeling to get home. The Rahejas and the Hirnandani's now have to go back to the common people who were priced out of the purchase and if they don't drop prices, they can keep their apartments for themselves and their relatives or friends. With the implosion of the US banks, credit is weak. Amercians with retirement plans funded over the past 20 years are now bailing out to the safety of money market funds. How does Mumbai survive this huge gigantic iceberg. The real estate buildings spring up all over Mumbai will collapse like the Titantic and will remain unfinished if they are not sold at below market rates. Witht he media also harping on the slowdown, expect everyone except the diehard optimist, like Realtly rider and Ashish to keep buying properties and these folks deserve to have their money parted for a fool and his money will soon be parted. For the rest, lets keep watching the party unwind. It was a great run and an even greater drop. Gravity rules.
The time for buying in projects breaking ground or just starting has ended. With the collapse of credit, there is no way to know if projects will be completed and bills paid. This happened in the 80's where there were many unfinished buildings since the developer ran out of money. Whenever the time comes to buy, sometime next year and prices have fallen steeply, it is best to buy an property which is ready or almost ready. Project execution risk has too be taken out of the equation. With so many developers folding only the biggest and ones with deep pockets will survive. Everyone else will be road kill. As of now in terms of banks, there are only 4 major banks left in the US, Bank of Amercia, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup. Citigroup had to be bailed out by the Arabs, so what is the guarantee that a company like ABC Constructions will survive in a fastly deteriorating market
DNA India reports.
A survey of brokers shows that enquiries to buy homes have fallen, with Mumbai registering a 90% drop. Brokers expect prices to drop soon.

The word is out on the streets. About 60 per cent of brokers expect prices in the Mumbai island city and up to Borivili to come down in the next year. Pranay Vakil, chairman of Knight Frank, global property, says he is also concerned about the volumes, which currently are 10 per cent of the sales recorded last year in Mumbai alone. “Prices are a function of demand and supply. But if volumes do not sustain, the problem will be greater and will bring the industry to a halt. Currently, only long term investors who have seen the ups and downs in the market are holding on.”

According to a pan-India survey of local brokers on the residential property market carried out by Edelweiss, global research analysts, almost 80 per cent of brokers across India have witnessed a reduction in enquiries over the past month and about 90 per cent of brokers in Mumbai have seen a drop in transactions over the past one month.

Hundred brokers in 20 micro-markets like Bandra-Borivili, Mulund-Thane, Gurgaon, Noida, Whitefield-Marathalli, Annanagar in the cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai were polled.

According to Vakil, in order to increase volumes, developers will now cut down on quality in big projects. “In a total of 10 buildings, two will maintain high quality at a high rate, but in two he might offer low quality tiling in bathrooms and use it as an excuse to reduce his prices,” he says.

According to property experts, volume is driven by sentiment. If a buyer is sure of his ability to retain a job — essential to maintain a bank loan — he will go ahead and borrow money to buy a flat. “The situation is rather flexible. Apart from high property prices, high interest rates have cast a big question on the affordability of a flat purchaser these days,” said an equity analyst.

That the lack of demand and growing liquidity crises has developers worried was obvious at an informal meeting of 35-odd developers at a suburban five-star in Mumbai recently. With banks like Bank of Baroda, Bank of India recently announcing that they will not lend money against property, developers are worried about how to source funds for their projects. “The tightening money market has made IPOs redundant.

Venture capital funds have stopped lending and developers do not want to go to money lenders because of high interest rates of about 25 to 30 per cent. So, the only option is to either start selling faster by reducing rates (something they do not want to do) or curtail production which many of them have already started doing,” said a property consultant with a global real estate major.
According to Anuj Puri, managing director of Jones Lang Lasalle Meghraj, a global real estate firm, “Developers will have to reduce their prices if they have to beef up their quantum. I believe there is still a lot of depth in the market but at the right price. The faster the developers understand it, the better it will be for all concerned.”

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Lehman bankruptcy hits Indian developers

DNA reports
Unitech’ll miss crucial cash
MUMBAI: The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world’s fourth-largest investment bank, has left some Indian real estate developers gasping.

Unitech Ltd, India’s second-largest developer by market capitalisation, had received Rs 740 crore from Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners (REP) for its mixed use development project at Santacruz in Mumbai just two months ago on July 17.
That day, Unitech said Lehman will invest about $175 million (Rs 740 crore) and will acquire a 50% stake in the initial phase of a project on the Western Express Highway in Mumbai.
This initial phase entails development of 1 million sq ft of office space out of a total developable area of 18 million sq ft.
“Lehman and the Western Express JV will each contribute 50% of the construction costs,” Unitech said.
The Western Express JV meant Unitech and its local partner Rohan Developers.
A Unitech spokesperson said the company “has already received the $175 million in July, so there is no problem”.
The construction cost for the first phase of the project is pegged at Rs 300 crore.
As per their stake equation, Lehman has to invest Rs 150 crore but hasn’t to date, according to sources familiar with the development.
Also Unitech was expecting further investments from Lehman Bros for the same project and its Worli project also.
Unitech was expecting an additional Rs 500 crore from Lehman including for the Worli project.

The Ashok Piramal-backed Mumbai-based realty major, Peninsula Land Ltd, had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Lehman whereby the US-based company was to invest $125 million or Rs 576 crore in its projects for minority stakes.
The first tranche had to come for the Hyderabad project where Peninsula is developing an integrated township and IT Park on a 31-acre plot bought from Rallis India.
To a query by DNA Money on the investment status, Peninsula said: “The investment for Hyderabad would come once we start the construction … which would begin in the third quarter this year.”
The company said it would not be affected because most of the money was raised from non-Lehman sources.
Peninsula Land has earmarked Rs 2,500-3,000 crore for land acquisition in the next three to five years.
The investment was to come from Lehman and some of Peninsula’s domestic and offshore funds. But DLF, India’s largest developer, may be thanking its stars.
That’s because Lehman has already paid $200 million or Rs 921 crore to DLF Assets Ltd, a subsidiary.
“We have already received the payments so we are not facing any trouble,” a DLF spokesperson told DNA Money.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Lehman fall may deepen Indian realtors' credit woes

Enuff said

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy is likely to cost Indian real estate dear. It may impact the financial major’s existing investments worth $500 million in realty firms, including DLF and Unitech, besides drying up another $500-million worth of potential investment which was expected to flow into Unitech’s Mumbai projects.

The news of Lehman’s collapse brought the BSE realty index down by 7.65% on Monday, while the benchmark Sensex declined 3.35%. Both DLF and Unitech fell 7.5%.

Lehman’s fall signals a deepening of credit crisis for Indian developers, who have lately been battling falling sales, rising cost of construction and tightening credit. It is expected that the US-based firm is likely to go for a fire sale of its assets.

The financial services major was very bullish on India and was among the active investors in Indian real estate. Early this year, it had leased out an office space in Mumbai paying Rs 1 crore per month as rental. This would divert a part of fresh funds seeking to invest in Indian realty.


This is because global fund houses have country-allocations. And as they buyout Lehman’s stake in some of the Indian assets, they will end up diverting some of the fresh funds-in-hand to existing assets rather than investing in new projects.

“Lehman’s departure will impact future cash flows of real estate companies. In a market situation like today’s, it will be all the more difficult for the firms to raise funds,” says Karvy Stock Broking vice-president Ambareesh Baliga.

Lehman invested $200 million in DLF promoter group company DLF Assets last year and bought 50% stake in Unitech’s Mumbai project for $175 million a few months ago. It had also invested $80 million in Bangalore-based SEZ Gandhi City and was likely to hike its share to $300 million.

Lehman’s other investments include a 40% stake in an IT park project of Peninsula Land in Hyderabad for an initial investment of Rs 50 crore. It had also teamed up with Mumbai-based developer HDIL to bid for the redevelopment of Asia’s largest slum Dharavi.

Wherever the developers had received fund, they are safe. But where the funds are yet to come, the developers could get stuck. Some analysts say a distress sale by Lehman will impact the valuation of existing projects.

DLF CFO Ramesh Sanka had earlier told ET that Lehman’s sale of investments in DAL would not impact DAL’s valuation. Unitech MD Sanjay Chandra said that his company had already received funds. So, the company won’t get impacted by Lehman’s bankruptcy.

Some industry executives say that FDI norms of a three-year lock-in period may prevent Lehman from making an immediate sale. But analysts argue that the lock-in period in case of bankruptcy may not hold.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Real estate developers caught in downturn

DNA has a article on the pithfalls of the use of leverage in the real estate business. Expect rapid unwinding in Mumbai and land prices in developing areas of all cities in Mumbai. The wind below the PE wings have been taken out. With the collapse of Lehman, Fannie, Freedie and impending doom of Washington Mutual and Wachovia, we are in a very deep downturn. I think Mumbai prices will collapse 50% under these circumstances. Antything over 5-6k per sq/ft is not capable of being repaid using a loan based on Indian salaries. so prices have to drop to these levels whether funded by black, white or yellow money. If prices don't drop there will be zero buyers for all expensive properties owned by builders. They can keep it and rent it out for 20-30k a month. If the PE guy comes callingthey better have a good way to repay their debt, maybe by raising money on the black market at 4% a month

Increase in interest rates, private equity players’ demand for assured returns hit realtors, delay project launch
MUMBAI: Increase in interest rates and demand from private equity firms for assured returns have landed a double whammy on realtors: a severe liquidity crunch that’s delaying projects and launches; and, two, narrowed fund-raising avenues.

Till some time back, developers preferred to invest money in one project at a time. So, if a realtor injected Rs 1,000 crore into a project, he would wait for free cash flows to come in before announcing the next project.

But the realty boom of the last two years saw many developers aggressively announcing multiple projects.

As a result, over 1,000 million sq ft was earmarked for development with a fund requirement of Rs 205,400 crore over five years.

Spurring their aggression was the entry of private equity investors, who invested heavily discounting the risks.

When the market slumped this year, PEs turned chary of investing so started demanding assured returns.

For realtors, this meant funds wouldn’t come as easily as they used to.
Pankaj Jaju, head of the real estate practice at Enam Securities, said deferred cash flows are affecting the rate of return on projects.
“And there is more pain in store as capital values are expected to correct across markets and input costs have increased, which would lead to contracted margins of the developers,” Jaju said.
Another action that lead to funds crunch is that developers who had easy access to liquidity started jumping the gun when it came to projects.
In a recent report, Enam elucidated how this happened and who is paying for the sins.

Earlier, if a realtor had two projects in hand —- say A and B —- worth Rs 1,000 crore under development, he would invest the entire amount in the first project, complete it and after getting returns on A, and then invest in B.

With PEs coming in, builders began splitting the Rs 1,000 crore into two equal chunks, investing in both A and B at the same time and expecting PEs to contribute 50% of the net asset value (NAV) of the project (or half of Rs 1,500 crore).
The real estate company having Projects A and B first starts executing Project A by investing Rs 500 crore in a special purpose vehicle (SPV).
The PE investor brings in 50% of the project NAV - Rs 750 crore, into the company, taking the total equity capital to Rs 1,250 crore.
A debt to equity ratio of 1:1 meant the builder is able to raise debt worth Rs 1,250 crore. Thus the total investment in the project becomes Rs 2,500 crore.
With the project cost at Rs 2,000 crore, the company’s estimated free cash flow stands at Rs 500 crore at the end of the first project.
This Rs 500 crore is invested in Project B, which is a bigger project with a bigger project NAV. The same procedure of bringing in a PE investor etc is again followed with Project B. The real estate company thus ends up with an estimated free cash flow of Rs 1,000 crore.

But trouble came when the estimated free cash flow didn’t arrive because construction work started getting delayed, land acquisition became a problem and costs shot up by more than 50% of estimates.
The crunch is affecting realtors who have stretched their balance sheets thus, and did not achieve financial closure for projects.
The exit of investors, who were one of the biggest sources of working capital for realtors, landed another blow.

Realtors therefore sought quicker rotation of capital by putting money into high-earning activities of land banking, which left many a developer in the lurch.
Things have come to such a pass, says the Enam presentation, that developers are pitching projects against each other at lower costs to gain sales volumes and earn much-required cash to resolve working capital issues.
“No heed was paid to real estate cyclicality, slowing demand or aggressive execution,” the report said.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Battle for Mumbai's skies set to begin

Times of India reports

Mumbai: The skyline of congested areas in Mumbai like Girgaum, Grant Road, Bhuleshwar Nagpada and Parel could soon be filled with thousands of skyscrapers sprouting from every nook and corner, thanks to Thursday’s supreme court ruling.
The order comes as a major bonanza for builders because it once again allows them virtually unlimited floor space index (FSI) for redeveloping old, mainly pre-1940 cessed buildings in the island city. In 2005, the Bombay high court, which had admitted a PIL filed by some prominent Mumbaikars, had restricted this use of unlimited FSI on the grounds that it was leading to haphazard and unabated construction activity. The high court had observed that this rule had led to ‘subversion of urban planning’.
“Although the supreme court ruling will facilitate redevelopment of old and dilapidated cessed buildings, it will put pressure on civic infrastructure,” said a worried municipal commissioner Jairaj Phatak. However, he was confident that the island city will be able to cope up with this construction spree if the redevelopment is carried out in a proper manner.
When old buildings are torn down and rebuilt into towers, the space between two skyscrapers could be as little as five feet or even less. Mumbai’s development control rule 33 (7), which pertains to the redevelopment of cessed properties, gives sweeping powers to the municipal commissioner to relax the mandatory open spaces surrounding a building to five feet.
In congested Girgaum, opposite the Harkisondas hospital, a 38-storey tower is virtually kissing another 22-storey high rise next to it. In Nana Chowk, a pencil thin skyscraper has cropped up almost touching the adjacent building.
Over the past decade, many such residential towers as high as 30-40 floors have started springing up in areas like Girgaum, Nana Chowk and Grant Road where the civic infrastructure is already in poor shape. In fact, Mumbai’s tallest residential building, the 45-storey Shreepati Arcade at Nana Chowk, was redeveloped under rule 33 (7).
On Thursday, property redeveloper Pujit Agarwal of Orbit Corporation was ecstatic as several hundred redevelopment projects were in a limbo ever since the PIL was filed in 2004. “The Supreme court judgment has come as a relief for the entire island city, especially the two million tenants living in such buildings. Over the past eight years, we have all undergone a learning curve,” he said.
Rajesh Vardhan of Vardhaman Developers said the judgment has come at a time when several dilapidated buildings were crumbling, leading to loss of life. “Hopefully, today’s ruling will lead to systematic development,” he said.
Agarwal said that henceforth the BMC should ensure it does not condone the compulsory open spaces and in only exceptional cases, should it relax it to five feet. “The state housing authority, MHADA, should carry out due diligence to ensure that the list of tenants is not inflated by any builder in order to get more FSI. Thirdly, developers must be encouraged to go in for cluster redevelopment,” he added.
The Property Redevelopers Association said more than 500 proposals for redevelopment of cessed properties are pending with Mhada and BMC. “The pace of rehabilitation will now increase,” it said.
Four years ago, in a PIL filed by the late J B D’souza, urban planner Shirish Patel and civic activist Cyrus Guzder against the “misuse” of 33 (7), they pointed out how some builders inflated the number of tenants to avail extra FSI.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The new Zamindars of India - TheRussian mafia

Livemint.com reports on apathy of the Goa government to look into illegal land dealings in Goa.
Mumbai: The Enforcement Directorate, or ED, the agency responsible for investigating economic crime in India, has sought information from the Goa government on all companies that bought properties in the state between 2000 and 2007, as it investigates the role of a suspected Russian land mafia.
The agency suspects that some Indian companies that bought large plots in the state could have acted as fronts for Russian owners acquiring land in violation of the Foreign Exchange Management Act, or Fema, said a top enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The directorate, which has been probing suspicious land transactions, has had little success in tracking such deals.
“Most of these cases are unreported due to the reluctance of state authorities to cooperate with our investigations,” the same official said. “We have asked the Goa government to find out the names of big companies that have bought land for promotion of tourism in Goa.”
Goa chief minister Digambar Kamat declined to comment on the issue in a telephone conversation. He also said a comment through email or fax would take time, citing the state assembly session that’s under way.
Goa, famous for its beaches, tropical biodiversity and a strong Portuguese influence on its culture and architecture, attracts a large number of foreign tourists every year who find it easier to blend in with the diverse local population than in any other Indian state. But parts of Goa have also acquired a reputation as a haven for drug dealers and land mafia.
Last year, CNN-IBN television news channel reported that the Russian land mafia had been throwing out small landholders and farmers, and grabbing prime land in fraudulent deals. Following reports of foreigners buying land in Goa in violation of Fema, the state government handed over details on 21 companies owned by Russian nationals to the directorate and the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI.
According to Ashutosh Limaye, associate director at the property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, increased vigilance over land deals by the police, forest laws and rules relating to coastal regulation zones have stalled land transactions in Goa now.
“The deal makers want to play it safe and are waiting for resolution of the ongoing issues,” he said.”The number of land transactions in Goa has definitely come down as a fallout of the land scam. Many deals, that were at the negotiation stage, have been stalled.”
Still, the “significant decline” in the number of land deals hasn’t led to a sharp fall in prices, which have remained stable, he said.
In May, the directorate issued notices under Fema to the promoters and directors of two companies—True Axis Resorts Pvt. Ltd and Artlibori Resorts Pvt. Ltd, owned by Russian citizens Leonid Beyzer and Valiulin Rashida, respectively, asking them why they should not be penalized. The other directors in True Axis are Pramod B. Walke and Fransico D’Souza, both from Goa.
Beyzer, who still lives in Goa had, in 2005, bought 25,000 sq. m of land, including 19,906 sq. m of prime agricultural land in Morjim, North Goa, for constructing a resort. He was in India on a tourist visa, according to the directorate.
Mint was unable to contact True Axis and Artlibori Resorts because their addresses weren’t readily available.
The directorate also sent notices to directors of another resort firm, Oriental Ambers Pvt. Ltd, only to find later that there was no office at the registered address. It has not been able to trace the local owners of Oriental Ambers either.
According to the enforcement official, under Fema, foreigners can buy land in India if they hold a business visa and have lived in the country for 182 days at a stretch in the previous financial year. Such individuals should also possess documentary evidence of either long-term employment or business or vocational pursuits in India.
Foreigners with business visas can purchase properties in the name of Indian entities registered with the registrar of companies and the local branch of RBI. They can buy land for personal use if they can prove their intention to stay in India for an indefinite period of time. Even then, they are not allowed to buy agricultural and plantation land.
According to the directorate’s investigations, Beyzer founded True Axis and infused capital in the firm as foreign direct investment, or FDI, under the automatic route of RBI available for non-resident Indians. The Indian central bank raised objections later on the source of money.
Under the automatic FDI route, RBI’s prior approval is not required. However, the firm should notify RBI about the transaction within 30 days of inward remittances for clearance.
“We found that True Axis was not using the money for construction of the proposed resort. Now, we have attached the commercial property of True Axis in Morjim and are waiting to hear from the promoters on the show-cause notice,” the same official said.
“We fear that a number of big companies owned by Russians have followed the same route to grab land in Goa,” he added. “The modus operandi of such individuals is to float a company with an Indian partner, who acts as a front to register the firm in Goa. The company then pumps in foreign investment for real estate deals. Once the firm buys the land, it splits from the Indian partner.”
The directorate is investigating more than 400 cases where foreigners from the UK, France and Russia have bought land in Goa under tourist visas.
“Many of them are retired foreigners who are peacefully living in Goa and are harmless, but the real threat is from Russian companies who are illegally acquiring land,” the enforcement official said.
The agency recorded statements of individuals in 100 cases and issued 15 so-called show-cause notices to some of them under Fema last month. According to the directorate, the number of cases of misuse of property laws in Goa can go up to 2,000.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

What is a bubble ?

There are many definitions of the term bubble and bubbling prices of real estate are known to everyone in India. We need to define what is considered a good price for buying property in India. There is the obvious "sour grapes" syndrome which people succumb to when they discuss property prices so an objective analysis is needed on what constitutes fair price for a given property. The guidance value is of some relevance but in Mumbai and other urban cities it has lost its meaning due to the high component of black money. Given the growth of money supply by rising incomes and accessibility of loans we have seen the steep rise in property prices. Some 15 years ago when I joined an IT company in Bangalore I used to get 5,500 rupees a month. That was considered a princely amount and it was more then 2,000 rupees then what my mother earned a school teacher after spending 25+ years. At about the same time in 1993 someone I knew bought a 4000 sq ft plot in Jayanagar for 4 Lakhs which is 100 rs sq/ft. In 2008, Infosys should be paying 25000 to a fresher, A teacher of the same experience will probably at 10k (my guess) but the plot in Jayanagar is now 8000 rs per sq/ft. The point of the story is that land appreciation is something which cannot be predicted, however apartments have a finite value and will not show the same stellar returns.
If an investment is to be made it has to done at a low entry point for maximum return. For those who had the money to buy land in 1993, they can safely plan for their grand kids retirement. For those like me who didn't we can debate.

Realty slowdown delivers late punch to buyers

Economic times reports on the hard times facing the builders. Speculate and pass the buck to the consumer seems to the mantra of the builders.
Economic times reports
NEW DELHI: Realty slowdown is delaying delivery of homes. Several developers have postponed execution of their housing projects as funds become scarce, demand softens and raw material prices rise. While some others are deliberately delaying projects in order to reduce supply as demand weakens.
Several projects across the country are getting delayed as developers aren’t able to generate enough cash to continue construction work. Projects are delayed by as much as 6 months to over a year. “Funding is largely unavailable. Those developers who can access funds are also shying away from it since it has become very expensive. In addition, income from sales of housing units has declined with the softening of demand ,” says Cushman & Wakefield executive MD Sanjay Verma.

All developers are facing the heat on account of high interest rates, which the country’s central bank has been hiking in order to tame inflation . Mid and small developers are faring worse as banks have almost shut their door on them.

“It is a tough time for real estate firms. A weak demand is affecting cash flow. Moreover, the cost of debt and construction has risen. How can one continue construction with the same pace in this environment,” says a senior executive at Omaxe.

Some developers cite usual reasons such as delayed government sanction and unavailability of men and material for the current unusual delays. “Till the last month, steel was difficult to procure even at a very high rate delaying execution of projects ,” says Gaursons joint MD Manoj Gaur.
Not all delays are forced by just funding or material constraint. Says Sanjay Verma of Cushman & Wakefield, “Some developers are not minding delaying projects as they feel a reduced supply of homes will help them sustain prices in the face of slowing demand.”
In such cases, early buyers in the project are surely going to suffer as they will have to wait for a much longer time for delivery of their dream homes. Verma feels the scenario in real estate is unlikely to improve for at least one year as interest rates are expected to remain high.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Chennai : OMR plot goes for 10.5 crore an acre

Economic Times reports

CHENNAI: The Bangalore-based Mantri Developers has successfully bid for a 4.9 acre plot of land at Siruseri IT Park on the IT Highway for developing an amenities centre. The price — Rs 10.5 crore per acre for a 75-year lease — is considered a new benchmark in Chennai’s real estate market.

The plot of land, located at the entrance of the IT Park and adjoining the IT Highway, was originally acquired by the State Industries Promotion Corporation of Tamil Nadu Ltd (SIPCOT). It was handed over to the Tamil Nadu Road Development Company (TNRDC) — which develops the IT Highway also known as Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR) or Rajiv Gandhi Salai — on a 99-year lease for developing world-class facilities for the IT and ITES sector as well as the road users.

The TNRDC’s earlier efforts to identify a business partner for the project failed because all were far below the upset price of Rs 10 crore fixed by the company.

When the TNRDC floated a revised bid recently, Mantri offered to pay Rs 10.5 crore per acre and emerged successful. The TNRDC will hand over the land on a 75-year lease to Mantri for setting up a hotel — four star or five star — and an amenities centre with shopping mall and club house measuring roughly 6.5 lakh sq ft. The developer will be at liberty to identify a viable business proposition.

While sources in the TNRDC and Mantri refused to comment, it is learnt that the two firms are working towards the conclusion of the bid process. Mantri will have to make a one-time payment of Rs 51.45 crore for the plot of land. Mantri’s offer is more than double of what many IT companies have paid for acquiring land from SIPCOT in the Sirusseri park.

However, the commercial value of private properties along the IT Highway between Sholinganallur and Sirusseri range from Rs 15 crore to Rs 20 crore per acre. Mantri is also developing a residential project — Mantri Synergy — at Padur on the IT Highway.

The builder is already promoting luxury and business hotels in Bangalore and Hyderabad and IT space in Bangalore and Pune. The group started by Sushil Mantri with a low capital of Rs 10 lakh in 1999 in Bangalore, has so far completed more than a dozen residential projects in Bangalore.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Home loan borrowers look panic-stricken now

Life comes full circle. 3 years ago people will buying flats like bread and cake. Now the same people are panicking and paying off debt by their bonuses and whichever means they can. The wide-grin of leverage is now bleeding them every month. Singh is King Manmmomhan anmd Montek should be congratulated for allowing the transfer of wealth from the consumers to the builders and banks.

Home loan borrowers look panic-stricken now
ET Bureau[ Aman Dhall & Raja Awasthi ]

NEW DELHI: The fear is palpable. Indian home loan borrowers, who till recently were fuelling a growth story across banking, real estate and other allied sectors, look panic-stricken now. In fact, just two weeks after the Reserve Bank of India hiked the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 8.75% to 9%, there has been a quantum jump in the number of home loan borrowers approaching banks for foreclosures and partial repayments.

According to industry estimates, the number of home loan borrowers making foreclosures and partial repayments has almost shot up by 20-25% during the past few weeks.

In the last two months since the home loan rates started their northbound journey, all home loan financing companies’ repayments and foreclosures teams have been actively engaged in counselling their customers, making them understand the pros and cons of the decision to forego or go for partial repayment of loans. It may be mentioned that the Central bank’s latest CRR hike has sucked out about Rs 8,500 crore from the banking system.

Uday Sareen, country head, retail banking, ING Vysya Bank, told SundayET that the bank has seen a considerable increase in the number of queries for foreclosures and partial repayments. “In fact, the foreclosures have seen an increase of almost 10% over the previous quarter.



One, however, needs to understand that it’s not a simple black and white decision. Over the last 60 days, our teams have been continuously engaged with customers to explain them the merits and demerits of their decision. We are educating them how it can hurt their liquidity in the short to medium term, if they decide to foreclose their home loan accounts or make partial repayments,” he said.

Deepak Parekh, chairman of HDFC, the country’s largest housing finance company agrees. According to Mr Parekh, they too have witnessed a rush by home loan borrowers to make partial repayments.

“They are trying to reduce the term of their loans, which have increased due to recent interest rate hikes. These borrowers are typically the ones who have taken floating loans in the last 12-18 months and are now trying to make balloon payments through their salary bonuses,” he said. Floating rates account for 90 % of the bank’s home loan portfolio.

Developers across the board too confirmed to SundayET that there has been a spurt in home buyers returning or off-loading some of their home loan. With interest rates on home loans rising in the last one year, consumers are now looking at other options to acquire funds for their investments. Many also feel this will deter speculators from the real estate market.

Says Rohtas Goel, CMD, Omaxe Group: “The hike in repo and CRR rate hasn’t been a good news for the real estate sector and the home loan market. It is certainly a matter of concern for consumers, as even small upward changes in the monthly EMIs can play havoc with their personal finances.

The interest rate trend over the next few months is expected to be northwards, across industry. On the flip side, this may actually prove beneficial for actual users as it will deter speculators from over leveraging themselves and cornering and hoarding housing flats for speculative gains.”

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Pune property loses sheen, many buyers forfeiting booking amount

Source: The Indian Express, Aug-09-2008
By Sumit Kumar, Section Real Estate
Posted on Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 04:30:53 AM EST
15-20 per cent slowdown, rampant cancellations by investors; 2009 to witness oversupply of residential, commercial space: KPMG

The real estate boom in Pune may well be all but over as the market has started witnessing a lot of cancellations, with people even opting to forfeit the money given as booking amounts, rather than going ahead with purchase of the property. This was revealed by Jai Mavani and Prafull Jain, executive directors of leading market surveyors, KPMG India Pvt Ltd at a press conference here on Friday. They further added that by 2009 Pune will witness an oversupply of residential and commercial spaces vis-a-vis demand.

Mavani said, "Pune's real estate market has seen a pretty hectic business in the last few years. However, as seen in other cities in India, Pune too, has started witnessing a slowdown of about 15 to 20 per cent in the real estate sector. Though the top-tier developers may not be feeling the pinch as yet, the small developers have certainly started to."

Attributing this drop in the real estate to factors like reduction in the investors, Jain said, "One-third of buyers in the Pune market are investors who buy properties in anticipation of the assets appreciating. But this appreciation is not happening anymore."

Mavani advised developers to release their stock rather than get into trouble later on since operating cash-flows are more important than land-bank. ``It is better to take a prudent view of the land prices, rather than holding on to them," he said.

As per the projections provided by KPMG, Pune witnessed a supply of two million sq ft of commercial space in the first half of 2008, while approximately 3.5 million sq ft of supply is expected over the next six months.

As far as residential space is concerned, Koregaon Park and Kalyani Nagar continue to remain the most expensive residential markets with Wanavdi emerging as a new mid-ranged residential location. As for the retail properties, Aundh is emerging as a preferred choice because of the presence of a large number of residential properties available for rent. "Cautious approach adopted by retailers will help rentals stabilize in the short term," said Mavani.

He added that the IT sector, that has been the major growth driver for real estate in Pune, has started slowing down. A shift to SEZs will further lead to oversupply in IT parks.

Commenting on the rise of malls across the country, Mavani said, "Malls have been built indiscriminately without any applications of how malls operate internationally. At one point, we will see these malls convert into commercial spaces. Some of these malls will fail entirely. Therefore they will have to strategize themselves."


Monday, August 11, 2008

Sabeer Bhatia's Nano dream

Looks like this one is turning out to be a nightmare for him. I particularly like the line where he says "Each acre is more expensive then the previous". Welcome to capitalism Mr Bhatia. The San Francisco chronicle has a more detailed report then all the stupid Indian tabloids which masquerade as news-papers.

S.F. tech mogul wants to build city in India How to build a city sustainably

Sabeer Bhatia plans a 17.6-square-mile city of world-clas... Nano City, as shown in this architectural rendering, is e...

(08-10) 19:14 PDT --

A few days after his 29th birthday, Sabeer Bhatia sold Hotmail, the company he co-founded, to Microsoft for $400 million. Selling the Web-based e-mail service bought him a swank Pacific Heights condo with a panoramic view, buzz as the next hot Silicon Valley player, boldfaced name recognition in the Indian press - and eventually, one incredibly unchallenging year off playing golf and jet-set partying.

He became haunted by the question common to those who find wild success at a preternaturally young age: Now what?

Granted, over the past decade, Bhatia has had his hand in several technology startups and post-startups both here and in India, some mildly successful, some not. But his latest project is one that comes from the heart: He is trying to develop an Indian version of Silicon Valley, a sustainable city spread over 11,000 acres in northern India that he envisions will be home to 1 million residents employed largely by world-class universities and A-list companies that act as the country's idea generators. He calls it Nano City.

One problem: Until recently, Bhatia knew nothing about developing cities. The 39-year-old San Francisco resident is an electrical engineer by training and profession. And with a ton of cash in the bank, the last challenge he thought he would face is the hassle of navigating India's cash-under-the-table democracy, while preaching sustainable development. India, with a population of 1.12 billion, is beset with energy and infrastructure problems; most citizens don't have access to safe drinking water.
Major developer

But now - after spending $4 million of his own money and learning some hard lessons about international development - Bhatia's project could be on the brink of starting. This summer, he partnered with a major Indian developer that pledged funds to help purchase the land needed in the northern Indian state of Haryana to break ground on Nano City.

But major hurdles remain, and the project could easily fail.

Bhatia wasn't thinking about urban development when the idea for Nano City first surfaced in March 2006. He was watching a cricket match in India with a government official from Punjab, pitching a plan to bring premier U.S. educational departments in science and technology to Indian universities.

"The education over there, until the undergrad level, is pretty good," said Bhatia, who attended Indian schools before receiving an undergraduate scholarship to the California Institute of Technology and earning a master's degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University. "But when it comes to grad school, it just falls off the cliff in terms of quality."

The official asked what he needed to get the project done. Bhatia casually told the official that he could lure A-list U.S. universities to the area if the government provided land and financial incentives.

A few days later, Bhatia returned to the United States, having agreed to write a proposal. But he considered the conversation the kind of casual banter one has at a sporting event, something not to be taken too seriously - until Naval Bhatia, Sabeer's cousin and an attorney, mentioned the conversation to a friend, an official in nearby Haryana.

The Haryana official told Naval Bhatia, "Why should Punjab get him? We want to offer him even more."

"It's a common occurrence, especially in developing countries," said Seshan Rammohan, executive director of the Silicon Valley chapter of the Indus Entrepreneurs, an international organization of Indian and other South Asian entrepreneurs. "When someone gets some notoriety, as Sabeer did after selling Hotmail, they get bombarded with offers.

"If someone like Sabeer is attached to a project, then the thinking is: Other people will want to invest," Rammohan said.

Within days, Bhatia returned to India to speak with the Haryana officials. They discussed an 11,000-acre spot about 15 miles east of Chandigarh, Bhatia's birthplace and one of the few planned cities in India.
Not another Bangalore

The idea of an Indian Silicon Valley began to resonate with Bhatia. He didn't want to create another Bangalore, the traffic-tangled, booming thicket of a city where he had grown up, best known for its outsourcing operations for American companies. He wanted a place where Indian-germinated ideas could flourish and where young Indian students could receive a first-rate education.

In pursuing the Nano City project, Bhatia found the answer to the question, "Now what?" If it succeeded, he could make millions of dollars more. "But my reason for doing this is to leave behind a legacy," Bhatia said.

"How many times in our lives do we get a chance to build a city?" he said. "How many times do we get an opportunity to fix some of the problems that affect 1.1 billion people - that's one-sixth of humanity."

Bhatia is aware that planned cities often fail. To avoid pitfalls, he intends to involve "the right partners, do proper design, provide basic things that you and I take for granted here."
Atypical entrepreneur

Before calling in the bulldozers and cranes, Bhatia boned up on development. He ordered dozens of books on Amazon.com and picked the brains of Stanford professors, real estate developers, even the guy who renovated his apartment.

"Why not?" Bhatia said. "He was a guy in the construction business."

That summer, his assistant set up a meeting with several UC Berkeley professors. The professors had met Bhatia's type before.

"A lot of these rich entrepreneurs come to us, thinking they have all the answers," said Nezar AlSayyad, a professor of architecture, city planning and urban design at UC Berkeley who has been involved in projects around the world. "I expected him to be like that."

AlSayyad grilled Bhatia during their first meeting, asking for specifics and trying to ferret out his motivations. The professor silently shuddered when Bhatia mentioned he liked Santana Row, the San Jose development that is one of the few spots in Silicon Valley that tries to create a public square with a mix of retail and housing. AlSayyad thinks it is part of suburban sprawl.

Nonetheless, AlSayyad came away impressed with Bhatia, and for one simple reason. "He listened. And he asked questions."
Social, financial impact

In early 2007, Bhatia flew nearly two dozen students and faculty to the proposed site in India, where for nine days they met with local officials and residents, and studied the topography of the site. Over the summer, the group explored green ideas, such as ensuring that a public park was within a five-minute walk of any point in the city and how best to create efficient mass transit.

"Sabeer really pushed these ideas of sustainability," said Stefan Al, lead designer of the project. "A lot of these ideas have been tried before, but not all together in one place."

In addition to contributing design ideas, the students challenged Bhatia with questions about Nano City's social and financial impact. They posed one particularly challenging question in the developing world: What will happen to the people who live in the roughly two dozen villages where Nano City would be built?

Many belong to families who have lived on small plots for more than 100 years. In May, 71-year-old Karam Singh, a farmer who owns 25 acres near the proposed project site, told the Indian Express, "Even my great grandfather was born here. How can I sell this land?"

Land prices in the area have quadrupled since the project was announced, and currently stand at about $50,000 an acre. Rafiq Dossani, senior research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, believes land acquisition from villagers will pose the biggest problem.

"The state leaves it to the businessperson to negotiate his way through the thicket of corruption and lack of information that typically surrounds land records in rural areas," Dossani said. "A piece of agricultural land will often have multiple claimants, indebtedness and prior claims over the generations."
Mt. Everest challenges

Last fall, Bhatia began purchasing the land, a few acres at a time. After acquiring about 50 acres, he found that "every subsequent acre of land we were buying was more expensive than the previous one," he said. In November, he stopped the process and hired four attorneys to research who owns every plot.

Meanwhile, he was having trouble raising money. Nobody wanted to invest. The name "Sabeer Bhatia" opened some doors, but he was repeatedly told he lacked sufficient real estate development experience.

Last month, Parsvnath Developers Ltd., an Indian development firm with experience in land acquisition, agreed to pick up a 38 percent equity stake in the project. The move, Bhatia said, will enable him to break ground on Nano City early next year and develop its first 1,000 acres.

Bhatia plans to offer free university education to the children of landowners. "We think that over 95 percent of all the farmers actually want to sell," he said. "We think this will put pressure on that remaining 5 percent of people who are maybe greedy for more money."

If they don't sell, Bhatia said, "We are ready to walk away. ... You can't build a city around a farm."

If he does succeed, then the hard part comes: developing Nano City in an environmentally sustainable way in a rapidly growing country. "This is not Sabeer climbing Mount Everest," said entrepreneur group leader Rammohan. "It's Sabeer climbing Mount Everest with the city of San Francisco on his back."
India facts

Although India occupies only 2.4 percent of the world's land area, it supports over 15 percent of the world's population. India's median age is 25, one of the youngest among large economies. About 70 percent of the population lives in more than 550,000 villages, and the remainder in more than 200 towns and cities.

Population: 1.12 billion, 27.8 percent living in cities; annual growth rate: 1.3 percent.

Workforce: 450 million; agriculture - 60 percent; service and government - 22 percent; industry and commerce - 18 percent.

Literacy: 61 percent.

Gross Domestic Product (2007): $1 trillion.

Real growth rate (2006-2007): 9.4 percent.

Per-capita GDP (2006-2007): $909.

Trade: Exports (2006-2007): $127 billion, $22 billion of which are software exports.

Major trade partners: United States, China, EU, Russia, Japan.

Source: U.S. Dept. of State, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs (June 2008)
Nano City's green features

Sabeer Bhatia intends to incorporate green and sustainable building practices into Nano City's design - a rarity in India, where availability of power and water is inconsistent. Stefan Al, the Berkeley-based lead designer of the first phase of the Nano City, is planning the following features:

-- Fifty percent park and open green space, with only local, self-sustainable vegetation planted in landscaped areas. A park will be less than a five-minute walk from any starting point in the city.

-- Shaded walkways, arcades and tree-lined boulevards to encourage walking.

-- A rapid bus-transport system, where buses will travel in dedicated lanes.

-- Living machines, such as surface-water treatment plants that convert wastewater into chemical and odor-free drinking water by using algae, plants, bacteria and micro-organisms.

-- Power generated by windmills and photovoltaic technologies.

-- Green roofs that capture rainwater.