Thursday, September 12, 2013

RBI move for construction progress based loans | Mainstream media hoping for correction?

Reserve Bank of India Letter 

RBI/2013-14/217
DBOD.BP.BC.No. 51/08.12.015/2013-14


September 3, 2013
All Scheduled Commercial Banks
(excluding RRBs)
Dear Sir,
Housing Sector: Innovative Housing Loan Products – Upfront disbursal of housing loans
It has been observed that some banks have introduced certain innovative Housing Loan Schemes in association with developers/builders, e.g. upfront disbursal of sanctioned individual housing loans to the builders without linking the disbursals to various stages of construction of housing project, interest/EMI on the housing loan availed of by the individual borrower being serviced by the builders during the construction period/specified period, etc. This might include signing of tripartite agreements between the bank, the builder and the buyer of the housing unit. These loan products are popularly known by various names like 80:20, 75:25 Schemes.
2. Such housing loan products are likely to expose the banks as well as their home loan borrowers to additional risks e.g. in case of disputes between individual borrowers and developers/builders, default/delayed payment of interest/EMI by the developer/builder during the agreed period on behalf of the borrower, non-completion of the project on time, etc. Further, any delayed payments by developers/builders on behalf of individual borrowers to banks may lead to lower credit rating/scoring of such borrowers by credit information companies (CICs) as information about servicing of loans gets passed on to the CICs on a regular basis. In cases where bank loans are also disbursed upfront on behalf of their individual borrowers in a lump-sum to builders/developers without any linkage to stages of construction, banks run disproportionately higher exposures with concomitant risks of diversion of funds.
3. In view of the higher risks associated with such lump-sum disbursal of sanctioned housing loans and customer suitability issues, banks are advised that disbursal of housing loans sanctioned to individuals should be closely linked to the stages of construction of the housing project/houses and upfront disbursal should not be made in cases of incomplete/under-construction/green field housing projects.
4. It is emphasized that banks while introducing any kind of product should take into account the customer suitability and appropriateness issues and also ensure that the borrowers/customers are made fully aware of the risks and liabilities under such products.


Yours faithfully
(Rajesh Verma)
Chief General Manager


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Banks have been advised not to give loans upfront for financing under-construction projects


Copyright @ The Hindu (business line)

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image copyrights with Bennett & Coleman + times of india group internet limited + economic times etc






293 comments:

1 – 200 of 293   Newer›   Newest»
skeptic optimist said...

Last comment from previous post - suicide in blore.

Anonymous said...

I started seeing negative opinion on real estate investment news everywhere.

All most all the newspapers giving information about unsold units.

It will take some time for common man to accept the reality.

I met one of my friend when I visited India. he wants to buy an apartment and asking me if it is a good investment.

I asked him where do you see the prices of apartments in next 10 years?

"It will be like Mumbai.Prices are going up always"

"So you see mumbai like business growth in our city?"
"And you see thousands of high paying jobs coming to our city"

"No.But everybody say prices will go up"

He is working as a salesman and have visited two countries for training purpose

Economy and investing are not taught in schools and large groups of people are designed to feel educated and make decision based on neighbors advice or what people discuss in streets
I dint say whether to buy or not.Instead I asked him to spend some time to educate himself for making this big decesion




Anonymous said...

No matter what, everyone should realize that this crisis is manufactured.

Investigative reporters in Europe (Spain) recently found that 94% of bailout money went directly to boost financial sector and indirectly to boost CEO and CXO salaries and bonuses.

In India, which has fragmented but strong opposition to foreign investments, manufactured crisis will be used to provide cover when government loosens the laws in favor of mega corporations.

In US, the government jumped to military strikes against Syria. All the hocus pocus about chemical weapons aside (as if the average US bomb or missile is filled with perfume instead of chemicals that kill equally indiscriminately!), reality is that US defense contractors are looking at losing billions as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars end. Either a war with Syria or militarizing the border with Mexico will ensure their continued profits.

Common man being fooled everywhere and left hanging high n dry all over the world.

Anonymous said...

Watch and learn how the best of the best are prevented from making their much needed contributions to India:

http://www.newslaundry.com/2013/09/nl-interviews-dr-ashok-khemka-part-1/

If Khemka was allowed to do his duty, he alone could've collapsed the RE prices in Gurgaon belt.

Any wonder then that we've deteriorated to a point where there is no hope for common man.

Abhi kaun karega in RE companies ke dealings ka khulasa...

aam aadmi said...

@REBear

On your question why rupee depreciation from 1947 has not affected our purchasing power....that's because our purchasing power has also gone up proportionately, maybe more. Overall all currencies have depreciated significantly from their 1950 levels.

It's only when depreciation is not backed up by growth that inflation and slowdown occurs, like 1997 East Asian crisis and 1980's in South America.

We are likely to face a lighter version of that, not because of our genius but because of our sheer size and diversity.

Anonymous said...

Assotech - We make asses out of you.

Assotech Business Cresterra Noida - Dont Buy. Beware

Anonymous said...

//We are likely to face a lighter version of that, not because of our genius but because of our sheer size and diversity.//

After a few months, the next comment from bears in the blog would be "We are different" :-)

Anonymous said...

Sorry people. Prices are not and will not correct meaningfully. A decline in prices from 3 Crores to 2 Crores is not a meaningful change for most people. 2 Crores is as unaffordable as 1 Crore.

Dudes, open your eyes and see what is staring at you in the face: Rupee is the BEST performing currency this month. Globally! Stocks are on a TEAR. In fact, Stocks are higher than where they were at the start of this phony "crisis". Car sales are booming.

It is only a matter of time before housing comes back strongly again and starts its next strong bull trend higher with a vengeance. Within 6 months you will see higher prices across all sectors nationally for RE.

Anonymous said...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/09/india-housing-bubble-bursts-panic.html

Anonymous said...

Rupee is appreciating. Campus recruitmetns are gaining steam and salaries are on way up. Sorry there is no correction. RE prices have only one way to go and that is up

Anonymous said...

Bears on this blog : wake up wake up from your dreams and see the reality ;-)

Anonymous said...

I have a legal question: Now that the government has made it mandatory for builders to only quote carpet area, can we take realty sites like "99acres" or "magicbricks" to court for using terms like built up or super-built up area?

Under what section of the IPC will this apply?

Anonymous said...

I have a economic question what is connection between inflation and interest rate ? and which interest rate of what ? Since when was inflation and interest rate connected was it connected till 70s when currencies where pegged against gold ? What is inflation ? Which inflation should be taken into account WPI or CPI and why ? Since when was either or this connected ? If WPI is taken into accounts that is CPI for playing games ? How valid scientific and reliable are these indices on ground level ? According to Great Economist of Oxus ( the one with french beard I dont get his name ) He says inflation is 2-3% from where does he get his foodgrains vegetables cereals (and I am not talking abt Kiwi fruit ) does he eat raw foodgrains and cereals from fields like the birds and like all indians who dont live in houses but on streets or perhaps in the air ?

How relevant is growth and poverty I believe has fallen by the 50s to 70s yardstick. Then how come we need food security for people who are not poor ? And if they need then why is 50s to 70s yardstick needed in the age of ipads ? Why is media not giving full information and right information of riots of Muzaffarnagar ?

Anonymous said...

How come we never talk about Transparency index, Human rights record Environmental degradation and most importand HDI since last 30 years ? Why is inflation taken since a year not 2years 3 or 5 and even from time the central and state governments and even district level come into rule ?

REBear said...

upee is appreciating. Campus recruitmetns are gaining steam and salaries are on way up. Sorry there is no correction. RE prices have only one way to go and that is up

Good contrarian view, best of luck. BTW, rupee appreciated from 57.30 to 51 around two years back only to scale back to new low of 69/-. This time will be no different - inflation has started gaining momentum and high domestic inflation is the number one reason for high CAD in this country. When inflation is high, companies import from cheaper countries rather than manufacture domestically. So wait for the next round of rupee depreciation to 80/-, and if US economy sees hiccups in the mean while, God knows ! RBI would be happily buying dollars at this price to boost reserves.

Anonymous said...

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pf/want-to-buy-a-house-keep-it-on-hold-if-you-are-not-desperate-113091500693_1.html

If this continues, such actions could become self-fulfilling. People wait for prices to fall. When prices fall, people wait some more. This will go on till fair valuation is reached. The hard-part is figuring out when :)

Pawan said...

This will go on till fair valuation is reached

Says who? We may see prices much below fair value as well. After all sentiments are a key driver of RE. Though most of us would jump in much earlier.

Mangoman said...

INflation is going up.

WPI is expected to touch 9% in few months from now.

Campus interviews picking up is a gimmick and fraud story. Just look around.


All second rung cities real estate transactions crashed.

first rung cities transactions are lacklustre.

Now we are waiting for the first set of panic sellers.

the country and rbi which are reluctant to raise rates even when the food inflation at 18% is doomed to fail.

When a country decides brokers are important and not people, then the country to going to donks.


god save us.

Mangoman said...

India is a brokocracy where the country is for the brokers by the brokers of the brokers.

Anonymous said...

Can you believe this so called Investors are withdrawing from India becoz US QE tapering !!! Huh huh they were not here in the first place becoz of India's fundamentals !!

And Indian GDP is declining becoz of recession in Eurozone and US !! When India's GDP was doing well it was becoz of India's fundamentals and governance HUH huh !!

When growth rate was declining over two quarters it was temporary slowdown when it went further it was bottoming out ? This was not due to decline in domestic demand due to high inflation !! Now various ministry officials and ministers speak in different voices some state there is a problem. Since last year people were saying reforms will start growth next quarter. How come FDI brings h immediate growth. Wonder why Spain and Greece did not work for FDI.

We keep harping for years together of huge import bill for fuel. Have the so called nation of so many engineers and scientists more working in US Uk Australia worked on any solution to this.

Anonymous said...

INR has strongly recovered. Stocks are on a tear and approaching record highs. Asset markets worldwide has stabilized. Janet Yellen will be the next Fed Chair (she makes Bernanke look like a paragon of fiscal moderation). US interest rates will continue to be zero or negative (real). Money will continue to flow into emerging markets.

There is no crisis. No correction. No crisis.

But now or forever be left out!

Anonymous said...

इन्वेस्टर्स के डिफॉल्ट करने से और सस्ते होंगे फ्लैट्स
1
property
और सस्ते फ्लैट
ईटी | Sep 17, 2013, 10.00AM IST
रवि तेजा शर्मा नई दिल्ली।। शॉर्ट टर्म इनवेस्टर्स बिल्डरों को पैसा नहीं दे पा रहे हैं। इससे डेवलपर्स की मुसीबत बढ़ गई है। इस तरह के इनवेस्टर्स अक्सर कई प्रॉपर्टी खरीदते हैं और 6-8 महीने में उन्हें फायदे पर बेच देते हैं।

अब बड़ी संख्या में ये लोग बिल्डर्स से रिफंड की मांग कर रहे हैं। कुछ मामलों में तो वे कोर्ट भी गए हैं। यह जानकारी कुछ रियल एस्टेट कंसल्टेंट्स ने दी है। नैशनल रियल एस्टेट डेवलपर्स काउंसिल के प्रेसिडेंट नवीन रहेजा ने बताया, 'हाल के महीनों में शॉर्ट टर्म इनवेस्टर्स की ओर से डिफॉल्ट के मामले बढ़े हैं।'

पिछले कुछ क्वार्टर्स में देश के रियल एस्टेट मार्केट में सुस्ती बढ़ी है। हाउसिंग सेगमेंट पर इसका कुछ ज्यादा ही असर हुआ है। बिल्डर इन दिनों सेल्स बढ़ाने के लिए बंपर डिस्काउंट दे रहे हैं। रीसेल मार्केट में भी होम बायर्स इंतजार करने के लिए तैयार हैं। इससे बिल्डरों के पास अनबिके घरों की संख्या तो बढ़ ही रही है। दाम भी कम हो रहे हैं। इसके साथ उन लोगों की संख्या भी कम हो गई है, जिन्हें शॉर्ट टर्म बायर्स टारगेट करते हैं।

[ जारी है ]
प्रॉपर्टी ब्रोकिंग फर्म इंडियाहोम्स के मैनेजिंग डायरेक्टर समरजीत सिंह ने बताया, 'जब इनवेस्टर्स से पैसा नहीं मिलता है, तब बिल्डर का कैश फ्लो काफी कम हो जाता है। बुकिंग का कैंसल होना तो बिल्डर के लिए सबसे खराब बात होती है।' प्रॉपर्टी कंसल्टेंट्स का कहना है कि द्वारका-मानेसर एक्सप्रेसवे पर शॉर्ट टर्म इनवेस्टर्स ने 50-60 फीसदी नए अपार्टमेंट्स खरीदे थे। नोएडा-ग्रेटर नोएडा एक्सप्रेसवे पर करीब 33 फीसदी नए घरों की बुकिंग भी उन्होंने करवाई थी।

जहां कुछ इनवेस्टर्स इकनॉमिक स्लोडाउन से पहले ही इनवेस्टमेंट से निकल गए थे, वहीं इनमें फंसने वाले लोगों की संख्या काफी बड़ी है। जिन लोगों ने कर्ज लेकर पिछले एक साल में घर खरीदे हैं, उनमें से कई आज घाटे में भी घर बेचने को तैयार हैं। कुछ तो 30 फीसदी तक डिस्काउंट दे रहे हैं।

जोंस लैंग लसाल इंडिया के सीईओ (ऑपरेशंस) संतोष कुमार ने बताया, 'शॉर्ट टर्म इनवेस्टर्स को बिल्डरों को शुरुआती फंड मिलता था। कई बिल्डर उन्हें कम दाम पर घर बेचते थे। अक्सर उन्हें अप्रूवल से पहले ही प्रोजेक्ट बेचे जाते थे।' शॉर्ट टर्म इनवेस्टर्स के डिफॉल्ट करने से बिल्डरों की हालत और खराब होगी, जो पहले ही इनवेंटरी बढ़ने से मुश्किल में हैं। इससे आगे चलकर प्रॉपर्टी की कीमत और कम हो सकती है।
http://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/business/property/property-news/cheap-flats-season-back-in-real-estate-as-investors-default/businessarticleshow/22635302.cms

Anonymous said...

आईटी प्रोफेशनल्स ने एक्सट्रा अपार्टमेंट्स से की तौबा
ईटी हिंदी | Sep 5, 2013, 11.51AM IST
तस्मै लाहा रॉय
बेंगलुरु।। बेंगलुरु के हाउसिंग मार्केट के पांव तले की जमीन खिसक रही है। आईटी सेक्टर में काम करने वालों ने हड़बड़ी में महंगे घर बेचने शुरू कर दिए हैं। इससे शहर में रीसेल प्रॉपर्टी की सप्लाई बढ़ गई है। इकनॉमिक स्लोडाउन, इनफ्लेशन, खराब सैलरी इंक्रीमेंट्स के चलते बेंगलुरू में टेक्नॉलजी सेक्टर में काम करने वाले लोग घर बेच रहे हैं।

कई यंग आईटी प्रोफेशनल्स ने अपार्टमेंट्स, रो हाउस और बंगलों में तब पैसा लगाया था, जब इंडिया की सिलिकन वैली में आईटी सेक्टर की नींव रखी जा रही थी। 2009 में भी लोगों ने प्रॉपर्टी खरीदने में जमकर पैसा लगाया। हालांकि, अब आईटी प्रोफेशनल्स के लिए महंगा होम लोन चुकाना और अपार्टमेंट्स को मेंटेन करना तक भारी पड़ रहा है। इनमें से कुछ लोगों के पास दो या तीन घर हैं, जिन्हें उन्होंने किराए पर उठा रखा था। हालांकि, रेंटल यील्ड कम होने से इनके लिए इन घरों को मेंटेन करना मुश्किल हो रहा है।

कुशमैन एंड वेकफील्ड की असोसिएट डायरेक्टर (रेजिडेंशल सर्विसेज) कल्पना मूर्ति के मुताबिक, 'इन प्रॉपर्टी पर भारी प्रीमियम मिल रहा है, जो एक करोड़ रुपए या उससे भी ज्यादा दाम की हैं।' प्रॉपर्टी पोर्टल CommonFloor.com के मुताबिक, पिछले 6 महीने में रीसेल इनवेंटरी 30 से 35 फीसदी बढ़ी है। आज हर 10 में से 6 घर आईटी फर्मों में काम करने वाले एग्जिक्यूटिव्स के हैं, जबकि 2 साल पहले यह आंकड़ा 10 में से 4 था। बेंगलुरू में 2001 से अब तक 3,50,000 नए अपार्टमेंट्स भी बने हैं। इसमें से करीब 8 फीसदी या करीब 30,000 अपार्टमेंट्स रीसेल मार्केट में सेल के लिए आ गए हैं। इस दौरान करीब 45,000 नए विला और पेंटहाउस बने हैं। इनका भी करीब 8 फीसदी हिस्सा रीसेल मार्केट में आ गया है।
[ जारी है ]

कुछ साल पहले तक आईटी प्रोफेशनल्स प्रॉपर्टी में पैसा लगा रहे थे। इनकी मोटी तनख्वाह वाली नौकरी इन्हें दूसरा या तीसरा घर खरीदने का मौका दे रही थी। तब घरों की कीमत कम थी। ज्यादा रिटर्न मिलने का चांस भी था।

इंफोसिस के फॉर्मर सीईओ और एचआर हेड मोहनदास पाई के मुताबिक, 'रियल एस्टेट मार्केट में बूम टेक्नॉलजी प्रोफेशनल्स के लिए बड़ा फायदा था, लेकिन अब उनकी सैलरी उतनी नहीं बढ़ रही है। इन लोगों की सैलरी का बड़ा हिस्सा इनफ्लेशन की भेंट चढ़ रहा है। इनके लिए भारी ईएमआई का बोझ सहना मुश्किल हो रहा है।' पाई अब मणिपाल ग्लोबल एजुकेशन के चेयरमैन हैं। वह कहते हैं, 'अब आईटी प्रोफेशनल्स अपने पास मौजूद अतिरिक्त प्रॉपर्टी से निजात पाना चाहते हैं।'

Anonymous said...

Mish says India's reality is in for a crash

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.in/2013/09/india-housing-bubble-bursts-panic.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)&utm_content=Yahoo!+Mail

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Indian RE bears are out of hibernation. Happens once every 5 or so years.

Let's see how long they continue to growl this time but more importantly if they can actually make any killing...

Anonymous said...

for people cribbing here about Indian RE.. stop cribbing and do something.. if you cannot just get on with life..

Anonymous said...

Russians wants their share of Global IT spending

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/software/ex-soviet-programmers-take-on-indian-firms-like-tcs-in-48-billion-global-outsourcing-market/articleshow/22670919.cms

Anonymous said...

Russians,Romanians are smart, really smart unlike indians who are at best good at resuing existing code and modifying them according to client needs.

Also indians are lazy per se. They need a break every 2 hours.

Im all in for russians taking our jobs. The world can be a better place rather than indians getting paid and making the world just like them lol

Though indians and russians are crooks none the less. Russians a little ahead i guess. Ready to do anything for money.

Its only english that has kept india in the run else india would have been almost last in any race related to IT

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Indian RE bears are out of hibernation. Happens once every 5 or so years.

Only true in the past decade. In the next decade you will be hibernating and would be seen once ever 5 or so years !

Anonymous said...

No fed tapering, printing presses will run 24X7

INR will go down to 60 vs USD

http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/18/news/economy/federal-reserve-taper/index.html


Anonymous said...

Only true in the past decade. In the next decade you will be hibernating and would be seen once ever 5 or so years !

Spoke too soon again. US Fed has not tapered. More free money entering into the global economy.

Common man getting screwed everywhere.

aam aadmi said...

No Fed tapering

Would be nice to see how long this charade continues, seems like US can't afford 10 yr yields crossing 3%

I will still stick to my prediction that there will be no improvement in Indian economy despite rupee recovering mildly, we are in a long term decline, effects of inflation are only just beginning to percolate through. Massaging of inflation numbers doesn't help either.

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REBear said...

Spoke too soon again. US Fed has not tapered. More free money entering into the global economy.

Nope, I said this irrespective of US Fed decision prediction. From my previous posts, I never believed US Fed will actually taper, intact as Marc Faber said a month back that eventually US Fed will have to INCREASE QE amount in order to stop bond yields from surging. The eventual outcome would be Fed will have to stop QE one way or the other - if they don't investors will start demanding more yields to hold the currency. And QE so far hasn't caused wage inflation !

Indian RE, atleast Delhi Real Estate, is in downtrend even during the QE. If you are concerned about the risk of too much QE causing inflation, there is only one answer - DIVERSIFY. I personally bought Gold 3 days back, and since this is for diversification I don't care to look at Gold prices day to day.

Anonymous said...

This is what I posted in the previous thread almost 3 weeks ago in a post titled: "8:57 AM":

"I'm afraid there's a lot of optimism (or pessimism - depending on your perspective) on this board.

I will tell you exactly how events will play out over the next month. The Bernank will soon (perhaps as early as next week) come out and say whatever he says when the markets are tanking. He will say......that he will print more money (what else did you expect, this is the Bernank, this is all he knows how to do) - or rather in this case, there he will not stop printing money, i.e. no tapering or very limited tapering (say 80 billion instead of 85 billion, as though that makes a BIG difference). Once the announcement is made, the markets will stop falling and the hot money will flee once again back into emerging markets in desperate search of yield (i.e. exactly the same play book that has transpired over the past 4 years). Bonds will go up in the emerging markets, yields will compress and asset prices will stabilize.

I will go out and make a bold prediction here: INR will be at 60 or less before the end of October. As for RE, any dent on nominal prices will not be anything more than just that: nominal, percentage declines in the low single-digits.

Sorry to be the one to switch on the lights, stop the music and tell everyone to go home. The party is over.

Yes, it was fun while it lasted."

Bingo. Hate to say I told you so, but pretty much everything I wrote in that post has come true. I was dead right on QE, the Rupee and EM. I wrote that the INR would recover strongly at a time everyone here was predicting that INR would go to 70 or even 100. I will write more on upcoming events and provide more predictions in the coming days.

Sirius.

REBear said...

I wrote that the INR would recover strongly at a time everyone here was predicting that INR would go to 70 or even 100. I will write more on upcoming events and provide more predictions in the coming days.


I do not and never disagreed with QE stopping or tapering, but the fact that INR will cross 80 or 100 still remains - whether now or in 2 years doesn't matter. You need to ask people who hold rupees and what they do with rupee if it appreciates only to know the future. If rupee pull backs to 60/- exporters will start to under invoice exports and imports will increase, and our dear RBI will be buying aggressively. And this is how it works.

My personal example, I got a dollar payment in July and asked the bank to return it back to originator only to get it back in Sept. And bingo the delta I got in Sept for the same amount is significant.

How others do it, look here.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-07-29/news/40872472_1_trade-deficit-goods-enforcement-directorate

Overall the only thing you need to track in Indian economy is ONE thing - INFLOWS ! India needs high inflows for stable currency, and at the same time high CAD and high fiscal deficit for growth. It needs growth for sure ! This alone tells how unstable is the future of Indian economy as well as rupee. I see this period of appreciating rupee as a window of opportunity to diversify. If you hold only INR, buy some Gold, or send some money to an overseas bank account legally using LRS.

skeptic's ghost said...

The High CAD needed for growth is OK only if it actually applies to growth - Instead the government is subsidizing unproductive work like NREGS (which removed massive work force from production/industry/agri) into digging ditches for mafia politicians. (other unproductive subsidies include free laptops/mobiles for poor, FSB for grains,stimulus to cronies)

Secondly the high CAD is run to sustain Diesel/petrol/gas/fertilizer subsidies which dont always contribute to economy.

Thirdly high CAD is due to Gold import and import of electronics from China/Korea with whom India local manufacturing can't compete.
India cant even compete with Bangladesh,Vietnam, Cambodia and Pakistan for garment export. It cant beat Japan/Korea in automobile and cant beat South East Asia in IT supporting industry like CPUs, Power supply etc.

The only real inflow of $s is from expats (exported human resources) and IT (exported services) and maybe diamonds from Surat etc which now is being hit by competition from Russia,china, Israel, Eastern Europe, philippines etc.

Tomorrow - African countries will learn English and start stealing cheap IT outsourcing. I have already seen Ghana and Ivory coast are running US based call centers cheaper than Philippines

If india can't compete, it cant sustain any growth - the only real way out is to have a robust domestic consumption for goods flow along with sound exports as backup for cash flow.

Without industry there wont be jobs
without jobs no cities and no need for expensive real estate.

As much as Manmohan Singh and UPA is to blame - equal blame lies with the Indian mentality to be satisfies with mediocrity.

Pawan said...

http://www.firstpost.com/investing/live-markets-fall-as-rbi-hikes-policy-repo-rates-by-25-basis-points-1119263.html

Anonymous said...

@ Skeptic's Ghost

Sir, you are a 100% correct in every point you have made.

I am not sure why the Government is deliberately choosing to ignore this stark reality.

I can only add that no one talks about increasing exports to balance CAD because we are priced out.

From a cheap manufacturing/service country (our only real advantage), we have almost overnight (6-7 years)become an expensive place to do business. Thanks to ever increasing wages, salaries (to keep up with inflation) and land cost.

Let me say it like this, at 100 Rs a dozen, this bunch of bananas was acceptable to the world. Now at 250 Rs a dozen, no body wants to buy the same bunch.
Now some one may still be willing to loan us money though(NRIs and FIIs etc.) because of the high return offered. But look how fickle that source is.

If the long term plan is to sustain on borrowed money, I would be very very scared about the future.

Anonymous said...

The bottom line is IT boomed because we provided cheap services.

Now that salaries have increased no one will be interested in IT services in the future.

As someone pointed out Africa or some other countries may provide the same at a low price.

For call center or IT services no one cares about quality. All they care about is who is the most cheapest out there.

Once growth in IT has stalled, there is no way india or salaries can move forward and that is when things will begin to get worse.

It has already started. Watch what happens over the next 2 years.

Every cycle has to end. Thats natures law. No one is different in this world. Rules apply to everyone.

Kottayam Kid said...

If IT services exports are falling,CAD is going to get a lot worse.India will be set back by 10-15 years in all aspects,not to speak about real estate.

REBear said...

@Skeptic Gost, Anonymous at 12:13 AM

I can only add that no one talks about increasing exports to balance CAD because we are priced out.

And this is the ONE and ONLY root cause of high CAD contrary to what many people believe and find it easy to shift the blame on Govt. You need to feel this first hand to understand it. People like research analysts, commentators, bloggers, even policy makers don't get a grasp of it simply because they are not connected deeply with the ecosystem.

India is a low cost country with millions of engineering grads, but I am still in search of competent engineers who can apply some mind before coding, or designers who can create a great design for an app. Not that there aren't good engineers in the country, but a handful of them who are mostly employed by Google or Facebook. Outsourced Android development on a part time basis to someone I found capable enough, and guess what, lost the advance I paid and the work was never delivered - his manager ensured that he doesn't get enough time to do anything else. And Indian designers, uff, they are horrible and never want to learn anything, no matter how much you pay them. Finally had to find designers in Europe, costly but very good quality. Now doing the same for app developers - finding people in Poland, Ukraine, and Russia. And these people are only twice as costly than India but you get the quality. Somebody also posted a link about Russians overtaking Indians in software.

Another example of my friend who runs a company from an incubator and he got an electronic component- one by Indian company and another by Chinese. He was shocked to see that the Indian product is costly and inferior, and the Chinese one was cheaper and lot superior, and the packaging was superb.

Overall, the only jobs that you can expect to get done in India is low quality menial jobs which don't require thinking. And the price is the main important in low quality jobs, so if inflation is high you lose. Indians simply can't compete on competence !

set said...

www.checkfloor.com

Mangoman said...

Rajan arrives with a bang.

He kept quite until he captures the chair and now showing who is he.

Chidambaram would not have expected these actions and now he cannot touch Rajan since System is not going to allow that. even sentiment will get affected.

Even though subbarao is also a hawk, his slave mentality did not allow him to act against government, but Rajan is different as far as what I have observed.

Now, he killed several birds in one shot.

1. Raised rates ( signal to corporates and RE Mafia)
2. Signal to government not to mess with him
3. He has also effectively given a message saying that the monetary policy will be decided based on the then conditions, unlike Subbarao who says he will reduce rate in next coming policy.

The killing of inflation expectation is very important and he has done exactly that. Now since he has not spoken openly about the asset bubbles, I think in next meeting somebody should ask about that.

www.mangoman2012.blogspot.in

aam aadmi said...

I was hoping for a 100bps hike but this will do for now.

skeptic's ghost said...

Indian home construction quality is mediocre too. Also the bath fittings etc are really poor and start disintegrating in 2-3 years. Indian builders dont build homes that can be repaired wihtout costly maintenance - look at all the streaks of water leakage fixing in the 2-3 crore per flat highrises of Mumbai. In America/UK you can go to home depot/IKEA and get the materials for fixing your furniture/plumbing/painting etc and do it yourself.

And Yes, most Indian engineering grads and art designers are mediocre - why ? because Indian institutions and Indian politics are run like Indian families. - You don't question authority - the only way up is by winning favors or belonging to a particular caste/community - Which undermines any efforts to improve unless it has patronage of the "leaders".

Unless we include continued improvement in every process of life - from bathroom cleanliness to civic duties to education - we are stuck in this rut. This is bottom up in many countries, But in India this has to be made top down too.

I still have hope - Thankfully there is the internet and India does have decent sized consumer market - its about time people take this seriously and mend their ways. If India could excel in IT we can also excel in other sectors given the right tax breaks, incentives and eduction.

REBear said...

Raghu did a commendable job, but its too early to conclude anything about his intentions. See this news story too where there are plans to subsidise home loans and car loans where RBU might be using a special window for lending to banks.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-finmin-considering-funding-for-lending-scheme-to-enable-cheaper-auto-realty-loans/articleshow/22671709.cms

REBear said...

Indian home construction quality is mediocre too. Also the bath fittings etc are really poor and start disintegrating in 2-3 years.

This is why I feel 1 INR = 0 USD ! Went to my friend's house in Nirvana Country, Gurgaon. Delivered by Unitech just 3 years ago and there are cracks on the walls, cracks on the wall adjacent to door frames, and looked like 20 year old. I told him how can anyone pay 2 cr for it. He said go and see DLF Beliare apartments which are more costly and to save wood, DLF has made door frame using ply which contains thermacol in the interior !!!

Anonymous said...

^^ Itni jaldi Amrika ke bhajan kirtan mut gao

Search for "Chinese drywall" to know real US construction quality.

Indians can become better, we need true leaders. Engineer aur doctor rishwat deke admission aur degree lete hai, politicians rishwat deke vote lete hai phir nateeja kya milega, Mera Bharat Mahan?

Anonymous said...

The IT job scene is onside revival path. Look at this guy. Man 93 lakhs salary

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/education/news/Google-USA-offers-Delhi-Technological-University-student-Rs-93-lakh-per-annum-package/articleshow/22727325.cms

REBear said...

^^ Itni jaldi Amrika ke bhajan kirtan mut gao

Don't worry, I rely more on the first hand data that I collect myself rather than on news stories. If you want, I can post lot of facts about apartments in different cities in US (both metropolitan and small towns across the US).

Anonymous said...

"The IT job scene is onside revival path. Look at this guy. Man 93 lakhs salary

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/education/news/Google-USA-offers-Delhi-Technological-University-student-Rs-93-lakh-per-annum-package/articleshow/22727325.cms"

Lol what a joke.
So if google offered this guy a salary of 50 lakhs per annum you think he wouldnt take it.

Forget 50 lakhs even it was 20 lakhs and 'GOOGLE' attached to his resume he would have taken it.

This is paid news for the general public for personal profit

Anonymous said...

Another solid package. IT jobs are becoming very lucrative. Anybody with 7 years of experience earning in lakhs

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/Microsoft-offers-Ahmedabad-boy-180000-to-work-in-its-US-headquarters/articleshow/22871324.cms

Anonymous said...

What is wrong with the picture? No matter where you graduate from Microsoft doesn't offer that kind of money. Clearly the reporter's ethics should be questioned here. Did anyone believe that a fresh PG is offered $180K + incentive by MS? What is included in the package? Perhaps, relo cost, recruiting cost. It must be cost to the company and who know what is company including in the cost.

Anonymous said...

come to think of it, this will be a lost generation for the current and the next one..

Anonymous said...

// No matter where you graduate from Microsoft doesn't offer that kind of money

No man, Microsoft is multi billion dollar company profile. It can pay huge amounts to hire the best of best talent. This guy is smart person from India and got offered record breaking package
After all Microsoft is dream company work for IT graduate

Anonymous said...

The 1997 real estate crisis in India - http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/real-estate-business-in-india-faces-unprecedented-crisis-as-prices-plummets/1/276369.html

Nairman point was at 32k/sqft in 1995, today it is at 33k !

Who says prices never fall here ? This time due to leverage and the sheer number of investors and overstretched middle class buyers, the pain may be more.

Anonymous said...

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/global-agencies-downgrade-sbi-bob-pnb-debt-ratings/1173154/0

SBI's revised rating for the senior unsecured debt and local currency deposit instruments would now be Baa3 from the earlier Baa2, Moody's said, while revising down its outlook on the bank's financial strength rating to negative from stable.




Anonymous said...

To the moderators,

The real collapse has started and things are gung ho for bears of RE.

There are atleast 5 articles daily in leading economic dailies about RE collapse.

It is time to be active the blog and please post more articles....

Anonymous said...

Anon 8:18

what are you smoking? I'm talking about tops students who won awards in international math and computer science Olympiad. I'm not talking about kid graduating from India. I'm talking about graduates from all over the world. Don't tell me the market cap of MS. I know a lot of graduates (tech and MBA PGs and PHDs) who were hired by MS. BTW, MS is not the benchmark as a pay master. Not any more. They face challenges in hiring the best and brightest.

Rustomjee said...

When you knew the prices would eventually come down, they said, "Double your money in a year."

When you saw that the sales were down, they said, "There is a temporary weakness in the market."

When you saw the prices drop by 20 percent, they said, "You can negotiate some freebies."

When they say, "The market is crashing," you better run from it, as fast as you can!!!

aam aadmi said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-now-against-0-emis-for-consumer-goods-banks-withdraw-finance-schemes-festive-sales-likely-to-be-hit/articleshow/22955732.cms

RBI now against 0% EMIs for consumer goods, banks withdraw finance schemes; festive sales likely to be hit

Slowdown.

But of course we all know that people have infinite cash in the form of black money.

Anonymous said...

^^ @aam aadmi, please use a [sarcasm]..[/sarcasm] tag or something like that, else new visitors to this blog may not understand what you mean :)

Anonymous said...

@ Dr Doom
This is a sponsored sales report but how much of it is true especially the debt external and internal the rise in income to rise in house prices since 30s or rise in interest rates in future and Quantitative Easing how beneficial it has been to stock market than to common man

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Massive-wealth-destruction-economy/2013/06/20/id/511043/?PROMO_CODE=13EF5-1

Anonymous said...

// what are you smoking

Why are you denigrating fellow Indians. This Indian guy is also smart and because of that only Microsoft offered him 180K of money

Anonymous said...

Worlds Least Honest Cities

Mumbai is the second most honest city above London, New York, Moscow. A food for thought for morons who badmouth the country

Anonymous said...

"Mumbai is the second most honest city above London, New York, Moscow. A food for thought for morons who badmouth the country"

There could be other factors at play here. If the study was conducted by Readers' Digest and the ID card in the wallet was that of a white person and contained only 50$, 95% of Indians would return that wallet, basically trading off the 50$ for a chance to curry favour with a White. If the ID card in the wallet was that of a white WOMAN, then the chances that an Indian would return it in Mumbai would approach 100%. Again, for most Indians, the chance to connect and curry favour with a white woman in exchange for $50 is an opportunity that few would miss.

There is only one thing Indians love more than money and that is white skin.

skeptic optimist said...

To people asking to post more articles - this is a "Housing bubble" blog - not a "Real Estate Bubble" blog

Housing prices haven't crahsed yet, the news articles are mostly citing auctions of commercial and industrial real estate - which has no takers.

The housing market in India will always have demand, so it is difficult to pinpoint the day prices start dropping.

One thing to note is that the Municipal Corportations of all 8-9 big metro areas in India have ready reckoner pricing for taxes and the rates will never drop below that by law ...

I wonder how market moves around that

Anonymous said...

I work for an MNC in Bangalore and lately, I have seen many of the Indians with US citizenship, going back to the US. They were all doing assignments in Bangalore and many of them have a couple of years left in
their Bangalore postings. Some even
took up "lower grade" jobs in the
parent US organization.

Is this a trend others are seeing as well? I wonder why!

Anonymous said...

>One thing to note is that the Municipal Corportations of all 8-9 big metro areas in India have ready reckoner pricing for taxes and the rates will never drop below that by law ...

That is just the rate at which taxes have to be paid. Transaction can happen at any price. In 2008, I know for a fact that land prices in the outskirts of Bangalore fell below the govt guidance value.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 8:48 PM:

Guidance values have been increased in some areas of Bangalore outskirts again. I am in the process of selling some land and the prices quoted are about 15% below guidance value.

Guidance values are just government greed to get their share of the pie and don't mean much.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 10:13 AM

I know of several Indians with US citizenship who have moved back, including those who returned to India 10 years back. There are several reasons for this, but many returned believing the India hype between 2005 & 2010. However, careers didn't progress and reality set in. Quality of life in general is much better in the US & so are career choices. The cost of living in Bangalore is comparable to that of many US cities, but the increasing congestion and pollution are overwhelming.

I returned about 4 years back and continue to stay only for personal/family reasons. In the past year, I've realized that this is a short term story for me as well.

Anonymous said...

// However, careers didn't progress and reality set in.

I have been planning to return back to India. My company does not have an office in india so I will be on my own. I am happy in US but I feel my career can progress more in India. Is that no longer the case. I see most of my batchmates who were average are now vice Presidents and Directors. Any chance this growth is possible now

karthik said...

In my home need modular kitchen for my mom. But we checked more kitchen in chennai zone. Can you please tell which company is best and worthable in chennai........

Suresh said...

Anony@4.08 PM

Donot think you have been left behind your class mates.Many job titles in India are fictious and do not mean much.There are umpteen number of directors,vice president in any company.They may not have any serious business reponsibilities or any one working under them but given fictious titles to fool clients etc.
Many who have returned from overseas struggle to work in the unproductive and dictatorial work environment in India and go back fed up.60 hours per week are kind of norm in India these days whether you got work to do or not.Better stay back and enjoy your life in the US.

aam aadmi said...

@Above
Investment banks lead this category, there are about 25 vice presidents in a certain MNC in Mumbai.

I was shocked to hear that my classmate had become the vice president at such a young age, then someone told me the whole story.

Anonymous said...

// then someone told me the whole story.

Just curious. Waht is the story

Anonymous said...

Mostly who are 'invested' will bring this argument that the bubble bursting is bad..but deep in their heart they also knew that it is good for the country..but their judgement is clouded... we should understand the human psychology...

It is to be noted, that we too have real estate assets ( I did not buy at inflated prices, it is merely acquired by me, but the opportunity cost theory comes into picture.)...but still I want this bubble has to be burst for the future of our kids..for the future of our country...

We have 2 choices..we can burst it ..better late than never ..that is now...or we can allow it and it will burst on its own weight..but that will be much uglier...

Please have a look at the below blogpost...

The “Real” Nifty Adjusted for “Real” Inflation Will Shock You | Capital Mind


Apart from the real estate ponzai India has also inflate a ponzai scheme called share market. The blog post bursts the myth of that ponzai scheme. The blog says from 2008-2009 inflation adjusted ( CPI - real inflation) return from indian share market is -43% which is astonishing...

Kindly note that the index is at the same level..but if you are playing in market you would know that the index is manipulated using few select stocks and the people who invested in real estate are screwed royally...

The real estate also feeded by the mindless inflation actively encouraged by the fraud government, corporate mafia and greedy investors.....Except the intelligent guys who sold the appreciation all others are going to suffer...

As I said, the guy who is invested in real estate and waiting for appreciation has scant respect for inflation control because his ass is in line...and the wonderfully crafted cheating argument of 'supply side' is used by them to thwart the argument..but sadly they forget that the supply side constraints were there in India when the inflation was at 3% or 4% time also. That speaks volume about the real reason.

The money earned from real estate is actually 'blood money' from the thousands and thousands of Indians who are paying for the inflation from their hard earned money...you may not agree openly..but ask your heart.....

Orange county said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

>Just curious. Waht is the story ?

Nothing really. A VP is almost an entry level position in an I-bank. Nothing to brag about there.

Associate (2-3yrs exp) -> AVP (3-5) -> VP.

Not like manufacturing or even software where a VP is really senior. Though we are seeing rank inflation even in the software industry nowadays :)

Anonymous said...

^^

In the software industry nowadays everyone is a Director

aam aadmi said...

@Anon above
There's no story really as someone said, designations are getting ridiculous.
Initially everyone was called a software engineer in a software company now we have terms like "research associates" "partner consultants". I have no idea what they mean by that.

Thankfully in my company we don't have this disease, it takes a lifetime to become a vice president and it actually means that you are a vice president. For engineering we only have three external designations, software engineer, senior software engineer and architect, it takes 10 years or more to make the senior grade and 15-20 to get to architect.

Anonymous said...

Nothing personal guys...but look at yourself in the mirror, if you cannot afford to buy a house, it is a RE bubble fueled by Cheap credit, Black money etc etc. If someone is a VP, Exec Director, CEO, it is a entry level position etal..don't you think there needs to be a self introspection... again nothing personal...

Anonymous said...

>Anon - "If someone is a VP, Exec Director, CEO, it is a entry level position etal..don't you think there needs to be a self introspection... again nothing personal..."

Nothing personal, but rank inflation is here to stay in the corporate world.

I read somewhere that the US universities are facing a problem of grade inflation. Much like our own Delhi University where cut-offs are at 99.9%.

When the central banks are debasing money, why should other institutions not do the same to their units of measurement :)

Besides, ranks/designations matter only when you meet your friends and on linkedin. Within a firm, substance matters far more than style and people usually figure out who is worthy of the designation and who is not. Much like the stock market, hype can carry you only so far. Ultimately you have to deliver.

I was not trying to denigrate anyone, but only replying to a previous poster who seemed surprised at the designations held by his friends.

Anonymous said...

I work in software.

My designation: Senior Software engineer

My boss designation: VP Software Infrastructure

My boss' boss' designation: VP Software

My boss' boss' boss' designation: VP Business

The only person who knows anything about the product is me. Frankly don't know what the rest contribute to the organization but I'm pretty sure they earn 2-3x my salary. Go figure...

aam aadmi said...

Slowdown is only beginning

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/car-dealers-now-in-reverse-gear-as-inventory-up-40-113093000019_1.html

The slowdown in the automobile industry seems to be deeper than the Society of Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) figures indicate. Compared with last year, dealers' inventories have risen by about 40 per cent.

Gulshan Ahuja, secretary general, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada) says: "The average inventory at the dealers' end is more than two months. Given that there are 2,800-3,000 passenger car dealers in the country, if one considers an average of Rs 1 crore worth of inventory per dealer, it means dealers are sitting on an inventory worth around Rs 3,000 crore."

REBear said...

Slowdown is only beginning

This is clear about India, but things are horrible in US as I can see. Lot of things have changed in US in the past 2 years. Right now in Jersey city, and I have clearly seen the pressure that middle class here is facing due to inflation. Middle class Americans are spending most of their time where to buy stuff for cheap as inflation has started picking up now without increase in incomes. Rents have gone up too. Infrastructure is clearly deteriorating as Govt is busy donating food coupons. Been told today that if there is a Govt shutdown ferry service to Statue of Liberty would be down tomorrow ! Imagine what a Govt shutdown would mean. Most of the stores in Manhattan do not have any footfall, wonder how they are surviving. I can sense doom in the US coming soon, and hence a global meltdown. The rents, real estate prices in NY/NJ clearly are not sustainable.

Will keep noticing more data during the trip. At this time I feel it is best to go short on Dow.

REBear said...

Also I now see most people on subway carrying cheaper smart phones rather than iPhones, which is exactly opposite to what I saw year and a half back. And most are carrying iPhone 4S or earlier rather than latest iPhone models. This suggests pressure on spending that has caught up recently.

Anonymous said...

lots of houses in Cal, Fla, Tex, Az bought by Hedge Funds. Silicon valley now filled with Goog, Ebay, FBook, Twitter 20 and 30 something million dollar guys, displacing the 40 and up crowd. Rents way up in San Fran. Bread up 30-40% in the last two years, milk up 30%, Gasoline over 3 dollars for the last three years, Insurance up 30% over the last couple of years and going up more. Savings going down,so watch out for the coming disaster. Stock market has made a spectacular move to the upside, but it is the lowest volume move of all time. Amzn, Lnkd, Crm and other companies selling at dot come prices. Only a matter of time, before we see a 1000 pt move to the downside, wiping out the margin players overnight. Cap gains next year will be great for the govt, but it will be disaster after that.

JSH said...

Mall magic fades as reality catches up with shoppers

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-mall-magic-fades-as-reality-catches-up-with-shoppers-370361?ch=as&pfrom=home-otherstories

sahil bhosale said...

yes..i agree i seen that bubble burst with 2 BHK Flats in Brahmand that was very bad..

saurabh kumar said...

Great Information about real estate.
Thanks for share.

WTC Noida is an international level business center in Noida which launched by a well known real estate developer Spire World at Tech zone-1, Greater Noida. Offers furnished office space area with great amenities attractive price point.

nivesh bazaar said...

Nice blog post
Thanks for share....
Keep sharing..
proprties

residential projects in mumbai said...

hmm..that seems to be positive news for the Realtors..they can speed up their at halt /slow construction and produce new units..

tracy smith said...

Nice Blogging thanks for sharing.
villa For Sale in Hyderabad

buy sell rent property in india said...

great work by RBI..and SEBI has also come up with REITs..

saurabh kumar said...

Hello,
Very nice post.
WTC Noida is the world class economic zone which launched by Spire World and Sunworld Group in Noida. It offers a hi tech business center.

online real estate india said...

the builders have been in deep trouble with the increase in construction costs. some of them have even stalled their work. so now the RBI have come to their rescue. thanks for sahring this post.

My Property Stores said...

Property housing bubble is expected to burst in 2014

gujarat real estate said...

by the creation of REIT by SEBI a great help have been provided to the builders. they have been at relief now and the stalled projects have also started in full swing.

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Hello Author.
I agree with your blog.
WTC Greater Noida is the new and famous real estate projects in the city of Noida and Greater Noida. It offers office space, retail space with the different sizes are 350 sq ft to 1000 sq ft.

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Hello
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Good news for developers as well as individuals.
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Finally a sign of improvement for real estate people out there.
Good step by RBI.
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Good boost by RBI to all real estate professionals.
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Afsar Ali said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Afsar Ali said...

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