Thursday, December 16, 2010

Christmas is coming but realty market’s not yet fat Read more: Christmas is coming but realty market’s not yet fat - The Times of India http://times

Article Link

A source in a leading property fund said that while the suburbs have witnessed an average slowdown of 30%, south and central Mumbai have seen a drop in sales by 45%. "There is a fatigue factor. How long can prices keep increasing?" said a developer from south Mumbai.

For instance, in Borivli, property prices in new residential constructions have shot up from Rs 8,000 per sq ft to Rs 12,000 per sq ft a year ago. In Andheri (west), rates have jumped from Rs 12,000 to Rs 18,000 per sq ft in upcoming projects.


Property developer Nayan Shah said the rates had shot up by 30% to 40% in the past year, but developers were still holding on to prices. "The cost of transfer of development rights (TDR) and construction material like sand had shot up substantially," he said, adding that the government had been slow in reforming the housing sector.

Another developer said sales had slowed down in the last two months. "What is worse is that liquidity in the market has dried up. Public sector unit banks have tightened the screws after the LIC housing scam," he said.

55 comments:

Anonymous said...

so, how soon until the price reaches infinite?

shailesh said...

Real estate prices soar before planes

Now, a gunta (1,089 sq ft) of land goes for about Rs 12 lakh, compared with Rs 2 lakh two years ago. If villages in the area are reaping the harvest of this money — with farmers selling land and turning real estate agents or suppliers of building materials — the small port town of Uran, 23 km from Panvel, can’t seem to figure out what to do with this money.

Panvel, of course, is the centre of all attraction and real estate prices here have reached stratospheric levels. Consider this: Just a few kms away near Rasayani, Indiabulls Green is building 29,000 flats over 80 acres. When the project was announced a year ago, the rate was Rs 2,200 a sq ft; it has now touched Rs 4,000. A four-bedroom flat will cost Rs 1 crore and Indiabulls plans to sell about 65 such units. A marketing executive at the project site says 1,300 flats have been sold, mostly one BHKs (Rs 34 lakh) and two BHKs (Rs 48-54 lakh).

Competition is starting to heat up with an increasing number of residential projects like Swapna Nagari and Mahalaxmi in Nere village. About 12 km away near Patalaganga, Hiranandani Palace Garden is coming up as an integrated township with residences over 280 acres and commercial real estate over 18 million sq ft. Farmhouses with swimming pools and dance floors are sprouting everywhere.

So, it’s natural that real estate agent Kulwade, who has a swanky office at New Panvel, has a queue outside his office through the day. Kulwade, who ran his agency solo from a small rented space, now has five assistants attending customers like Laxmi Iyer, a resident of Sydney, and her brother, a doctor working in London.

“How much will the appreciation be after five years if I invest in a two-bedroom flat here?” Iyer asks. That is a common question Kulwade never tires of answering. Kulwade knows he has to be one up on his competitors (Panvel alone has over 1000 real estate agents). So, apart from the Navi Mumbai airport and the Sewri bridge projects, his market promotion includes a farmhouse owned by actor Salman Khan, just after the Gadeshwar river.

Anonymous said...

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY NOW.. or you will regret it tomorrow.

real state prices in panvel and khargar are going to touch $1000 / sq.ft. (Rs.45000 sq.ft.) due to airport, they are now selling flats for only $100 sq.ft. (rs.4500). thats the bargin man.

oh yes, but there are no roads, no schools, no safety, no police, no proper water supply. YET, but that is going to be installed as soon as airport is built and people start living. hey about electricity, yes there is tons of it, only 4-5 hours load shedding.

hey what about USA where prices of homes are about $10-$50 sq.ft., are kya USA, india is growing, population is growing, people of india are now going to be richest and everybody will live in million dollars houses in next few years.

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.


LOL

ashu said...

Real estate Price in India are hiked up by speculator. price can go up to a level. After every peak there is a valley.Once the downward trend start the speculators would run away like rats in the sinking ship. Real estate is the necessity of Indians. Govt. should not make it a thing of investment where all the politicians,bureaucrats,
officers,brokers,builders are making fool of general public by earning huge profit in black money. Thank you Sardar Manmohan Singh this is the right way of growing economy.

Anonymous said...

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY NOW.. or you will regret it tomorrow.

real state prices in panvel and khargar are going to touch $1000 / sq.ft. (Rs.45000 sq.ft.) due to airport, they are now selling flats for only $100 sq.ft. (rs.4500). thats the bargin man.


At the current price, all I can afford to BUY is a bathroom, BUT water supply in that bathroom is different issue and not real estate discussion.

LMAO.. ;)

Desi Batman said...

hey what about USA where prices of homes are about $10-$50 sq.ft., are kya USA, india is growing, population is growing, people of india are now going to be richest and everybody will live in million dollars houses in next few years.

BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY.

===> this is exactly what MNC want in India. They are pumping money everyday so that people BUY BUY and BUY till they are neck deep in debt. Indians have long way to go to be in debt as Americans are (Americans are already saturated in debt).

Regarding people living in Million dollar houses.... I think many already are living in million dollar houses: USD 1 million = Rs. 4.5 crores.

Can we please talk in 10's of millions now please. Single digit million dollar in India sounds cheap.

shailesh said...

Realty Check

Be it the upsurge in the stock markets (the Sensex recently came very close to its all-time high of 21,000 points) or the sky-rocketing property prices in the city (they have gone past their pre-slowdown peak levels of 2007), India’s financial capital, Mumbai, seems to have become a cause for concern for the Reserve Bank of India. “Asset prices in India, as in many other emerging market economies, have risen sharply. Although the income levels of households and earnings of corporates in India have continued to rise, a sharp rise in asset prices in such a short time causes concern,” said RBI Governor D. Subbarao while presenting the second quarterly review of the monetary policy.

While Mumbai and Delhi-NCR are investor-driven markets, others are largely end-user driven and do not get disturbed by price fluctuations or volatility in investor markets. “Real estate is always location-specific. While bulk of the money going into real estate in cities like Mumbai and Delhi comes from investors who aim to earn quick bucks, the trend is quite different in places like Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad,” said Bharat Dhuppar, chief marketing officer, Mantri Developers. It is in these investor markets, he said, where property bubbles are created.

Categorising the spending on real estate in India under three heads—self user, investor and speculator—Vakil said the sharp upsurge in property prices in Mumbai was led by speculators and followed by investors. “Speculators are people who have no intention of staying on. On the contrary, they drag their feet in even paying their instalments. They are at the centre of such abrupt price movements. They are followed by investors, who are genuine people who bet high on real estate,” he said.

Anonymous said...

Why Housing Prices are not correcting significantly?

In order to understand the pricing dynamics we have to check
who all are involved & benefiting from housing bubble.
All the parties can be divided into 3 categories.
Bubble beneficiary- It include Government[central + state], builders, land lords, Investors, advocates, building material suppliers, building service providers, estate brokers, existing home owner.
Affected parties- End user i.e buyer.
Indifferent Parties- These include rest of the people who are not aware of what is happening & not even concerned.

Govt – In order to finance the widening deficit, govt has to collect taxes. And higher revenue can be collected, only if the tax base is high. Note, politician & rich people are tax exempt parties they have numerous ways to exemption.
Central govt income = 2.75% service tax. + stamp duty charges.
State govt income = Registration charges.
From 2005 to 2010, the govt. expenditure is doubled, so who is going to pay for it?
http://equity-analyst.com/india-central-government-fiscal-deficit.html
Lawyer = Legal fees.
Real estate Broker fees = 2% from each party.
Land lord = Unimaginable valuation of property.
Investors = Return on investments.
Builder = 40-50% gross profits of property price.
Building material suppliers + contractors = Higher prices for resources.
Existing home owner = The prosperity feeling, that you own highly priced asset.

It’s very clear that people who want the bubble are outnumbered the people who are
affected by it.

Vulture.

Anonymous said...

Include Financial Institutions as another major beneficiary from price bubble.

Vulture

Anonymous said...

Ghost Cities in China!! Check out this url:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html#ixzz18XKsh7HI

Anonymous said...

want to see ghost city in mumbai? check out khargars new sector, its has full buildings but no residence at all.

vik

JaiBaba said...

Aaz ki tazaa khabar...
Onion 70Rs per kg. , Onions being imported from Pakistan.

India Shining! Why you guys are cribbing about RE prices, it is growth. Kal jo laakho mein tha, aaj woh karor mein hain...enjoy!

shailesh said...

Property rates zoom, home loan disbursals head down

Sales are down 45% in Mumbai and 35% in the suburbs. And these developers have repayments to make. So, by April, we expect them to cut prices if they want to survive because banks are not at all looking at refinances or easy lending,” a senior HDFC official said.

The managing director of an international property consultancy said, “These developers haven’t really learnt their lesson yet. People have seen hikes of, let’s say, at best 40% whereas prices have moved up by a minimum 35%. So how can that person buy that property? Also, there is no guarantee of these developers actually putting up the project in the stipulated time. Sales in the premium segment are negligible. If they don’t reduce prices —- and the RBI is watching with a hawk eye —- this time no one will rescue them.”

Some developers are still putting on a brave face.

“There has been a drop in sales in the island city but not in the suburbs,” said Dharmesh Jain, managing director, Nirmal Lifestyle. Abhishek Lodha, managing director, Lodha group, had earlier said that Mumbai has seen a drop of around 15% in residential sales.

Also, numbers available from the stamp duty registration office in Mumbai show that the registrations have been declining since July. October saw only 6,258 documents registered, Mumbai and its suburbs included.

“The festival season, which is the third quarter of the financial year, is the peak sales season, but this year there has been no growth in numbers, which shows that there is a need for price correction,” said an analyst at one of the bigger brokerages in the city.

Anonymous said...

khargars new sector is ghost town???? Wrong information. The going price is khargar is from 7000~ 9000 sq ft. Once the problems of water, transport are solved, it is going to be the most desirable place in entire maharashtra

Anonymous said...

You guys talk about Rs. 10,000 (~$250) like it's nothing. Interesting.

Are you crying over price of Onions and other commodities? I hope not, because best is yet to come.

Enjoy.

Desi Batman said...

Anonymous @6:19 AM

khargars new sector is ghost town???? Wrong information. The going price is khargar is from 7000~ 9000 sq ft. Once the problems of water, transport are solved, it is going to be the most desirable place in entire maharashtra


So, please enlighten when would the issues for basic necessities(water, transport) be resolved? and what price tag of your paradise do you expect?

Desi Batman said...

Dikshit directs raids against onion hoarders

Why not raid the RE hoarders? Why outcry for Onions but not RE? Why ban Onion export - to support domestic demand? isn't that protectionism? Why cry when US puts measures to support their domestic market?

Shameless India.

Anonymous said...

Onion is a perishable item. Keeping it in a godown for 1-2 weeks is not hoarding. DikShit is trying to gain cheap publicity. It is surprising that the govt going after some petty traders and ignoring billion dollar scams.

Anonymous said...

i think you guys deserve the high screwing you are getting. Lets see,your actors are making millions, your cricket players are making millions and your Ceo's are making million and you all worship these bastards. These bastards go buy flats/ land at any price and now you are crying. Billion population with less than 1% making all the cash.

Only way to correct this problem will be Dollar to hit 20. All them NRI bastards depositing in the Indian banks will stop. All those NRI bastards, including me, will stop buying lands and aparments back home. GLTA.

Anonymous said...

Why are onion prices so high? | PM steps in

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/onion-tears-for-government-prime-minister-steps-in-74053

I pinched myself twice just to check that I'm not delusional!!

Are onions so important ??

DhImAn said...

Batman: "Why not raid the RE hoarders? Why outcry for Onions but not RE?"

Exactly right. Inflation is inflation, but see what happens when it hits the poor man. Food becomes unaffordable and heads roll. Or prime ministers start losing control of bodily functions at the prospect.

As always, monetary inflation hits the poor hardest, but last. That is, inflating RE prices don't affect those who can't afford them, and besides, you can sleep on a pavement anyway. But not eat?

As we (meaning you, I, Samix and others on this blog) have said, printing ever increasing quantities of money will eventually lead to inflation in the price of necessities; at which point the proverbial sh*t will hit the fan.

I don't know if onions at Rs 100/kg and garlic at Rs 250/kg is the trigger, or the trigger point is higher, but you can be sure that there is a trigger point after which systemic failure will follow.

And if you are unprepared for that eventuality you will suffer. Maybe because your bhojan won't taste as good - or maybe worse. But suffer you will.

Anonymous said...

Being suddha sakahari do not worry about onion and garlic. But it does matter for (un)realestate as I am not able to afford one.

Anonymous said...

Do you mean affording a second one???

Desi Batman said...

Most of people are stuck on talking and thinking about not able to afford RE. I would say think about how to afford one! What do you do to afford one, How to increase your income to afford one.

Do what you have to do instead of asking for government intervention at every juncture. Learn to fight your way out. Play game against game.

As they say 'Where there is a will, there is a way'.

Enjoy.

Anonymous said...

Emerging market bond funds 'bubble about to burst'

December 20th, 2010

Financial advisers fear a crash could come soon as income-seeking investors flood into emerging market bond funds, despite warnings from the Bank of England that this may be a bubble about burst. Unit trusts investing in Brazil, Russia, India and China, sometimes called the BRIC countries, and other high growth economies are attracting record inflows, according to the Investment Management Association.

Emerging market bond funds – investing in IOUs issued by BRIC governments and large companies – offer higher yields than equity or share-based emerging market funds. While Bank of England base rate remain frozen at 0.5 per cent and the yield on the FTSE 100 index of Britain’s biggest companies shares hovers around 3 per cent, some emerging market bond funds yield 6 per cent.

“Emerging markets debt has had a chequered past, lurching from one to crisis to the next during the 1980s and 1990s – including the Asian crisis and Russia’s default of 1998

Anonymous said...

From the US: They are throwing money all overt the world except USA.


After years of stonewalling by the Fed, the American people are finally learning the incredible and jaw-dropping details of the Fed’s multi-trillion-dollar bailout of Wall Street and corporate America….

What have we learned so far from the disclosure of more than 21,000 transactions? We have learned that the $700 billion Wall Street bailout signed into law by President George W. Bush turned out to be pocket change compared to the trillions and trillions of dollars in near-zero interest loans and other financial arrangements the Federal Reserve doled out to every major financial institution in this country. Among those are Goldman Sachs, which received nearly $600 billion; Morgan Stanley, which received nearly $2 trillion; Citigroup, which received $1.8 trillion; Bear Stearns, which received nearly $1 trillion, and Merrill Lynch, which received some $1.5 trillion in short term loans from the Fed.

We also learned that the Fed’s multi-trillion bailout was not limited to Wall Street and big banks, but that some of the largest corporations in this country also received a very substantial bailout. Among those are General Electric, McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Harley Davidson, Toyota and Verizon.

Perhaps most surprising is the huge sum that went to bail out foreign private banks and corporations including two European megabanks – Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse – which were the largest beneficiaries of the Fed’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities.

Anonymous said...

12 Trillion USD thrown at these corporations who failed the whole world. If these crony capitalists knew what they were doing, the world would not be as bad. At least US would be doing good.

I wonder why would McDonald need a bailout? And GE that sold the USA out of its riches for the past 20 years by outsourcing and offshoring most of their products under Jack Welch? Why does Harley need bailout when they are setting up a plant in India.

Anonymous said...

And Citi and JP Morgan took in trillions. My god, aren't their employees ashamed to take millions in bonuses for their failures.

samix said...

Anon above not when one house in Mumabai costs a bomb.... just kiding!

shailesh said...

MUMBAI: Owing to fewer launches of projects and the period of 'Shraadh', sales registrations of property in Mumbai witnessed a sharp decline in the month of November, which is the lowest since March 2009, a survey report said.

According to the survey report by Prabhudas Lilladher, Mumbai's real estate sector witnessed a steep decline in the overall registration of properties in November to 14,680 units.

The registrations, in terms of volumes, had reached a peak of 20,735 in April 2010.

Mumbai property sales registrations fall in Nov, says survey

Anonymous said...

Due to harsh winter, RE market is singing a new Christmas jingle,

Thanda Hai Per Dhandha Hai Ye !!!!

Anonymous said...

But prices are'nt coming down. Its just frustrating. MUMBAI SUCKS!

Anonymous said...

onions cost 100, garlic cost 200, pretty soon chicken will cost 1000. It used to be when you order a Chicken curry, you get onion and garlic with 1 piece of chicken. Rather than a chicken curry, it used to be a onion and garlic curry. you have to find the chicken in the chicken curry. I am assuming next time i will just get water and 1 piece of chicken with the garlic and onion missing.

Anonymous said...

only way you can get a real chicken curry now is to order a elephant curry or a hippo curry. Then they will bring a chicken curry. They will tell you that it is a elephant curry but it actually a chicken. It is like people buying in Bombay a flat that is worth 10 lakhs for 1 crore. In order to get a 10 lakh house, you have to order a 1 crore house. It might not have electricity, water or no roads, but your wife can tell everybody that she lives in a 1 crore house.

Anonymous said...

You know there is a recurring theme to Congress Raj. Used to be similar sounding complaints in earlier congress raj's also... People were pissed off with Congress and then BJP came in to do the India Shining bit and for some reason did not get elected in the next election.

Looking at Nitin Gadkari, I would be scared to vote for BJP as well...but god knows where we are headed as a country. One thing is sure, we cannot continue the way we are going. A scam of lacs of crores a day. Something has got to give.

Desi Batman said...

anon @8:16 PM

"Something has got to give."


Exactly! But that's not going to happen. Value of INR is being held up because of black money. If you have noticied there is increase in flow and demand for black money... why? because if black money is accounted in books, there will be major inflation because of increase in supply (this time on books) of INR. Major players in markets will NEVER allow this to happen and that is only way to control unfathomable inflation.

So I think demand for black money HAS to increase... increase till there is no demand for white money. Then there will be chaos. This will take many years but looks like we will reach that threshold very soon.

Desi Batman said...

Such a high increase in RE prices in Mumbai will lead to high cost of operations and product made in Mumbai. One may not see that now, but will be evident in next 5 years or so.

So gear up Mumbaities for rough ride in coming years. If you think this is not going to happen, may be someone needs you to wake up.

shailesh said...

Realty prices set for steady dip in Mumbai

Home loan majors like Housing Development and Finance Corporation (HDFC) and the State Bank of India (SBI) have seen a drop in mortgage loan transactions. HDFC has seen a drop of 15-20% in the island city, while SBI has effected a downward revision in its growth target for this fiscal from Rs22,000 crore earlier.

A senior banker from the largest private lending institution says, “Developers cannot hold on to prices anymore. The banks will insist on repayment of loans and nobody will go for rollovers because of what has happened recently (the LIC housing scam and fall in home loan numbers in Mumbai). The Reserve Bank of India is watching the banks very tightly.”

“So, if the developer has to repay, he has to go to the private equity to get money at much higher rates, or alternatively reduce the price. We will see the impact in April of prices going down. Even for the banks, 91 days is considered to be default; so in the event of any default happening this month or in the next month —- because on March 31 they will cross over —- the pressure will be very high on developers. Prices will have to go down,” he added.

Anonymous said...

I have been watching this blog for more than a year. Nowadays, every two weeks or so, there is a new post, which is just a rotten link to a news-story, with some extract from it. Then, a bunch of suckers jump in and comment on the same bunch of crapshoot. black money, politicians, 1 crore houses, ghatkopar and more black money.

Then, when the number of comments hits about 60 or so, there is a new post. another rotten link. another bunch of suckers jumping in.

And, the number of ads by google has gone up all around the page, left, right, top, bottom. Vik must be raking in the money.

At least someone is making money off of you suckers. haha.

shailesh said...

Anon 7:30am

Seems like you work for builders, as clearly you are trying to minimize the power of people to communicate. I guess you probably have lot of free time on your hand as noted above the dhanda thoda thunda hein !!!

The reason there is not much to write is the game of RE is up. There is no argument left about whether there is bubble or not. That has been proven. RE in cities like mumbai are in big Hawa Mahal. The crash is imminent. The question is who will break the news with proof. Basically some will go belly up, and things will unravel.

shailesh said...

Investing or speculating?

There are signs of another bubble brewing in Indian real estate, especially in cities like Mumbai, where prices in upmarket areas have touched Rs. 1 lakh a square foot! Even remote suburbs are commanding prices in excess of Rs. 1 crore for a 2BHK. Although people feel that the price may be stretched, based on reasonable estimation of intrinsic value of the property and their own ability to repay the loan, they still go ahead and make the purchase, believing that they can make a cool profit when the price increases further two years from now. A new crop of buyers have emerged who barely have money for advance deposit and count on flipping the property on delivery as an exit strategy. This is called the “bigger fool” game of speculation, which basically refers to purchasing an asset at an unjustified price today for the only reason that it will become even more unjustifiable going forward. The problem with such momentum plays is that you can never be sure if there will be a bigger fool waiting to buy from you, or if you are the biggest fool.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:30am

THANK YOU!!!!

Why? For reading every bit of blogs and comments. Not many do that, but you did and I highly appreciate that.

Also, please post on the topics of discussion instead on bloggers. Atleast we will hear some of your intelligence and analysis.

BTW, Your comments had no meaning and no content other than negative adjectives.

I am sure you will read this message too and respond using your foul-mouthed donkey brain.

Anonymous said...

let's compare timesofindia and this blog:

timesofindia: very aggressive ads and poor journalism

this blog: simple google ads and much more informative content.


I'd rather have this blog make money instead of timesofindia make money.


speaking of money...in ahmedabad, you can buy 50 to 100 Lac worth of fake currency for 10 Lac.

Anonymous said...

speaking of money...in ahmedabad, you can buy 50 to 100 Lac worth of fake currency for 10 Lac.

hi anon 1:44,

if above is true it is really shocking & scary.

samix said...

Then, when the number of comments hits about 60 or so, there is a new post.

Though I do not agree a tad bit with what you say.. I must admit I found this funny!

Desi Batman said...

If there is lot of fake currency in market than that means more black money in market. So value of black money is inflated and hence more is needed to buy same product.

Can anyone comment if RE builder / sellers are asking for more black money component?

Also this means that economic controls that any GOI puts in has no connection to main street economy.

Desi Batman said...

MUMBAI REAL ESTATE: Investors Selling Flats At Discounts

Hope this is message for count down towards March/April. May be after all Bindaas Bhai would be proved to true to his analysis.

Happy New Year or will it be really Happy (?)

Anonymous said...

This market is not for those who wanted to invest in 2nd or 3rd investment. Not fir speculators. Enjoy until it becomes more affordable.

Raj said...

Here is an Oped article in WSJ about Chinese real estate bubble.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204527804576043580256245602.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0

A call for people in this board:

Based on your analysis, do you have a list of stocks to short in the real estate and financial institutions space? If you don't mind, can you please share them here.

Bechara Indian said...

I am reading this blog for more than a year and believe me the prices have gone by 10% every time article like this come. Also logically if real estate correct even lest assume that 15%, then all the banks will be in problem because of negative equity that will force the borrower to forfeit their property and more supply then more correction so this will be the recipe for disaster for congress party which wants to make more bucks in short period as they know they are not going to be elected next time. Also this will have overall impact on construction, banks, IT etc etc which will have GDP contraction and that’s the last thins Santa Manhoan would wish, so be cool and relax no correction

Anonymous said...

short all real estate stocks...starting with the high flyers - India Bulls, Unitech, DLF..

But remember at the same time - the market can remain high more than you might be able to remain solvent.

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Anonymous said...

Dsokhar Tsarnave- great name,for that Terrorist but i am afraid, that this pressure cooker is about to take off big time in India. You could see 100's of pressure cooker guys popping up in India now. What happens to the stock market if you have pressure cooker's exploding in Bangalore, Delhi, Mumbai at the same time????? Can real estate prices hold if you have 1-2 pressure cooker exploding every month????

NRI's will put tail between their legs and run, after getting rid of their properties.

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