Monday, March 24, 2014

Chinese Bubble Pops (At last)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/china-li-keqiang-wans-investors-bankruptcies 
Last week Chinese premiere Li Keqiang warned that there may mass defaults by builders of ghost towns in China who had borrowed from both traditional lenders and shadow lending (gray market).  He also told investors to prepare for a wave of bankruptcies.

Given the Election time in India I am almost certain the bubble will pop after a new government is sworn in and then the blame/burden will be shifted to the new govt.



Here's the Article from good old Zerohedge

Furious Chinese Demand Money Back As Housing Bubble Pops

Tyler Durden's picture


Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned or, it seems, like a Chinese real estate speculator who is losing money. After four years of talking (and not doing much) about cooling the hot-money speculation that is the Chinese real-estate bubble (mirroring the US equity market bubble since stock-ownership is low in China), the WSJ reports that the people are restless as the PBOC actually takes actions - and prices are falling. With new project prices down over 20%, 'homeowners' exclaim "return our hard-earned money" and "this is very unfair" - who could have seen this coming?
Via WSJ,
After a four-year campaign by the government to cool spiraling property prices, rises in home prices are starting to slow and in some smaller cities they are weakening.

Growth in average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities moderated in February for the second-straight month though they were still nearly 9% higher compared with a year ago.

But weaker economic growth, slower home sales and rising volumes of unsold houses have convinced developers in a number of cities to cut prices to raise cash quickly.
And new home prices are down...in smaller cities...
Property developers say privately there isn't enough transparency in land sales and land use, which sometimes give rise to overbuilding in many smaller cities.

Phoenix Lake Garden, prices were cut by as much as 16%

According to property agency Soufun Holdings, Wharf cut prices of 20 apartments in the project to 8,200 yuan ($1,317) per square meter, down from the average 11,000 yuan per square meter it recorded in recent months.

Mr. Wu said he bought a 120-square-meter apartment in December, for 730,000 yuan. Prices are now 610,000 yuan for a similar apartment in the same tower
The drop in newer home prices hasn't gone down well.
Groups of angry homeowners put up banners and demanded their money back after Hong Kong-listed property developer Wharf Ltd. cut prices

Around 20 homeowners picketed outside a property showroom in Changzhou Saturday, demanding to meet executives of the developer. They said they wanted their money back after prices at the project dropped

Meanwhile, there was also a small disturbance at a second project called Ambassador House in the same city after the same developer cut prices there.

Furniture at the showroom of Wharf's Ambassador House was knocked over and the wooden stands for advertisements for the homes were flung on top of a model of the project.

Others said that as many as 100 people who had bought homes at the project had vented their frustrations outside the showroom over the past week.
The complaints...
"Wharf, give us justice. Return us our hard earned money," read one of the banners, held up on bamboo poles outside the Phoenix Lake Garden showroom of a project for mid- to high-end apartments and villas.

"We aren't speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer," said one 35-year-old home buyer, who said he had bought an apartment and gave his surname as Wu. "This is very unfair."
Unfair indeed. How long before we hear they are "entitled" to a fair return on their housing (non) speculation investment? Alas for China's "non-speculators", as we reported last week in "The Music Just Ended: "Wealthy" Chinese Are Liquidating Offshore Luxury Homes In Scramble For Cash" the real anger is only just beginning.

809 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Unaffordable property: Land is scarce, prices can only rise

Unaffordable property: Land is scarce, prices can only rise - Moneycontrol.com

R Jagannathan
Firstbiz.com

Why has city realty become so unaffordable to almost everyone but the rich and super-rich in India? Is there any chance that prices will come down significantly?

Ask realtors, builders, home lending agencies, bankers and people who already own homes, and the answer to the second question will always be: no, barring short-term minor corrections, prices can only go up and up. Ask them a follow-up question - who will buy such high-priced real estate if incomes are not rising even half as fast - and they will talk about mysterious "investors". One presumes they are talking about speculators.

Barring homeowners, who are obviously not real estate experts and hence may be mouthing only what they hear and see, the rest are all speaking half-truths, if not outright lies. These half-truths are believed because of two other intuitive beliefs we all tend to nurture: that land is scarce, and relative to availability, a growing population will always ensure rising demand, whatever the price of land. That’s why prices can only go up.

Sorry, but this is a voodoo belief, and not based on sensible economics. No theory in economics tells us that demand will always outstrip supply, even given a finite resource like land. The fact is: when prices rise too much, demand will either fall or shift to substitutes.

Aha! But land has no substitutes, you will say. After all, the basis for this touching faith in voodoo non-economics is this quote: “Buy land. They ain’t making any more of it.” Attributed variously to many people, from Mark Twain to Will Rogers, this quote forms the basis for all myths about real estate. In India we believe more in this notion than in god because, over the last two decades, we have not seen real estate really crash or fall dramatically. At worst, we have seen small corrections.

Let me try and dispel this myth. Neither is land supply limited, nor is population growth a continuous given.

Anonymous said...

Start with the world. Current population is around 7.1 billion. The estimates are that this population will peak around 2050 in the range of 8.7-9.5 billion. In short, the overall population of the world will rise by only 20-30 percent from now. So if we are talking demand for houses, the net additional demand over and above what exists now is just 20-30 percent based on population growth.

I am oversimplifying to make the reasoning clear – not to hide reality. The flaw in the above argument is clear: the bulk of the land may be available in North America, Africa, Russia, etc, not in India, South and West Asia, where most of this population growth is going to come from. So, you may ask, is it not fair to assume that land prices in India must keep rising continuously?

Not quite. There is a reason why prices keep rising, but it’s not about India’s population, which is expected to peak in 2060 at around 1.7 billion (from 1.2 billion now). That’s another 500 million to go in five decades. Put another way, even assuming land supply remains the same, the additional population demanding houses – assuming everyone is earning an income – will be up by only 50 percent.

Okay, let me grant you another flaw in the argument. The problem is with urban land availability. India is urbanising rapidly, and we will probably have an urban population of around 600 million by 2031 – about 17 years from now, up from 300-and-odd million. So, even in urban India, we are talking about a doubling of population by 2013. Not exactly something that should drive land prices 10- or 20-fold, as they have done over the last decade or more.

If we have capped the population/demand issue, let’s now nail the supply side argument – that land is scarce and supply won't increase.

But is it? If your city allows an FSI (floor space index) of 1:1 – that is you can build an area equal to the size of the land you hold – land will be scarce. If the FSI is doubled, land supply will double – since you can build higher. In places like New York and Singapore, FSIs range upwards of 10. In India, we can double or triple land even in urban areas simply by tinkering with FSI and redeveloping old property even in city centres.

Urban land is not scarce, urban infrastructure is. It is the lack of fast, cheap public transport – and lack of social infrastructure like schools and hospitals – that makes the pockets where such infrastructure is available horribly expensive.

Anonymous said...

The real issue in urban property prices thus boils down to location. Land is available in plenty where the infrastructure is weak. The solution to the problem of land is thus infrastructure and FSI.

But, you may ask, if this is so easy – why isn’t it happening?

The answer: in India, real estate is a malfunctioning market. Only one side of the demand-supply equation works: demand. The supply side is bottled up by vested interests and systems that constrict availability.

Here’s why.

If you expand the supply of land by FSI or infrastructure, the wealth and profits of all those who currently hold land will crash. This is why realtors, builders, home lending agencies, bankers and people who already own homes prefer to believe that prices will keep rising even as new buyers hope it will fall and correct.

Real estate prices are being propped up by high expectations.

Many builders would be ruined if prices crash. Banks would have to put in enormous amounts of capital in case realtors go belly-up and default (many have begun to default anyway). State governments will lose revenue in the short-run if prices crash. Home loan companies will have to demand part repayment of loans in case the value of the mortgaged property falls drastically.

This is why these vested interests prefer to assume that prices will always rise – and keep talking the market up.

But, surely, there are lots of people (including investors and speculators) who still buy property? Sure, but many of them may merely be flipping higher-value property to buy lower-value ones, or parking the huge hoards of black money created in the boom years of 2003-08. When black money quantum soars in the economy, there are only three likely places to park them anonymously: real estate, offshore tax havens or gold. The threat to offshore tax havens – from the US tax authorities - has probably pushed some of the Indian loot held abroad into real estate.

Why only real estate, and not gold or shares or other assets? Simple: the markets for gold and shares cannot be rigged, not even in India, for such large sums of money. That leaves only real estate, where politicians, builders and crooks can band together to artificially constrict the supply of land and keep prices high even though nobody is buying.

A case in point: lots of land would be available near Mumbai in the trans-harbour area if only there is a road/rail link across the sea from south Mumbai. But for 10 years now, vested interests have stalled the building of this bridge to prevent a crash in south Mumbai realty prices.

Anonymous said...

This is why city property prices are high.

This begs the question: can they ever fall significantly? Yes, in Nariman Point in south Mumbai, property prices are 25 percent down from their peak. Commercial property prices have taken a beating regularly. It is only residential property prices that have held up – and that too has a reason.

Those who have only one home can’t sell as they may be staying in it. Those who are willing to move out to cheaper places do sell, but the expectation that property prices can rise further dies a hard death. Thus, they take their time in deciding to sell and cash out. The laborious process of buying and selling property in most urban centres adds another crimp in the supply pipeline.

If you believe that you cannot ultimately defy the laws of economics, and that irrational laws that artificially restrict supply cannot forever be allowed to remain on the statute books, city realty prices have to fall. Not unless you irrationally believe that people will buy overvalued property even when their incomes are not rising as fast. Or that investors can hold on forever. It needs only some significant story of huge losses to get them to sell and book profits (or but losses).

Of course, we don’t know when that will happen. Just that it will.

Here’s one piece of statistic to tell you the larger reality.

Ajay Shah of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy wrote last year in The Economic Times, there is no real shortage of land in India. “If you place 1.2 billion people in four-person homes of 1,000 square feet each, and two workers of the family into office/factory space of 400 square feet, this requires roughly 1 percent of India’s land area assuming an FSI (floor space index) of 1. There is absolutely no shortage of land to house the great Indian population.”

Now, or in the future, one may add.

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group

Anonymous said...

Cleveland's plan to destroy nearly 6,000 homes
November 13 NEW YORK
In and around Cleveland, nearly 6,000 foreclosed and abandoned homes are being destroyed in an effort to save neighborhoods from blight, crime and sinking home prices.
Instead of trying to rebuild on these properties, however, the city has been turning the empty lots into parks, greenhouses, even vineyards.
"For the larger body -- the neighborhood -- to survive, you have to remove those cancer cells," said Frank Ford, a policy adviser for the nonprofit Thriving Communities Institute of Cleveland.

Anonymous said...

Most of the houses listed in sales websites are by 'owners' aka investors. This is is on top of builders and brokers.
If anyone look at the big complexes you will see 80% are rented ones. Tenants should negotiate hard, ask for 50% discount.

Anonymous said...

We sold our native home for rupees 30000 this year !!!! It was built in 1970s.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 4:38pm

//My purchase price was 5 crores 4-5 years back. made 1 crore doing nothing in the past 4 years of investment.//

1.If you had put that money in bank , you would have received 2.5 crores. You lost 1.5 crores with investment


2. 5 years back your net worth was 5cr/42rs for 1$= $1,190,476
Today your networth is 6cr/61.5 = $975,609

You are $200,000 poorer . And you are blaming a guy who works hard and has no inheritance?


Anonymous said...

Not blaming my brother but telling him that life is good in US as in India the RE market is very volatile and party seems to be getting over. I don't care in USD terms as I live in India but still a lot of easy money would disappear very soon in India.

Anonymous said...

This is from my Manager in Kansas City, Kansas USA.
I was discussing real estate in USA and my Manager told me that it is almost 50% off from the peak.
As far as India goes...Though prices are still in upward trend..it slow..and lot of places it is stagnant...
The so called investors/speculators - Mostly highly paid IT/MBA guys still have jobs and making good money..so they can still hold it....but once the Debt bubble in USA blows worse than 2008...hell will broke lose...

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aam aadmi said...

If anybody is still reading the comments section..

I was browsing the price trends section in Bangalore on Magic Bricks yesterday and what I found confirmed my suspicions.

1. Prices have been stagnant over the last one year.
2. Even before that (from 2009 onwards) they have given a measly annualized 7-8% return.

If you bought before 2009 it's a different story.

Barring a select few localities you have lost money if you have bought RE in Bangalore. FD gives the same rate of return and peace of mind. Not to mention the fact that rents are still very low. In my locality CV Raman Nagar there is one vacant apartment available for rent in almost every apartment.

Here's another enlightening piece on the macro data

http://capitalmind.in/2014/11/three-hidden-facts-in-the-gdp-growth-number-of-5-3-for-sep-2014/

Human psyche is a curious thing, I am betting that the crash will be bigger with the Modi govt in power because

1. He is a good administrator but not superman, he can't stop global deflation.

2. Just the sheer amount of expectations from this govt means that it's going to fail on those and it's the perception that counts.

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Anonymous said...

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Please read the article
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SBI Capital, a unit of State Bank of India, the nation’s largest bank, may revamp 500 billion rupees ($9.1 billion) in loans in the year ending March 31. That’s a 15-fold jump from 33 billion rupees of debt the firm helped renegotiate two years ago, he said in an interview in Mumbai. The investment bank did not revamp any loans in the 12 months to March 31, 2010.

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Commercialexperts said...
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Sanjay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sanjay said...

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