Sunday, June 24, 2012

Lux is up: realtors confident that housing prices will not dip

Another feeble attempt by the paid news media to sucker buyers into their trap 

If the Indian economy is booming Mumbai property goes up. 

If the Indian economy is slowing Mumbai property goes up. 

These morons think that Mumbaikars are lemmings. What is constant in Mumbai is the generation of black money. This could be responsible for the rise in property till now during boom times. However when everything is slow, black money generation too has to be slow. 

If existing investors have their black money stuck with builders, how can they take profits and invest in the next venture. I spoke to a broker who said, "Investor ka paisa atka hain, he is ready to discount the price" however the project is delayed so which person in the right mind will buy from the investor when the builder is running out of money. This is in Vile Parle.

I forsee this situation all over Mumbai. Its best to buy I keep repeating ready to move in or resales. This market is stuck in the muck for many years to come. Demand for housing will remain, the smart investor will bring cash to the table and take a discount. Anyone going for too good to be true deals will be slaughtered mercilessly by the brokers 

 Hindustan Times report 

 As the Indian economy slows down, the real estate sector, with its back to the wall, remain gung-ho that prices will not dip any time soon. 

 In a recent realty event in Mumbai organised by CII, top property developers aired confidence that prices in residential realty would remain high. “There is pressure on developers, but that is because of the delays by the state government,” said Sandeep Runwal, director, Runwal Group, a Mumbai-based developer. “The delays are affecting the prices as it would only increase the cost for developers.” And the costs are likely to be passed on to customers. 

 According to data compiled by international real estate consultants, about 60% of projects launched in metros fall in the luxury category. However, private investors seem to be taking a cautious approach, and are only going in for smaller projects with smaller tenure of investment. “We are treading cautiously and want that the project we invest in is priced conservatively,” said Ramesh Jogani, managing director, Indiareit, a private equity arm of the Piramal Group. 

“We are giving preference to smaller projects over bigger ones.” Commercial realty, however, is a different story, with rentals under pressure. “The situation has improved (recently) as the demand and supply currently match, but if supply increases, there would be a pressure on rentals in commercial real estate,” said Cherag Ramakrishnan, CEO, Equinox Realty, the real estate arm of Essar Group.

119 comments:

SKG said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
SKG said...

>>>

If the Indian economy is booming Mumbai property goes up.

If the Indian economy is slowing Mumbai property goes up.
>>>

Didn't we talk about this in earlier posts that this is part of "India is different" and "This time is different" argument?

Of all can we have some discussion on whether people are willing to work to pay EMIs life long (may be generations as in Japan) or live the life-:)

-SKG

Anonymous said...

Realtors are Realtwhores. Don't listen to this uneducated class of parasites.

Anonymous said...

This is interesting. Even after spending 2 cr on a house there is no guarantee that you will get it. Also dont understand how people paying such large amounts dont insist on receipts of agreements upfront

http://www.mid-day.com/news/2012/jun/240612-Court-raps-cops.htm

Anonymous said...

Middle class is now the tenant class. Builders have realized there is no point in marketing to this segment.

Rich folks have the means and will continue to do well. Infact, a recession is when the rich do really well!

Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/jobs/asias-investment-banks-and-brokerages-launch-round-of-job-cuts/articleshow/14383776.cms

Pawan said...

http://www.firstpost.com/investing/smart-money-is-giving-realty-aviation-power-the-go-by-355974.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE

polt said...

@Pawan - "http://www.firstpost.com/investing/smart-money-is-giving-realty-aviation-power-the-go-by-355974.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE"

If the media is saying that smart money is leaving the sector, then it is probably turned a corner. Just like when stocks are rising, most average investors enter at the peak and lose money. In this case, most folks will probably dump stocks after they have already fallen a lot.

If everyone is saying 'it will rise' it probably has peaked already. Same is true for the 'it will fall' sentiment as well.


In fact, the power index is now trading at around 13 times earnings and has a dividend yield of 2%. For someone with patience and a long term view, this is quite an attractive valuation.

aam aadmi said...

It's off topic but still relevant...I think there was a vigorous debate previously about whether govt is evil or good, the answer is neither...it's a problem solving mechanism and sometimes it fixes things and sometimes makes them worse.

Here's an example of UPA II doing something good

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/toilet-should-be-a-constitutional-right-for-every-woman-ramesh/966561/

Jairam Ramesh is pursuing this toilet agenda vigorously and IMO basic sanitation is one of the critical differences between a third world life and a first world. Of course these things are not mentioned in media because we have a one sided view of world.

aam aadmi said...

@polt
Taking a contrarian position sometimes makes sense but not when signs of slowdown are evident all around.

Pawan said...

@Polt,

Did you miss the `smart money` part?

The article says that banks are no longer lending to these sectors. That's a warning sign because this not only affects sentiment, it actually cuts the finance flow to the sector.

Anonymous said...

Rupee crash will support RE prices..RE in india may fall 25-30% but it would still be substantially up from 2002...Rs is likely to fall to 70 against dollar in 1-2 yrs...

Anonymous said...

"Right to ..." lists are good for reading, makes us feel noble about ourselves. UN also recognizes "right to housing" a human right.

// “Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control” //

Yea, I can totally see India able to provide housing and welfare to old people and unemployed.

polt said...

@Pawan - "Did you miss the `smart money` part?"

No I did not. My point was that media (and public) are always late to the game. The smart money has already left a long time ago. (See share values of RE/Power firms). If everyone knows it, then it is not 'smart'.

It is the dumb money that is now pulling out. Banks are hiding huge losses and rolling over some loans in the hope of payback.

Anonymous said...

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=332809

//////////

"People are buying. I've never seen a rush like this before. We sold 47 units in the last week in states such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh," said Bahrain-based Palms International Property assistant manager Merwyn Ferrao.

Indians' traditional appetite for gold has been replaced by increasing demand to own property.

"Land has always given more returns than anything. The value of gold has gone down. Indians have lost their appetite for gold and fixed deposits and are investing in land now," Mr Ferrao said.

//////////

Anonymous said...

Please Pass what NRI's are smoking. I know a lot of 'rich' NRI's underwater on the properties in the US.

Except for maybe 10% of NRI's in Gelf most are low paying jobs. Where is this money coming from? Must investigate.

Anonymous said...

This is going to be fun now

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Job-offers-dry-up-as-economy-faces-the-heat/articleshow/14404804.cms

aam aadmi said...

^Tip of the iceberg. The basic problem is that there's simply too much money in the world right now and the combined claims (present + future) of all the people simply don't match up to the resources present.

We are looking at a decade or two of depression, the value of money will be destroyed either through inflation or purchasing power will come down through deflation.

aam aadmi said...

contd..
Of course both can happen at the same time as well..and is probably happening right now. Real wages have stagnated and price of essentials keeps going up.

DhImAn said...

... purchasing power will come down through deflation.

Umm, you've got it wrong, buddy. In a deflation, purchasing power goes up.

aam aadmi said...

^You are right, I should have put it differently, in a deflation the capacity of economy to consume comes down drastically.

Anonymous said...

Mukul,

Watch out this is what going to happen in India, just be prepared. If you wanna buy buy or rent. But be prepared.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/26/12370209-spains-economic-crisis-turns-middle-class-families-into-illegal-squatters?lite

Anonymous said...

let's repeat:
1. India is not USA
2. India is not Spain
3. India is not Greece
4. India is not Australia
5. India is not Gulf
6. India is DIFFERENT !!

Does all these countries have what India has - corruption, black money, cheap low quality laborers, population ? NO

so stop comparing India to other countries.

Anonymous said...

India can keep on printing. The more rupees they print, the more RE goes up, because of phoerign inflow. So the only way to keep the RE bubble up is "print away" on the worthless rupee

SKG said...

>>>>>
Does all these countries have what India has - corruption, black money, cheap low quality laborers, population ? NO
>>>>>

The real question here is the presence of all the above phenomenons DOES make India different,But having all of them in one place doesn't it make country more vulnerable to problems like bubbles? if nothing then it certainly is calling for trouble at least.

-SKG

Anonymous said...

"1. India is not USA
2. India is not Spain
3. India is not Greece
4. India is not Australia
5. India is not Gulf
6. India is DIFFERENT !!

Does all these countries have what India has - corruption, black money, cheap low quality laborers, population ? NO

so stop comparing India to other countries."

Yes exactly, these countries are much better and honest than India.
So if they fall they can get up again.

India is worst. Like any criminal who becomes rich and they when he falls he falls to dust never to get up again, India will meet the same fate.

You loser go on praising india. After all i wouldnt surpised if you support black money. lol

Your place is in HELL. Even you know that.

Getafix said...

@Dhiman, Aam Aadmi, Kulbir:

You guys have stated and established that the root cause of the bubble is credit expansion caused by the loose monetary policies by the governments and central banks.

So what do you think will cause a reversal of these policies which may help in the bursting of this bubble?

As of now it does not look like there is any prospect of raising of the interest by the Fed. And it is extremely unlikely that the RBI will further tighten the liquidity or raise interest rates any further.

Anonymous said...

Getafix:

RBI will maintain a loose monetary policy but India will get screwed on deficit front. When nMoodys also downgrades it in a few months, the cost to borrow money will go very high. GOI will not be able to borrow much and a lot of projects will stall. Which is a ripple affect. More job losses, Foreign investors fleeing, Rupee declining further and when the sentiment goes negative all the RE investors will become sellers. Once prices fall even 10%, many more people will put their homes for sale which will increase inventory even higher.

RBI will also get problems with high inflation. I think in a scenario of low growth and high inflation, there could be civil unrest. This is called stagflation.

aam aadmi said...

@Getafix
So what do you think will cause a reversal of these policies which may help in the bursting of this bubble?

This reminds me of a quote

Prediction is very hard, especially about the future - Yogi Berra :-)

Jokes apart I honestly have no idea what will cause CB's to reverse their policies. It has to be something unpredictable because it's the least understood issues that snowball into big problems.

What I can definitely do is put a sort of upper limit on real GDP or growth. And that limit is $140-150 (in 2012 dollars) for one barrel of Brent crude. If prices breach this level you are going to see economies collapse back into depression.

To be frank even I was hoping for some spectacular collapse like 2008, but looks like CB's of the world will prevent an all out destruction, what we get instead is an agonizingly slow collapse.

Anonymous said...

Before 1990s if somebody deposited Rs 1000 in a 'nationalized' bank, the govt will take it and 'spend' it on useless projects. Ordinary folks did not get any morgage from our nationaized bank unless they know the right people. No loan No house. The politicians who stole money from the bank, bought real estate for Rs 1000 (lets exxagerate and assume they stole everything). So Total available money to buy real estate was Rs 1000.

No when somebody deposited in a private bank, they turn around and leverage it at least 10 times and loan Rs 10,000 (10 x 1000). So ordinary folks have access to morgate to buy real eastate for 10,000 .i.e 10 times the politician who stole all the money.

whenever the price of an asset increases (tulip, stock, gold,anything) , herd mentality takes over and people put all their savings (black moeny of ordinary folks) money in that asset. So it goes up.


The politicians still steal money and invest into RE. They will always do. Also it is bit diffcult to do hawala on large amounts these days.

When a asset goes up it takes the stairs, but when it comes down it takes the elevator. people go mad in herds, but they regain their senses one by one. They always do.

Pawan said...

@Getafix
So what do you think will cause a reversal of these policies which may help in the bursting of this bubble?

I don't think these policies will be reversed. Think what will cause a collapse despite the loose money policies.

Anonymous said...

"I don't think these policies will be reversed. Think what will cause a collapse despite the loose money policies."

Weren't you on the record here a few months back insisting that Indian RE won't correct in INR terms?

My, how you vacillate...

Kulbir said...

People usually forget that it is not only newly printed money which is invested in real estate but also multi-generational saving is being put into it as well as future saving as people taking out loans are basically investing their future saving in real estate in anticipation that it will appreciate.
Money printing can get the bubble started but to sustain it you need herd behavior mentality.
In 2007 when Sensex was rising people were rushing in to stocks like DLF, Unitech etc but today these shares are languishing, why so? RBI has not stopped money printing and these companies have not changed their business models drastically for the negative so what changed, it is the perception of value that has changed in the minds of investor.
The day people realize that real estate is overvalued it will start its long journey downwards.
One more thing I get disturbed by the thinking that money printing can stop real estate prices from declining, please read some something about hyper inflationary episodes in economic history. Every time a currency hyper inflates housing and rents decline drastically as a percentage of total expenses of households. I am sure that our currency will have to hyper inflate in order to stop housing prices to decline in nominal terms and in such a scenario you should only be concerned about feeding your family than thinking about your real estate.
Real estate in India is a super bubble. By any fundamental valuation method Indian real estate is overvalued at least 3 to 4 times so it will have have to correct by 60 to 70 percent before any value emerges in it.
Mark my words "Rents will match EMI's one day" and that will be the time to invest in real estate and until that happens keep on arguing on this blog.
Thanks

skeptics ghost said...

@aam aadmi

What I can definitely do is put a sort of upper limit on real GDP or growth. And that limit is $140-150 (in 2012 dollars) for one barrel of Brent crude. If prices breach this level you are going to see economies collapse back into depression.


Oil is overpriced even at current 85-90 $ to the barrel.
Given the technology we have and proven reserves, oil should only be about 50-60$ a barrel.

Sadly all parties, oil drillers, refiners, state oil cos and the liberal pro-green energy industry have vested interest to cut production and keep oil prices high.

http://azizonomics.com/2012/06/16/what-peak-oil/

Back to Real Estate - With CBs printing in unison, RE price measured in fiat currency rise, RE price in terms of ounces of gold remain stable.

Example The property I bought in 2009 for 3000 rspsqft is now 6000 rs per sq ft.

however gold was around 800$ an ounce then, and rupee was about 43$ (1 oz was 40000 Rs)
in Todays rupee price for 1 troy ounce is 1550 x 57 ~ 90,000 INR

(Like oil, even the gold prices are rigged by hoarding.)

In gold terms I have already lost 12% + interest on loan + maintenance - the fact is do I regret it? No - because I have almost paid my home off.

skeptics ghost said...

Also people who think Gold is safe haven are mostly wrong. Gold in peace times is merely like oil, coffee or wheat commodity trades.

Fiat money in the past could not be controlled as it is today thanks to electronic money. Paper money (actually printed currency) and is a small fraction of the 60 Trillion $ odd wealth of all nations combined. Now fiat money is just a number in a database. Central bankers dont back it with anything tangible - they dont have to - no one is holding a gun on their head to not print. With computers they dont have to actually print. (Merkel is trying really hard to not print in Europe - she wont be able to without using force.Unless of course there is a war and collapse of society's infrastructure to transact using fiat money this will continue.)

skeptic's ghost said...

Also GOLDINR chart from Zerohedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/will-india-implement-first-executive-order-6102-21st-century

Anonymous said...

Real estate in India is a super bubble. By any fundamental valuation method Indian real estate is overvalued at least 3 to 4 times so it will have have to correct by 60 to 70 percent before any value emerges in it.
Mark my words "Rents will match EMI's one day"


Rents will continue to rise and prices will remain stagnant in nominal terms.

In real terms Indian RE is already declining.

DhImAn said...

So what do you think will cause a reversal of these policies which may help in the bursting of this bubble?

Getafix: Nothing will cause a reversal in these policies. No politician will want to be the one on whom the blame goes for crashing the economy. Understand that politics is a cover-your-ass-and-pass-the-blame operation, so nobody will do anything that is even remotely likely to prick the bubble.

The bubble will pop, not because of the banks' unwillingness to lend, but because of people's unwillingness to borrow.

Extrapolate the bubble - let it grow bigger. That would mean that people would have to pay more EMI; but there is a finite upper limit on EMI.

This means that at least that subset of people who are borrowing money to buy RE will stop at some point.

That will reduce demand, and that will put downward pressure on prices.

If you just leave it all alone, the bubble must simply burst of its own accord. That is just plain mathematics, that is simply nature.

If you are mathematically inclined, the proof is trivially simple - use reductio ad absurdum.

1. Let us assume that the bubble will never burst.

2. Then it follows that real estate prices will continue to climb forever.

A. If people's affordability climbs faster or at the same rate, then by definition, RE is not in a bubble, i.e., the bubble has already burst.

B. If people's affordability doesn't climb as fast as RE, then ultimately prices will be so high that nobody will be able to afford any house at all, and sales volume will become zero.

Statement A is the trivial case. Statement B is clearly absurd - infinite price with zero sales volume - but this is the obvious consequence of the bubble not bursting.

Therefore, since B is absurd and cannot happen, our assumption in statement 1 must be wrong (this is how the reductio-ad-absurdum proof works), and thus mathematically, the bubble must burst.

aam aadmi said...

Sadly all parties, oil drillers, refiners, state oil cos and the liberal pro-green energy industry have vested interest to cut production and keep oil prices high.

http://azizonomics.com/2012/06/16/what-peak-oil/

I only have one advice for you. Stop reading that idiot's blog. He has no experience or insight in this field.

I can give you more data on oil in a week than Aziz will ever give in his entire lifetime. This will once again go into off topic so I will desist. If you want to know about the situation about oil read blogs by petroleum geologists who have been working in this field for past 40 years. Ted Patzek is one of them...google him up. Matthew R Simmons (long time oil analyst, now deceased) is another one and of course the father of them all, Marion King Hubbert. You can also read Dr Kjell Alekett's writings.

This is another one of those stupid conspiracy theories that someone is cutting back on oil production, the fact is that everyone's pumping their heart out at the moment. And pray tell me why this manipulation only started in late 2003 ? See EIA's world crude + condensate production since 2005. Overlay that on world oil prices and you will understand what I am talking about.

Pawan said...

Weren't you on the record here a few months back insisting that Indian RE won't correct in INR terms?

I said that a 20% correction in INR will happen any time but not a significant (for most people) 50-60% correction. Beyond 20%, there will be a slow grind as rents catch up with sane EMI multiples and this may go on till 2020.

Pawan said...

Root cause of all evil: Money supply up 3 times from 2006. Ridiculous.

http://capitalmind.in/2012/06/rbi-debases-our-currency-by-15-p-a-since-2001/

Skeptics ghost said...

@ aam aadmi
If oil was nearly as dear as they claim, prices would have beer fallen today it fell again to 3.30 Us$ to the gallon

(Natural gas is selling lower than cost price in North America Plus there is enough coal in a single coal field in Montana to power US for 150 years at present rate
There are huge amount of uranium reserves all over the planet )
Add the fact that developed world is aging and birth rates are almost negative means that demand will remain stifled
Even emerging markets population is stabilizing at best
This only means that demand will taper out as people run out f things to do and places to go and not enough are born to replace them

aam aadmi said...

@SkepticGhost
If oil was nearly as dear as they claim, prices would have beer fallen today it fell again to 3.30 Us$ to the gallon

I didn't get the meaning of your sentence properly. Are you saying that oil isn't dear enough ? Please check US per gallon prices for the year 2002-03. Gasoline sold at average of $1-2 per gallon in those days. In 90's it sold for 89-90 cents per gallon. How can you say that gasoline is not dear enough ? Now go back and see the price of a lays chips packet or any other consumer commodity from 90's and see the price now, the price rise for both commodities doesn't add up. Which clearly means that it's not a function of inflation alone.

In 2003 the average price of oil per barrel was around $22 per barrel, in 2005 it went to $55 and in 2008 touched an all time high of $148 but fell down again, lowering the average.

But in 2011 the average prices crossed $100 for the first time ever in the history of the world. Do you realize the importance of the term 'for the first time ever' ??

In terms of CAGR that's a price rise of 17.46% per year from 02 to 11. Now again go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's and see the average price of oil, except for a brief period in the 70's when the embargo was in effect, you will notice that oil prices have been remarkably consistent at around $20 per barrel. So what changed in 03-05 ? It's a good question and I will be glad to answer.

See the EIA's annual oil production charts from 02 to 11. You will see that growth in world oil production which has been consistent for past 50 years comes to a grinding halt in 2005.

In spite of prices doubling from $55 to 100 conventional oil production has not gone up and is stubbornly stuck at around 75 mbopd (million barrels of oil per day) for past 7 years.

Now this is where I blow a hole in your conspiracy theory, according to which producers are voluntarily cutting production. I ask this question again to you...why is it that producers have started cutting oil only in 2005 and not before that ? And even if you say that there is some conspiracy, you might want to take a look at the oil production data around the world. Most of the oil is not produced by private companies like Chevron or Shell but by nationalized companies like Petrobas, CNOOC, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, PDVSA etc. These are countries which are desperate for more oil not just to boost revenue but also to satisfy their own economies, why would they voluntarily cut production ? It doesn't make any sense.

Also it doesn't make sense for US companies to increase gas prices by cutting production because the biggest election issue in America is high gas prices. Presidents lose or win terms based on that.
Contd...

aam aadmi said...

Contd...
As far as NG prices go, don't get confused by US prices, they are a local function of depressed demand and short term over-production. NG market in US is local, NG cannot be exported easily because of lack of infra which is why prices are depressed. If the NG market was global like Oil, prices would be much higher. In fact they already are, see the prices at which India imports NG or Japan imports it.

And I never said that we are running out of coal or uranium, you have to remember that we don't have an energy crisis yet but a liquid fuels crisis. All that coal or uranium in the world is useless because we can't meaningfully use electricity in transport. As of right now currently about 50-100 trillion dollars of equipment in the world uses oil. It is going to cost as much to make them run on electricity, where do you think the money and technology is going to come from ?

And as far as coal goes let me clear some misgivings that you may have....all that coal which is left isn't of very high grade, we mined the best coal i.e. anthracite first and now we are left with bituminous or lignite. The energy content of lignite is so low that it's a loss to ship it and burn it somewhere else. Power plants must be built right beside the coal fields which renders most coal reserves worthless for export, this is primarily the reason why India is importing coal right now, we haven't run out of reserves, but we have run out of the best grade coal.

About nuclear, it's a solution yes (which ain't cheap) but as I already mentioned before, we don't need more electricity, we need black gold to move our vehicles. It's a critical void that can't be filled easily.

Argue with me when you have some solid data or anything other than conspiracy theories. I've been studying energy situation for years and the data is quite clear and unambiguous. The end result is written in stone.

Well I did what I said I wouldn't do...commented on energy in an RE blog. Feel free to delete these comments if you feel it's off topic...but I felt that certain misconceptions need to be cleared.

DingDing said...

@aam aadmi

thanks for those links.

Anonymous said...

"Well I did what I said I wouldn't do...commented on energy in an RE blog. Feel free to delete these comments if you feel it's off topic...but I felt that certain misconceptions need to be cleared."

@Aam aadmi,

I'm one of the persons who objected to the off-topic posts in the previous threads.

With respect, posts like yours are not off-topic at all. The relative value of commodities (including energy) relative to the rest of the economy is a critical factor in understanding how credit, inflation and purchasing power affect asset prices, including real estate (the raison d'etre for this board).

Discussions about the economy, energy, asset prices, stocks, etc. are certainly NOT off-topic. Asset prices are correlated, RE does not exist in a vaccuum and is strongly influenced by macro-economic factors.

Your no-BS comments on energy are enlightening and thoroughly informative in this regard.

My objections were towards some of the more kooky, fringe posters on the board() and their crackpot theories on anarcho-capitalism, social Darwinism and the like, entirely unconnected to real estate.

Anonymous said...

Look at this article
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/500-costlier-dam-deal-junked/articleshow/14483545.cms

The project was sanctioned at 56 crores and the cost was escalated to 428 crores in a month. This is rampant corruption and the officers would have pocketed crores. All this money makes its way to RE and this is why RE will not go down as long as there is corruption

Anonymous said...

Just received an unsolicited offer to sell our vacant flat in Dadar to a neighbour who's NRI son is coming back with family.

20% over market!!!

My dad doesn't want to sell even though I tell him this is about as high we'll get for the next 20-30 years.

Sentiment is not negative. Unlike US, luxury buyers are not going to the banks for loan/mortgage etc. These are cash buyers.

Anonymous said...

Anon above, people here are underestimating the power of NRIs. With both husband and wife working in top companies and with stock options and bonuses it is not difficult to save 100K a year. In a few years you have enough money to buy any house.

Pawan said...

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/commodities/is-goldthe-edgea-violent-downturn_724110.html

Getafix said...

I am beginning to think more and more that perhaps there is no bubble at all. May be people can simply afford real estate at not just current prices but future as well.

And It is not just the NRIs.

I belong to a big family with uncles and cousins in various small businesses, mostly trading (wholesale and retail).
Till a few years ago most were barely eking out a couple of thousand dollars a month. Now they are making 10-20,000 dollars a month!!! And this is in a tier 4 town.
Almost no one pays much income tax. Almost all of them flip real estate between themselves making millions in this process.

Similarly, my friends are mostly DINK couples and their combined incomes are often enough to easily afford premium apartments in NCR. Not just for use but as investments as well.

Of course what I cannot understand in both the above cases is how is this possible. How is it that Indians are making more money than people in similar positions in much richer economies???

In any case that takes care of the concern over affordability or liquidity.

As for “herd mentality”, the other essential ingredient for a “bubble”, I think we have it ingrained in our genetic code.

As much as every bit of brains I have scream “bubble” when I look at the real estate prices, I cannot help but wonder that may be it is just like any other commodity. Some people will always be able to afford it and some people won’t.

In India of course this applies to even the most basic necessities like food and medical treatment.

Thoughts???

Pawan said...

@Getafix
Till a few years ago most were barely eking out a couple of thousand dollars a month. Now they are making 10-20,000 dollars a month!!! And this is in a tier 4 town.

That's what a 9% GDP growth rate does to you. Million dollar question is whether we can sustain it? Or even 6% for this decade?

aam aadmi said...

^Thoughts ??

You are rich and so are your acquaintances which is how it is all the time. Don't take it as an insult but most people don't earn 20k dollars a month. They earn something like 2k and even that puts you in the upper middle class bracket.

House prices can go up because most people can do without buying a house, it's not the same for food and medicines, problems will show up in the system before long.

Anonymous said...

I would sell the dadar flat and take the money and invest 10% in the a balanced fund and the rest 90% in Fixed Deposit at 9.5% . This is assuming you dont need the flat ever in Mumbai.

I recently sold my dad's flat in Santa Cruz to an NRI and in the process of geting the 10% into HDFC balanced fund. Missed the 3% rally today.

Anonymous said...

"My dad doesn't want to sell even though I tell him this is about as high we'll get for the next 20-30 years."

In real terms or in nominal terms? In nominal terms everything eventually goes up in India, including depreciating assets because nominal prices are measured in a worthless currency: the Rupee.

Anonymous said...

I would sell the dadar flat and take the money and invest 10% in the a balanced fund and the rest 90% in Fixed Deposit at 9.5%

Never! Don't do that. Your father is a wise man for not exchanging real property for worthless (or soon to be worthless) paper / electronic money.

Unless you are going to move it into another "real" asset, Mumbai real estate in good neighbourhoods is always going to remain highly valuable.

Short term thinking and trading mentality is highly pervasive in today's society and may be profitable for the smart/lucky few. But the vast majority who play these markets end up losing their shirts.

On the other hand, those who have held property or gold for 20-30+ years are multi-millionaires now.

Anonymous said...

In real terms or in nominal terms? In nominal terms everything eventually goes up in India, including depreciating assets because nominal prices are measured in a worthless currency: the Rupee.

Good point. Because if this NRI relocated in 2011 rupee was around 45-46 mark. So it has fallen by ~25% to 55-57 now.

In effect, your neighbour is actually getting 5% discount (assuming his son held his assets in USD)

Kamal said...

I have been blessed by the Lord, I have hit a JackPot of sorts, would like to immediately invest in real estate properties - retail or commercial as soon as possible.


More interested in Mumbai - Navi Mumbai or Pune areas. But will look for great deals in other cities also. Can invest in small projects of 1 to 2 cr or single large ones upto 7 crs. Please serious enquires only. Don't try to cheat, I used to be a real estate broker before.
Please email me at kad206@gmail.com or call me at 983-363-6613.

Anonymous said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Mumbai-plot-sold-for-Rs-1-75-crore-in-2002-fetches-Rs-600-crore-10-years-later/articleshow/14511587.cms?

8 Acres of slum land sold for 600 crore.

Dream on if you think any middle class housing will come up in this type of environment.

the_truth_prevails said...

@polt,@pawan y dont u guys STFU. u dont know shit abt whats happening in your local area and u wanna comment abt "big" issues. U come to comment on this blog coz its the only place u losers can breathe light and think good about yourselves. Stubborn idiots, u always keep on using flowery english. what are ur qualifications huh? U missed the boat suckers. No use crying loose monetary policy or black money or crash or bubble. Ur life is gone buddies. Keep the frustration inside u and if u cant go to ur nearest local toilet for ladies.

SKG said...

http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-realty-sector-usd-3-point-2bn-pe-exits-in-4-years/20120629.htm

PE funds are exiting the indian realty sector.
Now what happens to india's growth story?
-skg

Anonymous said...

Dadar currently sells at 40k a sq ft. A 1000 sq ft flat costs 4cr and gets a rent of 60k. There is no logic to this madness. Assuming 40k went by 15% per year all we are looking for is 15% YOY return. With 4cr in the bank + conservative funds we can easily achieve this goal.
My old flat has a lot of outgoing due to maintainence, leakage and endless headache. If you can actively manage this flat then its fine. however expecting your dad to do it 10 years from now when he is aging makes no sense.

Anonymous said...

Too many people reading rich dad and now soon to be poor dads.

Anonymous said...

The bust is happening slowly but surely

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/lack-of-demand-for-luxury-homes-forces-mumbai-based-real-estate-brokers-to-shut-operations/articleshow/14423397.cms

Pawan said...

@the_truth_prevails:
@polt,@pawan y dont u guys STFU.

I will but first let's hear something remotely enlightening from you except the rote "real estate always goes up" rant.

Anonymous said...

RE will ONLY correct in real terms. Anyone waiting for RE to correct in INR terms is a fool. NOTHING corrects in INR terms.

Even caked Bullshit (which is a form of fuel used in various parts of the country) has steadily risen in price over the past twenty years.

polt said...

@the_truth_prevails:
"@polt,@pawan y dont u guys STFU."

Here's why
1. Its a free country and an open blog.
2. We have our convictions and will continue to defend them.

This blog is a 'housing bubble blog'. So folks will come here with both bearish and bullish views.

As Pawan said, if you think we are spewing nonsense, then put forward a counterargument with Indian RE data or parallels from other countries.

@Anon - "NOTHING corrects in INR terms. "
Umm...stocks. Esp those of the RE firms :)

Anonymous said...

"
@Anon - "NOTHING corrects in INR terms. "
Umm...stocks. Esp those of the RE firms :)"

Just give those stocks time. In 20 years, they too will be (in nominal prices) much higher than they are today, even if they are still teethering on the edge of bankruptcy.

Anonymous said...

"@Anon - just give those stocks time. In 20 years, they too will be (in nominal prices) much higher than they are today, even if they are still teethering on the edge of bankruptcy."

With the exception of Japan, I dont know of any other reasonably large economy where stock markets have fallen for twenty years.
So your argument 'Nothing corrects in INR terms' applies not only to India but also most other countries in their currencies.

Pawan said...

Here comes the truth: SBI hikes retail term deposit rates by 0.25%

(Link: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/sbi-hikes-retail-term-deposit-rates-by-025_724640.html#toptag)

The fact is that the policy of not paying fair and honest interest rates to savers is leading to a decline in the savings growth rate as people are running towards RE and now gold. Interest rates will have to go up to encourage people to save more.

aam aadmi said...

^Interest rates will have to go up to encourage people to save more.

Yes they will, it's inevitable. It's anecdotal evidence but most of my relatives and acquaintances now get the idea of destruction of money, I doubt they will be rushing forward to open Fixed Deposits anymore. Most savings tend to be in Gold or it's poor cousin Silver. In fact any imported item is turning out to be a good investment. I have two imported bicycles and they are now worth more than what I bought em for.

There's only so much printing that you can do without tanking your currency and ultimately bringing down your own economy.

Anonymous said...

"Yes they will, it's inevitable. "

We don't need savings. CBC's will print all the money that is required for capital formation. This is how it has been for the past 10 years and there's been no indication that this will change anytime soon.

Bernanke alone has pledged to keep interest rates at 0% until kingdom come to save his banking buddies. The rest of the world's CBC's will follow suit.

Anonymous said...

Real estate is a local phenomenon. Even in US where it has crashed, there are certain pockets where prices are continuing to hit all time highs.

Likewise in India, the IT boom is accountable for the rise in RE prices in several cities.

The steady inclusion of tens of thousands of freshers keeps the rental demand at a steady level and the graduation of erstwhile freshers into middle and senior level positions sustains the overall market.

Where there is demand from the IT crowd the Real Estate prices will continue to grow. The supply side will not catch up unless there is a major overhaul in the land and development laws/regulations.

Other markets like Mumbai and Delhi region have completely different dynamics and cannot be compared to IT driven cities.

Like others have mentioned, it is easily possible for a dual income IT couple with a combined income of 7-10 lacs to "afford" a starter flat.

Hoping for a McMansion type dwelling when you're barely 3-5 years into the job market is a bit pie-in-the-sky.

For those on the lookout, instead of putting your life on hold, get in touch with a broker who is knowledgable in your specific area and they can inform you of the micro-market.

Yes, Greece and Spain may collapse tomorrow but you cannot postpone your life based on events that are going to be completely out of your control! There will always be some shit that's about to hit the fan "eventually"

Like some wise man said, eventually, we're all dead.

Anonymous said...

Compare Housing in New York to Mumbai.

Suburbs like Santa Curz and Andheri would be as far as Harlem to Bronx assuming that the starting point is Dalal St (Mumbai) & Wall street (NYC) Apartments in Bronx run about $225/sq ft, which is about Rs 12500 so should Andheri be about the same?

Any thoughtful insights. No India Shining BS please.

Anonymous said...

"Like some wise man said, eventually, we're all dead."

I would rather die than buy a house at these prices in a sh*tty country like India.

In the civilized world, I can buy a McMansion in most U.S. cities for 1 Crore. In Spain, 1 Crore will get me a house with a pool in the Costa del Sol. In filthy Mumbai, where 60% of the population don't have toilets, 1 Crore will barely buy me a parking space.

No, incredible India, you can keep your overpriced housing, dilapidated infrastructure, skyrocketing inflation, worthless Rupee, corrupt politicians and fractured beggar-thy-neighbour society and shove them all deep up your you-know-what, where the sun don't shine.

Anonymous said...

In the civilized world, I can buy a McMansion in most U.S. cities for 1 Crore.

Only problem is, you'll still be considered shit from a shitty country! LOL!

Anonymous said...

Compare Housing in New York to Mumbai.

You can't even compare housing between two suburbs of the same city anywhere in the world and here you are expecting to bridge continents!

Anonymous said...

Anon at 7.01

It appears that you live in some kind of a cave. You are probably the kind of person who would pay more than the asking price for a home.

aam aadmi said...

Yes, Greece and Spain may collapse tomorrow but you cannot postpone your life based on events that are going to be completely out of your control! There will always be some shit that's about to hit the fan "eventually"

Very true, while the outlook is very gloomy, it shouldn't put you off from living a normal happy life. What I object to is getting into debt for the sake of "buying a house", "buying a car" or "buying useless gadgets". People can lead happy lives without them as well.

polt said...

@Anon - 'Likewise in India, the IT boom is accountable for the rise in RE prices in several cities.'

Looks like you missed the memo - http://www.nhb.org.in/Residex/Data&Graphs.php

Bangalore and Hyd (so called IT cities) are still below their 2007 highs. They have fallen in nominal terms by aboout 10%, in real terms by about 50%. Add mortgage payments at about 9%, and its a disaster.

Theories like 'IT income', 'RE will not fall in nominal prices', etc do not hold water when tested against actual data. Even Mumbai is showing signs of stress now (see data). Next quarters data will tell us whether the Mumbai slowdown is temporary or longer lasting.

Anonymous said...

'Anecdotally there seemed to be a mentality that you should buy as much housing as you can afford, not as much as you need.' - Probably true in India as well.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/06/housing-and-wealth?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f2354d553956ea65f756e0

REBear said...

@Anon at 8:49 PM

The bust is happening slowly but surely

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/lack-of-demand-for-luxury-homes-forces-mumbai-based-real-estate-brokers-to-shut-operations/articleshow/14423397.cms


How do we reconcile the data,

http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/options-galore-for-luxury-home-buyers-despite-slowdown/1/185691.html

Looks like the news can not be much relied upon in India.

REBear said...

@Pawan

May I have your email id/phone number ? Or do get in touch with me at dsharma9@yahoo.com

OptimisticPunekar said...

No bust or bubble here...

http://pune.abodesindia.com/shared/Avgrate_calculation.asp?modpur=S&tpc=R&prop_code=RS330352&location=3677&citycd=1105&purpose=S&ratepsf=6200

Rates have gone up from avg 3000rs to avg 7000rs psqft in last 6 years...

Anonymous said...

>>>
I would rather die than buy a house at these prices in a sh*tty country like India.
>>>

Reminds me of the guy who called his mother a b*tch. Now that was one son of a b*tch.

Anonymous said...

@OptimisticPunekar said... - "No bust or bubble here..."
Can you also publish the corresponding stats for the rents, sales volumes and sales inventory.
Then and only then can you make that statement.

@ReBear - "How do we reconcile the data,"
Options have nothing to do with the state of market. If anything, during a bust one has more options to buy, because very few folks are buying.

Anonymous said...


How do we reconcile the data,

http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/options-galore-for-luxury-home-buyers-despite-slowdown/1/185691.html


Shitty country indeed!

I guess it must really burn for the NRIs that frequent these forums to bad mouth India, to see Indians living in Giorgio Armani designed homes while they have to jostle around for a deal at the local Walmart (or whichever discount store they flock around to)

Anonymous said...

Message to NRI's especially the American'ts: you left India for better prospects for whatever reason you want to invest...remember you will always be charged more. Plain and simple. And you also rely on the $ arbitrage to buy 'cheap' here. So if Real Estate catches up to the $ values dont crib. Buy and get the f**k out. OK.

For the rest of us Poor Indians stuck here - buy what you need, or rent. More importantly save for the kids edu, your retirement etc. Invest in commercial property - its easier to rent out. We are a poor country and given our population lack of resources and poor quality of our polity dont expect too much from the country. Its for your own good to think like Armageddon is around the corner, 'cos in India some day it will be. And in India rainy days do come and can last for generations. So those who crib about 'begger they neigbhor' know this well, that this is from centuries of penury this nation has been in. These attributes dont develop overnight.
We are going back to 70's inflation in a very short time, so buckle up. Its gonna be a horrible ride.
Yes real estate will crash but only in real terms, values will always remain high. I hope you have black money and gold stashed. you'll need it for whats coming.

Anonymous said...

/// it must really burn for the NRIs that frequent these forums to bad mouth India, to see Indians living in Giorgio Armani designed homes while they have to jostle around for a deal at the local Walmart (or whichever discount store they flock around to) ///

After visiting this blog for than a year, I can't figure if this was sarcasm or not.

aam aadmi said...

Rates have gone up from avg 3000rs to avg 7000rs psqft in last 6 years...

And gold prices went up by 2-3 times in the same period, rice went up by 2.5 times, sensex went up by 3 times etc etc...if I had to invest don't you think other options would have given more peace of mind given that you don't need to become a debt slave.

Anonymous said...

it must really burn for the NRIs that frequent these forums to bad mouth India, to see Indians living in Giorgio Armani designed homes while they have to jostle around for a deal at the local Walmart (or whichever discount store they flock around to) ///



During my last trip to Mumbai I saw a lot of my fellow Indians in Giorgio Armani suits taking a dump on the road side in Giorgio Armani designed potties in broad daylight.

The discussion here should be on the value of RE for a investor/homeowner not on national/personal sentiments....

Anonymous said...

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/rich-hoarding-banknotes-gold-and-art-works-in-swiss-banks/968975/

Pawan said...

More truth emerges: Last quarter GDP growth was negative! Read the full articles to see how govt. perpetuates fraud on public by releasing wrong data with much fanfare and then corrects it quietly so no one notices. It is amazing that no one gets fired for dishing out such horribly wrong numbers.

link: http://capitalmind.in/2012/07/india-has-seen-negative-gdp-growth-bop-confirms-data-fudge/

aam aadmi said...

@Pawan
Thanks for the link. We are truly in a situation of very high inflation. Govt is just trying to fudge the data using money printing and dubious data accounting standards. Here's an account of something similar that happened in Brazil sometime back.

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/brazilinfl.htm

I am tempted to keep a record of prices of common goods just to track the real inflation data.

@Anon
That is old story, the swiss border guards are now searching every vehicle entering the country for bank notes and some other stuff.

The Swiss are also defending a 1.20 peg to the Euro valiantly, they won't succeed for long esp if the Europeans decide to launch another LTRO.

OptimisticPunekar said...

@aam aadmi

Rates have gone up from avg 3000rs to avg 7000rs psqft in last 6 years...
And gold prices went up by 2-3 times in the same period, rice went up by 2.5 times, sensex went up by 3 times etc etc...



If we relate RE pricing and other prices as you have mentioned; then the RE price increase from Rs3000psft to Rs7000psft seem to be inline with everything else; isn't it? If it is so; why then RE should be in bubble as this blog suggests?
Now if folks argue that Rs3000psft itself was in bubble territory; then I really cant help getting your heads out of bubble clouds...


if I had to invest don't you think other options would have given more peace of mind given that you don't need to become a debt slave.


Agreed that there is no point being a Debt Slave; but each investment would come with its own risk..

Anonymous said...

"More truth emerges: Last quarter GDP growth was negative! "

This is what you happens when you have a dumber-than-a-sack-of-hammers population that does nothing other than invest in gold or real estate. A society needs to invest in productive assets (factories, farms, service centres) in order to generate wealth and create prosperity.

Gold and RE are unproductive assets that neither generate wealth nor productivity.

Anonymous said...

@OptimisticPunekar
"If we relate RE pricing and other prices as you have mentioned; then the RE price increase from Rs3000psft to Rs7000psft seem to be inline with everything else; isn't it? If it is so; why then RE should be in bubble as this blog suggests?"

Good question, that!

Pawan said...

@OptimisticPunekar
"If we relate RE pricing and other prices as you have mentioned; then the RE price increase from Rs3000psft to Rs7000psft seem to be inline with everything else; isn't it? If it is so; why then RE should be in bubble as this blog suggests?"

There are so many things wrong in this statement.

First of all not everything has become costlier by 2 times. Most important is energy. Petrol, diesel, kerosene and electricity charges have not increased by much yet. I would argue that energy is way more important that RE.

Other point to understand is that when income growth happens and inflation is lower comparatively then discretionary spend goes up. People use the surplus money to buy fancy cars, gold and RE. Of course this is true growth and prosperity.

Unfortunately, what we are having is phony growth. In such a scenario, after a while wages stagnate and inflation creeps up destroying the discretionary spending power of people leaving less and less for them to splurge.

Now make a list in priority order and see what would you cut down on if you were hard pressed?
1. Use public transport instead of a car? Start using kerosene instead of cooking gas etc?
2. Pull out children from expensive school and put them in a cheapo one?
3. Stop eating out and eat even less at home?
4. Stop visiting the doctor in private hospital and go to a govt. one instead?
5. Postpone buying the new/first car?
6. Postpone buying the new/first home?
7. Not take that expensive foreign vacation?

From 2009 (which was a flash low, not the normal) to now when RE has doubled, has your income doubled?

Will you be earning double of your post tax 2009 salary in 2015? If not then you have to cut down on something. What will it be from the above list?

aam aadmi said...

If it is so; why then RE should be in bubble as this blog suggests?

Good question. I would argue that a price doubling is not a bubble, but we all know that in many places prices haven't just doubled they have gone up by 5-10-15 times. Also rental yields don't justify property as an investment, many here including me have argued that if one has cash to make a down payment and needs a house dearly, it won't be a bad idea to buy it.

And then you have to look at the larger picture, gold didn't go up in price for approximately 20 years from 1980-2000 and prices of commodities and food didn't go up for close to a hundred years since 1900's. The price inversion in commodities is actually something that wasn't witnessed for almost one century, see the Simon-Ehrlich wager for more on this. The same cannot be said about Housing.

I would also argue that many things we do are a bubble, such as our economy, our energy consumption, resource consumption etc etc. We are borrowing from the future here, most of our banking is based on the assumption that people's real wages will keep growing for the next 20 years.

That is not going to happen, not a chance in hell, so many things are in bubble, not just RE.

polt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
polt said...

@Anon - "then the RE price increase from Rs3000psft to Rs7000psft seem to be inline with everything else; isn't it? If it is so; why then RE should be in bubble as this blog suggests?""

That one is easy to answer. It is because folks are buying assets simply in the hope of capital gains without giving a thought about underlying income.

Throughout history, the common thread to all bubbles is this - Hope for big capital gains without giving a damn about earnings'. (i.e. the greater fool theory).
You might argue that rents (the RE equivalent of earnings) will increase sharply. But with the slowdown and lower salary hikes, this will take a while. It has not happened for 5 years , very little chance of taking place now.

Anonymous said...

// jostle around for a deal at the local Walmart (or whichever discount store they flock around to)

What is wrong in this. From my experience with my freinds in USA and India, I find that most NRIs have much better savings and planning for retirement. Most of this comes from the fact that NRIs know that their jobs can go anytime. In India people are still not willing to accept this and hope that salaries will continue increasing 12% per year for untill they retire. If 25 year olds can replace people in USA why cant they replace indians in India. Again India is the worst country for unemployed in their 50s as there is no unemployment insurance and unlike in usa indians re not going to do hard jobs

Anonymous said...

Real Estate will never correct in nominal terms beyond 10%. Maybe 15% max.

With respect to real terms, that depends on how much the INR declines. I note that the Indian government is taking all steps to prevent the decline of the INR. This alone is a strong contrarian indicator that the INR is going to fall off a cliff very soon.

Anonymous said...

INDIA HAS THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN THE WORLD::
ft dot com
India’s decade: the highest housing price rise in the world
June 28, 2012 11:40 am by Neil Munshi

Rats. Raw sewage in the streets. Garbage to go. These are but of a few of the quality-of-life issues that continue to afflict many parts of major Indian cities like Mumbai.

And yet, few Mumbaikars – or Delhi-ites – would be surprised to learn that India has seen the biggest rise in housing prices of any country in the world in the ten years from 2001 to 2011, according to a study released by Lloyds TSB International this week. They need only look at their rent check, or downpayment.

Prices in India grew a staggering 284 per cent over the 10-year period. Rounding out the top three were two more Brics: Russia, at 209 per cent and South Africa, at 161 per cent. China clocked in at 47 per cent, just below the UK’s 50 per cent, while Brazil didn’t figure in the study of 32 countries.

The reason for India’s astounding growth? A simple case of supply and demand – India has a whole lot of people and not very much housing – and economics: India’s GDP growth over the same period closely tracks the housing price growth, at 280 per cent.

Anonymous said...

// Rats. Raw sewage in the streets. Garbage to go

No surprise that these articles are writen by foreigners. You have to look at this from the point of view of locals. Those who are born in India are used to these conditions from the childhood just as America kids are used to follow rules. So while this filth seems a nuisance for foreigners, for a majority of Indians this is what they have lived in and hence does not factor in their decision making process.

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