Truth is stranger then fiction. India's housing bubble pales in contrast to the bubble in China. China cannot afford to slow down as it has a massive population to feed. If the bubble burst's the investors go down with the working class.
Just absurd.
What a China slowdown means to the world economy is something nobody wants to talk about. Ask any analyst on CNBC and they would just brush it aside.
The latest CBS 60 minutes video is here.
Just absurd.
What a China slowdown means to the world economy is something nobody wants to talk about. Ask any analyst on CNBC and they would just brush it aside.
The latest CBS 60 minutes video is here.
275 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 275 of 275I hope they don't ruin the golf courses with chemicals, I would like to grow some vegetables on them one day.
The elites have your nutrition worries taken care of.
Australia transfers technology for genetically modified bananas to India.
Once this Pandoras box is open there is no going back!
It shouldn't surprise anyone if GM foods are already being sold in India without the people being wiser especially since the government's own data reveals large scale food adulteration in the country.
So the supply chain is in place and completely willing and able to provide the lowest quality, even harmful, food. All we need are the right political and corporate enablers to start the GM revolution in Mera Bharat Mahan.
>Indian IT is going to grow further. Soon 20% hikes will be the norm. RE bubble burst will have to wait atleast for one generation
Assuming the 5-6 big companies (Infy, Wipro, TCS, Cognizant, HP, IBM) employ around 100k each, the rest of the IT companies are quite small. The high payers (Microsoft, Google, Intel etc) employ less than about 2k.
So we are looking at about 750k-1M IT employees. Out of these maybe 10% (100k) will probably be earning more than 20L pa. The Incometax dept says only 400K people in India declare an income of more than 20L.
Will this industry really support a nationwide bubble affecting 1.2B people?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Slowdown-in-IT-space-hits-commercial-real-estate-sector/articleshow/19185262.cms
Pretty soon residential will be hit too.
@Anonymous at 9:25 PM
Indian IT is going to grow further. Soon 20% hikes will be the norm. RE bubble burst will have to wait atleast for one generation
The report you cited is from CLSA which most of the time is unreliable. Full blown US recovery is still questionable though with soaring inflation there.
And how about the following proposed in US immigration reforms. Its sure to hurt Indian prospective H1b holders and therefore our Current Account Deficit and thus our economy and thus RE.
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-03-23/news/37960766_1_h-1b-visa-requirements-and-outplacement-rules-wage-requirements-and-outplacement
Anon above:
It is time to wake up and go back to school. Don't dream too much.
@REBear
I've been expecting some kind of immigrant backlash building up for some time now, when the local economies are in distress, how long do you expect the locals to put with cheap immigrant labor ?
Not for very long.
For example due to Maharashtra droughts locals are now flooding Pune and Mumbai where they compete directly with laborers and workers from UP and Bihar, if it doesn't rain properly this year I'd give about four months to those from other states engaged in manual labor and lower level service jobs to pack their bags.
@aam aadmi
I've been expecting some kind of immigrant backlash building up for some time now, when the local economies are in distress, how long do you expect the locals to put with cheap immigrant labor ?
There is already very strong xenophobia persisting in the minds of Americans, Canadians, Australians, Singaporeans,...every developed country citizen. Everyone knows that the H1B visa is a way to bring BONDED LABOR to America at lower prices, as opposed to truely high skilled migrants difficult to find in United States.
I have been very closely following up developments on the immigration reforms proposed in America, notably the Startup Visa act introduced by Senator Jerry Moran. One would think that its beneficial to Americans as it imports entrepreneurs who create jobs for Americans, but on the contrary if you see the comments on the news articles such as the one below you would not see a SINGLE post to support such a proposal from Americans. The posts clearly say "stop this scam, these people will come to America, the ventures they found will fail after a year and then they become a burden on local economy".
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/03/should-we-give-visas-to-immigrants-who-create-startups/
If you have time, search google for "US Startup visa", "Canada startup visa" and read all the articles and comments. No one wants Indians/Chinese to enter their boundaries !
Of course its a different matter whether its right or wrong. For instance, Americans want to consume cheap Chinese products rather than the ones made in America and at the same time shut the doors for cheap foreign labor. Its a poor economics and just doesn't works.
How many companies file for how many H1B with salaries is listed on the site below. You can probably find out how much your boss makes if you know the month/year of hire on GC/H1B. This data is only for US based employees.
http://salaryquest.com/
Surprisingly many H1Bs make a lot of money like with GS or surgeons etc.
There is already very strong xenophobia persisting in the minds of Americans, Canadians, Australians, Singaporeans,...every developed country citizen
Inspite of this, I can guarantee you that 50% of Indians will be more safer in any of these countries as compared to India.
Inspite of this, I can guarantee you that 50% of Indians will be more safer in any of these countries as compared to India.
Well I don't know how to compare, I stay in Delhi and have also been to San Francisco. Have not been a victim at either place. On the other hand, the crime statistics shows interesting figures showing one in every 149 people to be a crime victim. It appears that SFO has higher crime rate than New Delhi.
http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/san-francisco/crime/
http://homes.yahoo.com/news/the-most-expensive-real-estate-markets-in-the-world-011227799.html?page=all
As you bears can see there is still some climbing to be done before the prices here start to look unreasonable.
Wow!! great post. Thanks for sharing such a nice article. I enjoyed reading such article.
My Property | Real Estate Investment
Another Joke of the day from Joke Republic of India:
Entrepreneur Robert Vadra's sale of 3.5 acres in Haryana to real estate giant DLF for 58 crores was fair and he did not receive illicit discounts from the Congress which has governed the state since 2004, a government committee has concluded. It has indicted Ashok Khemka, who was the top man in the state's Land Records department when he questioned whether Mr Vadra had received sweetheart deals.
All Izz Well.
It appears that SFO has higher crime rate than New Delhi.
Hope this computes, but I can guarantee your mother, sister, wife, daughter will be safer in San Francisco than in New Delhi.
50% of India's population is female and they will definitely be safer outside India or out of reach of India's males... :-)
SEBI is a wolf barking like a dog pretending to guard the hen house. Retail investors are ripe for the slaughter...
Investors have been duped of nearly Rs 7,500 crore by companies over the last few years, prompting the government to develop a 'fraud protection model' to detect bogus investment schemes before they dupe the public, Corporate Affairs Minister Sachin Pilot said on Thursday.
The Minister said various methods have been used by unscrupulous companies to cheat investors."
Senators in USA are introducing a bill to force companies to pay 50% more wages to H1 B workers than Americans. This will be a huge increase in salaries for all the H1Bs working for Indian IT companies. Also since the number of H1B visas will double a lot of Indians will now be making in crores per year.
@Anon above
The HIB visa holders pay increase will cause US companies to not hire H1Bs. Or may the H1Bs can market themselves like Indian real estate - buy now, prices to revise from next week!
// The HIB visa holders pay increase will cause US companies to not hire H1Bs.
Not possible. When it comes to IT nobody is as smart and talented as Indians. No wonder most of the H1Bs are given to the Indian IT companies
No wonder most of the H1Bs are given to the Indian IT companies.
That is just because we are 1.2 billion.
To those who claim Indians are rich, have lot of spending power, blah blah blah, here is what companies like Disney, which is building a theme park in China, think about India :
http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/disney-rules-out-theme-park-in-india-blames-poor-infra-113031300237_1.html
"India is still not ready for such a high investment besides the income levels need to reach an inflection point so that the park can sustain guests for the entire year."
I was talking to one of my senior colleague on Friday whose friend is a big shot real-estate investment manager who invests money from NRI investor groups in Noida mostly.
The assessment of this manager is that RE bubble has burst in Noida and big investors like politicians' and officers' money is stuck. He also believes that the softness will continue till after next govt in centre is formed and prices will start rising only after two years.
PS: Just stating the opinion of a professional investor. No comments.
Whenever the Congress party comes into power they crank the printing presses and inflation, prices run out of control. Scams are rife and people suffer. But whenever BJP or alternative coalitions come into power, the real estate market collapses. In 1995 we had a similar phenomenon...The real estate market collapsed almost 80% and prices were soft till about 2003. When Congress/UPA came back to power, we had the familiar games again...rampant money printing, soaring prices, real estate bubble etc. This time around the congress reign has coincided with a world wide bubble in asset prices because governments everywhere have printed money. After 2014, we could see a massive fall in real estate prices...I think with the confluence of everything the euro disasters, the peaking of stock markets, and impending disaster, plus probable demise of UPA, I am optimistic that we will see a massive collapse again.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Glut-of-properties-hits-prices-in-south-Delhi/articleshow/19298851.cms
Indian IT professionals have a huge advantage in the sense that there are no job losses in India compared to constant fear of layoffs in Usa and Europe. Coupled with huge salariers, 10% pay hikes and double incomes IT guys have a lot of disposable income which props up the RE sector. This bubble theory has been going on for several years but yet prices keep rising
Anon above:
Why are you here on this blog. You should buy some more flats before the prices rise even more.
Coupled with huge salariers, 10% pay hikes and double incomes IT guys have a lot of disposable income which props up the RE sector.
I have to ask you a question. In our parents case, were mostly only the father was earning? With single income were they able to build a house mostly of their savings provide education to 2 kids and live a life of little debt
Fast forward to your generation, with "Huge Salariers" like you, how many are confident of achieving the same with single income? Even with double income, how many of them do the same and live debt free life?
Even the Parsis are being asked to throw in the towel and get on with the game...
MUMBAI: Over a century ago, his great-grandmother JerbaiWadia built the first of Parsibaugs for middle-income and weaker sections of her community. On Sunday, industrialist NusliWadia, along with son Ness, stepped into the 105-year-old NowrozBaug in Parel to meet residents and discuss a plan to redevelop the 5.5-acre property.
The 22,000 sq-m land close to ITC hotel in Parel is considered a prime location in central Mumbai. Nowroz Baug comprises about a dozen low rise buildings containing 358 tenements-ranging from 150 sq-ft rooms to over 800 sq-ft flats -and a playground.
Making the redevelopment plan come alive, a flashy power point presentation showed how the old structures would be razed to be replaced by a "new deluxe Parsi colony" with four skyscrapers, each 40-storey high. Architect Contractor, who prepared the plan, requested the residents to approve it because "you will never get an opportunity like this".
Real estate continues to be the most preferred asset class with rich Indians.
A luxury home is the reflection of social status and lifestyle for the rich, which they can flaunt to friends and family. While some park money in buying luxury homes, others are upgrading to get like-minded neighbours.
Luxury homes have caught the market's fancy with nearly $2 billion (over Rs 10,000 crore) worth of such houses launched across the country last year.
According to estimates, close to 5,000 homes priced above Rs 3 crore (above Rs 5 crore in Mumbai) were launched across major metros during the year as absorption beat supply in these markets.
Sales of luxury homes across big cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, Gurgaon, Chennai and Pune have been moving up along with 6-23% year-on-year price rise in this segment, reaffirming the upward movement. Mumbai, for instance, sold 789 units against 652 new launches; Gurgaon sold 792 compared with new launches of 726 units, while Chennai saw sales overtaking new launches by 17%.
In February 2012, the next-gen scion of a Marwari business family, who runs a IT software company, and his wife decided to celebrate their wedding anniversary in style. Not for them the French Riviera or Swiss Alps. Instead they chose one of the luxury resorts in French Polynesia's Bora Bora island.
After spending some Rs 40 lakh for the package, the couple felt they had to do something unique to make it a truly special occasion; so they requested their travel planner for a particular 1989 vintage wine.
Priced at EUR 2,300 (around Rs 1.5 lakh), this bottle was spotted in a vineyard in Vienna and was shipped to Bora Bora through Milan and New York at an additional cost of just another 9,000.
This Bangalore-based couple (who preferred to stay anonymous rather than attract attention from undesired quarters) is just one amongst thousands of well-heeled Indians with a craving for that distinctive experience that only very deep pockets can buy.
There are tens of thousands of such people all over India. Yes, the rupee is being printed on staggering scale and the fresh money is definitely landing in someones pockets. India's rich are wealthy even by 1st world standards and unlike Buffet or Gates, they believe in showing off.
Filthy Indians will go around the world but will not leave their Indianness behind. I mean it is difficult to find a decent Indian in this population of 1.2 billion people (me included)
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/malaysian-pio-alleges-attack-lodges-complaint-with-airport-police/article4567457.ece
I suppose the bubble believers also believe that there are only 42,800 individuals with incomes more than 1 crore per year.
Even Chiddu finds that laughable.
World's best laundry machine. The Indian banking system.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0sKrFjU8ens
"World's best laundry machine. The Indian banking system. "
If this is real, this is shocking. Why are no heads rolling for this? Where is the outrage for such blatantly criminal acts?
Unbelievable.
Full length movie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Zgic7Gk0qoE
RBI on the banking scandal at HDFC, Axis, ICICI:
"All Izz Well"
The Reserve Bank on Thursday sought to downplay the money-laundering allegations against three private sector banks, saying the country has a "perfect" system to prevent such offences and that not a single such transaction took place in the sting operation.
If I meet an Indian, I have to assume he is a criminal until proven otherwise.
Sadly this is the case for lot of family and friends.
We're a nation of scam artists (almost every Indian I know of has committed insurance fraud), bribe givers and takers and petty criminals.
Honor and dignity may be something we encounter only in our history books...
@Anon at 2:46 PM
I suppose the bubble believers also believe that there are only 42,800 individuals with incomes more than 1 crore per year.
Even Chiddu finds that laughable.
Surprisingly, this number of 42800 gives good clues as opposed to what you or what others may think.
In the US, only about 4.5 million people which represent 3% of taxpayers. With that estimate, do you think even 0.5 million people in India make that kind of money ? US GDP is 10 times that of India so the number should be no more than 0.45 million or 4.5 lakh. And this is roughly 10 times the 42800 number and can not be stretched anymore. I would put the actual number at 2 lakh based on my business experience.
In continuation of previous post, here is more data. In the United Kingdom, only 545000 people earn over 100k GBP per year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-11382591
And this is UK my friend with GDP 70% more than India. The most elite rich live in London, so many stories heard of people spending over 40k GBP in a single night in a dance bar. Heard any such story in Delhi or Mumbai ?
Now tell me how can I believe number of people earning in India over 200 USD can be more than 2 lakh ?
^^^
You are forgetting to take into account the ill gotten wealth/riches of at least part of the 2-3 crore Central, State and PSU employees.
Now, I am in no way implying that the ENTIRE category is corrupt but based on recent seizures (peons have been fond with crores stashed away, senior officers with 100s of crores), there has to be a number big enough to matter.
A flat worth 2 crore today in NCR would be worth 60 lacs in the next year or two. And we'll never these prices in the near future. 2 crore is the price of that flat for year 2030. Just crash and stagnant markets.
RUpee also going down to 70/USD in the next year or so. India economics is really fucked up at this point. Major layoffs coming. Save your arse and jobs, don't worry about RE. Elections in November this year.
>A flat worth 2 crore today in NCR would be worth 60 lacs in the next year or two
Maybe.
But anyone owning a 1cr apartment and getting 10-15k in rent is definitely sitting on a timebomb.
I know of housing board houses in Dwarka (NCR) having terrible construction quality that are valued at 1cr+. Expected Rent - 12K + maintenance !
nice post... keep updating..property in Nagpur
If a flat worth 1.2 crore is going to be worth 60 lakhs in the next 2 years i will go ahead and buy it.
END OF STORY and goodbye to this blog after my purchase :)
I would certainly donate some money to this blog if that option is available as a 'thank you'
So dont forget to open a donation box once the crash happens
If a flat worth 1.2 crore is going to be worth 60 lakhs in the next 2 years i will go ahead and buy it.
That is precisely why it won't happen.
"That is precisely why it WILL happen"
1/2 the property price is the right price. anything above that will fail to generate interest and people will want it to crash further.
"That is precisely why it WILL happen"
Right, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. All buyers and hoarders will become sellers. Ifyou drive night time in Dwarka or Gurgaon, 50% of the flats are empty. All investors will dump their flats into the market and put a strong downward pressure on prices.
Secondly, banks will become very strict in loans. One has to understand most buyers nowdays are those who are selling their RE in one place and buying in another, basically selling high and then trying to park the money back into high RE. Very few new buyers as prices are so high, even a loan of 50 lacs would have very high EMI.
I'm waiting and watching and would get something once there are very less buyers and I've a lot of flats to choose from at my price. Otherwise renting makes perfect financial sense to me, 1/4th the price of EMI.
Those who want to buy, go ahead and buy more if you want to catch a falling knife.
So dont forget to open a donation box once the crash happens
Please start donating some money for 10 years of grand celebration of failed predictions :D
Anon above:
You have to understand the situation this way about failed predictions:
Say you see a patient taking steroids. The patient will start feeling good and healthy. Suddenly the family feels the person is cured and the doctors give more steroids. The person starts jumping around and everyone is happy again. This goes on for say 10 years and the person collapses.
Moral: Steroids unlike the injections given by RBI and massive borrowings, printing, low interest rates etc. all act like steroids. Now the patient has to come a point, no steroid can help as the underlying problem was never cured.
Massive RE bust is in cards for India in the coming time.
Ok Ok so many of the bulls have been arguing on the lack of investment alternatives available in India other than RE or Gold. And I keep forgetting this, but I wonder why there wasn't any mention of bitcoin by anyone ever :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/04/investing/bitcoin-atms/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/04/bitcoin_value_soar/
And here is a beautiful presentation about bitcoin by its founder :
http://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-what-is-bitcoin-2013-3/computers-mine-for-it-by-cracking-a-predetermined-encrypted-program-this-is-a-quite-difficult-task-which-is-what-gives-bitcoin-its-inherent-value-12
** Note for the Bears Too **
If you think you would be able to encash an opportunity in the falling market, there is no guarantee that your money in bank accounts is safe too and Cyprus like capital controls won't be imposed in India. Beware and diversify !
"If you think you would be able to encash an opportunity in the falling market, there is no guarantee that your money in bank accounts is safe too and Cyprus like capital controls won't be imposed in India. Beware and diversify !"
100% of Cyprus' bank accounts below the insured limit of 100,000 Euros were protected. If you were stupid enough to leave uninsured funds in an environment like Cyprus which is in a known bank-stress jurisdiction (Eurozone), that is your fault and your fault alone.
That said, if any Indian bank fails, RBI and GOI will rush to its aid with the printing presses.
Sorry the correct link of first slide of the presentation is :
http://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-what-is-bitcoin-2013-3#lets-begin--1
@Anonymous at 10:29 AM
That said, if any Indian bank fails, RBI and GOI will rush to its aid with the printing presses.
Looks like you have paltry sums in your bank deposits and that is why you dismiss it so casually. For anyone who has much larger sums stored in the banks and aware of massive RE bubble would be more serious and worried. There is no guarantee that govt is going to bail out each and every depositor.
"There is no guarantee that govt is going to bail out each and every depositor."
The Indian Government has an unlimited ability to print Rupees and is not restrained in any way in the number of Rupees it can print. The GOI and RBI will do whatever it takes to end a run on the banks.
The reason that Cyprus couldn't bail out the banks is because the Cypriot government is not the monopoly-issuer of the currency in which Cyprus' debts were denominated in: Euros.
The Indian government on the hand has an unlimited ability (restrained only by concerns about inflation, which as you well know, is not something that GOI gives a toss about anyway) to print Rupees and to dispense with any monetary obligation dispensed in Rupees.
Don't get me wrong, cash (like RE) is unsafe for a variety of reasons but not for the reasons you describe.
The reason that Cyprus couldn't bail out the banks is because the Cypriot government is not the monopoly-issuer of the currency in which Cyprus' debts were denominated in: Euros.
My friend looks like you have never thought into these issues deeper anytime nor have you cared to think. Just sample this. EU Central bank gave Cyprus 10 billion Euros and forced it to raise 6 billion Euros on its own, by taxing the depositors. The European Central Bank has unlimited ability to print Euros so why was it restrained to give an additional sum of 7 billion Euros to Cyprus instead of taxing depositors ? There can be a number of reasons for this action including political, economical, social,...Now list down the reasons and tell me why it can't be true in Indian scenario ?
The Indian government on the hand has an unlimited ability (restrained only by concerns about inflation,
US Fed also had the same power but it chose not to bail out Lehman ! Things are not so simple as you think. A number of things can come into play when deciding te conditions of bailout, but its certainly not always as simple as you think and the reasons you give.
The GOI and RBI will do whatever it takes to end a run on the banks
Yes it's the most likely scenario but it's not a gospel. Lately I've started questioning if this so called bank guarantee is as sacred as it's made out to be.
Here is actual evidence of bubble burst that can not to be ignored. Look at this property ad in my area :
http://property.sulekha.com/3-bhk-in-anekant-apartments-for-sale_9608424
This property advertised at 1.10 cr has been in the market for more than 6 months and has now been put for foreclosure by the bank. The bank needs around 90 lakh in white money to close the deal. There is another property coming up for foreclosure in the next week according to the same broker. And still there is no 3 bhk quoting at less than 1.3 cr in the same area.
Ah and here is an official tender for foreclosure by the bank for those who don't trust me :
http://tenders.indiamart.com/details/706747195/
Now apartments are tickets to heaven.. Only builders in India provide this value added service
http://www.firstpost.com/india/thane-building-collapse-death-toll-at-44-2-officials-suspended-688310.html
^^^ India mein to sab kuch Ram bharose hota hai, especially if it has to do with Real Estate.
At least when you buy from a big name builder, they have a reputation and assets to protect. If you deal with local nobodies be aware that they always have a fly-by-night contingency plan for good reason...
To be fair, even US cannot escape sub-standard construction:
http://www.sfexaminer.com/local/development/2013/03/bay-bridge-bolt-problem-arose-quality-control-lapses-officials-say
Anon above:
The SF bridge was built by Chinese contractors.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/high-demand-for-skilled-worker-visas-triggers-lottery.html
I am assuming that as usual there are a lot of Indians among those. But that's not interesting, what's interesting are the comments, read the comments to get the local POV on VISA issues.
^^ Anon above, not to digress but perhaps you should look before you leap to conclusions.
While Caltrans officials rigorously tested some of the steel rods, not all of the pieces were tested for quality because that isn’t the industry practice, Anziano said. Caltrans conducted the tests alongside representatives from Dyson, the Ohio-based manufacturer that provided the rods. Calls to Dyson were not returned Wednesday.
Perhaps they should've sourced these parts from China after all...
read the comments to get the local POV on VISA issues.
No red flags yet. Very few American sheeple have woken up from their slumber and recognized their beloved corporate brands for what they truly represent. But there have always been a handful of rebels. Considering the hold of the mega corporations I doubt if any of this will ever gain mainstream traction. Perhaps if IT unemployment crosses 20%
It's a rare company that truly values their employees (and you certainly won't find it on Forbes 100 best to work for...) In fact, when a corporation hypes a claim about valuing employees or customers it's safe to assume the exact opposite is true.
e.g.
Goldman selling piles of dogshit to their clients and claiming to work in their customers best interest.
Google's "Don't be evil" I LOL'd when that gem was announced.
Apple and it's famous plant worker suicides. Wait, our beloved Apple runs Chinese sweatshops and cheats on taxes at home. :sob:
No red flags yet. Very few American sheeple have woken up from their slumber and recognized their beloved corporate brands for what they truly represent
I wouldn't worry about American people rising up against their corporations as much as I'd worry about increasingly random attacks on immigrants. It's insurgency 101.
Moreover if they can do it there how long before they do it here with African workers. Looks to me like a locust swarm, moving from one place to another.
American banks have once again begun producing mortgage-based bonds in substantial numbers. Meanwhile, institutional investors have been buying up low-cost houses in order to rent them while speculating on the value. As a result, the housing market may be going into another bubble. Are we headed for another financial crisis? Moreover, is history destined to repeat itself, given human nature? If interested, see the following article: http://thewordenreport.blogspot.com/2013/04/return-of-mortgage-based-bonds-another.html
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