Monday, March 24, 2014

Chinese Bubble Pops (At last)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/13/china-li-keqiang-wans-investors-bankruptcies 
Last week Chinese premiere Li Keqiang warned that there may mass defaults by builders of ghost towns in China who had borrowed from both traditional lenders and shadow lending (gray market).  He also told investors to prepare for a wave of bankruptcies.

Given the Election time in India I am almost certain the bubble will pop after a new government is sworn in and then the blame/burden will be shifted to the new govt.



Here's the Article from good old Zerohedge

Furious Chinese Demand Money Back As Housing Bubble Pops

Tyler Durden's picture


Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned or, it seems, like a Chinese real estate speculator who is losing money. After four years of talking (and not doing much) about cooling the hot-money speculation that is the Chinese real-estate bubble (mirroring the US equity market bubble since stock-ownership is low in China), the WSJ reports that the people are restless as the PBOC actually takes actions - and prices are falling. With new project prices down over 20%, 'homeowners' exclaim "return our hard-earned money" and "this is very unfair" - who could have seen this coming?
Via WSJ,
After a four-year campaign by the government to cool spiraling property prices, rises in home prices are starting to slow and in some smaller cities they are weakening.

Growth in average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities moderated in February for the second-straight month though they were still nearly 9% higher compared with a year ago.

But weaker economic growth, slower home sales and rising volumes of unsold houses have convinced developers in a number of cities to cut prices to raise cash quickly.
And new home prices are down...in smaller cities...
Property developers say privately there isn't enough transparency in land sales and land use, which sometimes give rise to overbuilding in many smaller cities.

Phoenix Lake Garden, prices were cut by as much as 16%

According to property agency Soufun Holdings, Wharf cut prices of 20 apartments in the project to 8,200 yuan ($1,317) per square meter, down from the average 11,000 yuan per square meter it recorded in recent months.

Mr. Wu said he bought a 120-square-meter apartment in December, for 730,000 yuan. Prices are now 610,000 yuan for a similar apartment in the same tower
The drop in newer home prices hasn't gone down well.
Groups of angry homeowners put up banners and demanded their money back after Hong Kong-listed property developer Wharf Ltd. cut prices

Around 20 homeowners picketed outside a property showroom in Changzhou Saturday, demanding to meet executives of the developer. They said they wanted their money back after prices at the project dropped

Meanwhile, there was also a small disturbance at a second project called Ambassador House in the same city after the same developer cut prices there.

Furniture at the showroom of Wharf's Ambassador House was knocked over and the wooden stands for advertisements for the homes were flung on top of a model of the project.

Others said that as many as 100 people who had bought homes at the project had vented their frustrations outside the showroom over the past week.
The complaints...
"Wharf, give us justice. Return us our hard earned money," read one of the banners, held up on bamboo poles outside the Phoenix Lake Garden showroom of a project for mid- to high-end apartments and villas.

"We aren't speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer," said one 35-year-old home buyer, who said he had bought an apartment and gave his surname as Wu. "This is very unfair."
Unfair indeed. How long before we hear they are "entitled" to a fair return on their housing (non) speculation investment? Alas for China's "non-speculators", as we reported last week in "The Music Just Ended: "Wealthy" Chinese Are Liquidating Offshore Luxury Homes In Scramble For Cash" the real anger is only just beginning.

803 comments:

1 – 200 of 803   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

"We aren't speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer," said one 35-year-old home buyer, who said he had bought an apartment and gave his surname as Wu. "This is very unfair."

This is priceless and ridiculous beyond words.

Anonymous said...

Yippee... New post.
Great Post.

The bulls had their share of happiness last few months.

Now that you have grown big and fat time to slaughter you Mr. Bull :)

Anonymous said...

fuhhh..

Anonymous said...

Dream on..Come down to India and you will see property prices soaring and stock market hitting new highs everyday..

Pop!! Goes the Bubble! said...

Meanwhile in La La Land called India bubbles are primed to be pricked. Two articles suggesting things are not bad....they are worst.

http://www.firstbiz.com/corporate/two-charts-sum-indias-real-estate-biggies-deep-deep-trouble-80451.html

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/realty-brokers-on-slippery-ground-113081900006_1.html

AS they in Bengaluru - Enjoy Maadi!

Lovely Chaturwedi said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Wow. Is this blog still alive? Amazing!

The people who follow this blog remind me of the members of the Flat Earth Society!

Anonymous said...

Typical bull rally sustained for 10 years . There will ne bears bringing down them to fair valuations, in order match with 6% rental income /year . Fair value would be 40 to 50 % of the current values. These r gonna come come what may !

Junkyard John said...

Indian housing market has not burst yet but this site seem to have burst looking at the activity here....

Anonymous said...

Junkyard John...

Here is an anecdote for you -

A college of mine recently left her 3 BHK row house to live in her 2 BHK flat near the work place. The 20 km commute from her row house was getting to her and her family. She figured that she would be able to hive off her row house on rent and that would help her maintain both properties and help with the EMIs.

This is in a safe RE city - Pune.

Life does not play out as expected, does it?

It has been a year since her row-house has been on the rental market and the last offer she has received is Rs10000/- pm rent. (Expected above 15000)

The "market" value of her row house is 1 crore. You can figure out the P/E ration...it is obviously peanuts.

When confronted with such hard fiscal facts, I am not sure how people plug RE as a safe investment?

I think, the it is because the other asset classes (shares, mutual funds) etc. which dominate in a mature economy, do not enjoy confidence of the general public...because the crony capitalism that exist in this country, everybody knows that the there is no "free" economy and the markets get manipulated. So, the only safe investment bets are RE and Gold - even though aquisition and maintenence costs are high.

This is the reason why "businessmen" like Raju of Sathyam fame are compelled to hide their wealth in land and probably gold -not in the business that made him rich - Software services.

Comments and thoughts?

Anonymous said...

No comments or thoughts. This board is dead and should be shut down.

There is no bubble. No nothing. Indian RE only goes up.

Accept facts and move on.

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Junkyard John said...

Anony@8;19pm

1.Indian economy is seeing one of the worst economic slow downs for the last two years.
2.Interest rates are at the highest level
3.Unemployment is steadily going up the usually buoyant IT sector is shedding jobs
4.Inflation is very high reducing disposable income of average indians

In spite of all the above negative factors,the housing market has not burst.May be it has not risen as fast as in previous years.Once a new government is in place the uptrend will continue.Bears on this forum can put their tail between legs and go into hiding.

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Anonymous said...

Corruption is easily adding a 30-50% premium to RE prices in India.

Unlike US or China, politicians have a *direct* stake in RE in India. Black money from the builder mafia enables these politicians to buy elections and consolidate their power. So it's unlikely they will slaughter the goose that lays the golden egg.

Unless the SHTF, then all bets are off. But in that scenario RE prices will be the least of your worries.

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Anonymous said...

"Struggling to diversify the delivery footprint to take advantage of low-cost centres, India's BPO industry is currently losing 70 per cent of all incremental voice and call centre business to competitors like Philippines and countries in Eastern Europe, says a report"


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3 Bhk Freehold for Sale in Corlim said...

Capitalism=Communism It never could be a marriage, anyway you look at China is a country of constant chaos.

The rice farmers will keep plowing the fields, shake their heads, and say to themselves we should have remained isolated and let the world do what the heck they wanted?

Anonymous said...


See how builders are exploiting the poor souls...

After spending money, you loose your sleep. You loose Is it worth it?

These legal headaches will make changing rental houses a breeze

http://www.lawyersclubindia.com/forum/display.asp?cat_id=11&forum_id=73

Paying guest in India said...

there is a bubble when there is increase in price even though its not needed. the price increases but the income of the people is doesn't increase. and after so much pumping of air in the bubble there comes a time when it finally bursts. and same thing has happened in China.
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Anonymous said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/realty-trends/property-prices-crash-30-as-buyers-hold-on-cash-till-election-verdict/articleshow/34750435.cms?curpg=3

Finally a crash!!

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Anonymous said...

Finally the word Crash popped up!

But when I see advertisements for apartments to lure the visitors with good looking female pictures in the dying bubble blog, that is "desperate broker index" for dire housing state.

Anonymous said...

Lol. True

Suresh said...

when the crash happens bears will start buying property.That is why these beautiful estate agents are advertising on bear sites.

Anonymous said...

India's real estate market has tanked, with prices dropping by as much as 30 per cent in the larger towns and unsold inventory piling up in both primary and secondary markets.


Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/34804909.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Anonymous said...


Property prices in India are controlled by the politicians ,builder and Mafia lobby. The multinational real estate consultants and the brokers also want their pound of flesh and they suck the house buyer who needs the shelter . The banks are equally responsible for the buyers plight as they do not enforce the builders to follow the due process of law and allow default buiders to go scotfree. Request the buyers not to fall in trap of the powerful cartel of Builders, Bankers,Brokers !!!!

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Anonymous said...

Bloggers:
What do you say would happen to RE prices in India with the new BJP Govt?

Anonymous said...

BJP has promised to build new cities with better infrastructure.

If they get the funding and start the projects, people find new places to invest/bet and that means competition to existing apartments in major cities will be less.

When prices in major cities fall, panic spreads. It is already happening.but people are hoping prices will go up after election. When they realize their last trump card failed, There will be an exodus out of real estate.

I have already watched TV programs where people crying for their mistake in real estate investment.
-----
Or if BJP wants to ease interest rate and help these pimps, a temporary oxygen will be given to real estate. But currency value will go down and that will call for S&P Junk rating.

This negative feedback will the death knell for the real estate.

Suresh said...

Nothing will change with a new BJP government.There is too much debt in the system and inflation is very high meaning less disposable income.The rising NPA of the banks has not got wide spread attention in the election atmosphere for the last one year.So the economy will continue to remain weak no matter who comes into power.What India needs is a an economic reset which means a crash in land values,wages and other costs of doing business.This process is already underway though the pace is rather slow.In conclusion houses prices will continue to deflate.A major economic shock from Western or Eastern world will accelerate the pace of deflation.The news out of China in recent times is not good.There is a good chance of an economic hard landing in China due to the current property market crash.This will cause a major slow down in world economic recovery.This will definetly impact indian real estate as well.So sit on the sidelines

Anonymous said...

Suresh bhai, Aadab.

You seem to have it right. The situation is so fucked up that either NDA or UPA, it has to crash. I think the new BJP Govt. will be like of Reagan/Volcker. BJP would make RBI to raise rates to control inflation, with very high rates the RE market will not only correct but tank. Secondly, BJP will spend a lot of money in infrastructure. Which means more jobs, controlled inflation, lower RE values but where will the money come from for infrastructure. The country would have to borrow more and more increasing the deficit which would mean rating downgrade for the country.

No way the stock market can survive. It is already overbought and would probably go down by 5-6K points in the next 6 months or so.

One nice thing that would happen with BJP is hopefully, the aam aadmi would see improved lives with lower inflation, lower RE values and more jobs.

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Anonymous said...

One nice thing that would happen with BJP is hopefully, the aam aadmi would see improved lives with lower inflation, lower RE values and more jobs.

"Lower Salaries Too Or A Freeze"

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REBear said...

One nice thing that would happen with BJP is hopefully, the aam aadmi would see improved lives with lower inflation, lower RE values and more jobs.

The housing bubble is the one and only cause, or symptom of the main cause, that NDA won a thumping majority. BJP now has a tuff choice to make, reinflate the housing bubble or deflate it. Both have good and bad consequences, but the latter would be good in the long term.

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Anonymous said...

reinflate the housing bubble or deflate it.

BJP has no choice but to slowly deflate the RE mess. It would be done very slowly. IF RE is not deflated, aam admi cannot afford houses and they will be voted out soon. Moreover, inflation would persist if interest rates are not raised abruptly by like 300-400 basis points.

I also don't see a lot of salary increases for the next 5 years. More free money in the system causes more inflation as more money chases the same goods and bid up value. Once inflation is contained, lot of stuff will fall in place. 2-3% inflation would be sustainable.

Biswas said...

Static house price means about 10% drop per year in real terms as the investment would have earned you 10% in the bank.That means price have dropped a minimum of 20% in last couple of years.Lot of investors are unaware of this fact.

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Anonymous said...

South China Morning Post
ECONOMY
Fitch sees mainland economy paying high price if property bubble bursts
Ratings agency says lack of transparency in reporting non-performing loans and doubts over official figures add to risk of credit crisis
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 11 June, 2014, 1:15am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 11 June, 2014, 11:47am
Jasper Moiseiwitsch jasper.moiseiwitsch@scmp.com

Analysts were apprehensive about an oversupplied property market in China. Photo: AFP

The bursting of China’s property bubble would wipe 1 per cent off mainland economic growth and cause serious problems for the nation’s banks, the ratings agency Fitch said yesterday.

“[Property] is our biggest macro concern in China. The fact there is such an overhang of supply … if the market were to collapse it would affect the economy and in turn banks,” Jonathan Cornish, Fitch’s head of north Asia banks, said at the agency’s global banking conference in Hong Kong.

He estimated that a property market downturn would take about 1 per cent off mainland gross domestic product growth rates.

Anonymous said...

“In Australia, leaders are struggling to replace revenue and jobs from a resources boom many people thought would last for years to come, based on the expectation that China’s heated growth would absorb ever higher amounts of resources for decades. Two years ago, real-estate agent Bella Exposito said she was selling as many as 25 houses a day as soaring coal prices lured workers and investors to this flyspeck Outback town. As of May this year, she has sold three.”

“Almost as quickly as it began, the boom stopped. Homes valued around a million Australian dollars are now lucky to get a bite at half that price, according to Ms. Exposito. About 300 of the town’s 4,000 privately owned houses are vacant, she says. Ashley Dowd, the manager of the Moranbah Community Workers Club, says it will take years to repay debts after his bar’s recent renovation. He receives job applications from residents laid off by local miners but says he is usually not able to provide much work, having cut his own staff to 15 from 20. ‘It will be batten-down-the-hatches and try and ride through this period the best we can,’ Mr Dowd said.”

“Former Reserve Bank of Australia board member Professor Warwick McKibbin has attacked the central bank for pushing official interest rates too low in a failed attempt to engage in the European, Japanese and US currency wars.

Anonymous said...

“The International Monetary Fund has found that there were 19 countries recorded with drops in prices, with the biggest decrease seen in India with a -9.1% drop year on year. In the IMF’s other calculations, Australia sits within the top five (with Belgium, Norway, New Zealand and Canada just ahead) in terms of house prices being above rents, as well as scoring in the top three (with Canada and Belgium taking out top spots) as continuing to be ‘out of reach of household incomes’.

“Deputy managing director for the IMF, Min Zhu, noted that house prices are inching up in the IMF blog. ‘But is this a cause for much cheer? Or are we watching the same movie again? Recall how after a decade-long boom, house prices started to fall in 2006, first in the United States and then elsewhere, contributing to the 2008-9 global financial crisis.

Anonymous said...

things have never been so bad for the real estate.there is not even a single buyer in the markets these days and everyone holding properties as investors are desperate to make an exit.this is the factual ground position in reality.investors and financiers are stuck with flats thinking they will make handsome gains but instead the demand for properties has evaporated and they are just keeping their fingers crossed that some Modi wave happens in the reality sector and they are able to exit.

Anonymous said...

Modi Wave:

From 1998 to 2004 there was a massive slump in RE prices. In fact prices started falling in 1996 itself under Dev Gowda of JD and kept the decline to 60% fall in RE prices till 2004. When Congress came again, they reversed the process by easy money and following western commands and other central banks to create speculative demand.

Now BJP is again in power and they would not let it go out of hands but control the nonsense that has been happening for the last 10 years. FOrget price rises, they would fall by 50-60% but slowly over the next 4-5 years.

Exit...Exit...Sell..Selll....

Anonymous said...

Warnings of crash in Australian market

June 13, 2014

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Australian bank officials of a possible housing market crash, as residential prices take the biggest monthly hit since 2009.

The IMF found that Australian property market was the second most expensive in the world, behind Belgium. “In the long run, the price of houses cannot stray too far from people’s ability to afford them,” they said.

They cautioned the central bank of Australia that fast-rising property prices could lead to a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, urging policy makers to avoid “benign neglect” of residential prices.

Anonymous said...

Canada's Housing Market Headed Into Long Slump: BMO 06/12/2014

Canada’s housing market will move into a protracted slump around 2018 thanks to shifting population patterns, the Bank of Montreal predicts in a new analysis.

Economist Robert Kavcic says Canada’s long-running housing boom has been held up by demographics. A large number of “echo boomers,” children of the baby boomer generation, are currently in the 25-34 age range when people buy first homes.

Anonymous said...

Bank of England given new powers to bust housing bubbles, "I am giving the bank new powers over mortgages including over the size of mortgage loans as a share of family incomes or the value of the house," said Mr Osborne


I hope Dr. Rajan is watching the worldwide news carefully and not blow up this RE bubble any further. He needs to raise interest rates drastically and not worry about the Growth. If RE crashes, there will be no Growth whatsoever for another decade. Rajan needs to carefully deflate this bubble over the next few years.

The party of easy money has to be over.

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Anil Kumar said...

It looks like inflation has no intention to come down.So high interest rate is going to stay or possibly go higher.Needless to say where the property market is headed.

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Anonymous said...

Newly built 11 floor apartment collapses due to "Rain and thunder" as reasoned by builder ( soon will be declared as natural calamity and not the fault of builders)

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/chennai-building-collapse-death-toll-climbs-to-17-many-still-trapped/482680-62-128.html

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Anonymous said...

Folks, Looks like we need to start this blog again.

Please post prices from your areas. I'm seeing a massive surge in inventory in the East Delhi area of Delhi, particularly Mayur Vihar, Noida area.

Nothing seems to be selling.

Make sure you low ball and if you really have to buy and negotiate the prices by 30-40%. A 1.4 crore flat can easily be bought today at under 1 crore as there are no buyers even at the 1 crore price.

Sumit Kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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Raj singh said...


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Anonymous said...

Looks like REIT is coming to India to keep the Reality prices high

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Anonymous said...

Updated: Aug 27 2014, 08:13 IST

Mumbai has maximum unsold flats at 2.13 lakh till June

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/-mumbai-has-maximum-unsold-flats-/1282698

Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has the maximum number of unsold inventory from previous years when compared with the top six real estate markets in India, showing that the demand from property buyers has not picked up as much in the most crucial real estate markets in India.
The region is having the poorest record of selling residential units against what it is launching year after year.

The city launched around 2.3 lakh residential units between 2012 and 2013, and has launched over 35,500 units more till June 2014, taking the total tally of launched units to nearly 2.7 lakh units in the last two and a half years. However, the demand and supply gap has led to a pile-up of 2,13,742 unsold units in maximum city as at the end of June 2014, according to the latest ‘India Real Estate Outlook’ report of global property consultants Knight Frank.

Anonymous said...

Aug 26, 2014, 06.17PM IST


MMR faces pile-up of unsold units, according to Knight Frank India report


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Business/India-Business/MMR-faces-pile-up-of-unsold-units-according-to-Knight-Frank-India-report/articleshow/40926874.cms

MUMBAI: The unabated demand-supply gap in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) residential market has created a pile-up of 2,13,742 unsold units, according to a Knight Frank India report released on Tuesday. The unsold inventory could take almost three years to sell.

The half-yearly analysis report, India Real Estate Outlook, analyses the residential and office market performance in MMR between January-June 2014.

Demand in the region dropped by a whopping 25% during this period in comparison with the same period last year. "Buyers continued to sit on the fence for the most part of H1 2014 in anticipation that the new and stable leadership at the Centre would revive the ailing economy," it said.

Anonymous said...


Looks like all the real estate brokers do not have any work these days. They can't find any customers to sell the highly inflated flats so they are busy spoiling this blog.
Their frustration and desperation is quite obvious !!!!

Anonymous said...

Pune August 26, 2014


Pune residential project launches down 11% in H1 2014: Report

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/residential-project-launches-down-11-in-first-half-knight-frank-india-114082600896_1.html

Demand-supply mismatch is impacting the fast growing real estate market in Pune. New residential launches at Pune in the first half of 2014 shrunk by 11 per cent compared with the corresponding period in 2013, said commercial and residential property consultancy agency, Knight Frank India.

According to Knight Frank’s first half-yearly analysis report ‘India Real Estate Outlook’, demand within the Pune residential market is expected to decrease from 38,800 units in 2013 to 34,500 units in 2014 representing a fall of 11 per cent.

The city is also expected to offload its excess unsold inventory in another six to nine months as the sales volume is to increase by 11 per cent to 19,800 units in the second half (H2) of 2014, compared to H2 2013. The sales volumes are expected to recover from second half of 2014 onwards after the lull of two years. However, the bumpy ride in demand and supply does not seem to have any significant impact on price levels.

Anonymous said...

AUG 27 2014.

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Companies/HawSLVQ92esK5nVJuowzGI/SC-asks-DLF-to-pay-Rs630-crore-fine-imposed-by-CCI.html?utm_source=copy


Supreme Court asks DLF to pay Rs630 crore CCI penalty


New Delhi/Bangalore: The Supreme Court on Wednesday ordered DLF Ltd, the country’s largest real estate developer, to pay the Rs.630 crore fine imposed on it by the antitrust regulator for alleged unfair business practices. DLF said it would comply with the order and pay the fine, pending a final decision by the apex court on an appeal filed by the realtor against the penalty on Wednesday. “We direct the appellant (DLF) to deposit the amount of Rs.630 crore in this court,” a bench comprising justices Ranjana Prakash Desai and N.V. Ramana said in its interim order. The bench said DLF will have to submit an undertaking to pay 9% interest on the penalty slapped on it by the Competition Commission of India (CCI) in a 12 August 2011 order that was later upheld in May this year by the Competition Appellate Tribunal (COMPAT). The court asked the realtor to pay an initial amount of Rs.50 crore and Rs.25 crore in interest within three weeks. The penalty will be deposited with the court in a nationalized bank, according to the order. The order adds to the pressure on debt-laden DLF, which has been battling a slowdown in the real estate market in the face of an economic downturn. As of June, DLF had debt of around Rs.18,500 crore.




Anonymous said...

The bubble is deflating big time. No buyers and sellers not reducing the price much. Next six months will see huge declines due to rising inventory.

Anonymous said...

NEW DELHI: Is India's real estate bubble finally bursting? The International Monetary Fund's recently-launched data series on global housing prices hints at that. Among 52 major markets for which IMF has collated house price data, India has witnessed the steepest fall.

Anonymous said...

Indian home prices fell most among 52 nations, IMF says

NEW DELHI: Is India's real estate bubble finally bursting? The International Monetary Fund's recently-launched data series on global housing prices hints at that. Among 52 major markets for which IMF has collated house price data, India has witnessed the steepest fall.

IMF's calculation on the annual percentage change in property prices shows that prices in India fell by 9.1 per cent, the highest among major real estate markets. The fall is even worse than in countries struggling with the ongoing European Union's financial crisis. Property prices in Greece, Italy, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal have all come down, but at a much slower rate. Ireland, on the other hand, registered a 4.3 per cent increase in housing prices.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Indian-home-prices-fell-most-in-52-nations-IMF-says/articleshow/41381802.cms



Prices came down by 7 per cent in Greece, 6.5 per cent in Italy, 4.9 per cent in Spain and 3.3 per cent in Portugal. The annual change is calculated for latest available data or prices for the last quarter of 2013.

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Anonymous said...


HC cancels allotment of 350 acre Haryana land to DLF

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbctv18-comments/hc-cancels-allotment350-acre-haryana-land-to-dlf_1169915.html?utm_source=ref_article



In a major blow to real estate firm DLF , the Punjab & Haryana High Court has cancelled the allotment of 350 acre land to the company by the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government in Haryana. The ruling comes a week after the Supreme Court had ordered DLF to pay Rs 630 crore penalty imposed by the competition watchdog CCI as a pre-condition for hearing the company's appeal.

According to sources, DLF is set to challenge the HC order citing that the company got the land parcel in an international competitive bidding process. Sources say that the land was initially meant for a recreation park. However, the Haryana government allowed DLF to develop the land for a golf course and residential apartments. Though it has not got the land yet, but DLF is learnt to have paid instalments for the Rs 1,750-crore bid, sources told CNBC-TV18, adding that the matter is also before the apex court on environment concerns.

Anonymous said...

I got three properties from 3 locations in Bangalore all purchased by my friends which have not appreciated over the last 1.5 years. First one is by DLR close to Hosur, 10kms from Electronic City, second one is on Harlur Road also a big project, third one is on OMR, 6 km's from KR PURAM station. Mid range project.

Co-incidence or a trend ?

Anonymous said...

It was stagnation which is followed by drop in prices. Tell your friend to get out before everyone becomes a seller.

Anonymous said...


Foreclosures are back — are they coming to your city?



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreclosures-are-back-are-they-coming-to-your-city-2014-09-11


-- USA --
The number of homes scheduled for foreclosure auction is rising — reversing a years-long trend.

According to data released Thursday by RealtyTrac, more than 51,000 properties were scheduled for foreclosure auction in August 2014. That makes this the first annual increase in scheduled foreclosures since the robo-signing controversy tainted the mortgage industry back in 2010, says Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac.

Scheduled foreclosure auctions increased in roughly half of all U.S. states, with Colorado (up 116%), Oregon (up 117%), Connecticut (up 81%), New York (up 81%) and Oklahoma (up 72%) leading the way. Blomquist says there are different reasons for upticks in foreclosure auctions in each state, but that the overarching reason is likely that banks are now processing distressed homes that have remained on their books for years. (There was a lot of pressure to deal with troubled homeowners fairly in the wake of the mortgage crisis, so many banks let homeowners who weren’t fully paying their bills stay in their homes for a long time.) “Banks are pushing these foreclosures through now,” he says.

Anonymous said...

Anyone here thinks raising interest in the USA will have adverse(read Good for buyers) effect in Indian realty?
Most of my friends, relatives who were on the fence for many years have bought properties much higher than they would have got couple of years. In the end Builders and Developers have won this 'Fence' war. What lies next? I am still on fence, and now hoping raising interest rate in the USE turn the tide to my side. Any optimist still lurking around this bog like me?

Anonymous said...

Anon above:

Raising of interest rates in US will first kill the stock market. The US, India and worldwide stocks will correct by like 30%. Then the USD will appreciate thereby making INR close to 68-70 per USD.

Indian RE never had any business to be in this higher range the way it is now. All speculation (banks and inv(f)estors) and easy printed money.

Bottomline is Indian RE will correct by 50-60% in the next 203 years. All people holding RE will become sellers with no buyers.

Even today there are hardly any buyers. A double whammy would be when banks don't lend easily and I wouldn't be surprised if one or two Indian banks fold down. How long can this nonsense really go? Most people are rich in India by doing nothing in life. Easy come, easy go.

Anonymous said...

Correction in above:

203=2-3 years.

aam aadmi said...

I don't know about other places but there is a definite lull in Bangalore market.

Jobs are scarce as there is a glut of engineers (most of whom are unemployable and require 2 years of training), there is also a glut of MBA's. I think the average fresher now makes less than an Auto Rickshaw driver. I would actually advise anyone graduating from a run of the mill engineering college to do carpentry as it fetches more money and you are your own master.

Prices haven't really gone up when accounting for inflation in past 1-1.5 years. Much better to rent as rents are still low compared to EMI's, but that may soon change given the inflation.

Anonymous said...

NCR is even worse than Bangalore. Freshers are getting salaries of 12-15K rupees per month. So much supply of Engineers and MBAs.

I wonder how could these new graduates buy these expensive flats/houses.

Except stocks, everything seems to be going down. Stocks will take a beating soon to correct by 5-6K points on Sensex. Too much manipulation by central banks all around the world.

aam aadmi said...

NCR is even worse than Bangalore. Freshers are getting salaries of 12-15K rupees per month. So much supply of Engineers and MBAs.

Wait for a few years, it's going to get even worse. All the soft jobs where you need humans like clerks, assistants, drivers, will get oursourced to machines. India's demographic dividend will turn into a demographic time bomb by then.

Anonymous said...

I know two IT folks who bought two properties very recently - one is away from Mumbai(even beyond Thane) for 70 lakhs, other guy bought for almost 2 crores. IT folks may be getting less when they start but they visit abroad and bring back dollars and helping builder lobby to pump up realty estate. I don't understand how come so called educated people do not understand fundamentals of the realty and believes in whatever is printed in the newspapers or realty expos.

Anonymous said...

People of India used to think that Gold prices will not go down to the level it is today from 34000/10gm from last year. Let's hope they learned some lesson and apply that lesson when they invest into realty. Building contractors to real estate brokers all make money till last year. What are they doing now when Market is in slack period?

Anonymous said...

South Delhi prices fall 20% in Q1. There are 3 more quarters to go.

The average housing price in Delhi-NCR has declined marginally by 2 per cent during April-June compared with the year-ago period due to slowdown in property market, according to a report by realty portal 99acres.

In its latest residential report for the second quarter of 2014 calendar year, the company said the real estate market is reeling under a demand slowdown due to high borrowing cost and lower GDP growth.

"The real estate landscape in the NCR region in the past quarter has seen stability with prices per square foot going down by 1 per cent in Q2-2014 (April-June) as compared over Q1 (Jan-March, 2014). The annual comparison shows a decline of 2 per cent in April-June 2014 over April-June 2013," 99 acres said in a statement.

In Delhi, housing prices in areas like Defence Colony and Sheikh Sarai fell by 20 per cent and 18 per cent respectively during April-June period compared with previous quarter. "Localities like Greater Kailash I and Vasant Vihar have also seen a decline of 11 per cent and 10 per cent in Q2-2014 over Q1-2014," the report said.

Anonymous said...

Real estate developers offer discounts to push sales

Discounts up to 15% expected this festive season; analysts expect Oct-Dec period to garner sales of at least 60k units across seven major cities

Anonymous said...

NEW DELHI: Housing sales dropped by 37 per cent in Delhi-NCR to nearly 28,500 units during the first six months of this year due to slowdown in the property market, real estate consultant Knight Frank said today.

Anonymous said...

Anon Above,

To be honest, we have been reading the slowdown/slowness in realty sector past many years. Builders/Developers give a damn about such reports when they know they can hold on the prices for quite a long time. Even the powerhouse like US saw housing prices going down from the last year, but India is altogether different country. After BJP announced 100 smart cities across India , I am sure our politicians now must be busy buying lands around thoese cities.

Anonymous said...

Nowadays it is easy to get jobs for 65-75 dollars per hour. compare this when rates were in the range of 55-60 couple of years ago.
After 9/11 IT took a beating and billing rate reduced from 80/hr to 50/hr. They went up by $70/hr in 2007 and economic downturn begins in the USA and billing rate took another beating.

By far this is the best time to work in the USA.
I have 20+ IT experience but I get only 130K in Virginia area whereas IT folks with 7-8 years getting the same amount in Texas for the same technology I worked in.

There are high chances these extra salary will be sent to India to invest more properties.

Nowadays Indians living abroad are not buying properties in India but INVEST to gain handsome returns in short time.

Anonymous said...

Where will BJP get money from to make 100 smart cities. India is already under a massive deficit and increasing that deficit will not help.

If you all think buying RE makes sense in India, go for it. I've been waiting for 5-6 years and would till it corrects. Renting has been a cheap option with no binding to one place for me.

Anonymous said...

State of the various global bubbles:

China - falling.
New Zealand/Australia, teetering. India - already down and falling. Canada, falling in all but a few major cities.
London, panic is spreading.
A disaster is coming in Turkey and Dubai, and it’s no secret. Singapore, falling.
Malaysia, headed down.
Brazil, the same. Etc.

aam aadmi said...

Renting has been a cheap option with no binding to one place for me.

Renting is a very good option, esp if you are buying on EMI and the prices aren't going up.

Anonymous said...

I have 20+ IT experience but I get only 130K in Virginia

That is good money. Enjoy it. Don't worry about what younger folks are making.

The salaries in US are tied to market rate. If you do a PhD in say Finance from a top 25 Finance Univ in US, the starting salary for Assistant Professor is around $220-240K USD. You will find that professors who teach these freshly minted PhDs in many cases make less than their students even after 20-30 years of service.

Same is with doctors. A fresh doctor in say Internal Medicine would start at $200K. A doctor with 10 years of experience maybe earning the same.

To get raises, people jump to other companies and get raises.

You can do the same, but why???If you are happy and comfortable with family, enjoy your money and think of retirement.

Anonymous said...

‘China’s bad loans threaten to bust world economy’

‘China is even more reliant on exports than Japan was in the 1990s, and its all-important property market now “may be tipping over.”

‘What concerns Kamiyama and Cui is the lack of bold action in Beijing at a time when the scale of Chinese bad debt may be higher than Japan’s ever was; they believe non-performing loan ratios are “significantly into double-digit” territory. In the first half of this year, the analysts estimate, commercial banks had to book larger non-performing loan liabilities than for all of 2013.’

‘China’s leaders refuse to blink as economy slows drastically’

Anonymous said...

Cuse for a bubble:
‘Too much money chases limited investment opportunities, which drives down the investment return of safe assets, motivating investors to chase risky investments that promise higher returns. Many investors gradually lose their sense of risk aversion and greed takes over.’

Anonymous said...

‘The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center warned that the world economy might plunge into another recession in 2015 that will take down the U.S. economy with it. Levy economists, who use the profits perspective forecasting model developed by Jerome Levy in 1908, have accurately predicted every major financial event in the past few decades, including the 2008 financial crisis, which many mainstream economists said was unforeseeable.’

‘The Levy Center says policymakers and commentators are not paying attention to a key trend in the global economy: the fall of investment expenditure in emerging market economies.’

Anonymous said...

Reporting on the Lehman disaster on September 16, 2008, the World Socialist Web Site noted that it marked “a new stage in the convulsive crisis of American capitalism.”

The WSWS continued: “A sea change is unfolding in the US and world economy that portends a catastrophe of dimensions not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” It warned that for the working class, the financial meltdown meant “rapid growth of unemployment, poverty, homelessness and social misery,” while “many of those who precipitated this economic disaster… will profit handsomely from the debris they have left behind.”

That analysis has been entirely confirmed. Six years on, the world economy has not only failed to recover, it is experiencing continued stagnation, with the ever-growing threat of a new financial crisis. In the euro zone, economic output has yet to reach the levels it attained in 2007; Japan stands once again on the brink of recession; and Chinese economic expansion is faltering. The growth rate in the US economy is now 16 percent below that of 2005–2007, with cumulative output losses totalling about 80 percent of gross domestic product.

But despite stagnation in the real economy, stock markets have hit record highs, boosted by the provision of ultra-cheap cash from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to the financial institutions and banks responsible for the crisis—a continuation of the policy initiated in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman collapse.

For the working class all over the world, the past six years have brought lower wages, rising social inequality and outright impoverishment. In the United States, median family incomes fell by 5 percent in real terms between 2010 and 2013, supposedly years of “recovery.”

Anonymous said...

Even RBI Governor: Rajan is saying a CRASH is coming:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/why-rbi-governor-raghuram-rajan-may-be-right-about-a-crash/articleshow/42652757.cms

aam aadmi said...

"In the United States, median family incomes fell by 5 percent in real terms between 2010 and 2013, supposedly years of “recovery"

It's actually more than 5 percent, inflation figures are a sham in US, they don't take into account food and fuel, the two most important requirements of life.

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Anonymous said...

I tend to disagree when people say Income has not risen in the USA. When I look around at least in IT situation is far better than 2008 and comparatively better salary packages. Layoffs are vanished, restaurants are crowded, families are visiting places on long weekend etc says that situation has improved a lot in the USA. Surprisingly Housing has not gone up because of tightening lending rules. It is a matter of time for FED to increase the rate. The class that have been a feeder for Indian realty is in good position now compare to the uncertain period of 2009-12. Fortunately these NRIS are not aggressively buying properties like they did in 2005-2010. I am not sure if this class has lot interest in Indian realty or waiting for the correction.

Anonymous said...

Waiting for correction.

Also, US is seeing a big Tech bubble right now. As soon as tightening starts in US, layoffs will follow. 2015 would see it all.

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aam aadmi said...

I tend to disagree when people say Income has not risen in the USA

You are right but the other poster is right as well. Incomes have only risen for the top quarter. Median wages have fallen which means that income inequality is rising. This trend has been accelerating for past 30 years.

USA is on it's way to becoming the third world.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/4/median-wage-stagnationincomeinequality.html

Anonymous said...

"USA is on it's way to becoming the third world"

I don't think so. People here understands what economy is. They are the same people who order Large drink in McDonald even when they could order small and go for unlimited refills. Inventions are the backbone of First world economies. Not inviting Chinese/Japanese to the country for investment.
If there is one country where you can blindly invest is still is the US of A.
Alibaba would not have come to USA to raise 20 billions if US is on the way to become Third world.

Anonymous said...

Goldman’s Former Head Of Housing Research Predicts US Housing Crash, Recession Within Three Years

http://tinyurl.com/ndfj4tj

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