Major Indian banks have exposure to Noida mess upto 1500 crores. Banks will soon see their profits decline.
And this is just the beginning. A major downfall in entire RE market is coming. People who get their money back will get back only the white component and the black money component builders will not return as nothing is on paper.
What a Bullshit. Do you think every buyer will go and file RTI. An average joe is expected to act as an lawyer?
Tell me a single case in RE has been filed and won. Adarsh? So many properties over years are build on forest land, slums are build by slumlords and then over period slumlord owns it indirectly. Want to goto court and fight... sure go ahead, may be your grandchildren have time to listen to ruling that might not be in favor because files are missing.
"==>", suggest you to take a break, you can't be adding your comments to each post, you bring zero value with you crap comments. I do tend to not read your posts, but then you seem to be filling up more than the blogger. Give us a break!
==> RE downfall is coming and it will be very bad. Builders will have to return the money and probably buildings will be demolished in Noida unless they pay a substantial amount to farmers, which means less profits for builders and banks gets screwed. If they don't pay, the buildings will be grounded.
Don't be too optimistic about corruption in India. Adarsh scam artists will be behind the bars soon. Believe in judiciary. Everyone is not a thief. Many people have high morals and are people of honor.
In the present market conditions, developers in Mumbai are more open to negotiation in the premium segment. They have been offering discounts that range between 15-20% in favour of a sizeable up-front payment.
Real-estate experts believe that in the coming months, the tight liquidity conditions, increasing inventories, rising interest rates, and construction costs should eventually tip the scales in the buyers' favour.
I hears this for the last few years but price is rising. It look to me the builders publising news to keep people quiet and not go after politican about their problem.
Our peoples in andheri, jogeswari, goregon getting threat from shiv sena, raj thakre, dawood ibrahim, chotta bhai people, pujari people, corporator to leave and go to bihar or up leaving our milk busness. They offers not market value but little money. Thet want to make more building because there is demand.
Went house hunting in Bangalore last weekend. In one bldg. found two properties (1.5 cr/ 1.1 cr) in nice area that are foreclosed by banks.
I found same US based NRI owner defaulted on both, now, bank is scrambling to sell. I wonder if this is an exception or many such properties are going to hit the market soon?!
SALES may go down in India but PRICES never go down in India. I have visited this blog for the past three years and every time there are doom and gloom stories about collapsing SALES…during a period where House prices have essentially tripled.
The fact of the matter is Indians have quietly grown extraordinarily wealthy over the past decade due to their prudent accumulation of Gold. The price of Gold has more than quintupled from 2002 ($250 per ounce) till present day ($1600 per ounce). Given that few Indians save in Rupees and the overwhelming lot save in Gold, this means that HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HAS MORE THAN QUINTIPLED OVER THE PAST DECADE.
If you are wondering where Indians get the money to afford 1 Crore apartments and 4 Crore houses, look no further than their bank safety deposit boxes. Indians are able to outbid each other because they have massively valuable gold savings to fall back on.
To those who say this is all a bubble because house prices have gone up exponentially since 2004-05, look at what Gold prices have done during the same period, and you will find the reason there.
There will be no real estate crash unless INR strengthens relative to Gold. The only way there will be a correction in Indian RE is when INR strengthens considerably in REAL terms accompanied by an increase in real interest rates.
You cannot have the INR go down and prices falling at the same time. If that happens, then NRI’s (for whom the effect of the crash will be magnified due to their forex savings) will plough money into Indian RE thus providing a solid floor to any correction. Further, Indians will also be suddenly able to afford more RE because the value of their Gold savings became much more valuable in INR terms.
You have to look at it at macro level. You are now in globalized world.
--Gold: It is up because of the RE bubble in US which has caused massive USD printing. Investors are trying to hold gold instead of paper currencies. All the G-20 nations also started printing equivalent money and gold further went up. Not only gold, all the precious metals. Right now 3 times more gold has been sold in the world than it is physically available.
India doesn't control anything. Neither the price of Gold, Oil or USD. I think all what is happening is too good to be true. Once the fall begins and it would eventually, it would take down all your high spirits and optimism about India.
What happens if: --US debt ceiling is delayed. It will eventually pass but could be delayed. --RE bubble in China really bursts and it takes down Australia with it. --EU countries like Spain and Italy eventually default. --Outsourcing slows or per hour rates are reduced for body shoppers.
You should understand the fact that the crisis EU or US is seeing is because of RE/credit bubbles they had 3-4 years ago. When it burst, you can see the present. It has yet to burst in many countries and you can see what may happen once it happens.
Easy credit and money created from thin air doesn't last for long.
If you are too optimistic, buy some more RE in India and enjoy the unfolding drama.
Some news from down under. The credit bubble is turning. And they have home prices go up by merely 70-80% over the last 6-7 years. Prices here in India have tripled or more.
Very righlty said. India doesn't control any of the commodity prices or precious metals or even currencies.
I think people have been buying and selling RE to each other without any added value due to easy credit and printed money by GOI. Drama is definitely unfolding.
RE prices are high because investors are flipping properties. THey can bid on a peice of land, pay a deposit of 30%, with deal to pay the rest of the money in 4 - 6 months. Thhen immediately ask another broker to sell the property for 15-20% of their purchase price. The sell the property again in 4 months, pay the original seller his balance and pockets a 40-50% gain on their initial cash outlay. THen they begin again. I know a person who did this in the US and is now bankrupt. Similar things will happen to flippers in India and RE will go back to its mean
Agreed India doesn't control commodity prices, but then who controls commodity prices, precious metals prices, currencies? Who controls real estate prices?
JP MORGAN CHASE AND GOLDMAN SACHS.THEY CONTROL COMMODITY PRICES AND STOCK MARKETS.THEY ARE LOOSING CONTROL DUE TO ONGOING BANKRUPTCY OF THE WESTERN WORLD.
I agrees with Anon 7:33. There are many buyer who has money but not used to filat. They likes like chawl or house near tabela. My chacha has some tabela in jogeswari. He has more than 100 corore rupia and has300-400 peoples work for him. He live in chawl near tabela. his children (my cosins) buy many filats in goregon, malad and jogeswari, kandivli. each filat more than 1 crore. They gives this for rent. As soon new filat come, they buys.
your chacha is mexing dudh with paani, and keeping all money in bilack. He cheats akha jogeshwari, goregoan, kadivili and malad with his dudh supply; and cheating bharat mata government with his bilack money because he no tay tax..
Pretty soon he will find out the builder made your chacha a big ch*tia, because builder put sand in the concrete..and building falling down...then your chacha will find out that the banks made the builder a ch*tia by crashing the RE market. Then your chacha will be taking his bilack cow and his tabela back to beehar...
I wonder what would happen when India's debt situation gets really ugly. Not many people are aware that India has more debt unlike the failing countries like Greece, Spain etc. and like USA now.
It could take down all the ongoing party in India to the toilet in a second.
I wonder what would happen when India's debt situation gets really ugly. Not many people are aware that India has more debt unlike the failing countries like Greece, Spain etc. and like USA now
With one main difference, most of the debt is owed internally to people of India and plus we have 35% saving which GOI can steal anytime with Inflation. Plus GOI has $500B worth of industries which can sell anytime and fill the deficits. Given this, comparatively, India is in a much better position.
As I said in my earlier post (12:53), as long as the world is willing to transfer purchasing power from paper currency to Gold (a trend that seems to be set to continue for the next decade at least), India will boom and suffer (or benefit – depending on your perspective) from very high asset prices in all asset classes. This is because Indians have vast reserves of Gold which they have meticulously saved over the past decades. Indians have quietly become vastly wealthy as a result owing to the net increase in gold prices over the past decade.
As long as Gold booms, prices of pretty much everything (from RE to equities to chicken biriyani) will boom in India because real household wealth has considerably risen due to the rise of gold prices.
RE values may correct, but only when measured in Gold, not when priced in Rupees.
As long as Gold booms, prices of pretty much everything (from RE to equities to chicken biriyani) will boom in India because real household wealth has considerably risen due to the rise of gold prices.
Bullshit! Who sells gold to buy chicken biryani? If you have 10 Rs in your pocket, 1000 Rs in your bank and 1Kg gold in your bank locker (or a 1 crore aptt.), would you want to pay more for your chicken?
Rising asset values will not cause your disposable income to go up. In fact, people who don't own these very assets will start demanding more for their goods/services because ultimately they also want to own a house/gold and consequently your cost of maintaining your assets will go up.
At current land prices, everyone in Delhi is a crorepati but then you should watch them queue at CNG stations for half an hour each day and haggle with bhajiwallahs for 5 Rs discount and you will know the real worth of these crorepatis.
I see a lot of comments linking RE to inflation, RE can get de-linked from inflation pretty quickly, it's happened many a times before and will happen again. An Apartment has value only if you have a proper job, in the absence of industry a city is the worst place to live in. Gold and Farmland are better linked to very high inflation(stagflation) IMO, just look at history.
"RE can get de-linked from inflation pretty quickly, it's happened many a times before and will happen again."
Very true. As inflation rises, interest rates will rise. Secondly, people will have lesser disposable income and also incentive to save, which means banks lending will slow down. No other industry is as dependent on credit as is the RE industry. Without flow of credit, prices will fall steeply.
In fact, contrary to popular opinion, RE is a poor asset class during high/hyper inflation. Do you really see people running around to buy homes/land in Zimbabwe? Besides, banks dont have anything to lend. All the cash is taken out and spent on daily goods. In a hyperinflationary economy, when you get your salary, you run to the grocery store and buy whatever you can (if the store is not empty already).
Gold and probably the dollar (questionable in these times:) are your only protection.
Neither INR nor Gold nor US$ have any meaning - the real economy runs on demand and supply - real goods and services
ON the demand size us cockroach like breeding Indians have no shortage. That is not stopping anytime soon - look at UP and Bihar they together have more population than entire United States. - It will take 100-150 years for them to come out of poverty.
On the supply side - look at quality - good quality builders and good neighborhoods will maintain their price (in USD GLD or INR).
On Gold - The rich and powerful nations will never let Gold become the currency (remember during the great depression Roosevelt confiscated all Gold and banned gold as exchange medium). The same will happen this time.
The ideal strategy would be to have one hedge (gold/retirement) and spend the rest to enjoy your life- rent if possible, buy that car, take that foreign trip, go to that concert, get that XBOX and 46 inch TV and live your life. Focus on making society better. That is a much better investment of your time and resources than parking monies inside the same corrupt realty system that you want to reform. Even all investment products are a scam by the same banksters who are controlling RE and commodity prices fudging the real demand supply
If you pinch every penny to buy some worthless piece of property that would need 2 hours commute and that you can barely afford you are lame - you might as well throw that money in the drain. You will lose both your lifetime and your savings and then you will wait for your kids to achieve the stuff you missed.
Only a war or catastrophe will break the present nexus. During troubled times, gold and guns are the only hedge - India doesn't allow you to buy guns so we are all screwed
septic ghost you are racest pig. because of up bihar mumbai runnibg, we works hard and we hear bad word from gandu like you ?. who is your father ? yoy know ?
"So if you have the money, buy a flat with a third of your net worth in case of bad times. SO if you have a crore, spend 30L on a flat"
Very true, don't buy a house on loan, worst decision you can make ever, people talk about hedging against risks while putting money in stock markets, how much sense does it make to put all your current and future money on one house !!
Another 0.5% hike by RBI. Further pressure on EMIs. wonder what kind of compromises people have to do so that they can pay the increased sums in addition to the high food inflation.
So if you have the money, buy a flat with a third of your net worth in case of bad times. SO if you have a crore, spend 30L on a flat.
It doesn't work that way. If you have 1 crore, you would want to probably live in a bigger house worth 2.5 Cr with all the luxurious amenities than settling in a small 2BHK apartment.
The interest rate is rising; sales volumes and registrations are dwindling; home buyers are running shy; and just when everyone expects builders to drop prices, they go and do just the opposite.
A handful of leading developers have hiked the rates at their ongoing projects by 10-20% in the past fortnight, even as others are holding on to their prices despite the adverse market conditions.
The trend of firming prices is visible not only in Mumbai and Thane but also in other neighbouring locations like Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli and Vasai-Virar.
“Good quality apartments in prime areas are in high demand and always command a premium,” says Devang Trivedi, managing director, Progressive Group, adding that both genuine buyers and investors are flush with funds and always willing to pay a premium. On its part, Progressive has hiked the rates at all its projects in Navi Mumbai by 10-15% in the past one month.
Industry observers feel that the move is also a strategic one to break the current stalemate. “For instance, BMC’s new DCR rules that govern FSI premium have not even been drawn and developers are already talking about the prices of houses shooting up by 20%.
The idea is to create a sense of panic among home buyers who have been patiently waiting for prices to rationalise and, once the buyers blink, the builders can go ahead and roll out another round of hike in real-estate prices,” says a senior partner at an MNC consultancy.
VS: Affordable housing also means housing that is attainable. I don't see the poor people from Mumbai or Delhi ever attaining that level when they can own a house. To reduce the cost, one must stay on the outskirts, and poor people have to live further away. The cost of transportation will affect them. Where land is so scarce and so costly, there is no question of community-based living. It will remain a distant dream.
MUMBAI: Developers proposing a property hike may well do a rethink. With no visible signs of a meaningful correction in property prices making affordability a major correction, there is a growing trend of people preferring to stay on rent in Mumbai.
Since December 2010, lease agreements have increased by 20% to touch a new high of 10,191 in June 2011. In June 2009, 7,592 documents were registered, while in June 2010, 9,195 documents were registered with the stamp duty and registration department. In February 2011, Mumbai saw 8,055 agreements, compared to 6,704 in February 2010, according to a report by equity brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher, quoting the director general of registrations.
Ramesh Nair, JLL managing director (west India), said rent was a preferred option. "Yield income has fallen to 3%. Considering one gets 9% interest on parking the money in the bank, buyers are not interested in purchasing a flat at such high rates, especially when the rental income will barely be able to cover their monthly EMIs,'' said Nair.
Boman Irani, Keystone Group MD, and Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry secretary, said there was no reason for concern. "Sales are always slow during the rains. In fact, sales dropped 2-4%. With regards to property prices, rates are a factor to demand and supply. If approvals are delayed, supply will be constrained. Prices will automatically rise. The civic chief is making efforts to streamline the system, we hope projects will be approved at the earliest.''
The slowdown in activity in the property market, rising interest rates and costs of construction are felt by property developers and home sellers. “I have a two bedroom apartment in central Mumbai; it’s a very nice building with a garden and a gym. I put it on the market three months ago and haven’t received a single inquiry,” said Rajesh Jogani, a Mumbai based real estate investor.
Looks like people will brush off 0.5% hike just like they had done it for earlier hikes. I doubt EMI pinches the cash rich class buying crores worth of real estate. They will keep buying and no change for people who couldn't afford earlier, cannot afford now and cannot afford in future.
Builders are not in trouble. They have no reason to compromise and pay more to farmers. If building gets delayed, they don't stand to loose. There is no re-course to buyers.
I have seen many such issues that have lingered on not fore few months but many years. We have basically no consumer protection. I will tell you, this will go ultimately till PM, who is in-effective. I think the buyers have been fooled and will remain in fool for long. If I was buyer, I would take my money and run, if that was possible.
Earlier I was thinking investors will get scared, after this news, and will feel bit relaxed, if they get their money back from builders.
However, I was wrong. I was surprised to know that these INVESTORS don't want their money back but want only flats.
And why not, the flat which they bought at 15 lacs is not today is of 45 lacs (though it is bubble), why investor will go for a loss??? So this is height of GREEDINESS from investors of Noida extension. Their greediness in turn causing bubble in real estate market, and adversely affecting the actual buyers and end users.
@anon when interest rates are low RE prices go up and when interest rates are hiked, RE prices again go up !!
For builders, the compulsion to keep raising prices is akin to that of riding a tiger. If you get down from the tiger, it will kill and eat you up.
Today, majority of expensive (read high margin, high profit) RE is being lapped up by investors only since it is already out of reach for most real buyers. The moment these investors see a downtick, they will run away from RE this puncturing the whole bubble. Therefore builders have no option but to keep increasing the price. Let the party continue...
Builders will lower the prices very moderately and not much. The major downfall will come from NPAs and other effects to the economy in view of the overall global economy. Easy money is soon going away and it would be hard to get credit. Next will be salary cuts in wake of strengthening Rupee.
In US, builders still sell high priced houses but the NPAs in US is so high, builders are not able to sell their stuff as earlier. There are morons in US also who want new houses and end up paying twice the price. Banks sell the houses for almost half the street prices.
Finally, Brazil's bubble is deflating big time. The country is imposing strict policies to pop its RE bubble. They have the same story as India, too much FDI (which is declining unlike India), RE prices rose 300-400% in the past 3-5 years, stock market massively overvalued. Google the info in its slowdown.
We Indians should get prepared for the downfall here in India. I'm selling all my RE and going short on stocks. Maybe in the next 3-5 months, things may really slow down. I hope my job stays as I work in a private company and they don't do layoffs. I'm thinking of my father who always used to say "Sarkari naukri" try karo. And I did pass the IES exams but stayed in private sector to become rich quicker.
Please don’t post stories here about declining sales. If there are any stories about declining PRICES (as in someone has been able to buy a house at a significant discount), then please post that.
You are missing the point. It hurts buyers pride and intent if they say bought flat and price has declined. If they buy for less price they don't want to declare the same because of neighbors envy and wrath.
Seller, Bankers, builders, and investors - they are never interested and hurts their pockets to say real estate is in decline.
Only sources remains are news media and information blogs. But again these are biased and news what 'someone' said.
No wonder you will NEVER hear stories.... use your god given brain, apply valuation and fundamentals to understand real story.
If one crore flats are bought and sold as if buying muli-sabji then worth of rupees is worth muli-sabji.
Anon above, you are correct that people who buy low do not disclose.
I put my flat for sale in Gurgaon. People said you can get 90 lacs for it. I gave it to a realtor an deven after 3 months, no response. I needed the money and I reduced the price to 85 then 80. Still no response as per the realtor. I changed the agent, still no response. Fianlly priced it at 70 lacs. Many people came to see but most were needing loans and no final deal was done. Finally, the second agent brought another agent who said he would buy it from me for 65lacs. He wanted to buy at 65 and sell it for 80-90lacs in the market. I told him fine. He is ready to make money available by cheque and let's see if the deal goes through.
Moral: Do not believe what the prices untill you find a buyer. It is highly likely that the agen buying from me would make 5 lacs on it by reselling it but I didn't want the headache and didn't want to wait. Prices are indeed falling as there are less and less buyers and more expensive to get loans.
@Pawan, "Today, majority of expensive (read high margin, high profit) RE is being lapped up by investors only"
I wish we had some hard data on this. But from the little anecdotal evidence that I have, I would tend to agree. I know some of my NRI relatives who have bought homes here for investment.
One sign of a bubble is when people buy an asset merely in the hope of capital appreciation without really worrying about the income that it generates. This certainly seems to be true in case of luxury homes (70L+) where rental yields are very low. This is fine if people have priced in higher rents in the future.
But with signs that the economy is slowing down, jobs and wage growth will moderate and rents may not grow at expected levels.
We do have hard data. The amount of FDI money in RE has grown 80 times in 5 years (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-08-22/india-business/28305620_1_city-and-regional-level-real-estate-fdi).
Earlier these people were buying RE stocks but now they directly invest in a project. They buy substantial stake in a project early so that builder's cost is recovered and he is happy too. Then they sell it to customers for a 50% return in 2 years time as the project is nearing completion. If you don't call them investors, who else would you?
These PE funds have money from rich foreigners, NRIs and all the corrupt politician's money and most of these funds are based in tax-havens like Mauritius.
When we talk of investors, we should remember that individual investors cannot move the market. Just as in case of stock markets where FIIs run the show, in case of RE the PE/FDI guys are directing everything.
The main issue with housing is lack of simple and legal way to convert agriculture land to residential land. India does not lack land. We have huge amount of it. In fact about half of India is not even arable, but it is classified as agriculture land. But the challenge is as cities are expanding or new ones are coming up, this land needs to be converted to residential. The process to convert to residential is very complex and corrupt.
We had 8 acre plot in Gujarat which we tried to convert to residential. The process is so bad and filled with all bureaucrats needing something out of it. It took us really long time to get that conversion done. Once done, construction was piece of cake. In fact I think our construction cost was about Rs 700 per sq ft for I would say Grade B type setup.
All government has to do is simplify this process and make it single window clearance for such application. The artificial land shortage, and hence increase premium on price, will disappear immediately.
@Shailesh Why would the govt simplify the process? It is a big income earner (black money generator) for the authorities. Everyone from the peon upwards till ministers is on the take from converting A land to NA land. The same money goes into politicians "party funds". I have seen semi-literate people working in these 7/12 land records offices become multi millionaires (black) due to all these zoning and other regulations.The really powerful politicos do not care about these paper regulations anyway-they simply occupy govt land with slums, create vote banks and come to power and then stay there. They do not care two cents about any middle class people. Why should they anyway? You are not their gravy train
Anon above, Not just politicians but many other people all over the world. Somehow Indians have very less ethics and are more corrupt. I would say that people who cheat don't even enjoy the stolen money for 20-30 years max and not 50 years. And their kids blow it away and get bad habits. Most people I've known who took bribes etc. Died early in life. Either due to their bad drinking habits or their bad karma.
Enjoy your life and family. Do not run after money. Have enough to be happy and work sincerely. I never even buy a lottery ticket as I,m happy with my job and not need too much.
1. Exactly when has the middle class Joe Blow been able to afford a house in India? Job descriptions may have changed over the years: professions such as teacher, office superintendent or bank teller may have been replaced by computer programmers, call centre attendant or system administrator but their relative status (lodged solidly in the middle-class hierarchy in a country renown for its wealth disparities) has not changed. So here’s my question again: When in the past 60 years has the average man on the street been easily able to afford a house in India?
2. If housing has to correct, then INR has to dramatically increase. The reverse cannot be true (if INR falls AND housing corrects at the same time, then NRIs will rush in to buy RE, thus placing a solid floor on any correction). So under what circumstance do you think the RBI will let INR rise to meaningful levels? I note that all the interest rate increases in the recent past has not budged USD/INR which stubbornly bumps along around the 45 INR mark. India is doing exactly what China is doing: raising interest rates while printing tons of currency to keep the Yuan pegged to the collapsing USD. Asset price corrections are near impossible under such circumstances. Massive interest rate increases have done NOTHING to dent RE price levels in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Shanghai, Beijing or Guanghou. Both China and India have housing bubbles because of their fiscal and monetary policies. Unless those policies change, people will flee to hard assets such as RE.
3. One of the reasons for high RE in India is that the average Indian investor does not have a lot of alternative asset classes to chose from where he can invest money because of the non-convertibility of INR. Indians cannot easily invest in (say) Mongolian equities or London RE because of these restrictions. If Indians have to sell Indian RE en masse (and that creates a correction), where else do you think they will park their money? In the fast-wilting INR? Sorry but Indians are not that stupid. Where you have a failing currency, real assets will always be priced highly in such places. House prices never meaningfully correct when measured in local currency terms in places with exploding populations and weak currencies. Don’t take my word for it. Just ask the people of Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Angola, Vietnam when their RE prices last corrected WHEN MEASURED IN THEIR LOCAL CURRENCIES. You will get blank stares in response.
4. Gold prices reach a record high day after day after day. Indians have amassed massive reserves of Gold that they can rely on to fund any increase to EMI payments (even if interest rates reach stratospheric levels). There is zero chance of the levels of mass foreclosures and defaults seen in the US in India which triggered a housing collapse. Indians have substantial private savings in Gold unlike spendthrift Americans, British or Spaniards.
The bottom line is that as long as the Rupee remains a structurally weak currency, RE will remain strong when measured in Rupees simply because there are no other reasonable inflation hedges for the average Indian. RE may correct, but only when measured in CHF or SGD, not when measured in INR.
anon above, does that mean real estate in India will never correct? will people keep affording and buying unaffordable housing?
last question: where and how will current and future buyers afford this... they cannot print money at their home. I am not saying that everyone would be able to afford... I am saying 90% of the mass currently cannot afford. Also in past people had choice to move out to different city for affordable housing... but this real estate craze is all over India, infact all over Asian countries.
Sometimes I feel like let dollar devalue and see if our proud India has balls to devalue their currency too.
From an interaction Motilal Oswal Securities (MOSL) analysts had with real estate agents, they found that sales volumes in Mumbai are weak and plummeting in the National Capital Region, but they are largely stable in Bengaluru and Chennai, with a limited impact on the increasing mortgage rates.
Anuj Puri, chairman and country head, Jones Lang LaSalle India, argues that "Purchasing activity has already dropped visibly during the last tranche of interest rate hikes, and we will see a further drop in buyer interest now. As for developers coming down on their prices to counter the negative effects of this hike, a lot will depend on the financial ability of individual developers to hold on to their current pricing and risk losing sales till the situation improves. Developers with enough capital base are less likely to relent on their pricing, than smaller developers with an urgent need to sell their stock."
@anon - "RE may correct, but only when measured in CHF or SGD, not when measured in INR."
One can make two statements. One, real estate is not overvalued currently and therefore is a good hedge against inflation. Second, real estate is overvalued, but still remains a good hedge against inflation. I am assuming you are making the second statement. I disagree with the inflation hedge part. Monetization of debt (printing money) will not prevent mean reversion and will not prevent real and quite possibly nominal losses.
For example - Gold often considered the best hedge is still trading below its 1980 value in real terms.
Besides, give our central bankers some credit. If they really were so tolerant of inflation, would they be tightening the interest rate screws faster than any other bank in the world? And that too in the face of vociferous opposition from industry and home owners. And more rate hikes are expected. Hardly the sign of a despotic Zimbabwe style regime as many on this post seem to imply.
>Exactly when has the middle class Joe Blow been able to afford a house in India?
True. But what is the affordability range for Joe today? Experts say 40-60L is the sweet spot. which means a range of 60-80 will be beyond the average Joe. Currently the range is ruling at 80-120 Lakh.
I am not in the camp that says RE will crash. I am saying in near-term a 20% correction in nominal terms is expected and well-deserved. 10 years later we may be 50% down in real-terms.
True. But what is the affordability range for Joe today? Experts say 40-60L is the sweet spot. which means a range of 60-80 will be beyond the average Joe. Currently the range is ruling at 80-120 Lakh.
==> 40-60L was and is still unaffordable for "average Joe". Cheap credit and cheap tricks gives illusion of affordability. It must be sweet spot for investors that have accumulated RE and created artificial demand.
I agree with your post when replaced "average Joe" with "average investors". Now average investors are backing out at 80 to 120 Lakh segment. Watch out now as big players are getting pinched.
Also, I don't want to get personal, you seem to be investor.
Bhayya, where can you gets a flat for 60 lakhwa in mumbai city. Please give me address and i am ready to pay all money is cash.
60 lakhwa days are gone. You wont even get zopda for this money
==> great. then what stops you from buying 1+ crore house? put 60 lakhs downpayment and rest 40 lakhs of loan which I am sure any bank will be happy to lend you. Ofcourse you must have capability to pay EMI.
are you still here? (tuought you must have rushed to buy house by now, as you don't want to miss the plane)
BTW, I never said 60 lakhs flats are available. and if they are, they all are 1 BHK in suburbs.
==> Also, I don't want to get personal, you seem to be investor.
Doesn't matter for the sake of discussion on this forum but I am not an investor. I am a guy who wants to buy a good house to live in but is not too keen to pay the price being asked for.
If you are buying a house in the short term with your loose cash then go ahead and do it, no one's stopping you.
But if you are looking at 15-20 year timeline and looking towards a comfy retirement with your savings, it's far better to invest in farmland in a place that still has water left. In the long run that's the only thing that will work. Don't worry about this economic theory, RBI and all that shit.
When people start running out of resources I doubt the wads of cash and coins of gold are going to help. The water scarcity in North India is already visible from space, I wonder how long this thing will keep evolving.
"That’s because gold is a great store of value—except when it’s not. Had you become fed up with the inflation of the Jimmy Carter years and moved your savings to gold in 1980, you would have watched your “store of value” fall by 70% in the two decades that followed. And this would have happened during a period of persistent (though falling) inflation."
Just looked at gold chart(2000-2011) and its crazy. the chart starts like a slum and ends like a highrise
Makes me happy to know that "Humpty dumpty will have a great fall" :)
Humpty = gold dumpty = real estate
"All the kings men and soldiers couldnt put him together :)"
Buy land is better than filat in city. I bought 60 bigha (30 acre) land near bijnour for 25 Lakhwa. We dont strust raj thakre, so better make ready to go from mumbai shahariya
Compensation on par with rate at which land was allotted by Greater Noida Authority to builders. In Noida Extension area, land was allotted to builders at Rs 10,000-12,000 per sqm. Farmers say since the authority works on a no-profit, no-loss basis, it should not have problems giving this rate to farmers. For land acquired from farmers and on which the authority built public facilities such as roads, sewers, parks etc, it should give compensation at the prevalent market rate. Farmers say this is necessary to neutralise the loss from the illegal sale of 60 acres of community land (gram panchayat land) in Patwadi to builders. 17.5 per cent of the total number of flats being built by builders should be reserved for farmers. If they are not allotted these flats, cash equivalent to the cost of these 17.5 per cent flats should be given to farmers. The Noida Authority has promised to give every farmer a plot in a developed sector six per cent the size of the land acquired from them. Farmers now want this figure raised to 10 per cent and stamp duty done away with. Farmers want the Noida Authority to return abadi (inhabited) land to them and restore their full ownership over such land, abolishing the authority's practice of leasing such land to farmers. 30 per cent job quota in industries, IT and fashion institutions. Plus, 30 per cent quota in admissions in all primary and senior secondary education institutes apart from 30 per cent fees waiver on their children.
Yaaro, RE party een Hindustan ez ending (Khattam ho raha hai - for the short term). All drunks will be dead in their "nasha". "Pilane wale" (Banks, PE, etc) ees selling emerging markets and moving into Dollars, Francs, Gold, etc. for short term. Foolish eenvestors are holding on (will get rammed).
QE's es not doing crap to any economy as u c today markets moved down en wake of new QE. As soon as USD ees downgraded, which will be very soon, all USD parked overseas ($2T or more by US corporations and $2T or more by private/institutional holders)will hit the shores of US or move eento safer currencies (any left? maybe the SWEES FRANC) or commodities or Multinational stocks in US. Thees will create ze next beeg bull run in US equities in the next 2 years.
So eef you are eenvestor, find beegger "bakra" (greater fool) to unload your assets. Eef you are a new buyer/end user have patience. It ees not "end of world".
Mark my words, beeg time Enflation cominng to USA soon and it will keell emerging markets.
"Clear signs of slowdown have emerged over the last 3-4 months," Chetan Ahya, an economist at the bank said in a report. Morgan Stanley cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2012 to 7.2 percent from 7.7 percent. That's far below the government's forecast for growth of 8.2 percent for the current fiscal year.
The real estate index has corrected nearly 37% over the last one year. The real estate market is hanging on a sword edge with multiple triggers slowing the market down. BSE Realty Index
Not only buyers, but even the real estate companies are also in troubled waters. Cost of funds for developers ranges anywhere in the range of 14.5% to 16%, depending on the credibility of the borrower. The rate hike is only making it more expensive. Also the banks have not been willing to lend to the real estate sector in the recent past.
The Reserve Bank of India has laid out strict and tedious due diligence standards for banks in sanctioning loans to the real estate sector. The banks have to verify the documents, including cross verification with the local administration, to ensure that frauds are eliminated.
Does anyone else feel that "decoupling" was a myth? We only sailed through the recession because of all the QE cash coming our way. In the process, we only managed to push our problems down the road. Now it will our (and China's and Australias) turn for the post-party hangover.
I read in a report that Sensex companies now earn 25-30% of their income from overseas operations (Europe, America, Japan, Africa etc).
If condition become bad and 1/3rd of this income is lost but the domestic scenario remains good then the overall effect on earnings will only be 10%. So yes we are still decoupled.
However, it was noted in the 2008 period that even rich people whose income had not been affected in 2008 also cut down on spending.
A 10% cut in real earnings can cause a correction of 30% in stock markets easily.
Then there is a case of pushing the demand forward/back. If interest rates are low, you may want to buy that new car a year earlier. If interest rates are high, you may push that demand ahead by one year. This also affects earnings.
Unfortunately, RE seems unfazed by all this. In Gurgaon at least, no one is willing to cut prices irrespective of whether sales are happening or not.
O Just who will blink first..... must read. http://www.firstpost.com/business/wholl-blink-first-in-mumbai-home-buyers-or-builders-52499.html?utm_source=MC_HOME_WIDGET
when home prices become untenable and interest rates are going to only rise in the future, it's not a question of choice. Buyers have no choice. They just cannot buy, if they do they will be indentured slaves and even then may lose everything.
So buyers will continue to rent. They will continue to do so until the prices become no-brainers..and even then they will wait for prices to drop further. Sorry, builders, but that's just reality. You folks (builders) are in denial!
India's RE is going to take a massive hit in the next few months. Some of the reasons being:
--RBI increasing interest rates and will increase more as inflation is still very high.
--Political turmoil in India brewing.
--Europe is going further in the toilet. Italy is next to default.
--USA growth is very slow. Many contracts are going to be cancelled to Indian IT companies and rates lowered.
--USD weakening will cause India's exports to decline.
--Consumer sentiment in India is diving. Layoffs are coming and salaries that were really high are going to be slashed by as much as half. No more 60 lac rupees jobs at mid management level.
--FDI withdrawing money and Sensex/Nifty will drop by 40-50% due to outflows and weak results from corporate India.
What a mess we are all in. Someone who didn't buy cannot buy for another 3-4 years or more. Reason being the Govt. will try hard to keep RE bubble intact and in this process would just prolong the correction.
Vik, time for a new post for you. Do you ever read these posts here. Never seen you commenting. Or you got laid off and looking for a new job.
What you saw today is a mad rush to gold. Wait till people in India come to senses that RE is flawed, they will dump RE and jump on gold bandwagon. We will see spikes of upto $100 per day and gold will easily top $2500 by end of 2012. RE going to dumped by investors in India and China big time.
People are going to Gold because everything else is failing. Once things get back to normal in 2-3 years, Gold will be dumped and will be back to $300 per ounce.
Intrinsic value of gold is well above $300. In 2000 when gold was at its low point, it cost more than $200 to mine one oz of gold. In 2011 the mining cost is about $750 or more per oz. Also look at the Money supply since 2000 and you can tell where gold is heading. So your statement that gold will be $300 is fundamentally flawed.
The money supply, and mining costs, fear in markets, etc will drive gold prices to $2500 or higher. Governments can only print their way out of the mess that the economies are in now.
This is the same rationale that a smart investor uses to measure RE prices in India, which is way high compared to its intrisic value (i.e. irrational exuberace is over in Indian RE) and it is time to go back to REs intrinsic value, which is measured by current rental yeilds.
If you are so confident, you should go double short in Gold (GLL) but watch your rear though.
I shorted Gold at $1500 and I'm happy. It may go to 2500 but who knows.
I think India, China, Brazil, Aussie are all going to tank big time pretty soon. I invested heavily in RE in US after the collapse buying housing for pennies and renting them. I'm waiting for the same to happen in India and Aussie. Will buy more RE in these countries and retire at 36 years of age.
My investments in US are already paying me 30% rental return. Gold is too risky for me. Moreover, I've enough gold for bad days in the form of jewellery.
RE is a good investment in places like US where it is selling at 30% from peak prices. Looking at the economy, I feel wall street used the economies of BRIC countries for their beneifit and are now shorting all of them.
Masses would be crushed as they are not aware of the game plan.
-SHort RE in India and all SE Asia. Short Stocks -Buy Gold as it will go to at least 2200. -Sit tight and save your job and marriage. -Have a few drinks and go to bed.
Sensex is going down by another 300points today. Party is coming to an end for all the mutual funds, stocks and all the high paid useless MBAs creating scams.
The Canberra Times reports from Australia. “An Australian Property Monitors report out today shows the national housing market is dampening. Senior economist Andrew Wilson said Canberra’s strong market could be deterring buyers. ‘Canberra median house and unit prices recorded significant falls over the June quarter with affordability barriers and subdued confidence appearing to affect the market with declining levels of buyer activity,’ Dr Wilson said.”
“The figures reveal houses in Tuggeranong, Belconnen, Woden, Gungahlin and Weston recorded the strongest growth in the past 12 months, with houses in Conder rising 19.8 per cent from a median $430,000 a year ago to $515,000 in the June quarter. NATSEM principal research fellow Ben Phillips said affordability had become an Australia-wide issue. ‘It’s no longer just capital cities that are facing affordability issues,’ he said. ‘Affordability levels in Wollongong, Newcastle, Mandurah and the Gold and Sunshine Coast are now on par with major capital cities.”’
Business Live on Thailand. “The MahaNakorn — Great Metropolis — will tower over the Thai capital when it is finished in 2014. The 19 billion baht ($640 million) tower will house apartments, a shopping centre and a Ritz-Carlton hotel. The Bank of Thailand has described 2010 as the ‘golden year for real estate businesses’, with strong demand for homes — driven by low interest rates and increased consumer confidence — causing a flurry of new building.”
“Property research group Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) figures show there were more than 135,000 unsold property units in Bangkok and its suburbs as of July 2011, including projects under construction. Another 100,000 units are expected to come in to the market next year. Developer Sorapoj shrugged off jitters over the health of the real estate sector. ‘I’m not worried about oversupply. The new government will do whatever it takes to prevent bubbles,’ he said.”
From Mizzima. “The real estate market boom in Rangoon has reached a peak and the boom is likely to burst soon say local residents but seasoned real estate brokers and construction companies say maybe not. Kyauktada and Pabedan have a bigger demand and the prices are highest. The prices for ground floor flats rose five fold in the last five years with the current price of 30’x60’ flats between 250-400 million kyat (US$ 312,500 to 500,000) but there are few sellers for these flats. Properties in Pyi Road and Kabaraye Pagoda Road are also rising to 300,000 to 500,000 kyat per square foot (US$ 375 to 625).”
“‘Since 2008, the price of real estate has skyrocketed. After the gem emporium, the Chinese-Shan bought properties by paying the calling prices without bargaining if they liked them. Then the calling prices became market prices later,’ a seasoned real estate broker said.”
“Land prices for big plot along Pyi Road and Kabaraye Pagoda Road rose to 500,000 kyat (US$ 625) per square foot from 100,000 kyat (US$ 125). Some assume the property market bubble will burst soon but a noted construction business firm owner said that the current prices for real estate in Burma are not as high as property market prices in most Asean countries, such as Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Singapore.”
“These small units, which measure 47 square metres (506 square feet) or less, have increased in importance since 2009, with their prices trending higher compared to non-landed properties in the central and non-central regions during the past two years. As such, IRES said it will introduce a separate index - apart from its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) - to measure the prices of ’shoe box’ units as their price volatility has a significant impact on overall housing prices.”
From Bloomberg. “China’s home prices rose at the slowest pace in 11 months in July after the government expanded efforts to curb the risk of an asset bubble, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd. Nationwide purchase restrictions may damp local economies, said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. ‘The one-size-fits-all rule may not have as good an effect as expected because local governments still highly rely on land sales for revenue,’ Liu said in a phone interview.”
“‘The property market in China is headed for a big bust,’ Puru Saxena, chief executive officer of Puru Saxena Wealth Management in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg Television on July 25, citing excess capacity and empty condos.”
New Westminster News Leader in Canada. “On a rare sunny day, two men tending a barbecue at a recent summer get-together may have had this conversation: —This is a nice neighbourhood. How long have you guys lived here? —Four years.”
“—It’s still pretty reasonable buying out here I guess? —Yeah, pretty good. We bought this one for 700 grand. Might go for a bit more now, maybe 800. —800? Man, that’s amazing. I didn’t know houses out here were that cheap —Like borscht. You own a place?”
“—No I’m still renting in Vancouver. My wife and I’ve got a nice two-bedroom that we’re only paying two grand a month for, but still, I’d really like to get into the market…But even the tear-downs are a million-plus. A friend lives out in Point Grey and he had a realtor knock on his door and offer two million on behalf of a client, sight unseen. I mean, a million I could probably do. But two? Nuh-uh.”
“(A woman inside the house calls out, asking if the burgers are ready) -Hey, I didn’t ask, how’s the teaching job going? Still working part time? —Yes. —And Caroline? She’s still doing her masters? —Almost done. One more term left, and then hopefully she’ll get a job soon. We’ve got some pretty big student loans to pay. Meantime, we’ve got to get ourselves a house soon. Time is running out. Prices are only going to keep going up.”
“—Agreed. People talk about a bubble. I don’t believe it. Vancouver’s different. Everyone wants to live here now. Mild climate, the population’s booming, it’s beautiful and you know, there’s only so much space to build on before you hit the mountains or the sea. —You are so right. Only bubbles around here are in these bottles.”
RE bubble all over the world looks like RE bubble in USA 5 years ago.
Stick to the USA, buy rental properties in great metros. If you want to venture further out, follow the gas boom and you can pick properties in Western PA, SE Ohio, ND, etc for the cheap. My RE has returned 30% plus yoy with 10% down through the boom/bust years.
Rental RE in USA is the best investment in the world today, besides Gold, Apple, Good Utilities, and Big Oil. Since credit is tight and good people with decent jobs need a roof over thier head.
I shorted Gold @1500 and invested in RE in USA. Really happy about my investments. In 8 years they will pay off themselves and in 10-12 years would double in price as I bought really cheap and USA will have massive inflation in the next few years.
Paging Dr. Vik or Dr. Shailesh. Wake up buddy. Time for a new post.
RE prices will not fall drastically without any external trigger, the builders have enough cash to wait out another few years and besides that there is ample black money floating around.
However if the economy goes into tailspin (looking quite likely), which will mean that living in a city itself becomes a liability, expect the shit to hit the fan. Greece is already seeing reverse migration into the villages, there is every chance it can happen elsewhere.
@anon - "the builders have enough cash to wait out another few years and besides that there is ample black money floating around."
Disagree on both counts. Builders are having to raise cash at upwards of 30% p.a. Black money is not dumb money. If it does not returns in RE, it will not go there.
and... it is ALWAYS other person's fault. Saau chuhey khakey billi haaj ko chaali. Buyers are always in mindset of sab chalta hai, mumbai mein aaisi choti chhoti baaton pe lafda nahin karne ka...
Finally blame govt for corruption, and when govt is doing something right.... again blame them as it is not my fault... it is other person's fault.
Mumbai has lots of land, the current setup is designed to maximize profits for a few on the backs of many. Mumbai needs someone with brass balls to take care of things, or somone with no balls, like a Woman!
Mumbai has lots of land, the current setup is designed to maximize profits for a few on the backs of many
Baba , you are living in dreamland. Mumbai population density currently is 40,000 per sq. km. , the highest in the world. The city is a decaying human dump. The 40,000 figure is an average. There may be areas where the population density may be 400,000 per sq. km and also there may be areas where the population may be 4000 per sq. km.
What the govt is doing is just trying to push out the poor people from slum, redevelop the place and pocket as much money as possible to deposit in foreign lands for future use for theit kith and kins. The people pushed out from slums start a new slum in some park or empty place, spend the money got as compensation in bars and red light districts thus filling the pockets of rich.
There is no hope for cities like mumbai, bangalore and pune.
Guys like you who talk from their ass are always trying to create an impression that India is great whereas the reverse is true
That density ratio goes down significantly if you consider whole MMR region as Mumbai. What is lacking is infrastructure to bring larger MMR region into Mumbai fold.
Looks like the whole scam game world wide of creating easy money and bubbles is falling apart. I think it would be better for the world to go down and at least find a bottom, a bedrock that they can build up in future. All the G-20 nations have done is kick the can down the road without fixing the problem.
Same with India. Unless GOI realises there is a problem with RE prices, the problem cannot be solved. Just printing money infinitely is making it worse in the long run for our kids.
Contd. from above: All the effects of QE1 and QE2 created by US Fed should be wiped off. The US Fed and EU should not interfere now by printing more money. They should just let it find a bottom and then grow from there.
If they print more now, the BRICs would be totally spooked due to massive inflation and high commodity prices worldwide.
It is time for reality to surface with massive deflation in RE prices and stocks all over the world.
The Dow is down by 300 points and the Italian stock market had to be closed for a while as the circuit breakers were hit. A contraction has already started, Gold just erased 30$ in a few hours, but wait I can hear the printers warming up again.
The Dow is diving on Wall Street, plunging more than 350 points at one time, as another broad sell-off continues with investors worried about an economic slowdown........Fox news 1.52 EST
Any forecast for SENSEX... How is it going to fare
122 comments:
Major Indian banks have exposure to Noida mess upto 1500 crores. Banks will soon see their profits decline.
And this is just the beginning. A major downfall in entire RE market is coming. People who get their money back will get back only the white component and the black money component builders will not return as nothing is on paper.
What a Bullshit. Do you think every buyer will go and file RTI. An average joe is expected to act as an lawyer?
Tell me a single case in RE has been filed and won. Adarsh? So many properties over years are build on forest land, slums are build by slumlords and then over period slumlord owns it indirectly. Want to goto court and fight... sure go ahead, may be your grandchildren have time to listen to ruling that might not be in favor because files are missing.
I say whole India is a mess. What to do about it.
"==>", suggest you to take a break, you can't be adding your comments to each post, you bring zero value with you crap comments. I do tend to not read your posts, but then you seem to be filling up more than the blogger. Give us a break!
==> RE downfall is coming and it will be very bad. Builders will have to return the money and probably buildings will be demolished in Noida unless they pay a substantial amount to farmers, which means less profits for builders and banks gets screwed. If they don't pay, the buildings will be grounded.
Don't be too optimistic about corruption in India. Adarsh scam artists will be behind the bars soon. Believe in judiciary. Everyone is not a thief. Many people have high morals and are people of honor.
If US debt is downgraded, India is toast. The party is definitely over and a long term recession is coming to India.
Real estate sale registrations in Mumbai hit 24-month low
In the present market conditions, developers in Mumbai are more open to negotiation in the premium segment. They have been offering discounts that range between 15-20% in favour of a sizeable up-front payment.
Real-estate experts believe that in the coming months, the tight liquidity conditions, increasing inventories, rising interest rates, and construction costs should eventually tip the scales in the buyers' favour.
Sailesh bhayya,
I hears this for the last few years but price is rising. It look to me the builders publising news to keep people quiet and not go after politican about their problem.
Our peoples in andheri, jogeswari, goregon getting threat from shiv sena, raj thakre, dawood ibrahim, chotta bhai people, pujari people, corporator to leave and go to bihar or up leaving our milk busness. They offers not market value but little money. Thet want to make more building because there is demand.
Price no go down definite
Anon 11:44
Do you own Land in Western Suburbs?
The corruption and Mafia elements are part of Mumbai Builder culture. One can not get away from that.
Mumbai ees going under water soon. Ef prizes dont drrop zen sea level rize with global warming. Either way homeowners will be under water soon.
Went house hunting in Bangalore last weekend. In one bldg. found two properties (1.5 cr/ 1.1 cr) in nice area that are foreclosed by banks.
I found same US based NRI owner defaulted on both, now, bank is scrambling to sell. I wonder if this is an exception or many such properties are going to hit the market soon?!
BLR_homeless
SALES may go down in India but PRICES never go down in India. I have visited this blog for the past three years and every time there are doom and gloom stories about collapsing SALES…during a period where House prices have essentially tripled.
The fact of the matter is Indians have quietly grown extraordinarily wealthy over the past decade due to their prudent accumulation of Gold. The price of Gold has more than quintupled from 2002 ($250 per ounce) till present day ($1600 per ounce). Given that few Indians save in Rupees and the overwhelming lot save in Gold, this means that HOUSEHOLD WEALTH HAS MORE THAN QUINTIPLED OVER THE PAST DECADE.
If you are wondering where Indians get the money to afford 1 Crore apartments and 4 Crore houses, look no further than their bank safety deposit boxes. Indians are able to outbid each other because they have massively valuable gold savings to fall back on.
To those who say this is all a bubble because house prices have gone up exponentially since 2004-05, look at what Gold prices have done during the same period, and you will find the reason there.
There will be no real estate crash unless INR strengthens relative to Gold. The only way there will be a correction in Indian RE is when INR strengthens considerably in REAL terms accompanied by an increase in real interest rates.
You cannot have the INR go down and prices falling at the same time. If that happens, then NRI’s (for whom the effect of the crash will be magnified due to their forex savings) will plough money into Indian RE thus providing a solid floor to any correction. Further, Indians will also be suddenly able to afford more RE because the value of their Gold savings became much more valuable in INR terms.
Anon above:
You have to look at it at macro level. You are now in globalized world.
--Gold: It is up because of the RE bubble in US which has caused massive USD printing. Investors are trying to hold gold instead of paper currencies. All the G-20 nations also started printing equivalent money and gold further went up. Not only gold, all the precious metals. Right now 3 times more gold has been sold in the world than it is physically available.
India doesn't control anything. Neither the price of Gold, Oil or USD. I think all what is happening is too good to be true. Once the fall begins and it would eventually, it would take down all your high spirits and optimism about India.
What happens if:
--US debt ceiling is delayed. It will eventually pass but could be delayed.
--RE bubble in China really bursts and it takes down Australia with it.
--EU countries like Spain and Italy eventually default.
--Outsourcing slows or per hour rates are reduced for body shoppers.
You should understand the fact that the crisis EU or US is seeing is because of RE/credit bubbles they had 3-4 years ago. When it burst, you can see the present. It has yet to burst in many countries and you can see what may happen once it happens.
Easy credit and money created from thin air doesn't last for long.
If you are too optimistic, buy some more RE in India and enjoy the unfolding drama.
http://www.futuresbuzz.com/cottonlt.html
This is the cotton chart, the gold chart will look like this too, just fast forward 2 years.
Some news from down under. The credit bubble is turning. And they have home prices go up by merely 70-80% over the last 6-7 years. Prices here in India have tripled or more.
http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/07/bulls-at-sea-in-falling-market/
BTW, http://macrobusiness.com.au/category/australian-housing-bubble/
is a pretty good blog with lots of data and analysis.
I wish we had such data here rather than having to rely on anecdotal stuff.
Anon @5:25
Very righlty said. India doesn't control any of the commodity prices or precious metals or even currencies.
I think people have been buying and selling RE to each other without any added value due to easy credit and printed money by GOI. Drama is definitely unfolding.
RE prices are high because investors are flipping properties. THey can bid on a peice of land, pay a deposit of 30%, with deal to pay the rest of the money in 4 - 6 months. Thhen immediately ask another broker to sell the property for 15-20% of their purchase price. The sell the property again in 4 months, pay the original seller his balance and pockets a 40-50% gain on their initial cash outlay. THen they begin again. I know a person who did this in the US and is now bankrupt. Similar things will happen to flippers in India and RE will go back to its mean
@Anon 7:33 AM
Agreed India doesn't control commodity prices, but then who controls commodity prices, precious metals prices, currencies? Who controls real estate prices?
Answer: buyers and sellers. Market.
JP MORGAN CHASE AND GOLDMAN SACHS.THEY CONTROL COMMODITY PRICES AND STOCK MARKETS.THEY ARE LOOSING CONTROL DUE TO ONGOING BANKRUPTCY OF THE WESTERN WORLD.
I agrees with Anon 7:33. There are many buyer who has money but not used to filat. They likes like chawl or house near tabela. My chacha has some tabela in jogeswari. He has more than 100 corore rupia and has300-400 peoples work for him. He live in chawl near tabela. his children (my cosins) buy many filats in goregon, malad and jogeswari, kandivli. each filat more than 1 crore. They gives this for rent. As soon new filat come, they buys.
when buyer there, why filat price come down ?
sure your chacha can buy all of Jogeshwari pretty soon. What does he do all day, anyways! Scratching his balls....
your chacha is mexing dudh with paani, and keeping all money in bilack. He cheats akha jogeshwari, goregoan, kadivili and malad with his dudh supply; and cheating bharat mata government with his bilack money because he no tay tax..
Pretty soon he will find out the builder made your chacha a big ch*tia, because builder put sand in the concrete..and building falling down...then your chacha will find out that the banks made the builder a ch*tia by crashing the RE market. Then your chacha will be taking his bilack cow and his tabela back to beehar...
Astalavista chacha...
Anon above:
You are funny but it is all true. It is coming to all these chachas soon.
I wonder what would happen when India's debt situation gets really ugly. Not many people are aware that India has more debt unlike the failing countries like Greece, Spain etc. and like USA now.
It could take down all the ongoing party in India to the toilet in a second.
Before India watch the Ausssie and Canadian downfall. India's fall is also coming soon for the RE bubble to burst.
I wonder what would happen when India's debt situation gets really ugly. Not many people are aware that India has more debt unlike the failing countries like Greece, Spain etc. and like USA now
With one main difference, most of the debt is owed internally to people of India and plus we have 35% saving which GOI can steal anytime with Inflation. Plus GOI has $500B worth of industries which can sell anytime and fill the deficits. Given this, comparatively, India is in a much better position.
As I said in my earlier post (12:53), as long as the world is willing to transfer purchasing power from paper currency to Gold (a trend that seems to be set to continue for the next decade at least), India will boom and suffer (or benefit – depending on your perspective) from very high asset prices in all asset classes. This is because Indians have vast reserves of Gold which they have meticulously saved over the past decades. Indians have quietly become vastly wealthy as a result owing to the net increase in gold prices over the past decade.
As long as Gold booms, prices of pretty much everything (from RE to equities to chicken biriyani) will boom in India because real household wealth has considerably risen due to the rise of gold prices.
RE values may correct, but only when measured in Gold, not when priced in Rupees.
As long as Gold booms, prices of pretty much everything (from RE to equities to chicken biriyani) will boom in India because real household wealth has considerably risen due to the rise of gold prices.
Bullshit! Who sells gold to buy chicken biryani? If you have 10 Rs in your pocket, 1000 Rs in your bank and 1Kg gold in your bank locker (or a 1 crore aptt.), would you want to pay more for your chicken?
Rising asset values will not cause your disposable income to go up. In fact, people who don't own these very assets will start demanding more for their goods/services because ultimately they also want to own a house/gold and consequently your cost of maintaining your assets will go up.
At current land prices, everyone in Delhi is a crorepati but then you should watch them queue at CNG stations for half an hour each day and haggle with bhajiwallahs for 5 Rs discount and you will know the real worth of these crorepatis.
I agree with Pawan.
Let me quote Syrus (Love His Quotes)
"Everything is worth what its purchaser will pay for it."
So if u have a 1 cr flat but no buyers.. :)
Patience is a virtue. so wait and watch. Prices have no other option but to come down.
I see a lot of comments linking RE to inflation, RE can get de-linked from inflation pretty quickly, it's happened many a times before and will happen again.
An Apartment has value only if you have a proper job, in the absence of industry a city is the worst place to live in.
Gold and Farmland are better linked to very high inflation(stagflation) IMO, just look at history.
"RE can get de-linked from inflation pretty quickly, it's happened many a times before and will happen again."
Very true. As inflation rises, interest rates will rise. Secondly, people will have lesser disposable income and also incentive to save, which means banks lending will slow down. No other industry is as dependent on credit as is the RE industry. Without flow of credit, prices will fall steeply.
In fact, contrary to popular opinion, RE is a poor asset class during high/hyper inflation. Do you really see people running around to buy homes/land in Zimbabwe? Besides, banks dont have anything to lend. All the cash is taken out and spent on daily goods. In a hyperinflationary economy, when you get your salary, you run to the grocery store and buy whatever you can (if the store is not empty already).
Gold and probably the dollar (questionable in these times:) are your only protection.
Neither INR nor Gold nor US$ have any meaning - the real economy runs on demand and supply - real goods and services
ON the demand size us cockroach like breeding Indians have no shortage. That is not stopping anytime soon - look at UP and Bihar they together have more population than entire United States. - It will take 100-150 years for them to come out of poverty.
On the supply side - look at quality - good quality builders and good neighborhoods will maintain their price (in USD GLD or INR).
On Gold - The rich and powerful nations will never let Gold become the currency (remember during the great depression Roosevelt confiscated all Gold and banned gold as exchange medium). The same will happen this time.
The ideal strategy would be to have one hedge (gold/retirement) and spend the rest to enjoy your life- rent if possible, buy that car, take that foreign trip, go to that concert, get that XBOX and 46 inch TV and live your life. Focus on making society better. That is a much better investment of your time and resources than parking monies inside the same corrupt realty system that you want to reform. Even all investment products are a scam by the same banksters who are controlling RE and commodity prices fudging the real demand supply
If you pinch every penny to buy some worthless piece of property that would need 2 hours commute and that you can barely afford you are lame - you might as well throw that money in the drain. You will lose both your lifetime and your savings and then you will wait for your kids to achieve the stuff you missed.
Only a war or catastrophe will break the present nexus.
During troubled times, gold and guns are the only hedge - India doesn't allow you to buy guns so we are all screwed
septic ghost
you are racest pig. because of up bihar mumbai runnibg, we works hard and we hear bad word from gandu like you ?. who is your father ? yoy know ?
"In fact, contrary to popular opinion, RE is a poor asset class during high/hyper inflation."
True. But rent correlates better with inflation.
Rents can rise a lot in inflation and in stagflation you can lose your job.
In own home you can at least live rent free.
So if you have the money, buy a flat with a third of your net worth in case of bad times. SO if you have a crore, spend 30L on a flat.
It is one of the few appreciating assets and you wont regret the purchase. Buy a little gold as well in addition to stocks and FDs.
But if you have 30L and spend 1 crore on a flat by taking a loan - GOd help you, you are a moron.
"So if you have the money, buy a flat with a third of your net worth in case of bad times. SO if you have a crore, spend 30L on a flat"
Very true, don't buy a house on loan, worst decision you can make ever, people talk about hedging against risks while putting money in stock markets, how much sense does it make to put all your current and future money on one house !!
Another 0.5% hike by RBI. Further pressure on EMIs. wonder what kind of compromises people have to do so that they can pay the increased sums in addition to the high food inflation.
So if you have the money, buy a flat with a third of your net worth in case of bad times. SO if you have a crore, spend 30L on a flat.
It doesn't work that way. If you have 1 crore, you would want to probably live in a bigger house worth 2.5 Cr with all the luxurious amenities than settling in a small 2BHK apartment.
you would """"want""" to probably live in a bigger house.
Thats not want, that is greed.
What you "want" is not what you need.
It is unfortunate that in our country the greedy prosper and the needy will for ever remain needy
you would """"want""" to probably live in a bigger house.
Thats not want, that is greed.
What you "want" is not what you need.
It is unfortunate that in our country the greedy prosper and the needy will for ever remain needy
Home buyers refrain from purchase, builders raise prices
The interest rate is rising; sales volumes and registrations are dwindling; home buyers are running shy; and just when everyone expects builders to drop prices, they go and do just the opposite.
A handful of leading developers have hiked the rates at their ongoing projects by 10-20% in the past fortnight, even as others are holding on to their prices despite the adverse market conditions.
The trend of firming prices is visible not only in Mumbai and Thane but also in other neighbouring locations like Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli and Vasai-Virar.
“Good quality apartments in prime areas are in high demand and always command a premium,” says Devang Trivedi, managing director, Progressive Group, adding that both genuine buyers and investors are flush with funds and always willing to pay a premium. On its part, Progressive has hiked the rates at all its projects in Navi Mumbai by 10-15% in the past one month.
Industry observers feel that the move is also a strategic one to break the current stalemate. “For instance, BMC’s new DCR rules that govern FSI premium have not even been drawn and developers are already talking about the prices of houses shooting up by 20%.
The idea is to create a sense of panic among home buyers who have been patiently waiting for prices to rationalise and, once the buyers blink, the builders can go ahead and roll out another round of hike in real-estate prices,” says a senior partner at an MNC consultancy.
‘Affordable housing is not possible in Mumbai or Delhi’
VS: Affordable housing also means housing that is attainable. I don't see the poor people from Mumbai or Delhi ever attaining that level when they can own a house. To reduce the cost, one must stay on the outskirts, and poor people have to live further away. The cost of transportation will affect them. Where land is so scarce and so costly, there is no question of community-based living. It will remain a distant dream.
More Mumbaikars now prefer to stay on rent
MUMBAI: Developers proposing a property hike may well do a rethink. With no visible signs of a meaningful correction in property prices making affordability a major correction, there is a growing trend of people preferring to stay on rent in Mumbai.
Since December 2010, lease agreements have increased by 20% to touch a new high of 10,191 in June 2011. In June 2009, 7,592 documents were registered, while in June 2010, 9,195 documents were registered with the stamp duty and registration department. In February 2011, Mumbai saw 8,055 agreements, compared to 6,704 in February 2010, according to a report by equity brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher, quoting the director general of registrations.
Ramesh Nair, JLL managing director (west India), said rent was a preferred option. "Yield income has fallen to 3%. Considering one gets 9% interest on parking the money in the bank, buyers are not interested in purchasing a flat at such high rates, especially when the rental income will barely be able to cover their monthly EMIs,'' said Nair.
Boman Irani, Keystone Group MD, and Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry secretary, said there was no reason for concern. "Sales are always slow during the rains. In fact, sales dropped 2-4%. With regards to property prices, rates are a factor to demand and supply. If approvals are delayed, supply will be constrained. Prices will automatically rise. The civic chief is making efforts to streamline the system, we hope projects will be approved at the earliest.''
Residential property prices in Mumbai could fall 10-15 per cent, say experts
The slowdown in activity in the property market, rising interest rates and costs of construction are felt by property developers and home sellers. “I have a two bedroom apartment in central Mumbai; it’s a very nice building with a garden and a gym. I put it on the market three months ago and haven’t received a single inquiry,” said Rajesh Jogani, a Mumbai based real estate investor.
Any new news on Noida mess, hope files didn't go missing on this one too just like Adarsh blg.
Looks like people will brush off 0.5% hike just like they had done it for earlier hikes. I doubt EMI pinches the cash rich class buying crores worth of real estate. They will keep buying and no change for people who couldn't afford earlier, cannot afford now and cannot afford in future.
Is your Noida flat safe?
shailesh bhai...Is your Noida flat safe?
yes it is. this media was simply was skipping answers the real questions.
India hai. solution is always is to throw biscuts at hungry dogs. Where the law, penalties. Wrong was already done, where is the punishment.
Jai Hind.
Anon 1:19
The issue is "Yeh to India hain".
Builders are not in trouble. They have no reason to compromise and pay more to farmers. If building gets delayed, they don't stand to loose. There is no re-course to buyers.
I have seen many such issues that have lingered on not fore few months but many years. We have basically no consumer protection. I will tell you, this will go ultimately till PM, who is in-effective. I think the buyers have been fooled and will remain in fool for long. If I was buyer, I would take my money and run, if that was possible.
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/up-land-mine-is-set-to-blow-up-in-mayawatis-face-48756.html?utm_source=MC_HOME
Earlier I was thinking investors will get scared, after this news, and will feel bit relaxed, if they get their money back from builders.
However, I was wrong. I was surprised to know that these INVESTORS don't want their money back but want only flats.
And why not, the flat which they bought at 15 lacs is not today is of 45 lacs (though it is bubble), why investor will go for a loss??? So this is height of GREEDINESS from investors of Noida extension. Their greediness in turn causing bubble in real estate market, and adversely affecting the actual buyers and end users.
RBI-massage-to-developers-Cut-rates
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/RBI-massage-to-developers-Cut-rates/articleshow/9376640.cms
@Anon above:
RBI giving mAssages.. that is great. When did they move out from banking to giving massages. That must be huge SPA.
Jai Hind.
RBI Hike in Key Rates will Lead to Rise in Property Prices: CREDAI
http://www.indianrealtynews.com/real-estate-india/rbi-hike-in-key-rates-will-lead-to-rise-in-property-prices-credai.html
So when interest rates are low RE prices go up and when interest rates are hiked, RE prices again go up !!
What the fucked up fundamentals.
@anon
when interest rates are low RE prices go up and when interest rates are hiked, RE prices again go up !!
For builders, the compulsion to keep raising prices is akin to that of riding a tiger. If you get down from the tiger, it will kill and eat you up.
Today, majority of expensive (read high margin, high profit) RE is being lapped up by investors only since it is already out of reach for most real buyers. The moment these investors see a downtick, they will run away from RE this puncturing the whole bubble. Therefore builders have no option but to keep increasing the price. Let the party continue...
Builders will lower the prices very moderately and not much. The major downfall will come from NPAs and other effects to the economy in view of the overall global economy. Easy money is soon going away and it would be hard to get credit. Next will be salary cuts in wake of strengthening Rupee.
In US, builders still sell high priced houses but the NPAs in US is so high, builders are not able to sell their stuff as earlier. There are morons in US also who want new houses and end up paying twice the price. Banks sell the houses for almost half the street prices.
Finally, Brazil's bubble is deflating big time. The country is imposing strict policies to pop its RE bubble. They have the same story as India, too much FDI (which is declining unlike India), RE prices rose 300-400% in the past 3-5 years, stock market massively overvalued. Google the info in its slowdown.
We Indians should get prepared for the downfall here in India. I'm selling all my RE and going short on stocks. Maybe in the next 3-5 months, things may really slow down. I hope my job stays as I work in a private company and they don't do layoffs. I'm thinking of my father who always used to say "Sarkari naukri" try karo. And I did pass the IES exams but stayed in private sector to become rich quicker.
Please don’t post stories here about declining sales. If there are any stories about declining PRICES (as in someone has been able to buy a house at a significant discount), then please post that.
What? Don’t have any such stories?
Didn’t think so.
anon above:
You are missing the point. It hurts buyers pride and intent if they say bought flat and price has declined. If they buy for less price they don't want to declare the same because of neighbors envy and wrath.
Seller, Bankers, builders, and investors - they are never interested and hurts their pockets to say real estate is in decline.
Only sources remains are news media and information blogs. But again these are biased and news what 'someone' said.
No wonder you will NEVER hear stories.... use your god given brain, apply valuation and fundamentals to understand real story.
If one crore flats are bought and sold as if buying muli-sabji then worth of rupees is worth muli-sabji.
Anon above, you are correct that people who buy low do not disclose.
I put my flat for sale in Gurgaon. People said you can get 90 lacs for it. I gave it to a realtor an deven after 3 months, no response. I needed the money and I reduced the price to 85 then 80. Still no response as per the realtor. I changed the agent, still no response. Fianlly priced it at 70 lacs. Many people came to see but most were needing loans and no final deal was done. Finally, the second agent brought another agent who said he would buy it from me for 65lacs. He wanted to buy at 65 and sell it for 80-90lacs in the market. I told him fine. He is ready to make money available by cheque and let's see if the deal goes through.
Moral: Do not believe what the prices untill you find a buyer. It is highly likely that the agen buying from me would make 5 lacs on it by reselling it but I didn't want the headache and didn't want to wait. Prices are indeed falling as there are less and less buyers and more expensive to get loans.
@Pawan,
"Today, majority of expensive (read high margin, high profit) RE is being lapped up by investors only"
I wish we had some hard data on this. But from the little anecdotal evidence that I have, I would tend to agree. I know some of my NRI relatives who have bought homes here for investment.
One sign of a bubble is when people buy an asset merely in the hope of capital appreciation without really worrying about the income that it generates. This certainly seems to be true in case of luxury homes (70L+) where rental yields are very low. This is fine if people have priced in higher rents in the future.
But with signs that the economy is slowing down, jobs and wage growth will moderate and rents may not grow at expected levels.
@Anon 8:27
If you want to sell your house in Gurgaon then I am interested. You may message me on my mail ID.
Regards.
@Polt
I wish we had some hard data on this.
We do have hard data. The amount of FDI money in RE has grown 80 times in 5 years (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-08-22/india-business/28305620_1_city-and-regional-level-real-estate-fdi).
Earlier these people were buying RE stocks but now they directly invest in a project. They buy substantial stake in a project early so that builder's cost is recovered and he is happy too. Then they sell it to customers for a 50% return in 2 years time as the project is nearing completion. If you don't call them investors, who else would you?
These PE funds have money from rich foreigners, NRIs and all the corrupt politician's money and most of these funds are based in tax-havens like Mauritius.
When we talk of investors, we should remember that individual investors cannot move the market. Just as in case of stock markets where FIIs run the show, in case of RE the PE/FDI guys are directing everything.
The main issue with housing is lack of simple and legal way to convert agriculture land to residential land. India does not lack land. We have huge amount of it. In fact about half of India is not even arable, but it is classified as agriculture land. But the challenge is as cities are expanding or new ones are coming up, this land needs to be converted to residential. The process to convert to residential is very complex and corrupt.
We had 8 acre plot in Gujarat which we tried to convert to residential. The process is so bad and filled with all bureaucrats needing something out of it. It took us really long time to get that conversion done. Once done, construction was piece of cake. In fact I think our construction cost was about Rs 700 per sq ft for I would say Grade B type setup.
All government has to do is simplify this process and make it single window clearance for such application. The artificial land shortage, and hence increase premium on price, will disappear immediately.
@Shailesh
Why would the govt simplify the process? It is a big income earner (black money generator) for the authorities. Everyone from the peon upwards till ministers is on the take from converting A land to NA land. The same money goes into politicians "party funds". I have seen semi-literate people working in these 7/12 land records offices become multi millionaires (black) due to all these zoning and other regulations.The really powerful politicos do not care about these paper regulations anyway-they simply occupy govt land with slums, create vote banks and come to power and then stay there. They do not care two cents about any middle class people. Why should they anyway? You are not their gravy train
yeah right...
who wud care for them when these politicians die? even god wont care and will let them rot in hell.
so much for their life on earth.
makes me laugh when people earn money the illegal way, become rich, become proud n die one day :)
Just for some measly 50 years of lavish life of earth, they rot eternally in hell.
Ah.. if only they could understand the real meaning of LIFE
Blessed are those who do not sell their soul for they shall receive the kingdom of God.
Anon above,
Not just politicians but many other people all over the world. Somehow Indians have very less ethics and are more corrupt. I would say that people who cheat don't even enjoy the stolen money for 20-30 years max and not 50 years. And their kids blow it away and get bad habits. Most people I've known who took bribes etc. Died early in life. Either due to their bad drinking habits or their bad karma.
Enjoy your life and family. Do not run after money. Have enough to be happy and work sincerely. I never even buy a lottery ticket as I,m happy with my job and not need too much.
yeah thats how it shud be.
we are in this world to do good not to become rich.
if you work honestly, sincerely n dedicated you always become rich.
If you do not get the results that you want.. dont be frustated. Be happy since you have tried your best :)
God always helps those who help themselves.
Always learn to say NO to bad tempatations and YES to honesty.
However hard it may be.
Here are a few random thoughts:
1. Exactly when has the middle class Joe Blow been able to afford a house in India? Job descriptions may have changed over the years: professions such as teacher, office superintendent or bank teller may have been replaced by computer programmers, call centre attendant or system administrator but their relative status (lodged solidly in the middle-class hierarchy in a country renown for its wealth disparities) has not changed. So here’s my question again: When in the past 60 years has the average man on the street been easily able to afford a house in India?
2. If housing has to correct, then INR has to dramatically increase. The reverse cannot be true (if INR falls AND housing corrects at the same time, then NRIs will rush in to buy RE, thus placing a solid floor on any correction). So under what circumstance do you think the RBI will let INR rise to meaningful levels? I note that all the interest rate increases in the recent past has not budged USD/INR which stubbornly bumps along around the 45 INR mark. India is doing exactly what China is doing: raising interest rates while printing tons of currency to keep the Yuan pegged to the collapsing USD. Asset price corrections are near impossible under such circumstances. Massive interest rate increases have done NOTHING to dent RE price levels in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Shanghai, Beijing or Guanghou. Both China and India have housing bubbles because of their fiscal and monetary policies. Unless those policies change, people will flee to hard assets such as RE.
3. One of the reasons for high RE in India is that the average Indian investor does not have a lot of alternative asset classes to chose from where he can invest money because of the non-convertibility of INR. Indians cannot easily invest in (say) Mongolian equities or London RE because of these restrictions. If Indians have to sell Indian RE en masse (and that creates a correction), where else do you think they will park their money? In the fast-wilting INR? Sorry but Indians are not that stupid. Where you have a failing currency, real assets will always be priced highly in such places. House prices never meaningfully correct when measured in local currency terms in places with exploding populations and weak currencies. Don’t take my word for it. Just ask the people of Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan, Angola, Vietnam when their RE prices last corrected WHEN MEASURED IN THEIR LOCAL CURRENCIES. You will get blank stares in response.
4. Gold prices reach a record high day after day after day. Indians have amassed massive reserves of Gold that they can rely on to fund any increase to EMI payments (even if interest rates reach stratospheric levels). There is zero chance of the levels of mass foreclosures and defaults seen in the US in India which triggered a housing collapse. Indians have substantial private savings in Gold unlike spendthrift Americans, British or Spaniards.
The bottom line is that as long as the Rupee remains a structurally weak currency, RE will remain strong when measured in Rupees simply because there are no other reasonable inflation hedges for the average Indian. RE may correct, but only when measured in CHF or SGD, not when measured in INR.
anon above, does that mean real estate in India will never correct? will people keep affording and buying unaffordable housing?
last question: where and how will current and future buyers afford this... they cannot print money at their home. I am not saying that everyone would be able to afford... I am saying 90% of the mass currently cannot afford. Also in past people had choice to move out to different city for affordable housing... but this real estate craze is all over India, infact all over Asian countries.
Sometimes I feel like let dollar devalue and see if our proud India has balls to devalue their currency too.
Realty market sluggish in Mumbai, worrying in NCR, but steady in the south
From an interaction Motilal Oswal Securities (MOSL) analysts had with real estate agents, they found that sales volumes in Mumbai are weak and plummeting in the National Capital Region, but they are largely stable in Bengaluru and Chennai, with a limited impact on the increasing mortgage rates.
Anuj Puri, chairman and country head, Jones Lang LaSalle India, argues that "Purchasing activity has already dropped visibly during the last tranche of interest rate hikes, and we will see a further drop in buyer interest now. As for developers coming down on their prices to counter the negative effects of this hike, a lot will depend on the financial ability of individual developers to hold on to their current pricing and risk losing sales till the situation improves. Developers with enough capital base are less likely to relent on their pricing, than smaller developers with an urgent need to sell their stock."
@anon - "RE may correct, but only when measured in CHF or SGD, not when measured in INR."
One can make two statements.
One, real estate is not overvalued currently and therefore is a good hedge against inflation.
Second, real estate is overvalued, but still remains a good hedge against inflation.
I am assuming you are making the second statement. I disagree with the inflation hedge part. Monetization of debt (printing money) will not prevent mean reversion and will not prevent real and quite possibly nominal losses.
For example - Gold often considered the best hedge is still trading below its 1980 value in real terms.
Besides, give our central bankers some credit. If they really were so tolerant of inflation, would they be tightening the interest rate screws faster than any other bank in the world? And that too in the face of vociferous opposition from industry and home owners.
And more rate hikes are expected. Hardly the sign of a despotic Zimbabwe style regime as many on this post seem to imply.
>Exactly when has the middle class Joe Blow been able to afford a house in India?
True. But what is the affordability range for Joe today? Experts say 40-60L is the sweet spot. which means a range of 60-80 will be beyond the average Joe. Currently the range is ruling at 80-120 Lakh.
I am not in the camp that says RE will crash. I am saying in near-term a 20% correction in nominal terms is expected and well-deserved. 10 years later we may be 50% down in real-terms.
True. But what is the affordability range for Joe today? Experts say 40-60L is the sweet spot. which means a range of 60-80 will be beyond the average Joe. Currently the range is ruling at 80-120 Lakh.
==> 40-60L was and is still unaffordable for "average Joe". Cheap credit and cheap tricks gives illusion of affordability. It must be sweet spot for investors that have accumulated RE and created artificial demand.
I agree with your post when replaced "average Joe" with "average investors". Now average investors are backing out at 80 to 120 Lakh segment. Watch out now as big players are getting pinched.
Also, I don't want to get personal, you seem to be investor.
EMI Rs. 46,321 per month. Affordable?
Interest Rate Annual: 10.00%
Tenure (months): 240 months /20 years
Purchase Price: 6,000,000.00
Down Payment: -1,200,000.00 (20.00%)
Loan Amount: 4,800,000.00
EMI: 46,321.04
I can't wait interest rates to rise in West - USA, just 2% more and sweet will be utterly bad taste, especially for Asian market.
@==>
Bhayya, where can you gets a flat for 60 lakhwa in mumbai city. Please give me address and i am ready to pay all money is cash.
60 lakhwa days are gone. You wont even get zopda for this money
fozert
Bhayya, where can you gets a flat for 60 lakhwa in mumbai city. Please give me address and i am ready to pay all money is cash.
60 lakhwa days are gone. You wont even get zopda for this money
==> great. then what stops you from buying 1+ crore house? put 60 lakhs downpayment and rest 40 lakhs of loan which I am sure any bank will be happy to lend you. Ofcourse you must have capability to pay EMI.
are you still here? (tuought you must have rushed to buy house by now, as you don't want to miss the plane)
BTW, I never said 60 lakhs flats are available. and if they are, they all are 1 BHK in suburbs.
==>
Also, I don't want to get personal, you seem to be investor.
Doesn't matter for the sake of discussion on this forum but I am not an investor. I am a guy who wants to buy a good house to live in but is not too keen to pay the price being asked for.
If you are buying a house in the short term with your loose cash then go ahead and do it, no one's stopping you.
But if you are looking at 15-20 year timeline and looking towards a comfy retirement with your savings, it's far better to invest in farmland in a place that still has water left. In the long run that's the only thing that will work. Don't worry about this economic theory, RBI and all that shit.
When people start running out of resources I doubt the wads of cash and coins of gold are going to help. The water scarcity in North India is already visible from space, I wonder how long this thing will keep evolving.
Just got this on another site
"That’s because gold is a great store of value—except when it’s not. Had you become fed up with the inflation of the Jimmy Carter years and moved your savings to gold in 1980, you would have watched your “store of value” fall by 70% in the two decades that followed. And this would have happened during a period of persistent (though falling) inflation."
Just looked at gold chart(2000-2011) and its crazy. the chart starts like a slum and ends like a highrise
Makes me happy to know that
"Humpty dumpty will have a great fall" :)
Humpty = gold
dumpty = real estate
"All the kings men and soldiers couldnt put him together :)"
So right.
I see light at the end of the tunnel.
Hey Nashik classified's is a free website where you can post your advertisement and business promotions for free...
Very good advice by Anonymous Bhayya 8:35
Buy land is better than filat in city. I bought 60 bigha (30 acre) land near bijnour for 25 Lakhwa. We dont strust raj thakre, so better make ready to go from mumbai shahariya
One more video,
Broken Homes Segment 2
Let the fun begin....
Villagers' list of new demands
Compensation on par with rate at which land was allotted by Greater Noida Authority to builders. In Noida Extension area, land was allotted to builders at Rs 10,000-12,000 per sqm. Farmers say since the authority works on a no-profit, no-loss basis, it should not have problems giving this rate to farmers.
For land acquired from farmers and on which the authority built public facilities such as roads, sewers, parks etc, it should give compensation at the prevalent market rate. Farmers say this is necessary to neutralise the loss from the illegal sale of 60 acres of community land (gram panchayat land) in Patwadi to builders.
17.5 per cent of the total number of flats being built by builders should be reserved for farmers. If they are not allotted these flats, cash equivalent to the cost of these 17.5 per cent flats should be given to farmers.
The Noida Authority has promised to give every farmer a plot in a developed sector six per cent the size of the land acquired from them. Farmers now want this figure raised to 10 per cent and stamp duty done away with.
Farmers want the Noida Authority to return abadi (inhabited) land to them and restore their full ownership over such land, abolishing the authority's practice of leasing such land to farmers.
30 per cent job quota in industries, IT and fashion institutions.
Plus, 30 per cent quota in admissions in all primary and senior secondary education institutes apart from 30 per cent fees waiver on their children.
The party is ending in Australia. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/08/new-housing-sales-tank/
Could we be next? Growth rates are being revised downwards here. Inflation is expected to be high (ie expect rates to increase further).
Yaaro, RE party een Hindustan ez ending (Khattam ho raha hai - for the short term). All drunks will be dead in their "nasha". "Pilane wale" (Banks, PE, etc) ees selling emerging markets and moving into Dollars, Francs, Gold, etc. for short term. Foolish eenvestors are holding on (will get rammed).
QE's es not doing crap to any economy as u c today markets moved down en wake of new QE. As soon as USD ees downgraded, which will be very soon, all USD parked overseas ($2T or more by US corporations and $2T or more by private/institutional holders)will hit the shores of US or move eento safer currencies (any left? maybe the SWEES FRANC) or commodities or Multinational stocks in US. Thees will create ze next beeg bull run in US equities in the next 2 years.
So eef you are eenvestor, find beegger "bakra" (greater fool) to unload your assets. Eef you are a new buyer/end user have patience. It ees not "end of world".
Mark my words, beeg time Enflation cominng to USA soon and it will keell emerging markets.
THE OTHER BIHARI.....
India May See Worst Growth Since Credit Crisis: Economist
"Clear signs of slowdown have emerged over the last 3-4 months," Chetan Ahya, an economist at the bank said in a report. Morgan Stanley cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2012 to 7.2 percent from 7.7 percent. That's far below the government's forecast for growth of 8.2 percent for the current fiscal year.
In last few quarters
The real estate index has corrected nearly 37% over the last one year. The real estate market is hanging on a sword edge with multiple triggers slowing the market down. BSE Realty Index
Not only buyers, but even the real estate companies are also in troubled waters. Cost of funds for developers ranges anywhere in the range of 14.5% to 16%, depending on the credibility of the borrower. The rate hike is only making it more expensive. Also the banks have not been willing to lend to the real estate sector in the recent past.
The Reserve Bank of India has laid out strict and tedious due diligence standards for banks in sanctioning loans to the real estate sector. The banks have to verify the documents, including cross verification with the local administration, to ensure that frauds are eliminated.
Does anyone else feel that "decoupling" was a myth? We only sailed through the recession because of all the QE cash coming our way. In the process, we only managed to push our problems down the road.
Now it will our (and China's and Australias) turn for the post-party hangover.
@polt
decoupling
I read in a report that Sensex companies now earn 25-30% of their income from overseas operations (Europe, America, Japan, Africa etc).
If condition become bad and 1/3rd of this income is lost but the domestic scenario remains good then the overall effect on earnings will only be 10%. So yes we are still decoupled.
However, it was noted in the 2008 period that even rich people whose income had not been affected in 2008 also cut down on spending.
A 10% cut in real earnings can cause a correction of 30% in stock markets easily.
Then there is a case of pushing the demand forward/back. If interest rates are low, you may want to buy that new car a year earlier. If interest rates are high, you may push that demand ahead by one year. This also affects earnings.
Unfortunately, RE seems unfazed by all this. In Gurgaon at least, no one is willing to cut prices irrespective of whether sales are happening or not.
O Just who will blink first..... must read. http://www.firstpost.com/business/wholl-blink-first-in-mumbai-home-buyers-or-builders-52499.html?utm_source=MC_HOME_WIDGET
when home prices become untenable and interest rates are going to only rise in the future, it's not a question of choice. Buyers have no choice. They just cannot buy, if they do they will be indentured slaves and even then may lose everything.
So buyers will continue to rent. They will continue to do so until the prices become no-brainers..and even then they will wait for prices to drop further. Sorry, builders, but that's just reality. You folks (builders) are in denial!
What is the first thought that comes to many Indian's mind on hearing word 'Real Estate'?
90 out of 100 buyers in Indian are buying real estate with this thought.
India's RE is going to take a massive hit in the next few months. Some of the reasons being:
--RBI increasing interest rates and will increase more as inflation is still very high.
--Political turmoil in India brewing.
--Europe is going further in the toilet. Italy is next to default.
--USA growth is very slow. Many contracts are going to be cancelled to Indian IT companies and rates lowered.
--USD weakening will cause India's exports to decline.
--Consumer sentiment in India is diving. Layoffs are coming and salaries that were really high are going to be slashed by as much as half. No more 60 lac rupees jobs at mid management level.
--FDI withdrawing money and Sensex/Nifty will drop by 40-50% due to outflows and weak results from corporate India.
What a mess we are all in. Someone who didn't buy cannot buy for another 3-4 years or more. Reason being the Govt. will try hard to keep RE bubble intact and in this process would just prolong the correction.
Vik, time for a new post for you. Do you ever read these posts here. Never seen you commenting. Or you got laid off and looking for a new job.
Gold Action
What you saw today is a mad rush to gold. Wait till people in India come to senses that RE is flawed, they will dump RE and jump on gold bandwagon. We will see spikes of upto $100 per day and gold will easily top $2500 by end of 2012. RE going to dumped by investors in India and China big time.
gOlDfInGeR
People are going to Gold because everything else is failing. Once things get back to normal in 2-3 years, Gold will be dumped and will be back to $300 per ounce.
Anon @4.04 pm.
Intrinsic value of gold is well above $300. In 2000 when gold was at its low point, it cost more than $200 to mine one oz of gold. In 2011 the mining cost is about $750 or more per oz. Also look at the Money supply since 2000 and you can tell where gold is heading. So your statement that gold will be $300 is fundamentally flawed.
The money supply, and mining costs, fear in markets, etc will drive gold prices to $2500 or higher. Governments can only print their way out of the mess that the economies are in now.
This is the same rationale that a smart investor uses to measure RE prices in India, which is way high compared to its intrisic value (i.e. irrational exuberace is over in Indian RE) and it is time to go back to REs intrinsic value, which is measured by current rental yeilds.
If you are so confident, you should go double short in Gold (GLL) but watch your rear though.
gOlDfInGeR
Goldy above:
I shorted Gold at $1500 and I'm happy. It may go to 2500 but who knows.
I think India, China, Brazil, Aussie are all going to tank big time pretty soon. I invested heavily in RE in US after the collapse buying housing for pennies and renting them. I'm waiting for the same to happen in India and Aussie. Will buy more RE in these countries and retire at 36 years of age.
My investments in US are already paying me 30% rental return. Gold is too risky for me. Moreover, I've enough gold for bad days in the form of jewellery.
RE is a good investment in places like US where it is selling at 30% from peak prices. Looking at the economy, I feel wall street used the economies of BRIC countries for their beneifit and are now shorting all of them.
Masses would be crushed as they are not aware of the game plan.
-SHort RE in India and all SE Asia.
Short Stocks
-Buy Gold as it will go to at least 2200.
-Sit tight and save your job and marriage.
-Have a few drinks and go to bed.
Sensex is going down by another 300points today. Party is coming to an end for all the mutual funds, stocks and all the high paid useless MBAs creating scams.
BUBBLE in AUSTRALIA AND THAILAND:
The Canberra Times reports from Australia. “An Australian Property Monitors report out today shows the national housing market is dampening. Senior economist Andrew Wilson said Canberra’s strong market could be deterring buyers. ‘Canberra median house and unit prices recorded significant falls over the June quarter with affordability barriers and subdued confidence appearing to affect the market with declining levels of buyer activity,’ Dr Wilson said.”
“The figures reveal houses in Tuggeranong, Belconnen, Woden, Gungahlin and Weston recorded the strongest growth in the past 12 months, with houses in Conder rising 19.8 per cent from a median $430,000 a year ago to $515,000 in the June quarter. NATSEM principal research fellow Ben Phillips said affordability had become an Australia-wide issue. ‘It’s no longer just capital cities that are facing affordability issues,’ he said. ‘Affordability levels in Wollongong, Newcastle, Mandurah and the Gold and Sunshine Coast are now on par with major capital cities.”’
Business Live on Thailand. “The MahaNakorn — Great Metropolis — will tower over the Thai capital when it is finished in 2014. The 19 billion baht ($640 million) tower will house apartments, a shopping centre and a Ritz-Carlton hotel. The Bank of Thailand has described 2010 as the ‘golden year for real estate businesses’, with strong demand for homes — driven by low interest rates and increased consumer confidence — causing a flurry of new building.”
“Property research group Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) figures show there were more than 135,000 unsold property units in Bangkok and its suburbs as of July 2011, including projects under construction. Another 100,000 units are expected to come in to the market next year. Developer Sorapoj shrugged off jitters over the health of the real estate sector. ‘I’m not worried about oversupply. The new government will do whatever it takes to prevent bubbles,’ he said.”
FROM BURMA(MYANMAR) AND SINGAPORE:
From Mizzima. “The real estate market boom in Rangoon has reached a peak and the boom is likely to burst soon say local residents but seasoned real estate brokers and construction companies say maybe not. Kyauktada and Pabedan have a bigger demand and the prices are highest. The prices for ground floor flats rose five fold in the last five years with the current price of 30’x60’ flats between 250-400 million kyat (US$ 312,500 to 500,000) but there are few sellers for these flats. Properties in Pyi Road and Kabaraye Pagoda Road are also rising to 300,000 to 500,000 kyat per square foot (US$ 375 to 625).”
“‘Since 2008, the price of real estate has skyrocketed. After the gem emporium, the Chinese-Shan bought properties by paying the calling prices without bargaining if they liked them. Then the calling prices became market prices later,’ a seasoned real estate broker said.”
“Land prices for big plot along Pyi Road and Kabaraye Pagoda Road rose to 500,000 kyat (US$ 625) per square foot from 100,000 kyat (US$ 125). Some assume the property market bubble will burst soon but a noted construction business firm owner said that the current prices for real estate in Burma are not as high as property market prices in most Asean countries, such as Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Singapore.”
“These small units, which measure 47 square metres (506 square feet) or less, have increased in importance since 2009, with their prices trending higher compared to non-landed properties in the central and non-central regions during the past two years. As such, IRES said it will introduce a separate index - apart from its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) - to measure the prices of ’shoe box’ units as their price volatility has a significant impact on overall housing prices.”
BUBBLE in CHINA AND CANADA:
From Bloomberg. “China’s home prices rose at the slowest pace in 11 months in July after the government expanded efforts to curb the risk of an asset bubble, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd. Nationwide purchase restrictions may damp local economies, said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. ‘The one-size-fits-all rule may not have as good an effect as expected because local governments still highly rely on land sales for revenue,’ Liu said in a phone interview.”
“‘The property market in China is headed for a big bust,’ Puru Saxena, chief executive officer of Puru Saxena Wealth Management in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg Television on July 25, citing excess capacity and empty condos.”
New Westminster News Leader in Canada. “On a rare sunny day, two men tending a barbecue at a recent summer get-together may have had this conversation: —This is a nice neighbourhood. How long have you guys lived here? —Four years.”
“—It’s still pretty reasonable buying out here I guess? —Yeah, pretty good. We bought this one for 700 grand. Might go for a bit more now, maybe 800. —800? Man, that’s amazing. I didn’t know houses out here were that cheap —Like borscht. You own a place?”
“—No I’m still renting in Vancouver. My wife and I’ve got a nice two-bedroom that we’re only paying two grand a month for, but still, I’d really like to get into the market…But even the tear-downs are a million-plus. A friend lives out in Point Grey and he had a realtor knock on his door and offer two million on behalf of a client, sight unseen. I mean, a million I could probably do. But two? Nuh-uh.”
“(A woman inside the house calls out, asking if the burgers are ready) -Hey, I didn’t ask, how’s the teaching job going? Still working part time? —Yes. —And Caroline? She’s still doing her masters? —Almost done. One more term left, and then hopefully she’ll get a job soon. We’ve got some pretty big student loans to pay. Meantime, we’ve got to get ourselves a house soon. Time is running out. Prices are only going to keep going up.”
“—Agreed. People talk about a bubble. I don’t believe it. Vancouver’s different. Everyone wants to live here now. Mild climate, the population’s booming, it’s beautiful and you know, there’s only so much space to build on before you hit the mountains or the sea. —You are so right. Only bubbles around here are in these bottles.”
Anon at 5.17
You shorted gold at $1500 and you are saying it will go to $2200. What an idiot. I mean you definitely know that you will loose 50%.
RE bubble all over the world looks like RE bubble in USA 5 years ago.
Stick to the USA, buy rental properties in great metros. If you want to venture further out, follow the gas boom and you can pick properties in Western PA, SE Ohio, ND, etc for the cheap. My RE has returned 30% plus yoy with 10% down through the boom/bust years.
Rental RE in USA is the best investment in the world today, besides Gold, Apple, Good Utilities, and Big Oil. Since credit is tight and good people with decent jobs need a roof over thier head.
gOlDfInGeR
I shorted Gold @1500 and invested in RE in USA. Really happy about my investments. In 8 years they will pay off themselves and in 10-12 years would double in price as I bought really cheap and USA will have massive inflation in the next few years.
Paging Dr. Vik or Dr. Shailesh. Wake up buddy. Time for a new post.
Property Sales in Mumbai keep plunging....here's the proof.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Sales-of-city-homes-take-a-breakneck-plunge/articleshow/9461996.cms
More shit hittin' the fan....
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/21-Palm-Beach-towers-illegal-says-CM/articleshow/9462819.cms
Anon at 7.32 -
The article says 72 months of inventory. That is 6 years!!. If this is indeed true, we are in for very interesting times.
RE prices will not fall drastically without any external trigger, the builders have enough cash to wait out another few years and besides that there is ample black money floating around.
However if the economy goes into tailspin (looking quite likely), which will mean that living in a city itself becomes a liability, expect the shit to hit the fan. Greece is already seeing reverse migration into the villages, there is every chance it can happen elsewhere.
Greek reverse migration
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/13/greek-crisis-athens-rural-migration
@anon - "the builders have enough cash to wait out another few years and besides that there is ample black money floating around."
Disagree on both counts. Builders are having to raise cash at upwards of 30% p.a.
Black money is not dumb money. If it does not returns in RE, it will not go there.
Residents Blame Developers, officials for Violations
http://www.realestatemumbai.com/NewsDetail.aspx?news=1896
and... it is ALWAYS other person's fault. Saau chuhey khakey billi haaj ko chaali. Buyers are always in mindset of sab chalta hai, mumbai mein aaisi choti chhoti baaton pe lafda nahin karne ka...
Finally blame govt for corruption, and when govt is doing something right.... again blame them as it is not my fault... it is other person's fault.
What a fucked up system and attitude.
Mumbai has lots of land, the current setup is designed to maximize profits for a few on the backs of many. Mumbai needs someone with brass balls to take care of things, or somone with no balls, like a Woman!
The sky is falling, the sky is falling says Chicken Little
Tides raise and sinks all boats.
When the tide is high even dart throwing monkeys beat out professional investors.
For all you dart throwing monkeys out there listen to Chicken Little for once....
@Anonymous 10.33, your quote
Mumbai has lots of land, the current setup is designed to maximize profits for a few on the backs of many
Baba , you are living in dreamland. Mumbai population density currently is 40,000 per sq. km. , the highest in the world. The city is a decaying human dump. The 40,000 figure is an average. There may be areas where the population density may be 400,000 per sq. km and also there may be areas where the population may be 4000 per sq. km.
What the govt is doing is just trying to push out the poor people from slum, redevelop the place and pocket as much money as possible to deposit in foreign lands for future use for theit kith and kins. The people pushed out from slums start a new slum in some park or empty place, spend the money got as compensation in bars and red light districts thus filling the pockets of rich.
There is no hope for cities like mumbai, bangalore and pune.
Guys like you who talk from their ass are always trying to create an impression that India is great whereas the reverse is true
Kasbekar:
That density ratio goes down significantly if you consider whole MMR region as Mumbai. What is lacking is infrastructure to bring larger MMR region into Mumbai fold.
Looks like the whole scam game world wide of creating easy money and bubbles is falling apart. I think it would be better for the world to go down and at least find a bottom, a bedrock that they can build up in future. All the G-20 nations have done is kick the can down the road without fixing the problem.
Same with India. Unless GOI realises there is a problem with RE prices, the problem cannot be solved. Just printing money infinitely is making it worse in the long run for our kids.
Sensex going down again by 400 points today.
Contd. from above:
All the effects of QE1 and QE2 created by US Fed should be wiped off. The US Fed and EU should not interfere now by printing more money. They should just let it find a bottom and then grow from there.
If they print more now, the BRICs would be totally spooked due to massive inflation and high commodity prices worldwide.
It is time for reality to surface with massive deflation in RE prices and stocks all over the world.
The Dow is down by 300 points and the Italian stock market had to be closed for a while as the circuit breakers were hit.
A contraction has already started, Gold just erased 30$ in a few hours, but wait I can hear the printers warming up again.
The Dow is diving on Wall Street, plunging more than 350 points at one time, as another broad sell-off continues with investors worried about an economic slowdown........Fox news 1.52 EST
Any forecast for SENSEX... How is it going to fare
Sensex going back to 13,000. Will e down at least 400 today.
What did Chicken Little say yesterday!!!The sky is falling...LOL
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