Thursday, February 04, 2010

Stone shortage to push housing prices up in Pune

This is by far the most ridiculous conclusion one can reach when it comes to the co-relation of stone with housing prices. In the past cement , steel, shortage of land. labor costs, electricty and loan costs were listed as the reasons for prices to move higher. Now add stone to the mix. Dagad ani Dhonde are equally precious when it comes to housing. The Indian Express article is below
Crushed stone is set to become costlier in the city, which may give another reason for builders to jack up prices of projects yet to take off.
The Pune Stone Crushers and Mine Owner's Association has stopped supplying crushed stone, an unavoidable commodity for the construction industry as use of sand is restricted, saying they want to hike prices. "Our association has stopped supplying crushed stone to the construction industry with effect from today.
The supply will resume only when prices of crushed stone are increased," said Pradeep Kand of the association.
He justified the move saying the government had increased royalty on stones, their raw material extracted from mines, and the power tariff too was going up. The other variables, employee salary, cost of diesel, tyre and spare-parts of machines have been on the rise for the last few years, Kand said.
The builders are caught in a bind, as they cannot do without crushed stone since the government has imposed restrictions on use of sand for construction. The move also caught the city builders unawares as there was no prior communication from the association.
Satish Magar, president of the apex builders body in Pune, CREDAI, said if there is no supply of crushed stone for the next few days, then construction activities in the city will come to a halt.
"We will hold a meeting with the suppliers of crushed stone to resolve the issue," he said.
Magar admitted there has been an increase in royalty of stone, but argued that it would not have a big impact on price of crushed stone. "We are yet to be apprised of the exact demand by the association and the hike they seek," he said.
"We can discuss the issue with the association, but one thing is sure, that it will have a cascading effect on property rates. Home buyers will have to shell out more as builders will need to recover the extra cost," Magar said.
However, Kand said builders should not complain as the demand to hike rates of crushed stone was coming after a long gap. "Property rates in the city have more than doubled in the past few years and builders have been making money out of it but stone crushers continued to supply at the earlier rate," he said.
Kand said it was up to the builders to bear the extra cost and not pass it on to customers as they have been doing each time the cost of some raw material went up. The builders so far have been attributing the increase in property rates to increase in rates of steel and cement as also shortage of labour.


shailesh said...

This is mainly to due to corruption in the system. Government gives leases to mining companies. Most govt employees want huge cut backs. Seems like, the biz owners have finally stood up to it.

It is similar to Koda scandal.

Anonymous said...

I'm afraid that India may have the same fate as Greece, Spain and Ireland as India is massively under debt.

The main reason the stocks are going down is because of the debt of these countries. And Dubai is still not out of their problems. When India would reveal how much they have borrowed, there could be a catastrophe.

Anonymous said...

Indian stocks will be down 3% today.
Right now Australia, HK and Singapore are all down close to 3%.

Maybe around 500 points down today in Sensex.

Anonymous said...

Once the chinese real estate bubble collapses, there will be plenty of sand cement and stone in the market.

If by that time the indian real estate bubble collapses as well, bindaas bhai can have these items for breakfast.

Anonymous said...

Sundaas bhai will be shitting sand and stones soon. Which he can then supply to his builder friends at a cheap cost being the prostitutes they are will lap up sundaas bhai's offerings and churn up extravagant cost "luxury apartments"...sundaas bhai will then proudly say - look the prices have gone up!! I said so..all this till the day the builders start shitting stones at which point the demand and supply law will force construction cost to sink below ground level and mix with ground water...

Anonymous said...

Anon at 7:30PM:

You are funny about BBs breakfast menu.

I think there would be lot of people waiting in India soon to break BBs eating plate before breakfast and later looking to beat him.

Someone wise has said: You reap what you sow. BB and his likes will have their day soon.

Laaloo Prasad yadav said...

Dear Friends, errrr... "negative Narayans"

By just ridiculing Bindas bhai or SabbalSeshu, you can't get your dream home for cheap. Lets be practical. If DLF guy can get the 'padma' award, who is one of the most corrupt guy, just think to what extant these rich guys can influence our Indian govt. You can't compare India with other countries. India is being run by these rich guys (not by public or not by politicians).

trust me, noting like you guys are dreaming is going to happen. Prices will not go down and India's large work force will keep Indian economy going up and up.

I also wish for a fall... but reality is different. Bubble can burst in Us , europe, Australia.. but will never in India. If they can take land from poor formers on the name of SEZ, they can easyly take 50% of your salary on the name of housing. You guys better buy now or its going to be costly in future.

Laaloo Prasad yadav

Anonymous said...

Abe laloo!!

India is running on huge deficits. Money doesn't come out of thin air.

You have to wait for the reality to come. Something that didn't go up for 200 years this aggressively, why is it going up now in the last few years.

All of the masses in India is blindfolded because they all get benefited with it. Even I get benefited as I have 2 flats too.

But, the reality is that these prices will go down by 50%. People will put the Padma award in his arse when things unravel in months to come.

Anonymous said...

Sensex is down 11% from its Jan peak. Is this a correction or a double dip?

I'm glad I'm not invested either in RE or Stocks. Everything looks like a casino now. Fundamentals and financial theories don't work in this market. It all seems to be political intervention with manipulation of interest rates and extensive borrowing.

My take is that we are not yet done going down. The Sensex will very easily hit 12K in a month or so and then head towards 10K, where it will stay for the whole year.

As far as RE is concerned, smart people sold when the market was high. Fools waited too long due to their greed. The RE prices will start going down and there will be a long recession with RE going down every year by 20-30% till 2013.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sundas Bhai,

Cant you think beyond Sundas. Do you have to walk a mile to do sundas. Kindly add value to this forum or just stuff the shit in your mouth and keep you trap shut.


Anonymous said...

Bad news folks. All the fictitious growth in India is in the toilet now.

Even the Govt. has no tools now fix this. As they have already tried interest rates and stimulus and are loaded with Debt.

I think the RE crash is coming sooner than I thought. Maybe before the Games in Delhi or maybe as early as this summer.

shailesh said...

More controversy over Lodha's Aqua project

Customers who have booked property in Lodha’s much-touted project are still struggling to get possession of their flats

Have you ever heard of a home buyer being charged an interest by a developer on a balance amount that the home loan company is not ready to pay due to incomplete work? Here is one such example. According to a complaint file by one such buyer, Mumbai-based developer Lodha Group has been demanding interest on the amount, which is not paid by the home loan company.

This case is related to Lodha’s ‘Aqua’ project near Mumbai that is (still) being advertised in the media. Lodha launched the Aqua project in 2007 and work is still going on. The developer initially had promised possession by June 2009, which subsequently was deferred to September, October, November, December and so on.

However, the developer wants the buyer to pay interest at a rate of around 12%-18% on the amount not paid by the home loan company as per its demand. It has already collected the interest charges from some of the buyers. One such buyer was forced to pay an interest of Rs58,000 and after the buyer’s home loan provider refused to disburse the next instalment, the developer is asking for another Rs80,000 as interest on the delayed payment. Executives of Lodha have also refused to accept the next loan instalment from the buyer unless they get the interest.

Shrini said...

I have been monitoring Pune Prices. Overheated areas like KG park, Kalyani Nagar and Kothrud have now come down to sane levels, but in upcoming areas rates have frozen since end of 2008.

In fact suburban areas like Northwest Pune, South/Southwest Pune and North East Pune, PCMC area the rates have come down to good realistic levels. you will easily get 2bhk for 28-32 lakh all amenities included and 3 bhk for 40-42lakh.In mid 2005 when these rates were 18-25 lakh. At 10% increase per year these values are consistent with the interest rates/returns for Pune's growth.

The hot areas that are in trouble for those who bough at peak. People who got good deals in suburbs are all but happy.

Honestly. in 2005 putting 10 lakh down payment was not possible, now it is very easy especially if both husband and wife work.

Moreover the problem with Pune is that if you wont buy early people from Mumbai start buying as their purchasing power is more than Puneites. (that was the only reason for me to buy). If you wait for cheap deals, people from rural Maharashtra rich from agricultural untaxed income will snatch good deals in bulk. So the Middle class buyer has to be prudent to take decision.

My friends in Vashi-Belapur-Panvel are saying that rates will stagnate for about 2-3 years. Builders have made up enough cushion learning from the last slowdown in 1999-2003 that they made sure the

Bottom note

Once again Please stop slander of people. This blog should not become a rediff news forum full of abuse. And people who are scared and anonymously abuse are more cowardly than any of the meanest broker or realtor here.

Anonymous said...

Published: February 5 2010 12:17 | Last updated: February 5 2010 22:45

The dollar surged to its highest level in seven months on a trade-weighted basis this week as worries over fiscal problems in Europe boosted haven demand for the US currency.

Concerns over the size of Greece’s budget deficit have dogged the euro during the past month, but those fears spilled over into a broad-based flight from risk that saw global equity markets tumble and the dollar push higher across the board.

Equity markets slumped as investor concerns not only heightened about Greece but switched to focus on other countries on the periphery of the eurozone, such as Portugal and Spain, which also sport large fiscal deficits and high labour costs.

The dollar index, which tracks its progress against a basket of currencies, rose 1 per cent over the week to a high of 80.256, its strongest level since July 13.

Some analysts said the price action on financial markets was reminiscent of that at the height of the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Venkateswaran K Iyer said...

Shrini, well said about the pervasive abuse over here.

Vic, try to remove some of the noxious postings if possible.

Anonymous said...

Demand for homes in cities like mumbai is more related to investment than the actual need. Most investors have plenty of money to throw around and therefore don't expect the builders to reduce prices when they can easily get buyers. All black money transactions are through proper banking channels reducing the risk of getting caught by income tax dept. You have to just ask your tax consultant or builders agent to find out how this can be done with 0 risk.

It is unlikely that we will see any price reduction in the future. Don't waste any more time and buy now

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

You mean to say that Builders build flats and purposely raise the rates? And then investors with black money purposely buy these flats at high prices and ask for higher prices from potential buyers? And they will continue to do this forever, therefore prices will go up forever? Which would mean that very soon flats might cost 100's of crores?? So better buy a flat today at 1-2 crores??

Are you seriously saying all of the above? Seriously??!!

washington DC new homes said...

The main reason the stocks are going down is because of the debt of these countries. And Dubai is still not out of their problems. When India would reveal how much they have borrowed, there could be a catastrophe.

shailesh said...

Real reason why prices in Mumbai are skyhigh.

‘Trained town planner needed for Mumbai’

Speaking at a seminar on Mumbai architecture at the K. R. Cama Oriental Institute on Sunday, Patel said the vast tracts of land taken up by the saltpans and mangroves are the only viable solution to Mumbai’s space crunch.

In the recent past, environmentalists have expressed concern over proposals to build housing complexes on the saltpan lands. On Thursday, the Mumbai Heritage Conservation Committee proposed to put saltpans and mangroves on its heritage list.

“Whatever the environmentalists say, I find it hard to believe the government cares about salt or mangroves. It has a conscious policy of keeping land in short supply,” said Patel.

The final speaker at the two-day seminar, he added that the problem of slums, too, arose largely because the government provides migrants with jobs, but not corresponding housing facilities.

“If you increase land supply, its price will fall, and that doesn’t serve the interests of the government or the builders,” said Rajiv Mishra, principal of JJ College of Architecture.

Ruing the fact that many of Mumbai’s architects are largely builders in league with a corrupt government, Mishra stressed the need for the civic body to create the role of a trained town planner.

“There are nine schools of planning in India, and not one of them is in Mumbai. Planning here is only about favouring the elites, not taking into account the aspirations of the common people,” he added.

Venkateswaran K Iyer said...

@Anon 5.44

Despite all your sarcasm, it is unfortunate that for the last 7 years the builder lobby has been "seriously - very very seriously" raised prices without limit just on the "next sucker will buy higher" principle.

Sad but true.

Only way to break the vicious cycle is not to buy.

Venkat ND

Anonymous said...


I think you missed the point and focused on the sarcasm. Pls. read my post again carefully. At the end of it all I am saying that it does not make sense to buy at overinflated prices.

Some pimp of the builder whore communities are saying here that there is "unlimited black money" owned by moronic investors who cannot get any return for it and so will keep investing ad nauseum. These bhadwa's also contend that there is an UNLIMITED supply of GREATER FOOLS!!!

I think they are wrong on both counts and am willing to sit and wait and see..this is my advice to all. After all a buyer can always outlast a seller by sitting on the fence till the prices fall. If someone says prices will NEVER fall, they are smoking the wrong thing...

Anonymous said...

Big Six banks urge Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules

Some snips from the article:
The heads of the country’s six largest banks have privately told policy makers that they fear the wide-ranging economic fallout of a U.S. style binge-and-collapse in housing. To head off any chance of that happening, they are willing to accept tighter rules on mortgages that would slow the real estate market, even though it would mean forgoing some short-term profits from giving out ever bigger mortgages as home prices jump.

Then the gem:
That has led to pushback from some in the mortgage industry who argue that stiffer amortization and down payment rules for all buyers could undermine the housing sector and hurt Canadians by causing the values of their homes to drop. The average price of a house in Canada, is $337,410

Canada is going to fall hard, although I still think we are better off then AZ, NV and CA.

Anonymous said...

One of my biggest “hay bhagwaan” moments of the housing mania is when I went to Toronto in 2006 after a 10 year absence. The number of high-end condo towers boggled my mind.

India is no different. They have made a perfect recipe to screw themselves for the next 10 years.

Anonymous said...

The news out of Greece seems awful quiet this weekend. It is amazing how tied together the entire world, and worlds within the world, have become.

A debt problem in Greece could threaten the European Union. That could cause the Euro to continue its plunge. That would make U.S. exports (if we still do that) more expensive for Europe. The carry trade would crash. Investors could be forced to scramble for dollars to get out of their credit trades (Combo). They might start jumping out of investments just to free up cash. This could send the stock market reeling. This would crush the repatriated profits of multi-national corporations.

Greece is the next test but certainly not the last test. Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy await their 15 minutes of fame. California, and the state budgets, are under the bed making strange noises. As I sit here on an early Sunday I can think of so many scary things. I believe I better stock up on liquid assets.

Anonymous said...

Just about everybody I know as a deep sense of unease about the economy. Yet probably not one person in twenty is even aware of the problems in the Eurozone (not to mention Dubai World, Latvia, and any number of other debt pyramids waiting to implode). Fewer still have any inkling of the true ramifications of the global and LOCAL impact when the worldwide economic house of cards starts to collapse. There will be mass panic and pandemonium on the markets, and possibly on the streets as well - and all the usual “experts” and Obama economic advisors will avow that “nobody saw this coming.” Housing Bubble redux.

Anonymous said...

I think there are some advantages to being aware of what may be coming, even if your options are limited as to what to do about it.

I’m more concerned about how the anger will be channeled from those that were clueless. They could do more harm from their ill-thought-out reactions than the direct impacts of a collapse.

Anonymous said...

I’m not sure. We can go back to the 1930s for some possible examples.

I could see the tea partiers acting like the brownshirts in Germany and sweeping into power people that would lock down the country. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with the anger that the tea partiers are feeling. There are lots of good reasons to be angry about the direction of the country, going back a few decades. But misdirected anger could result in a very bad outcome.

Anonymous said...

The biggest problem this nation faces is the mass stupidity and willful ignorance among the populace. If the economy really tanks, they’ll look for scapegoats rather than reflect on their own roles in the train wreck. It’ll be easier to blame “them” than to do a sober cause-and-effect analysis of what went wrong and why. Rather than sacrifice and hard work to get us back on track, they’ll want simple solutions. I just hope common sense, restraint, and decency will ultimately prevail.

Anonymous said...

Greece and Spain are getting all the attention, but Britain isn’t too far behind.

Anonymous said...

The news out of Greece seems awful quiet this weekend

The calm before the storm? Here’s what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard had to say on February 5th:

Fears of ‘Lehman-style’ tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

The Greek debt crisis has spread to Spain and Portugal in a dangerous escalation as global markets test whether Europe is willing to shore up monetary union with muscle rather than mere words.

Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the EU may to need to invoke emergency treaty powers under Article 122 to halt the contagion, issuing an EU guarantee for Greek debt. “If not contained, this could result in a `Lehman-style’ tsunami spreading across much of the EU.”

Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring bankruptcy risk on Portuguese debt surged 28 basis points on Thursday to a record 222 on reports that Jose Socrates was about to resign as prime minister after failing to secure enough votes in parliament to carry out austerity measures.

In Spain, default insurance surged 16 basis points after Nobel economist Paul Krugman said that “the biggest trouble spot isn’t Greece, it’s Spain”. He blamed EMU’s one-size-fits-all monetary system, which has left the country with no defence against an adverse shock. The Madrid’s IBEX index fell 6pc.

Finance minister Elena Salgado said Professor Krugman did not “understand” the eurozone, but reserved her full wrath for the EU economics commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, who helped trigger the panic flight from Iberian debt by blurting out that Spain and Portugal were in much the same mess as Greece.

Mrs Salgado called the comparison simplistic and imprudent. “In Spain we have time for measures to overcome the crisis,” she said. It is precisely this assumption that is now in doubt. The budget deficit exploded to 11.4pc last year, yet the economy is still contracting.
Jacques Cailloux, Europe economist at RBS, said markets want the EU to spell out exactly how it is going to shore up Club Med states. “They are working on a different time-horizon from the EU. They don’t think words are enough: they want action now. They are basically testing the solidarity of monetary union. That is why contagion risk is growing,” he said.

“In my view they underestimate the political cohesion of the EMU Project. What the Commission did this week in calling for surveillance of Greece has never been done before,” he said.

Mr Callow of Barclays said EU leaders will come to the rescue in the end, but Germany has yet to blink in this game of “brinkmanship”. The core issue is that EMU’s credit bubble has left southern Europe with huge foreign liabilities: Spain at 91pc of GDP (€950bn); Portugal 108pc (€177bn). This compares with 87pc for Greece (€208bn). By this gauge, Iberian imbalances are worse than those of Greece, and the sums are far greater. The danger is that foreign creditors will cut off funding, setting off an internal EMU version of the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, gave no hint yesterday that Frankfurt will bend to help these countries, either through loans or a more subtle form of bail-out through looser monetary policy or lax rules on collateral. The ultra-hawkish ECB has instead let the M3 money supply contract over recent months.
Mr Trichet said euro members drew down their benefits in advance — “ex ante” — when they joined EMU and enjoyed “very easy financing” for their current account deficits. They cannot expect “ex post” help if they get into trouble later. These are the rules of the club.

Anonymous said...

Most EU have to roll a lot of debt and the coffers are empty. Unemployment in Spain is around 25 pct. What segment of the population is it going to tax to pay the debt? Add to that, they can’t print cash like we do.

I wonder if India has planned properly or are just listening to the builders and borrowing extensively. Is the Harvard degree helping the PM and our country????

Anonymous said...

Speaking of sovereign debt issues, how is Iceland looking nowadays?

The Financial Times
Dutch central bank chief says Iceland’s regulators ‘lied’
By Michael Steen in Amsterdam and Andrew Ward in,Stockholm

Published: February 5 2010 02:00 | Last updated: February 5 2010 02:00

Icelandic banking regulators “lied” to Dutch officials about the health of the country’s banks only days before the lenders collapsed in 2008, the head of the Dutch central bank said yesterday.

Seeking to rebut claims that Dutch regulators had been inattentive as the doomed Icesave online bank slipped towards bankruptcy, Nout Wellink, central bank president, said Icelandic regulators had given him what amounted to false assurances.

The remarks threaten to deepen tensions between the countries as Iceland prepares to hold a referendum over controversial legislation to repay €3.9bn ($5.4bn, £3.4bn) in debts to the UK and the Netherlands to cover money lost by British and Dutch depositors.

Icesave, the online arm of the Reykjavik-based Landsbanki, operated in the Netherlands and UK under European rules that meant its home-country regulator was responsible for oversight.

Anonymous said...

“Mr. Rosenberg reckons that the flight to the dollar will continue. Even though the United States has plenty of its own economic challenges — enormous public debt weighing on a struggling economy, for example — our lot is far better than others’, he maintains. ‘In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king,’ he said. ‘The U.S. dollar is that one-eyed man.’”

Anonymous said...

Let me try. I believe the first word rhymes with “crash”. Is it dash? No. How about hash? Hmmm. Smash? Oh, this is tough. Wait. I’ve got it. Cash!


Cash is King!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not the black money thieves are hoarding in India, but the money kept in banks.

Anonymous said...

Latvia Ghost Town Auctioned Off for $3.1 Million.

An abandoned former Soviet garrison town of soulless apartment buildings once “home” to 5,000 miserable alcoholic souls at a vast radar complex just went on the auction block. You know, they’re not building Latvian ghost towns anymore….

Anonymous said...

ITEM: HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — A federal U.S. judge ordered jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney to halt its plans to move 1,000 jobs out of Connecticut and to Japan , Singapore and the state of Georgia.

U.S. District Judge Janet C. Hall in Bridgeport issued a permanent injunction, stopping the company’s plans to shift the jobs. Who “owns” the jobs?

< In effect the labor union told Pratt & Whitney that despite the fact the company can’t economically keep the Connecticut operation staffed at former levels, it can’t shift 1,000 jobs elsewhere in order to bring costs under control.

The union is saying the unionized worker “owns” the job, not Pratt & Whitney. This flies in the face of the adage “He who owns the tools owns the job.” Pratt has one ace up its sleeve. It can close. And it will if the union forces it to lose money.

Anonymous said...


Secret summit of top bankers.
* Herald Sun * February 06, 2010

The high-powered gathering coincides with a fresh meltdown on world

THE world’s top central bankers began arriving in Australia yesterday as renewed fears about the strength of the global economic recovery gripped world share markets.

Representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank landed in Sydney to meet tomorrow at a secret location, the Herald Sun reports.

Organised by the Bank for International Settlements last year, the two-day talks are shrouded in secrecy with high-level security believed to have been invoked by law enforcement agencies.

Speculation that the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Dr Ben Bernanke, would make an appearance could not be confirmed last night.

The event will be dominated by Asian delegations and is expected to include governors of the Peoples Bank of China, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India.

The arrival of the high-powered gathering coincided with a fresh meltdown on world sharemarkets, sparked by renewed concerns about global growth and sovereign debt.

Fears countries including Greece, Portugal, Spain and Dubai could default on debt repayments combined with disappointing US jobs data to spook investors.

Anonymous said...

This from the time when India used to suffer from 25 - 30% Inflation

At that time too congress blamed the black marketeers and hoarders!! No finger pointing to govt. its those bad capitalists!!

We are back to those times again...roti, kapda aur makaan...Long Live Congress

Anonymous said...

I always thought India is growing but after reading the above posts, it seems like India is also playing the casino game unlike many other countries and many of us in India are at risk of housing bubble.

What a shame. I always thought India is shining but this secret meeting in Sydney as Anon pointed above reveals it all. It is all money printing and stimulus that is going on.

Anonymous said...

I saw the recent DLF IPO and how miserably it bombed! Looks like the Indian retail investor has wisened up!!

Some people here keep saying there is no shortage of greater fools..but look what is happening. People are becoming smarter to the games of these builders -

Venkateswaran K Iyer said...

Somebody asked what India learned from the banking crisis of USA.

Unfortunately, it seems to have learnt all the bad things.

They learned all about "Teaser rates". Now you have banks advertising 8/8.25 or 8.5% rates for first 2 years.

They fail to explain that this amount is later "adjusted with later payments" and that after 2 years you pay floating rates which might be anything - 15% or 25% depending on rates prevailing at that time.

Isnt that what caused all the problems in USA?

Soon, they may come out with option ARMs, interest only ARM, CDO etc - now that Indian bankers have learned about them from the Americans thanks to all this publicity.

RBI should ban teaser rates. Even SBI is indulgin in this nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Wall Street investors are giving up on the story on growth in emerging markets.

Investors want to sell emerging markets stocks as they feel all emerging markets are just borrowed money ready to explode anytime.

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rajni sharma said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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