Thursday, December 10, 2009

Telangana effect on Hyderbad real estate

After the Satyam/Maytas fiasco, the crisis surrounding the bifurcation of AP and the creation of the state of Telanagana could be nail in the coffin for speculators in the Hyderabad real estate market. It is interesting that speculators will now swing towards Vizag, Vijayawada and Warangal as they exit the bubbling Hyderbad market. Land prices in Hyderbad have quadupled over the past 4 years but it appears that the T-factor has pricked the balloon faster then expected. Investment is never without risk and this has been proven yet again by the surprise events which can bankrupt even the savviest investor.
Here is a Times of India article which reports 20000 crores been invested in Hyderbad real estate by Rayalseema/Coastal Andhra politicians. I wonder where do they get these numbers from. Is there a survey carried out by Times which queries each politician and then adds up the figures ? So from the looks of this article it appears that politicians only care about real estate in Hyderbad, Telangana or AP doesn't matter.

Hyderabad Blues
A question of a Telangana without Hyderabad, those from Andhra and Rayalaseema declared the current state capital was common property and should be declared an Union Territory. The demands are based on a complex mix of political, emotional and material logic. Many politicians from the other two regions have invested heavily in property in and around Hyderabad including the ritzy Jubilee Hills, Hi-tec City and Shamshabad, areas where the outer Ring Road and new international airport
have come up and jacked up realty. Of the 23 AP districts, 10 are in Telangana, nine in Andhra and four in Rayalaseema. For the Telangana supporters, Hyderabad is the heart of the region and can never be given UT status. "By right, Hyderabad deserves to be the capital of the new Telangana state. Historically, all the Telangana districts have actually been part of the erstwhile Nizam-ruled state of Hyderabad of which the current city was the epicentre. If Hyderabad is shared with people of the other region, then the heart of Telangana is will be taken away," said one Congress leader from the region. Another reason for the Telanganites' opposition to Hyderabad being made a UT is lack of contiguity with other regions. "The state capital is surrounded completely by the Telangana districts. Therefore, for the people of Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, Hyderabad can never function as an administrative capital," said the leader. Those clamouring for UT status for Hyderabad base it on the cosmopolitan nature of the city. "To preserve its cosmopolitan character and accelerate its growth as an hub of IT, biotech, pharma and other emerging technologies, it has to be made union territory....The demographic profile of the city has changed tremendously over the years and today the native inhabitants constitute only a modest percentage with those from the other two regions, different states of India and abroad forming the majority," said BC welfare minister M Mukesh Goud in a letter to Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Wednesday, in which he urged her to declare Hyderabad as UT. But there are more material reasons for seeking UT status. Goud, who wrote the letter, is from Hyderabad. Health minister Danam Nagender, who also is an advocate of Hyderabad as Union Territory, is also from Hyderabad. According to sources, several ministers from the Andhra and Rayalaseema regions have invested in property worth crores of rupees over the last decade or so in and around Hyderabad. "They stand to lose heavily in case Hyderabad is retained with Telangana as property values are bound to fall," said an observer. Interestingly, when the Telangana issue was raging three years ago after TRS president K Chandrasekhar Rao parted ways with the Congress and launched an agitation, there was not much of a demand for Hyderabad as Union Territory. "That was because the real estate business was booming in the state and efforts were on to build a new capital for the divided Andhra state in the Mangalagiri-Guntur-Vijayawada region. Therefore, leaders of these regions had no objection to Hyderabad remaining part of Telangana. But after the real estate bust, the Andhra and Rayalaseema leaders re-invested heavily in and around Hyderabad. Their total investments here would be more than Rs 20,000 crore," said one politician in the know. As a result, the fight for Hyderabad is set to be fiercely contested. But with the Andhra regions up in arms a day after the Congress gave the green signal for Telangana, the Rosaiah regime tottering and the possibility of the assembly passing the resolution on Telangana becoming difficult, the fight for Hyderabad may just recede into the background for the time being. But it is sure to be raked up when Telangana inches towards becoming a reality.
Hindu reports
IT professionals worried over Telangana developments

Hyderabad, Dec. 10
The Chidambaram statement on the formation of Telangana State on Wednesday night created ripples in the IT industry in Andhra Pradesh.
The subject turned into intense discussion in most IT companies, with the employees discussing the pros and cons of division of the State. The industry employs about 2.5 lakh people, mostly from outside of Telangana region.
“It (the Telangana factor) would have a very bad impact on the IT industry. We won't get new companies here and the existing companies might cut down their operations here,” Mr K. Kunal, a HR consultant for a leading IT company, told Business Line.
A Managing Director of another IT company echoes this view. “I am neither pro- nor anti-Telangana. But what I would like to have is serenity which is the hallmark of the city. Customers are postponing their visits on hearing the news of violence,” he pointed out.
"The issue is not whether Telangana happens or not. The real concern is the loss of productive time in the last few weeks. We need to restore normalcy," Mr J. A .Chowdhary, Chairman of The Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE), said.
Mr C. Bhaskar, working for a telcom services company, has a different view. “This is just a temporary phase. Companies invest in places where they find the right eco system. The city could establish an eco system with good IT infrastructure and skilled manpower,” he argued.
“Now that there is clarity (on the issue), there will be no trouble for work and logistics. The worst is over,” he observed.
Mr T. Navin, working for a multi-national firm, said that some people were not bothered at all. “We have bought houses here and the status of the city is not going to change. Why should we bother?”
The IT exports from State were put at Rs 12,000 crore in the first half ended September, 2009, reflecting a flat growth rate as a result of the economic slowdown. It expected to reach Rs 35,000 crore in 2009-10 as against Rs 32,500 crore in the last fiscal.
There, however, is a silver lining for the IT industry. A real-estate developer admitted that the costs of properties would come down drastically. “For those, who wanted to expand their facilities, it is a good time as prices of realty have already crashed in the IT investment triangle being planned by the Government,” he said.


Shriniwas K said...

No matter how many states are made Gultee is still a Gultee ...

Anonymous said...

On a different topic and very interesting developments.

Hey Shriniwas - ghati is also a ghati ;) can't be anything else..

Anonymous said...

Source Moneycontrol

DE Shaw has finally exited DLF Assets with USD 450-470 million reports CNBC-TV18 Nayantara Rai. DLF Assets promoter Rajiv Singh has bought the DE Shaw stake.

DE Shaw has been looking to exit DLF Assets for sometime and that is why Rajiv Singh, who also happens to be the Vice Chairman at DLF Limited, has sold 9.9% of his stake in the listed entity to raise funds and enable DE Shaw’s exit.

DLF Assets to file for REIT listing in Jan: Sources
Property developers delay projects; buyers in dilemma

RSS feed for news
Click here

That was in May and finally we understand from sources that DE Shaw has exited. It has made a principle investment of about USD 400 million in 2007 and this week it has exited with about USD 450-470 million.

When Rajiv Singh has sold his 9.9% stake in DLF, about Rs 38 crore have been raised, which had been put in an escrow account on this and in dollar terms it works to about USD 450-470 million

Now how 38 crores rupees = USD 470 million. Can anyone explain this shabby reporting

Anonymous said...

Hi friends..good time is not too are few links of related events in just last couple of days.. enjoy :)

DE Shaw sells 36% stake in DLF Asset for $500 mn

Alok Ind decided to Exit from RE to pay debt

Dubai crisis: Dawood dials (Mumbai) builder, asks him to pay up

- Anil

Venkateswaran K Iyer said...

So who can identify this bombay builder who is in Dawoods crosshairs?

Venkat ND

Anonymous said...

Housing bust continues more aggressively

American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent

DECEMBER 10, 2009

People's increasing willingness to abandon their own piece of America illustrates a paradoxical change wrought by the housing bust : Even as it tarnishes the near-sacred image of home ownership, it might be clearing the way for an economic recovery.

Thanks to a rare confluence of factors -- mortgages that far exceed home values and bargain-basement rents -- a growing number of families are concluding that the new American dream home is a rental.

Some are leaving behind their homes and mortgages right away, while others are simply halting payments until the bank kicks them out. That's freeing up cash to use in other ways.

The U.S home-ownership rate has charted its biggest decline in more than two decades, falling to 67.6% as of September from a peak of 69.2% in 2004. And more renters are on the way: Credit firm Experian and consulting firm Oliver Wyman forecast that "strategic defaults" by homeowners who can afford to pay are likely to exceed one million in 2009, more than four times 2007's level.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities expect 21 million U.S. households to end up owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth by the end of 2010.

Anonymous said...

The double dip which is going to hit us will engulf the entire world this time. People who were thinking of diversifying by catering to europe are going to be in for a massive shock when europe itself starts imploding. China will experience a massive bust that will rattle the whole world. I have been seeing the massive inventories and debt piling on, on the books of the real estate companies...the indian real estate collapse and the number of mortgages which will be underwater will be as spectacular as any firework display...I urge the intelligent folks here to just patiently wait and enjoy the bust....

Venkateswaran K Iyer said...

Our current situation was well described 120 years ago and came true in 1906, 1916, 1929 all of which were just repetitions of what happened 200 years ago when the first federal bank was formed in USA.

"The Work of Orestes A. Brownson (1893)

The Credit System

The fact is, the mercantile system, introduced by England, or the credit system, that is, the system of making debt pass for capital, is itself failing, in consequence of its own expansion. The principle of the system, as we understand it, is to do business on credit and to rely on the profits of the business done to pay the interest on the borrowed capital and to discharge in time the loan itself. This would, perhaps, be well enough if the capital borrowed were real capital, for the volume of business would then not exceed the ability of the country to sustain and no general depression of business could occur. But it is credit, not capital, that is borrowed. The banks do not lend money, they simply lend their credit, and consequently depend on their debtors for the means to sustain their own credit or to redeem their bills; and these depend on the amount and profits of the business they do on their borrowed credit. If they fail the bank fails, or suspends, as it is politely called. The greater the facility of borrowing credit, the greater the extension of business.

The multiplication of banks of discount facilitates the borrowing of credit, tempts an undue proportion of the young men of the country into business, and those already engaged to extend their business operations, till business is expanded far beyond the wants of the community or the ability of the industry and productions of the soil to support; and a collapse and business depression, as well as widespread financial ruin, inevitably follow. No wisdom, foresight, or prudence, no business tact or capacity, can save a house that has borrowed or given credit from failing, for it will be carried down by the collapse of credit or the demand for payment of the debt hitherto used as capital; and the means to pay it will not be forthcoming when business has been overdone.

Financial Remedies

The various remedies suggested, whether by the president or by prominent merchants, traders, and bankers, are puerile, and not even palliatives. There is no remedy for a gangrenous limb or safety for the patient but in amputation, and not always even in that. The essence of the present system is in using debt as capital. Under it no debts are ever really paid; there is only a transfer of the debt, and all debts are mortgages on the future. A debt discharged in bank-notes becomes a debt against the bank; in greenbacks, it becomes a debt against the government, but in neither case is there any liquidation of the indebtedness.

If the government credit fail – and a revolution or gross mismanagement may cause it to fail – somebody must lose; if the bank fail – and fail it must if it overdoes its business, if its debtors fail, if it lock up its means in unavailable or worthless assets, if there is a considerable shrinkage in their market value, or it its officers are speculators, stock-gamblers, swindlers, or defaulters – its creditors necessarily lose.

The bank depends on its debtors for its ability to pay its own debts, and the government would bankrupt the whole people were it to attempt to liquidate at once its entire indebtedness. It is more than it is now able to do to meet its ordinary expenses and pay the interest on the public debt.

CHS note: doesn't this precisely describe the current financial meltdown? "

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