Thursday, September 20, 2012

Those 80,000 unsold flats

Those 80,000 unsold flats





The onset of rains, and the end of a hot summer, means no more alphonso mangoes. During peak season those mangoes fetch Rs 1,000 for a dozen. But at first sign of rain, their market value drops to less than Rs 200.

The same is true of onions. When there is onion shortage, prices shoot up to maybe Rs 100 a kilo, and post harvest, typically in January when there’s a glut, prices crash to less than 5 rupees.

In the wholesale market yard of Lasalgaon, Asia’s biggest onion market, there have been farmers’ riots due to onion glut.

Onions and mangoes signify the extremes of price variations, but those price movements also illustrate the law of supply and demand. When there is excess supply prices have to drop.

Sounds almost like a tautology. Why does this law not apply to housing? A simple answer is that fruits and vegetables are perishables, hence their value declines rapidly.

Even a toothpaste or a mobile phone has finite shelf life. If there is a glut, prices will fall sooner or later. A glut in houses however seems to defy the law of demand.

A report by real estate consultant Knight Frank revealed this week that Mumbai has more than 80,000 flats lying unsold. This is in addition to maybe another 50 to 100 thousand flats which are vacant, but not available for sale.

The value of the unsold inventory is a staggering 1 trillion rupees. (This figure is also roughly equal to the entire annual income of all Mumbaikars).

The average price of those 80,000 flats is Rs 1.2 crore. That’s hundred times the income of an average Mumbaikar. A flat is affordable to those, whose annual income is at least 20 to 25% of its price.

How many Mumbaikars earn more than Rs 30 lakh annually? This is a tiny number, and most of them already own flats. So then who will buy those 80,000 unsold flats? Speculators from Hong Kong, Dubai or Singapore? If speculators bought, would they rent those flats? Not really, because there is already a glut of flats available for rents of about Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000 a month.

Rentals are falling. So speculators prefer to simply buy and wait, till prices zoom up again, so that they can sell and encash a profit.

Article Link

158 comments:

Anonymous said...

Would there be about 80,000 (or much less) "corrupt" govt servants and politicians in all of Maharashtra?
If your answer is anywhere with in the vicinity of a "yes", then these 80,000 apartments can remain unsold for ever. That's because of the infinite holding power of these guys.

Anonymous said...

Higher property tax with rebate for showing proof of residence.

Empty properties will become untenable and forced into market either as for sale or for rent.

I personally know of flats lying vacant in prime areas of Mumbai for 20-30 years. Owners are in Dubai and Japan and visit India for 1-2 weeks once every 2-3 years.

Anonymous said...

Dude this is old news. Lot of things have changed since then. The RE market is now on an upswing

Anonymous said...

Possibly similar reasons were used in the mid 90s in then Bombay. Outcome - prices fell 50% between 1996 and 1999.

Likely same will happen in Mumbai now.

Anonymous said...

The prices are not dropping in the next 15 years at least!!!
These prices have a lot of catching up to do. For example, NCR will catch up with Bombay prices (which are 2-3 times Gurgaon prices), and Bombay will catch up with Manhattan prices.
Hence, the only direction is UP!!!
And to clarify, I have no RE positions whether as an owner or dealer. I am just a recent convert after being a skeptic for many many years.

REBear said...

I am just a recent convert after being a skeptic for many many years.

This is EXACTLY what is required for RE bubble, or any Ponzi scheme, to bust. The more the market becomes bullish, closer is the peak.

Anonymous said...

// The prices are not dropping in the next 15 years at least!!! //

why should NCR prices be equal of Bombay, they can go even higher than Bombay prices. What makes you think prices will follow another city, what can't it increase more than other prime cities?

Please provide your analysis/thoughts rather than simply predictions.

SKG said...

>>>
I am just a recent convert after being a skeptic for many many years.
>>>

And where and how that happened? Did you suddenly found a Bodhi Tree?

What analysis did you do in your mind to get converted? enlighten us, Please.

-SKG

Anonymous said...

// The RE market is now on an upswing //

and where is your Proof? Please don't say this is what sellers are asking for... sellers can ask for anything or nothing. Reality is what are buyers are paying and how many buyers are there in market.

Anonymous said...

// I personally know of flats lying vacant in prime areas of Mumbai for 20-30 years. Owners are in Dubai and Japan and visit India for 1-2 weeks once every 2-3 years. //

so you think few insignificant numbers of Indian in foreign countries will keep buying RE every year and will visit and stay in 1 property per year for 2 weeks and they have nothing else to do with their RE for rest of 50 weeks?

Where is your common sense?

Anonymous said...

Builder+politician mafia has done it again.

The poor and middle class have been sold out to sustain the elite.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-09-17/news/33902849_1_largest-mall-single-brand-retail-reforms

If you can't put 2 and 2 together then you deserve to be deluded.

Anonymous said...

// The poor and middle class have been sold out to sustain the elite.//

Correct. Somethings NEVER change. Simply boycott what Elites are selling, learn to live without and with less needs. Also at the same time ask for what's your worth of time and services, no matter how small the work is, if you have what elites want... you name the price of your services based on their needs rather than own needs.

But alas poor people do not understand, they are busy visiting temples and doing 'mai-baaap'...

Enough said.

Anonymous said...

This is not 1990's when property prices dropped. How many Indians had Billions in 1990's?????? Forbes had a philanthropist meeting and it was pretty much a Indian and Jews meeting. They dont care if 80,000 1.2 crore remain unsold. Elites have no use of the guys making 60,000 a month and they dont want the 60,000 a month guy staying next to him. You think Sachin, Salman and Bachan want a 60,000 a month guy staying next to them??????? you think Bachans Daughter I Law wants to talk to the 60,000 a months wife???? hahahaha.

what needs to happen is a riot and it needs to burn down all these guys gated community flats, apts and houses. Too bad Osama is dead now.

SKG said...

The only thing which i cant understand is that what is the need of buying when plenty of them available for rent.

I mean any salaried class guy, why he or she fails to understand that the current salary and job can not be promised for next 20 yrs (the duration of typical home loan)?

what makes people take such a risk? I know one reason peer pressure but what are others?

-SKG

Anonymous said...

@Anon - "This is not 1990's when property prices dropped. How many Indians had Billions in 1990's"

So what happened in 2008 when prices dropped 40%? Where did the billions disappear?

Anonymous said...

Anon at 5:47 -
You think Sachin, Salman and Bachan want a 60,000 a month guy staying next to them??????? you think Bachans Daughter I Law wants to talk to the 60,000 a months wife???? hahahaha.

& these 'elites' are staying in and buying more of the Rs 1.2Cr properties? Nice Analysis.

GSM said...

You think Sachin, Salman and Bachan want a 60,000 a month guy staying next to them??????? you think Bachans Daughter I Law wants to talk to the 60,000 a months wife???? hahahaha.

And these elites bought vacation property in Dubai and Dubai is a place where all the back money pours in...and yet the property bubble burst there...Can any bull tell me what am I missing??

Anonymous said...

REBear said @ 5.01 AM...
"This is EXACTLY what is required for RE bubble, or any Ponzi scheme, to bust. The more the market becomes bullish, closer is the peak."

Been hearing about this peak for many years now. I am not sure any such peak exists. You can not put a limit on appreciation. Who would have thought just a few years back that Gold will be where it is today. Do you think Gold has peaked yet?

Anonymous said @ 6.05 AM
"why should NCR prices be equal of Bombay, they can go even higher than Bombay prices. What makes you think prices will follow another city, what can't it increase more than other prime cities?
Please provide your analysis/thoughts rather than simply predictions."

You are right, the prices in NCR CAN go higher than Bombay, or NY for that matter. People are no less moneyed here than the other 2 cities.
And, I am not predicting anything. I am just expressing an opinion based on what I see around me.

SKG said @ 6.30 AM
"And where and how that happened? Did you suddenly found a Bodhi Tree?
What analysis did you do in your mind to get converted? enlighten us, Please."

No, I did not find any Bodhi tree. I merely discovered the reality.
Again, my opinion is based on more research than yours.
And it is just an opinion.

People have way more ill gotten money than you and I can imagine. Also I think for the bursting of the bubble, one crucial element is the involvement of "Credit". At the consumer level, that is missing in India. Most people are comfortably placed due to having bought RE, with their own money, mostly in hard cash.
If at all any distress comes, that would be in the banking sector due to their exposure to the developers.
Anyway, I am no expert and there may be a downturn, but it looks unlikely considering the facts.

Anonymous said...

* "my opinion is based on "NO" more research than yours"
Sorry about that!!!

polt said...

@Anon - "Most people are comfortably placed due to having bought RE, with their own money, mostly in hard cash."

Surely you are joking Mr Anon. If that was indeed the case, why have home sales crashed with high interest rates? The RE industry more than any other is dependent on banking credit.

All money starts out white (at the RBI/Fed/BoE...). It gets into the banking system, gets multiplied due to fractional banking and a small part of this becomes black money. Even today the money supply in the banking system will dwarf by several orders of magnitude the amount of black money.

So our asset price rise was caused by easy credit just like in the other countries. You could make a case that the prices are supported by fundamentals (price/income, wage growth etc etc). But you CANNOT argue that black money will hold up RE. It simply is too small to counter the forces of banking credit. What do you think disappeared in 2008 when prices crashed 50%? It was not black money but banking credit - i.e. the great 'credit crunch'.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Polt, thanks for your response.
No body is debating that there are hardly any housing sales to the real user currently.
However, do note that we are not debating the sales numbers in the industry, what we are discussing is whether the bubble burst is imminent. If at all there is a bubble, that is.
Yes, higher interest rates have hurt the sales, but then I can take your own point and turn it around and ask you, why is it so that despite the high interest rates over the last couple of years, the "bubble" is yet to burst. Why do you not hear of any distress sales?
I think what needs to be discussed is whether there is a bubble at all.
A rapid and exponential appreciation in an asset class does not necessarily mean a bubble.
The brief dip of 2008 was more due to international circumstances and uncertainty than anything else.
We have all heard the whole "black money being a small fraction of the over all money supply" argument multiple times.
I will argue though that black money is great consolidating factor facilitating a much greater buying power to the holder.

Amit said...

Those who feel that people will keep holding it up, grow up. Nowhere would any Mumbaikar able to afford a flat given their income level. They have to resign themselves and live in slums, seeing those empty flats hold by spectaculars. Welcome to slum land.

polt said...

@Anon -
>"the "bubble" is yet to burst. "
In real terms it has in several cities. Check out residex numbers.

>"A rapid and exponential appreciation in an asset class does not necessarily mean a bubble."
It does if the underlying (present and future) cash flows do not support the asset prices.

>"The brief dip of 2008 was more due to international circumstances and uncertainty than anything else. "
Why was black money not a 'consolidating factor' in 2008? Why will it be a consolidating factor in the future then?

Anonymous said...

@Anon - "Why do you not hear of any distress sales? "

Ask the banks to reveal how many borrowers have had their loan term changed from 20 to 25+ and even 30 in some cases, due to interest rate hikes.

Anonymous said...

A lot of youngsters continue to enter labor force. IT salaries still seeing 10-15% increments YoY.

If this trend remains intact the RE prices will hold (if not appreciate)

Anonymous said...

Hindustan times reports that 62% of new housing (built between 2007 and 2012) is either vacant or locked up.
How's that for holding power?

Anonymous said...

"Hindustan times reports that 62% of new housing (built between 2007 and 2012) is either vacant or locked up.
How's that for holding power?"

Whats the difference between vacant and lockedup :)

In any case, if the above report is true, it will make the inevitable fall harder. Its no different from stocks/gold. Just because you dont have to sell/not willing to sell does not prevent the price from falling.

Anonymous said...

If a Govt employee is asking 80 lakhs for some help in Taxes, think how many times he has gotten 80 lakhs over the last 10 years. 100's of these Govt employees taking home crores of bribe moneys. My cousin is a customs officer, and all I know is that he is a multi millionare. He does not even care about his salary. India has 1000's of these guys making crores every year. Yes, he has bought some expensive bubbled up flats, but he is still making crores.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, he has bought some expensive bubbled up flats, but he is still making crores."

Well he has no other option.
He has brought them to hide his black money. why dont u just kill your cousin. you will be a hero for killing that rat.

Your cousin knows this. he also knows that he is not into it for making money but just for parking his money. So one fine day if real estate falls 50% he will infact be happy cuz it will lower his net worth and that means being less scared of getting caught

So my point is these people dont hold on to prices. They just need something to park their money. They dont bother about profits. Hence the bubble has to burst.

Its common sense.

Anonymous said...

The prospect of being the first to own a Trump branded property in India resulted in over 600 inquiries within the first week itself; and 10 sales within 10 days of making the announcement.

"We've taken a conscious decision to focus only on luxury residential projects in the future. Given this, it doesn't get much bigger than bringing the Trump brand to India," says Sagar Chordia, Director-Residential, Panchshil Realty.

"The increased global interest for India as a destination and growing number of high net worth individuals in the country translate into an increased demand for ultra luxury real estate."


This is the future of RE. In 10-15 years, the middle/working class will be totally priced out of city limits and relegated to outskirts and fringe villages.

In this scenario, either you are a have or a have-not.

As a previous poster correctly observed, I don't think the Bachans, Tendulkars or Ambanis are OK with having the riff-raff as neighbours.

Anonymous said...

^^^ Natural progression in a society brain washed into believing the poor are so due to their own choices and the rich came about to being so purely by their own hard work and merit.

Another symptom of this brainwashing is the trend of CXO types justifying compensation multiples of 300-400 times what the grunt makes on the assembly line.

Anonymous said...

Here comes the bailout:


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Eco-booster-continues-Package-for-realty-soon/articleshow/16520709.cms

We can keep arguing here while the government makes us debt slaves to the banks. And when crash happens, it will be really ugly.

Anonymous said...

I am disgusted with the day light robbery the likes of Chiddu are doing. Also, the fact that people think that stimulus of this type is actually good for the economy. This is going to balloon the fiscal deficit and also balloon the inflation. At the same time this will result in highway robbery as realtors take the money, hike prices and next year around say to Chiddu that now we have 50 Lac flats vacant with 100% increase in prices, if you want us to reduce the prices, give us more bailout!!!I think this bailout is for the investors and politicians themselves...they are taking the money and putting it in their pockets.

Amit said...

This is a lessons for genuine buyers how we have become milking cows to this filthy investors. How long are we going to allow the saying - paisa paisa ko keechtha hain. The rich would only grow richer and poor poorer? We have to stop this right here, right now. We have responsibility towards our family. These rich goons would travel in swanky cars, party whole day, while we slog in day and night to earn money to feed these greedy idiots because we want a roof on our head. Can't we realize the premium we have to pay, the happiness our families have to forfeit, the unnecessary struggle which our sons would inherits. SAY NO TO PROPERTY IN MUMBAI at this exorbitant prices.

Anonymous said...

SAY NO TO PROPERTY IN MUMBAI

Yeah i already did until prices crash. Now im the one leading the good life :) with no ambition to buy a property for a while.

Pawan said...

@Amit
The greedy idiots are everywhere.
The food you eat gets 10 times pricier from the farm to your doorstep. Would you stop eating too?

SKG said...

>>>>
The food you eat gets 10 times pricier from the farm to your doorstep. Would you stop eating too?

>>>>

No Offence Pawan, one can not live without food but can surely live in a rented shelter.

There are few things which are needed and few things which not needed but nice to have.
-SKG

Anonymous said...

Here's the thing; history teaches us that when a country goes through times like these, either a revolution or a territorial conflict with another nation occurs.
Indians being the "sheep-est" of the sheeple, you can pretty much rule out a revolution.
A war seems unforeseeable as well.
Hence, my conclusion is that we will continue plodding on, in the wake of the elite class.
This blog for sure is guaranteed to last an eternity.

Anonymous said...

^^Pawan

"The food you eat gets 10 times pricier from the farm to your doorstep. Would you stop eating too?"

YES, stop eating if you cannot afford to buy, grow your own, bring in more income to afford... for this you may have to charge more for all work you do (must be doing some work - right?)....

what would is your solution if food gets pricier and cannot afford?

Same goes for RE, find alternatives, go for solution. Ganapati Bappa wouldn't come to your house and offer you food everyday.

Anonymous said...

what would is your solution if food gets pricier and cannot afford?

Here's my default plan:

Steal, murder, rape.

And if I've survived after all this, join politics...

LOL

Anonymous said...

// Steal, murder, rape.

And if I've survived after all this, join politics...
//

Now that is a PLAN. What were you waiting for? Diwali?

Anonymous said...

According to most people here we dont have a real estate bubble. Politicians, super rich ppl, NRIs and maybe some aliens have infinite holding power and will keep buying and holding property indefinitely.

What doesnt seem to be coming into play here is that our country is going to see some hard times for the next 2-3 years. This is exactly what happened in 1995 with the Congress govt mishandling everything and the real estate bubble popped. The next two years of coalition govts got us 3 PMs. NRIs were supposed to come back from Hong Kong (which was being handed over to the Chinese in 97) and buy property. Seawoods (NRI complex) near Vashi, Mumbai came up for this purpose and the rate was 100$ per sq. ft.

The same set of reasons were used to justify "a permanent plateau" for real estate prices. No land left, politicians, deep pockets of builders etc. In spite of that when prices cracked, they fell 70% from peak bottoming out in 2001.

Economic cycles will run their course. As flats are now being used as investment vehicles they will now be subject to laws of investment finance. Its obvious over valuation when a 1 crore flat gets a rental of 2.4 lakhs pa. and the same money give 9 lakhs pa in FDs (pre tax).

Recently I saw a cobbler with a board proclaiming that he is also a real estate broker. That is the clincher. When everyone is into a business then its the top for sure.

Wait patiently, good times for real estate purchasers right ahead. Mostly around elections.

Anonymous said...

@Anon - " No land left, politicians, deep pockets of builders etc. In spite of that when prices cracked, they fell 70% from peak bottoming out in 2001. "

Expect a 'this time is different' reply very soon :) The bulls on this blog simply refuse to accept that the underlying cash flows (rents) do not justify the prices.

Something has to give, and with the current economy and wage growth I certainly don't see rents rising rapidly.

Anonymous said...

Canada almost at bursting point ... New home sales in Toronto (canadas largest RE market) fell 70% !!
See http://www.greaterfool.ca/

Wonder what the numbers are for Mumbai? May not be as bad as above but would be pretty grim nevertheless.

KSM said...

The thugs(you read it right) like chidambaram already pressurizing RBI to cut the rates. When inflation is stubbornly above 10% these so called harward educated idiots are asking for rate cut and I am quite sure they would get it in October. This will be used to save real estate thugs.

KSM said...

Now with latest so called 'reforms' of selling whatsoever remains in the country, RE thugs are expecting to milk the likes of Walmart and Co. What you guys are thinking about that?

Now it is 100% sure domestic consumption is slowed and it near the breakdown point. But Congress is trying to boost consumption by kicking Subbarao's Ass and other activities.

How it would turn out? I think guys like Polt, RE Bear can come out with some post about the 'after reforms' period

KSM said...

I read somewhere in this blog that Indians are the sheepest or sheeple. That is very true. Inspite of high inflation we dont raise our voice.

People like mamata who raise voice are branded as retards.

People who should raise voice like journalists, already become paid journists and busy counting money and mud slugging on Mamata and likes

Middle class who can create opinion are already bought Real Estate and waiting with batted breath that the RE should not fall. So it is tricky now.

Anonymous said...

The last 3 years have seen unprecedented price rise in this country and utter mismanagement. It has got to pay someday.

Stalker said...

I hope this blog lasts for 100 years because if the market tanks, this blogger will have no work and will shut down saying "I told you so"; and if the market tanks then I will have no work (no I'm not a real estate broker)

If the market crashes, which 90% of the sheep here say it should/will let me tell you that the country will be bought to its knees. Think 94-95. Most of you hoping to buy a flat once the crash happens, will start worrying about your jobs, about your future and will put off buying your 'dream flat' due to the recession or slow down. Most of you will also be left behind when the market does start rising as you'll will be reading only bad news and bad reports about the economy so you'll will wait again.

Repeat cycle. I dont know what the age group for this site is but if you'll are under 25-30 ask your parents what happened.


Anonymous said...

One crucial difference between the crash of the 90s and today is the amount of money that people in general have. And I do not mean just the corrupt, but just everyday neighborhood people.
Be it the corner grocery store owner or the mechanic or the farmers in villages bordering the cities.
There is unprecedented all round prosperity.
And each of the above wants a piece of the RE action, whether for use or as investment.
And all those stories of vacant flats is erroneous and misleading. Show me one complex in Gurgaon which does not fill up with in 6 months of possession.
What the bears need to understand is that this time it IS indeed different.
How long this period of prosperity lasts in the face of inflation and other international factors is another story.

Anonymous said...

@Anon - "Show me one complex in Gurgaon which does not fill up within 6 months of possession."

See
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2012/20120404/haryana.htm#1

From the article - ' considerable increase in the total number of vacant houses, 6.19 lakh in 2011 as against 3.22 lakh in 2001 and 2.58 lakh in 1991. '
and
'Gurgaon led with 18.7 per cent of the vacant houses ...'

>"...this time it IS indeed different."
Sure buddy. Whatever.


Anonymous said...

"I read somewhere in this blog that Indians are the sheepest or sheeple. That is very true. Inspite of high inflation we dont raise our voice.

People like mamata who raise voice are branded as retards.

People who should raise voice like journalists, already become paid journists and busy counting money and mud slugging on Mamata and likes

Middle class who can create opinion are already bought Real Estate and waiting with batted breath that the RE should not fall. So it is tricky now.
"

Yeah indians are sheep although sheeps are atleast gentle and innocent. indians are losers. we all know that. the world hates indian people (indian women are appreciated for their beauty though) and rightly so. they are only interested in looting india.

Not just politicians. Everyone is greedy and holding on to prices. that is why india loses huge amounts in money doubling schemes or chit funds. So serves them right.

Anyways, when recession sets in i hope people raise their voice. Right now everyone is prospering so no reason to complain.

Everyone is holding on to a rope and climing up. More and more people are joining in. Only the smart ones (some of them in this blog, most in the government) know that the rope is about to break :)

Anonymous said...

Anybody here foresees a Greece like situation in India in the near future?

Anonymous said...

@Anon - "Anybody here foresees a Greece like situation in India in the near future?"

Unlikely.

Unproductive Greece is forced to compete against the likes of mighty Germany in the same currency.
We have our own currency that can be devalued and makeup for our lack of productivity.
We might see high inflation as a result though.

Anonymous said...

I may not be too touch with the India now, it does surprises me the Indian people haven't revolted after steep power traffic hike, cap on subsidized LPG, high inflation etc. Affordable real esate would be least of their concern at this moment.

aam aadmi said...

Anybody here foresees a Greece like situation in India in the near future?

Greece is a stable society with a single language, ethnicity and comparatively lower pressures on land and resources, in spite of all the trouble, the Greek poor lead far better lives compared to their Indian counterparts.

Greece will look like a walk in the park when India goes down that route.

GSM said...

in spite of all the trouble, the Greek poor lead far better lives compared to their Indian counterparts.

Not a fair way to look at things. People of Greece who borrowed and spent to live a good life is not richer than some one in India who live within their means and save. Is our lives much better from last 10 years. Do poor people have hope that they will be lifted out of poverty in India once their children grow up in next 10 years. Can you say the Greece people are as confident in next 10 years?

aam aadmi said...

Not a fair way to look at things. People of Greece who borrowed and spent to live a good life is not richer than some one in India who live within their means and save

Haven't we borrowed and spent other people's money?? The difference is that while we can devalue our currency they can't. I agree with you that the problem is of expectations. Relatively they are worse off though on an absolute level the people of Greece are much better off than people of India, they are educated, still got decent public infrastructure, have villages to go back to where they can farm, they still have fisheries and a thriving tourism business.

What do we have ? Our villages are over populated, water levels are depleting and we have truly trashed our rivers for a long time to come.

Media likes to put a spin on everything, stop looking at it through their lens. Haven't you noticed that they have stopped reporting about Iceland. A country's wealth are it's natural resources and it's people. On what parameters do you see India as better than Greece.

GSM said...

On what parameters do you see India as better than Greece.

hmm..Lets see

1. I don't think borrowing is a bad thing as long as we can produce something tangible for the currency to chase. In India, we do manufacture a lot of stuff. Of course, we will gradually move out of low cost manufacturing to high value stuff over a period of time. Check the wage increases Maruti is handing over for its Gurgaon workers.

2. Indian's have a vast savings of around Rs. 7L crore which can fund Govt borrowing unlike Greece having to beg ECB for every bailout. Also, think about the value of Govt owned industries that can be privatized.

3. Unlike Greece, we do not have any free health care or social security, so any austerity will not impact common people. The subsidies on petrol, electricity, LPG etc are anyway being cut one by one.

3. The vast working population of India will keep adding to the demand and hence taxes for another 25 years whereas in Greece the baby boomers are a overhead to the Govt. Add to it the life expectancy.

4. Speaking of corruption, however bad the scams are, I do see a trend. For ex, nothing happened in Bofors scam, but 2G scam, some one is still in Jail and the losses are going to be recovered soon.

5. On infrastructure, as China is showing with a bubble, it can be addressed in just 5 years.

This does not mean that we will not have economic shocks, but we should be able to recover much quicker like the Asian countries after 1996 crisis.

Anonymous said...

Well put GSM.
I guess there is more and more agreement on this blog that India is indeed different than all the other economies in terms of fundamentals and resilience.
Things are already great and getting better all the time.
Look at the wage increase for Maruti workers. Take home is no less than what Detroit workers used to make.
In fact, compare the salaries in most sectors with equivalent positions in America.
Imagine the purchasing power of this salaried class.
Indian RE is no longer dependent on just black money.
Prices are set to zoom 2X or even 3X in the short term.

aam aadmi said...

@GSM
I will give in on the savings front, we do have a high savings rate like most Asian economies given our culture. But how much of it withstands the inflationary fire that is currently raging remains to be seen. FD and small savings are already dropping like a rock. Who is going to keep money in a bank for 8% when inflation is close to 12-15%.

I think most of your other points are more or less related to the demographic dividend concept, I think it's a false belief that population growth automatically implies economic growth. It doesn't, there are plenty of examples which prove this point. Traditional economics has grown around the concept of assuming that resources are infinite which is why economics 101 only teaches about labor and capital and discounts natural resources and social factors like education and culture.

In the absence of education and resources which India critically lacks this dividend has the potential to become a bomb. Though right now we can only speculate on this point since we are yet to see how this will play out in the coming decades.

As far as govt expenditure goes, even though we don't have social security, govt spending is massive and critical. Imagine the amount of money that is spent every year by the Govt keeping insurgencies, naxalism and terrorism in check. It's an area that will be adversely impacted by austerity measures. Greeks don't have to worry about these things after all. Also areas like Railways, roads etc remain under Govt control, without govt expenditure these sectors will and are already deteriorating.

SKG said...

>>>
Indian RE is no longer dependent on just black money.
>>>

Correct, it is dependent upon people who think like GSM-:) (no offence!)

>>>
Prices are set to zoom 2X or even 3X in the short term.
>>>

3X? I think prices will zoom to 10X and going forward we would need a logarithamic table to calculate the prices because there will be so many zero's and to the power of positions with the numbers that one would need to shorten them using log to remember easily.

And by that time india will be no.1 superpower in the world.leaving everybody behind and indians would be in heavens-:)

-SKG

SKG said...

>>>
Greece is a stable society with a single language, ethnicity and comparatively lower pressures on land and resources
>>>

very well said aam admi.

This single statement says it all,Even if they are in trouble today they have strong chances of rebounding back.what our indian sheepels will do? "Mandir mein ja ke ghanta bajayenge?" why others are not able to see the difference?

-SKG

GSM said...

Correct, it is dependent upon people who think like GSM-:) (no offence!)

Look, I never said prices will not fall or even mention black money. I was just trying to give a independent view which is missing sometimes. But hey, no offence, the fact is many people are waiting from years for you guys' analysis to come true :-)

Greece is a stable society with a single language, ethnicity and comparatively lower pressures on land and resources

This single statement says it all,Even if they are in trouble today they have strong chances of rebounding back.


Can you explain the wisdom? US has immigrants from all religions, ethnicity and language, yet none seem to affect economics. In fact if any, it produces a much better cross breed of future generation :-).

From 2010, Greece is only going deeper into recession and strking headlines every other day. The labor cost is 30% more than that in Germany which means they need to reduce the standard of living by 30%. Do you think they will accept without more damaging economic activity by strikes? Do they know English to atleast run a voice BPO? What are the MNC's from Greece that we know of? Workforce is reducing and more importantly money supply base is reducing which means there is no money left for increasing economic activity.

In the absence of education and resources which India critically lacks this dividend has the potential to become a bomb.

I believe it is correct in a closed system but we are not living in one. Dubai for example lacks both, but yet were able to create growth with per capita income equalling developed countries with in a generation.

Anonymous said...

Corruption and regional politics is going to kill any chances of India progressing to a developed society.

It's too easy to milk the votes by keeping the sheeple materially and intellectually impoverished.

aam aadmi said...

Can you explain the wisdom? US has immigrants from all religions, ethnicity and language, yet none seem to affect economics. In fact if any, it produces a much better cross breed of future generation

It's not very hard to explain. US does not have any significant native populations of ethnic groups, everyone is an immigrant hence everyone's on the same footing, even with that many people are already making noises about anglo-whites becoming a minority. This conflict will come to a head later (cue the anti immigrant drives in Arizona, Alabama etc). Moreover the diversity in US is not so entrenched as in India, everyone speaks English and follows roughly the same cultural norms. You want to compare then compare with Africa or Europe or other parts of Asia.

Multi-ethnic populations do very well in times of prosperity, not so much during times of crisis. That's basic history 101.

aam aadmi said...

I think people are missing the big picture here...Europe is economically devastated yes but only because they are used to a reality that is far too grandiose. Even if the Spanish or Greek living standards were to decline by say 20-30% they would still be living a life far more comfortable than that of any third world citizen.

The problem is psychological to a great extent. It's like asking someone used to driving a BMW to drive a Maruti 800. It's not really a problem if you think about it.

SKG said...

Again...

History lesson 101

Divide and rule works better if you have diversity in the name of religion/region/language?

How British ruled india? How politicians are ruling now?

The 3 common causes of all the troubles - Zar (Money/greed)/Zoru (Women)/Zameen (Land)

it works better when people have differences.Whenever there is a common cause (in other words lack of difference!) or umbrella union (like religion or depression) there has been a revolution.

Do i need to draw a diagram now? This is the same big picture which aam aadmi is talking about more or less..

-SKG

SKG said...

>>>
the fact is many people are waiting from years for you guys' analysis to come true :-)

>>>

Belive me, with little knowledge and thinking power I have got I am also as surprised as you are that why it is not happening.But trying to figure out that what and where our hypothesis is wrong? once we find that we can redesign hypothesis and test again.-:)

-SKG

Anonymous said...

The problem is psychological to a great extent. It's like asking someone used to driving a BMW to drive a Maruti 800. It's not really a problem if you think about it.

The situation is much more complex than that. Greece politicians have sold their country down the river.

Europe "crisis" is about who will bear the pain of the economic loss caused by the looting that went on during the boom years.

Since the elite are writing the rules, they've sacrificed the peasants who are now revolting.

Anonymous said...

BTW. Europe story is same spinoff of US.

Private investors and hedge funds made tons of money during boom years by knowingly loaning to individuals who couldn't pay back. MBS were so hot that banks couldn't make enough loans to satisfy the "investor" demand.

Now even economically illiterate person knows better than to loan money to someone who clearly cannot pay back.

So why did savvy bankers and fund managers go along and take this "stupid" action?

Except they weren't "stupid". These bastards control the US government (or to put it bluntly, they are the US government) and when the SHTF they quickly made up new rules to transfer all bad loans to the government (aka taxpayer).

Privatize profits, socialize losses, is how the last 10+ years can be summarized.

After a brief flirtation with democracy, we have come full circle to be ruled by a new royalty!

Europe's peasants are first to feel this pain. The rest will soon follow...

Anonymous said...

http://www.mid-day.com/news/2012/sep/270912-mumbai-Rs-2-lakh-for-a-12-hour-view-of-visarjan.htm

2 lakh rate for 12 hours and people are willing to pay. And people here wonder that Indians have no money

DingDing said...

It is not about Homogeneity or Heterogeneity !

Question that needs to be asked what does one prefer a static equilibrium or a dynamic equilibrium.

Everything else is a consequence !

aam aadmi said...

The situation is much more complex than that. Greece politicians have sold their country down the river.

Every country gets the government it deserves unless it's a dictatorship. I don't see how the entire blame can be forced on the heads of a few politicians. Everyone is responsible. Isn't India corrupt ? Isn't China ? but they are not having the same problems right now are they ? Southern Europe's problem is that of competitiveness. They need to either increase their productivity even higher or devalue their currency in order to live and compete in this globalized world.

Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Is there a bubble in RE in India? Well, I'm not able to remember a price rise that has been holding out for more than 10+ years as in our case. Japanese RE + Stock bubble or going back old times, the Tulip mania or South sea bubble (where Issac Newton lost money) are some bubbles which did not have price rises like the RE price raise in India.

Well all this still does not mean that we do not have a bubble. It is just too damn difficult to predict.

The same goes for Gold, Silver and other precious metals as well, they have been rising and rising...

Anonymous said...

// The same goes for Gold, Silver they have been rising and rising. //

Gold and silver price is not going up but the currencies are losing value.

my neighbor told me he built a house for 15 lakhs in his village 10 years back and now it is worth 70 lakhs. I told him he dint make any money and asked him to calculate the house price in terms of gold grams.
Guess what? he called me in the evening and shared his surprise! we paid x grams of gold 10 years back and today also it cost x grams gold!

GSM said...

Guess what? he called me in the evening and shared his surprise! we paid x grams of gold 10 years back and today also it cost x grams gold!


With one important difference. I bet he didn't have 15 Lakhs then so he took a home loan. For which he got lowest borrowing interest, income tax rebate and rental income. Over a period inflation wiped off his debt. Whereas if he had to buy gold, he didn't have the 15Lakhs in 1st place. That is the magic of leverage.

Anonymous said...

Now the values are being justified in terms of Gold and Silver.
Try and explain in whatever way you guys want to, there has never been nor there ever will be a better investment and wealth creator than the Indian RE.

Anonymous said...

//there has never been nor there ever will be a better investment and wealth creator than the Indian RE.//


Buy a house and sleep, wake up wealthy!
Thats all we have to contribute to this healthy society. And that invaluable contribution will make us eligible to enjoy the hard labor of farmers who clean cow dung and all 365 days.(Yeah cow doesnt know sundays!)

Proud to be part of such a society!

REBear said...

http://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/Now-home-buyers-can-repay-in-30-years/articleshow/16581613.cms

Clear sign of desperation in order to prevent the bubble from bursting in the wake of weakening demand.

aam aadmi said...

@above
Wow. Are we also going towards ZIRP ? If they make the starting equity close to 5%, I would also jump in and help bankrupt the economy and banks.

GSM said...

http://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/Now-home-buyers-can-repay-in-30-years/articleshow/16581613.cms

Clear sign of desperation in order to prevent the bubble from bursting in the wake of weakening demand.


I was just checking.. For 50L loan at 10.5%, EMI for 15 years is 55,270 whereas for 30 years it is 45,737. If a person is not able to afford 15 years EMI will he be able to afford 30 years EMI. I don't think so. 30 year loans are of no use in India where the interest rate is high. If I make the same calc for 4% fixed interest which is in US, the EMI comes out to be 36,984 vs 23,871. Well this case makes a good deal. Anyone explain me the rational of the SBI bankers to introduce this scheme?

GSM said...

Wow. Are we also going towards ZIRP ? If they make the starting equity close to 5%, I would also jump in and help bankrupt the economy and banks.

I would however wait until I get a interest only mortgage for first 8 years and my liability limited to the house only :-)

sahil verma said...

I am shahil verma I’ve register in this discussion for just today. I am looking for the property in India at present, I've been working at a
India real estate property & Thanks for sharing the information’s that’s a good blog post.

sahil verma said...

I am shahil verma I’ve register in this discussion for just today. I am looking for the property in India at present, I've been working at a
India real estate property & Thanks for sharing the information’s that’s a good blog post.

Anonymous said...

If you guys cant buy in NCR or Tier1 cities, new properties are being developed just 80-100 Kilometers from major metros. Perhaps it is time to consider those. These may still be available for an affordable price and will give great return on investment in 2-3 years time.

Anonymous said...

We are different, so we'll just be debt slaves to conform to societal pressure to buy:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/Features/High-inflation-higher-EMIs-hard-times/Article1-937246.aspx

Anonymous said...

"http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/Features/High-inflation-higher-EMIs-hard-times/Article1-937246.aspx"

From the article - "Also, 75 to 80% of the home buyers have taken the benefit of extending the period of repayment."

Folks here keep on how we are loaded with hard cash and that interest rates hardly matter. If 75% of home buyers have extended the period of repayment, it goes to show the level of financial stress in the middle class today.

2013 is going to be quite interesting.

Anonymous said...

In related news a 3200 sq ft. flat in Mumbai sold for 39 crores.

That is ~120000 INR per sq ft.

A very small percentage of Indians are flush with unimaginable amounts of money.

But in a country of a billion plus, even the 0.1% represent tens of lakhs of individuals who can drop tens of crores like it was chump change.

When resources are plentiful such inordinate differences in wealth don't matter much. As resources get scarce such disparity in wealth will inevitably crowd out everyone else.

Today it's land and RE that is out of reach of the vast majority, tomorrow it will be food, fuel and water. This society is setup for failure...

aam aadmi said...

@Anon at 5:43
Yes it's in line with the above news item that banks are rolling out longer term mortgages.
IMO most Indian banks are already sitting on top of bad loans, they are just hiding it through creative accounting and rolling them over when maturity comes. Imagine what will happen if a public sector bank becomes insolvent ? I don't want to be anywhere around it when that happens.

el toro said...

There is no way the government is letting this bubble burst, if there is one, that is.
The entire Indian consumption story is based on the wealth effect that every one from a slum dweller to a billionaire is experiencing based on unprecedented valuation of RE holdings.
If these valuations were to decline by even a few percentage points, sales of almost all luxury items (cars, consumer electronics etc.) will drop by at least 50% bringing the economic growth to stall speed.
The party continues folks.
The government controls everything, including economic data.

Anonymous said...

All parties have to come to an end one day or the other...
This too shall pass.

Anonymous said...

Inlaws just sold half acre with house for 2.5 crores in Kerala.:(

Anonymous said...

Dear Anon @ 6.04, why are you unhappy with the sale of the in-law's house.
Did you not get a share in the half million booty??? :-)

Anonymous said...

Property is near the airport, and it was worth about 25 L in 2000. I could have bought the property for that amount in 2000. I do not like anybody making $$$$$$, especially if they make more than me. All those beauty contestants that finish in second place, always say " i am happy for you", when talking about the winner. I am the SOB who will say, F u Bit*h, i hope you die.

Anonymous said...

"I am the SOB who will say, F u Bit*h, i hope you die."

HAHAHAHAHA!!!
I know exactly how you feel!!!

Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Can the admins please delete these annoying property advertisements from touts like the ones right above at 12:41 AM & 2:54 AM?

Anonymous said...

Dharmendra Singh what is the increase of rent on six monthly basis to that of market value of property since 2004. Cut this crap and catch fool somewhere else

Anonymous said...

A prominent builder who comes from a builder family for last 50 years told me and I have heard others too say why there should be VAT when Stamp Duty was charged

Today the VAT and Service Tax is levied anyway can anyone do anything about it.

VAT is still at 1 % in Maharashtra also Service Tax People say this makes it unaffordable

My question is when was it affordable for majority in Mumbai since 1985 and tier 2 cities last 20 years and tier 3 cities last 7/8 years.

Govt can do many things very often.
VAT is 12.5 % mostly so is Service Tax it is still less.

Majority only counts when there is an election or there is cricket match or some Olympic Game. When it comes to education, employment, work conditions, health, housing, infrastructure, minimum wages, human rights who cares. They are deceived when there is cricket match but their livelihood no one cares

Agra Real Estate said...

I want to say that percentage of aristocrat in Mumbai is 20% while average inhabitants in Mumbai are 80% and the cost of flats in Mumbai are beyond the capability of average inhabitants in Mumbai.They have a need and interested in Buying flat,but it is high above their capacity therefore it is only matter of dream in reality they can not buy their flats.and who are capable they are very less in numbers and they have already numbers of flat.Hence according to my opinion these are the reasons for thousands of flats in Mumbai are vacant and still unsold.

Anonymous said...

Investors are now running away from real estate

People used to often quote how some flat was sold for lacs of rupees / square feet...well it looks like that jig is up.

Anonymous said...

^^^ Investors are behaving rationally. So we are not in a bubble?

Bubble watchers need to make up their minds. When folks line up to buy RE, we're in a bubble. When folks stay away from RE, we're in a bubble...

Bubble seems to be in your heads only.

aam aadmi said...

We are in a bubble because you can get cheaper better homes elsewhere. See the prices in East Asia for example.

Anonymous said...

@aam aadmi,

Why are you taking east asia as the baseline, why not two extremes like Detroit or Tokyo?

Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
aam aadmi said...

Because East Asian economies are not sinking like Japan or Europe's. They are on a 'growth' trajectory like us. That's the usual line given for India's inflated RE market isn't it.

And Detroit ?? Really. It's a city made for two million which houses only 700k people. Many parts of the city are dead zones where even the cops are afraid to go.

Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dharmendra Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

^^^^^^
Goddamnit, Admin. Could you please delete these spams?

Anonymous said...

I am not sure the reason, but there has been an increase or at least 300% in the number of RE offers via SMS on my phone.
Not sure if it is a bullish sign or desperation.

Anonymous said...

^^^^ //but there has been an increase or at least 300% in the number of RE offers via SMS on my phone.//

Are you buyer or seller or investor or broker ? well bullish or bearish depends who you are.

aam aadmi said...

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/10/03/strapped-europeans-swap-cars-for-bikes/

The heading is enough. But this line caught my attention

For the first time since World War II, sales of bicycles surpassed those of cars in Italy.

If it hasn't sunk in read it again...For the first time since World War II

This ain't your garden variety, run of the mill recession.

Pawan said...

http://www.firstpost.com/investing/hot-money-pe-investors-are-getting-burnt-by-realty-479003.html

Prashanth said...

I have been a big bear though everyone in my family says i am being like don quixote aloof from reality.. who carezz... let this scam continue i am not gonna get sucked in.. there are far more important things than putting my entire life savings in a 1000 sft dingy with minimal infratsructure. will stay with my parents till i feel i am too much of a burde, go to the US take up a nice row house on rent work for few years drive a nice car , go on yearly vacations and then come back to india, put my kids in a decent school, rent out as much as i can and prolly buy a 400 sft retirement home in a gated community..

water is becoming a problem
travel is getting expensive
medical expenses is getting expensive
power is getting expensive

i think these are more critical to spend than a brick and mortar. i am gonna increase my investments in gold, insurance . i might be a loser but at least i can have a good nights sleep. have a small home in a tier 2 city as backup and one in a village with decent water supply.

Anonymous said...

Got electricity bills today. I hear a lot of people around my locality really want to join the burn-the-electricity-bill campaign. In this very same area people are buying/selling 100 sq.ft pigeonholes for crores.

aam aadmi said...

@Above
You are angry about electricity bills ?? Thanks your stars. Electricity rates in India are kept artificially low, they need to go up by anything from 1.5 to 3 times to justify the amount of money that the Govt and banks are burning in the SEB's. This party has only begun.

Anonymous said...

What electricity problem - may be you all need to step out to real world during festival - there is no problem with electricity or it's bill. Now Navratri is around corner - please keep your eyes and mind open and of-course your wallet (that is filled with crores).

ambu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ambu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ambu said...

http://ambu-thoughts.blogspot.in/2012/10/another-real-estate-rant.html

ah_desai said...


If 80,000 empty flats in Mumbai, or 23% in Navi Mumbai sound a lot... then hold your breath!

Bangalore has 2 Lakh empty flats:
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-karnataka/article3736315.ece

In a city that is around half the population of Mumbai and hardly any slums i.e. not huge demand like Mumbai that is a crazy number. Is it not a bubble?

ambu said...

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-04-12/news/31331405_1_capital-gains-bonds-54ec-bonds-real-estate

Those foolish high worth individuals; Putting money in essentially Fixed Deposits like low class workers. Don't they know that real estate will double in the next 5 years.

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