Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Few flats under Rs 50 lakh...

Skyrocketing property prices over the last few months have taken housing beyond the reach of the salaried class, with barely six per cent of the total new housing stock in Mumbai priced under Rs 50 lakh. On the other hand, a staggering 46 per cent of these flats cost over Rs 1 crore.

Figures compiled by real estate research agency Liases Foras show that of the 8,000-odd flats that make up the unsold housing stock, hardly 500 are priced below Rs 50 lakh.

Article Link

Analysts say these rates are the result not only of increasing prices and sizes of new flats but also of the heavy loading by developers. Most new flats come with frills such as flowerbeds, viewing decks and amenities like clubhouses and swimming pools that are included while calculating the super-built-up area on which flats are sold. This notional loading is as high as 50 to 80 per cent of actual carpet area.

“In case of one-bedroom flats, builders can’t justify a loading of 80 per cent on a flat with a carpet area of 300 sq ft to a buyer who is already hard-pressed for money. It is easier to cover up the discrepancy between actual size and loading in larger flats which is the reason why most developers today are constructing only two to four bedroom flats,” said Sandeep Sadh, CEO of Mumbai Property Exchange.com. The trend is catching on outside Mumbai, too, with developers like Lodha launching Rs 1-crore-plus flats in Dombivli.

95 comments:

shailesh said...

Law to ensure affordable housing?

Sky-high real estate prices that have taken homes beyond the reach of the common man have made the state government contemplate a law to make construction of affordable houses in the city mandatory.

Minister of State for Housing Sachin Ahir on Friday said the government could be forced to introduce a legislation for construction of affordable houses if private builders don’t start constructing affordable houses.

“We have asked builders to create affordable houses. Failure to do so could force us to bring in a legislation and control property rates,” Ahir said. The state’s housing policy of 2007 had made a reservation of 20 per cent for affordable housing in all projects mandatory.

Anonymous said...

Break this nexus between builders, mafia and politician who are manipulating the market to their advantage. Just do not buy, After crash only builders with realistic price and quality will survive. That is the best medicine for current market. If renting is cheaper go for it.

Anonymous said...

I'll be a renter for a long time now. And I'll save my money in banks @8-9% interest. In 10 years I'll make more than my house price doubling in value without any risk of falling prices/maintaining the house or taxes and headache, and all white money with no stealing.

Anonymous said...

Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee predicted in Washington that India could for the first time experience "double-digit" economic growth within the next five years.

On a visit to Washington, Mukherjee gave a bullish outlook for India's economy, saying it has "done exceedingly well in these difficult times through a combination of careful policy making, dynamic industrial leadership and a bit of luck."



Can Pranab tell how much growth is coming from steroids and borrowed money? Does the country have plans on how and when to return the money? Or it is so politically motivated that they want India to go down like another Greece?

If you look at all the failing EU countries, they all had similar growth patterns when borrowing was at its height in those countries. Now where is that growth when they have to pay the money back?

Maybe these countries cannot print Euro. Well, RBI may very well be printing a lot of money giving rise to massive inflation and would eventually devalue Rupee.

Desi Batman said...

@ Anon 5:28 AM

"Well, RBI may very well be printing a lot of money giving rise to massive inflation and would eventually devalue Rupee."

As I mentioned in other thread (reposting here):

Why India HAS NEVER and WILL NEVER face deflation. Here are my thoughts on comparing deflation vs. inflation:

Causes and Events during Deflation:
-------------------
1. Value of Rupee increases
2. Value of white money increases
3. Value of black money decreases
4. Good for common/poor people
5. Affordability of many things increases
6. Salary cuts and layoffs possible to sustain
7. Feels like economy is going down


Causes and Events during Inflation (Opposite of deflation):
-------------------
1. Value of Rupee decreases
2. Value of white money decreases, basically people with cash on hand are SCREWED.
3. Value of black money increases
4. Bad for common/poor people (have-nots), but good for rich people with assets.
5. Affordability decreases.
6. Salary hikes, lots of new hiring, investments.
7. Feels like economy is on run.


Refer to point #3 above: BLACK MONEY will run economy in India during inflation and WHITE MONEY will run economy during deflation. That is why many people say that we have parallel black economy in India. Whenever economy has fear of deflation all government of India has to do is print more money and put that into black market. If money is put into white market that will have opposite effect (i.e. Deflation).

India has always been in inflation. Think about this, what was value of one paisa 30 years ago, 10 years ago and today. Now think about 1 rupee, then 100 rupee.

Anonymous said...

1cr flat in dombivali, lols...this is outrageous!

hmmm, the mentality sure looks like a bubble, though if we are really in one is open to debate.

I don't know what the builders bet on when marketing such projects, the naivety and stupidity of the herd(people who flock to buy at any cost) or real demand.

I would rent any day, unless I have cash down to buy a house, atleast I will exchange it for something of value rather than storing a ever decreasing fiat, home loans, no way sir, they are for slaves of the banks.....

Anonymous said...

"Holy Cascading Inflation, Desi Batman

- The Joker (Manmohan), the Riddler (Montek), the Penguin (Pranab), Catwoman (Sonia) and Two Face (Chidambaram) have joined hands to launch a concerted attack on the Indian middle class."

Dhanaji Rao said...

Due to the high demand, it is unlikely that the prices are ever going to come down in Mumbai. Investors aren't fueling the prices, it is the people who need homes to live. Bad news for the poor, but this is the way the world runs. People who were earning Rs 2000, 2 decades back are earning 200,000 per month today. Similarly homes that were costing 2 lakhs those days, cost 1 cr today. The home prices haven't gone up proportional to salaries or income.

In any developing economies, this is inevitable. I am sure, the homes priced 1 cr today, will be 2 cr in 2-3 years time. This is the ripe time to buy.

Desi Batman said...

@Dhanaji Rao 11:26 AM

Really?? 2 to 3 crores in 2 to 3 years. Therefore by your logic salaries should be up by 100% from 2 lacs to 4 lacs in same time frame.

What is your prediction for 5 years down line? 6 crores for 1-BHK flat in Dombivili?

Whatever your are drinking please do not drink that when you drive.

Anonymous said...

Desi Batsman,

I think whatever way GOI prints money black or white, it will result in inflation. It would be too much money chasing too few goods. TO tame inflation, RI has to increase rates to dry up excess liquidity from the market and stop this stimulus nonsense.

Deflation can only occur if consumers are not there to buy goods and services due to high unemplyment or not willing to buy excessively high priced products or are saving heavily and not spending, which reduces demand and causes price deflation.

Anonymous said...

Dhanaji Rao,
You are smoking pot. Wait till you see prices fall by 50%. Don't be too optimistic. Do you know from where the money comes to pay salaries of GOI employees? Not all from taxes but borrowed money. This will tell you the state of the country.

Anonymous said...

Desi Bat...

Your theory on inflation/deflation is based on current economic trends. US never thought it would have deflation. Everything looked good there and RE prices became 3-4 times in 4-5 years.

India still hasn't seen what can come. Once the downturn hits, you'll see people losing jobs, salary cuts, inventory of RE rising, high crime and in Indian context even a civil war. Indians are not civilized like western nations to keep quiet. They will come to the streets.

Just wait and watch the damage that has been done. Even Dr. Manmohan Singh has indicated his worries about deflation just a few days back. Reason: If US consumers don't consume and unemployment is high in US, China/India don't get their bread to eat. EU is already toast. REprices in India would come to a level people could never think. The problem is when that happens, there would be very less liquidity in the market, more job losses and people would be scared to buy even at low prices. Metros may see 30% price drops and eventually drop by 50%. Suburbs will see 50% drop eventually dropping by 60-70%.

Dhanaji Rao said...

Anonymous manus,

Tuja Aayila....

50% drop!!!! dream on. What is your logic behind 50% drop. Please explain
In the worse case, prices may not go up but, they will never never come down in Mumbai. Other places, I can not comment

Anonymous said...

Listen to the definition of "Bubble" in context of housing bubble in China. The same is going on in India.

Jim Chanos on Charlie Rose

Gadadhari Bhim

Dhanaji Rao said...

Anonymous,
you listen carefully. What Jim is talking about is 'DEBT FINANCED ASSET'. Unlike china, 95% of the real estate assets in India are not debt financed. In India, the function of banks and loan companies, is money laundering, nothing else. The black economy is 3 times bigger than the legitimate white.

Anonymous said...

Mumbai market might crash, it is cheap to buy house in S'pore, Dubai, London and New York than in Mumbai. It might be down by 50% and other metros might come down from 20~30% on conservative estimate. It all depends on how much bubble got created in first place.

NRI ex Mumbai said...

Dhanaji has a point. In olden days the maharajas used to enjoy life at the expense of their subjects. Now such maharajas are replaced by politicians, gangsters and black marketers. While most of the country is starving, these maharajas compete among themselves to occupy the best homes.

India isn't a super power. It is a super market where rich countries peddle their wares and buy the brainy labor.

I am glad that I got an opportunity to migrate. I have been trying to buy a nice place in Mumbai for my aged parents, but now I've realized that I can buy a posh place in Rochester where they can have the best of things and comfortable living. I hope they would understand my reasoning and migrate

India has been a slave for many centuries and my guess is that it will remain so until the world ends

Anonymous said...

Be it Maharajas, black money or thieves stealing money: the RE will definitely come down by 50% or more. These prices will not sustain for a long time.

In 2008/2009 when there was a recession, Indian economy was shaken badly. Wait till the depression hits, which is coming this month all across EU and US.

All this talk about growth is just based on borrowed money.

Indians have been spoiled with easy money for the last 5-6 years. It would be hard for people to come to reality which means high crime and bloodbath on streets.

Desi Batman said...

@ Dhanaji Rao.

What does one have to earn to afford 1 crore house? Let's say down payment of 20%, Loan comes to 80 lacs. EMI at 8% per year for 20 years fixed is 66,915.21 per month i.e. 8,02,982.52 (8 lacs).

Aab aadmi khayega kya aur khujaayega kya,,,

Black money works in closed economy not in global economy. That said, Indian economy ran with parallel black economy for long time, but how far will that help in global economy? Will international countries participate in black money and money laundering? NO.

So take a back seat and enjoy the show that might go on for sometime. We are about to see climax soon, which might not be pretty.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday, the whole world was down in stocks except the gamblers in India. They are very optimistic that India is growing. Sensex is more or less like a Casino now. Even a Rickshawala is buying/selling stocks. Which means massive bubble.

Wait till the reality is revealed. It is the same story of Greece and other EU countries. All this drama is being played by big banks at Wall Streeet to keep the stock market propped up of emerging economies, so that they can make money and get big bonuses. This nonsense would end soon.

Anonymous said...

Rupee is going to 55/USD.

Anonymous said...

‘There are only two truly infinite things: the
universe and stupidity. And I am unsure
about the universe.’ - Albert Einstein

Anonymous said...

DO YOU THINK INDIA'S BODY SHOPPING IS GOING TO SURVIVE IN UK?

Britain’s Budget Cuts Will Result To Loss Of 1.3 Million Jobs Over Next 5 Years. AHN News

London, England, United Kingdom (AHN) - A private Treasury assessment of Britain’s budget cuts predicts up to 1.3 million job losses over the next five years. The job cuts are expected to be spread to 500,000 to 600,000 jobs in the public sector and 600,000 to 700,000 jobs in the private sector until 2015.

The job cuts, resulting from the 25 percent spending reduction in the emergency budget announced by Chancellor George Osborne last week, will average 100,000 to 120,00 public sector and 120,000 to 140,000 private sector jobs yearly.

Anonymous said...

MOODYS HAS BEEN UPGRADING INDIA'S DEBT. EVEN THOUGH INDIA HAS A VERY HIGH DEBT TO GDP RATIO CLOSE TO 88%. now Moody's itself is being downgraded by S&P.

S&P Warns Rival Moody’s: We Might Downgrade You ~ CNBC

Standard & Poor’s has placed rival ratings agency Moody’s on its watch list for a credit downgrade, citing dangers from financial reform legislation that could imperil S&P itself.

Irony abounds in a research note from S&P-a ratings agency warning about a fellow ratings agency’s exposure to a proposed law targeted in part at ratings agencies. The note is only a warning that the A-1 status of Moody’s (NYSE:MCO - News) is in danger, and S&P says the worst-case scenario appears to be a downgrade to A-2.

Anonymous said...

I’m lowering both their ratings to Fuc'-You.

DhImAn said...

Desi Batman, you suggest that there is a difference between black and white money. I posit that there is none.

Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena - increasing money supply is inflation and decreasing money supply is deflation.

Think about it - when it is time to pull out your wallet and spend, do you think - "hmmm, let me give the shopkeeper this note, it is black, and let me keep the white one."?

You don't because there is no difference. When money is spent, it is just money. More money chasing goods and services will lead to an increase in the prices of those goods and services.

Also think about this: you or I did not create black money. "Black" money is either money that was acquired through a bribe, or money on which tax isn't paid.

If the money had remained in the hands of the original owner (and not given to someone else as a bribe), or the original owner gave it as a legitimate gift to say his son would it magically lose purchasing power and thereby cause deflation?

Does money acquire purchasing power when it is given to someone as a bribe? Or when a part of it is not given to someone else as a tax?

No. Money is money. Its purchasing power is simply dictated by its relative scarcity - i.e., quantity in existence.

Thus:

1. Value of Rupee increases

Yes.

2. Value of white money increases

Yes.

3. Value of black money decreases

No. It increases just like all other money.

4. Good for common/poor people

Yes and no. Good for creditors and savers, bad for debtors and spenders.

5. Affordability of many things increases

Not necessarily. Prices may be slow to come down while money remains scarce, making things unaffordable. Think Mercedes in the 1970s. How many people in Mumbai owned one then?

6. Salary cuts and layoffs possible to sustain

Inevitably. People will lose their shirts when the inevitable reversal to mean comes.

7. Feels like economy is going down

Not necessarily. The entire 1900s was a period of mild deflation in the US, yet it was a very prosperous time.

You forgot to mention:

8. Disparity between rich and poor decreases, leading to social stability and general feeling of well being among people.

Anonymous said...

DhiMan:

I'm not sure what your point is. But I know one thing that Indians are not yet ready for the reality. Even after seeing "Fati Gaand" of US and EU, Indians are brave enough to be smiling.

I can see the same future in India as it is all based on same economic theories od west.

And this time it will be a long problem for at least 8-10 years. I'm scared of riots in India as people are impatient and foolish. It is like a rat race there.

Anonymous said...

Mr Dhanaji Rao, Can you substantiate your claim "Unlike china, 95% of the real estate assets in India are not debt financed." by any credible link?

DhImAn said...

Anon @ 9:09 PM

I'm not sure what your point is.

No specific point in this post - just correcting the errors in Batman's theory.

But I know one thing that Indians are not yet ready for the reality. Even after seeing "Fati Gaand" of US and EU, Indians are brave enough to be smiling.

I am sure that the smart money's gaand is also phati hui. The mob never gets it, and thus are ripe for plunder.

I can see the same future in India as it is all based on same economic theories od west.

As can I. The so called economic theories of the west are divided into two primary camps - Keynesian and Austrian. I find myself agreeing with the latter. However, we Indians also have economic theory that predates both western theories by millenia - Artha Shastra. And lets just go with our Shastra for the moment: wherein Dhanam is defined as Suvarnam - or eventually Vasundhara herself. But a flat in Mumbai - fuggedaboutit.

And this time it will be a long problem for at least 8-10 years. I'm scared of riots in India as people are impatient and foolish. It is like a rat race there.

As the eminent Antal E. Fekete says - I'm not in the clairvoyance business. But intuitively I tend to agree with you on this point.

DhImAn said...

Some thoughts on wealth -

So people who think they are wealthy because they "own" a 4 crore flat are deluding themselves. They would be wealthy if they had 4 crores of spendable money.

Merely having a flat that is hypothetically valued at 4 crores is not wealth.

That brings me to a subtle but important point. Even trained professionals in finance and economics miss it.

To illustrate this point, let me ask, if there are 100,000 flats in Vayunagari and if each is valued at 1 crore, what is the total value of the real estate in Vayunagari?

If you answered Rs 100,000 crore, you are wrong. This is because if those flats were to be actually sold on the market, each additional unit would fetch less and less. This is because while the first flat may fetch a crore, and the second, and the third, eventually there will be a point when the supply is so abundant (1 lakh flats) that the marginal utility of the flats starts falling; until nobody wants the last one even for free.

That means that the total value of the real estate in Vayunagari is less, much less than 100,000 crores.

And that is the crux of the point. What is the total value of real estate in Mumbai? What is the real value of the entire Indian economy?

Now there is one thing whose marginal utility declines so slowly that it is almost constant. In other words, even if you have a million units of it, the next unit has, for all practical purposes, the same value as the first. Any guesses what that is?

Yep. Gold. This is the primary reason gold became money, and is money since ancient times.

Now think about the marginal utility of a Rupee. If you have 100 crores, the next rupee doesn't have the same value as the first, does it? That is why people want to spend it so fast, before it crashes in value because someone's marginal utility for it fell to near zero, dragging everyone else along.

Think about the marginal utility of a flat. If you already had ten flats in Mumbai, would you consider getting another one? What if you had a hundred?

Now the marginal utility of a flat is pretty high for a person who works in Mumbai - after all he needs a place to park his backside.

But that need can be satisfied easily by renting, at a fraction of the cost of buying.

The most sensible thing that he can do therefore is to trade something whose marginal utility declines rapidly for something whose marginal utility declines slowly or remains constant.

For something which perhaps has an inverted demand curve - as price rises, demand increases - there being only one thing that does this.

Yes, you guessed it - gold.

If your wealth isn't fungible, dense, portable, or is someone else's liability, or doesn't have constant marginal utility, or doesn't have an inverted demand curve, or is dependent on the geopolitical state at a given time then my dear friend, you aren't wealthy at all.

You're merely under the illusion of being wealthy and you'd better act before the ground slips out from under your feet.

DhImAn said...

Some thoughts on wealth -

So people who think they are wealthy because they "own" a 4 crore flat are deluding themselves. They would be wealthy if they had 4 crores of spendable money.

Merely having a flat that is hypothetically valued at 4 crores is not wealth.

That brings me to a subtle but important point. Even trained professionals in finance and economics miss it.

To illustrate this point, let me ask, if there are 100,000 flats in Vayunagari and if each is valued at 1 crore, what is the total value of the real estate in Vayunagari?

If you answered Rs 100,000 crore, you are wrong. This is because if those flats were to be actually sold on the market, each additional unit would fetch less and less. This is because while the first flat may fetch a crore, and the second, and the third, eventually there will be a point when the supply is so abundant (1 lakh flats) that the marginal utility of the flats starts falling; until nobody wants the last one even for free.

That means that the total value of the real estate in Vayunagari is less, much less than 100,000 crores.

And that is the crux of the point. What is the total value of real estate in Mumbai? What is the real value of the entire Indian economy?

Now there is one thing whose marginal utility declines so slowly that it is almost constant. In other words, even if you have a million units of it, the next unit has, for all practical purposes, the same value as the first. Any guesses what that is?

Yep. Gold. This is the primary reason gold became money, and is money since ancient times.

Now think about the marginal utility of a Rupee. If you have 100 crores, the next rupee doesn't have the same value as the first, does it? That is why people want to spend it so fast, before it crashes in value because someone's marginal utility for it fell to near zero, dragging everyone else along.

Think about the marginal utility of a flat. If you already had ten flats in Mumbai, would you consider getting another one? What if you had a hundred?

Now the marginal utility of a flat is pretty high for a person who works in Mumbai - after all he needs a place to park his backside.

But that need can be satisfied easily by renting, at a fraction of the cost of buying.

The most sensible thing that he can do therefore is to trade something whose marginal utility declines rapidly for something whose marginal utility declines slowly or remains constant.

For something which perhaps has an inverted demand curve - as price rises, demand increases - there being only one thing that does this.

Yes, you guessed it - gold.

If your wealth isn't fungible, dense, portable, or is someone else's liability, or doesn't have constant marginal utility, or doesn't have an inverted demand curve, or is dependent on the geopolitical state at a given time then my dear friend, you aren't wealthy at all.

You're merely under the illusion of being wealthy and you'd better act before the ground slips out from under your feet.

DhImAn said...

Sorry for the double post. Google told me my comment was too large to process, so I hit submit again; but apparently it got accepted the first time.

Anonymous said...

Dhiman, if massive deposits of gold are found, then the value of gold will drop to its extraction cost. Currently about 500 dollars an ounce, but inflating constantly.

Current supply of gold equals about 0.1% of total circulating fiat currencies. If we return to gold standard, gold will be valued at 1000 times current value i.e. 1 million dollars an ounce

Desi Batman said...

@ DhlmAn 8:57 AM

You seem to be well articulated person and educated in economics and finance. Do you mind if I ask you what is your background.

I am no economist or finance MBA guy, just another common man (computer software consultant) trying to survive in this F@#KED UP rat race.

I should have been more clear. There is no difference in Money - black or white. What I meant was the way accouting works, the ratings are given, account books are maintained for investors, media and all representation in ink. I just bifurcated money into two for understanding how black market affects economy.

Today poor class to super rich class in India are always on thinking to avoid paying taxes. What is the best way... do not show it in legal transactions! Do builders show true RE transaction on paper such as 1 crore to 4 crores? Go to any show anywhere in India they have two rates - one with receipt and another without receipt. Believe it or not many Indians stores in USA and UK also operate in same way.

I will now talk in terms of money only. What happens if all money is accounted (white and black) for? You are right... value money value goes down, we have then inflation... which we are already seeing now in India as RE is nice way of converting black to white.
http://www.indianexpress.com/ie/daily/19990822/ibu22050.html

To fight deflation in USA, currency printing press (borrowed) is in full swing to turn into inflation.

Gold standard is simply hedging against inflation or to control inflation, it does not provides any productive value (goods or service) to anyone.
http://economics.about.com/cs/money/a/gold_standard.htm

Desi Batman said...

I agree with Dhiman.

People who think they are wealthy with owning RE worth of crore(s), they forget the value. Basically with sky rocket price of RE soon affordibility will be of staying in 10' by 10' room worth of lacs and crores.

All that has to happen is single incident of crash, herd mentality will take care of the rest. People forgot the days of Harshad Mehta stock craziness. Only this time we have 10 times craziness in RE.

Anonymous said...

well well well, looks like we have both the side of the business here. Anyways one thing is sure if we add up the current value of housing market we are bigger than US or for that matter any country interms of wealth. Imagine, we have 15 million people in mumbai divide by 5, we get 3 mil houses, each house will be worth INR 2.5 million on avergae so we have the value of housing more than USD1.66 trillion alone in mumbai more than India GDP, more than BSE sensex. Now even if we take 50% of above value for balance 3 metros and 25% for banglore and puna etc and add up indians will be the reachest in the world. I know someone said "India is reach but Indians are poor".

Thambi said...

Anonymous anne,
bombay has 20 million population. Census says 14 million, but if you include road side dwellers, I am sure the population is 20 million. Now how many people have proper homes. Not even 25%. How many new flats are built in a year. Few thousands. So, as soon as a flat fit for human living is built, it is grabbed. There is scarcity always. When there is scarcity, prices go high.

Same situation in chennai and bangalore. Your calculation of wealth based on few house prices
is absolutely wrong.

Our GNP per capita is $2200. Even if development continues unabated, it will take few decades, if not centuries to reach the western standard. Dont forget that population is also increasing at an alarming rate.

My prediction is that muslim population will increase exponentially and India is going to be Bharatistan with sharia as the main law. Everybody will have as many wives as possible and umteen children. People will start living on trees and caves.Housing problem is going to be solved once and for all

vanakkam to all

Anonymous said...

Anon above, please check the stats before you make assumptions about muslim polygamy

"A slightly earlier but relevant statistics of polygamy (1961 census report) totally smashes the myth of Muslim polygamy, unless the social trends have worsened drastically, which obviously have not. As per this, the incidence of polygamy is highest among the Adivasis (15.25) followed by Buddhists (7.9), Jains (6.72), Hindus (5.80) and behold, followed by Muslims (5.70). Research carried out by Mallika B Mistry of Gokhle institute of Pune, concludes that "there is no evidence that the percentage of polygamous marriages (among Muslims) is larger than the Hindus". A comparison of nuptiality patterns for Hindus and Muslims shows great similarity, the incidence of polygamy has been declining among both Hindus and Muslims."

Anonymous said...

thambi, please do proper research before pointing fingers

A slightly earlier but relevant statistics of polygamy (1961 census report) totally smashes the myth of Muslim polygamy, unless the social trends have worsened drastically, which obviously have not. As per this, the incidence of polygamy is highest among the Adivasis (15.25) followed by Buddhists (7.9), Jains (6.72), Hindus (5.80) and behold, followed by Muslims (5.70). Research carried out by Mallika B Mistry of Gokhle institute of Pune, concludes that "there is no evidence that the percentage of polygamous marriages (among Muslims) is larger than the Hindus". A comparison of nuptiality patterns for Hindus and Muslims shows great similarity, the incidence of polygamy has been declining among both Hindus and Muslims.

Anonymous said...

apologies for double post, the first one just did not appear for a long time so I reposted it albeit addressing the correct guy...

Anonymous said...

Hypothetical situation:
What happens if current 1 crore rupees Real Estate falls to 50 lacs? will we have more buyer or less buyers?

Will you buy RE at Rs 50 lacs?

Anonymous said...

Breaking News:

Now own a small apartment in Breach Candy for approx 1.4 Crores including all the best amenities.

Follow the link http://www.priceit.in/price-of-rvs/2010-winnebago-tour-rv-price/
& park it in Breach Candy

Anonymous said...

For people who say higher salaries will keep the bubble intact in India:

“It’s now been 20 years that Japan has had property and market declines”

Which proves that there is absolutely no connection between property valuations & wages across a National scale…

Thambi said...

@Anonymous anna, 8:37


My post was hypothetical . Most slum dwellers in mumbai, chennai and bangalore are muslims, so reasonable assumption that they are driven to lead this life due to polygamy and breeding like rats. I could be wrong

Anonymous said...

India's per capita GNP is less than 1000$ per annum, not 2200$ per annum

Anonymous said...

To Anon at 9:47 AM

I can tell you from experience that if RE crashes so that 1Cr flat falls to 50lacs, no one would like to buy it.

It sounds strange, but people want to buy RE when it is rising. Once RE starts falling, the expectation builds that it will fall more and the buyers vanish.

Anonymous said...

In a country where gnp is less than $1000, the average home prices are more than double than USA whose gnp is more than $45000.

Can anyone care to explain. I live in USA and not visited India for the last 5 years. My apartment in Manhattan, (carpet area around 1000 sq.ft ), is valued US $160,000 roughly around 75 lakh indian rupees. During my last visit , i stayed at a hotel in mumbai suburb called leela penta paying through my nose. Comparing the hotel and my residence, i can confidently say that i live in a 10,000 times better place. I paid $200 per night for the hotel and i'd say that that hotel isn't worth $20 compared to American hotels.

i was thinking of buying a place for my brother in mumbai, but now i realise that i can't afford it

F*ck India and F*ck bharatmata

Anonymous said...

Homes have lost its warmth, since we are making it an "investment".

I remember, my grandpa was a peon in Govt Bank, and during 80s he could afford to buy a piece of land not too far away from main city, and build his house.

Even though I work in IT, I just cannot dream of doing what he was able to do with his meager means..

I wonder, should I just stop dreaming that I too can own house?

Anonymous said...

@ DhImAn

Black money is not hard earned money.

We will think twice before spending our hard earned money. With black money a person would have more purchasing power. He wont mind if more of it is spent/wasted.

How would you spend Rs. 10000 if its a gift or your hard earned money.

I think that people who have black money have to spend it. Else they risk it being stollen. Hence many want to invest in real estate. Also that would be a good way to convert black to white.

Sometimes white money does increase purchasing power, but only for small value items. Some rich folks dont mind paying Rs. 5-10 extra for vegetables. But they are not going to shell out more than Rs. 500 for any other service. If its your hard earned money will you go out and see flop movies? If a company sponsers the tickets people will go and see it even it if means wasting time!

More white money is money which we can account for. This will surely decrease the value of black money. Why is there little black money in western countries where most of the transactions are via banks!

A friend recently went to Borivili east to enquire for a flat. The builder was quoting 80 L for a 2 bhk; 40 % in black and 60% in white. How can one get 32 L in cash, and how should one account for it? The builder did mention that many doctors and small time businessmen are facing similar problems. They can get the loan but not the 32 L cash for the down payment.

~ s

Anonymous said...

@ DhImAn

The rules of the game have changed. No need to give black as cash. A bank draft or cheque is accepted by all builders. But the beneficiary is some benaami. The bank/it dept are all aware of this and act as money launderers. Everyone gets a cut from the builder. The buyer doesn't have to worry about this

DhImAn said...

S - you said:

Black money is not hard earned money.

You are making a distinction that isn't there. If I pay you a bribe, that money may not have been hard earned for you, but it was for me. If that money you got increased your purchasing power by a certain amount, it decreased my purchasing power by an equal amount.

So while your propensity to spend increases, mine decreases. It is a zero sum game.

Ultimately, perhaps what you are saying is that since propensity to spend is increasing, it must be because black money is increasing. You aren't far from the truth, but while there is a correlation, there isn't causality, i.e., while increase in black money goes hand in hand with increased propensity to spend, my point is that the former is not the cause of the latter.

I put forward to you that both are effects - of the same ultimate cause - the government creating money supply at an ever increasing rate. After all, be it black or white, at one point in time it was absolutely milky white - having being born in the clean, sterile rooms of the RBI.

This increase in the money supply makes money abundant - all you have to do is reach out, and you can grab a handful. This is true today, regardless of black or white money. There are idiots bringing more idiotic services or products, and making money hand over fist.

So I posit that all money today is easy money, and so the propensity to spend it increases.

Hence I don't make the distinction between black and white money. The attitudes you see today are those that develop during times of easy money. The lack of loyalty of servants, the f**k you attitude of employees towards their employers, the lack of politeness and respect in society, the increase in crimes of envy - all because of monetary policy!

Now assume that money became tight - all the brashness of an employee will get flushed down the toilet - he will wax poetic about unflinching loyalty - namak halaal - etcetera, because losing his job is akin to suicide. Naturally he'll become polite, not indulge in bad behavior, let alone crime, and so on.

Therefore, believing that real estate (or any market for that matter) is going to rise forever is tantamount to believing that the money supply will forever increase. However, money supply of a country is governed by lots of external factors, such as the balance of trade for one - and to save the currency from collapse, any central bank could resort to tightening of the money supply.

And should that happen - you'll want to get out of the way of the bubble bursting - or else you'll get wiped out.

DhImAn said...

Desi Batman said:

You seem to be well articulated person and educated in economics and finance.

Thank you for the compliment, and the same goes for you too!

Do you mind if I ask you what is your background.

Like you, I am no economist or finance MBA guy. I am an engineer - electronics actually.

I am no economist or finance MBA guy, just another common man (computer software consultant) trying to survive in this F@#KED UP rat race.

I'm not trying to survive in the rat race - mercifully I am relatively comfortable financially - and as you know, the richest is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least. My needs are modest.

However, I am trying to make sense of this f**ked up rat race - because I sort of enjoy the challenge. As such I taught myself Austrian economics and such, but my ideal remains Sadi Carnot. Look him up. He derived the entire theory of thermodynamics by doing "thought experiments".

This is what I am trying to apply to get a handle on the situation. After all, if we can be engineers and create everything man made - why can't we understand economics? It isn't rocket science, you know.

Desi Batman said...

What you get for Rs. 5.4 crores in developed world.

USD 1.2 million = INR 5.4 crores (exchange rate: Rs 45)

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/23/real_estate/disney_homes/index.htm?postversion=2010062315

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/01/real_estate/Manhattan_home_prices/index.htm

What you will get today for 5 crores in Mumbai. 1 BHK in Khar(w) !!! W T F

Desi Batman said...

sorry for repost. urls got chopped off. Here are they again. and AGAIN WTF !!

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/23/real_estate/disney_homes/index.htm?postversion=2010062315

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/01/real_estate/Manhattan_home_prices/index.htm

Anonymous said...

Possible in India? NO NO. Possible in developed country. Read this:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128078864&sc=emaf&source=patrick.net

source: patrick.net

Anonymous said...

Desi Batman, etc

You guys keep going ga ga over what one can buy in NY/SFO/LA/London at the price of a 1BHK in Khar, fine but even if more than half the people buying houses at these rates can afford to buy there how can they?

Its only the NRIs, OCIs and all who have made it there have that previlage.

All the rest, probably crores of wannabes will still have no choice but to buy in India. BBP (Builders, Banks, Policitians) nexus are well aware of this. I rest this case.

NT

Desi Batman said...

@ NT 9:22 AM

Median household income in USA : USD 52,029 (Rs. 23.41 lacs)
Median owner occupied housing in USA: USD 119,600 (Rs. 53.82 lacs)
Median household income (2000) in New York City: USD 55,980
Median owner occupied housing in New York City: USD 148,700

To let you know that this is not 'ga ga' or 'sa re ga ma...' here is the URL:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36000.html

Care to compare that in India/Mumbai.

Are you suggesting that all Mumbai RE fueling is because of NRIs/OCIs? What is your source of information?

I believe NRIs and OCIs generally buy RE in India for their parents, siblings and their better living if they want to return to India.

This bubble is because of speculation and herd mentatlity of Indians. Yes, now you can rest your case.

DhImAn said...

Batman said:


This bubble is because of speculation and herd mentatlity of Indians.


Spot on. This is exactly right. It was herd mentality that created bubbles elsewhere in the world, and it is herd mentality in India as well.

All the arguments denying the existence of a bubble - we've heard them all before - it's different this time, it's different here, we've reached a permanently high plateau - yada, yada, blah, blah, ad nauseum. And yet, inevitably, every bubble that formed since time immemorial collapsed and became part of the dung heap of history.

Real Estate in India - soon it will be your turn.

Anonymous said...

Guys, I can understand your frustration at folks getting crores for their flats in Mumbai, you might not see its worth, but the builder knows it and he is ready to pay. Why bother? And if you are not able to afford it in Mumbai, you have lots of options, India is much bigger than Mumbai.

Why get stuck with Mumbai?
Its slumbai anyways.....

PanditPund

Anonymous said...

PanditPund Bhayya,

you have a valid point. Not even 5% of flats are purchased by speculator. The needy ones buy it. They pay the price asked by the builder. They buy the flat to live and not to make money on it. They will not cry if the flat prices fall by 50% or rejoice if the prices rise by 50%. Flat is like jewelery. No one buys jewelery with the intention of selling and making profit.
The high prices are due to high demand and short supply of inventory. Mumbai population is growing at 10% rate and the homes built dont even cater for 1% population growth.

Govt has the means to control the situation but these high prices benefit them and therefore they are letting the market to take its own course

Anonymous said...

Law to insure affordable housing...fuhget it!

The government plans to make builders pay for roads, rail and monorail facility that runs through their vicinity.

Ofcource the 'oh so holy' builders will pass on the rates to their customers.

This means another spike in the rates of RE.

Trust me guys this is madness, I don't know where the fuck did they bring in this rule from ? never heard of such a thing ever from any part of the world.

Probably there will come a time when the super builtup area will include entire Mumbai ka cost also!

It seems that the GOI is trying to milk the holy RE cow as long as it can, then will come the dump and bears like me will move into the market to make a killing.

For all you RE bulls wanting to attack me at my previous sentence, then know ye that I am in no hurry and I am willing to wait 10-15-20 years for this to unravel....

And if it does not happen then still I coudn't care less, as I already own a house in Mumbai.

shailesh said...

Silence Is Audible

The flat in Powai was 15 lakh in 2005 and 95 lakh today.

Anonymous said...

Hi Dhiman,

I found some of your thesis does not stand scrutiny. Hope you would take a look.

Dhiman said: To illustrate this point, let me ask, if there are 100,000 flats in Vayunagari and if each is valued at 1 crore, what is the total value of the real estate in Vayunagari?

Me say: Why would we want to take all 100000 units all at once?? If we are to take 100 units at one time,(which incidentally is what most builders construct in a township), the builders might sell t a few units at a time. And they might realise the 100 crore(1 crore /property) from the project. Now aggregate many such 100 houses from different parts of the country, we could as well see an upwars curve. So for what I know, the value of RE is only what people think it is.Its has a perceptory value that which could evaporate with whims of people.When people thnk its not worth it, its value falls and vice versa.

Dhiman said: In other words, even if you have a million units of it, the next unit has, for all practical purposes, the same value as the first. Any guesses what that is? Yep. Gold.

Me says: Well, In the past,whenever we had new supply of gold (from mines or wars)in the country, the price of every other thing in the world increased aand vice versa a.k.a inflation. When the supply was nil, the prices remained same and when supply decreased, the prices would deflate. Moreover when the price of some commodity increased, say tomatoes due to drought, then the prce of eveything else would decrease. And that was then. I personally dont think we would have this huge developments if not for fiat currencies.And for the same reason, i think this development is unnatural, cos its not backed by nature.

Gold again was the currency of the past so it could hold its forte. But not the gold of today, which is more of a commodity. So it would take the up and down cuve and certainly could lose value depending on the whims of money bags.But not if world gvts choose to elevate gold to ts eminent status. Alas, they would not do that cos state is anti-gold and anti-flexible.

Dhman says:For something which perhaps has an inverted demand curve - as price rises, demand increases - there being only one thing that does this.Yes, you guessed it - gold.

I say: Isn't it the same with RE???Just as you said later, people are being herd and buying what everyone else does.People buy RE as t goes up and so they will with gold.As i mentioned above, gold is still a commodity. And just lke RE, when money bags decide they have had it, they would pull the plug. No matter which, RE or Gold.

Most of the ecomomists mght be arguing for gold but I would stick my neck out. The collapse of both RE AND Gold are imminent. But surely the collapse of RE would precede the one of gold.

Good day, gentlemen.
Su-Al

samix said...

anon above collapse of gold ?
with all due respect you need to understand gold better.....

Anonymous said...

Gold is hedge against inflation. Price of gold had descreased and can descrease drastically almost upto 50% once glabl economies pick up.

http://www.soyouthinkyoucanrant.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Anonymous said...

All Gujaratis and Bihar/UP bhayyas should be thrown out of mumbai. then the prices will fall

Anonymous said...

You can live in a flat. It serves a need.

You can only make jewellery from gold.

Cant eat it.

Cant wear it.

Cant make a house out of it.

We keep gold in the fond hope that we can buy roti kapda and makaan with it in an emergency.

What if the seller refused to part with these useful thing for useless gold?

Anonymous said...

To all gold bears above, you can't teach experience...

Anonymous said...

To all gold bulls above, you cant teach experience ...

samix said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

US commercial property meltdown coming soon, lets see what effect this has on our apna bloated RE market...

DhImAn said...

Su Al:

I found some of your thesis does not stand scrutiny. Hope you would take a look.

OK, lets.

Why would we want to take all 100000 units all at once??

Because that's what people do when they say things like "Mumbai has real estate valued at a total of Rs. 100,000 crores" or the "US is a 10 Trillion dollar economy". I was simply pointing out that this doesn't represent the true, liquidation value, and is therefore an unreliable measure.

This was in answer to people who say, "India's economy is growing" - to which I ask, "How do you know for sure?"

Fifty years ago, even a humble peon had a chance at getting a house and living a moderately respectable life. There weren't as many beggars on the streets or prostitutes in the chawls.

I would even dare say that those times were probably more prosperous than today. The rich-poor disparity wasn't so great that the poorest ate feces of the street while the rich lived in ivory towers surrounded by an army of servants.

However, all the metrics seem to indicate that today is a more prosperous time, but today's hardships are harder than ever. The inevitable conclusion therefore would be that the metrics are wrong, somehow.

Well, In the past,whenever we had new supply of gold (from mines or wars)in the country, the price of every other thing in the world increased aand vice versa a.k.a inflation... etc

Just to be clear, we are talking about gold, not God. Sure, gold is a physical thing, and will behave like one. If you increase the supply, its value will come down and vice versa. However, amongst all "things", as in physical entities, the stocks to flows ratio of gold is the highest. That is, the stock is about 50-70 times the flow. Annual mine supply accounts for less than 2% of stock, meaning that you can't sway the relative scarcity of gold by more than 2% in a year.

This makes gold a most stable money. Of course it doesn't become God, unchanging forever. That is not a valid expectation to have from a money.

Central banks print that much in a few days, effortlessly.

Isn't it the same with RE???

OK, lets put it this way. Gold has been a money or monetary metal for say 10,000 years. Show me a single place on this planet where real estate remained on the same footing for one tenth, or even one twentieth that duration.

Lest you forget, let me remind you, our grandfathers and their fathers and their fathers also had gold and real estate available to them. They had the same choice as your or me today. Hold gold or hold land.

For wealth preservation, financial security and investment, they overwhelmingly chose gold. So much so that gold is a part of our Indian culture - specifically Hindu culture since time immemorial. The rich businessman had a thousand gold coins, which his son lost because the son was foolish... etc. Do you see as much reverence for real estate?

Why not?

DhImAn said...

All Gujaratis and Bihar/UP bhayyas should be thrown out of mumbai. then the prices will fall

Sure, lets throw out the productive classes, and promote lazy and corrupt ghatis. While we are at it, lets throw ghatis out of Bangalore.

Fu*k you and your intolerant attitudes. It is people like you who bring shame to the rest of us as descendants of Rama, Harishchandra, the great Rishis and so on.

You forget that in your own veins runs the same blood as was in the most brilliant, most illustrious people the world has ever known and you act like street trash.

I hope you are shamed enough to correct your attitudes.

Anonymous said...

People in India should think like Indians and not from UP or Bihar or South. People should have liberty to stay in any state they want. This North/South thing seems more political to me rather people really worrying about it and it would flare up again during election time.

Anonymous said...

People move to places where there are employment opportunities. They work hard to support their families. They contribute to the economy. In Mumbai 60% of the population is non maharashtrians. To avoid constant bickering by marathi politicans/goondas, mumbai city should be declared as a union territory. just like delhi.

Anonymous said...

Warning signals of a double-dip recession of a double-dip recession flash brightly across the world.


Global bond markets are flashing warning signals of a sharp slowdown in growth across the world and a possible slide toward a double-dip recession and outright deflation.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 10:53PM BST 29 Jun 2010


The volume of goods shipped around the world is a key barometer used by economists when looking at the state of the global economy.

The Baltic Dry Index that measures freight rates for bulk goods – and watched as a proxy for the ups and downs of the Chinese economy – has dropped by 40pc over the past month.

The Bank of New York ­Mellon said its flow data had picked up a relentless flight from both Greek and Italian debt. It is clear evidence that the EU’s €750bn shield with the IMF for eurozone debtors has failed to restore the confidence of global investors, who fear that the EU’s austerity strategy risks setting off a self-defeating downward spiral.

Spreads on Greek debt have jumped 350 basis points since the EU announced its plan in early May. Portuguese and Spanish yields have both jumped sharply despite direct action by the European Central Bank to force down yields. Private buyers are clearly dumping their holdings onto the ECB as fast they can.

DhImAn said...

You can live in a flat. It serves a need.

...

What if the seller refused to part with these useful thing for useless gold?


The single most important need that gold serves, and that cannot be served by anything else is it functions as honest money.

It keeps governments and bankers honest, simply because it cannot be created out of thin air.

This and this alone is such an important need that everything else pales in comparison.

However, let me try to answer your specific question.

In a hypothetical scenario a seller could refuse to accept gold, but in the real world which we inhabit, there is always a willing taker for gold.

If you were at the end of the world scenario, where someone had the last kg of wheat with him and you had the last kg of gold, then maybe the guy with the wheat may not care about your gold. But in such a scenario, both of you are going to die anyway.

In every other scenario, if a farmer has 1000 kg of wheat, and you have gold, he will sell you wheat for gold, because wheat is a consumable, and will spoil in a short while, whereas gold will not.

Wheat represents eating power today - gold represents eating power tomorrow, and therefore it is in the farmers best interest to convert his temporary good - wheat - into a permanent one - gold.

You the buyer, have to eat today, so you convert your gold to eating power today.

People make the mistake of assuming that gold is for emergencies. Far from it - gold is the sound money of sound economies - the money of prosperous nations and of good times.

Spend some time understanding gold, dear reader. It will be to your future advantage.

Anonymous said...

China Real Esatae Bubble Song

How Long Does it take for the Average Chinese Worker to Buy a Home?

In the traffic congested city streets, an advertiser was busy handing out flyers for the newly constructed condos. “Beautiful homes, starting at 29,800 yuan per square meters”, one flyer ended up in the hands of a cab driver who was waiting in traffic. He looked at the flyer and thought “It takes 125 years in order to buy this home”.

A young man got into the cab and picked up the flyer on his way to work. Up in the elevator, punched his time card at exactly 9 am, he rushed into his cubical to start his day of work. Then he read the flyer and thought “It takes 87 years to buy this home.” Foaming at the mouth, he threw the ad into the trashcan.

A cleaning worker lady at this company picked up the trashcan and also saw the ad. “It takes 255 years to buy this home”, she broke into tears.

Anonymous said...

why china yaar. i am earning 20,000 p.m gross, even if i work till old age, i wont be able to buy anything in mumbai. maybe a zopda, but not flat

This is reality yaar. what can we do

Anonymous said...

Roti is perishable, kapda is perishable, makaan is not.

With world wide global currency debasement, there is likely to be a differential between gold price inflation and flat price inflation.

Buying a kilo of gold to later convert into a flat may not work - scarcity value of gold is stable, scarcity value of flat is unstable.

Anonymous said...

value of houses is only grow to increase when there is massive devaluation in rupee. Say if rupees becomes Rs.80+ against dollar. Otherwise, home prices will defiantly go down 25% in next 3-4 years.

People need to understand that prices can not increase 25% every year because people simply have no money.

Few days back I went to hiranandani estate thane to buy flat and he had 8 READY apartments available for sale, after 2 months he still have 4 available. He sold only 4 flats in 2 months thats week. But again he only have 8 flats left all others are under construction.

Anonymous said...

Regency estate in thane has 50+ flats ready available for sale since last 6 months but have no takers because prices are high, they are even giving discounts if you are ready to book immediately.

Prices are high and may be growing but there is no sale. Sales have dropped 70% in mumbai and nebouring area. Get out, prices are going to slide in next 12 months.

Anonymous said...

There is also shopping mall bubble in India, you can see tons of huge air condition shopping malls mashrooming all around india, but inside story is most people go there just to hang out and don't shop anything. at least 50% of them are going to close soon like vishal mega mart taking investors money with themself. Be very caution investing in retail company stocks in India.

DhImAn said...

Roti is perishable, kapda is perishable, makaan is not.

Makaan is also perishable, just over a longer timespan. Do you see Rama's Ayodhya palace around? Or perhaps The Pandavas' Indraprastha palaces? Or maybe buildings from before 1945 in Nagasaki or Hiroshima? Or many structures from before 1993 in Latur? Or 2001 in Bhuj?

However, even this fades to insignificance when you consider that makaan doesn't have to be physically perishable - the mere fact that its value is perishable - and you already agreed to this by saying that it is "unstable" - is enough to put gold at the top position when it comes to preserving purchasing power.

History has clearly demonstrated, time and time again, over the entire period that mankind has existed - that gold is the better preserver of value.

Anonymous said...

Dhiman:

Perhaps, we agree to disagree on gold.

In spite of you quoting past in your defence,i hope future would explicitly and definitively answer the dichotomy we find ourselves in, as i beleive the laws of nature have been hung out to dry by the leaders of men and this grotesque exuberance too shall end.

We shall find out sooner or later.One of us would be left standing.

Su-Al.

Anonymous said...

Can anyone analyze the property trends/bubble in Delhi/NCR. Specifically Noida, Greater Noida, Gurgaon.

Mumbai is way too extreme expensive.

But Delhi/NCR region still selling properties in less than 50 lakh and less than 30 lakh (read noida extension), though one can doubth the time to develop and livable conditions of these areas. But from accessibility perspective they are accessible.

nisha said...

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mba

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