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"I can see a 33% correction coming in residential property prices in Mumbai, because the market is going to enter a consumer circle," Pankaj Kapoor, managing director, Liases Foras, a real estate rating and research agency, has said. Mr Kapoor was speaking at a workshop on real estate prices, hosted by Moneylife Foundation at the Moneylife Knowledge Centre today.
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Mr Kapoor said that on the basis of current property offtake, Mumbai was in the worst position, while Pune was the best-placed. "Pune's stock can be cleared in 12 months. However, Mumbai will require 40 months," he said. He said that since many financers were shifting to Pune, more capital would be injected in that market and set off speculation. "After a year or so, may be Pune will also see irrational price hikes fuelled by speculation," he said.
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"The problem with most valuations is that they go by the prices next door. So when a developer hears that the adjoining property has been priced at Rs2 crore, he will also hike his own prices. However, he doesn't consider whether sales are actually happening at those prices," Mr Kapoor said. "Even professional valuations are faulty on these accounts. So, inventory piles up, prices rise and the market becomes more lopsided."
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26 comments:
Mr. Kapoor,
You are dead wrong. the prices will correct by more than 60%. They rose 40% in the past 12-15 months itself. Moreover, the 60% or more of the higher selling price.
No only Mumbai, but all metros will see massive declines. I'm afraid of it as it will lead to massive layoffs and all the masses will lose faith in the false growth story. It could even bring in riots and if a few banks fail, that would be it fo rthe next 10 year growth of the country.
A big mess has been created by greedy people in power, bankers and builders. It will end in pain all over.
With increase in petrol price the wealth will now transfer from individual consumer @ Rs. 3.15 direct and indirect accumulated inflation into Arab sheikh. Bedouins might be having a good heartful laugh in some desert kingdom.
India shining??
I don't think so!
Look at the way INR slipped against USD.
USD rules the world!!!!
INR is still dependent on US and EU growth now and for a long long time!!
and pigs will fly....... Pankaj Kapoor
Not sure about how much prices will fall, but I like the confidence with which he says '33%' :)
33% is a good start :)
We have seen prices climb 20% every year..
now we can see prices drop 20% every year..
thats why 33% is a good start.
IM SMILING :)
Question.. HOW DO I CAPITALIZE ON THIS?? WHAT LENDERS DO I SHORT?? WHAT SUB PRIME BONDS DO I BUY INSURANCE ON??
"HOW DO I CAPITALIZE ON THIS?"
I think the market is ahead of the game on this. No wonder that RE stocks have come down 70% or more over the last year or two. Banks have also been beaten down.
I am not sure what kind of properties are expected to correct by 33%. If these are under construction ones then no use because if any kind of credit/banking crisis happens, builders will stop all work on under construction projects. As for constructed properties, they are in the hands of end-users/speculators who may or may not want an exit depending upon how much debt burden they are under.
@Pawan,
Not only debt for end users but when the prices fall even 10-20%, these end users will become sellers. They will not hold an asset that is less than their mortgage or lesser than what they bought for.
You will suddenly see a huge inventory as most buyers and speculators will become sellers and dump their RE in the market thereby driving prices to/for a freefall.
The arab sheikhs have already taken the haircut after falling crude prices, it is the rouge ambani sheikhs that are laughing somewhere in the corners of anatalia, has anyone noted this ? BSES sold off to Reliance, prices increase, Reliance given the licenses to pump out crude and gas, crude and gas prices are set 'free' and rise.
It's a shame that all the failed states around India are selling oil at dirt cheap prices to their people.
And, the next 'superpower' India is bearing the brunt.
Pakistan: 43 INDIAN RUPEES
Sri Lanka: 53 INDIAN RUPEES
Bangladesh: 49 INDIAN RUPEES
Anon 6.00 AM,
People may not want to hold a property if its prices goes lower than the payment still due on the property. However, most end-users who take loans have already paid 20% as their contribution in home loan plus whatever they paid in cash. In total, they may have already paid 30-50% so they will not exit.
Can anyone explain to me the reason for the Rupee's recent decline? Shouldn't the recent interest rates hikes support the Rupee? Why has the Rupee actually declined in the face of rising interest rates?
I can see a 33% correction coming in residential property prices in Mumbai, because the market is going to enter a consumer circle!!!
Pankaj Kapoor just like our politicians, has been making statements similar to the above since 2006. The percentage figure is the only variable -ie 15% to 40%.
I've not seen any indication of price decline in the market, yet. We have to just wait and see.
Rupee going down is very simple, all the money pumped into Indian equity by US investors have been pulled to prop up US ones. US market have been going up for past week. In India the oportunist investors are hunting for bargain price causing the market to stabilize. There is the local demand for USD for import and other needs. We pay the Arab sheikh money is USD and that is where our majority of productivity is outflowing and not really translating into wealth.
Why INR declined?
Simple: GOI is running budget deficits. They are printing money to pay for the spending.
Indian economy is not a miracle compared to china's. China is much bigger and richer than India and is calling shots for european and US woes. India is nowhere and is not expected to be part of the club for another 20 years.
China is much bigger and richer than India and is calling shots for european and US woes. India is nowhere and is not expected to be part of the club for another 20 years.
Hey, are we not supposed to be the next 'superpower' ? the global strong house ? didn't Obama also say this when he came to India?
Mortgage interest rates in India now average 16.5% (Financial Times):
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f5eda74-e064-11e0-ba12-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YLSNLae7
This means even to get a mortgage for a (relatively paltry) 1 Crore - which won't even get you a shoebox-sized 1 Bedroom flat in most Indian cities - the buyer will have to pony up 16 lakhs in interest alone every year (excluding any repayment on the principal). Forget the salaried class or even IT personnel. Unless you work for Facebook or Google, you're not going to be able to make those mortgage payments.
I'm afraid the party's decisively over folks. The smart money will cash out now and take whatever gains they can get from the handful of fools still out there to pay these ludicrous amounts. The vast majority however will still hang on tight waiting in vain for the imminent recovery that will never happen and eventually capitulate into a crumbling market.
GOI is also stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they print money, they risk massive inflation and Egypt/Tunisia-style discontent from an already graft-weary public and if they don't, they face a collapsing RE and Banking Sector.
The first guys to get taken to the cleaners will be the land speculators. These guys are going to lose their shirts and then some.
Hang on tight, there's going to be some turbulence ahead...
Anon above:
So true. I've been waiting anxiously for this to come to reality for a few years now but massive printing by other countries has been holding it up for so long as those dollars find a way to India. Now with extreme inflation and US may be announcing QE3 soon, I think interest rates will go up even higher in India and this RE mess has to burst with a big noise.
RE party is over folks, though for those of you with cash reserves you might get some really good discount deals in the ensuing panic.
Mr Kappor,
Even the property of Pune will come down.
Because i am not seeting sells at its usual pace.
Am an agressive bargain hunter, keenly following realestate chaos due to crash in demand.
very useful & applicable :) Wishing you the best of luck!
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