Thursday, July 05, 2012

Mumbai home sales growth stagnates in June

Article Link


A situation of plenty continues to plague the Mumbai real estate market with unsold inventory amounting to 80,000 units which forms 37 per cent of the total residential supply under construction.
The market stagnated in June due to high prices and most buyers having stayed away expecting an imminent drop in prices in the near future. 

The report indicates prices have been moving in a narrow range in the past four quarters as a virtual stoppage of new launches over the past year has constrained supply and cushioned prices from dropping in spite of absorption levels steadily trending downward.
Absorption numbers in FY2012 are estimated to have dropped more than 60 per cent from its 2007 heydays and 35 per cent from FY2011, to an estimated 45,000 units. This steep drop in absorption levels should have resulted in a similar correction in prices.

294 comments:

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Anonymous said...

All these wealthy Indians send money back home or they have property back home.

I fool thinks only foolish things. Nnone of the people you mentuioned are Indians. They are Indian origin but why would they buy RE in India. Even people from India who migrated 15 years back don't buy in India. Why? Because they don't need to. They are Americans now and they don't need RE in India. Yes, people do invest in ETF for emerging eco. but nothing to do with India.

NRIs who have bought in India are primarily from middle east or US/UK/Aussie who are not permanently settled in US or other countries yet. Either on Hvisas or fresh GCs etc.

COmparing well settled and second generation Indians to this nonsense of RE is big foolishness. Most people you mentioned like governors of two states etc. have never even visited India. All they have is a name from their parents but they are Americans.

India has a massive bubble and is bursting. Like it or don't like it.

Prices will correct by 60%. Massive fall is coming. Save your own arse first before spewing nonsense on this blog.

People talk of houses for 2-3 crores a normal thing. There are very very few people even today who can afford corores worth of flats. Kisi bhi madarchod ke baap ne ya sallon ne khud ne itna paisa nahin kamayya jitne ke ghar hain ab. Sabki gaand lagne wali hai, pretty soon.

polt said...

@Anon - "NDIANS AND CHINESE only represent 5 % of the population, but they represent over 30% of the wealth in US"

So essentially you are saying that their average wealth is 6 times more than the national average.

Wrong. Data does not support your hypothesis. See this paper - www.frbsf.org/community/research/assets/AsianAmericanWealth.pdf

The average networth is actually lower than those of whites. And hence mathematically impossible to have a networth 6 times greater than national average. Infact, it would probably be lower than national average.

Anonymous said...

Last I checked, wealthy Asians were buying up property in Florida.

For their kids who are studying in US universities.

Having multiple properties in India is old fashioned. Even upper middle class has it. Rich Indians now boast of apartments in multiple countries around the world.

Australia and Canada are good targets due to their immigration policies.

Anonymous said...

"The average networth is actually lower than those of whites. And hence mathematically impossible to have a networth 6 times greater than national average. Infact, it would probably be lower than national average."

With due respect, only a fool can actually believe that Indians and Chinese in America have a lesser average net worth than White Americans.

It is well documented that Indians are the wealthiest ethnic group in the US, exceeding even Japanese Americans and Jewish Americans. This is a WELL-DOCUMENTED FACT that is beyond dispute, especially by some "draft" paper written by some sophomore.

It appears that you have never visited the US and have no clue as to conditions there. You have no idea how Indians save and how Whites spend. Your average Whitey is sunk up to his eyeballs in debt. Indians on the other hand are floating in gravy.

It appears that you are terribly misinformed on these issues.

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

Have to been to US and see Indians and how they live? You need to take a trip to see if they are in gravy or working hard trying to make ends meet.

You seem to be the same poster who thinks Indians have dollar trees in their backyords in US. You are so ignorant.

If that is true, why don't you leave India and go to US to make money for yourself t=rather than pimping for RE people in India. Pimp.

Anonymous said...

Btw, do you also know how much Indians are in deep shit due to their RE investments.

If you are trying to say Indians in US are all rich is utter nonsense. Cost of living is high and people spend money to live a good life. Not like many Indians in India who save for their daughters marriage so that they can show to people how big they are how big their dick is.

Indians living in US are more Americans than you can think of. And this educated bunch os above and beyond the normal Gujju idiots who are penny pinchers even in US.

Anonymous said...

There is so much junk here that it's hard to know where to begin.

"Btw, do you also know how much Indians are in deep shit due to their RE investments. "

WHAT RE investments? Weren't you just saying that US Indians are struggling to make Indians meet (a laughable premise if ever there was one)? Were then did they get the cash to buy "RE investments"?

In any case, let me answer your question. If you're talking about "RE investments" in India, there is no loss, only ever-increasing gains as far as the eye can see. If you're talking about RE investments in the US, as long as they took out fixed-rate mortgages to buy such properties they will be safe and should be able to repay their mortgages in peanuts as Benny Lava Bernanke keeps debasing the dollar (basically just like Indians with INR mortgages on Indian properties have been able to do - take out huge mortgage, pay back with depreciated currency).

If the US experiences hyperinflation or even very high inflation, basically they will get a free house SO LONG AS THEY TOOK OUT FIXED INTEREST RATE MORTGAGES.

"If you are trying to say Indians in US are all rich is utter nonsense."

I never said they were "all rich". However, they are the country's wealthiest ethnic group. That much is beyond dispute (see NY Times article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/29/world/americas/29iht-indians.3322280.html?pagewanted=all).

"Indians living in US are more Americans than you can think of."

I will believe that when White, Black and Hispanic Americans start winning the "Spelling Bee" with the same frequency as US Indians.

polt said...

@Anon -
"It is well documented that Indians are the wealthiest ethnic group in the US, exceeding even Japanese Americans and Jewish Americans. This is a WELL-DOCUMENTED FACT "
Show the documents then instead of your racial rants. I posted a paper which cites data from the Census Bureau. Should we believe that or your 'DOCUMENTED' rants ?


"It appears that you have never visited the US and have no clue as to conditions there. "
Have both an education and work-experience from there. Nevertheless, it does not change the underlying data and one does need to be there to understand it.

"http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/29/world/americas/29iht-indians.3322280.html?pagewanted=all"
1. It does not say anything about wealth. It states income. (Income != wealth)

2. From the article - "Income for Indians - $68,771. The overall median household income, nationwide, was $46,326."
So income is higher, but hardly enough to get '30%' of all 'wealth' considering their population is a small percentage of the US population.

Really dude, your high school just called and they want you to take your math exam again :)

Anonymous said...

The recent Denver kilings are going to trigger a mass movement of NRIs back o India due to safety concerns. Guess what the RE boom will live along as these NRIs lap up properties in India

Anonymous said...

force NRI's to pay extra tax
on deposits, and let them pay more for property tax.


India needs foreign exchange, if they start taxing NRI deposits or investments then they can kiss goodbye to one of the largest source of dollars that the Indian has.

aam aadmi said...

Anon above
Prices will correct by 60%. Massive fall is coming. Save your own arse first before spewing nonsense on this blog

No one knows by how much prices will correct or go up but one things for sure, there is simply too much money in the world already (present as well as a claim on the future), we don't need no friggin hyperinflation to jack up the prices, central banks released something like 10-14 trillion $ worldwide in the aftermath of 2008 crash, which is like half of the world's GDP in a year. A truly massive amount. Imagine if the Indian Govt printed close to half of it's GDP in a year, where would the economy go and they are still releasing money constantly (ZIRP etc) to keep the system from dying.

There ain't enough stuff in the world to buy with all that money. Either all that claim on future will be destroyed (deflation) or we will run out of stuff to buy (inflation). There is no other logical outcome in this scenario.

A lot of people who think they are rich because they own a lot of bits and bytes on some bank server are about to learn it the hard way. A lot of hard assets (supposed safe havens) will become worthless as well as the old economy dies.

aam aadmi said...

A lot of hard assets (supposed safe havens) will become worthless as well as the old economy dies

Contd...
what I mean by this is that let's say a flat in Gurgaon (my favorite poster city of idiocy) will lose all value because in the absence of a thriving economy that place is unlivable, you can't afford the diesel genset which lights up your house and let's you live in that concrete bunker in 40+ temperatures, you can't afford the water tanker which ferries water from 60 km's away and you can't afford the car which let's you commute to the vegetable market.

A lot of expectations which are the byproduct of cheap money are going to go away.

aam aadmi said...

I think 2008 will be considered a landmark event in history even if it is not seen as such right now, on a plane similar to 1929, 1939 or 1914.

Anonymous said...

"that place is unlivable, you can't afford the diesel genset which lights up your house and let's you live in that concrete bunker in 40+ temperatures, you can't afford the water tanker which ferries water from 60 km's away and you can't afford the car which let's you commute to the vegetable market."

You've just given a text book description of Chennai (Madras) which has had a chronic water shortage, electricity shortage, massive flooding during rains, no roads, no sanitation, no sewerage, and no public facilities for decades.

However, none of this has stopped RE prices from relentlessly climbing year after year, higher and higher through the stratosphere during this period to the point where Chennai now has the fastest rising RE prices in the country.

When you have a country where the population breeds like rabbits and where most families earn in dollars/pounds/euros through family members abroad, there's no way in hell housing is going to correct.

The Indian population is going to explode by another 700 million by 2050. All of those people need some place to live and they will pay top dollar (and I mean dollar, not Rupees) to live there irrespective of whether they have to live in 40C heat or whether they have to choose between drinking water or water to bathe.

RE ownership is simply an exclusive right to exclude other human beings from a certain geographical perimeter. A society whose very foundation is premised on exploitation and exclusion (i.e., the caste system) will naturally find this feature of RE extremely attractive.

Other decent, civilized, egalitarian societies may have markets that eventually correct and assign asset values according to their market worth, but not here.

We are different.

polt said...

@aam admi - "there is simply too much money in the world already "
This by itself does not necessarily mean high inflation.
1. The comparison with world GDP is misleading. GDP is income (flow). What we should compare the money supply against is wealth (stock). (flow-flow, stock-stock).
Net wealth of the world is estimated to be around 175Trillion dollars. On that scale, 15T is not all that much.

2. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange
Since 2008, the velocity of money has fallen. So if money did not increase, we would have a devastating fall in prices (as per the above equation) and increase in defaults/etc. Moderate inflation is any day preferable to deflation.
This is why the banks are QE'ing so much.

Pawan said...

@Anon:
You've just given a text book description of Chennai (Madras) which has had a chronic water shortage, electricity shortage, massive flooding during rains, no roads, no sanitation, no sewerage, and no public facilities for decades.

That description fits any given place in India. When we have failed to provide even the most basic infra services in our metro cities, one can imagine what happens in smaller towns and villages. This is what we have to show for 65 years of independence!

Anonymous said...

http://in.news.yahoo.com/india-becomes-australias-largest-source-permanent-migrants-104500925.html

TOP EXPORTER OF HUMAN

Anonymous said...

This is what we have to show for 65 years of independence!

Thank the British. Atleast we have a rail network and english schools.

Without whites, brown/black people would still be in stone age.

Anonymous said...

^ Without brown/black, whites won't be able to have their industrial revolution, Uncle Ruckus.

Getafix said...

To the anonymous fucktard that insists NRIs will start buying Indian RE in hoards because of the Denver shooting.
By similar logic, all NCR based MNC executives should be looking to sell because of the Maruti incident.

Man, the reasons people cook up in their heads!!!

aam aadmi said...

That description fits any given place in India. When we have failed to provide even the most basic infra services in our metro cities, one can imagine what happens in smaller towns and villages

No it doesn't fit every town and village. There may be problems in a lot of places but not every living place is located in a sweltering desert with no access to water and groundwater getting depleted rapidly. I hike a lot in South India, many villages are like gardens of eden, if not socially then at least in terms of resources, plenty of rain, ample groundwater and fertile soil which has not been abused yet. The western ghats and nilgiris in particular are still like paradise. Same for many villages\towns in East India. At least the South, East and West India manage their rivers properly, Cauvery, Narmada and Brahmaputra still haven't turned into stinking gutters like the Ganga and Yamuna.

My point was that we have abused our resources and given up all traditional methods of conserving them owing to cheap fossil fuels and easy money.

Anonymous said...

"By similar logic, all NCR based MNC executives should be looking to sell because of the Maruti incident. "

It seems that folks on this board have a pathological inability to identify satire or sarcasm.

Anonymous said...

"A lot of hard assets (supposed safe havens) will become worthless as well as the old economy dies."

What exactly do you mean by "old economy"? By "new economy" do you mean the term as was paraded in the late 90's (i.e. the dot-com economy)?

Is the "old economy" everything except the "dot-com" economy? Sorry but you're not making a lot of sense.

Anonymous said...

@getafix - "o the anonymous fucktard that insists NRIs will start buying Indian RE in hoards because "

It was in poor taste, but I think he was mocking the bulls on this site who think NRIs will keep pushing Indian RE up.

REBear said...

Folks, today I came to know that one of the apartments in my home town(Kanpur) which was available for under 12 lakh in year 2001 is now worth between 70 lakh - 80 lakh. Note that Kanpur is one of the worst towns in the world with power cuts over 12 hours round the year. Water and electricity problems exist there since 1990. We as well as all the neighbors, all middle class, invested 19000/- in the year 1991 to get access to underground water since otherwise life was hell :(

Air quality is lowest in the world in Kanpur. Moreover according to year 2010 census there was an exodus in the last decade with population falling over the 10 year period.

So property prices are insane in the worst city of India and the world with no amenities, and most important falling population with people moving to Lucknow fed up with poor quality of life.

What else other than cheap credit can cause this ? India is no different - black money, population growth, inefficient land distribution are all hogwash.

Anonymous said...

REAL ESTATE: A DEAD INVESTMENT IN URBAN INDIA
http://sureshmiyer.sulekha.com/blog/post/2012/07/real-estate-a-dead-investment-in-urban-india/comment/2227324.htm

Anonymous said...

"REAL ESTATE: A DEAD INVESTMENT IN URBAN INDIA"

What is interesting is that even this author doesn't dare suggest that prices may actually (gasp!) come down.

Getafix said...

"It seems that folks on this board have a pathological inability to identify satire or sarcasm."

I apologize for having taken your comment on face value.

My inability to read the sarcasm meant to be conveyed and the hasty and sharp retort was perhaps due to the fact that your everyday RE bulls/agents are perfectly capable of this kind of thought process.

Like vultures trying to turn a tragedy into a feast.

aam aadmi said...

@Anon
What exactly do you mean by "old economy"? By "new economy" do you mean the term as was paraded in the late 90's

You need to expand your thinking...old economy as in the end of instant gratification, more like 1930's and 40's.

Although before you start thinking in B&W I must warn you that it's not as simple as turning back the dial 50 years, look at Greece today, the youth are going back to the villages to start cultivation but it's not like they have turned into their grandparents...the iPod is still there, so is the internet, most will still be on Facebook but they can't tell their kids anymore that the future will be bright and rosy, that GDP will continuously grow and that they will all get to graduate and get high paying jobs.

We are all going to get there eventually, economic growth will no longer be certain. We are all competing for a fixed pot now. For every TCS there will be an Infosys. That's what I mean by end of a new economy.

And unlike the 30's and 40's we are no longer blessed with a stable climate, cheap fossil fuels, virgin resources and a (relatively) low population. Though we do have the benefits of more connectivity and higher levels of education. It will be a interesting to see how we weather this crisis.

Anonymous said...

"My inability to read the sarcasm meant to be conveyed and the hasty and sharp retort was perhaps due to the fact that your everyday RE bulls/agents are perfectly capable of this kind of thought process. "

That wasn't my post but I spotted the sarcasm. Agreed it's increasingly becoming hard to distinguish between the fiction paraded by parasitical RE agents and satire.

Anonymous said...

"And unlike the 30's and 40's we are no longer blessed with a stable climate, cheap fossil fuels, virgin resources and a (relatively) low population. Though we do have the benefits of more connectivity and higher levels of education. It will be a interesting to see how we weather this crisis."

All nice and gassy rhetoric, but rhetoric nevertheless.

The fundamental question is: Will there be inflation or deflation?

If there is a worldwide slowdown (i.e. deflation), stay in cash, bonds and fixed income.

If there is going to be inflation, get into stocks, RE, prec. mets, and other hard assets.

aam aadmi said...

All nice and gassy rhetoric, but rhetoric nevertheless.

The fundamental question is: Will there be inflation or deflation?


No it's not rhetoric, our POV's are different. You are looking at the future of your bank balance or your immediate social circle, I am looking at the future of the country and the world. Your timeline is 5-6 years, mine is 15-30.

Anonymous said...

"We are all going to get there eventually, economic growth will no longer be certain. We are all competing for a fixed pot now. "

Anyone who thinks there's only a "fixed pot" of wealth doesn't understand economics but rather is coasting on a lot of Malthusian poppycock. Human beings adapt, that's what we've always done. The stone age didn't end because people ran out of stones.

Anonymous said...

great..so people even on this forum dont think prices would decrease..so it will double every year..at least there is some certainty in these uncertain times..

Anonymous said...

"great..so people even on this forum dont think prices would decrease..so it will double every year..at least there is some certainty in these uncertain times.."


The only things certain in this World are: Death, taxes and INR depreciation.

As long as INR depreciation is a paradigm, RE prices can *ONLY* go up, at least in nominal terms.

aam aadmi said...

Anyone who thinks there's only a "fixed pot" of wealth doesn't understand economics but rather is coasting on a lot of Malthusian poppycock

Tell it to those folks who've run out of groundwater and are bringing in water through tankers, if a diesel shortage occurs (like in Chennai) and no tankers run for two-three days one will be left with nothing but Malthusian poppycock to drink. Your modern existence is connected to this world by a very thin thread. As a real world example Karnataka is in drought right now and there ain't much water in KRS reservoir. Come February people will be drinking Malthusian poppycock.

Human beings adapt, that's what we've always done

Well of course we do, when was that ever in doubt, but it ain't pretty. The folks living in slums are after all adapting to their surroundings.

Anonymous said...

"Tell it to those folks who've run out of groundwater and are bringing in water through tankers, "

I've got news for you. People have been "bringing in water through tankers" in Chennai for decades, a period through which RE prices (to take one sector for no particular reason) have spectacularly risen at least 100 fold.

The world didn't collapse or come to an end. The four horsemen of the apocalypse weren't spotted hurtling through the sky at any point of time.

Anonymous said...

September 11th was the turning point for the RE sector in the developing world. After September 11th, the Western world, including Switzerland, UK, etc. imposed strict controls and oversight to prevent money laundering (ostensibly for terrorism purposes, but all transactions were captured) in Western financial institutions.

All the fraudulently obtained money in the developing world that traditionally would have found safe haven in the fund houses of Zurich, Geneva or London now had nowhere else to go. The developing world's stock markets are all rigged and the elites were well aware of that. Saving in local currencies were not an option because of Benny-Lava-Bernanke style money printing.

Where else did the money go? Well, they went into RE. And how. Today, there is a housing bubble in every third world basket-case in the world; you would be hard-pressed to name a single third world country which doesn't have prices rivaling those in advanced countries like Britain or the US.

The point I'm making is that this is not a particularly Indian phenomenon, but one that is present throughout the developing world. How it will all end no one knows.

Pawan said...

If you can't understand it this simple, there is no way you ever will:
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/economaniac/indian-consumption-boom-over-092244606.html

Pawan said...

And some more:

“India is a black swan. It was just a hot money bubble. It’s not sustainable. How long can they do this? India is very dangerous,”

link: http://www.theasian.asia/?p=24522

Anonymous said...

@Pawan,

“India is a black swan. It was just a hot money bubble. It’s not sustainable. How long can they do this? India is very dangerous,”

Interesting that independent economist Xie is able to give the story as it is, unvarnished.

Don't expect Xie's warning to be covered or taken seriously by the big banks, CNBC or the press-titutes in the Indian or international media.

Anonymous said...

@Pawan - "http://in.finance.yahoo.com/blogs/economaniac/indian-consumption-boom-over-092244606.html"

Plus we also had the 'wealth effect'. When asset prices rise, people feel richer and spend more. This is turn raises incomes and asset prices further.
When prices fall the reverse occurs and accelerates the fall in prices.

Pawan said...

Forget NRIs, even desis buying outside India:

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/moveover-mumbai-dubai-real-estate-is-beating-you-hands-down-388702.html

Anonymous said...

The press-titutes all receive heavy funding in the form of sponsorship and advertising revenue from the developers and real estate agents.

Which press-titute is going to be stupid to say anything about a housing bubble or about an impending collapse in prices? What do you think that will do to their advertising revenues?

Rule No 1 of business: Never bite the hand that feeds you.

Anonymous said...

What bubble? Prices are going to increase in Noida

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/Realty-jolt-Buying-house-land-get-costlier-in-Noida/articleshow/15154339.cms

Remember prices will never go down in India

Anonymous said...

^ Tell us about the sales.

Anonymous said...

"^ Tell us about the sales."

Who cares about sales? Sales have been declining for years without the slightest dent on prices.

The new normal is that a house in any of the metros will set you back at least 2 Crores (i.e. US$360,000). The crappiest apartment checks in at least 1 Crore (i.e. US$180,000). These are higher than prices in the US or Britain!

The Indian middle class is royally scr*wed. You see that boot on your face? It's there to stay.

I have often wondered if a more socially darwinistic society than India has ever existed in human history.

Anonymous said...

// The new normal is that a house in any of the metros will set you back at least 2 Crores (i.e. US$360,000). The crappiest apartment checks in at least 1 Crore (i.e. US$180,000). These are higher than prices in the US or Britain! //

The crappiest house I can find in Delhi (i.e. West Delhi) cost about 40-50 Lacs, for 2BHK. Unfortunately, some of those places are worth only 15 Lac at most.

Anonymous said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/london-olympics-2012/news/Rs-2-5-Crore-for-gold-medal-in-Olympics-Haryana-CM/articleshow/15163327.cms

"Haryana to hand over half a million for each gold medal in the London Olympics".

In comparison I could only find one mention that the American cyclists will get a $100,000 for each gold medal in their events.

Not only are we richer than the Americans but five times so.

And you guys complain about housing in India being 2-3 times that of US.

Anonymous said...

"Not only are we richer than the Americans but five times so. "

Pure, unadulterated social darwinism, just as I mentioned in my previous post.

The elites celebrate and live in shangri la, while the plebes get crushed.

Anonymous said...

http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/pictures/filthy-india-photos-chinese-netizen-reactions.html

Anonymous said...

^^^ Oops!! OMG

Anonymous said...

This website about India is true but India has good parts too.

I hope it doesn't make to the western world(It would though). I'll be ashamed if someone in US/UK asks me about it during my visits.

Anonymous said...

^^other than *malls and hotels, where did you find the good part?

Getafix said...

In the Tier IV town where my parents live, the land prices are already crazy (close to a million dollars for a 40 year old house built on a 600 sq yard plot of land).

Newer developments cost equally insane amounts of money and are rising by ~ 25%. EVERY QUARTER!!!

My extended family looks at me like I am stupid for thinking that this is not sustainable.

The last time I wrote of this situation, I was accused of being rich and knowing only rich people.

Yes, my family and friends are rich today, but my point is that these are the same people who had to think 5 times before filling petrol in their scooters just 8-10 years ago.

I have understood the concept of vast amounts of easy money flowing into India in the last few years, making people wealthy beyond their wildest dreams.

The question, is how is it going to dry up??? Which logically should be the first step towards deflating the bubble.

Anonymous said...

"I have understood the concept of vast amounts of easy money flowing into India in the last few years, making people wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. "

Real estate is the surest means to wealth. The whole world understands this now.

Anonymous said...

"The question, is how is it going to dry up??? "

The better question is: "IS it going to dry up?". Incredible India is shining.

Pawan said...

More truth emerges:
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/retailers-hit-by-high-rents-and-poor-consumption-rethink-expansion-393161.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE

Pawan said...

Money printing chickens coming home to roost: In a slowdown/recessionary scenario with food bills rising, workers demand salary hikes. Its all downhill from here.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/hero-moto-gurgaon-workers-send-demand-notice-for-wage-hike_735930.html

Anonymous said...

"Money printing chickens coming home to roost: In a slowdown/recessionary scenario with food bills rising, workers demand salary hikes. Its all downhill from here."

So where's the correction?

Getafix said...

"Real estate is the surest means to wealth. The whole world understands this now."

So when we say "the whole world", we exclude America???
I am not sure they quite still believe in the above.
And guess what, they learned it the hard way!

REBear said...

@Getafix

Yes, my family and friends are rich today, but my point is that these are the same people who had to think 5 times before filling petrol in their scooters just 8-10 years ago.

The situation is not much different today. Yesterday I went to buy vegetables and saw people's reactions to prices. Most of the fellows just passed ahead by hearing coriander price(20/- per 100 gm). One person asked the price of Tinda(Apple Gourd) and upon hearing price to be 60/- kg got stunned but ordered 0.5 kg. His wife said "aadha kilo mai kyaa hogaa", he replied "aloo milaa lenaa" :)

And this in a locality in East Delhi(Vasundhara Enclave) where flats start from INR 1 cr upwards and upto INR 2.5 cr. Filthy location with mosquito menace, bad sewage system - sometimes when it rains the air smells so bad that we have to shut off the AC. Still is a much sought location for tenants where apartments don't remain vacant for more than 15 days.

This is something too good to be true. Bubble has to burst one day, don't know when.

Real Estate Property Mumbai said...

Find the Residential and Commercial Projects in India.

Anonymous said...

"This is something too good to be true. Bubble has to burst one day, don't know when."

Maybe in the year 4,500 CE.

Tilak Kumar said...

Thanks for such a nice information.

Pawan said...

@Anon
So where's the correction?

It is coming... I can hear it coming closer.

Pawan said...

Lo aur lo:

http://www.firstpost.com/business/esar-unrest-strengthened-unions-start-talking-tough-393463.html

http://www.firstpost.com/business/esar-unrest-strengthened-unions-start-talking-tough-393463.html

Party is over. Go home kids.

Pawan said...

More subsidies:

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/govt-to-revive-subsidies-to-handle-drought-situation-393692.html

REBear said...

Maybe in the year 4,500 CE.

History has taught us well that an average Joe can never continue to be rich, its impossible. These Joe's are the ones who will not be able to get out when the bubble burst and will return to average state.

The intelligent is not the one who enters the market at right time, rather the one who timely exits the market.

Anonymous said...

"History has taught us well that an average Joe can never continue to be rich, its impossible. "

Either average Joe has a house or average Joe doesn't have a house.

I thought the whole premise of this blog is that average Joe can't afford a house. If average Joe doesn't have a house, then "average Joe can never continue to be rich".

If average Joe does have a house already, then what is the problem??!!

REBear said...

I thought the whole premise of this blog is that average Joe can't afford a house

Nop, thats not the premise but may be an implication. Rather the blog is about debating whether there exists a housing bubble in India, or in other words whether valuation of houses in local Indian currency(INR) is too high and unsustainable, or there is no bubble at all. For that matter bubble may be existing in stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. but the average Joe still might hold none of them.

What I and you occasionally see on this blog is people's frustration with the house prices because they are not affordable. The price of gold might also have gone up 10x in the last 10 years, but no body expresses frustration over it. I believe discussion about housing bubbles shouldn't be backed by frustration.

Anonymous said...

"The price of gold might also have gone up 10x in the last 10 years, but no body expresses frustration over it. "

That is because everyone owns some gold or the other. But not everyone owns RE.

REBear said...

That is because everyone owns some gold or the other. But not everyone owns RE.

Dumbest argument ever heard - Gold was just an example I gave. What if instead of Gold I mentioned ,say Apple's stock price, which has gone up almost 6 times in 3 years. Would you like to replace Apple Stock with gold in your reply ?

Also since you mentioned Indians hold Gold - how much Gold a middle class Indian family holds ? The notional profits of average family would run under 10 lakhs, not more. And I have lately seen people selling Gold for part financing of house or to prepay housing loan, so many of my personal contacts have done it to get "assured" shelter under their head.

Anonymous said...

That is the problem, elite people getting paid in dollars, as though they live in the US, while 95% getting paid in Inr. One sob makes 20 million, he screws rest of the population. Indian population 4 times with 1/4 the land. Tax the sob's 90% if they make over a certain income and limit nri's owning land/houses. Dhoni making more than Federer or Nadal is just crazy.

Anonymous said...

^ Then they talk about "just world". That the only reason why they make so much money is because they work harder. The poor slack who toils under the sun? Nah, he's just a lazy sob.

Anonymous said...

http://www.firstpost.com/economy/house-of-horrors-how-buyers-are-taking-on-the-big-builders-393871.html/2

Anonymous said...

Guys, I have been following this blog for last 3 years and accept with most of you guys about RE bubble in India.
However, I have started believeing that RE will not go down. Whatever points have been mentioned so far about RE bubble going burst are , economically,logically are 100% correct. But let's see the whole problem from different angle. Benny Uncle is relenetessly printing so as ECB. Dumb ass RBI is a blind follower of Uncle Sam so it keeps printing INR. Does any one know if INR is backed by something (like gold)? even if it is, valuation of gold being in $, doesn't change anything and RBI will keep printing to make sure Indians work for West. Well, what's the problem in endless printing? The system will eventually collapse due to hyperinflation and will lead to social unrest? So what...WTF cares? When the rulers are criminials and citizens are dumb idiots who keep worshippig non essential things like bollywood, cricket, ipl, mindless TV soaps etc, etc. when they themselves are living in dump of shit (without worry!), there is no hope....some one might comment that "You are an RE pimp, go and buy and be rich blah blah blah"...before they waste too much of energy, well I am a common man like most of you guys..I have been postponing my purchase since 2006...do I want to buy during this madness? Might, if I manage to buy the house without loan as I don't want to be slave of banks for rest of my life...Just my 2cents.
-VJ

Anonymous said...

every minute, 30 Indians are born= over 40 thousands per day. People living longer and 1.2 million per month born. This is not a good combination. No water, no electricity, every place smells like shit, no roads, but i can assure you, real estate not going to crash. Some of these guys had 100 fold increase in land prices, and they have cash in the bank earning 10%.

Anonymous said...

Of those 30 Indians born every minute, literally 29 are born to poverty. A real estate in a city is their last of dreams.

Anonymous said...

"One person asked the price of Tinda(Apple Gourd) and upon hearing price to be 60/- kg got stunned but ordered 0.5 kg. His wife said "aadha kilo mai kyaa hogaa", he replied "aloo milaa lenaa" :)

HEHE :) If his wife is super hot, he should buy 1 kg, and if she is not hot, stick with the .5 kg.

Anonymous said...

^ That my dear sir, made no sense.

Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/united-states-all-set-to-become-biggest-supplier-of-gold-to-india/articleshow/15262058.cms

You know that the gold market will now crash. USA to empty all the gold in Fort Knox to the hands of gold greedy Indian suckers. What will happen next, once all the sale is done Gold will go back to $700/oz. Please buy more gold...

Anonymous said...

"http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/united-states-all-set-to-become-biggest-supplier-of-gold-to-india/articleshow/15262058.cms"

This is another example of India investing significant portions of its wealth in unproductive assets like RE or Gold. Productive assets are assets such as factories, farms, refineries, warehouses, fisheries, airports and seaports which generate wealth and raise living standards for everybody.

This is going to have cataclysmic effects on the economy. Something's going to have to give...I'm not sure exactly what that will be.

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ARE said...

If the conclusion of caculation is accurate,it is ood for middlle class family.Now they can think to buy flats in Mumbai.It is unbelievable that there is a reduction in price of flats in Mumbai.It prooves that the number of builders has increased in Mumbai and they are constructing the building in uncountable numbers.It may be only reasons for reduction in cost of realestate in Mumbai city.

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Agra Real Estate said...

Hi I am disagree,That the price of realestate may be drop in coming future.The price of mangoes and onion
drops very high suddenly on the basis of demand and production.But the price of homes and flats never drop once it becomes high,the reason behind it is growing population in very high rate in our whole country not only in Mumbai.In our country Demand of homes and flats is very-very high and their production is low in the ratio of growing poulation.

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