Thursday, November 27, 2008

Mumbai :Terror hits where it hurts the most

Adding to the original post I think we can expect the following in the days ahead.
1. The stock market crashes to lows never seen in the past 4 years. One may question why did the market hold up on Friday. The answer is simple. It was propped up by the institutions and the government. If the market had crashed 5%, the terrorist would've won. So basically the brokers traded amongst themselves and squared the deals at the end of the day. On Monday and the weeks ahead we will see massive liquidation by the FII's which will wipe out the most die-hard bull of the Sensex.
2. We may also see a rate cut of 200 basis points and loan interest rates can dip to 10%. Builders will use this cut as an opportunity to tout their ridiculously priced assets. As believers in black-swan theory will observe, the events of 26/11 will be the last straw which breaks the camel's back, be it the Sensex or the mega bubble in Mumbai real estate.
3. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that foreign companies outsourcing work to India will be more cautious and circumspect in their dealings. The binge madness of outsourcing everything to gain arbitrage will now to looked more carefully as to whether it affects critical business functions in times of disruptions.
4. India's date with terror will continue. The folks who commit these crimes have no regret, remorse or a living conscience. They are so blinded by hatred that it will be only time before another attack of a similar magnitude is mounted on Mumbai or some other city. To deal with this situation we need the Army to run security operations in major metro areas. The police is too corrupt and incompetent and pictures of pot-bellied policemen hanging around the Taj as mute spectators are a disgrace.
5. The cocky behavior the many South Mumbai-tes will now be a thing of the past. I distinctly remember a recruting pitch made to me by a just returned US educated individual way back in Jan 1993 when I went to meet him at his apt in Malabar Hill. He said "The tile you are standing on is worth 30000 Rs", effectively telling me that he has deep pockets. That day was an eye-opener to me on the sheer arrogance which was a part and parcel of some people who live on prime real estate.
I can go on and on but I'd like readers to comment on the aftermath of the siege on South Mumbai.
>>>
As Mumbaikars assess the extent of the damage to lives and property in the attacks of 26/11, it is the healing of psyche which will be in question. While previous attacks have targeted densely populated areas like railway stations, temples and mosque's these attacks have been focused on the rich and elite in South Mumbai. This affulent area is home to less then a fraction of Mumbai's 13 million population, and now appear to be as vulnerable to the crossfire of terrorism as the average mumbaikar.

Lets hope the government wakes up to this tragedy and shakes up the law and order machinery. If an attack of this magnitude is replicated somewhere else, we will have ourselves to blame. A lone fire engine battling the fire at the Taj hotel speaks volumes of the lack of preparedness to handle emergencies.

I hope all readers and their close ones are safe. Our thoughts are prayers are with the injured and the unfortunate victims of this massive tragedy. MumbaiHelp has more coverage on this issue.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Salute to Mr Hemant Karkar & Maharashtra Anti Terrorist Squad.

Now who to blame? Why it happened? Very conveniently PM showed finger to PAK.
What security measure is been implemented based on past experience by Govt.?
--- Mumbai first need security then Infrastructure, govt. should upgrade the Maharashtra Police with latest technology & equipment to fight against any such incident.
--- If any thing to do on international level, first find out the sources of funding to terrorist & freeze it. How come a Bankrupt county funded this operation?
--- There are lots of News & interviews of Politician but there is not a single analysis by security analyst.
--- Universities should start the courses to develop a talent for analyst, to understand the terrorism & their activity. This professional will forecast the future terror plans.
NOTE: US universities already have such programme & professionals.
--- Now time has come for INDIA to use own IT skill to set up nation wide intelligence system.

But this is possible only if you will demand the political parties about their plan to improve the Internal Security?
No external element can change this, enough pointing finger to external elements. We have to demand for security instead of Color TV, reservations, own interest.

Yes you have the greatest power VOTING, season has started, use your power.

Oppressed said...

Paki terrorists have succeeded in putting the needle through the real estate Balloon. The free fall has started. It is a matter of time your dream of owning a home will be a reality.

Regarding the terrorist attacks, the carnage is deplorable. My sympathy with the bereaved families.

This time, the terrorist acts are committed by muslims, to wreck vengeance for perceived discrimination. Next time, the perpetrators will be our own people. The policies of this government driving the poor to the wall are creating educated frustrated young men who might follow the example of indian mujahideen. Imagine, ambani building a billion dollar home where as hundreds of thousands in Mumbai can't afford a decent meal.

Real estate goes up or down, Mumbai is going to be a terrorist heaven unless the state government take steps to provide affordable housing, toilets and health care.

Pandu said...

where it hurts the most ???

It should be read as 'where it hurts the least.

The terrorists did a favor mumbaikers by getting rid of some of the scum. Taj/oberoi stay costs about rs 20000/ a days which is more than 3 times of my monthly salary. I sometimes wonder why there is so much disparity in society.

I, for one, have no sympathy for people who milk us and live in luxury.

Anonymous said...

Well Pandu, that is Capitalism.
India has been following US for the last 8-10 years.

Chandu said...

Anonymous (7:19)

Lowest paid worker in US earns at least $2000 per month and a hotel having better standard than Taj/Oberoi costs $100 per night as opposed to $400 for Taj/Oberoi. The capitalistic path followed by India, is essentially a process sucking blood from poor and feeding those in power and rich. Same applies to housing market.

A 2 bedroom apartment in Mumbai in a suburb in Mumbai costs anywhere in Mumbai costs anywhere between 50-100 lakhs when the average salary of a educated person is 20,000 per month ($ 500). How can anyone with this earning afford a home.

US is capitalistic but humane, but the story of India is different. It looks like the objective of Indian capitalistic is making the rich richer and poor poorer. How can otherwise describe the disparity.

Anonymous said...

Firslty, I feel sorry for all the innocent people (whether they are rich or poor) who died. RIP.
Chandu has a very good point. Recently i stayed in a famous hotel in the US for just 75$ (including tax too) per night. and i was also really impressed with their service. the front desk people were very helpful.
look here 400$ per night. thats ridiculous. usually they keep some snacks in your room. (like LAYS etc).. eat them (thinking its free ) and then check ur room bill. u will be shocked to know what they have charged for it.

Anonymous said...

i am the same ananymous as the previous post. just read a few things abt mumbai attack. apparently, the hotel staff were unselish and saved/tried saving may guests withought bothering about their life. these are the real heroes of our country. we salute you

Anonymous said...

My dear Chandu:
The poverty in US is cyclical. Anyone who is rich doesn't mean he would not become poor in another cycle. Many people go back below poverty line and claim benefits from the Govt. The low paid worker makes $960 per month working full-time.

There is no comparison between India and US. US also has hotels that are $500 per night like India but they are not for low/middle class people. For middle class they have chains like Holiday Inn and Marriott, which are 100-200 dollars per night.

Cost of living in US is very high:
MOnthly expenses as below in US-->
--Normal rent/mortgage: $800-$1000.
--Car Insurance: $100-$200 per month.
--Taxes: $70K salary will take away 25% in Federal tax, 6% in state tax, 1.5% medicare, 7.5% social security, which is a total of 39% gone.
--Then health insurance: all low earners don't have any health insurance. For the example above, the employer will take $300 or more per month from employees pay checks for premium.
--Most Govt. schools are free but private school tuition in US is close to $1200 per month for one child.
--COllege expenses are very high, MBA costs close to $80,000 in some decent school and top notch could be very high.
--Eating out is very expensive in US. One meal for a family of 4 can easily cost $80.00 at a very average restaurant. If you go upscale , it could easily be $300 for 4 people.

Basically, you cannot blame India. US is not fair either. I do agree that the role of Govt. should be to provide basic necessities like food and shelter are reasonable prices to all citizens and India will soon build affordable housing.

The problem with India is corruption and massive greed we Indians have. As long as Indians who have power are trying to work to show people how good they are, and everyone just listens to them and trying to show how big their house is, or car and how beautiful their spouses are, or how much they are spending in their son's wedding...etc.etc..will give rise to more and more corruption.

Anonymous said...

Chandu & Pandu , what the hell you know about the US? Just reading some article & watching movie don’t be jealous about the US life.
US also have very high disparity. A normal person can afford electronics gadget, car but he can’t afford a health insurance, simple doctor’s visit, education yes even BA, BCOM kind of degree.

Agree the disparity in India is increasing for this who is responsible? Your self only, you want free color TV, free washing m/c, reservation etc. Have you ever demanded the politician for improvement in public facilities like school buses civil amenities in your area, you want to move to suburban but don’t want to improve your neighborhood.

Today this blast has happened in rich locality; if tomorrow it will happen in train then what is going to happen to your family? Because of this extreme selfishness only we have reached to this situation.

On the other side, if the rich will failed to address the current disparity in society very soon there will be a revolution which can’t save the affluent’s wealth. The social disparity is erupting though naxalite or terrorism activity.

Anonymous said...

I am a Paki Muslim with deep roots in India. I have been frequently visiting India since I was a boy.
I believe that division of India was a bad idea, I also believe that India would have been divided by Brits, no matter what. It's NOT Muslims who "won" the division. Brits have done it wherever they ruled.
Most Indians don't know this but culture and social conditions are very similar in Pakistan and India.
The root-cause of the problem is,epidemic corruption, wealthy getting wealthier by robing the less fortunate and poor on both side of the sub-continent. It's this anger that has been brewing and politicians/evil doers will do everything in their power to misguide the youth to continue their pillage and plunder of their countries even if leads to the nuclear war. I feel bad for the people who died in this terror attacks and I sympathize with the ones who may suffer the consequences of this tragedy in the future. I am sad and feel so small, weak and helpless, thinking that a lot of innocent ppl have died and some more will and I cannot do anything.
It is heart warming to read some of the people talking sense here.

Anonymous said...

Mumbai was anyways headed the UP/Bihar way. Power cuts in the suburbs, water problems, traffic is horrible...air pollution is going up all the time. Inflation is ballooning, every monsoon you have a flood, raj thackeray wants only the marathis to live here OR ELSE... House quality is deteriorating..Not worth living or retiring in. I think if it were not for the job and proximity to office most people would not want to stay for a day in mumbai.
Add to that the obscenely ridiculous rates the builders have been charging...I think the terrorists might have done a favor to all of us. Specially if businesses shift out of mumbai. Oh yes, the rates will plummet, may that help whoever wants to buy a house and retire in this pig sty of a city..

Anonymous said...

I was following this blog for almost 3 months now and never posted a comment. I was born & brought up in Mumbai and now I am based in US on job. I was planning to buy a house in Mulund or Thane for a year or so ( I think other areas are out of my reach and I make 80K$ per year!!). This terrorist incident has had me shocked. I ask everyone on moral grounds that when u r paying from ur ass , a house of 70 lacs does not make sense if you dont have basic security of your loved ones and your fellow Mumbaites aka Mumbaikars. Its a sad thing that a common cannot afford a house in this city but can lose his life so easily. I am now undecided whether I will ever buy a house in this city or around it. My deep condolences to anyone who has lost a loved one or is hurt by this incident. Lets hope we don't forget this as quickly as 26/7 deluge. or july blasts. Me and some of my friends have started a ... well i don't want to call it any name. Its a responsibility we owe to ourselves. Put it plainly "Mail one letter , written mail & not an email every week to PM, CM of Maharashtra or any civic body which owes us an answer for this". Make copies of your initial mail & keep on mailing it. If anyone can let me know of such a address it wud be great. I am not waiting 13 years for convictions in this case. If any one has a better idea please come forward and post it. Thanks - Awakened Mumbaikar/Mumbaite.

Anonymous said...

We salute the bravery and martyrdom of all policemen, commandos who fought valiantly to save the lives and rescue the hostages in the terror attack…!!!!

In US the subprime mortgage loan problem is now spreading to Prime mortgage loan. The people with good credit history who were not defaulting on the loan are now finding it difficult to keep up with the monthly loan payments because of a spike in adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and of lay-offs. ( this is the harbinger for the drama unfolding for Indian prime debtors too. The Indian Housing Finance companies must be feeling squeamish by this news. But they still boast on national new channels they have lent only to prime borrowers and are smarter than US counterparts. Tsunami of house loan defaults is figment of imagination for them.). The US economic policy is to encourage people to go more on borrowing. The Fed activities confirm this belief. The recent bailout plan will help weaken the US economy by pushing people more into debt trap instead of helping them to come out of precarious situation they are currently in. Please check following.

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/
moneyhappy/124971


The fallout is loud and clear that there is more trouble in the offing for US economy and to India IT companies (of course there are other sectors also) as a ripple effect. Following is the performance of IT companies listed on Nasdaq.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
quickiearticleshow/msid-3750018.cms
US-listed Indian cos lose $6 bn in a week

“IT bellwether Infosys' market valuation eroded by one billion dollars, while that of IT major Wipro decreased by 863 million dollars. In addition, Satyam Computer Services saw a value erosion of 457 million dollars.”

But lately the reverse is happening here in India. It is ironical that the shares of IT services companies whose major revenue come from US companies is going up. It is just a matter of time that the reality hit hard in the face.

No doubt the slowdown in IT sector will be one the major factors for the crashing ( 40 to 50%) of the real estate balloon in India.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 5:27 am

Cost of living in US is very high only if you consider US as made up of just California and New York. Only in these two state you wold end up paying more than 35% as income tax.

Rest all other states are much cheaper to live. That includes expenses for schools, colleges and eating out as well. I agree with you with on mortgage and insurance expenses.

Just so that you dont accuse me of any ignorance, I live in a US city with a population of a more than 1 million.

Basically, US is fair to live if you are not living in california or NY.

M said...

Vik, cant you keep the 'market' out of this ? And the commentators are absurd. it could be hilarious if it were not so tragic. Please maintain decency to the departed and do no let commentators link it to 'realdisaparity' and other such things.

Vik said...

M,
You can only delink the market for so long. An emotional response does no good. After 9/11 attacks there were stupid commentators in the media who were urging investors to buy stocks an not be cowed by terrorists, but the results are out for everyone to see.

If the government is serious of stamping out terrorism, they need to first deal with stamping out corruption. A terrorist gets a free ride every step of the way till the time he chooses to fire the weapon. It goes without saying that these folks have bribed govt officials when they rented the apt, probably got a driving license the same way and opened many doors by using cash.

It is unfortunate that so many people died, however the people who are alive need to think logically to survive the crisis ahead

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with VIK, govt. should first control the corruption. Handful of people sold the country for personal benefit. The terrorist has also told that they a local people did traveling arrangement & provided all information about area map, police station & cops.

Anonymous said...

Vik et. al.
Government is not going to control corruption. It can't as it is composed of the same people.

Major layoffs are coming in 2009 financial year. Housing will start collapsing and would bottom out in 2-3 years. Bottom price would be year 2000-2001 price.

A lot of smart people in India will get screwed royally without oil.

Anonymous said...

Sad people are dreaming to buy a house out of this carnage!!!. Asshole get out of Mumbai who are just waiting for a crash at any cost. Mumbai and India will bounce back, no matter what the politicians do.

People over here are really selfish and not worried about peoples life but waiting for the property prices to fall. Bastards of first order!! SHAME ON YOU ALL WHO ARE USING THIS AS A REASON FOR PROPERTY PRICES TO FALL!!!

Avinash

Anonymous said...

Pandu,

With this mentality you will never come up in life, you will only die in poverty and will live through out your life in Slums.

Shame on you fuc.... looser.

Avinash

Anonymous said...

I just received call from real estate consultant (broker) and he told me that he has some flats to show me in bandra for about 1.5 cr (rs.15 million) for 2bhk flat (that rate goes around rs.15000-rs.18000). Where as property times is still showing rates in bandra area from rs. 18,000 to rs.30,000.

Times of India should get facts straight and show real prices instead of speculative prices.

Shame on Times Of India and Property times, these people have sold their sole to builder lobby.

mahi25.

patil said...

Anonymous(2.58a.m, 3.38 am) are either abdulla or sabalseshu who have changed theie business from real estate to Foras road barwas

Shivaji said...

@ Anonymous (Avinash)


i dont see anything wrong in Pandu's comments. The Mumbai attacks were planned and executed by RSS/BAJRANGIS for political gains, but sadly things went wrong.

Vijay said...

Bomb blast prophecy predicted in September. This guys has also talked about stock market future.

Search for 'Bomb Blasts in India: When is the Next One?

http://www.astrocamp.com/vedicastrology/archives/2008_09_01_archive.html

Shailesh said...

Cheap finance: Key to housing

Here is a real-life story: The father is a worried man. His son, a young professional paying back a home loan of about Rs 30 lakh borrowed a few years earlier, is making an EMI payment of about Rs 24,000. A couple of years back this EMI included an interest of Rs 18,500 and principal repayment of Rs 5,500. Interest rates were then in the single digit.

Since then the rates have risen steadily, the interest component alone has jumped to Rs 29,000 in the last few months. But with the EMI at Rs 24,000, the shortfall of Rs 5,000 is being added to the principal every month.

Wow, I did not know India has Negative Option ARM Loans? The last scenario is what caused issue in US.

Shailesh said...

From building boom to bust

But there is a dark underside to the woes of the real estate sector. Construction activity now accounts for one-tenth of India’s non-agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). It has been one of the fastest-growing parts of the economy. It also offers millions of jobs to unskilled workers who flee rural misery.
Six out of every hundred working Indians are employed in construction activities. The Planning Commission estimates that at least one-fifth of the 115 million new jobs likely to be created between 2006 and 2016 will be in construction. That is more than new jobs expected from manufacturing.

Shailesh said...

Property prices may go further south

The terrorist attacks on Mumbai are likely to further pull down the sagging property prices in the city, especially in South Mumbai.
South Mumbai, the most expensive property market is expected to face a dip in value across all segments, including rentals, in the next six months, feel industry experts.

Price is usually a function of demand and supply. The excess demand for properties had been pushing up the prices in this part of the city till recently. “The attacks would spread negative sentiments in the property market. New property deals will be very negligible in the next few months,” said a senior official with Birla SunLife’s real estate division.

The thing I fail to understand is why all this so called RE experts keep bringing up Demand / Supply for prices. Did they stop reading economics after 1st chapter? Give me any demand/supply analysis of houses in Mumbai? There are Bubbles and Busts, its proven worldwide. Just look at what happened in US since 2006 onward. Even if you were to dismiss bubble theory, you need to look at Price to Rent or Price to Income ratios. Mumbai's population can not afford the price quoted. Period. All these RE cheerleaders should be sent back to school.

Shailesh said...

Planning to sell property? Do it now before correction sets in

MUMBAI: As talks of an impending crash in property prices gather steam, the policy to be adopted by home-seekers is clear: wait and watch. The right time and price are a few months ahead, say experts. However, if you are at the other end of the spectrum, that is, if you happen to be a seller, the reverse is true.

Shailesh said...

Realty prices in India may fall 30%: Goldman Sachs

After India's last housing bust in 1996, real property prices fell some 40 percent over three years, negatively affecting consumption and investment demand, the report said.

The realty sectoral index of the Bombay Stock Exchange has lost more than 83 percent in the last one year dragged down by heavyweights like Unitech, DLF and IndiaBulls Real Estate.

"Mitigating factors, such as India's favourable demographics, low mortgage penetration, falling interest rates, and ongoing infrastructure demand, in our view, will keep the property downturn from being protracted. However correction is imminent," he said

Anonymous said...

@Shailesh,

About GDP and contribution by the RE sector, undoubtedly the GDP growth will slow down and be impacted by RE bust. But then, such are economic cycles. About labour and job slowdown, the construction labourers can by absorbed by the massive outlay in infrastructure spending which has to come up...its the civil engineers and supervisors who will have a tough time for some period to come.
I think its a tautology to say - the prices of flats in India are unrealistic. Everyone including Abdulla would concur with this one.
Lastly, Goldman Sachs was incapable of predicting their own demise as investment bankers! I would not place much belief in them..the bust will be catastrophic as usual. Specially since the players are over-leveraged and cash starved. Also they have over committed in the form of land banks?

Anonymous said...

Nothing like dreaming keep dreaming!!!.

It is almost two years now we are hearing about crash in property prices. No doubt there is correction snd the same is very healthy. Crash no one knows whether it will happen immediately or will take two years.

Let us see where the interest rates move in near future we will get some direction.

Meanwhile keep dreaming!!! some people here have said that Banner (Pune) will see prices at 1400/. Great!! let us wait and watch.

Cheers,

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

The real estate prices will crash severely in Pune. This super bubble has been caused by the crazy IT guys. Now the IT companies are waking up to the reality.

Let's begin by saving $10 per staff, says Infosys CEO Kris
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
Infotech/Lets_begin_by_saving_10_per_staff/articleshow/3781929.cms

"Detailing the most serious slowdown faced by the three decade-old IT offshoring story, Infy CEO Kris Gopalakrishnan, in an internal mail circulated to all the employees, says: “If each one of us is able to identify a savings of even $10–not just per day or per month–but $10 as a one-time effort from each one of us, that would translate to a saving of close to $1,000,000—which is a substantial amount.”


TCS draws up austerity plan
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/
TCS_draws_up_austerity_plan/articleshow/3781941.cms


Facing credit crunch: Wipro seeing a few cancellations, more
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/
Facing_credit_crunch_Wipro_seeing_a_few_cancellations_more_delays/articleshow/3782564.cms

"When asked about cancellations by Wipro's customers -- who include Cicso, Credit Suisse and Nortel -- he said: "Some few, but much more delay, postponement, resizing -- a few cancellations."

The IT companies are covertly laying off employees sugarcoating it as "Voluntary attrition". Some of the unlucky guys are waging a futile battle against a shocking reduced monthly salary because of "Poor performance".

Anonymous said...

Recession
in U.S. May Be Just Beginning as Job Losses Mount


By Steve Matthews and Timothy R. Homan

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy, now officially in recession, may be in the midst of the longest slump in the post- World War II era as job losses mount and credit dries up.

Anonymous said...

There is humor in the market that prices are going to FALL hence nobody is buying.

This was confirmed by one of my friend working as real state agent in Bandra.

He said, one of his customer who was ready to pay Rs.3 corer for a flat in august but buyer was asking for 3.25 caror, in dec he is not ready to pay 2.75 corer for same flat and seller is now willing to sell it for 2.75cr. Buyer is now quoting him Rs.2.5 caror because he is not not getting more then 40 loan against property where previously he was getting 60% of 3 caror.

Sippy housing is now ready to offer up to 40 lakhs (20% discount) lower price to genuine buyer on original prices offered in launch of new building project in may 2008.

Funny thing is that Buildings completion date is now pushed back by 6 months and no wonder if it gets delayed further 6-12 months if they don't find any buyers or face cash crunch.

I suggest anyone, put caution while buying flat in any under construction project because it is possible that some projects may get into trouble due to falling prices and strict credit conditions by the banks.

Jay.

Anonymous said...

The full heat on real estate, especially in Mumbai, will be felt during the third quarter of 2009. Until then, it is unlikely that the investors flats will be in the market. Now the situation is wait and watch. There is also a rumor that the income tax department is going to verify the ownership documents, and if found benaami, confiscate and auction such properties in the open market.

Potential buyers should wait until prices reach 2001 level . Buying anything now, is putting money in the drain

Anonymous said...

@jay

Do not bullshit abou your 2.5, 2.75, 3.0 or 4 crores etc. People woth that kind of money, wont surf the internet about real estate crash. Take your crores and shove it in your .... If you want to contribute, write something realistic.

Anonymous said...

@Jay,

You comment -"There is **humor** in the market that prices are going to FALL hence nobody is buying." made my day. :)) I know it was a tlip of slongue but very apt, hence very funny.

I think you have also succeeded in igniting Abdulla AKA Sandaas Bhai AKA ...

I did not see any mention of the crore pati looking up on the internet as to what should be the price of flats in Bandra. Yet Sandaas bhai ko mirchi lagi :)

I think Sandaas Bhai has also invested in flats and now is doing Sandaas in his pants. Also he is trying to bullSandaas his way on this forum. So take him lightly and enjoy his comments.

After all if it were not for Sandaas Bhai this forum would not have so many Jokers to laugh at..

Anonymous said...

Keep dreaming and your upbringing shows with your post. I think you are staying in a chawl and hence this influence in language.

We have made investment and the price we have brought we are sure it will never come back.

Keep dreaming and hold on to your Mutual funds.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

@Sandaas,

I am not from a chawl and btw, what's wrong with chawlwallas? Do you discriminate about the poor? Too bad!

So, my guess was clearly right you have invested into real estate at the very top of the bubble and are more of a stupid investor or a greater fool :)

My sympathies with you. People in this forum were granting you too much intelligence, thinking that you are a broker and are trying to play sly tricks to fool people to buy into real estate.

Better try and sell it right now before the crash happens and at whatever rate you get. People who get married to their investments suffer immensely and if you hang on due to some bias to your investments for a year or two you will lose out greatly. So sell, sell, sell as soon as you can...find a greater fool.

Anonymous said...

Thanks my guess is right that you are from Chawl. BTW just to inform you we dont hold like you guys hold your mutual funds. We sell and keep rolling that is what our fathers have thought us.

WE DONT MAKE PROFITS WHEN TO SELL OUR PROPERTIES BUT WE MAKE WHEN WE BUY!!!

Greed is inbuilt in Mutual fund guys and you are the guys who always loose. Trust me guys like you will die alfter paying 70% of your salary as tax(income tax, srvice tax, Vat and Excise).

End of the day you will always miss the boat and then wait for a cyclone thinking that let the others also die. Keep of this mentality or else your child will also engrain this from you.

Think clamly how much money have you made till date in any investment. By your logic prices of property will never go up. In 1967 my dad brought his house in Mumbai for Rs.150/sq ft, today it s Rs.10000.

Have you ever thought how this has happened. Pls. think about it maybe you will change.

NEVER THINK OF TIMING THE MARKET, GET OUT AND LET THE GUYS WHO YOU SELL ALSO EARN.

This is my mantra of doing investment. Give it a thought, nothing personal.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

Your guesses do not do anything for me Mr. Sandaas. I am what I am ;)

BTW, I read earlier Shailesh, Vulture and others taking you apart on mathematics and economics.

Anyways, a brief intro for you on how to evaluate your investments..pls. read closely, else I will have to explain all over again which I am chary of.

You see Rs 10,000 today needs to be discounted by an inflation rate back to 40 years (to 1967). If we assume an average annual inflation rate of 4% or so. Rs 10,000 today would have been worth Rs 2,200 in 1967 (maybe far less, but I am being charitable here).

Now if you take 150 Rs as your principal and final amount of Rs 2,200 over a period of 40 years your actual rate of return is something between 5-6% compounded.
You see, you barely beat the inflation!! And you brag about it?!! LFMAO

So you moron if you had put that money in pension funds or even postal bonds with 9% returns over the duration you might have achieved bragging rights to better returns. A mutual fund would have made you into a multi-millionaire...

Thanks for the jokes. This blog would have been dull and dreary without your bullSandaas :))

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Chawl,

Great economics, conveniently ignoring the potential rent or convince of staying without paying rent.

BTW Rents has always hedged inflation. Kindly don’t argue just for the sake of argument.

I have put my logic to Observer and not anyone else. Kindly see his post for the "Palace property sold at 6000 cr" you will come to know what he has to say now.

Pls. put your money in Mutual fund and post office and crib through out your life about others making money.

Mr. Chawl you deserve to be where you are although I am praying that people in India upgrade, spend and live a great life.

YOU DONT NEED TO KNOW ECONOMICS TO MAKE OR LOOSE MONEY JUST A LITTLE COMMON SENSE.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

Shivaji said...
@ Anonymous (Avinash)


i dont see anything wrong in Pandu's comments. The Mumbai attacks were planned and executed by RSS/BAJRANGIS for political gains, but sadly things went wrong


I doubt your real neme is Shivaji you are singing Paki tune. I am sure you are a cutuvaa.

Ass hole people like you are spoiling the name of your entire community.

Avinash

Anonymous said...

BINDAS BAI, SORRY BHAI,

!! WAKE UP !!

My friend is real state agent since last 10 years and he says he has never seen a month like december. There are virtually no enquires and lots of sellers are calling for new buyers but there aren't any buyers at these prices. Dude, my broker friend is my childhood friends, why will he lie with me?

I can confirm this for COLABA WORLI, BANDRA, ANDHERI.

Nobody is saying prices of house in mumbai will not go up but prices are already on top now and they must fall by 40% atleast before going up again. It has always been like that and it will be like that this time as well. Mumbai prices may double then current rate but that will not happen before 2020.

Jay.