Saturday, April 09, 2011

China - the Paper Dragon - Ghost cities

China's ghost malls, cities and office space - nearly 30 billion sq ft constructed mostly vacant.

This is a bubble worst than India's (At least India can manage to run some demand and lets common people use up space by renting for offices, shops, etc)
A must watch - in 4 to 12 months China is going to be Dubai x 1000










http://corporaterealestategroup.com/2011/03/11/china-housing-market-bubble-bust-dubai-x1000/

Updates -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html




Moodys downgrades Chinese RE
http://blogs.forbes.com/benzingainsights/2011/04/14/trading-moodys-downgrade-of-the-chinese-property-sector/

84 comments:

Anonymous said...

If the jan lok pal bill gets passed, all hell will break loose in the real estate market since most ill gotten wealth is stashed in land and apartments.

I doubt if vested interests will let the bill pass, but expect a HUGE correction in real estate in 6 months if it is passed. Maximum penalty for corruption is life in prison!

Anonymous said...

I am surprise to see china video. I always think china like dharavi but most china look liek malabar hill or khar bandra.

First thing our government do must be to build sandas everywhere. Now it is very bad smell, and rainy season fifficult to walk as people make kakka everywhere

==> said...

If the jan lok pal bill gets passed, all hell will break loose in the real estate market since most ill gotten wealth is stashed in land and apartments.

==> How do you prove corruption unless it is caught in action or on paper. Even today it is almost impossible to catch it on paper.

I doubt if vested interests will let the bill pass, but expect a HUGE correction in real estate in 6 months if it is passed. Maximum penalty for corruption is life in prison!

==> In RE transactions corrupt are both buyer and seller, so who will report these bad practices?

==> said...

Are there any ghost cities in India? I doubt even if we have ghost buildings.

Anonymous said...

We have several ghost buildings. Look around yourself. I see many buildings with nobody staying but "all flats sold out" statements by builder. Perhaps they are just parking of money by corrupt people or fooling by builder.

Kanjani said...

HaHaHa
People making kakka everywhere!!!!
Crude comment but how real !!

what is the point in beautifying the city when the muncipality can not address a basic problem. It is a shame. Everyone knows it but no one is willing to talk about it.
Now about ghost buildings!!! Can the anonymous gentleman please provide a single address of a building

As far as I am aware, there are no ghost building. maybe the there are few apartments locked or unoccupied, but this sort of things are there in all cities.


Chinese govt may be having a plan to relocate people in so called ghost cities. Like rest of their policies, they may not be publishing it just like western countries do.

The common people in china are atleast 5 times better of, in terms of standard of living. So, let us not worry about china.Instead let us support people like Hazare

Anonymous said...

From Australia and the same goes for India:

Prime Minister Rudd brags about Australia's ability to duck the recession. It did not work. All Rudd did was delay the inevitable, fueling an even bigger housing bubble. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash, and rest assured Australia is headed for a housing crash.

MMS Govt. did similat things in India by providing huge stimulus.

Anonymous said...

There is no credit bubble in India. Yes, India has corruption and lack of laws that protect interest of countrymen.

What makes any Indian to sell flats for less that this bubble burst?

RE is all about jobs, location, climate, culture. Therefore comparing one county to another is ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:
When it happens in India, you'll see for yourself how much credit bubble India had. Not only to end buyers, but to major builders and corporations. How do you know there was credit not overextended?

Have you ever realised from where did all this money came from in India, be it black or white? All investors become sellers when they realise that the market is headed dowwards. Inventory increases drastically and it starts bringing prices down as there would be very less buyers.

No country has sellers that would reduce the prices. No one wants to take a loss. India is no different. 60% drop is for sure.

Anonymous said...

An effective implementation of "Moneylaundering watchdog to track all Realty deals" should help. Wishful thinking but we always live on hopes - don't we!

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/moneylaundering-watchdog-to-track-all-realty-deals/articleshow/7940182.cms

- MB

Anonymous said...

Lots of ghost buildings in Delhi's Dwarka and Gurgaon's Sohna road exist.

At night (8.00 PM), every building has 4 lighted windows and 100 dark ones - the dark ones are kept empty by owner, as he waits for price to appreciate.

Must be lonely for the few who inhabit these vacant buildings - but what to do when you have taken big loan and to live in what you bought?

Buy now and sell after 20 years is the modus operandi of these investors - while they wait, they keep it vacant - who wants to show regular rental income in tax?

These people have (black) money and they NEVER NEVER sell unless at 1000% profit - coverting black to white in the process.

Maybe 80% of NCR flats are owned by these people - those hoping for prices to fall are the biggest fools in the world - black guys have cornered all flats and needy people have to pay through their nose if they want one for themselves.

Without crores, they will neither get to buy a flat, nor will they even get to rent it - black guys dont want to rent out.

Anonymous said...

any RE agent colleags from Mumbai here? i am in bengaluru.

after Anna agitation finish, I received 8 call in 3 day from owner
wanting to sale flats. all high guvermant officals.

same thing going on in mumbai?

prasad

==> said...

@Prasad
You must be kidding. Are these rats so scared of Anna Hazare that they want to sell flats?

There are 1.2 billion people in India and how many truly joined Anna Hazare and meant the change to be implemented?

Anonymous said...

There is a ground swell in support for Anna Hazare. This may translate or transform into less corrupt society. Every common may is yearning for this change, this might be scaring bhooka babus who has insatiable appetite for black money. They all will be busted one day. Their days are numbered unless they sell and make good their illegally bought properties. mumbai might be safe if Congress is initiating the changes, Bengaluru babus under BJP might be targetted being in opposition (Congress equation Rs. 5 Lakhs of bribery is more than equal to 5Lakh Crores under Congress and this is scary).

Anonymous said...

Correction:

Congress equation Rs. 5 Lakhs of bribery under BJP is more than equal to 5 Lakh Crores under Congress and this is scary. Chanakya once said corruption at best be managed or contained but cannot be eliminated.

Raj said...

This is how bubble is formed. I am from Mumbai . One of my relative has bought house in under construction building 4 years back @3500 sq. Ft. When I inquired about rate with her ,she told me it is @7000 and builder told me it will go further up. It was 4-5 months back. Now today she told me builder is asking for @11000. It was @10000 last month. Though building does not have occupation certificate etc. I was amazed to see how ROI is such high . Btw when I asked how many flats he has sold . The answer was none.
This is market where. Everybody is happy with paper money. Same builder is coming up with new building and he has already received 1000 applications for some odd 100 flats as per him. This is just way of creating panic and minting money business.

shailesh said...

Not sure if this was posted.

India's real estate sector: A bubble in making?

Anonymous said...

good post shailesh. thanks for sharing.

I think it was not very balanced though because all three were optimists on RE and no one believed there is a bubble.

Anonymous said...

Good link Shailesh. But one is a builder and the other sells properties thru his website. So definately they will defend their industry. I think the denial is motivated and planned and price reductions are not happening. However, across the table folks are willing to negotiate....but remember a 5% drop is a drop in the ocean to a 40% run up in the past one and half year.

==> said...

bhai log. I don't think there will any drop in price. At same time I feel there won't be anymore run up in prices because buyers cannot afford any more markups.

BUT, people who bought few years ago at 1/4 price and have no mortgages are not in any hurry to sell at lesser price.

So we will be in stagnation. Prices in crores are here to stay. Only way to afford is to ask for more salary / more earnings which will drive up cost of living further.

Anonymous said...

Only way to afford is to ask for more salary / more earnings which will drive up cost of living further.

Yeah right, good luck with that one...

==> said...

Yeah right, good luck with that one...

==> thank you. I do see people's salary / income on rise. People (10% population) have same amount or more wealth than same number of people in USA - then why can't India has same or more price for RE or earnings?
Please I am not talking about bottom 90% - they don't matter as they are happy living doing 'sahebji' for top 10%.

Frustrated said...

I concur with ==. I don't think the prices in Mumbai will decline as predicted by many of the bloggers unless something drastic like a non corrupt government taking over the country.

I was in the buyers market for the last 5 years and regret for not going for good offers with the hope for a better price that has illuded me in all cases. With all hopes dashed, I reluctantly bought a home in Pune outskirts fearing that too would turn out to be a dream.

All the forecasts and theories sound good, but then these are all based on developed economies and may not stand true here where the underground economy is more powerful. People have more spending money in Mumbai than anywhere else. Just read a news item that escorts in Mumbai charge anywhere between 50000-5 lakhs an outing and there is no dearth of customers. % Laks a night!!!!!! This is my annual salary before taxes

May God save India

Anonymous said...

=>Said:

You are the biggest fool I've seen on this blog. Why do you make statements when you do not understand economics and the bigger picture.

Anonymous said...

@Frustrated

You did the right thing. I am in a similar type of situation that you were in. In my case, I kept postponing home purchase while the prices quadrapuled. Even Pune suburbs have become too expensive.
As for wealth, rich people were always there and the same lot have become richer. Money makes money.

Anonymous said...

2Anonymous 7:04,

Dear economist, please enlighten us with the bigger picture that you see and we don't

Thanks

==> said...

You are the biggest fool I've seen on this blog. Why do you make statements when you do not understand economics and the bigger picture.

==> Please elaborate your big picture instead of being gibberish.

Also before you start typing think of how Indian businesses operate, culture, attitude towards being honest. Don't just put in some hypothetical, emotional, non-practical Indian scenarios.

Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting story:
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110413/jsp/frontpage/story_13847581.jsp

Let us say that Koda owns 300, 1 crore flats. And, after the new Lok Pal is formed, we find 1000 such people in India. We are talking about 300,000 1 crore flats or more all over India, hitting the market in the next two years. I am assuming attached properties will be auctioned eventually.

I can already understand why prasad the real estate agent from Bangalore got inquiries from govt. officials to sell flats. If lok pal goes through, shit will hit the fan in the resale market.

SR said...

Check this out..Nice theory but just wont happen. Not because it shouldn't but because it wont be allowed to, by many vested interests.

Stats from developed countries are useless in India

http://moneylife.in/article/planning-to-invest-in-real-estate-think-again/15407.html

shayna said...

@Frustrated,

The money spent on the escorts are obviously from the BLACK economy. The escorts too invest this money into property, if you live in VERSOVA don't be surprised to find your neighbour is a dance bar worker.

Anyways the source of all this money is GOI, printed by RBI. The GOI spends on Infrastructure and welfare projects to improve the economy, it borrows the money from RBI and expects to generate revenue via taxes. When out of every Rs100 approx Rs60 id lost to the BLACK economy the GOI will be bankrupt and RBI fighhting Inflation.

To curb this all these properties have to be accounted and taxes paid on basis of their notional value. So one of 2 things happen, the notional value and real transaction value gets even i.e Notional value comes down or Real value goes up. If real value goes up, this will feed further into the Inflation hence the former and all the silly numbers out of thin air will disappear.

Mumbai's present economy is based on migrants involved heavily in the BLACK economy, this will have to change and Mumbai and INDIA has to produce something of value to survive.

==> said...

The money spent on the escorts are obviously from the BLACK economy. The escorts too invest this money into property, if you live in VERSOVA don't be surprised to find your neighbour is a dance bar worker.

==> Black money is spent on 90% of all day to day transaction like spending on cab or auto, buying bread to medicine. How many report as that as taxable earnings? I assume less than 10%.

Also what is wrong on having dance bar worker as long as they maintain dignity at their residence. Why no is offended when a corrupt, rich, unworthy pan spitting person stays as their neighbour?

==> said...

Anyways the source of all this money is GOI, printed by RBI. The GOI spends on Infrastructure and welfare projects to improve the economy, it borrows the money from RBI and expects to generate revenue via taxes. When out of every Rs100 approx Rs60 id lost to the BLACK economy the GOI will be bankrupt and RBI fighhting Inflation.

==> You got it partially correct. It is not only GOI printed, but also FDI and FII and most importantly FAKE currency. What does it matter to inflation as long as people are ready to live a shoddy shabby compromisible lifestyle. GOI numbers are unverifiable as their is absolutely no transperancy in system. You have to take everything on their published numbers. Black economy is backbone of Indian economy and is to stay forever. So even if GOI goes bankrupt who cares.

==> said...

To curb this all these properties have to be accounted and taxes paid on basis of their notional value. So one of 2 things happen, the notional value and real transaction value gets even i.e Notional value comes down or Real value goes up. If real value goes up, this will feed further into the Inflation hence the former and all the silly numbers out of thin air will disappear.

==> Agree.

Mumbai's present economy is based on migrants involved heavily in the BLACK economy, this will have to change and Mumbai and INDIA has to produce something of value to survive.

==> So correct. But as long as there are outsourced westerners job, I don't see India in any need for producing anything of value.

Anonymous said...

@Said: You said: Black economy is backbone of Indian economy and is to stay forever. So even if GOI goes bankrupt who cares.


You are putting your views here as if you are a priveleged, most educated person here and telling everyone what is right.

If GOI goes bankrupt, there would be no money coming from outside to India. If India defaults, there would be no salaries for Govt. employees as 50% of the salary amount is borrowed money. Look at Spain and Greece. These countries are also corrupt and have cash economies. If GOI goes bankrupt, India will go back 20 years in growth. Rupee will be more than 200/USD. US will still try to bail out India to prevent its interests.

Anonymous said...

@above:
The banking system will also fail if Govt. goes bankrupt. Right now deposits are safe/insured only for Rs.1 lac per account in any bank in India. And when masses will lose their bank deposits, there would be a civil unrest.

=>Said: You need to grow up.

shailesh said...

A home in Dubai cheaper than in Mumbai

Compared to Mumbai and Delhi, Dubai real estate now is 30-50% cheaper. According to research by real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield, capital values in Cuffe Parade in Mumbai is around Rs 40,000-60,000 per sq ft, whereas capital values in Palm Jumeirah is just Rs 15,000 per sq ft.

Pre-recession, real estate prices in Dubai were steep, making it unaffordable. "The markets were speculative then. They are more mature now," says Richard Stokes, sales manager at Smith & Ken Real Estate. His firm has sold 250-300 properties in the last year and Indians have bought 30% of those. Analysts say the supply glut in the market is shadowing realty recovery in the region. "Dubai is likely to see in excess of 45,000 residential units being added over the next 24 months," says Dutt. In contrast, Mumbai's real estate market has seen a sharp escalation after the lull in 2009. Property prices have risen by 40-50%. But this is now adding to the negative sentiment.

"Mumbai real estate market is overheated. The buying has slowed down," said Kaustuv Roy, executive director of Cushman & Wakefield India. But it would still take a long time for Dubai realty prices to come anywhere close to Mumbai's.

Anonymous said...

http://en.21cbh.com/HTML/2011-4-12/4NMjM0XzIwOTg4Ng.html

Anonymous said...

To all:

Bhai Logo:

Why are you people quoting multi million dollar property, Dubai Jumaira, Greece, UK, USA, Spain et etc. Chor log publish forecasts/reports to suit their needs. Why rely on such reports. We should be concentrating on subjects that matter to us most.

I really miss articles from Bindaas bhai, Sabalseshu etc who is to comment on indian real estate.

For Bhagwans sake, be realistic and avoid writing foreign bullshit

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

Most of whatever is happening in India is due to Globalization. You cannot think of India alone in terms of growth or RE prices etc. Everyhing in India is now interconnected with the World markets. If RE bubbles were made in US and other countries like Australia, China, Korea, Spain etc., RE burst will also happen in all these countreis. US is lucky to have its burst and it will follow in other countries. ALl shailesh is pointing out is same was happening in Dubai and is bursting now.

Get your head out of your arse and see globally. Don't be too optimistic on the fake growth story in India.

Even USA is awakening to the fact that they have to reduce their debt and borrow less. India's debt to GDP ratio in 92%, a lot higher than US and the people in power will soon realize how important it is to curtail debt. Otherwise no more money would be given to India to even pay salaries of GOI or any infrastructure projects. That's when the growth slumps.

Anonymous said...

To Above Bhai.

Come out of delusions. All this globalisation talk has mesmerised you. Show me the connection between Indian real estate and the western economy.

Black moneywalas are creating halla balla here and you are trying to interconnect this marwari , banias with the west.

Bhai, no western country is creating problem for us by buying 1, 2 crore flats. It is our own people. How many ghoras have settled in India. Other than hippies, none.

Be practical and think in local terms. If the propaganda has mad your . sir gharam (hot head), go to juhu beech, drink a beer or neera, eat bhelpuri and you will be all right

true Indian

Anonymous said...

to Bhai- continued

Why would ManMohan Singh fake India growth . Look at cell phones. Even rag picker has mobile. We are growing but some baniyas indulged in black market creating artificial price rise. Dont worry, The government will sole this problem shortly.

Another thing, there is no need to use words like 'arse'. This shows your culture.

Remember, whatever is destined to happen will happen. This real estate price is due to performing too much Laxmi Pooja by banias and marwaris. We also can counter this by praying peacefully to our god, may it be lord shiva or vishnu. Eveything can be countered.

True Indian

Anonymous said...

@above
If you are so confident, why don't you buy some more flats and be happy. Why do you visit a blog that says RE bubble.

Do you know from where the money in India is coming from be it black or white? How did so much liquidity come to the market suddenly in th epast 4-5 years? And that liquidity converted to black and white. But what is the dource of that money?

Ask MMS and you will get your answers.

Anonymous said...

Indian buyers can also try something like what Australian buyers are doing. They have formed groups of buyers who will not buy until prices fall by 50% or so. Their bubble seems to be bursting. $700K houses selling in auction for $500K.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=8179.6823.0.0

Realtors and many bloggers on this blog are paid people who tout for RE. Realtors are liars. Do no believe them. They are selling RE because they couldn't do anything in life and try to show their wit.

Also, do not carried away by the black money thing. Still 80-90% people depend on loans from banks. ALl the stolen money will get evaporated the way it was stolen by esteemed people in power or by business people by not paying proper taxes and stealing from the Govt.

Anonymous said...

I was in Dubai 10- days ago, and my honest advice for anyone who is settled down in Mumbai, is to sell their flats and move to Dubai. Much better housing, good breeze from the Gulf (sea); good climate, noody making kakka/susu on the road, no pan spitting clowns. The place is neat and clean and you will get the same lifestyle in a bigger apartment. Go to India on holidays. P.S. Sell Mumbai now, dont think like camels.....be smart and get your bottoms out of Mumbai before the shit hits the fan,,I have already left (not for Dubai though..)

cHitChOr said...

Here is an age old saying and it is true when doing technical analysis on stocks and can apply to anything (including real estate). If the slope of the rise is greater than 45% then you have a problem and the market/company will crash real hard. So based on the rise that you had in RE in India over the past several years, the slope is definitely over 40; so here comes the crash....

Anonymous said...

Also follow Newtons second law: Every action has an equal and opposite reaction" So rise is accompanied by fall; and the only marginal rise will be the excess percentage of money that GOI prints (i.e. inflation). So if Inflation is 10% year over year then RE should not be more than 10% y-o-y growth, no matter how many marwaris are there to pay in Black..

Anonymous said...

Anyone commenting specially about need to know it is a typical ME authoritarian country with no powers to outsiders. Giving idli free and charging exorbitant for sambhar and chutney does not make sense. Remember "Janani janmaboomischa swargadapi gariyasi". Who will improve if we have such negative approach, dawood like thugs have used gold smuggling to hilt and gave Dubai its cash and now the money laundering by greedy politicians, smugglers, industrialist. We need to associate with people like Anna Hazare to cleanse the system from inside.

Citizen said...

Dawood Ibrahim, Rajan and other sundry pujari, shetty gangsters are all thriving under the patronage of Pawar family, Chaggan Bujbal family, Chavan family etc etc. These political families shield gangsters, use them, make money out of them, shield them. To summarise, they collect hafta like the police, even from all powerful people like Tata, Godrej, Ambani. The whole setup is like MAFIA, Indian Style. Even the top brass in new Delhi are part of this nexus. Sonia Gandhi because of heer connections abroad, shields these crooks from foreign powers and mightt be charging a premium for protection.

Why blame Marwaris, Banias and Black Marketeers when they are all employees of a bigger syndicate.

Recent incidences indicate that Pawar, Goenka, DB reality and some south indian niggers like Raja, Karunanidi, yeduveerappa have fallen fallen out of favor, and likely to get screwed along with their families unless they change their tactics

We all know this but can't do anything. The problem is majority of the population is sheep, that includes me .

Anonymous said...

India BEWARE of Goldman:::

India is already a very poor and extremely stratified country financially. I don’t see this ending well. For India anyway. The vampire squid is fantastically efficient at extracting wealth from a population, as we’ve seen in the US. If there is wealth to be extracted in India, they’re the company to do it. With India’s existing pervasive corruption, this will probably bode well for GS and its share price. GS can be seen as a global East India Tea Company.

Goldman Advance in India Means Turning Half-Cent Fees to Profit
April 12, 2011, 6:36 PM EDT

By George Smith Alexander and Ruth David

April 13 (Bloomberg) — For Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which is ramping up efforts to arrange takeovers and stock sales in India, progress can be slow and profit from deals elusive.

The New York-based company that dominated global merger advisers for most of the past decade spent three years working on the transaction that vaulted it to second from ninth place in India. Its first share sale in India this year may be a $1.3 billion offer from state-owned Power Finance Corp., for which it will split a fee of 1 rupee (2 cents) with three other banks.

[...]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-12/goldman-advance-in-india-means-turning-half-cent-fees-to-profit.html

shayna said...

@Citizen,

What do you have to say to the fact that growth in India is because of these nigger states of TN, Karnataka, Kerala & AP alongwith Maha and Guj.

For heavens sake stop exhbiting your primitive, illiterate mindset and try to sound a bit more civilised whilst referring to south indians.

With ref to my prv post where i mentioned that the notional value will become the real value. Last night i was at a friends place, he has returned from DXB and now is settled in BOM. I am trying to do the same, from LONDON to BOM.

He was telling me that in KERALA, the CM-Achutanandan- has valued all the land as per the notional value and demanded land registry to take these figures as the base. The result has been a near complete stop of land transaction. Lets see what happens post elections in KERALA.

shailesh said...

Now if you want to read paid news, here it is. How come journalist write an article only with one view and that too of Industry spokesman... Can't he find out what is cost of construction and publish it? Why should cost of construction be Rs 1500 per sq ft, but builder wants to make Rs 20,000 per sq ft????

Real estate prices likely to remain stable in Mumbai

"The real estate prices may remain stable as the new supply is not going to come in the market and construction costs have gone up substantially," Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry (MCHI) President Sunil Mantri told reporters on the sidelines of a property exhibition here.

The cost of construction has shot up by 30 per cent in the last one year alone. Hikes in bank interest rates have also slowed down the property buying process, he said.

The project approval process has slowed down drastically therefore the new supply is unlikely to come in the market, Mantri said.

shailesh said...

Avoid realty stocks even if they look good

Finally, numbers mean nothing in an industry that works on obfuscation and is the final resting place for slush money, owing to lack of proper regulation and opaque dealings. Our take: stay away from these stocks even if you spot possibilities of a rally.

Rising interest rates will affect sales in residential and commercial projects, which would eventually impact developers having high debt. Moreover, investigation into the 2G case is not yet over and the fact that some companies chargesheeted have links to the real estate sector may not bode well if the tables turn against them. At this point, therefore, it is better to avoid the sector.

Anonymous said...

@Shailesh,

All said and done, the underlying cause for high realty prices are unlikely to change in the short term. All the investigations taking place on scams, corruption etc etc are a mere eyewash. Top to bottom, the people are corrupt and all the natak taking place could also be a scam.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:
Indian RE has not gone up due to black money. More black money is the creation from high RE prices.

Why would RE go high in 20 other countries at the same time. One has to understand the international forces and easy money coming to India from central banks of many countries and India itself is printing massively. That money then becomes black or white.

RE will fall by 60%. Just wait and watch. Maybe 6 months to a year.

==> said...

Indian RE has not gone up due to black money. More black money is the creation from high RE prices.

==> Incorrect. Do you even know that EVERY RE transaction requires atleast 30% to 40% black component else RE prices go higher to recover lost revenue in taxes. Also many many people need to park this black money and need to have complete control over their earnings. Nothing is safe bet as RE.

Why would RE go high in 20 other countries at the same time. One has to understand the international forces and easy money coming to India from central banks of many countries and India itself is printing massively. That money then becomes black or white.

==> Correct. Money in India is because of international funds and black component and rise of RE is even higher than man intl countries.

RE will fall by 60%. Just wait and watch. Maybe 6 months to a year.

==> I hope too. Hope is good thing.

Anonymous said...

@Anon 12:10

That is the beauty of democratic nation, transparency is the key. We really do not know what transpire in authoritarian/totalitarian/dictatorial type of govt. We do not care, to get to bottom of it we need info.

Anonymous said...

Going back to original post. Why only talk about ghost buildings, there were several ghost lands too, why don't we talk about them.

Answer is Perception.

==> said...

if (ha ha) RE is unaffordable and prices don't come down in metro cities, what happens next? New generation is screwed and will be forced to move to ghost cities I guess, what are other alternatives?

Anonymous said...

Krishna Kumar | Mumbai, April 16, 2011 | Updated 11:05 IST

RTI activist names Pawar and kin in land scam

They purportedly revealed the involvement of the then Maharashtra government, led by Pawar, in handing over land belonging to the armed forces to a 'shady' trust.

The latter, in turn, allegedly gave a part of it to Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and DB Realty - the real estate company which owns 2G spectrum scam beneficiary Swan Telecom.

Anonymous said...

Definitely related to housing and overcrowding
http://timesofindia.hotklix.com/content/News/India/Pani-puri-vendor-caught-urinating-in-vessel

Poor guy was probably trying to save on salt!!

Now you guys compare this with greece, thailand, germany, USA, Canada, Ireland and declare that this is not unique to India as we are part of global village

Anonymous said...

The lone bihari bhayya does not represent the wider indian society. If at all this is true, then the government should take the blame. Why cant they provide toilets in public areas, why aren't any public tap water there in congested areas.

If you see in any upcoming construction sites, there are no toilets. So people use any available space for waste discharge. Why aren't the builders providing good amenities

==> said...

Pani puri bhaiya relieving is nothing new, just that now technology is available and used by common man to expose lots of things.

Did you know this bhaiya was fined Rs 1200 and given warning.. that's all. But root cause was not discussed and fixed. Many crorepatis in Mumbai still eat same pani puri with pride!

Yo bro! India shining at the brightest light or may be there is more shine to be revealed in coming days/years.

Kanjani said...

I agree with == . Places like Juhu Beach, Chowpaty, Marve where most bhel/Pani puri bhayyas conduct business, have no or few public toilets. Moreover, the vendors can not leave their stalls unattended during business hours . Now the question is, where do they relieve themselves. It must be one of the vessel used for making bhel/panipuri ingredients. They save on water and salt and maybe in some cases sugar in case they are diabetic.

Most of the bhel/pani puri Connoisseur happen to be people from gujarat and I believe urine is considered to have healing properties, Our ex PM morarji desai was a great fan of urine.

However, contrary to gujarati beliefs science has shown that lot of unwanted bacteria/virus can survive in urine, it is deemed unhygenic. Therefore, govt should curb this practice totally.

Levying a fine of rs.1200 has punished the person for public indecency but at the same time condoned the practice of using urine

India is in fact shining!!!!!

Gujarati said...

@Kanjani,
We eat from road side stalls, so do others. This isolated incidence of this mentally sick bhayya doesn't speak for all the vendors. Do you thinks the restaurants are any better , even with star ratings. If one wants to live in Mumbai, he has to shut eyes to many such things.

==> said...

@Gujarati
We eat from road side stalls, so do others. This isolated incidence of this mentally sick bhayya doesn't speak for all the vendors. Do you thinks the restaurants are any better , even with star ratings. If one wants to live in Mumbai, he has to shut eyes to many such things.


==> Indian people are known to live very low quality life style and are ready to comprise and accept shit even when it's not required - I think it is just norm these days.

Hope people in India are still enjoying pani puris and/or something else. As it is said 'you can run, but you can't hide'.

I can't imagine what must be going through people who must have ate pani puri's at that vendor's stall before this was made public. Live in crores worth house and drink urine. I am sure those people must be still yelling - India is shining.

Cool Head said...

Again there is a news item in one of the Times Group papers that prices will fall soon. I wonder what this racket is, these papers publish some of these stories amdist other bullish ones of property being the best investment, should I buy property now, the property exhibition by MCHI was a huge success, etc. I gues they are hedging their bets so that no matter which way the market turns, they can always claim "WE told you so! Remember you read it here FIRST!"

Cool Head said...

Last week I was in Pune. There are a lot of old bungalows which are being torn down and small buildings consisting of say 2-3 floors being constructed with apartments. I was astounded to know that the rates in these buildings are similar as in Mumbai suburbs-something like 90 lakhs for a 3 BHK. Traditionally Pune salaries are something like 60% to 70% of Mumbai ones at best (I am not talking of IT/BPO but even there the salaries are lesser as compared to Mumbai), so obviously these are not being brought by salaried class. I wonder how this system functions.Perhaps only business people and corrupt politicians, etc may be buying these?

Punewala said...

In 1993 a friend of mine bought a row house (5 years old) for 32 lakhs from a NRI, at wanowrie- clover village. This year he is moving to Bangalore and therefore put his home on sale. I couldn't believe when he sold the place for 2.1 Crores I !!. The builtup area od the place , i guess is less than 2400 sq,ft, 3 b/r and terrace. I was thinking that he was the biggest fool in the world when he bought the place for 32 lakhs.

The prices have been increasing in Pune. Now, the prices are not quoted as per area. The agents quote a price based on locality and recent sales.

I live in kadaikosala and spend 3 hours in travel everyday. I own 18 acres of land which i bought for 5 lakhs in 1993 and currently it is valued at 9 lakhs . In fact I've lost money in maintaining the land where as my friend made a whopping profit.

My point is that, the price rise is only in certain areas . Most of the outskirts of cities are cheap. If any of you want to buy a place to live, not as investment, there are plenty available within your reach.

Dont despair. All is not lost. Let the black moneywalas live in the prenium properties eatinf urine/feces infected food. Move out, breathe clean air and be happy

Anonymous said...

US debt downgraded. Wait till India's is downgraded too as they have been borrowing a lot too.

Anonymous said...

Well said Mr. Punewala! Totally agree with you.

Anonymous said...

mr punewala,

your friend made 10.64% compunded. with inflation, taxes and other charges, i would say he made about 8%!!

He could have made more in Fixed Deposit!

Anonymous said...

Good suggestion, Punewala. The life in city outskirts is better than congested urban areas. If one owns a satellite TV, a generator , a vehicle , the life would be still better at least for the time being.

In a few years the bihari bhayyas, bangladeshis may infiltrate these areas too but at least until then, one can live peacefully

==> said...

@Anon above:
Indians are shitty poor in application maths, innovations and ECONOMY. All they know is to be prudent savers/earners by either exploiting someone or leaving low quality life.

Anonymous said...

If anyone wants to move to rural areas to live, they should study the demographics carefully. Failing to do this may put you in a hell hole.
A relative of mine moved into a picturesque small town in Maharashtra. Now he has to hear mating call of dogs, 5 times a day. Cows and goats are butcheerd in open spaces and young villagers are foreover on the lookout for opposite sex to mate.

It is always better to study the area yourself, talk to reliable people living there and best of all, rent a place and live there before you buy the land

Anonymous said...

==>

You negative India hating SOB, why dont you ==> yourself?????

==> said...

@Anonymous said...
You negative India hating SOB, why dont you ==> yourself?????


==> I don't understand, why people like you get upset with reality. Seems that pani puri did have some effect on you and you couldn't digest the truth of Indians (most of them).

You don't get offended when people said that Indians pee and poo on road. You didn't get offended when people are openly corrupt to harass for money and ego. You didn't get offended when Indian business exploit workers.

I can go on and you can call me SOB or you can look within yourself to see the root cause of issues.

Anonymous said...

There is no doubt that Indians are the most crooked people in the world. Those who disagree please explain the folloing phenomenon.

"1.25 lakhs for one peg'
http://www.mid-day.com/news/2011/apr/190411-Library-Bar-30ml-peg-Remy-Martin-Louis-XIII-Black-Pearl.htm

1.25 lakhs is roughly US $ 2800/ nearly equivalent to our GDP-PPP.
The above is to show the disparity in society. 1% of crooks exploit 99% of the population including those are on the brink of starvation, and enjoy themsrlves and boast about India's emerging economy. These people want all of us to bask in the perceived fictional natuinal glory.

The person who points out the facts is an antinational with negative thinking, this is what most Indians think

Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/income-tax-department-to-review-all-realty-deals-to-unearth-black-money/articleshow/8022587.cms

NEW DELHI: The income tax department plans to review realty deals following allegations of rampant use of black money in many transactions. "We will take appropriate action wherever we find involvement of black money in such transactions," said Sudhir Chandra , chairman, Central Board of Direct Taxes.

Anonymous said...

Yeah right!!!!! Once the audit starts, you will find the relatives of income tax officers buying high end flats!!!! How is this possible ? Dob't guess. You know the answer

==> said...

Yeah right!!!!! Once the audit starts, you will find the relatives of income tax officers buying high end flats!!!! How is this possible ? Dob't guess. You know the answer

==> IF... I repeat "IF" Indian authorities are really serious then they will follow the money trail. SO audit should follow where did relatives get money to purchase RE.

Frustrated said...

To =='

What you suggested is unlikely to happen. If one avenue is closed, others automatically open. You can't change the culture all of a sudden. It has to be gradual and there should be enforcers. I believe Indira Gandhi succeeded for a brief period of time but the whole population revolted and the system caught on with interest.

Govt can appoint enforcers but who is going to monitor the enforcer. Ex Chief Justice of India owns billions . Can anyone punish him for the money is obviously from graft.

Anonymous said...

All the ghost cities are created in China, so that when China invades India in 5 years they can take Indian prisoners and put them in the ghost cities and flats, homes. All of them will be coverted to prisons and concentration camps. Watch out.

Anonymous said...

Sharad Pawar's nephew implicated in land scam

CNN-IBN
Posted on Apr 20, 2011 at 06:52am IST

New Delhi: An IBN-Lokmat report has blown the lid off a land scam that implicates the Sharad Pawar family in Maharashtra. In 2007 when Ajit Pawar, nephew of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief, was irrigation minister of Maharashtra AG Mercantile, a company partly owned by Ajit was given a contract to repair a dam in Raigad. But instead of money for the repairs the company was given land.


AG Mercantile was given 93,646 sq ft of land on lease for 99 years. The land, located at the old Mumbai-Pune highway, overlooks a beautiful water reservoir.
In 2008, the company got an additional 97,000 sq ft of land for building a road and a bridge.

AG Mercantile has built lavish bungalows, swimming pools and waterfalls on this land ostensibly to attract tourists. The company even managed to get permission for boating within just two days of applying.

karthikraoa said...

Hey guys,
Does anyone know how to profit out of the Indian property bubble bursting. Are there any shares that one can short sell (For ex. in the U.S. one could short Home Builders, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Investment Banks etc.)
Just take a look at the chart of one of the home builders in India (DLF)

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stock-charts/dlf/charts/D04

It looks like the property bubble burst in 2008. Is it a good idea to short this again