Wednesday, November 23, 2011

India's property prices bite the dust - with a few exceptions



Hindustan Times reports on NHB's index.


Residential property prices have dropped across most cities, with an exception of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Pune, mirroring the trend that consumers are perhaps putting off planned house purchases due to rising interest rates and fall in disposable incomes. The movement in prices of
residential properties has shown a decreasing trend in nine cities covered by the National Housing Bank's (NHB) Residex during the July-September quarter of 2011 compared to the previous three months. ( see table)
NHB Residex tracks the housing prices in the select 15 cities. The classification has been designed so as to give the most representative index for each city based on the transactions in the market and data collected from various sources.

The data is put through a model that depicts the actual behaviour of the market and throws up the index.

Bank credit has slowed down in most sectors during the last six months prompted by deceleration in investment demand. Latest data mirror strong warnings on consumer spending slowdown.

Loans to real estate have also slowed down sharply to 2.3% during the first six of 2011-12 from 10.3% in the previous year.

The RBI has raised interest rates 13 times in the past 19 months to tame prices.

Credit growth to industry during April to September decelerated to 7.5% from 8.1% last year.

102 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yippeee!!!! Now we can all afford flats!

Oh wait. Prices in......Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai haven't gone down, instead they have gone UP.

Oh well, what the heck, those cities don't matter. The vast majority of us don't want to buy in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai. Yeah!We want to buy in Calcutta, Kochi and Ludhiana!

Happy times are here again!

Anonymous said...

This is just the tip of the iceberg.
The real good news will come soon.
Its time to rejoice :)

shailesh said...

But limit realty exposure

The real estate sector has been grappling with interest rate rises, slowdown in sales and an increase in debt burden of developers. Though sales have dried up, developers are not ready to cut prices and they are borrowing at a higher cost.

An analyst with a foreign brokerage who did not wish to be identified says, “Indiabulls Real Estate has failed to generate any cash flow earnings and most of its net asset value lies with its power venture, where it will take time before any concrete results can be seen. The company has bought land parcels from National Textile Corporation at very high prices, where they are not able to capitalise. Even in its existing projects, cash flow is a concern, and sales slowdown in Mumbai is a negative sentiment.”

Ibrel isn’t the only case. Following the footsteps are fund managers who had bought stake in Orbit Corporation promoted by Pujit Agarwal. Agarwal, managing director of the luxury realty company, said, “The realty market has been hit badly. FIIs have sold our shares but as I understand, in the last two weeks, FIIs have started re-investing. Our stocks have fallen considerably but sales are slowly picking up.”

shailesh said...

Wow, I don't see how this airport will see light of day. If Villagers want Rs 20 crore per acre, for 563 acre the cost will be 11000 crore, almost $2 Billion. Total cost was supposed to be about $1 billion, now just land cost so much + cost of building airport, this might as well be the most expensive airport in world.

Government should just do like what Tata's did to Singur. Pack and leave. One could develop 20 navi mumbai's in that much amount.

Maharashtra to give 150 ha for Navi Mumbai airport

With the government’s move to hand over 150 hectare, the Cidco would still have to acquire 563 hectare of land for which the notices have been served under the Land Acquisition Act, 1894 to the residents of Pargaon and Owale. These villagers have been strongly demanding a compensation of Rs 20 crore per acre.

Pawan said...

http://www.subramoney.com/2011/11/why-real-estate-prices-cannot-fall-at-all/

polt said...

Also increasing evidence that laws of economics (supply and demand) are finally taking hold of wages.
High salaries in IT -> Greater demand for and supply of technical courses -> Greater supply of engineers -> Lower wages (or wage increases).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/jobs/number-of-tech-graduates-swells-salaries-at-it-firms-stay-stagnant/articleshow/10850119.cms

Several folks have argued in this blog that wages are expected to rise for a long time. (Another version of the we are different theory :). Reality bites.
The really skilled will continue to see demand. But the average project manager type maintaining legacy systems for US banks will not see constant double digit pay hikes.

RBI has an interesting dilemma. Raise rates to save the rupee and reduce inflation OR lower them to save borrowers (individual and corporate)

Anonymous said...

1. This data is somewhat optimistic. The RE lobby has a strong say over what is published about the prices. So, I would subtract an additional 10% from all the numbers.

2. All RE indicators have a lag (this is not like the stock market where everything is instantaneous). So, my guess is that these numbers have gone worse by another 10% as of today.

3. I would not attempt to catch a falling knife. There is a lot of "fall" left in real estate.

This is just the beginning!

aam aadmi said...

Real Estate(esp apartments) falls first in peripheral areas, so this is quite consistent with known models.

The demand in smaller towns is from prospective speculators who think that these towns will grow, demand in the major metros is from speculators + the earning middle class. They will definitely follow the periphery.

Anonymous said...

"These villagers have been strongly demanding a compensation of Rs 20 crore per acre."

Greed!
Every man is greedy.
Every man will learn his lesson that GREED IS BAD, REALLY REALLY BAD.

Rates in navi mumbai are increasing cuz of the airport. Now it seems that airport wont be built after all. This is fun.

Anonymous said...

I am assuming these are nominal prices. If so, in real terms the losses are greater.

Anonymous said...

These reports are baseless. Real Estate mafia has paid journalists who float reports to appease our sentiments. In smaller cities, it is impossible to verify the trend. Bigger cities are more transparent.

As govt keeps on printing money most of which becomes black in no time, there is little wonder that prices are seeing a upward trend. To satisfy people like us, now and then, reports of imminent real estate crash are published.

Anonymous said...

I too have lost complete faith in reports appearing in newspapers. I'm sure that these are cooked.

Anonymous said...

No reason to be pessimistic. The stories of crash started appearing in newspaper for the past few months only.

If the trend continues along with with share market crash will give the much needed correction in RE.

wait for few more month guys.

Anonymous said...

India shining!!!!

Why INR falling like a rock??

Indian stocks underperforming rest of the world!!

The only thing that has held any value is Indian real estate!

Anonymous said...

i m staying in nerul navi mumbai.flat prices in nerul have increased six times in last 8 years.will my dream of owning a house ever come true?

Anonymous said...

"i m staying in nerul navi mumbai.flat prices in nerul have increased six times in last 8 years.will my dream of owning a house ever come true?"

Who cares for your dream man? So relax. buy when u have money...

Everyone is busy with their own dreams. Makes no difference to anyone if you fulfill your dream or no.

When prices come down then buy, until then rent n stay cool.

Anonymous said...

"Who cares for your dream man? So relax. buy when u have money...

Everyone is busy with their own dreams. Makes no difference to anyone if you fulfill your dream or no."

Hahaha. Harsh, but so true and well-deserved. Everyone's looking out for their own a$$e$ these days. No time to worry about others' dreams. Also, others' dreams frequently turn out to be one's own nightmares. I refer to the idiots out there whose buying homes at any cost has made life intolerable for the rest of us.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/-unhedged-infosys-hcl-profit-from-rupee-fall-chart-of-the-day.html

Salaries will jump 10-15% on this leading to a jump in housing prices in IT areas of blore, chennai, pune

NRI said...

Companies will make money but employees are paid in rupees and not dollars. I don't see prices going up because of rupee depreciation. However NRIs holding out might buy but they could hold out longer with the hope of rupee dropping to 60.

samix said...

NRIs holding out might buy but they could hold out longer with the hope of rupee dropping to 60..

Oh I would for sure,,, The only diff is that I would not buy RE with it, until it crashes with a thud..I can wait forever for this, as I already have a house.

Anonymous said...

Where is damn Tesla Earthquake machine when you need 1. One more major jolt will solve all of this dilemma. I want to go back to India but current housing prices keep me out. I have 3cr but not interested in giving it to greedy Gujarat builders.

Anonymous said...

Why blame builders, why don't we talk about a aam-admi seller like you and me? Won't you hike your prices when market is ready to pay? Why ask for salary hikes? Why increase prices of your products when there are buyers out there with cash on hand to pay the price?

We are not talking of social or charity work... take it or leave it.

Mirdad said...

Property prices in Delhi and NCR has also started coming down. The only problem is brokers, who consistently lie. I contacted several brokers to buy 3bhk house in dwarka in a particular society and they all quoted that I can get for 1.3 crore. My cousin who actually lived in the sociiety also contacted the same brokers and they all quoted an average price of 91 lakhs, stating that there are only sellers in market and not buyers. The reasons for further fall in propety are:

1. Very high interest rates - genuine buyers will not have the guts to buy at such artifically high prices.

2. Rents are extremely low as commpared to EMI. For a 90 lakh house if you take 60 L loan,and pay 55,000 EMI - the same houuse is available for 12,000 rent per month.

3. Black money component will go down with increse in circle rates so actual transections will be less and people will have to borrow money.

4. Historically prices fall when every body is bullish - that stage has arrived.

5. Out of all the propety available in NCR only 62% is ready, and the remaining 28% is under constructiion. Once this becomes available the price dynamics will change drastically because the investors will like to exit and there will be no genuine buyer

Anonymous said...

"4. Historically prices fall when every body is bullish - that stage has arrived."

I can personally vouch for this. Every, and I mean *EVERY* Indian I have ever spoken to (whether in Mumbai, San Jose, NCR, Chennai, Hyderabad, Sydney or London) is UTTERLY CONVINCED that RE prices can only go up in India and that the laws of economics don't apply here.

Either all of us on this board are clinically insane and need our collective heads checked or the rest of the world is belaboring under mass delusion. Take your pick.

Anonymous said...

@mirdad-thanks for giving ground reality on delhi property market,this is a classic bust in asset prices about to be triggered.history is repeating itself again
1990-japan
2007-USA(here students bought houses on student loans thinking property values only rise,will cover their student loans,heheheeee)
2010-dubai
2012-china,australia ,canada
and INDIA(JUST KIDDING,ECON 101 DOES NOT APPLY HERE)HEHHEHEHEEEEEEEEE.

IREO Gurgaon Hills said...

Interesting story!

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Ankan said...

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Anonymous said...

to the one who said Y blame builders.."take it or leave it"..thats what we are doing you dumbo..WE ARE LEAVING IT E1 AFTER HAVE CRORES OF MONEY IN POCKET..DONT YOU REALISE IT YET..people have become smart now..y waste your life time earnings in one single house far from the city like dwarka, navimumbai, thane, gurgaon etc..AND still slog for the next 20 years to pay the emi of more than 1 lakh..instead.. shell out 25k stay rented in a posh locality eg. gk2, lokhandwala...save your emi and save or if you have ready cash save the 75k in mutual funds wen the markets crash or e1 in a bank it will give you the sanme returns..

wait and watch builders will give up..they have to especially wen there is 50 times more supply than the demand..

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Anonymous said...

There is now fear of earthquake in Kochi after the frequent earthquakes in Idukki district.Why take the risk of investing lakhs for apartments which can be reduced to mere debris in matter of seconds and also endangering the lives, when you can safely invest for buying land and building a safer house.Needless to say why land prices are spiralling up day by day even in the remotest villages in kerala.

doing business in dubai said...

so real estate business is a best business than other business because it business has lots of benefits so constructional business is simple therefore most people lie it.

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Anonymous said...

Investopedia explains `Price-to-Rent Ratio` The price-to-rent ratio provides a comparison between owning and renting properties in certain cities. The ratio uses the average list price with average yearly rent on two-bedroom apartments, condos and townhomes that are listed on a real estate search website. The price-to-rent ratio is calculated by dividing the average list price by the average yearly rent price, as follows: Price-to-rent ratio = Average list price / (Average Rent * 12) Trulia establishes thresholds for the ratios as follows: Price-to-rent ratio of 1 to 15 = much better to buy than rent Price-to-rent ratio of 16 to 20 = typically better the rent than buy Price-to-rent ratio of 21 or more = much better to rent than buy

and this ratio is above 35 every where in India ie 1Carore cost of flat /Diveded 240000/- yearly rental = 41.66 so friends this is a very huge bubble and any time it will burst

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real estate portal said...

the housing market is the first to get affected by the changes in economy. if the economy is good then the effects are positive and for bad economy the effects are negative. the economy have been bad since 2010 and it continued to be for most of 2013. but now it has started to recover.

real estate portal said...

the housing market is the first to get affected by the changes in economy. if the economy is good then the effects are positive and for bad economy the effects are negative. the economy have been bad since 2010 and it continued to be for most of 2013. but now it has started to recover.

Sanjay Sawant said...

Few cities like Mumbai,Chennai have shown hike in property rates.
Online Property Sites will give you in detail explanation.

Sanjay Sawant said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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raul chitna said...

Residential prices in Mumbai,Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai haven't gone down because the investment in these cities is high as compare to others and also the property rates are increasing in these cities so investing would be the best option

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