Sunday, July 29, 2012

More evidence of a bubble - Navi Mumbai has 23% flats vacant

23% of flats in Navi Mumbai lying vacant The newest destination for property investors in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region is the Navi Mumbai-Panvel-Raigad zone. Experts have concluded this based on Census 2011 findings , according to which 23% of houses here are lying vacant. They say that while investors are buying most vacant homes expecting rate appreciations ; genuine buyers are deferring purchase in the hope of a correction in prices. But some experts feel that low occupancy of houses does not necessarily imply a flourishing investor presence. Now a days Times of India too has been reporting on the sorry state of Mumbai real estate. The ads by the builders are down significantly from the huge booklets to just a few pages.

240 comments:

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aam aadmi said...

This NE situation just makes me mad and one more reason why it's not worth living in India at any price.

Racism exists everywhere, it's no different here. It's just that here the problems are compounded by lack of resources and land, the problems in NE are problems of over population, not in NE but in the neighboring country.

These problems will only get worse as resources dwindle and we have to accommodate more people on an ever shrinking pie of land and water. I see South Asia as a demographic disaster in the making.

Anonymous said...

@Anon - "IMO that is a precondition to RE bubble bursting."

Not necessary. The bursting of the bubble can cause a slowdown too. Thats what happened in the US.

Interest rates went up -> People started defaulting on home loans -> Banks had losses and lent lesser -> Demand went down -> job losses -> demand falling further -> ...

Anonymous said...

Not just RE, but in every sphere:
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Air-passengers-bear-the-brunt-of-increased-charges/articleshow/15555870.cms

Milk the common man high and dry. Ough. Hopeless situation in present day india which has been exacerbated in the last 2 years. When will this end?

polt said...

See this paper - “Mumbai’s real estate market in the 1990s: Deregulation, global money, and casino capitalism.” Economic and Political Weekly (India) vol. 35, no. 7 (February 12-18, 2000): 575-582.

(Available for free on JSTOR)

Mumbai went through a bubble in the 1990s. Prices went 2-3x and then fell 40-50%, wiping out gains in most places. Story is very similar even then. About 70% of homes/offices were bought by investors and not end users. Folks would make a profit before the property was even completed, plenty of bribes to get around laws, etc. In the end, lots of people were left with negative equity.

History generally repeats. Likely Mumbai will have a fall this time too.

Anonymous said...

The Government must intervene to reduce the RE prices to make it affordable to common man.

Interest rates and EMIs just form a very small part of the problem.

The main problem is highly unaffordable RE prices.

Unless the prices are affordable, how would the consumer spending increase ?
And it applies to all products and asset classes.

Anonymous said...

The Government must intervene to reduce the RE prices to make it affordable to common man.

Interest rates and EMIs just form a very small part of the problem.

The main problem is highly unaffordable RE prices.

Unless the prices are affordable, how would the consumer spending increase ?
And it applies to all products and asset classes.

Anonymous said...

"Interest rates and EMIs just form a very small part of the problem.

The main problem is highly unaffordable RE prices."

You've got it exactly backwards. Low interest rates and EMIs are exactly what has primarily contributed to unaffordable RE prices.

If interest rates are at least 2% about the rate of actual inflation (i.e. not government-published figures), the RE bubble would pop overnight.

Government intervening to "reduce prices" will only make things worse by worsening the artificial shortage that is presently out there and by further energizing black market transactions.

Anonymous said...

I dont understand the idiot Chidambaran's logic.

Instead of popping the bubble he want to increase the bubble size. This is open act of stupidity. But I dont think any banker will listen to it.

On one hand he says middle class should invest in financial instruments. I think he is referring banks,bonds,stocks etc. Another hand he keep artificially inflated inflation(free money). Who will invest in bank?

Pawan said...

@Anon
Instead of popping the bubble he want to increase the bubble size. This is open act of stupidity. But I dont think any banker will listen to it.

Didn't you read the first page of TOI this morning? SBI is ready to do it. And if they do it, does not matter if others do it or not.

Anonymous said...

One thing I don't understand is:
If people hoard food grains or petrol/diesel or any other product (ex. cement - recently the crook builders filed a case on cement companies which learnt a lesson from the builders & started hoarding cement), and wait for price to rise so that they can sell it at higher price, it is considered a crime & raids are conducted, which is right. But when people hoard land banks & housing and wait for higher prices, our govt simply doesn't consider it a crime & doesn't do _anything_ about it. Why is that?? (Ok, the most popular answer would be builder-politician-underworld nexus.. but this is so obviously & glaringly wrong... but still no one questions!!)

polt said...

@Anon "Instead of popping the bubble he want to increase the bubble size"

The West too is trying desperately to keep home prices up, has not helped so far. Probably will be the same here. The govt might inflate the bubble a bit, but eventually fair valuation will be reached (either through inflation or through default).

@Anon - "But when people hoard land banks & housing and wait for higher prices"
Actually the govt does try to create the right incentives. For example, you dont pay any taxes for holding financial assets (stocks/FD/PPF ..etc), but you do pay taxes on land. But the taxes are so small that the potential gains far outweigh them.

Even with capital gains taxation, the govt tries to incentivize financial assets over RE, but our fascination with it continues.

Anonymous said...

1990'S India way different now. All these guys have crores in the bank. How many Indians earned in the millions in the 1990's????? some of the lands have been sold for 100 folds to the FG companies, so these guys can afford to sit on these properties for 1000 years. Top Indians will keep earning in millions, even if everything else fails around them.
My friend in Delhi just said, they dont get electricity 24 hours a day, water is a issue, inverters dont work all the time, food prices going out of control, but the real estate is as strong as ever. 23% flats maybe vacant in Mumbai, but 77% has been sold at crazy high prices, so the 23% vacancy is a non issue.

Pawan said...

@Anon
23% flats maybe vacant in Mumbai, but 77% has been sold at crazy high prices, so the 23% vacancy is a non issue.

in DLF, promoters own 85% of the stock and only 15% is traded on exchanges. That did not stop its price falling 80%.

Only one property has to sell at 20-30% discount and prices of all properties in the region will correct by that amount.

Parth said...

Just a piece of information.

House prices in Netherlands back to level of 2004.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2012/08/house_prices_fell_8_in_june_sh.php

Property in Agra said...

Waao, what a great news. Can you tell me what is the process to book flats?

aam aadmi said...

Take that suckers

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-21/india-considers-35-billion-debt-revamp-after-biggest-blackout.html

From the article
Half of the short-term borrowings of the state-owned utilities, which generate or buy and distribute electricity, will be transferred to the books of the regional governments, according to a power ministry draft proposal obtained by Bloomberg News. The rest will be rescheduled by the banks and allowed a three-year moratorium on principal repayments.

Haha take that suckers...reality is a b**ch. Classic can kicking, only god knows who is going to pay all that debt in future. Ultimately it will have to be absorbed by the mai baap i.e. central government and it will reflect on your rupee valuation.

polt said...

@aam admi - Inflating debts away has been the preferred route of govts all over the world, no different in India.

Extending loans makes it worse for banks. There is less money to lend to productive profit making enterprises and entrepreneurs.

Banks/PF/PPF will be dangerous investments esp for younger folks since over a 30-40 year period (average career), inflation will destroy all savings that you have in the 'safe' investments.

Real assets (RE/equities). are generally the way to go, but valuations are still expensive. So all in all we are probably in a for a rough ride ahead.

Anonymous said...

http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_elevator-with-18-crashes-from-seventh-floor-in-bangalore_1731117

Anonymous said...

Chinese steel industry profits down 96% due to reduced demand from RE/auto-industry etc.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06c02808-db04-11e1-8074-00144feab49a.html#axzz24IUv5V76

The slowdown has hit China. Expect it to get worse next year.

Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news/P-Chidambaram-asks-banks-to-put-pressure-on-real-estate-developers-to-lower-property-prices/articleshow/15592351.cms



The finance minister pointed out to the bank bosses that close to 5 lakh flats were lying vacant. "A huge quantum of capital is locked

Anonymous said...

China cannot be compared to India. China has taken active and aggressive steps to deflate the housing bubble. In India on the other hand, we have the FM's ...um...humble request to builders to lower prices.

Anyone who still thinks "democracy" is preferable to the system that China has (benevolent dictatorship) needs to have their heads scanned.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who still thinks "democracy" is preferable to the system that China has (benevolent dictatorship) needs to have their heads scanned.

No matter what form of "rule" you have, the end goal all across the world (except perhaps for a few Scandinavian countries) is the same. To keep the peasants in check by pushing them enough but not to the brink of revolt against the elite.

Social issues are "engineered" so the pent up frustration and anger of the peasants is redirected amongst themselves. Classic divide and conquer.

What has always puzzled me from my school days in civics courses was that how can people collectively choose "representatives" that are completely unlike them. i.e. super rich, movie stars, criminals etc.

And then we expect these guys to represent the average Joe and lookout for his interests? How unrealistic is that...

SKG said...

Anon above...
very good observation.
-SKG

Anonymous said...

"What has always puzzled me from my school days in civics courses was that how can people collectively choose "representatives" that are completely unlike them. i.e. super rich, movie stars, criminals etc."

In India, if the masses choose people that are like them, you will end up in disaster. Be very careful what you wish for, you might get it.

Elitism is underrated. Populist governments generally run their economies to the ground. Don't believe me? Look at what Mugabe, a man of the people to be sure, did for Zimbabwe.

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Natalia said...

thr are vacant houses in navi mumbai but the price and budget should be so so that the common masses can by. they are almost charging south bombay prices in navi mumbai with no proper facilities like commuting, train, buses, hospitals. They should make all these and thn they should further build an infrastructure that actual serve the purpose.

Natalia said...

properties in mumbai and noida properties are actually booming. The builders as soon as they launch all units are sold out fast.

Gaurav said...

Now a days, folks are showing interest in 1 BHK Flat in Mumbai, apartment, house, land in Mumbai. I am also searching property at an affordable price and contacting to dealers, brokers and owners.

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speakasia said...

A 50-year-old builder of Navi Mumbai was shot dead–by two men at Vasi in broad daylight on Saturday near his office and the crime was entirely–captured on the CCTV camera, police said on Sunday.”

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Residential apartments said...

it may be due to people are thinking of buying second home,. For the investment purpose they have purchased flat. The flats are vacant because they are not actually living there.

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