Thursday, May 21, 2009

latest mumbai update

So I was talking to some folks in Mumbai now, realty brokers and otherwise. Everyone is of the consensus prices have dropped, rents are still holding up. Some areas which went to 9k are now at 7k. There is a building built by a Gujju builder, with a total of 15 apts and he is unable to sell even one at 7k. I was telling the broker that if a gujju is unable to find other 15 Gujju's to buy when the prices have dropped by 20%, that means the market is real bad. Everyone knows the amount of money some Gujju businessmen have. I think value is at 5k. so wait and watch.


op said...

vik, can u tell where is this gujju builders building selling at 7k ? then one figure out if its real worth is 5k or not

Anonymous said...

Daily Feed of M&A happening in IT Industry

Anonymous said...

Green is Yellow Weeds...

U.S. Stocks Decline on Jobless Claims, Greenspan Banks Warning May 21 (Bloomberg)

“There is still a very large unfunded capital requirement in the commercial banking system in the United States and that’s got to be funded,” Greenspan said in an interview in Washington. He said “until the price of homes flattens out, we still have a very serious potential mortgage crisis.”

U.K. stocks fell the most in a month after S&P said Britain’s top-level AAA debt rating is more likely to be cut as the government’s finances deteriorate. HSBC Holdings Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc fell more than 2.4 percent in U.S. trading.

Anonymous said...

Bail me out !

Anonymous said...

Hiranandani is asking more maintenance..

Who says prices are low and rent has been reduced…

Hirnadani is asking more maintenance for new building in thane. Hiranandani Estate. Initially the maintains was Rs 1.75 now they are asking Rs 2.25 which does not include property tax.

Hiranandani already took advance maintenance for 24 month @ Rs 1.75 psf per month and just couple of months later are asking maintenance @ 2.25 psf and later they may ask any other charges…

Just imagine for 2 BHK area 999 (built-up are) the maintenance is Rs 2250 and with property tax it might be Rs 4500.

With this how one can expect rent going down…

All are requested to find the solution for this problem and

Anonymous said...

Bindaas bhai, I had asked you a question in last post. But no answer !!!!
So copy pasting it here.

Bindaas bhai @10:20PM.

You ask people to buy at current rate and in your last post you ask for an offer at 04 price.

Aren't you contradicting yourself?

When you ask for offer at 04 price, do you mean current prices dropped to 04 level?

Please provide some more clarification behind asking for an offer of 04 price.

When you yourself ask for 04 price and encourage others to buy at current price doesn't go well bhai.

Anonymous said...

Dear Anon 9:59,

That was a reply to the post which mentioned that properties are available at 04 levels and he/she wanted to sell his/her propery. i was responding to that post.

I would never advise any investor to get in now as i strongly feel equities are better option. I am suggesting to actual user in Mumbai, I feel instead of paying rent and waiting for the property prices to fall it is better he/she buys atleast 1BHK instead of 2BHK.

Trust me i have no selfish interest in Mumbai as I am heavly invested in Pune and that market will take some time to recover.

Bindas Bhai

shayna said...

BB in the prev thread you mentioned the arrival of HNB as a positive devolpment ref support of property prices in CHEMBUR.

Can you tell me how much premium does HNB attract in THANE or PANVEL.

HNB was a novelty when POWAI was built. I remember RNA @ Andheri-E in the early 90s. This complex had a huge ornamental gate (featured in many Govinda movies ) and was one of the first gated communities in Mumbai with the usual trappings of pool, club house etc. RNA then and HNB now are just another builder, and home buyers in MUMBAI and other metros expect a minimum benchmark which most builders now offer as a standard.

Additionally offlate HNB has been attracting a lot of bad press for its corporate governance, a good part of the sheen is off now.

So in Short HNB might be new to CHEMBUR however won't make any diff to prices, the same as the arrival of RAHEJA ACROPOLIS hasn't. A cash buyer will command good bargains.

One point that i meant to highlight in my prev post ref BUDGET SOCIAL HOUSING i.e 1/2 BHK and the emphasis of CONGRESS towrds this segment, is the fact that CONGRESS has realised HOUSING ownership costs are unreasonably high and could cost them dearly in areas with high concentration of middle class i.e. Metros. Any body especially a baniya BHAI or a dudhwala bhaiyya knows Land prices have a ripple effect on COST OF LIVING. This has been recognised globally and will reflect in future house prices in all segments.

I had mentioned in my prv post about purchasing Land in COIMBATORE. My analysis was simple, people and corporates are likely to get fed up of living in congested Metros like MUMBAI with its 19th Century infrastructure and prefer T2 cities with decent educational inst, fair weather and good surrounding for weekend activity. I am chuffed with my analysis, friends who invested in POWAI LAKES and ACROPOLIS in Chembur have seen their investments shrink whilst mine though initially skyrocketed is still there on the clouds.

End of the day RE is as good as the larger economy surrounding it. The economy of MUMBAI is faltering due to high costs and will see a correction on the back of RE.

BB i can picture you having grown up in MUMBAI. You are in your mid-late 20s eastate agent. You have ploughed your profits back into RE and now desperately dreaming of good ole ain't coming back soon biddu.

Naukri dundh ya doosra koi dandha shuru kar.......

Anonymous said...

thanks bindhas bhai for reply.

I have been watching the prices at Goregaon east and west, prices rose from 12-15 lacs for 1bhk flat from 2003 to 30-45 lacs in 2007-08.

Now there are almost no transcations happening, but brokers quote still high prices.

How much it may go down in the mumbai western suburbs, from Andheri till Borivili?

Anonymous said...

last post was reply to bindaas bhai at 11:57PM

Anonymous said...

The builders are upto their no good tricks once again. They are sending SMSs' via Vodafone to customers -- stating that now there is a stable Govt. prices will sky rocket from June onwards - buy now or suffer later. I choose the later. Skyrocket my arse, the IT Industry is in the dumps and even if things seem to be looking up, business is still down 40% from 2006 levels (not 2007 which was really an all time high for almost every industry). A bunch of Arihant builders (for Kharghar) and VINAY Univesal builders for Virar are really getting desperate in their advertising.

Anonymous said...

Prices (RE) will stagnate for maximum one year.

Then they will rise to keep pace with inflation which should be around 10% WPI a year from now. 15-20% CPI.

Steel and cement prices will go up in a rising sawtooth pattern as demand rises, then falls again, repeating ad nauseum. Classic bear market slowly coming out.

Stock prices will collapse once, big time collapse, around August September due to world events. LAst buying opportunity for those (like me) who missed buying in March 09. Thereafter slow rise over 4-5 years (5% compounded return). Commodities will out perform.

Sensible govt will keep rates steady around 7-8%. Bank deposits will give best returns better than RE and stock. India will see slow and steady growth of 5-6%. Stock and RE will slowly recover and a bubble will form around 4-5 years from now - selling opportunity for stock.

Stupid govt would lower rates to 5% or so - will see temporary stock market returns, RE bubble in a year or two, sudden massive oversupply with last 2 years new flats completed, combined with massive bookings made now till december forming an overhang - will cause a big bust some 2-3 years from now. Will cause a bad recession. Terrible for stock, RE and bank deposits as well. I hope Congress doesnt do this stupid thing. 50-50 chance for both scenarios, I think.

Cost of capital will remain high, even with lowered rates. No great returns for RE companies, except with inflation. Luxury flats will have no market and returns on affordable housing which has poor margins will not be great. I would recommend not to invest in RE stock.

As someone said - how can rents decrease when maintenance costs keep rising? Rents and RE prices will stay static from now on. People will not reduce rents in desperation - they will get only poor quality renters who might default on rent or refuse to vacate. The best renters (IT employees) will already have three flats of their own. They will keep their flats locked.

Passed through Dwarka the other night. Full of flats with no lights at all. Just empty. Worth 1 crore each. All empty. Owners will keep them for a few years and then rent for a decent sum and then sell on top of the next bubble.

I am sure of a few things. First, RE prices will never come down in the 1000 sf or less (middle class)segment - 20-30 Lakhs is bargain basement for these depending on location. Already NOIDA, Faridabad and Ghaziabad flats are quoting at 15-20 Lakhs for 800-1000 sf flats. No more fall possible. Only luxury segment of around 2000 sf has potential to come down - more likely they will no longer be made as supply for next 2 years is in abundance.

Lets see how things pan out.


Anonymous said...


Coimbatore will be a poor place for fetching rent. There is abundant land and no end to the supply which can be created.

It is a good place to retire though. So buy a flat if you want to retire there. It has good trains, bus and airport - not good for north people because air fares are too high. Good for Bombay, Bangalore and Chennai. Water supply is adequate. Employment avenues will keep imcreasing.

But it will never move to premium - so no outsized RE returns. That will only be in the metros.

However a 20 year investment in RE may fetch great returns in Coimbatore - which has better weather than Mangalore, another good RE destination.


Anonymous said...

MoveTime Oct 09 "The Biggest Swindle" Michale Moore - It would be too easy — and the wrong lesson learned — to put Bernie on TIME's list all by himself. If Ponzi schemes are such a bad thing, then why have we allowed all of our top banks to deal in credit default swaps and other make-believe rackets? Why did we allow those same banks to create the scam of a sub-prime mortgage? And instead of putting the people responsible in the cell block in Lower Manhattan, where Bernie now resides, why did we give them huge sums of our hard-earned tax dollars to bail them out of their self-inflicted troubles? Bernard Madoff is nothing more than the scab on the wound. He's also a most-needed and convenient distraction. Where's the photo on this list of the ex-chairmen of AIG, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup? Where's the mug shot of Phil Gramm, the senator who wrote the bill to strip the system of its regulations, or of the President who signed that bill? And how 'bout those who ran the fake numbers at the ratings agencies, the lobbyists who succeeded in making sleazy accounting a lawful practice, or the stock market itself — an institution that's treated like the Holy Sepulchre instead of the casino that it is (and, like all other casinos, the house eventually wins).

Anonymous said...

Finding a needle in a haystack

Though market is changing one has to be very careful about what is improving & what is deteriorating. The boom of past in certain sectors will not come back. IT boom, Financial
boom, Luxury housing is the story of past. People have to adjust the future expectations
with the changing environment, you can’t plan based on 10-20% annual rise in salaries.
Fall in salaries is taking down the inflation.

“Attitudes towards credit, discretionary spending and homeownership have changed, and
the change is secular in nature, not merely cyclical, meaning that this shift towards frugality
is going to last for years”.
A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers, by Metro Area

“In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the eleventh straight month that has happened. Further, none of the cities managed to avoid month-to-month declines for the fifth month in a row”.

Robert Schiller’s talk on housing

Wall St Crisis wipes out jobs & pay on main St.

“In New York City alone, bonuses fell to $18.4 billion last year from $32.9 billion in 2007, the largest absolute drop ever, according to the state comptroller’s office”.

Computer software exports dip 96% in March due to downturn

“India’s software exports suffered a severe setback in March declining by 96.6% to $1 million from the year-ago period due to recession in world’s major economies like the US and the Europe”.

So guys let it fall then only pick up, minimum 50% price cut is guarantee.


Anonymous said...

By: Varun Singh Date: 2009-05-23 Place:Mumbai

Despite 20 to 50 per cent fall in real estate prices in best buildings, buyers still play the waiting game

Owning a house in Malabar Hill or in Andheri's posh Lokhandwala area has probably been a distant dream for many Mumbaikars, as real estate prices in these areas were sky-high.

But since October 2008, the rates in these and other posh areas in Worli, Prabhadevi, Bandra, Juhu and Versova, have dropped by a significant 20 per cent.

No takers: Areas such as Lower Parel that were asking for nearly Rs 28,000 per sq ft till a few months ago have come down to Rs 14,000.

Yet, there has been no mad rush to purchase property in these areas as buyers expect the prices to go further down.

A week ago, a flat in Malabar Hill's II Palazzo building was sold at the rate of Rs 56,000 per sq ft.

Surprising, because last year, the rate was more than double, at Rs 1,20,000 per sq ft.

According to Yashwant Dalal, a real estate agent from South Mumbai, and president of the Estate Agents' Association of India, the real estate market is stagnating.

Buildings that were commanding rates of nearly Rs 70,000-90,000 per sq ft, even a few months back, are still unable to find buyers, even though the rates have come down by 50 per cent.

"A builder was demanding nearly Rs 25 crore for a 4,800 sq ft pent house in Worli. He has now reduced the price to Rs 20 crore, but still can't find a buyer," said Dalal.

In another building at Appa Saheb Marg in Prabhadevi, the rate has come down from Rs 55,000 per sq ft to approximately Rs 28,000.

Dalal said that areas such as Lower Parel that were asking for nearly Rs 28,000 per sq ft till a few months back have come down to Rs 14,000, but again, there are hardly any buyers.

Same case scenario

The situation is the same in other parts of the city such as Bandra and Andheri. Sangeet Kumar, an estate agent in the western suburbs, says the rates there too have come down drastically.

Juhu Scheme, which demanded not less than Rs 22,000 per sq ft six to eight months back, is now offering a flat at a good location for Rs 16-17,000 per sq ft.

"The rates haven't come down, rather they have been corrected. However, buyers are still waiting. They want the rates in Juhu to come down to Rs 14,000 per sq ft," said Kumar.

Still a dream...

Experts are happy that the rates in these posh localities have come down, but they are not optimistic about the common man being able to buy his dream home here.

According to Ajay Chaturvedi, a real estate expert, "Right now, the drop is nearly 25 per cent. I expect it to fall further.

However, it would take another 20 years for the rate to come to the level where the common man can afford a home in these localities, as the builders are never going to reduce the price to what it was way back in 2000."

Added Dalal, "A year ago, I sold a flat in Prabhadevi at the rate of Rs 55,000 sq ft. Three years ago, it demanded only Rs 6,000 per sq ft."

Anonymous said...

this article is specially for bindas bhai-who brags about mumbai

anita said...

For people like Bindas Bhai read the views of The Happionaire.

He says real estate will take decades to go back.


Bharat said...

Anonymouse@8:36 PM and Anonymous@11:45 PM

Its interesting and instructive to read articles such as the first article by Varun Singh. It has a very clear bias and the way these reports have been written to malign buyers instead of the poor and hapless builders and real estate agents that its almost hilarious.

The very first few sentences talks about buyers playing "the waiting game". Which makes it look like buyers are predators and speculators who take advantage of the poor builders and real estate agents.

Secondly the article talks about "a correction" already taking place and yet buyers are playing games. I remember I had seen a flat in Lokhandwala in 2004 when it had already shot up from 24 lacs to 32 lacs. I had to go back to India after10 months and decided to check out the same apartment. Now the price of the same apartment(sold by the builder) was 52 lacs!!!! No rising cost of cement, steel or anything to blame here..just blind greed and speculation.

Then the article goes on to talk about some super luxury homes having declined almost 50% and then makes out a case for buyers saying that the correction has happened and now it will not happen why not go out and buy?

Time and again folks here have stated and reiterated that most buyers are not businessmen. They are not playing a "game". A house is a major "liability" which people have to incur. Its illiquid and a constant drain on one's income via maintenance, emi's and taxes galore. And its a burden one has to carry for the next 15 years or so. So why would one make the commitment unless it made tremendous financial sense. Unless houses fall 50-70% its the builders and real estate agents who have played a game and suckered home buyers. Truth is that RE was never a decent investment vehicle and never will be...unless one is crooked and is able to time the markets - buy during corrections and sell during bubbles. With waiting periods of 5-10 years in between..

When the market rises in a bubble mode, home owners/investors also become speculators and increase rental rates and their prices. When bubbles burst, home prices and rentals have plummeted. Check history..and the same will happen without exception. The most famous last words for bubbles have been "this time its different". The fact that the likes of BB continue to say - this time its different and prices will go up 50% from here just tells me that the bubble mode is still in effect and it makes sense to wait for a couple of years more.

Lastly, for all stock market speculators - please plan your exits asap, the market is about to plummet and give a nice buying opportunity.

Anonymous said...

Just spoke to a banker in Mumbai. he said no transactions are taking place at current prices. Still many builders are not lowering prices. so its a standoff for now

Anonymous said...

Builders will lower prices only after distressed properties sell for lower prices. They have a cartel and they have made so much money that they can sit on huge inventory. Builders will lower prices when they get a DANDA on their back.

Anonymous said...

Expect continuity, not radical reform

“The stock market has zoomed 20% hoping that the Congress victory will usher in radical economic reforms that were earlier thwarted by the Left

Front. This is a serious error. The Congress sees its victory as a vote for continuity, not radical change. Having won despite a global recession, its policy will surely be more of the same”.

Rising unemployment raises threat of social crisis: World Bank

“World economic recovery will be slow and rising unemployment could bring the threat of social crisis and protectionism, World Bank

President Robert Zoellick said in an interview with Spanish Sunday newspaper El Pais”.

Anonymous said...

Satyam may sack 7,500-8,000 non-billable staff from June

“Satyam Computer is likely to sack most of its non-billable staff of up to 8,000 working in marketing, HR and administration wings, after Tech Mahindra takes charge of the company from June”.

Anonymous said...


You sound like someone who is desperately wanting to come back to Chembur but like most of us cannot afford :-(

I think most of us who are writing has seen the US RE market crash and are expecting the same from Mumbai.

Let all of us pray and one day we will see the market crashing. God only will knows when, in one year or five years.

All the best to all you guys who are waiting to buy a house in Mumbai.


BTW: Before HN comming to God Bunder road no one was buying property over there. HN has not only created market but are still selling RE at 4k+ maybe more.

Please do your homework before questioning anyone or getting personal :-)

Anonymous said...

Looks like you work for hn,about shayna coming back to chembur is not your problem it is hers

Anonymous said...

I think BB and Vulture are real contributors to this blog. Instead of getting personal and discouraging them, we must look at their views with open mind.

Vulture and BB have been fairly good at their judgment. Prices have fallen in lot of areas and as BB said in Mumbai only certain pockets have corrected. I am quiet impressed with BB's formula.(3X of 2000 price)

Now if BB says prices will go up im Mumbai by 50% in three years, should we shrug it off or look at it seriously. Time and again BB has proved us wrong. Let us wait and watch.

Just a thought!!

Vandana Mohan

Anonymous said...

Vandana Ji,
I think the prices since 2000 should go up @ of inflation and not 3X as suggested by BB. If a house was worth 40 lacs in 2000 should not be worth 1.2 crores now.

I thinking BB is drinking kool aid. He seems to be a PIMP.

I feel that India is going down the track of misery and there would be a social unrest in a year or two. Massive layoffs are coming especially when Indians are now used to higher lifestyles. This social unrest will cause the Govt. to fail and we would see re-elctions within 1-2 years.

RE will keep going down for another 4-5 years and will over correct. House that was worth say 1.5 crores at the peak is worth close to 1.2CR today and would be worth 40-50lacs in 3-4 years.

Stack up your cash. Cash is King.

--RE Future

Anonymous said...

BB is a joke. Posts comments here as different people and praises himself. A sorry loser who has put his money into real estate, failed miserably and now by acting so stupidly is also having a failing mind.

This is not a personal comment on BB but a professional evaluation from someone who is used to dealing with such mental cases. Do not humor BB it will merely encourage him to do more buffoonery.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
BB is a joke. Posts comments here as different people and praises himself. A sorry loser who has put his money into real estate, failed miserably and now by acting so stupidly is also having a failing mind.

This is not a personal comment on BB but a professional evaluation from someone who is used to dealing with such mental cases. Do not humor BB it will merely encourage him to do more buffoonery.

8:57 PM

The above comment looks very professional. :-)

Mirchi lag raha hai. Sachaai kadwi lagtee hai dost!!

I am happy people over here are talking about me although more of negative i know this is purely out of frustration. Relax keep your cool and watch how things unfolding. I am pretty sure that Mumbai will see minimum 50% increase in three years.

Time alone will decide you the winners and the losers.

Minimum 50% increase for Mumbai in three years. Pls. do not time the market, go ahead and buy before the rain ends. I mean this year :-)

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...


You sound very desperate and frustrated for not having brought a property in Mumbai.

Your post is not worth commenting because you have written exactly the opposite than the reality. I remember earlier post you had mentioned that Congress govt coming will bring down the property prices.

I guess this the biggest joke so far i have ever heard in this forum.

BTW don’t visualise about me I guess you can be more loyal to your partner.

Minimum 50% increase in 3 years for Mumbai. Go ahead and buy before end of rains this year.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Just spoke to a banker in Mumbai. he said no transactions are taking place at current prices. Still many builders are not lowering prices. so its a standoff for now

11:08 AM

Home loan disbursements by the country’s top lenders, which signal the actual demand for homes, is also improving. HDFC, the country’s largest home loan lender, saw its disbursals going up by 17.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY09, at Rs 12,400 crore. While LIC Housing saw an increase of 42 per cent and 22 per cent in March and Q4 numbers, respectively

Pls. go and speak to the banker again.

Minimum 50% increase in 3 years for Mumbai. Go ahead and buy before end of rains this year.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

Lull over, realty ready to roar again

Raghavendra Kamath & Gautam Chakravorthy / Mumbai May 25, 2009, 0:37 IST

Do you see early signs of a revival in the realty sector?

Yes, and we are getting early signs even in the premium end. But, then, these are very tentative signs. One can be sure and more confident once the new government is in place. It will start to some extent in October-November. But then, if this does not happen then we are in for trouble.

Do you see a further price correction in the days to come?

No, I believe most developers have realised that they need to bring prices down for the middle class. If they only have to chase high-end clients, who already have two or three homes, how many more will they buy? It only leads to speculation. Home loan interest rates too, have to come down further.

Do you suggest that people buy now?

Yes, a buyer today is getting something that was at a higher price earlier. Second, whatever be the stated price, it is up for negotiation. Even if it is 20 per cent less than the quoted price, there is room to wriggle out another 15 per cent. Many developers who bought land in the suburbs where prices are lower have reduced their expectations and are offering projects at lower prices.

Real estate market could recover by Diwali

23 May 2009, 0952 hrs IST, Sandeep Sadh,

Minimum 50% increase in 3 years for Mumbai. Go ahead and buy before end of rains this year.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
thanks bindhas bhai for reply.

I have been watching the prices at Goregaon east and west, prices rose from 12-15 lacs for 1bhk flat from 2003 to 30-45 lacs in 2007-08.

Now there are almost no transcations happening, but brokers quote still high prices.

How much it may go down in the mumbai western suburbs, from Andheri till Borivili?

3:46 AM

Now the prices will not go down but you may still get a good deal if you do your homework right. I would advise you to close the deal without sounding desperate and with proper homework.

All the best. Pls. dont work with just one broker have multiple.

Minimum 50% increase in 3 years for Mumbai. Go ahead and buy before end of rains this year.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

BB you sound so desperate for people to go out and buy, why dont YOU just go and buy some if you are so sure of 50% increase. yes now I know u will say u are heavily invested in pune, in that case Pune isnt going to rise 50%, so I say sell there now while u can any buy in Mumbai , and BEFORE the rains end :D !!

Anonymous said...

One thing is for sure, BB seems to be in a frenzy now, he is posting 5-6 comments in a day and trying to convince people about the next RE boom.

This could be because the RE market sounds like it could boom now, which as we all know is highly unlikely.

Or, its about to crash and this is causing tremendous stress to BB, which is highly likely.

I think going by the spate of posts by BB, I would recommend, waiting and watching the decline of RE in mumbai.

Minimum 50% discount in Mumbai in the next 6 months.

-Samajhdar Behan.

Anonymous said...

We are in Vicious circle. So much for the Green shoots and stock market bulls!!! Ready to strike India very soon!

May 25, 2009
Job Losses Push Safer Mortgages to ForeclosureBy PETER S. GOODMAN and JACK HEALY
As job losses rise, growing numbers of American homeowners with once solid credit are falling behind on their mortgages, amplifying a wave of foreclosures.

In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.

With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy.

“We’re about to have a big problem,” said Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin. “Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.”

“We’re right in the middle of this third wave, and it’s intensifying,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s “That loss of jobs and loss of overtime hours and being forced from a full-time to part-time job is resulting in defaults. They’re coast to coast.”

Those sliding into foreclosure today are more likely to be modest borrowers whose loans fit their income than the consumers of exotically lenient mortgages that formerly typified the crisis.

But their truck driving business collapsed last year when the mill closed. Mr. Richards has since worked occasional stints for local trucking companies. His wife has failed to find clerical work.

“Every month that goes by, you get a little further behind,” Mr. Richards said.

Last June, they missed their first payment, and they have since slipped $10,000 into arrears. They are trying to persuade their bank to cut their payments ahead of a foreclosure sale.

From November to February, the number of prime mortgages that were delinquent at least 90 days, were in foreclosure or had deteriorated to the point that the lender took possession of the home increased more than 473,000, exceeding 1.5 million, according to a New York Times analysis of data provided by First American CoreLogic, a real estate research group. Those loans totaled more than $224 billion.

During the same period, subprime mortgages in those three categories increased by fewer than 14,000, reaching 1.65 million. The number of similarly troubled Alt-A loans — those given to people with slightly tainted credit — rose 159,000, to 836,000.

Over all, more than four million loans worth $717 billion were in the three distressed categories in February, a jump of more than 60 percent in dollar terms compared with a year earlier.

But three months after the program was announced, a Treasury spokeswoman, Jenni Engebretsen, estimated the number of loans that have been modified at “more than 10,000 but fewer than 55,000.”

In the first two months of the year alone, another 313,000 mortgages landed in foreclosure or became delinquent at least 90 days, according to First American CoreLogic.

“I don’t think there’s any chance of government measures making more than a small dent,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.


Anonymous said...

There has been a lot of talk about the nexus between builder & politician. These are petty criminals but the bigger one is out of sight. Let’s explore the nexus between bankers, brokers (real estate developer/company) and government machinery.

During the boom period (2001-2008) the prices of the assets most notabley residential/commercial real estates (lands) zoomed.
In spite of knowing that it was a speculative bubble, the banks lent the money loosely. So why did the banks take the massive risks? There comes "Moral Hazard" into picture. The party which is taking risk knows very well that there are high chances of investment going bad but should it go bad, it would pass the risk to somebody else.

Lets take the example of a project. The bank manager sanctions a big loan to the developer. The bank knows very well that the valuation quoted by the builder for the land doesn’t justify the actual value also the assets if at all pledged by the borrower doesn’t hold a real value. The bank takes a risk. The builder starts a project. Now the speculators who have made a killing in the stock market will put notional money and buy the flats. They constitute about 50-60% of the buyers. The speculator is going to flip the property once he finds a gullible home buyer. The builder advertises that 50% of flats are sold out and trap the genuine buyers. All goes well. The real problem here is that now the home buyers which bought the overpriced flats will work throughout their life to repay the loan. They are the one who are going to make sure that the gamble played by the Bank is awarded handsomely.

Now reverse the case. The bank has sanctioned a huge loan and builder (real estate company) launches a project with grandiose claims about the amenities and finds that there are no buyers in the market. The bank goes panicky and starts demanding the money back. The builder tells the bank that he has already spent that money on purchasing some other land instead of using it for the intended purpose. So the builder offers to return the land. Make no mistake,t he bank is not fool because it knows very well that it will get only peanuts for the foreclosed property. (the Bank is already having a few foreclosed properties and has incurred heavy losses.) One more reason why the banks can’t accumulate the foreclosed properties is that if it brings all the foreclosed properties at a time in the market it will further drive down the prices. So it takes a calibrated approach. Introduce a few properties a time and taste the blood.

So the bank gives leeway to the builder and converts a short term loan to a long term loan. This does soothe the headache of the borrower but plants a long term residual pain. The bank has pushed the risk for the time being and will explore other avenues e.g. teaser rate. The banks will come up with new loan product of very low introductory to sucker in new buyers. So this is not the story of a single builder and there are multitudes of them. The bank will request the Central Bank (Government Machinery) to lower key rates e.g. CRR, Repo rate. Forget about the lowering the interest rates of the existing borrowers.

Now the central bank doesn’t have to deal with the single bank which has taken a massive loan. -:)

So the builders, politicians are just the pickpocketers, chain snatchers compared to the Banks aka Dacoits.

It will be interesting to know how far the crooked banks can help their real estate friends.

-- one sincere request lets not spend our hard earned money to pay for the risky gamble played by somebody else...

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous at 6:17
Excellent analysis. Wish more such truths are given in the mainstream media, but that is too much to expect. The reason the bubble will collapse will be because of the inability of the end-users (suckers). Once this market runs out of fools, it will burst. As long as the greater foll buys it from the lesser fool, expect the market to stand. Once the last greater fool has purchased, that's the end of the boom.

Anonymous said...

In India housing was never affordable to middle class people. Everyone knows people used to describe it as a lifetime achievement. But in last 3 years it became a distant dream, which is called as bubble. Indian economy witnessed a good economic expansion in last 4 years but the rise in housing prices was in tandem to growth. Usually market overshoot in the phase of expansion & later on correction in the phase of consolidation can be described by crash.

Why housing is unaffordable even though you have a descent job in India?
Because the descent job can’t afford you house in India, it’s merely to take care of your expenses. Because of such low wages no one wants to work in India, everyone wants to work abroad. Majority of the people who bought RE were working abroad or were related to export growth. In 2006, I know 4 friends who went abroad for non IT jobs; everywhere in the world, there were good requirements for Indian labor. So the foreign income supported the RE speculations. In domestic market in the hope of 10-20% salary rise per year, local people speculated RE.

Now what has changed?
World’s top economies are in terrible trouble, they are expelling out the foreign workers. The dependent economies (Middle East) are in bad shape.
The argument that Indian economy is less affected by global slowdown is good, but this economic condition can only support slums. The growing GDP magic is in the Indian population.
Multiply the high number (of population) by small amount still the number will come out high; it doesn’t mean individual income has risen.

So guys let it fall then only pick up, minimum 50% price cut is guarantee.


Anonymous said...

Instead of understanding the cause of bubble, some people are still giving old sermons.
RE price bubble depends on the growth of credit. In past the sources of credit were limited. Path pedhi (local credit unions), co-operative banks, high net individuals, businessmen, politicians, black marketers & banks were the only sources of credit to builders. The new source of credit caused the RE bubble in India & the new source is currently undergoing stress. This means builders are under stress.
Builders have minted huge money & they can hold indefinitely, this is just half story. After making exorbitant profits, builders re-invested the money in land purchases & due to economic downturn the prices of non-performing land assets went down. Means on books the value of lands are high but in market the value is much less. In future these assets may be valuable but as of today it’s illiquid & builders need cash. Banks can re-structure the loans but builders need to pay interest [Open market 24% or Banks 13%]. It means daily hold is daily loss.

What is the rational price?
The rational expectation view is that the prices that are anticipated next week, next month & next year determine the prices that prevails today, in effect a backward looking view from the future to the present.

Is RE Crash a hope OR reality?
People who have not seen the bubble will not understand the crash.
Collapsing housing bubbles are characterized by illiquidity, a sudden collapse in transactions. Buyers and sellers seem to disappear. Then price correction happens slowly. Just to give an example of boom time, one of my onsite friend in US bought 10,000USD on credit card with 0% APR & send this money to his home to speculate on RE. To accumulate 5 Lakh down payment amount we know how many years one has to work. These are the things of past which will never come back.

Some brokers & builders who had lost opportunity are now trying to convince in forum about rational pricing. Even in peak time if you couldn’t sell, how come you will succeed in slump?

So guys let it fall then only pick up, minimum 50% price cut is guarantee.


Jayant said...

@Anonymous 6:17 AM

Good analysis!

Anonymous said...

For people who think House prices don't go down or are thinking that the market will go up:

Japan Home Prices Slump to 24-Year Low as Recession Deepens
By Katsuyo Kuwako

March 23 2009 (Bloomberg) — Japanese residential land prices fell to a 24-year low as job losses and wage cuts discouraged homebuyers, while tighter credit markets choked off funding for property developers.

Residential land prices fell 3.2 percent in 2008 to the lowest since 1984 and average commercial land prices dropped 4.7 percent to a three-year low, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said today in a report. Overall property prices declined 3.5 percent, erasing two years of gains that followed a 15-year slump.

The decline in residential land values, which are about half of what they were at the height of Japan’s bubble economy in 1991, may continue as the recession deepens. The central bank forecasts the sharpest economic contraction in more than 60 years as an unprecedented decline in exports forces companies to cut production and fire workers.

Anonymous said...

Avoid commercial real estate financing: RBI to coop banks

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday instructed state and central co-operative banks to desist from financing the commercial real estate sector, as exposure in this sensitive area would not be in their interest."

Anonymous said...

yawn, yawn, yawn.

same old boring stuff.

Vik, i would now request you to start now India housing boom blog. That will give us some different prespective.

Anonymous said...

ARKOLKATA: The slump in global real estate markets has thrown open lucrative opportunities for Indian HNI investors. The near 25-35% fall in property Buying a house? Quote price
EMIs and tenure
Land as investment
prices in Australia, US, UK, South Africa and markets closer home like the Gulf and Singapore, has triggered a huge surge in demand from Indian buyers keen to invest in overseas property.

Realty brokers claim Mumbai and Delhi - which usually lead the pack in overseas property deals - are witnessing nearly 100% growth in such transactions since February with some 25-to-30 such transactions taking place every month. Brokers claim buyers in cities like Surat, Bhubaneshwar, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Kolkata and Amritsar are also showing interest.

"It’s really a good time to buy property overseas since prices in most of these markets are even cheaper than in some top Indian cities. The demand is more in Dubai, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Australia and London," C.B. Richard Ellis CMD (South Asia) Anshuman Magazine told ET.

There are plenty of projects in Dubai which are selling at a price band of Rs 2,500-5,000 per sq.ft. Land in the UK countryside as in Cheshire is being sold for Rs 1,100 per sq.ft., while that in Helsby at just Rs 370 per sq.ft. By comparison, prices in some major Indian realty hotspots are equally competitive - flats in Gurgaon are priced at Rs 3,000-5,000 per sq.ft, in Kolkata’s Rajarhat at Rs 2,800-3,500 per sq.ft. and Navi Mumbai between Rs 1,800 and Rs 6,000 per sq.ft.

In the US, home prices have reportedly fallen in nine out of ten cities. Brokers claim realty prices in cities like Fort Myers (Florida), Saginaw (Michigan), Akron (Ohio), San Francisco, Riverside and San Jose (California) have dropped by more than 40%. What’s more, nearly 40-odd islands are up for sale in Australia at three year old prices - one can grab an island for A$ 1.3 million.

Also Read
→ PEs homing in on affordable buys
→ Real estate market could recover by Diwali
→ Million-dollar home dreams vanish as realty dawns
→ Property buyers begin value picks

The ambassador of Ireland in India Kenneth Thompson, said the global meltdown has reduced property prices in Ireland by 25%. "As a result, we are now seeing several Indian HNIs and NRIs buying property in Ireland, especially holiday homes in western parts of the country," he said.

Even as a pure play investment option, foreign real estate is becoming attractive. "In fact, several of the buyers plan to give their flats on rent. Even now, the return on investment through rental earnings is around 10-12% in the US compared to a 2-5% return in India," said Jones Lang Lasalle Meghraj associate director Mayank Saksena.

The Gulf and UK are turning into investor havens due to their investor-friendly regulations. For instance, in UAE a foreigner does not need to pay tax on income on purchase and sale of property. Similarly, Qatar, too, is turning out to be a good option since it is a tax-free country.

"Even three years back, some of these markets had strict regulations for foreigners buying property. However, the liberalised policies in the backdrop of the global real estate slump is now a big trigger," REBI head (East) Hemant Sikaria said. REBI has handled several overseas deals in Dubai and the Southeast Asia.

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Comments to the Editor
The one hedge against inflation and protection of wealth has always be|


Anonymous said...

In December of 1994, the economists sent a questionnaire to four chairmen of multinational companies, former finance ministers from four countries, four Oxford University students, and four garbagemen. They were asked to predict average economic prospects including world economic growth, inflation, the price of oil, and the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar in the ten years following 1994. The economists said the garbagemen and company bosses tied for first with the predictions. The finance ministers came in last.

Extracted from the book The Options Course by George Fontanills.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous @ 3:16 AM

I have seen these kind of reports time and again. Including how a monkey was asked to choose stocks and managed to beat all the stock market analysts without knowing what he/she was doing. Similarly someone was throwing darts and managed to beat the market.

Maybe this is true, but in how many cases will this hold true? Also, even if this is true, will anyone switch their analyst to consult the monkey? Will the monkey or the garbage men always be this accurate?

Such studies are meant to sensationalize and be a talking point. But there is nothing more to it. Analysts/Economists are people who have devoted their lives to this profession and are fairly accurate they sometimes make statements due to influences from their job place or pressure from the TV channels..

Bharat said...

I came across this interesting graph from an analysis by Credit Suisse on the US mortgage market.

The graph very clearly indicates that at the current juncture we are in the trough between two large waves. The coming wave is going to comprise of Alt-A and Option ARM resets, not to mention prime loans defaulting due to rising job losses...

So after some time when the next shoe drops, we should see the Dow/Financial Sector tanking and possible stagnating at that level till 2011. In this scenario, one can understand that the spillover is going to have an associative effect all over the globe.

Also, one note to Vulture. I hope your friend has repaid the credit card debt. Taking out $ 10K in credit card debt and investing in Indian RE during the peak is committing financial suicide in multiple ways. People who have done such bizarre things in a hurry to get rich, should think of their dependents before over committing like this.


Anonymous said...


In the past i have read in your blog about court judgements in favour of buyers... I need the link to the threads. We (Group of 7owners)are taking legal action against my builders for charging me extradinary charges and not giving me possession of the property..

Appreciate in case if you could suggest me better ways to search your blog...

All others any help that you provide in this matter is well appreciated..

I know its painful to get in to the legal course but we dont have any other option...

My advice to other people who want to buy its better to buy finished property which can be occupied the next day of sale... No point in doing any booking in under construction property.... All builders are cheats..

Anonymous said...

I would buy RE in England any day if I had the money. For 1 crore one can get a very nice independent house. Unfortunately I dont have a crore.

A crore will buy huge agricultural land in Canada. As far as the eye can see with farm house thrown in.


Anonymous said...

Yawn, yawn, yawn…….

No sale, sleep again for a while. After sleep curse some one for zero business.

Shriniwas K said...

Bhai says he is heavily invested in Pune, I am ready to buy a good house upto 35 lakh in Aundh - anybody ready to sell?

I hear conflicting reports from all new projects. They quote 4500-5000 for Aundh /Kothrud areas, and when I ask how many flats they have sold they lie saying that very few are remaining, I asked the actual contractor building the project, he said not even a single unit has sold in certain projects(only the ones earmarked for the previous owners of the land whose houses were demolished to build the apartment show up as "booked"). Even those people who booked paying 3-5 lakh, are either demanding instant possession or reduction in rate. I still think in Pune the rates will not collapse as Mumbai rates are high, people from Mumbai see Pune as an option. At the same time if Navi mumbai or suburban mumbai rates were to reduce, Pune will follow suit

here are rates from my actual experience - for Kothrud

1991-93 - Rs 600 to Rs 750 per sq ft

1993-95 - 1100-1500 rs psft

1995-97 end (Deve gowda) 2000-2100 Per sq ft **PEAK**

1998-2000 1800-1600 per sq ft **BUST**
2001-04 mid 1700-2200 per sq ft **STABLE**
2004 end - 05 mid - 2200-3200 psft
2005-2008 3500-5000 psft
2008 mid to 2009 march5000-4000 on paper/ but willingness to come down to 3500 for incomplete projects.

Now while I am certain we wont hit 2004 rates

Pune's Aundh Area which has become more coveted is just around exact same amount as outer Kothrud. Extension of Aundh has gone down to 2600 psft from peak of 3200-3500.

One thing is certain - buyers from Mumbai will sooner or later stop buying in Pune as soon as Navi Mumbai starts looking good.

Also I spoke to my friend who is a manager in HDFC he said that the banks that are saying that transactions have increased are mainly due to people investing in plots and own construction in smaller tier 2-3 cities like Nagpur, Aurangabad, Hubli, Mysore, Coimbatore, Jaipur, Kanpur, Baroda, Mohali, Ludhiana, and extension areas of the suburbs of the big 8 cities. Please verify this as many would think that the flats constructed/planned by builders in big cities have NOT been sold. Supply still is huge - and artificial scarcity is still being spun by the media like today's ET rental rates article.

I don't see any merit in buying pieces of land bottled and sold as plots, unless proper amenities of water, Drainage, electricity and approach road are provided. (I laugh at the term cul de sac being used by some builders - what is the use of a cul de sac, if poor children defecate on its side.)

Anonymous said...

Check out the impact of Real Estate on IT industry at IT SEZ Parks Updates

Anonymous said...


Thanks, I have more of land in Pune and also commercial properties, yes i do have couple of apartments in One North, a project by Panchshil developer in Hadapsar. The minimum area is around 3200 which far exceeds the budget which you have mentioned.

If you are still interested i would request you to call the developer, find out the current price and then need be we can sit on the table.

Minimum 50% increase in 3 years for Mumbai. Go ahead and buy before end of rains this year.

Bindas Bhai

Anonymous said...

The rates you have given for Pune are on much higher side than actual. I myself bought a flat in Pune for 7.5 lakhs (500 sq.ft) in Paud Road area (very nice area near MIT) in 2004.

Anonymous said...

check out the NHB Residex link which shows the current rates have not decreased compared 2007 as told by media.

but in banglore there is a substantial decrease


Anonymous said...

@ Shriniwas 6:38 PM

The rate Rs 4500-5000 sq ft for Aundh is simply outrageous. My relative bought a 1BHK flat on D.P Road Aundh near Sasken Communication for Rs 1100 sq ft in 2005. What the heck has changed between 2005 and 2008 to increase the prices four fold?

Just dont go for it. Let these speculators aka real estate brokers, reckless IT guys crush under the ballooning EMIs. There are no fundamentals whatsoever to support these overpriced flats.

The real estate industry/lobby is experience the chest pain ( credit crunch) and it is just a matter of time for it suffers from the severe cardiac arrest.

Shriniwas K said...

@everyone who replied

Thanks for your advise.

To Be honest a lot did change from 2004-2008. With so many companies setting shop in Hinjewadi and a lot of new happenings around the bypass, completing the 4 lanes of the Western Bypass, and also the 5 man approaches to it (Sinhagad, Warje, Chandni Chowk, Baner, Hinjewadi) make it very well connected and stable area for at least the next 2 decades. Also with the freeway like grade separation of old Mumbai pune highway a lot of eastern traffic now diverted onto old Mumbai Pune Rd, thankfully easing burden on the bypass.

Of course I do not justify rates of 4000 in Aundh but certainly accept 2500-3000 and 2100-2500 in annexe

IMHO you should also see the price I am paying wont be large for me as I work in US. Because even if prices are going to fall, they certainly wouldnt fall that much as to make be paying a mortgage of
more than the property's value (as it happened in the US and people just foresaked the house)

In 2004, the rates were low because for 4 years no one had bought big. The next 3 years May be like that but then one also has to see that the salary if not quadrupled has at least tripled for everyone. But builders want to eat up all the income in housing. Ideally I would be more than happy to buy at 2 times the lower side rate of 2004, but not above 3 times.

Bhai if he corrects his formula and says 2.5 times 2004 rates,I will agree with him and say this probably is a better bargain. the rates will never go BELOW 2004 ones. (else we will have people from Bangladesh buying up all houses :D )

I am from the Software sector and don't see any reason why people are blaming IT for the bubble. It is no one's fault that the Re-$ conversion is what it is now. So paying employees more was the only options for companies to retain employees, else they would break away and form their own company billing from US directly.

Anonymous said...

@ Shriniwas 11:16 PM

~ With so many companies setting shop in Hinjewadi and a lot of new happenings around the bypass…

Now these shops are applying every trick in the book to trim the costs and improve “Operational Efficiency". These shops were in euphoric frenzy because of the credit driven "booming" economy in the US. Now the credit tap has dried and we can see the ripple effects. The central nerve system e.g. real/shadow banking system which provides the credit is in jeopardy. So it is just a matter of time before few of these dependent shops go bust.

I request checking the latest article on the status of Banks in US.

Number of US banks at risk to rise againBy Sarah O’Connor in Washington
Published: May 27 2009 22:04 | Last updated: May 27 2009 22:04

“The first-quarter results are telling us that the banking industry still faces tremendous challenges and that, going forward, asset quality remains a major concern,” Sheila Bair, who chairs the FDIC, said on Wednesday. “Bank failures continued to mount and they will continue to do so.”

The number of banks on its “problem list” hit 305. These are institutions the FDIC considers at high risk, though the designation does not necessarily mean they will fail. Many are nursed back to health or acquired by a healthy institution.

Small and large banks alike are being hurt as people struggle to pay mortgage, loan and credit-card debts. Banks set aside more than $60.9bn against projected losses on loans in the first quarter, as the number of loans at least 90 days past due hit the highest level since 1991. Richard Brown, FDIC chief economist, said a second wave of losses could strike as commercial property loans deteriorated. “That probably hasn’t hit with full force at this point.
~ IMHO you should also see the price I am paying wont be large for me as I work in US

Why should I pay the exorbitant prices even if I have the ability to do so by the virtue of income being in dollars? By doing so we are just making the housing out of reach for other people who work in India.

~ the salary if not quadrupled has at least tripled for everyone

Considering you are working in US, has you salary increased from $60,000 (hypothetical figure) to $1,80,000 ? Has any of your friends who is working in Indian IT company ( located in Hinjewadi, Pune) has seen the salary ( amount deposited in the account at the end of the month, please dont tell us about the figure mentioned in the offer/promotion letter) going from Rs 25,000 to 75,000.

~ I am from the Software sector and don't see any reason why people are blaming IT for the bubble.

I request you to work in one of Indian IT companies at offshore (Pune) and check the bulletin messages. You will find a large number of speculators posting Ads about new project or doing the business of real estate brokers.

Anonymous said...


You forgot to say

"Dont time dont time dont time"

AlpanaDhole said...


Good to read all comments

What would you say about Megerpatta city and surrounding area and PMC developments.
What would be rates there for the project like Amanora/Marvel/Kumar Properties?


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