Tuesday, March 09, 2010

India's Real Estate Boom Is on Shaky Ground .

The Indian version of Forbes magazine lists the 100 richest Indians. Apart from the usual suspects, what intrigued us was that most of the new entrants in it were from the real estate industry. India is a services-based economy and a lot the people were from technology or other export services and products. But real estate?

India's Real Estate Boom Is on Shaky Ground

It is a bricks and mortar industry that caters to the local market. Yet it is so vast that it is creating untold riches. As people move to cities to build their careers, builders are fueling their aspirations for a dream home. The builders themselves have built their companies with successful initial public offerings and by attracting foreign investment. It's a good time to be in Indian real estate, with buoyant prices and never-ending demand.


Anonymous said...

Buy, Buy Buy...

I'm happy for all the fools who are buying. Let them buy and create this bubble even bigger. The higher it goes up, the louder will be the noise when it bursts. It will not deflate now. It will burst with making many people bankrupt.

Alex K. said...

The key is leverage. Only in real estate can one borrow virtually 100% of the capital needed. In technology this is just not possible.

The combination of an inherently simple business (just build it) and very high leverage leads to quick profits on the upside, but also outsized losses during the downturn - just take a look at US homebuilders.

Anonymous said...

Unless people make mistake of succumbing to the pressure and lures, real-estate will stabilize in long run. There is already a oversupply of buildings and houses as we can see in Bangalore atleast. I think the sellers are trying to be just smart by doing "Denial of service" and living by taking huge loans. Take for example DLF's project - that has hit so many road blocks in BLR think a major reason for those road blocks is lack of demand. All other media news is just story around that. And now given that RBI has rejected restructuring of loans, the builders have to do something to repay the loans and not just sit idling.

People should really think long term when buying properties. It is like one wave of property buying is over and nobody knows what are the consequences of buying flats and keeping them for say 50 years without being able to sell. I'm sure if we buy the second hand flats now, we won't be able to sell them again unless we can find some bakra.

Dexter said...

I am waiting for ( In real term not nominal) house prices to correct at-least 50%.

If they don't correct any time soon, then I suspect our builder friends will build as long as they can swing a profit to the point of overbuilding in 3BHK category. I am not thinking that about about big builders who were loading up on land banks and even now loading up (perhaps to corner the market and then release in controlled manner - but that will be really hard to achieve); but about smaller or newer builders who do not have huge legacy liability and can execute with 40% margin today.

Anonymous said...

I would buy a 1 crore flat in Delhi when the average salary in Delhi is 25-30 lacs p.a.

What is the average salary in Delhi now? I'm sure not more than 1-2 lacs p.a.

Housing has to come down by 50%.
1 crore flat should be 50 lacs, which is still double in value from its 2004-5 value of 25 lacs.

Anonymous said...

I'm trying hard to find a job outside India, probably USA and would like to settle down there.

With my current salary of 10 lacs, I cannot afford a decent house or even a decent flat for myself. My father wants me to take the flat he bought for 2 lac rupees in 1985 which is worth in crores now.

I told him to enjoy his retirement as he is not getting any money from retirement by selling the house and using it. Somehow he wants to leave his legacy, the flat for me.

I told him that I'll never be able to buy a anything in India now and don't want his flat. Moreover, I'm tired of all the corruption and uncertainity around.

Hopefully, I'll try for a Green Card in US and not that US is much different but life would be much more sane. This RE nonsense is good for fools and I don't want to be a party to it.

"Shelter" is a basic need and should not come at a price that people can't afford in their lifetime.

Anonymous said...

Is any satisfied house buyer is reading and commenting on this blog or all dissatisfied ppl leaving in rented accomdations waiting for price to fall???

Anyway from 70%fall to now 50% I told at 70% fall in bandra 2 bhk will cost 50-60 l and people laughed.....

Stay at rented place at the mercy of landlord,wnd change home after 11 months....

Anonymous said...

Buy if you need to but this wall of money aint gonna go away too soon. Dont speculate and definately not a time for investment.

Anonymous said...

Dear All,

I have been keenly following the RE business especially in Mumbai for the past one year. I have found this entire industry being taken over by the rich and the mighty leaving hss middle class buyers like us in the lurch.

First of all in the forthcoming budget the builders lobby has asked for incentives to continue for them to continue providing so called 'affordable' homes. Secondly, as a self appointed spokesperson they are lobbying with the FM to raise tax exemption limits for interest and capital repayment deductions. Hello!! why dont they just keep the rates steady for a while if they are so very interested in buyer welfare. I have seen projects in thane that charge as high as 6 lakhs for a car park. Many cars are not even worth half of that! And what happens to people who don't own a car? The builders can really get away with anything...they promise you eco friendly homes on a site which was created by erasing over a 100 trees..What a paradox!!

Act 2 is the banks and the RBI plays the lead hero. The RBI is suddenly worried about teaser loans and potential bad debts hence it increases the CRR...so what do the banks do? They obviously cannot take pangaa with the regulator so they happily end their teaser loans and suddenly the buyer is rewarded with a rise in interest rates.

The entire circus does not stop there...the press joins the party with some quotable quotes of 'renowned builders' who find the time to give press bytes rather than focus on issues with project completion. Am not going to take any names here but pick up any news paper or magazine the story is the same grim truth. The so called journalists interview only the 2-3 builders and property consultants who always give u a forecast of a robust and healthy scenario and in the same breath announce week on week that there cannot be a better time to buy....

So the builder blames the banks...the banks blame the builders and press keeps screaming from rooftops that it's the best time to buy.

The end user if anyone cares is left to deal with the intricate jugglery of home expenses rising food prices, poor infrastructure and heavy pollution and a host of other things. Pls do not think that this is a sympathy note on behalf of the buyers...this only goes to show that if you do not stand up for yourself some one else will. Why is there hardly any voice from any association like the RE buyers association and what are its powers. Frankly I don't even know if anything like that exists and am sure there are many like me who don't....why??
because they are NOT GIVEN A CHANCE TO BE HEARD!!


Anonymous said...

@Ano @ 4.15
I agree with you.
I still don't know why people buy these flats when you can rent them for 1/5th of EMI. And don't forget the interest paid if they bought on loan.
That said, there are still people buying. I have a couple of my friends buying/contemplating buying flats from an investment point of view. (last month) This is even worse.

Dexter said...

I agree about rent vs interest payment. I made a deal with my landlord for 5 year rent.

I will pay him 10L total rent over 5 years where he covers for repairs/paints/property taxes etc.

If I were to buy this house on 75L loan then I will end up paying 38L in interest payment and another 5L in repairs, paints, extra furniture, nick nacks.

At the end of 5th year I would have more buying power and direction where economy is going will be more clear.

Anonymous said...

You are smart. But the majority is full of fools.

If someone pays off the house for 75 l, can keep the money in bnk and get almost 38 lacs in interest.

Either way, buying doesn't make financial sense.

People buy for appreciation but prices cannot appreciate forever. And then too much money too be risked. I think let's leave buying for people who steal money and can afford to pay black. Let the stolen money be lost the way it was acquired.

shailesh said...

Anon 4:03AM

The main issue in Real Estate business in India is Transparency. All this so called transactions or people purchases are not just talk at times. In most developed economies, when someone buys a property, it is recorded and available for everyone to see. On the contrary in India, most of these deals are not registered at all, till someone actually buys it for end use.

There is simple solution to all this. 2 easy steps should resolve many issues,

Make Registration fee / Stamp duty mandatory at the time of purchase. For building under construction, it should be percentage of stamp duty at purchase and remaining at delivery.

Second is publish all these transactions on website. Let it be known that what builder is talking is real or just vapors.

Anonymous said...

Indians committing fraud in US and buying RE in India:

Family charged in $16 million real estate fraud:
March 9th, 2010, by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter OC Register

Lohia, Soni, and Suniti Shah were arrested. An arrest warrant has been issued for Dinesh Shah, who is believed to be in India.

Four members of an Orange County family — including a mother and two daughters — have been charged in a conspiracy to commit more than $16 million in real estate fraud by forging documents and buying homes using “straw buyers,” the Orange County District Attorney’s office says.

The defendants:

* Sushama Devi Lohia, 71, Newport Beach. Felony charges include 13 counts of conspiracy to commit a crime, 19 counts of forgery, 6 counts of identity theft and 4 counts of recording false and forged instrument and other charges. She is the mother of defendants Supriti Soni and Suniti Shah.
* Supriti Soni, 49, Corona del Mar. Felony charges include eight counts of conspiracy to commit a crime, 10 counts of forgery and other charges. In addition, prosecutors are seeking a stiffer sentence for her, if she’s convicted, because she was imprisoned in 2003 for perjury.
* Suniti Shah, 48, Newport Beach. Felony charges include five counts of conspiracy to commit a crime, nine counts of forgery, six felony counts of identity theft, four counts of recording a false and forged instrument and other charges.
* Dinesh Valjeebhai Shah, 60, Newport Beach. Felony charges include two counts of conspiracy to commit a crime, four counts of forgery, four counts of identity theft, four counts of recording a false and forged instrument and other charges. He is Suniti Shah’s husband.

Anonymous said...

Australia home loans unexpectedly fall to decade low
2010-03-10 (Forex Pros)

The number of home loans approved in Australia unexpectedly tumbled to a decade low in January, official data showed on Wednesday…Economists had in fact expected a 2% rise in January.

The decline followed a series of interest rate hikes by Australia’s central bank and the phasing out of a first-home buyers’ grant boost, both of which sapped demand.

Anonymous said...

Economy ‘Far too Close’ to Double Dip: Roubini
Wednesday, 10 Mar 2010 ~ CNBC.com

Poor economic data in the US coupled with Europe’s debt crisis are contributing to an increase of the risk of the US economy going through a double-dip recession, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2007 financial crisis, wrote in a research paper.

At best, the US economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery this year, Roubini said. That has been his prediction in recent months.

The US faces challenges in the second half, especially as fiscal stimulus measures fade, and “appears far too close to the tipping point of a double-dip recession,” he said.

Anonymous said...

* The Wall Street Journal
* MARCH 10, 2010, 9:34 A.M. ET

Commercial Real Estate Owners Beginning To Walk Away From Properties

By Prabha Natarajan

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Commercial real estate owners are walking away from properties that have become untenable as investments, just as homeowners have walked away from houses they can no longer afford to pay off or sell.

The latest commercial property owner to do this is Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), the $13 billion real estate investment trust, which warned last week that it would walk away from two loans totaling $235 million.

The trend is likely to escalate in coming months as more loans mature and refinancing remains difficult and costly. As with residential properties, there is less incentive for owners to hold on to properties when the buildings are worth less than what is owed on their mortgages.

Anonymous said...

In India people are getting 1.6crore starting package out og IIM-C. All these numbers are fake and how come all these foreign companies are offering so much money when there is huge unemployment in their own countries. These countries can easily hire well educated workers for $100K and why would they pay $300K.

Unemployment rises in 30 states in January

WASHINGTON (AP) - Unemployment rose in 30 states in January, the Labor Department said Wednesday, evidence that jobs remain scarce in most regions of the country.

The data is somewhat better than December, when 43 states reported higher unemployment rates, but worse than November, when rates fell in most states.

Still, five states reported record-high joblessness in January: California, at 12.5 percent; South Carolina, 12.6 percent; Florida, 11.9 percent; North Carolina, 11.1 percent; and Georgia, 10.4 percent.

Michigan’s unemployment rate is still the nation’s highest, at 14.3 percent, followed by Nevada, with 13 percent and Rhode Island at 12.7 percent. South Carolina and California round out the top five.

There were some signs of job creation. Thirty-one states added jobs in January, up from only 11 in the previous month. But the job gains weren’t enough, in many cases, to lower the unemployment rate.

SabbalSeshu said...

As a professional in real estate business with more than 20 years experience, I can confidently say the following.

1. The current prices are there to stay. Don't expect a crash due to imaginary bubble. Prices may not increase substantially for the coming 5 years, but the trend shows an incrase that may vary over the years depending on other economic factors.

1. It is a great mistake to to take a mortgage to buy a home unless you have other assets to fall back in case of higher interests etc. Do not even venture into the real estate market unless you have liquid assets to the amount of 50% of the total value of the house.

2.The demand for homes is 1000% more than the current supply. Black money is the biggest factor that has fueled the price rise.

3.The government is aware of this but not capable to do anything as their survival/lifestyle depends depends on people who control real estate

My advice is 'Stop dreaming and start buying if you can afford it.

Anonymous said...

Susuu's advice is 'Stop dreaming and start buying if you can afford it.

My advice to Susuu is to stop dreaming and stop posting. No one can afford to buy anymore except those slumdweller's....and I have a sneaky suspicion that slum dwellers do not come to the internet to this blog to read susuu's suggestions!

Vik said...

Exactly my point. None of us have black money and the maximum loan most of us can avail of is around 40L. If builders have overpaid for their lands, let them suffer. The only time I can afford to buy is to collect cash for the next 10 years and then take a loan. the builders have to wait for that to happen. This is when I say that Pune, Chennai and Bangalore are suddenly affordable. There is no way in hell I can afford a 75L loan with a 10% interest rate. Besides I have no inheritance nor any interest in earning any black money thru corruption or tax-evasion.

Anonymous said...

I agree that it is foolish to go for a mortgage even if you can get it. It is like taking a loan from a gangster pathan. The banks have become loan sharks. Their interest is only 'Suud' (EMI) and they know that their asal (principle) is safe, at least on paper. These banks employ third degree methods to protect their investments. No one cares what happens to the borrower, not even the consumer protection agency, police or the courts.

As Vik said, it is prudent to wait until you are self assured that you wont go down the drain, than taking a loan and cry foul of the system. Sabal may sound like a conman, but I find his prediction is realistic in the present circumstances.

Anonymous said...

"Exactly my point. None of us have black money and the maximum loan most of us can avail of is around 40L."

See, this is the reason we cannot afford to buy anything. Life is just not fair in India..and discussing it on this forum or for that matter anywhere else would not change a bit of it..

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 4:11 PM above,

The Anon 4:11 PM above is an idiot when he says "Most of us can avail a loan of 40L."
That 40 L loan translates to Rs 40,000 EMI for 20-25 years, you idiot.

The Anon 4:11 PM above is talking only about very few people having well-paid jobs.

Think about the common man in India. Will he be able to get and repay a loan of 40 Lakh ?

Anonymous said...

Banks will lend based on income. So someone with a 9L salary can get a loan of 5x times his income, roughly 40L. Lets be realistic and acknowledge that salaries have risen. Housing has never been been built for the common man. Zamindars abounded in the British era and also after independence until Indira Gandhi put an end to it with the 'son of the soil' program.

Anonymous said...

Housing has not kept pace with the population explosion. Scarcity drives the prices. Those who have money gobble up the best and the rest are left to ponder how this been happening. We are basically emotion driven people. Street dwellers flex their muscle whenever something good is published about india, like the wealth of indian billionaires, launching of indian satellites, Indians buying multinational companies and mansions in UK/USA etc. This euphoria leads them to forget their basic needs. Those who are religious become devotees like saibaba, nithyananda etc and willingly send their wives and sisters to seek the blessings of these gurus so that they can become prosperous.

Welcome to India of 21st century

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 5:06 am

There is no doubt that the salaries are risen, so is the cost of living. In late 90's the cost of a two b/r apartment in mumbai suburbs like kandivili was around 5-10 lakhs. Today it is 10 times more. Every thing has gone up, including essential commodities . To top this, cars, cellphones are introduced and these things have become essential part of life.
To summarise, struggle to lead a decent life has increased over the years.

Anonymous said...

There is a fundamental change in the residence/apartment/flat or plot purchases in India in last 12-15 years or so. If you look into past, the previous generation used to buy house at the end of their career with PF and all other life savings. And speculators were not rampant as of today....The market today is totally different..Young couples easily make 10L to 12L together thanks to IT..all our banks are following global standards..their criteria is if you are earning 10L per year (gross, not net), you can afford 4 times of that as loan, which they would expect you to pay over your life....If 3 years back 22L was the average price..now it is 35L upwards in decent localities in cities like Pune..that is the truth...whether you like it or not..

Anonymous said...

Anon above:
A lot of people who make 10-12L live in cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore etc. The prices there are in crores. There may be some people making decent money in smaller cities, but majority live in big cities.

DO you think flats will cost 40-50L in big cities based on your justification.

To me you sound like an idiot who is heavily invested in RE and your wishful thinking is that RE doesn't fall.

The prices all over India will drop and average drops would be at least 50%. Some places will se more drops where there was more insanity.

If you are so confident, why don't you buy some more flats in Pune.

Anonymous said...

Guys, just wait till this monsoon.real estate is gonna wash out. The present bull run is temperory as the new service tax like ruls are imposed after couple of months, so builders as usual speculate and take this as a good reason to buy/book now and save the service tax, and so the rates gone up as well. Just see what happens after 3-4 months. Stay Rented and save your money.

shailesh said...

I guess DLF is still looking for bewakoof's to buy homes at 20K per sq ft.

DLF changes tack in Mumbai realty market

shailesh said...

Mr. SS, so the prices will double, right !!!

Goregaon-Borivli to house 30,000 new homes by 2012

“Many developers were sitting on land banks for the past two years. Holding on to land also involves its own costs and post-downturn, it’s prudent to capitalise on it. So you’ve seen a slew of launches.

Even as of today in the said belt, there is an unsold ready stock of one crore square feet,” says Pankaj Kapoor of Liases Foras, a realty research firm, indicating that there will be a glut in the market in the next two years, bringing prices down by 25-30 per cent.

Another real estate expert Ajay Chaturvedi concurs, “Builders are not really seeing the kind of demand that is being projected. Prices are bound to drop in the range of 15-25 per cent,” he says.

In fact a survey done by Liases Foras suggests that there will be nine crore sq ft of homes by 2011-2012.

This translates roughly to 90,000 homes, around 30 per cent of which will be in the extended suburbs from Dahisar to Virar, Thane and Navi Mumbai.

Local brokers, however feel prices will fall. “Twenty-25 per cent toh market tootega,” says a Malad-based broker, continuing, “Many local developers are trying to sell flats at the rate of Rs 4-5,000 per sq ft to investors first and then selling only part of the stock in phases to the buyers for a higher rate. That’s how they are holding on to high prices.”

Anonymous said...

Do not trust brokers. Brokers have a uncanny ability ability to detect your potential and if they think that you aren't a easy prey, they give you some bullshit to keep you happy so that you may keep them in mind when you hit a lottery. Same way many recent buyers give you exaggerated price just to make you jealous. If you can not afford to buy now like me, just wait and explore less expensive places. But, do not trust any real estate agents

Anonymous said...

anon@6:05 PM

You say
"To me you sound like an idiot who is heavily invested in RE and your wishful thinking is that RE doesn't fall."

and then you say
"The prices all over India will drop and average drops would be at least 50%. Some places will see more drops where there was more insanity."

Is this not wishful thinking? Prices would drop 50%? You are so confident? There is a saying,
"Trend is your friend", do you see the trend yet?

Last 3.5 years people on this blog are predicting 50% drop. Have you seen it yet?

You say
"If you are so confident, why don't you buy some more flats in Pune."

I already have, and I am happy that I have.

shailesh said...

Anon 12:15 PM

Great Time to Buy (Famous Last Words)

Although the National Association of Realtors said for many years that home prices historically don’t fall, actually they do, and sometimes quite sharply. The housing market is complicated, and the future unknowable. Still, for clues to the overall direction of prices, Mr. Ritholtz advises buyers to look at three metrics: the ratio of median income to median home prices, which suggests whether people can afford a house; the cost of ownership versus renting; and the value of the national housing stock as a percentage of gross domestic product.

Tell me how does Indian properties stack up to these formula.

Anonymous said...

a: the ratio of median income (yearly) to median home prices : 1:10

b: the cost of ownership versus renting 30:1

c:the value of the national housing stock as a percentage of gross domestic product - This could be anybody's guess. ??

how can we correlate these

Vinod Baptist said...

Doing my bit - I recommend more of us should spread the word.


Have also - added this blog to my blog. Wish me luck.

Anonymous said...

Fixed rate mortgage owners also scr*wed !!

We all knew that when Banks were talking of 7.25% home loan rates, the Banks were basically pulling a fast one on Indian Middle class. The banks have connived with the Builders and RBI to reach into the middle class consumers pockets by showing him a dream and setting him up with a contract to essentially reduce them to indentured servitude.
What I suspected and found not surprisingly is that people with Fixed Rate Mortgage's are getting the shaft as well!

Anonymous said...

Anon at 12:15AM:::

You are scrutinizing the mail as if you are a lawyer. And maybe you are one with a lot of black money.

You said:
"Last 3.5 years people on this blog are predicting 50% drop. Have you seen it yet?"

No one knew that Govt. will collude with builders and bankers. We all thought GOvt. would work fair for the country and not sell the country away by borrowing massively and printing money.

You said:::
"I already have, and I am happy that I have."

Really good that you have bought flats and buy some more. Don't sell them and wait for them to double the prices. I can bet you are getting into a perfect scenario of getting a good thrashing from your own family when this whole thing nosedives.

Choice is yours. I would suggest, borrow more money from your family and banks and buy more. We'll all wait to see your downfall.

Good luck for morons like you. Also, take a course on basic economics.

Anonymous said...

No one knew that Govt. will collude with builders and bankers. We all thought GOvt. would work fair for the country and not sell the country away by borrowing massively and printing money. "

Why is it not obvious in the Indian Economy, since when common man's interest are upheld? And why do you think same would not repeat? ....

Anonymous said...

I didn't realize there was such a housing bubble in India. Hopefully, it won't turn into California where you have to hire California Bankruptcy Attorney all over the place.

Shamsheer said...

Just some math

For 40 lakh loan at 10% fixed interest for 30 years, monthly mortgage amount will be 35,103 Rs

At the end of 30 years, the borrower would have paid 1,26,37,030 Rs.

If the owner wants to sell the house for a profit at the end of 30years; the house price should continously appreciate at the rate 4% per year.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


Dr umesh said...

rental yield of residential properties in India has come downto 2 % , which is outrageous , it has to go up to 5-6 % , that means there has to be severe crash in the real estate market , amounting to 70 % . same like in stock market rise was sift , while the crash was even severe. 27 pe ratio wasnot justified ever , so is the rental yield of 2-3 % .To maintain the historical avarage rental yield , prices will have to come down . but coming down will be violent and excessive ! Nobody believed sensex would come down from 21000 to 7800 before rising to justifiable level with historial average pe . same thing with real estate would happen . mark my words 70 % crash . As it is also a free market economy . Remember what happened in japan . but unfortunately , it will be a middle class , which will bear the brunt .

Anonymous said...

unethical, unfair real estate prices is the WORST TRUTH in the current economy..I would say. On the top of that people like us are the one who has no financial sense at all and doesn't understand *valuation* of any flat or land before they buy...and that has resulted into such a worst scenario into real estate. All the politicians and builders have totally screwed up the real estate market. Look at pune the way they are capturing all the lands farmers at such a low price which are meant for farming and the whole picture is BAD and while selling the flat, selling it at sky touching prices. Appreciation is understood but it should have some sense for buyer and should be regulated correctly.

god save real estate market.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


people like you have screwed up the market of real estate. This bubble HAS to be blast for good.

Ramanan said...

Already China's bubble has burst and India's is no far away. There is no relation between the Price and the rental income. In chennai if you buy a property for 1 Crore the rental income will be Rs. 18000 to Rs. 20000/- Yield is 2.4%.

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Anonymous said...

real estate will drop 30-45% and will stay subdued for next 7-9 years , people who are buying at these high prices will regret-see the situation in usa, where prices did not go as high as india yet prices have fallen 30--40% in 2- year time.

Anonymous said...

Ratio of house price to salary in INDIA is very high in western world it is half of INDIA, however there are two factors which contribute to high price of houses in India , large population or high demand and second is high corruption, corrupt money always takes shelter of REAL ESTATE in INDIA, if u remove corruption or ILLEGAL Money out of market, Prices will fall 60-70%, so as long as INDIA stays corrupt prices will not fall 70% may be 20-30%

Rainbow Vistas said...

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Anonymous said...

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A (sept 10th, 2010)

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