Friday, December 23, 2011

As Rupee falls, NRIs 'home’ in on realty in Mumbai

It appears that  a 15% decline in the rupee has lead to surge in NRI interest in property. While the rest of Indian economy slows down the NRI can sustain micromarkets in IT cities like Bangalore, Pune and Chennai

DNA Article followed by one in Times of India. The builders are in overdrive mode courting the NRI.


The record decline in the value of the Indian rupee and the sluggish realty market have proved to be a double delight for overseas Indians investing in property here.

Sunil Sequira, a resident of Kuwait, has zeroed in on a property in Thane at a rate nearly 30% lower than usual. “This is the right time to buy property,” he said. “Many of my friends have also decided to buy property in India. We are expecting an annual 10% to 15% appreciation.”

Sandeep Reddy, co-founder of Groff.com, a real estate brokerage firm, said it has been getting a good response from overseas buyers. At the recent property exhibition in Dubai, many people booked flats on the spot, and several showed interest in flying to Mumbai to check out property and finalise their decisions.

“NRIs are mainly interested in Navi Mumbai and Bangalore properties. This time, there was a slightly lower demand for the Delhi market. Going by this response, we have decided to organise and participate in exhibitions in Singapore and other international places that have a large Indian population,” said Reddy.

Niranjan Hiranandani, managing director of the Hiranandani Group, said, “The decline in the rupee value against the dollar/dinar in the international market has helped to attract more and more NRI buyers. If the cost of the flat is Rs1 crore as per the Indian market, the NRI has to pay only Rs85 lakh— 15% less, thanks to the record decline in the rupee value.”

Commercial opportunities in the West are on a downturn. So, people are looking at the Indian market for investment and business purposes, he added. “Once the RBI brings down its high interest rate, the city property market will surge again. There is a huge demand for houses, but the high costs and interest rates have discouraged buyers temporarily. People are awaiting the low interest rate loan.”

Times of India article

Hot Indian property destinations for NRIs in 2012
The Non Resident Indian (NRI) might as well remember 2011 as the year of the 'lazy investor'. For NRIs have gained 18% since August 2011, simply by remitting money to India; no effort at all. But as we approach 2012, NRIs must take stock of how best to use their remittances. The traditional favorite has always been real estate. But in this volatile market, how great an investment is it? Is this a good time to buy property in India? What kind of property is a good bet? Let's try to find answers.





What are the key locations for residential property?
"Suburban locations of every metro are great investment options. So for instance, you have Gandhinagar near Ahmedabad, Nalasopara, Dahisar, Panvel, Pen and Kalamboli near Mumbai," says Dutt.
Mahtani places her bets on GST road, Porur and OMR in Chennai, North Bangalore largely Hibbal, Saha Shivnagar, Sarjapur Road and Whitefield in Bangalore, Dwarka Expressway in Gurgaon, Bandra East, Goregaon, Panvel in Mumbai and certain select developments in Lower parel, Mahalaxmi and Parel in Central Mumbai.

115 comments:

Anonymous said...

Can someone tell me how big is the NRI demand for the overall Indian realty sector?


My guess is that it is not much.

This artcle is a sham and looks like being paid for by the builder community.

Anonymous said...

That means decline is only for NRIs? And what happens when rupee depreciates more.. Will bring in more NRIs?

Also who will NRI sell their appreciated property to? Another NRI?

JOKE!!

Yet Another NRI said...

I noticed that the locations they are asking NRI's "to BET" are far flung locations...so if there is a capitulation in the RE asset cycle, poor NRI's will be slaughtered. Secondly these are opinions of barbers on whether NRI's should take a haircut.

Anonymous said...

NRIs are not fools to invest in a declining market and catch a falling knife. All this news is a paid advertisement. RE is going down by 25-30% in the next 6 months and another 50% in the next few years.

aam aadmi said...

What a bunch of fools. If I had a few crores to spare I'd be looking to buy a foreign country green card and a property abroad. Not buy an overpriced apartment in a shithole like an Indian city.

Anonymous said...

Excellent opportunity with 30% fall in Bangalore real estate price and 15% Dollar appreciation. It is a golden opportunity and should never miss. Wait for 6 months the increase in import price will catch up with inflation.

Ankan said...

Hello, your blog is full of interesting information. Thanks

Pawan said...

Seems like the booming economy ain't making Indians any happier.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/14/world-happiest-countries-lifestyle-realestate-gallup-table.html

Anonymous said...

I don't think NRI can boost RE sales rather enacsh is better option in falling situtation.

Anonymous said...

NRI buy property for two
1. Main reason 'investment'. But if there are no current buyer at current price, they have to take a bet of getting future buyers with higher price. That ain't gonna happen.

so NRI investing is out of picture.

2. To stay for self and family. Most of the family already have flats, may be they will upgrade. But still they have to sell (find buyer) existing flat before they buy another flat. that ain't gonna happen either.


Does anyone know if builders are completing their projects on time? I like to know what happens to investors who are holding onto projects that are completed and have paid in full/have EMIs to pay with no buyers insight.

Anonymous said...

"If I had a few crores to spare I'd be looking to buy a foreign country green card and a property abroad. Not buy an overpriced apartment in a shithole like an Indian city."

Incredibly well put.

Anonymous said...

""If I had a few crores to spare I'd be looking to buy a foreign country green card and a property abroad. Not buy an overpriced apartment in a shithole like an Indian city."

Incredibly well put."

And Incredibly Well Spent :)

Anonymous said...

if prices go up in Jan we can assume NRI's have helped builders cleared the inventory. If not we know it did not

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Anonymous said...

To all people seeing this message.

"Merry Christmas And a Prosperous New Year"

God Bless You All! :)

Pawan said...

If prices go up in Jan we can assume NRI's have helped builders cleared the inventory. If not we know it did not.

Impossible to know the actual sale price.

Anonymous said...

So the RE industry has now become an export industry?

BTW, are these NRI sales to speculators or end-users (i.e NRIs buying for parents here, etc) ?

Anonymous said...

Are we staring on the US road

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/bad-loans-may-soon-cross-rs-150-000-cr/892091/

Anonymous said...

Another bright spot in a bearded man's morning - http://www.livemint.com/2011/12/25233659/Unlisted-real-estate-firms-pil.html?h=B

Anonymous said...

Interesting article from the mouthpiece of Real Estate developers - http://www.livemint.com/2011/11/30231509/Is-price-correction-inevitable.html

Dave Velasco said...

Hmm. The NRI seems to be considering some factors for them to stay up til now. real estate course

Anonymous said...

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/09/23/real-estate-troubles-hit-india/

Anonymous said...

Do I understand this right?

If I as an NRI were to buy now, it is 20% cheaper, but if I as an NRI who just sold the house and wants to repatriate, I lost 20% due to forex loss?

Can someone please stop this madness!!!!

Anonymous said...

What do you want to stop?
This is what it is. Rupee is going to fall further to 60. Than the percentage of gain or loss would be even higher.

Ideally, keep your USD. Do not waste it in RE in India but buy in USA.

Vj said...

I am an NRI and live in US since 2008...earning decent salary....but there is no way I would put in my money in this crazy market....I am following this blog since a year and I completely agree with all you that investing hard earned money in shitty Indian cities would be heights of stupidity....however I was shocked to the core after talking to my friend who lives in the same place I live...he is planning to buy 2 flats in Pune...one for him to live and one for investment! and worst part is there is not even a building yet! he said he would have the flat in 2016!!! Can any one beat this kind of stupidity? and I don;t know how many such NRI idiots are all over the world...god save us all....

Anonymous said...

VJ,

I know of some NRIs who are living like 3-4 people in an apt. in US, make a salary of average 120K and drive Accord or Camry. They save a lot of money in living expenses and move it to India for RE mortgage payments. Here they manage their expenses very low and are saving for future.

One can argue that what kind of life they are living here. Why don't they enjoy their money and live nicely. They can't and they won't. They are not dating or seeing anyone, when time comes for marriage they will find someone from Times of India and then buy a house. Till then, save and move it to India. There were kilos of NRIs who came to US between 2001-2010. Most are still on H-1/L-1.

You'll always find these people investing in India as their GC are still in limbo and they are securing their future by buying RE there.

Maybe other folks know more here. I would still say that people should live nicely and give a good impression to people in the US that Indians are not filthy or live like in slums.

Anonymous said...

if your friend is thinking of living in pune securing a place for the future is a good idea. however not sure if under construction is the way to go. if builder defaults the guy is hosed. I would rather buy a ready/almost ready place to live in today

aam aadmi said...

They are not dating or seeing anyone, when time comes for marriage they will find someone from Times of India and then buy a house. Till then, save and move it to India.

It's a bit cliched but I agree. I won't fault them either, it's not like they have a choice, there are no safety nets in India, so saving as much as you can makes sense.

As far as marriages go, in India the concept is still medieval, it's more like a social/business contract between two families or two communities.

Buy Apartment in Noida said...

Buy Flat in Delhi Ncr is the only choice, because most prominent developers are now developing all attractable dream projects in this region. No more options are now just grab these great offers without losing time.

Anonymous said...

To everyone reading this message: Happy Holidays and Happy New Year.

leave merry chritsmas to the western world, don't use subtle tricks to convert people.

Anonymous said...

@Anon 12:27-
I know of some NRIs who are living like 3-4 people in an apt. in US, make a salary of average 120K and drive Accord or Camry. They save a lot of money in living expenses and move it to India for RE mortgage payments. Here they manage their expenses very low and are saving for future.


Very true. These are hard working, sensible people. They aren't breaking any laws. Driving Accord or Camry makes sense - they give best bang for buck. They are making best of their times... in few years these souls are on par with filthy rich in India. Sacrifices do pay off.

I know people who went to western countries, saved every pinch of $/#s they could. They didn't ask for govt handouts, they didn't steal or beg or borrow. Came back to India, now they go from slums to big apartments.

Am I jealous - hell no! But angry - yes - why? because people who couldn't get opportunity or couldn't sacrifice to make it big are the ones always trying to criticize these people.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

I don't think anyone is jealous. I wonder why do they go back to India and live in big apartments there. They can share and live shabbily there too and save even more for thier kids marriages.

Life is to live by proper planning and not living by cutting corners. Also, one should realise that every Indian outside India creates an impression of India. Let's all create a good impression so that more people get opportunities in future.

Puneite said...


I know of some NRIs who are living like 3-4 people in an apt. in US, make a salary of average 120K and drive Accord or Camry. They save a lot of money in living expenses and move it to India for RE mortgage payments. Here they manage their expenses very low and are saving for future.


This is not the only case, if husband and wife both work and earn more than 70k US$ each, of course they can have enough disposable income to buy/build house in India.

Secondly in US the interest rates are negative (0% in bank and charges for every withdrawal) - given this scenario and the fact the people have stock options and 401k, the remaining savings can either be enjoyed or invested and hence they pick real estate.

Anonymous said...

I live in the US and have been looking to invest in India-more as a home for my retirement as I am slowly aging.

However the prices scare me. The prices of a Tier-2 city in India is the same or higher than a price of a house in a nice US city-which I think is bizarre.(if you look at incomes)

I went through the US bubble-luckily did not buy. India does look like a bubble-paying 1 crore or more for a house in a Tier 2 city is just dumb(Even in today's rates, that is 200k USD). For 200k, you can almolst get two houses in Las Vegas, Phoenix or some other city. Chennai, Mumbai are equivalent or higher than Los Angeles/New York-this when interest rates in India are much higher.

Lets see-I think I will wait it out for a few years and see how it goes-else I can just rent in India. If I retire, smaller places are ok and rent is surprisingly cheap compared to price-another sign of a bubble.

aam aadmi said...

@Anon above
If I had to retire in India it would be in one of the smaller states of India such as Himachal or Sikkim. I would avoid the big states or cities.
Uttarakhand too has some nice quaint places off the map. I would even consider Mizoram, one state with the highest standards of human development in India.

But again all of this depends on how much you can adapt. In my experience people who've grown up in one place till adulthood cannot adjust a lot even if they live at some other place for a long time.

Anonymous said...

I would never buy at these prices but keep the money in bank and rent of from its interest. Suppose a property costs me today 1 crore, I can easily make 1 lac per month and rent the same property for 15K a month. Why in the world would I want to buy when I can rent the same for a fraction and enjoy the remaining 85K on my lavishness. And my Principal is still safe.

Stupidity to buy in this market. It is a sellers market in India and not buyers. If you have RE, sell..sell..sell. Wait till the prices correct by 50% before you can buy or there is no need to buy as it makes no sense to buy. Keep your cash. Cash is king(white only, black money owners should be ashamed of stealing money).

Anonymous said...

@Anon
I don't think anyone is jealous. I wonder why do they go back to India and live in big apartments there. They can share and live shabbily there too and save even more for thier kids marriages.

Because savings is not significant enough when cutting corners in India (read 'cheap labor').


Life is to live by proper planning and not living by cutting corners. Also, one should realise that every Indian outside India creates an impression of India. Let's all create a good impression so that more people get opportunities in future.

Couldn't agree more. BUT You are confusing economics with behavior and manners. These two are different topics. I know people make $8 per hour in USA but drive BMW and eating in restaurants frequently. I also know people who earn USD 150K+ and drive Camry.

Anonymous said...

A lot of NRIs buy in Tier 1 cities with the hope of better property rights. In Tier 2 cities or undeveloped land, a goon can take over your property and you are SOL. I think Gujarat is the exception, there is significant property rights and ability to execute your rights.

In UP/Punjab, a relative can get your death certificate and take over your property.

skeptic's ghost said...

@last poster True that

Historically India has been a land of cheats when it comes to land rights - Read Bernier, Tavernier and Thevenot's travels in the 16th and 17th century India and you will notice numerous stories (these books are freely available to read on ipad, android, browser) -

- The King/Raja/Emperor owned all property and at the event of the death of household leader, the King annexed all his property. (India never had European concept of private properties, feudal lords, marquisates or duchies, etc - the Jahagir or Bakshish lands were based on the thence ruling King's wishes)
This lead to large tracts of fertile land being left unused, uncultivated, unsettled for fear of the rulers usurping it at will.
India barely had constructed houses until after 1880s-1900s. - people only lived in tents or mud huts (barring one fort in the town for the armed folk).

- Lack of property rights continued with British India who cared less if ordinary working class Indians kept themselves occupied and paid enough taxes to fund the government. Only few cities in such a large nation maybe Bangalore and Chandigarh were conceived and built as planned cities with avenues, civic services, etc - remaining cities were mere patchwork of huts that surrounded the existing fortified old cities.

- So called independent India also continues the blatant violation of private property - usurping anything anytime without any compensation (barring the fact that during election time they will look to appease large sections)

Without private property and ownership, there is no incentive to do anything - if the government (or its cronies or bribing conspirators) will seize/steal your possessions for which you worked hard - you might as well not work hard and live off free government handouts.

Anonymous said...

So it begins ?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/jittery-investors-selling-flats-below-market-rate/articleshow/11275674.cms

Anonymous said...

READ THIS::::::::::

December 26, 2011 08:11 AM

http://www.moneylife.in/article/foreclosure-after-real-estate-bubbles-burst-in-ems/22437.html

The consequences of a real estate bust in emerging markets would create quite a different situation than the real estate bust in developed markets. The rules are much different and so would the outcome. A burst real estate bubble in emerging markets would be far more severe and would last much longer.

The reason is simple. The legal plumbing in these countries, including foreclosures and bankruptcy laws, is either deficient at best or nonexistent at worst. There isn’t even information on it. Despite diligent search in all financial news sources and general internet search, I have found few if any references to emerging market foreclosures.

Many economists like to point out that mortgage lending in these countries is still quite small and often requires large down payments. True, but it has been growing at 20% a year in places like India. In China bank-financed construction makes up twice the percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) as it does in developed countries.

For a country to grow after the crash of a real estate bubble, the market has to reach equilibrium. To do so requires that over priced homes with delinquent mortgages have to be foreclosed and sold. If the procedure for foreclosure doesn’t exist, then the entire economy gets stuck with massive dud loans and zombie banks as occurred for over a decade in Japan. So when the emerging markets collapse, the recovery will take years.

Anonymous said...

I think BRIC’s currencies would be “burned to a crisp” which portends much worse economic events than simply a housing bubble.

RE bubble would definitely burst with 50-60% drops, but the whole economy would be toast for a decade or so. Many of these high paid jobs will vanish and MBA would be the least in demand, maybe Rs.30-40K per month jobs for IIM grads.

I'm afraid of a revolt in India and all BRICs as many people would be caught off guard. They don't want to learn from events in other countries.

Anonymous said...

GOLD bubble also seem to be bursting. I think a 50% drop is in card for Gold..

If OIL rises by 20-30 USd in international market, India is toast as the petrol is tied openly now without any subsidiy. It would cause very high inflation, combined with falling rupee.

We could see hyperinflation with falling RE and Gold prices.

Mayans have said it right that the world may come to an end in 2012.

samix said...

Also, one should realise that every Indian outside India creates an impression of India. Let's all create a good impression so that more people get opportunities in future.

This is so true my friend, so true, Indians in the Middle east suffer due to image of poverty and helplessness that some Indians have created here in from of the Nationals of these countries, when infact they have crores back home,

After living in a multi-nationality country, I can say conclusively that majority of Indians lack self respect, and we lack style massively, A Indian can be spotted in between a 1000 people just because of the lack of style that they display. Please take this as constructive criticism.

Anonymous said...

2012 forecast-
money printing in west

money printing in east

ALREADY TOAST MARKET FOR RE-
1.JAPAN
2.USA
3.PIIGS

THIS IS ABOUT MOST OF WEST

UNDER WATER OVERHEATED MARKET READY FOR SLAUGHTER-
1.CHINA
2.AUSTRALIA
3.INDIA


NRI,HNI,RI(RESIDENT INDIAN),TATA,BIRLA,MIRLA,ETC ETC ETC
EVERYONE WILL SUFFER AND BEFORE THAT HAPPENS KEEP SMILING COZ EVERYTHING IS A JOKE UNTIL IT HAPPENS TO U.

Krishna said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/jittery-investors-selling-flats-below-market-rate/articleshow/11275674.cms

Developer claims Rs 5500 now in 2011 for a property which was sold at Rs 3000 during 2010.
It is whopping 183% increase. How will they justify that price hike?

An investor-seller who has paid less than 50% of the project value ie Rs1500 till now has sold it for 4300 taking a profit of 1300
that is 83% in just one year.

It was all possible because of the madness of the educated unintelligent crowd

Anonymous said...

So investors buy at discounted prices and with partial payment because project is underway. But when they sell they sell as if project is completed and with full price.

WOW!!! End buyers are complete idiots buying with full/over price for unfinished, undelivered product.

skeptic's ghost said...

Most of these investors are -

a. Relatives and close friends of Builder

b. Politicians, baboos and original land owners (park the black money)

c. People who have lent money to builder.

d. Touts who use PE firm investment money (bakras) offering them unrealistic high returns.

Hence before a project is opened to public more than half the flats/units are already marked as sold by the builder/

This false and unfair competition of end users vs investors is now being regulated in china to deflate the bubble.
In india it is going to happen the hard way with a crash in the complete economy as the Rupee falls and inflation soars to near unmanageable level

skeptic's ghost said...

2 insightful commentaries on effects and type of Real Estate collapse in emerging markets -

1) Seeking Alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/315940-effects-of-foreclosures-after-real-estate-bubbles-burst-in-emerging-markets

"The consequences of a real estate bust in emerging markets would create quite a different situation than the real estate bust in developed markets. The rules are much different and so would the outcome. A burst real estate bubble in emerging markets would be far more severe and would last much longer.

The reason is simple. The legal plumbing in these countries, including foreclosures and bankruptcy laws, is either deficient at best or nonexistent at worst. There isn’t even information on it. Despite diligent search in all financial news sources and general internet search, I have found few if any references to emerging market foreclosures. "

2) Market Oracle
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32329.html

"This underlines the stealth mode collapse occurring in China and India. The data used for finding out what is happening has lost its focus. Not only speculators and players, but hardened market operators are staying away from the sector due to lack of trust. Claims by Jim Rogers, talking up his New Asian Home, that Chinese real estate financing methods avoid the extremes which gave us the subprime crisis are hopeful and highly charitable but are unreal. Before 2007, his storyline is that Americans and Spaniards were buying four or five houses with no job, no down-payment, and 120% loans (with the 20% extra to buy Donald Duck furniture and washing machines from China). The myth goes that China and India dont have that problem - but in fact what they have is far worse."

Pawan said...

If this is what goes on in the USA then there is no hope for us in India. Stop worrying about the nation, start plotting about beating the guy next to you in the rat race.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2078964/Growing-wealth-gap-members-Congress-rule-survey-reveals.html

Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news-/puravankara-projects-to-sell-3-properties-for-rs-250-crore-to-pay-off-debt/articleshow/11264982.cms

This is just the trailor.

Pawan said...

DLF debt downgraded by CRISIL:
http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20111229095207199

shailesh said...

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-20/sanya-home-bubble-pops-as-prices-deflate-in-china-s-hawaii.html

shailesh said...

http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-20/sanya-home-bubble-pops-as-prices-deflate-in-china-s-hawaii.html

Anonymous said...

Almost five years after the bubble burst, the bottom has still not been reached in the US.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=1&source=patrick.net

polt said...

The bubble continues to burst in Australia. More importantly this post (from the highly informative site "debtdeflation" run by Steve Keen) makes the point that correlation between population and home prices is weak or non-existent.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/05/02/house-prices-and-the-credit-impulse/

The post makes the point that home prices are strongly correlated with credit. I suspect it is the same here in India as well. 2008 was a case in point. Credit virtually disappeared. Prices fell by 30% in our big metros.

Anonymous said...

My take on real estate in India:

1. Prices will not decline, but only increase (may be at lesser acceleration).

2. Market will have few buyers, but that will not result in price decline.

3. Investors and end-users will keep holding to real estate even if doesn't sell. Rents will tend to increase to cover basic expenses (minimal or no profit).

4. Builders will halt their projects and no new projects will be launched. Builders have no reason to build more - they have made their bucks.

5. All of above will create a scenario of 'demand'.. will attract investors from all parts of life.

6. I would live life king size on Rent, debt free, at fraction of EMI payments. Because one day someone will pay for this nonsense and I don't want to be that one!

Puneite said...

As long as ((Rent Per Sq Ft < Price Per Sqft / 200) == true) it makes sense to rent.

If prices stagnate but construction stops, people who are entering the market for whatever reasons will buy up the available inventory and put pressure on the rental market by either pushing rents up or by drying up open rental properties (remember that builders will stop building and will live hand to mouth).

I predict that the weakened rupee and upcoming collapse in the commodities sector will rekindle buying activity eventually (2012 end - 2013 start) - I also think Collapsing commodities will force McManmohan to reduce the interest rates.

Barring unusual circumstances like an all out Iran US war or political stalemate I really dont see any reason for fully constructed property prices to correct more than 20-30%.

So if prices correct 20% Plus rupee fell 20% - so I see a total fall of roughly 35-40%.

I can bet that market will not fall any further after around the end of 2012.

Anonymous said...

Anon @8:45:

Your take on RE is right you and others heavily invested who are optimistic.

I would suggest that you buy some more flats and make more money. Your take on the situation is absolutely right.

My take is to stay away from RE till it corrects by 50% at least. My take is to save my job as layoffs are coming soon to extravagant salaried folks and young generation who have not seen the real world yet. All they have seen is money flowing and easy money coming. People are rich and think themselves to be very smart as it came tooooo easy. Easy come easy go.

Anonymous said...

@Anon above-

What is your rational of your analysis? your feelings?

BTW, I am not invested in RE and don't want to be part of this mess. I'm with you on buying RE when right time (and affordability) comes along.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

What was the rationale for prices to become 1000 times in 4 years?

The problem is not that the prices will correct, the issue is why they went so absurd and how to avoid this nonsense in future to prevent a meltdown of the whole financial system and breaking hearts/lifestyles of poor/middle class people.

Anonymous said...

If history teaches us anything it is for the peasants to always align their interest with the interest of the ruling masters.

In this case our demi-god politicians, since in a collapse of any sorts they will pull out all stops to save the assets they are invested in.

Pawan said...

If you guys have not yet noticed, please see where Sensex closed 4 years back? For the last 4 years, we are in negative returns territory. And we have not even adjusted for inflation.

If Sensex reaches 21,000 in Jan 2013 i.e., full one year from now and Sensex will have to return 35% for that this year (unlikely), then Sensex return for the last 5 years would have been zero.

Looking at the larger picture, this means that if you invested in 2002 at the bottom, your returns were 40% CAGR for first 5 years. For the 10 year period though, your returns would be about 20% only. And these are nominal.

Why is this happening? Economy grew at 8-9% these 10 years. Inflation was 5-6% on an average which leads to 14-15% returns. May be the markets were undervalued in 2002 so we got 20% CAGR instead of 15%.

RE was undervalued too in 2002. EMIs were twice the rent. Today they are 5 times. We probably will go to 3 times over the next few years. That means rents will rise and prices will fall in some combination.

Of course the govt. can always mess with the whole thing for the short term. Long term, we have reversion to mean coming up in big way for RE.

Anonymous said...

Dude Pawan you are thinking too much. There is a pent up demand for RE and no way RE is going to crash. If it goes down 10% other buyers will line up and keep the party going. Infact if the FDI in retail goes through real estate will double in the next year alone

Anonymous said...

whoever wrote this,

Read Bernier, Tavernier and Thevenot's travels in the 16th and 17th century India and you will notice numerous stories (these books are freely available to read on ipad, android, browser) -

I do not need to read some foreigner to know about Hindustan.

When will Indians ever get balls to stand on their own 2 feet and tell things as they are.

White people are worse educated than Indians( Asians in general), less cultured, less clean, less honest, less accountable compared to you or me if we are in the west.

Real estate is going to fall to realistic prices i.e. twice annual salaries for 2 BHK in tier 1 cities. Tier 2 should not even worry. 90% of apartments are going to remain vacant at the current prices.

As an NRI who makes 120k pounds per annum and wife who makes over 60k pounds annually, we make too much. We spend a lot but still too much disposable income left over. We live in a small 1 bed flat though our friends who earn less than us are in debt with 4 bed properties and effectively no savings.

Though eligible for British passport I choose to not to get the passport because when the situation gets dire in west, all the laws will be forgotten and the western savages will do what they have always done - loot the masses. Lots of NRI's will wake up with not enough wealth on the other side of the crisis.

This is 100% certain.

Who cares what happens to commoner Indians or Brits, I want to have enough tangible wealth to keep a few servants to work for me.

PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE ONLY WAY OUT.

NOT RUPEES OR DOLLARS OR POUND STERLING.

You have been warned.

Time out Bitchez.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 3:09 AM.

Hilarious comment man! :-D LOL
You are talking as if the world is coming to an end tomorrow. You are one of those self-claimed expert/genius, who speak anything without any reasoning/logic behind it. Talk logic man; don’t pour your sentiments here.

I’m not an investment expert. I’m very ordinary common person. I’m putting my thoughts below.

I read here that RE will drop by 50%. Do you understand what mess 50% drop will create? Will GOI allow it to happen? People talk as if there is no government; as if we are in very open, competitive and fair market. You saw yesterday how they made fun of Lokpal live in front of whole nation in a mutual choreographed act. Do you think these people will allow their thousands and crores go in vain in such ‘50%’ drop? Your government is not ready to name top 100 people who are loan defaulters to country’s lead bank. SBI writes off loans worth 1600crore for god know what reason and no one asks why? With such people and administration if anyone is expecting RE to crash then I would say that it does not make any sense. RE is flooded with politician’s money and they will go to any extent to save their ass. 10-15% drop can happen but crash is simply impossible. If any damn big event whose after effects are out of control of our politicians happens then only RE can crash. But, in that case hardly any one out of us will have money/guts to buy.

This is realty friends; we cannot run away from it. We are unfortunate to be in such mess. I’m not saying go and buy. Those who can wait can wait. But waiting shall have some limit; one cannot wait for his entire youth/life. If you are waiting to time the market then that is a big risk. I know a site which is priced some 13K per sq ft at swargate area in pune. 13K psf in pune??wtf But its fact. With such mad rates one can claim that prime area in Pune will fetch around 20K psf in a year. Few area in pune might already be fetching it e.g. Koregaon park. God knows.

Provide your thoughts regarding my view.
Don’t call me builder’s pimp and all. I’m not. There is one anon fellow here, who writes same dirty lines whenever anyone talks against RE crash. He writes go and buy more flats; he will rent for entire life. To that fellow, I already know what u can write so please don’t take any effort; thanks.
If you feel my view is wrong then give some reasons. Prove me wrong. I would be the happiest person if I get my RE forecast wrong. :|

Anonymous said...

Anon above: So black / corrupt money is chasing RE and will keep chasing RE. Correct!

But who's gonna buy at unaffordable level. Only way is to generate/create more black money i.e. more corruption.

God save us.

Anonymous said...

@Above:

Your view is totally flawed. GOI will definitely try to keep the RE afloat and even prop it up more. But market forces and sustainability is also something. USA has been trying hard for the past 5 years to re-inlfate their RE bubble but all in vain. They have tried massive stimulus to buyers and massive printing of money to cause inflation. But nothing is happening to RE prices. They are still going down.

Same would happen in India. GOI would not be able to do anything. When buyers are not there and inventory soars, when it would be hard to get loans and some banks default, when people will see paycuts and layoffs, GOI cannot do Squat. That would mean UPA will not get re-elected in next elections.

polt said...

@Pawan - "May be the markets were undervalued in 2002 so we got 20% CAGR instead of 15%."

Maybe the markets are still overvalued. So we might end up getting CAGR of 15% by end 2012 or 2013. My guess is that Mean reversion in stocks is still underway. Bear markets can also last years, decades even.

This year was carnage for some of the biggies. Unitech down 71%, SBI 40%, Tata steel 50% ...

RE will also face similar issues. But I still see programs on zee/cnbc advising people to invest in RE in several cities.

Anonymous said...

Anon above: you are missing the point. GOI doesn't have to do anything, they just have to turn blind eye to all corruption. Black money and corrupt money will take care of keeping RE up.

Remove corruption, bring all black to white and you will see shit mania.

USA doesn't have corrupt black money. They should allow black money system to see RE going up.

We can also discuss black money as one of credit expansion.

Anonymous said...

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html

Read this essay and see how its going to play out.

Pawan said...

@Polt
Maybe the markets are still overvalued. So we might end up getting CAGR of 15% by end 2012 or 2013.

As I said in my post, to get to 20% CAGR for the 10 year period we need a 35% rally this year. Highly unlikely! So yes CAGR may come to 15%. Very much possible.

Anonymous said...

@Black Money Anon:

Black money has always been in India. Re always used to sell 30-70B-W ratio. The issue to figure out is how come there is so much liquidity, black or white? The issue is massive liquidity printed by RBI/GOI that is in the market and money they have taken as debt from foreigners. This liquidity problem needs to be resolved which will correct most of the black money and we can be back to normalblack money standards India has always maintained.

The problem with RE downfall has to do with bigger issues like India's debt, India's banking system loaning money by borrowing, RBI printing presses that never halt, Europe situation etc.

Pawan said...

Infact if the FDI in retail goes through real estate will double in the next year alone.

Keep dreaming. FDI in retail will not help RE much. Let me explain why.

The maximum margin any business can make is when they are selling to the end customer - fleecing the retail crowd is easy.

Talk to people who supply to Walmart from India. They work on razor thin margins, meet strict quality standards and are still scared shit of not getting the order for next year because someone would be willing to supply the same at even lower cost to Walmart.

Why is commercial RE is in such a bad shape today? Because no builder can put tough conditions to an HDFC or an Infosys.

You think Walmart will come with bag fulls of money in India and distribute it to the idiotic builders and politicians in India? Well, Walmart has not become what they are by being stupid. Let them come to India and you will see all the high-flying builders and politicians queuing up to meet their bosses with their tails between their legs.

Krishna said...

@Anon 6:35 AM

So
"Black money + Govt + Politicians personal investment" combo will bail out RE Mess

Why RBI Keeps on raising interest rates? Why cant they bring it down and add firepower to the RE?


Socialist Govt will collapse one day.That is a fact. Look at EURO today?

Food security Bill alone will bring down the value of our currency.

Our currency lost value and we are begging Japan for help.


8% GDP Growth + 2% population growth + 6% inflation = No growth


And how our GDP is calculated?

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports – imports)

gross investment =FDI (Stranger Money )
government spending =Borrowed money(Stranger Money )
exports = Software Services (depends on stranger requirement )
imports = ( Computer, Flights,Jets,Ships,missiles...(Produced by strangers)


Now our GDP is growing because of the kindness of strangers (Words used by Buffet )

How long they will be kind?
FDI is out and our currency lost 15%
So it is not going to be

Anonymous said...

Stop comparing India nad US. In the US scores of people had taken 0 down teaser loans and then defaulted en masse. This is not the stor in India. Banks havent given 0 down loans. So people are not going to just foreclose their houses
The RE is not going to crash. Maybe comedown 10% but not crash

Anonymous said...

Read this article written in 2008
http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/india-real-estate-53534.aspx

It mentioned slowdown, crash etc but nothing happed. All these expert opinions are useless. RE is not going to crash in India ever.

Anonymous said...

To all nay sayers to Indian RE crash - Are you buying? Is it affordable to buy RE?

Let's say RE prices do not come down and there are few buyers... what happens to people who don't own RE? demand for rentals go up, therefore rental price goes up. What's next? One needs to earn to pay for rentals too... so where does that earning come from?

Anonymous said...

Anon above
Salaries are going up too. IT people are making 20 lakhs with 6 yrs experience. Every year double digit increase can offset rental increase. Besides ndian people have a lot of gold that they can sell now that gold proces are high. In India RE is and will still be the best investment. In any case it just takes one apartment to become rich

Anonymous said...

Is it affordable to buy RE?


There is no such thing as high prices. People have gotten used to high proces so they will always buy otherwise they know they will have to pay more next year. Remember when onions went to 100 per KG people still went and bought them Same with housing

Anonymous said...

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/political-climate-interest-rates-souring-indian-property-market-58454.aspx

Anonymous said...

How you can compare onion with RE ? You don't apply for loan or don't sell your gold to buy onion. Secondly can anyone here give me ballpark estimates how much gold each house hold has? To buy RE at current rate you need 4 kg of gold and gold is already down 20% from its peak value in terms of USD.

BTW which Indian company is paying 20 lakhs for person with 6 years of experience ? Pls let us I will be happy to join it.

Anonymous said...

Comparisons about onion snd re is not for numbers but for the attitude of the people. The point is everybody has got used to such high prices/numbers that a crash seems unlikely.
Read the link from the previous poster and came across this

In February 2009, Edelweiss forecast that the real estate sector would remain depressed over the next four years, and predicted that prices would decline by at least 30%.

People have been forecasting since 2009 but RE just went up

Anonymous said...

There are different circumstances now compared to 2008. During 2008, Indian government eased by increasing the money supply and by reducing interest rates. Now, due to high current account deficit, high budget deficit, and stubbornly high inflation they are not in position to do that. Remember that they need votes and inflation will be real turn-off for everyone especially poor people – their vote-bank. The current account deficit and budget deficit are on unsustainable path and they are in what is considered danger zone for emerging economy. Their borrowing cost is increasing and inflation is not coming down.
The deficit will remain high unless economy picks up. If the current policy continues then India will be staring at increasing balance of payment deficit – not a happy situation. Remember, 1990s when balance of payment caused India to reform and that was the time when real-estate prices went down. Perhaps, most of the real-estate bulls in India were toddlers then and don’t have any memory of that – lol. So, what is the way out? Since, India runs current account deficit they have to reform and encourage FDI and subsequent increase in FII. Whatever reform India has done has run its course and it will not bring any more dividends.
A GDP growth of 5% ( 3.5% labor pool increase + 1% capital + 0.5% TFP) will not be enough to absorb the addition to the labor pool. Therefore, 5% growth will feel like recession and it will be catalyst in holding the increase in salary.
The basic economics can be defied for a short period – may be up to 5-10 years. But, it catches up with you, sooner or later.

- ComputerWala

Pawan said...

Comparisons about onion snd re is not for numbers but for the attitude of the people. The point is everybody has got used to such high prices/numbers

Totally wrong. I know first hand for a fact that people stopped buying Onions. Just like they have stopped buying Gold and RE now. If prices keep going up, Sales will come down provided incomes remain same.

I had said this to my friends sometimes in 2008 that people are spending a disproportionate amount of their income on RE. Upto 70-80% of their take home pay in some cases. That was possible because rest of the expenses could be met with remaining 20-30% pay. And I said that pretty soon everything else will also become expensive and people will have to spend more money for primary articles and will have less money to spare for RE. After all a grain trader also needs to make money just like a builder. That has happened.

So even if your take home is 1L today, you can not afford an EMI of 80K which is what you will have to pay after putting in 20L in down payment for that 1 Cr. house (And additional 10L for taxes, brokerage etc).

As for salary increase in IT, yes, between 2004-2007, we were getting 15-20% hikes and inflation was 5-6% then. From 2008-2011, average hike has been 8-12% and inflation has been 8-12% too so purchasing power has not gone up in the last 3-4 years (I talk of IT companies). House prices meanwhile continued to increase and the divergence between incomes/affordability and RE prices is more than ever.

The best and most objective metric is EMI to rent ratio. It was 2 in 2003-2004 and is 5 or more now. Even if prices do not fall, you have to be insane to buy at these prices.

Anonymous said...

Realty crash or not to many extent will depends on how IT sector will be played out in 2012.

IT market in the USA is pretty hot. Not long ago billing rate on
W2 was in the range of 50-60/hr but now for the same position it is now zoomed to 75/hr on W2. I assume actual billing rate would be around 100+ /hr.

It is yet to be seen if such rate will be provided to the Indian IT companies. As long as IT companies are located in Noida/Pune/Banglore/Chennai it is very unlikely prices will drop by 50%.

I think, as long as IT outsourcing story is intact, there is no realty crash in India

polt said...

Prices in the Tricity ( Chandigarh,Mohali,Panchkula) decline by up to 30% . So much for the "RE will not decline here" thesis. Though to be fair this is only one geographical sample. The real test will be the NCR/Mumbai/Bangalore markets.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20111231/real.htm#2

Note that a 30% fall means prices have to rise almost 45% to reach the original values again.

Anonymous said...

There is no way I will buy outsourcing services from India at $100/hr. At that rate I get the resources to work here on-site. Off-site US rate is in the range of 80-90. That too for large US companies. My company forbids outsourcing to other countries. Outsourcing hubs here in US is being developed in places like San Antonio where the rate is in 60s -- yes that is $65/hr to company.

Dream on for IT wages in India to far outpace the inflation. India has been loosing competitive advantage. US companies has been building outsourcing hubs in South America, Eastern Europe and inexpensive cities here is US.

Still, price correction of RE in India may be slow and to the tune of 20-30% in nominal terms. In foreign exchange terms it may be 50%+ unless government reforms, in which case total correction may not be more than 20% in nominal terms and up to 35-40% in foreign currency terms. Without additional reform Rupees will touch high 50s by 2013. If reforms happen then Rupees may hold around 50. Don’t forget to factor double digit inflation in computing the correction in real terms to be more than 50%+ when all said and done by 2015-2016!

- ComputerWala

Anonymous said...

To all those comparing US and India the scenarios are different. US does not have the concept of nationalised banks. Secondly loans given in US were 0 down loans with teaser interests. Also when people lost values in their homes they did not resort to looting/street fighting.
In India most of the lending is done by nationalized banks and too big to fail private banks like ICICI. Even with the economic downturn the Govt through nationalized banks is pumping money in Air India/King fisher. In real estate politicialns/burocrats of all people are heavily invested. If there is a 50% crash do you think people are going to be silent and let prices fall as happened in US. A lot of them are going to revolt openly an politicains will do whatever it takes to pump money. Besides a lot of Indians are not exposed to RE problems in other countries and for them RE is the only investment that goes up. So people are going to buy on downturns.
If RE crashes by 50% India will be the worst place to live just because of such a huge angry population. A lot of people in the real estate sector will loose their jobs. What are they going to do. I belive RE might go down by 10% at max and prices will remain stagnant but no way there will be a 30-50% crash

Anonymous said...

There is no way I will buy outsourcing services from India at $100/hr

The business model adopted by Indian companies is different. When you look at fresher salaries they have not gone up significantly in the last 10 years. Moreover the kind of work taken by the services companies do not need computer engineers. In the last few years these companies have started recruiting BSc/BCom guys and trained them. They can be paid low starting salaries which will keep the outsourcing rates low. As these people move up they will get salary hikes and will again be repalced by low cost freshers. So while the service companies can maintain the low billing rate there is an oppurtunity for experienced people to make higher salaries in a few years

Anonymous said...

BTW which Indian company is paying 20 lakhs for person with 6 years of experience ? Pls let us I will be happy to join it.

Look at this. Freshers are offered salaries from 15 to 20 lakhs

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/IIT-H-grads-snap-up-hefty-pay-packs/articleshow/11299199.cms

Pawan said...

If there is a 50% crash do you think people are going to be silent and let prices fall as happened in US. A lot of them are going to revolt openly an politicains will do whatever it takes to pump money.


First point: politicians will pump money.

You need to have money to pump money. In India, there is a general election coming up in 2014. The politicians will need money for that. Stock markets are down and so are business earnings. Businessmen will not be able to help much. Where will the money come from?

Politicians will have to sell their properties to generate money to fight those elections so you will see fire sales happening in 2012 and 2013. They will mandate the builders/dealers to dispose off properties at substantially reduced prices discreetly. One has to go and find those sellers because those discounts will not be advertised on magicbricks. Idiots like you will keep seeing the rates on magicbricks and feel happy that prices have not gone down.

Second point: People will revolt.

People would be happy to see RE prices fall. They will rejoice and dance in the streets. If by people you mean property dealers then I would love to see them rising up in revolt. It will be the first of its kind. Ha Ha Ha.

RE is the only investment that goes up.
Blah blah blah
I belive RE might go down by 10% at max


If it always goes up, why would it go down even 10%? And if it can go down 10%, what will stop it from going down another 10% and so on.

Pawan said...

http://www.firstpost.com/fwire/indias-gold-imports-fall-20-on-surging-inflation-says-global-council-133400.html

Where is the idiot who was saying people will keep buying Gold because Indians like to spend on marriages.

d2thdr said...

The currency will be sacrificed to keep the system going. Thats a fact. The socialist leaning governments all over the world do this. The Indian govt will also sacrifice rupee to keep the existing RE and the debt market going. Debt gives them the power.
India is well and truly fcuked. Indian aam aadmi will suffer as he is primarily a debtor. Fortunately we are living in a easy money time. If this was the hard money time, we would have seen a outcome like French Revolution- guillotines and the rivers of blood of the ruling classes.

The politicians and the rich who own most of the debt are also close to the printing presses of the RBI. They will get their money at full face value. What trickles down will not buy as much as it did.

Please read 'When Currency Dies' by Adam Fergusson.

The idea that we'll wake up one day to discover that the international monetary system has been "reset" and that our rupee/dollar/euro/yen savings have taken a huge hit (while the local currency value of our gold and silver soar) reminds me of an exchange in The Virgin's Lover, by Philippa Gregory (yes, I like historical romances).

d2thdr said...

The year is 1560 and the young queen Elizabeth rules a country nearly bankrupted by a Spanish alliance that produced only war and debt. The English treasury has been systemically debasing its coins by clipping and shaving them, so that their face value vastly exceeds their gold content.

Elizabeth's advisors have decided that the monetary system needs to be reset, and have been importing borrowed gold. On the appointed day they intend to call in the circulating coins and replace them -- by weight rather than face value -- with newly-minted coins. This devaluation will transfer citizens' wealth to the government, impoverishing the former and enriching the latter. And if all goes as planned it will come as a surprise to most of the country.

But Elizabeth's lover, Sir Robert Dudley, learns of the plan and is not happy:
Elizabeth turned and smiled at him and took his hand and held it to her cheek. "My Robert."

"Tell me, my pretty love," Robert said quietly. "Why are you bringing in boatloads of Spanish gold from Antwerp, and how are you paying for it all?"

She gave a little gasp and the color went from her face, the smile from her eyes. "Oh," she said. "That."

"Yes," he replied evenly. "That. Don't you think you had better tell me what is going on?"

"How did you find out? It is supposed to be a great secret."

"Never mind," he said. "But I am sorry to learn that you still keep secrets from me, after your promises."

"I was going to tell you," she said at once. "It is just that Scotland has driven everything from my mind."

"I am sure," he sad coldly. "For if you had continued with your forgetfulness till the day that you called in the old coin and issued new, I would have been left with a small treasure room filled with dross, would I not? And left at a substantial loss, would I not? Was it your intention that I should suffer?"

Elizabeth flushed. "I didn't know you were storing small coin."

"I have lands; my tenants do not pay their rents in bullion, alas. I have trading debts which are paid in small coin. I have chests and chests of pennies and farthings. Do tell me what I may get for them?"

"A little more than their weight," she said in a very small voice.

"Not their face value?"

She shook her head in silence. "We are calling in the coins and issuing new," she said. "It is Gresham's plan -- you know of it yourself. We have to make the coins anew."

Robert let go of her hand and walked to the center of the room while she sat and watched him wondering what he would do. She realized that the sinking feeling in her belly was apprehension. For the first time in her life she was afraid what a man was thinking of her -- not for policy but for love.

"Robert, don't be angry with me. I didn't mean to disadvantage you," she said and heard the weakness in her own voice.

"I know," he said shortly. "It is partly that which amazes me. Did you not think that this would cost me money?"

She gasped. "I only thought it had to be a secret, a tremendous secret, or everyone will trade among themselves and the coins will be worse and worse regarded," she said quickly. "It is an awful thing, Robert, to know that people think that your very coins are next to worthless."

It will happen. We will all watch this space.

Buy physical gold...not etf, gol funds, shares etc.

Anonymous said...

50% OCCUPANCY rate when NRI's purchase the property. They all think that they will go back and retire in India. Bad roads, bad traffic, no water, lack of electricity and a 1 crore 3 bed room flat, good luck. If they rent the house they will get 2-3 % return instead of 10% in the bank.

Anonymous said...

Jet has started cutting salaries
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Jet-cuts-trainee-co-pilots-pay-from-Rs-1-3L-to-Rs-50k/articleshow/11330884.cms

Very soon others will follow.

Anonymous said...

Guys I believe 2012 will be the watershed year for Indian RE.

In the past three years after the 2008 packages caused this huge hype and increased the fiscal deficit. Now with a slowdown the gov is worried about this. There will be new taxes and interest rates will not come down soon due to inflation

http://profit.ndtv.com/News/Article/govt-s-priority-is-to-control-budget-deficit-in-2012-prime-minister-manmohan-singh-295149

samix said...

Pawan, With respect to Gold, India planning to free gold dore imports

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=141534&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Property in Mumbai said...

Hi, thanks for providing us information. Please keep posting similar type of informative news.

Anonymous said...

Only recently did I realize that when they say NRI and realty in the same sentence that it mostly means the non-US crowd, that is the ones in middle east including Dubai.

Being in US, one has to follow rules and it is not as simple as just investing and taking the gains.

The major impediment to investing in India is the black money component. If an NRI wants to buy property, the seller demands at least 60% of the price in black, so the buyer has to convert his/her white to black for the seller. Say a 10 lakh property is registered for 4 lakh with 6 lakh being black. At a later date when the same property is sold for 20 lakh registered amount, then the capital gain is (20-4)=16 lakh on which appropriate taxes need to paid in India/US. Actually the gain is only 10 lakh and taxes should have been paid on this amount, but the black component in the initial transaction shows up as a gain in the second transaction. I only hope more NRIs realize this huge loss.

Anonymous said...

"Being in US, one has to follow rules and it is not as simple as just investing and taking the gains."

The scenario you have posted applies to all NRIs, including Gulf residents. The fact that you reside in a tax-free jurisdiction (like the Gulf) does not relieve you of the obligation to pay capital gains tax on sale of property. The US and India may of course have treaties to prevent dual taxation.

Anonymous said...

Actually the gain is only 10 lakh and taxes should have been paid on this amount, but the black component in the initial transaction shows up as a gain in the second transaction. I only hope more NRIs realize this huge loss.

Actually, NRIs can again take a large component in black. Then, convert it to gold coins, stuff it in your rectum and fly to the US.

Either ways, you get something painful stuffed into your ass: gold or capital gains, might as well be gold, right?

Ankan said...

Useful information, thanks good one keep posting!

Anonymous said...

It’s easy to predict things, such as the crash of the housing market, but the “when” part is much more difficult.

Ankan said...

great post.thank you very much.good work!

Ankan said...

Thanks for the great sharing.

Ankan said...

Thanks for the great sharing.

Ankan said...

Awesome collection! Thank you for taking the time!

Anonymous said...

WTF! What's wrong with you Ankan?

Anonymous said...

Absolute silence on all blogs about the state of the market?

Calm before the storm or just the beginning of a long appreciation-less consolidation phase?

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muthu swami said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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