Stock market correction triggers property downturn

Pune, February 2 The recent stock market meltdown has fuelled speculation of a slowdown in the city real estate because of a perceived liquidity crunch. Real estate consultants say cancellations, if they happen, would occur in the investor and speculator segment of the real estate market that comprise 20 per cent of buyers in the city.

“Some cancellations have already begun. After the stock market fell, a private developer reported five cancellations on NIBM road from clients who had lost money in the market,” said Ravi Varma, president of the Estate agents association of Pune (EAAP).

“Typically, profits booked in the markets are invested in real estate. However, builders are least likely to own up to cancellations, as it will further affect their stocks, if they are listed. Developers think that they can talk up the market,” he said. Varma added, however, that cancellations due to stock crash are very small and not likely to exceed two to three per cent of the real estate market.

Last week’s crash from around 22,000 points to around 18, 000 on Friday was responsible for wiping out nearly Rs 2 lakh crore, Rs 1.5 lakh crore of which was lost on the first day.

Deepak Kunjeer was one real estate consultant who admitted that the land market was headed towards a slump. “In the past two to three months, the sales have come down by half. This is especially true of areas like Kharadi, Wagholi, Kondhwa and Hadapsar. The same plots have been on sale for the last few months. Properties have not been moving or changing hands,” he said.

Kunjeer said the pre-budget months were normally slow and coupled with a global slowdown in the offing, a cascading effect is likely in six months’ time. “There is a 99 per cent chance of a correction happening unless there is something miraculous in store in the budget with major policy decisions in infrastructure and power sectors or in the case of allowing FDI funds,” he said.

However, most city developers dismissed the notion of mass real estate cancellations due to the stock market drop saying that they dealt only with “genuine buyers” and did not deal with the speculator community.

Some others said it was too early to say if the stock market effect would spiral down to real estate stagnation. “The effect, if any, will take at least three months to be visible in the market. Even if investors have lost money, their first reaction is rarely to cancel their real estate purchase,” said Manish Jain, Kumar Properties.

This trend is likely only in the high-end segment and not the middle class, or the working class who do not have a “risk taking appetite”. Irrespective of the sensex, the last three months have been slow and real estate consultants agree that prices have been on the upswing without any perceived value addition. This coupled with the pre-budget jitters and the law of averages makes a slump inevitable, they said.

The last real estate stagnation took place in 1996, which lasted for almost five years. In the ensuing boom, the last three years has seen real estate prices more than triple. The complementing growth in the economy, especially the IT players and now recently the manufacturing sector, encouraged developers to cater more to the high end segment.

“But now developers are resorting to raising prices arbitrarily. In the last two months, projects across the city have seen prices rise by Rs 500 per sq ft for no reason. Effectively, this puts a lot of property out of reach for the middle class segment,” said Mukesh Charbhe, real estate agent working in NIBM are Sopan Baug areas.

“Compared to December, January has been a slow month. There is definitely a 25 per cent reduction in sales. But there should be a correction as prices have been increasing randomly without justifying a rise,” he said.

Another hypester on CNBC

It seems like this gentleman has a vested interest in some Mumbai real estate companies. If you look around Mumbai there are hundreds of towers under construction with most of them not being sold. These hired guns are responsible for hyping the market without any fundamentals. As for Chennai and other cities prices are still around 3-5k per sq/ft. In Mumbai we are taking of 8k+ on average. If other cities dont have purchasing power, how come Mumbai is different. Apart from the business community Mumbai is full of lower income neighborhoods. All you need to do is take the train and look at the mass number of people 10-15% of whom can afford the high prices. For the rest its life as usual in lower quality homes and shanties. Its high time these hype creating analysts are bought down to earth


Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Nalin Kumar of JM Financial said that markets like Mumbai will continue to see an upward bias in pricing. He added that tier III cities and Chennai will see price correction.

Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Nalin Kumar:

Q: We been speaking to the industry majors at large over the last couple of days and the overall sense is that with interest rates peaking off, prices could actually remain stable to slightly see a negative buys? Is that something that you concur with?

A: I largely concur with that it is more a function of the markets; some markets will see a negative in price and there are some markets, which will actually stay stable and certain markets like Bombay actually may continue to witness upward buyers.

Q: The more important in shadow on the Bombay realistic market could come from the Bombay Stock Exchange markets, the fact that they have sagged a bit and at least about 15-20% of their highs and it is not improbable that they could go down again. In such a scenario do you think that there could repercussions even in hot markets like Bombay?

A: I think Bombay is largely driven by the fact that there isn’t adequate supply at each level in the market. So Bombay will still do well. Having said that, if the stock market continues to remain weak or stagnating, people may use profits from one market to offset losses from another markets and that could have an impact on the real estate prices. But it really requires a sustained two-three month downtrend for this to happen. It won’t happen if markets are down and are weak and then come right backup.

Q: Could you give us some of the cities that you see a price correction in and consequently even a price appreciation in metros or in B or C cities?



A: In my opinion, Tier III cities will see the fastest decline in prices once real estate starts correcting. In terms of other cities, which have run-up fairly and rapidly, we have Chennai which is run-up fairly, quickly and that could see a correction. In north, NCR region has a lot of supply coming on and that could see a correction, of course the Tier II, Tier III cities like Chandigarh etc. have equal levels of pressure coming on them.



Q: What are the reasons that you expect corrections? Is it an oversupply issue? Why do you think the real estate market is headed for a correction in certain quarters?



A: There are multiple factors again which would bring the real estate markets to the correct levels. First of all and the most important in my mind is what the pricing is for the end user and many of these properties are now getting out of reach of the end user that it was designed for. So if we leave out the extremely premium end of properties, I think many of them which may have earlier being priced at a Rs 50 lakh price range are now worth a crore and so the end user kind of moves away and he can’t buy.



The second thing is there is too much investment into land, there is a lot of construction that is proposed to come up and once the supply eventually hits the market, you will see a significant stabilization in prices.

Q: One last word on this spate of IPOs that are starting to reemerge in the real estate segments specifically with regard to Emaar that they have to revise its price band to a little lower. Do you think some of these companies may be coming out of aggressive valuations at this point of time given the kind of momentum that the stocks have actually seen?

A: My sense is that eventually the market will find the right price point for capital raising exercises. Now the fact that a lot of real estate companies are looking to raise capital is reflective of the fact that they need to have cash on their balancesheets because hard times maybe ahead. They may have looked at aggressive valuations and the market has not been happy with those valuations and therefore they are coming back with valuations, which are slightly lower than what they had ideally been hoping for achieving.

Q: Do you think real estate prices in Bombay will stabilize or inch up?

A: I think the supply in Bombay is low and visible supply for the next 12-months continues to remain low and I feel that prices will stay static to rise upwards. I think it’s difficult for Bombay to drop dramatically.

Loan rates cut . Expect more cuts in the near future

With the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 1.25% over the past 3 weeks, RBI will be forced to follow suit and cut by atleast 0.5 to 0.75. I expect the loans rates to go down to 9.75 floating in the near future. Its best for borrowers to wait few more months for the RBI to cut rates before jumping the gun. Housing supply is abundant so the builders are in no hurry to raise prices, rather one can negotiate upto 10-15% and I think they will oblige if you are willing to write a check the right next moment

Times has the article on HDFC cutting loans

MUMBAI: Finally there is good news for people who have taken a loan with a floating interest rate to buy their dream homes. HDFC, the leader in the home finance business, has decided to cut interest rates on floating rate home loans for all its existing customers by 25 basis points. With the leader cutting rates, the market expects it will be only a matter of time before other players follow.

On Thursday, HDFC said it would cut its retail prime lending rate (RPLR) — the rate to which all its interest rates are benchmarked — by 25 basis points to 13.75% per annum from the 14% earlier. The cut is effective from February 1. It has, however, kept its floating rate for new customers unchanged at 10.25%.

This means all HDFC floating rate customers will see a cut in rates by a quarter of a percentage point. However, the effective date for each will vary. "The advantage of a cut in RPLR will accrue to all the existing floating rate customers over the next three months based on their respective reset dates," HDFC said in a release.

The other major players in the sector are ICICI Bank and SBI. ICICI Bank is still to take a decision on revising its housing loan rates. A top ICICI Bank official said its decisions on home loan rates were based on its cost of funds. "We will continue to watch the market closely." Till Thursday evening, SBI had not taken any decision on home loan rates.

GST in chennai is the new destination

Hot property: Property developers are focussing on the area adjoining GST Road as infrastructure is much better and connectivity to the city by road and rail is of good quality.

The population influx towards GST Road is set to touch several lakhs, property developers predict.

The new residential projects follow on the heels of announcements of several Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in the area.

Among the new Special Economic Zones are one proposed for Information Technology companies and one for renewable energy generation equipment.
Despite complaints that infrastructure within the Maraimalai Nagar township, proposed as a satellite city to the metropolis, is not up to the mark, property continues to be bought and sold in and around the area.

Annai Builders, dealing with property in Maraimalai Nagar, had bought 50 acres in the township. Some 560 plots have been sold, representatives of the company said.
Another 560 plots would be coming up in the area. Most of these would be residential, while some land could be put to commercial use, they speculated.

Property development in the area is significantly on the increase. Land prices are currently Rs. 200 per square foot and are set to increase, they add. Information Technology companies are also moving to the locations around GST Road since it possesses excellent connectivity and more affordable housing and office space, builders say.

The new Information Technology Special Economic Zone coming up at Madurantakam, for instance, would bring in at least 30,000 new people, believes P. Suresh, Managing Director, L&T Arun Excello Realty. The Mahindra World City already houses several Information Technology companies including Infosys and Accenture, points out Hari Nagaswaran, Executive Vice Chairman, Hallmark Infrastructure.

They have also launched an integrated township project at Vallanchery with housing units priced upwards of Rs. 55 lakh.
There are about 650 apartments in the first phase and more than half have been booked, Mr. Suresh says.
The integrated township would be offering several facilities, including a Vidya Mandir School that would prioritise admission of residents in the township.
“We were initially unsure what the response to an integrated township would be,” he recalls, adding the response has been very good with people expressing a preference for easy access to all facilities at walking distance.
The township would include hotels, landscaping, a water body and green surroundings, he promises.
There is plenty of room for more players in the area, Mr. Suresh believes. The Special Economic Zones are likely to act as an engine of growth in the area, bringing in more infrastructure and housing projects. The Old Mahabalipuram Road boom is over, says Mr. Nagaswaran confidently.
The region is too crowded and property prices are dropping. A lot of office space in the corridor is vacant, he finds. While government officials believe that the Old Mahabalipuram Road would see a lot of activity once the remaining phases of work are completed, property developers with special interests in the GST Road feel otherwise.
There is an increasing focus on GST Road area as infrastructure is much better and connectivity to the city through road and rail of good quality, he believes. Mr. Suresh echoes the belief. Suburban trains ensure that commuters can reach, say, Parry’s Corner in 50 minutes, while the same journey by road would take up to two hours, he says. This makes the location ideal for those with a spouse who might have to commute into the city, while their place of work is nearby
.

Insane housing prices in Mumbai

I came across the table of values from the site http://www.narains.com/rates.htm and its astounding to see prices in Mumbai keep on escalating over the past few years. Certain areas like Santacruz have seen in prices triple in the past 3 years. I'm not able to figure out how many transactions take place at these prices. At these rates a 2 bed room apt measuring 1000 sq/ft could go for over 15M to 30M rupees in an A grade building. With 40 rupees to a dollar we are taking about 400-900$ per sq/ft. With these prices I could very well purchase in New York ..., not speak of other places in the US

Location

'A' Grade Bldg.

'B' Grade Bldg.

'C' Grade Bldg.

Cuffe Parade / Colaba	Rs.35,000 - 60,000*	Rs. 22,000 - 30,000	Rs. 15,000 - 18,000
Marine Drive / Nariman Point	Rs. 40,000 - 50,000 (NCPA Only)	Rs. 20,000 - 25,000	Rs. 15,000 - 18,000
Malabar / Cumballa Hill	Rs. 35,000 - 60,000*	Rs. 22,000 - 30,000	Rs. 15,000 - 18,000
Napean Sea / Warden Rd.	Rs. 35,000 - 60,000*	Rs. 22,000 -30,000	Rs. 15,000 - 20,000
Worli	Rs. 30,000 - 40,000*	Rs 16,000 - 22,000	Rs.12,000 - 16,000
Prabhadevi	Rs. 18,000 - 22,000	Rs. 13,000 - 18,000	Rs. 10,000 - 12,000
Bandra	Rs. 18,000 - 30,000	Rs. 13,000 - 18,000	Rs. 11,000 - 12,000
Khar / Santacruz	Rs. 16,000 - 18,000	Rs. 12,000 - 16,000	Rs. 8,500 - 10,000
Juhu	Rs. 16,000 - 20,000 (Sea facing)	Rs. 9,000 - 11,000	Rs. 8,000 - 9,000
Lokhandwala / Versova	Rs. 9,000 - 14,000	Rs. 6,500 - 9,000	Rs. 5,000 - 5,500
Powai	Rs. 9,000 -11,000	Rs. 6,000 - 8,000	Rs. 4,500 - 5,500

Mumbai Property rates per sq.ft. Updated as on 5th Jan 2008

Township craze in Chennai

Realty vendors have unleashed their marketing hounds to make a killing in selling township dreams in this southern city. Capitalizing on the IT boom on Old Mahabalipuram road (OMR as its called inspite of the new name Rajiv Gandhi IT highway) leading players like DLF, L&T and Hiranandani have launched super-sized projects of over 2000 apartments each in the vicinity of OMR. The results have been spectacular as people are rushing in to buy apartments in case the miss out on the launch price specially with DLF and L&T. The other existing players of Chennai like Jains, Arihant too seemed to have launched projects there though the hype made by the national developers is going to drive national attention to a place known for its temples and saltpans. The developments around OMR too merit some attention with IT bigwigs making a bee-line to setup their captive centers on both sides of the road. With TCS/Infosys/Wipro and others having commissioned big campuses, its a matter of time that this place is buzzing with activity. One hopes the road is fixed up and becomes a true national highway. For what its worth the prices are below. Beware prices change faster then you can say "Sarvana Bhavan"

1) Hiranandani Upscale – 800 increased. – Rate 4100/sqft - Apr 07 - 3600 - went upto 4400
2)Purava Swan Lake - 650 increased. Rate 3600/sqft - Rs.2950
3)Purava Windermere - Rate 2790/sqft Not launched yet
4)L&T South City – Is it new? Is this the start rate? - Rate 3600/sqft
5)L&T Estancia - 550 increased. Rate 3500/sqft - rs 2950 Apr 2007
6)Mantri Synergy - Rate 3700/sqft
7)Chettinad Enclave (villa) - Too much - Rate 4250/sqft - Rs.1975 in Oct 2005
8)DLF Township - 400 increased. Rate 3200 / sqft- Rs2800 2 weeks ago..
9) Lancor in clasic - 1300 increased. Rate 4100, year ago Rs 2800/sqft
10) Akshya
11) Olympia Opaline
12) City Square
13) Aharihant Heirloom
14) Jain Iselin - ??? starting price rs.2900 in Apr 07

Bangalore builders set to ruin Chennai outskirts

Rising prices in the real estate sector in Bangalore, the IT capital of the country has turned the attention of several realtors to Chennai, a city which is slowly but surely set to beat Bangalore in the real estate space.
Experts point out that Bangalore is becoming crowded and there is hardly any space for new construction. Moreover due to the demand and supply mismatch, a large number of apartments are lying vacant.
Realtors point out that there were plans to slash the prices of the apartments, but they realised that it was not a feasible option as huge amounts of money had been invested. Builders however may reduce the prices marginally to ensure that the apartments are sold.
Keeping this scenario in mind, several builders are shifting base to Chennai. There is plenty of land available in the outskirts of the city and there is no mismatch in the demand and supply in Chennai, realtors point out.


Builders also have in mind the fact that several IT and automobile giants are shifting base to Chennai. Thanks to this, there would be more demand for apartments in the city, realtors point out.
Builders say that they have been assured of more infrastructure in Chennai compared to Bangalore. In Bangalore, people are scared to invest in certain areas such as Hosur road and Koramangala due to the chaotic traffic. On working days, one would have a three-hour battle with the traffic to reach home.


However, the scene is different in Chennai. The city is better planned and the traffic is well managed. Constructing apartments in a 20-kilometre radius of the city would not be a bad deal as the travel time is negligible thanks to the excellent management of traffic.
Purvankara builders are moving into Chennai in a big way. The firm is constructing 2072 apartments at Pallikarani in Chennai. The builders feel that Chennai is a better bet at the moment thanks to infrastructure available in the city.
In Chennai, builders expect their apartments to be sold off faster compared to Bangalore as there is a huge difference in the prices. In Bangalore, where there is a synthetic pricing, apartments are being sold at Rs 10,000 per square foot, while in central Chennai, the prices are Rs 5000 per square foot.
Builders see Chennai as an emerging market when compared to Bangalore. The prices are affordable in comparison to the unrealistically high prices in Bangalore. With more realtors shifting to Chennai, the city is set to beat Bangalore in the real estate race. But will Chennai go the Bangalore way? Only time would tell.

Congress blames SEZ lobby for Goa crisis

The SEZ lobby is strong enough to topple governments.

The Congress leadership here on Friday launched hectic efforts to save the Digambar Kamat government in Goa amidst serious charges that the powerful SEZ lobby was attempting to destablise and install an alternate dispensation with the help of three defiant NCP MLAs.

Kamat, who reached here on Friday afternoon with party MLAs, attended meetings convened by Congress president Sonia Gandhi as well as the NCP leadership, who was trying to win back the three errant MLAs. The Goa chief minister had managed to tide over an embarrassing situation in the state Assembly on Thursday, but events took a fresh turn after the three NCP MLAs refused to give their support to him.

"We met Gandhi and briefed her about the political situation in Goa. We discussed the situation. Now we will talk to NCP leaders again and a solution will be found," Kamat told reporters. The AICC had earlier in the day, put the blame squarely on the "SEZ lobby" for the crisis, as party leaders suggested that it would be a miracle if the government could be saved.

Economic times turns to Astrologers to predict the future

Realty market may see major growth till April '08

NEW DELHI: Circa 2007 may have been an extended joyride for investors, but the stars spell a word of caution during 2008. And the general feeling among the cross-section of astrologers that SundayET spoke to was that while the first half of the year would be good for investors, the next half could be a bit choppy in parts due to unfavourable changes in planetary positions.

The idea behind the interaction with the astrologers was to get a sense of the investment outlook for stocks, real estate and commodities. On the brighter side, the year 2008 would symbolise leadership, dominance and position of authority for the economy. Aura reader S Bhattacharya foresees a positive outlook for the real estate sector. But he doesn’t rule out a few hitches either.

“The sector will continue to be strong till August 17 in Delhi and surrounding areas. But there will be a 18-20% decline post that. Prices are expected to be weak in all other areas, except for Mumbai and Goa, which will continue to remain strong. The bubble burst may happen in February 2009 but there is still room for optimism for real estate in 2008.”

Unlike last year, when the stockmarket threw up surprises with the Sensex touching the magical figure of 20,000, leading numerologist Sanjay B Jumaani predicts that the bourses will take a beating after June next year. “Gold is yellow just like the sun and can have a field year.

Real estate will continue to march upwards though the pace could reduce. In stocks, after August 15, India will enter its 62nd year and 62 adds up to 8 of Saturn. This does not favour stocks but it does favour real estate, farming and steel. One should also be careful about treading in commodities after August 15.”

His logic is that the year 2008 adds up to the number 1, which represents the sun and creative forces that give light and life. It symbolises leadership, dominance and position of authority.

Agrees astrologer Anurag Tripathi, “with the planetary position changing subsequent to June 2008, the financial markets will be hit. The market will end up in the range of 24,000 to 25,000 points in 2008.” According to him, the major astrological implications on the markets will be seen in December 2009 when the position of Saturn will change.

He expects a huge fall in December 2009 onwards and sees the market ending up from where it started its bull run. Leading US-based astrologer Ashok Motiani, however, feels that Sensex will touch the 21,000 mark before April-end 2008.

He anticipates a decline from May onwards, a trend likely to continue for several months. “There will be a major correction during this period. This correction is likely to be caused by liquidity squeeze, not only in India but all over the world.”

Mega IPOs and FIIs may have left the real estate sector smiling in the spotlight during 2007, but Motiani sees possibility of a mild correction next year. “Saturn has been transiting in Leo since July 16, 2007 and will continue to transit till September 10, 2009. During this period, real estate in India is likely to slow down. Prices will stop rising that’s for sure,” he says.

According to yet another astrologer Kewal Anand Joshi, the real estate market will see substantial gains till April 2008. He forecasts a downfall from April 15-July as there will be decline in foreign buying interest. “The market will be normal from September-December but ups and downs will exist,” he feels. For the yellow metal, the upward journey may continue as Joshi foresees it reaching Rs 12,000 in the New Year.

Gold scaled new highs with the price for 10 gms zooming to Rs 10,000 in 2007. Bhattacharya also cautions against a rise in petrol prices in 2008. “Prices will continue to rise in the commodities market. Agricultural items will also be expensive,” he says.

So while punters are dreaming of stronger positions on Dalal Street, it could be the gold-diggers who will have the last laugh on their way to the bank. After all, that’s what the stars have to say.

Record Slum TDR Rate in Mumbai

Another record was created in the city's real estate industry on Wednesday when slum TDR or transfer of development rights belonging to the Maharashtra housing and area development authority (Mhada) fetched an all-time high price of Rs 3,275 a sq ft. This is the first time that the rate of slum TDR has gone up so high, ever since it was introduced by the state government a decade ago.

In Mumbai's construction industry, slum TDR certificates are the equivalent of the stocks of blue-chip companies. They are generated when the developerowner surrenders his land to the government or agrees to rehouse slumdwellers or project-affected persons free of cost. In turn, he is issued a TDR certificate that gives him additional construction rights in the suburbs, but only to the north of the plot he has surrendered.

The latest stock of slum TDR came from a state government company, Shivshahi Purnavasan Prakalp Ltd (SPPL), which has been entrusted with the task of constructing low-cost houses to rehouse projectaffected persons.

Recently, Mhada had invited bids for about 8,000 sq m of slum TDR which was generated by a SPPL project in Turbhe near Mankhurd. When bids were opened on Wednesday, Swastik Realty quoted Rs 3,275 a sq ft for about 2,000 sq m of slum TDR. The remaining stock was purchased by Mantri Realty at Rs 3,250 a sq ft and another investment company, which paid Rs 3,204 a sq ft. It fetched Mhada Rs 28 crore.

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What makes this stock of slum TDR lucrative is its use in prime areas like Bandra (west). This is because Mankhurd, where the slum TDR has been generated, falls south of Bandra on the map.

Mhada sources told TOI that till a few days ago, the price of slum TDR was around Rs 2,800 a sq ft. Wednesday's record price is an indication about the demand for slum TDR. But such high rates is bad news for flat purchasers as it has a direct impact on the final price of an apartment. Residential property prices are already at a record high, and only a certain high income class of citizens can actual afford to buy a home in Mumbai today.

Builders have reaped a bounty ever since the concept of slum TDR was introduced by the state government a decade ago. They have gone on a construction spree, especially in the congested western suburbs between Bandra and Andheri. Activists have criticised this policy on the grounds that it puts a further load on the already stretched infrastructure in the suburbs. Critics call it transfer of disaster rights.

Virtually all construction activity in the suburbs is today carried out with the aid of slum TDR, which the builder can load on his project as additional floor space index (FSI) to construct additional floors. For instance, if the FSI in the suburbs is restricted to 1, the developer can load a maximum of FSI 1 on his project by buying slum TDR from the market.

Property boom not yet over

New areas are fertile territory for investment.

BANGALORE: While the stamps and registrations department on Friday gave its official stamp to the real estate slump in the city, realtors indicated a potential boom in areas outside the traditional hotspots like Electronics City and Devanahalli.

And according to the city’s realtors, now is the time to invest.

Prices near Electronics City, Bommasandra and ITPL have gone through the roof and returns on investment here could take long.

“The problem with the sellers in these areas is that they quote unrealistic prices ,” says C Venkatesh, a realtor from Yelahanka.

And for those who have invested huge sums on sites here, the only hope is an up-and-running Bangalore International Airport and the proposed expressway connecting it.

“It is advisable for prospective buyers to now zero in on housing sites at Singapura and its surroundings. Land is available at Rs 1,000 a sq ft adjacent to main the road and Rs 800 a sq ft in the interiors.

So there is no sense is looking at ‘distant’ Devanahalli when cheaper sites are there for the asking closer to Bangalore,” explains C Mallikarjun, a realtor.

And with areas like Chikka Madura, Hesaraghatta, Peenya Dasarahalli, Laxmipura, Abbigere in Bangalore West and Doddaballpur, Vijayapura, Chikballapur, Attur, Singapura in North, the proposed infrastructure facilities will lead to rapid appreciation, say realtors.

“I bought a site at Rs 250 per sq ft two years ago. It can now fetch me Rs 1,000 a sq ft and is only set to go north. I now wish I had bought more sites two years ago. The same can’t be said of Hoody. I bought land at Rs 1,000 a sq ft six months ago. I have no buyer for this property today,” rues B Manjunath of Abbigere.

The scene, it seems, is similar with flats. Again, there must be due diligence before the final decision. Realtors say areas like Kaggadasapura, Vignananagar, Basavanagar, GM Palya and Nagavara, where new projects are coming up, are worth a look.

And with smaller builders, while it is necessary to read the fine print carefully, one can haggle on the price to one’s advantage, says a realtor.

Infosys acquires land for second campus in B'lore

Government lends no hand to software giant.

The country’s second largest software exporter by revenue, Infosys Technologies Limited, has acquired 300 acres of land near Sarjapur off Bangalore to develop its second campus in the city.

This is the first time that the company has acquired land on its own without seeking the assistance of the state government’s land acquisition agency, Karnataka Industrial Area Development Board (KIADB).

“We bought the land directly from the owners for prevailing market prices. At present, the process of conversion of the land use pattern is in progress. We expect the entire process to be completed in the coming days,” Mohandas Pai, Member of the Board and Director (Human Resources, Education, Research and Administration), Infosys, told Business Standard.

Since 2004, all successive state governments had been sitting on Infosys’ application for additional land to expand campus in the city. When the JD (S) was in power, its chief H D Deve Gowda had even questioned the need for additional land. Since the issue took a political turn, Infosys decided to go ahead with the land acquisition on its own.

Pai said the company was yet to work out the plan for the second campus. “Once the land conversion is sanctioned, we will work on the design for the campus. It will be a long term project and an ongoing process,” he added.

The company intends to freeze the number of employees in Bangalore to 25,000 by the end of the fiscal. At present, Bangalore, which is the company’s largest centre, has 21,293 seats. Another 3,787 seats are being added in Bangalore to take the total headcount to 25,080 by March.

“We are taking space for 3,787 seats from a private firm on lease. It is our intention to cap the Bangalore centre at 25,000. The growth will stagnate in Bangalore and the focus will be on other centres. We are also planning to add 5,000 seats to the existing 5,434 seats in Mysore,” Pai said.

In the coming days, Pune will emerge as the largest centre for the company. At present, it employs 11,901 employees in Pune. Infosys is ramping up capacity in Pune to add 11,782 seats. “Pune will have in excess of 26,000 seats in the coming days. Our intention is clear. We want to grow in all other centres.”

The company, which employs 9,430 personnel in Hyderabad, has been allotted an additional 447 acres of land in the city. “The land was allotted to us in the third quarter of 2007-08. We intend to start work on the campus soon,” Pai said.

Infosys had a total seating capacity of 70,321 as of December 31, 2007. It intends to add another 29,791 seats in the coming months for which work is under progress.

They include 636 in Bhubaneshwar (existing is 3,300); 2,216 in Chandigarh (existing is 3,900); 5000 in Chennai (existing is 8,966); 1,000 in Gurgaon (existing is 195); 3,200 in Jaipur (existing is 890); 1,600 in Mangalore (existing is 3,275) and 220 in Thiruvananthapuram (existing is 1,337).

Selling a luxury home isn't about the space, it is about the lifestyle

Selling a luxury home isn't about the space, it is about the lifestyle

Dressed for the occasion, you face a group of equally polished people across the negotiating table. They grill you on your background, your career, your income and your prospects. Satisfied with your replies, they sit back and smile. You are in.

Is this a job interview? A visa application? Perhaps a matrimonial enquiry? Actually, it’s “none of the above”. This is a potential luxury homeowner being vetted before his purchase is approved.

If you thought the only differences between luxury homes and their middle-class counterparts were the price tags and the frills, think again. Posh houses collectively worth more than Rs 30,000 crore are coming up across the country and builders and developers are fast realising that if they are to get buyers to willingly part with eight-figure sums, they need selling strategies that are significantly different from what they follow for more affordable housing.

So whether it is brochures that could pass off for coffee-table books or conducting a series of “personal interactions” to determine whether a buyer is worthy of an upscale apartment complex, they’re willing to try it all. And then some.

That’s because even within the fast-growing luxury segment, property is quite distinct. Unlike other luxury goods, such as fashion, automobiles, jewellery and accessories, the price of top-end real estate differs drastically depending on where you buy it. A crore would fetch you a minuscule, bare four-walls in a Mumbai suburb, where the same amount or a little over could buy you a decent deal in another metro, and a posh flat in smaller towns.

Of course, “luxury” costs extra. Multi-layered security, water and power backup, Wi-Fi, modular kitchens and marble flooring are becoming hygiene factors in most new mid- to high-end residential projects. Which means property developers need to constantly offer their demanding, deep-pocketed customers something more.

Here is how they do it.

Less is more
“It’s not about selling a commodity like other homes, but a lifestyle,” declares Anuj Puri, chairman of property consulting firm, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj. Adds Pranay Vakil, chairman, Knight Frank, “You will almost never find large-scale advertisements for luxury homes. Publicity is done mainly through word-of-mouth or by select property consultancies.” The subtle approach helps the developer discourage window shoppers and zero in on the serious buyer.

Typically, new luxury housing projects target top-level professionals and executives. Which means developers need to speak to them in their language. It may be a while before Indian property developers take prospective buyers to site visits in stretch limos but, meanwhile, they aren’t holding back in organising the kind of dos that will appeal to their target clientele.

The Lodha group, which builds high-end apartments in Mumbai, uses events as a marketing strategy. Rather than hard sell the group’s exclusive projects, select sets of prospective buyers are invited to events like art appreciation or wine and cheese sessions.

The return on investment is intangible, but substantial: even if only 10-20 per cent of the invitees follow through and become customers, the remaining 80-90 per cent become worthwhile word-of-mouth ambassadors.

“Events create a complete experience for prospective customers. It helps them understand our products better,” says Abhisheck Lodha, director, Lodha Developers.

The Unitech group also opted for the subtle approach when it launched Grande, a 5,400 luxury apartment project in Noida, near Delhi. Instead of the usual brochures and flyers with covered with floor plans and details of proposed amenities, it created a two-part “book”.

While book 1 is all about luxury, lifestyle, safety and the thought behind a township centred on a golf course, the other book provides the specifications of the apartments, the project layout and other details.

R Nagraju “You cannot sell luxury products with simple brochures,” says R Nagraju, general manager, corporate planning and strategy, Unitech. He does not divulge details on the number of books in circulation or conversion rates.

As for marketing costs, each flat in the Grande development will sell for over Rs 2 crore; realty consultants believe the coffee-table brochures will account for less than 1 per cent of sales.

Not that advertising isn’t an option. But many developers believe an exclusive print campaign in niche publications may fit the bill better than broadbased television commercials.

Nitesh Estates Vice President, marketing, Ashok Ganguly points out that his company advertises its Bangalore-based Canary Wharf project in select magazines as well as in-flight publications on certain domestic and international airlines.

“This kind of advertising has given quality visibility with quality audience. The ads cater to intellectual mind space of prospective consumers and translating their aspirations into reality,” says Ganguly.

Perhaps the most in-your-face marketing initiative was a couple of years ago for Sahara Group’s Aamby Valley.

Television commercials, hoardings and full-colour advertisements featured celebrity brand ambassadors like Amitabh Bachchan, Aishwarya Rai, Boris Becker and Anna Kournikova, promoting the township in in Lonavla, Maharashtra.

But that’s a one-off case, say experts. You won’t find too many multi-media campaigns for top-end housing projects. In fact, you won’t find them listed with your neighbourhood broker, either — a portfolio manager is a better bet for promoting these properties. Which is why building a strong network is the prime focus of developers.

“We do a network campaign in three ways; through top end portfolio managers, housing finance companies and through customer reference,” says Ramashraya Yadav, head, finance and strategies, Orbit Corporation, the Mumbai-based developers of Villa Orb. That’s an 18-storey, eight-apartment building on Mumbai’s Nepeansea Road, each of which will sell at upward of Rs 42 crore.

Others are developing “dealer” networks. “We have a network of 850 franchisees and dealers. We also participate in exhibitions both domestically and internationally to reach our target audience,” says Bipin Agarwal, executive director, Omaxe, a Delhi-based developer.

Space splurge
What is a luxury home buyer looking for? Most property dealers still can’t answer that with certainty, but they are taking no chances. They offer apartments and villas and exclusive floors that come fully loaded with every conceivable modcon and round-the-clock security.

But what swings the deal for most high networth individuals is knowing who their neighbours will be and whether their privacy is adequately protected or not.

“If you sell one flat to a managing director, you cannot sell remaining flats to lesser ranked executives,” agrees Raminder Grover, managing director, Sandalwood High Street Residential, a subsidiary of Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj. Which is where the pre-purchase screening interviews come in.

To make doubly sure the privacy angle is covered, builders offer more space. Even in prime, heart of town locations, luxury homebuilders offer fewer flats. On Nepeansea Road, Villa Orb and Lodha’s Solitaire offer just eight apartments each. In Bangalore, the Canary Wharf project — located close to the commercial heart of Brigade Road and MG Road — will host only eight exclusive buyers.

Niranjan Hiranandani “Luxury home buyers need space that’s more than utilitarian, like bigger parking space, wider lobbies and so on,” says Niranjan Hiranandani, managing director, Hiranandani Constructions, a leading Mumbai developer.

That’s in the “town” houses. Space is not so much at a premium in the suburbs, so developers play another trump card — they create “destinations”. Taking a second look at the concept of luxury homes, developers are offering concept-based living options, often engaging foreign architects for the purpose.

The result is residences in golf courses (Jaypee in Noida), green areas (Omaxe’s The Forest in Noida), and spas (MetroCorp’s Nirvana in Bangalore), among others.

While the Omaxe project is located close to 325 acres of reserve forest, the project’s expected price of Rs 3 crore a unit is also attributed to the lavish landscaping within the project area.

Casa Estebana, developed by Koncept Ambience on the outskirts of Hyderabad, differentiates itself through Spanish style houses, while two projects in Noida (one by Jaypee and the other by Unitech) offers courses designed by golfing legend Greg Norman.

Developers are also offering upscale homes in smaller towns. There are two very good reasons for that. There’s very little competition from other builders and there’s significant untapped demand — not just from locals but also “townies” looking for a second, or holiday home.

Which is why DLF is planning a 115-acre ski village near Manali, Himachal Pradesh, which will also offer its villa residents kayaking, paragliding and other sport options. There’s a villa project coming up at Rishikesh as well — complete with swimming pool filled with Ganga water, a selling point, apparently.

High “net” worth
Projects like those are particularly appealing to prosperous, non-resident Indians. As most companies are finding, NRI demand accounts for anywhere between 15 and 25 per cent of all luxury home sales. Sales pitches in person to this influential and affluent customer group is difficult, which is why most builders are fine-tuning their online strategies.

That includes CRM programmes, quick follow-through on enquiries and targeted advertising. Virtual, 3-D tours and web walk-throughs are also an increasingly favoured option — Unitech and Orbit both offer the facility. Online interviews aren’t being considered, though.

Interest rates likely to fall in coming weeks

NEW DELHI: Interest rates are expected to fall over the next few weeks after finance minister P Chidambaram on Friday expressed his "wish" that lending and deposit rates be cut by 50 basis points.

He also issued an "advisory" to chiefs of PSU banks to focus on lending to the consumer goods sector — both durables and non-durables — in a bid to prop up consumption and production, which have been dropping for the last few months.

"It is important to focus on both investment and consumption... There has been some sluggishness and that is why this advisory," Chidambaram said after meeting chiefs of public sector banks.

While the advisory is expected to make car loans and financing for purchase of consumer goods cheaper, what happens to home loan rates was unclear. Though the minister indicated that the need to moderate home loan flows was no longer required, he was not as candid on the issue. But the overall message was clear: interest rates need to dip.

"If monetary policy is also supportive, it is possible to look forward to stable, and perhaps some moderation, in interest rates," he said ahead of RBI's quarterly policy review.

With public sector banks, which account for nearly 7% of the market, cutting rates, private players would have little option but to follow suit.

Rents hit the roof in Hyderabad

HYDERABAD: House rents have seen a steep hike in the surrounding areas of Hi-Tec City. This is most visible in Madhapur, which has seen an almost 100 per cent rise in just one year.

Till last year rents in this part of the city were comparable to other residential areas in the city. But the last quarter of the year saw the rent graph heading north at a furious pace.

This phenomenon is not limited only to Hi-Tec City but also in most residential colonies in the Serilingampally circle of GHMC where rents have doubled in the last two to three months. In areas like Maszid Banda, which is three kilometres away from the Kothaguda-Gachibowli road, house rents have doubled in the last one year.

"In January 2006, a two-room house was rented out for Rs 1,800 per month. By August 2007, the rent had gone up to Rs 2,500. Just four months later, in January, 2008, the rent of two-room houses have skyrocketed to Rs 3,500," said Anand Bhattacharya, associate analyst at Datamonitor Plc.

Most of the tenants in these areas are software company employees who see no other option but to accept the hike. "In all the surrounding areas of Hi-Tec City the situation is the same. We don't feel the pinch as the rent is usually shared by roommates and corporate salaries are also reasonably high," Anand said.

He does not want to move out of this area as it is only a 15-minute drive to his work place. "The roads are wider and there are no traffic jams here."

At Guttala Begumpet in Madhapur, one has to shell out Rs 12,500 for a two-bedroom flat. "In February, 2006, a similar flat was available for Rs 6,500," said Prasheel Bhanpur, who works as a corporate communications specialist in Maytas Infra Limited.

"It costs Rs 6,500 for even a single room with attached bathroom. The rent for such a room would not have been more than Rs 3,000 only a year back," Prasheel said.

Residents link the increase in rents to the opening of two new restaurants and supermarket in the locality. "Two new restaurants and a supermarket have come up at the Kothaguda junction. Two petrol pumps have been opened at Gulmohar Park and Lingampally railway station," says S Bhaskar Yadav, who owns two houses in Kondapur. Earlier, not many people were keen on living in areas like Maszid Banda, Sudarshan Colony and Alind Colony. But now there is no need to even put up a 'to let' board, as software employees are willing to pay as much as Rs 12,000 for a two-bedroom flat in a new building with three months rent in advance, Yadav said.

GHMC collects Rs 10 per square metre as property tax at Madhapur and Kondapur and surrounding colonies. "If the house owner himself occupies the house, 30 per cent of the total tax will be waived. If the house is rented out there will be no exemption," said deputy commissioner, Serilingampally-I GHMC, P Nagamani. There is no rent control mechanism under GHMC's purview, Nagamani added.

2007: Real estate growth moderate in Chennai

Hindu reporting

Many potential buyers adopted a “wait and watch” approach in 2007 preferring to stay in rental accommodation than buy, writes Ramesh Nair

Photo : N. Sridharan

Uncertain phase: The real estate prices went up and the buyers remained lukewarm about going in for purchase.

After a record 50% plus price increase per annum in 2005 and 2006, the Chennai residential real estate market witnessed moderate growth in 2007 with prices increasing 8-12% across various micro markets. However most of this price increase was seen in the first quarter of the year after which the prices and sales volume stagnated. Although the office market saw a record 7 million sft absorption in 2007 indicating new job creation and a strong economy, this did not translate to direct increase in prices and volumes in the residential market as witnessed over the last three years. Many potential buyers adopted a “wait and watch” approach in 2007 preferring to continue staying in rented accommodation than buy. The number of apartments being sold in 4Q 2007 was also lower than 4Q 2006. Also, the home loan market, which was growing at 30 % plus in 2005 and 2006, saw a growth of only 10-15%.

The key reason behind this slowdown has been higher prices and interest rates, impacting affordability, and to a lesser extent excess supply in a few micro markets, rather than slow down of economy. Developers, who were selling their entire projects in a few days, are now taking months to sell their unsold stock. Although, no major drop in prices are expected immediately as the vacancy rate of unsold completed residential real estate stock is still negligible. Developers have started offering a variety of offers such as free car parks and flexible financing options such as interest waiver during construction period so that they do not have to bring down the prices.
Negotiability

The year 2007 saw Chennai’s residential market returning to more normal levels of activity. Properties with deficiencies in location or overly optimistic asking prices were slow to move. The hardest hit was the Rs. 60 lakh plus apartment market. The past year saw return of negotiability in asking prices after a relatively long absence from the marketplace.

The city’s economy remains strong, and is creating jobs at a fast pace. Interest rates, which have been rising steadily, have begun to stabilise as inflation remains under control. These factors should continue to maintain reasonable demand, and prices from falling drastically.

. Contrary to what was seen in 2005 and 2006, the number of investors and speculators who entered the market in 2007 was lesser. Real estate private equity investors such as J P Morgan, Citigroup, Red Fort Capital and HDFC Realty invested in the Chennai real estate market. The difference in the launch price and sale price at the time of completion has reduced drastically in the last one year. The yields from residential property remained steady at 4.25 % to 5%. Home buyers have become more quality conscious and have started demanding better amenities and features.
Media savvy

Developers have become more media savvy and aggressively started spending on advertising and marketing. The home buyer’s exposure to real estate related advertising has increased drastically in the last one year. Developers also realised that they need to identify specific target markets to market their products. Many developers have started investing in setting up strong marketing teams.

After 3 years, the market started moving from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Many landlords, who were quoting exorbitant land prices in corridors such as OMR, are now willing to negotiate at more realistic levels.
Outlook for 2008

With IT and BPO companies facing the brunt of the appreciating rupee and many investors and speculators preferring to invest in other avenues, residential demand is further expected to be under pressure in 2008.

Unlike the last 3 years where the Chennai real estate market saw only winners, 2008 will witness winners and losers. It is also expected that developers will construct smaller units without compromising on the amenities to make it more affordable.

With more than half the time spent in automobiles today representing time spent in severe traffic and soaring of fuel prices over the last few years, access to public transportation and road infrastructure will become key drivers for taking housing decisions in the future. Developers need to understand their consumers better and figure out a way to reach them the way they want to be reached. Developers need to realise that over the last few years the consumers have been exposed to new areas of real estate and become more knowledgeable.

As the market becomes tougher and the home buyer more choosy and price sensitive, developers will need to use many more innovative lead generation and touch point creation methods of marketing to successfully market their residential units.

The year 2008 will also see a number of large Pan India developers such as DLF, Hirco and Unitech announce their large residential townships projects in Chennai thereby increasing the supply, and keeping the prices under control.

s0The market is adjusting after a period of unprecedented expansion. It’s reasonable to expect that price appreciation will flatten or decline in some areas.

The length and depth of the adjustment remains to be seen. Even today, there have been instances where entire projects, which have been priced right, being sold within a few weeks of launch.

Although the Chennai real estate story is real, large in size and will pay in the long run, developers need to realise that volumes are inversely related to price and lower the price higher the opportunity.

Housing boom fades in Hyderabad

Real estate boom fizzles out fast
Deccan Chronicle Hyderabad,
Dec 25: The real estate boom which held sway in 2006 petered out in 2007. The poor response to auction of Kokapet lands in the third week of December was only the latest instance in the downswing. Except for a few projects catering to high end consumers in up-market areas such as Madhapur and Gachibowli, the construction scenario was dismal in the capital and surrounding areas.
The number of real estate transactions in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy districts declined by 40 per cent when compared to the previous year. Fall in NRI investments because of the increased rupee value and the real estate industry reaching saturation levels were cited as the main reasons. The slowdown in the IT industry also contributed to the downturn. However, the prices of apartments remained high in the city after construction came to a halt in the wake of stringent building norms introduced through GO 86.
"The growth rate from April to December this year is 13 per cent while it was 38 per cent in the previous year," said a senior official of the Stamps and Registration Department. Real estate transactions almost came to halt this year in areas such as Maheshwaram, Shamshabad, Nizampet and Ibrahimpatnam, which saw tremendous growth in 2006.
Interestingly, the revenue increased from Rs 752 crore (between April-December 2006) to Rs 762 crore for the corresponding period this year in Ranga Reddy because of revision of market values of lands. "But the number of transactions declined from 1.72 lakh to 1.03 lakh in Ranga Reddy and 33,000 to 28,000 in Hyderabad," said the official.
In Hyderabad, the revenue also dipped from Rs 312 crore to Rs 299 crore. Top builders admitted that the situation had drastically changed when compared to last year. "Though the price did not fall, there is no rush to buy property," said Indu managing director, Mr Shyamprasad Reddy. However, the year also saw the launching of the first ever public private partnership township at Srinagar where owners of plots became equity holders.
Other positive developments in the real estate front were the mega venture of Lanco Hills at Manikonda and payment of Rs 444 crore by American real estate giant Tishman Speyer for the 500-acre township at Tellapur. Township projects of Indu Aranya, Palm Meadows and Aparna also started off in 2007. The year also witnessed the implementation of GO 86 which stipulated mortgage of a portion of the constructed area to the civic authorities. Builders would have to forfeit the area if they violate building norms.
"We made it compulsory for builders to register themselves with civic authorities," said Greater Hyderabad Municipal Commissioner, Mr C.V.S.K. Sarma. "We also introduced tatkal scheme for independent buildings whose permissions will be sanctioned in 48 hours."

Economic Times on the Real Estate Slowdown

Economic times acknowledges the housing bubble though it is still afraid to displease the builders. A simple reality check is all you need. Goto to the hundreds of housing complexes which have sprung up all over the city of mumbai and check the occupancy. The people living there are either the buyers who got in cheap or the apartments are rented out. Technically in Mumbai, every apartment if priced right will be picked up in seconds. If the price is not right, I think the bubble will grow bigger and the crash will be steeper. So a 30-40% drop is not too big considering pricess have jumped 3times in the past 3 years

ET article follows.

HIGH interest rates and rapid escalation that land prices witnessed this year may be one indicator of an impending real estate bubble of sorts. Softening of prices in select pockets such as Gurgaon, Noida & Ghaziabad in Delhi NCR and certain areas in Mumbai over the last 6-8 months has already been witnessed. But what does all this signify for the Indian real estate sector? Will the bubble burst or are these mere speculations? SundayET gets to the root of the matter.
There are several indicators that could suggest a bubble. Unreasonably inflated real estate prices across the board, higher vacancy rates in residential and commercial projects with unwarranted project delays by developers and a steady withdrawal of both domestic and international investors are some of the signs that imply a real estate bubble in the market. Experts suggest that a 10-15% correction in prices does not imply that the sector will slow down. The real estate sector is currently on a high due to high economic growth, shortage of residential spaces, growth in IT/ITes, retail etc. The focus though will now have to shift more towards Tier II and Tier III cities since the metros are getting saturated.
Anuj Puri, chairman and country head, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM) says that there are no indications that investor activity has overtaken genuine buyer activity. “The residential sector is led by end-users and it is they who dictate the state of the market. There is no evidence of a ‘bubble.’ Neither is there a significant correlation between the state of the stock market and that of the property market. There are instances of overheating but these are localized.”
Developers are quick to brush off the idea that any signs of a bubble may even exist. Dr B P Dhaka, COO(MP), Parsvnath Developers feels that it will be completely wrong to think that the current real estate boom is a bubble waiting to burst. “The growth in realty has evolved back-to-back with all round economic development witnessed by the economy over the last decade. The boom in real estate might have looked like a bubble about to burst, but the fact remains that the burst has been converted into further opportunities because of transformation of the real estate sector into an organized sector and its penetration into the Tier II and Tier III cities.”
Agrees Avneesh Sood, director, Eros Group, who feels that the 10-20% correction in property prices augurs well for the industry because there are various unorganised developers who create unrealistic
price mechanisms, hence making it unaffordable for genuine home buyers. “The picture is really not as bleak as it is made out to be. Demand is not exactly non-existent. There will be a decent growth at an average of 5% between 2008 to 2010. Developers for their part are still very optimistic, as buyers’ continue
to pick up property for end-use. Developers’ should now target the affordable quality housing segment for the middle class and offer decent value for money dwelling units.”
When a bubble develops in any market, it is essentially because prices for that particular commodity or asset have gone through the roof and beyond affordability levels. Hence, real estate bubbles are invariably followed by severe price decreases. So what exactly can be done to avoid the house price cash from finding its way into the Indian market?
Ganesh Raj, Partner & National Leader, Real Estate Practice, Ernst & Young, feels that the government has to play an active role to keep the situation in control. “Severe price decreases happen if there is a demand-supply mismatch. We currently face a shortage of about 24 million households. In order to control any severe fall, the government has to take certain measures. Steps like repealing of ULCRA are a positive move. Similarly, checking that speculators are not entering the market, appointing of regulator in order to check that real estate developers are not involving themselves in unfair practices, increasing the FSI especially for residential sectors would help in controlling the prices.”
Raj’s cautious approach is only natural as he remembers the last time when the burst in the mid 90s wrecked havoc in the property market in India. At that time the reason for the crash was mainly due to there being more investors than end users. “The real estate markets closely tracked the stock-market fall at that point of time. Housing prices that had zoomed during the bull run of 1993-94, started showing a downward slide in 1995. The burst in real estate market lasted far longer than the burst in the stock-market. Between 1995 and 2000, the property bubble that was built on speculations burst, and prices declined by almost 30–40 per cent across India. Artificial demand was created and there was no supply to meet that demand which led to a crash in prices. The bubble burst in 1996 as speculators were desperately liquidating their holdings,” he adds.
With land always being a scarce resource, property prices would invariably follow basic economics of demand-supply and pricing. Once asset prices start escalating, the initial interpretation always suggests a bubble. However, an in-depth analysis of price appreciation in real estate and understanding the reasons could help in comprehending these fears. Moreover, the available landbank and technology together with innovations in the realty sector is likely to avoid a real estate bubble burst and sustain the current scenario.

REALTY CHECK

Unreasonably inflated prices, higher vacancy rates, steady withdrawal of domestic and foreign investors are signs implying a real estate bubble

Govt measures such as appointing of regulators to check against unfair practices and increasing the FSI for residential sectors can help in controlling prices

Landbank and technology with innovations in the realty sector are likely to avoid a bubble burst and sustain the current scenario.

Bangalore prices dropping

Of all the papers, the times of india, one which is known to hype real estate is reporting this news. The news seems to be factually incorrect. Sarjapur ring road has been quoting from 3.3k to 4k. It never went to 5k+ . I wonder where these guys get the data.

Good time to buy a house in Bangalore
11 Dec 2007, 0114 hrs IST,Sujit John & Anshul Dhamija,TNN

BANGALORE: If you are planning to buy a house, perhaps now is the time to do so. After three years of unprecedented growth between 2003 and 2006, property prices across much of Bangalore are now falling. And falling sharply in many areas.

A survey by real estate consultancy Asipac finds that residential prices in south east Bangalore (around Sarjapur Road) have dropped 10-20% in the past one year — with prices now in the range of Rs 3,600-4,600 per sqft against Rs 4,000-5,300 a year ago.

South Bangalore including Jayanagar and J P Nagar (except Koramangala) prices are seen to have dropped 8-15%. East Bangalore, which was the first to see corrections, as TOI reported earlier, is estimated by Asipac to have witnessed a further price drop of 6-12% in 2007.

The city centre and parts of North Bangalore (especially between Hebbal and Yelahanka) are the only areas seen to be still holding up, the former because of lack of fresh supply of property, and the latter because of the proximity to the upcoming airport.
"In many cases, the quoted prices may be higher, but developers are throwing in a lot of freebies that effectively bring the price down," says Asipac chairman Amit Bagaria.

The price drop is the result of the enormous gap between demand and supply. Average sale volumes are seen to be down 10-40%.

"Developers who were selling 60 flats in a quarter a year ago are today selling barely 6," says Mayank Saksena, VP in property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj.

Asipac estimates that against a total sale of about 33,500 homes by the entire organized sector in 2006, this year will end with a sale of no more than 26,000 homes. At the same time, the number of properties under construction has increased manifold.

Irfan Razack, CMD of the Prestige Group, admits property prices in the city’s peripheral areas are at an "all-time unrealistic high".

Geetha Naresh, a property consultant, says investors who had blocked their money on prime properties in Whitefield and Marathahalli two years ago paying between Rs 1,600 and Rs 2,000 per sqft are today willing to sell at the same price.

"There are instances where investors are even willing to sell below their purchase price, at rates like Rs 1,500 per sqft," she says.

Many speculators and investors had entered the market in 2005 and 2006, booking multiple flats, thinking they would be able to dispose them of once prices reached a certain higher level.

"They only paid the initial amounts and they did not have the capacity to pay the full amount. But now they are all stuck. Neither can they pay the instalments nor can they sell the flat because of poor demand. And since they have to pay off bank loans, there is large-scale distress sales happening," says an analyst.

Low occupancy in palm beach road in Navi Mumbai

I was driving on palm beach road few days ago in the night and I noticed very few lights in the numerous apartments which dot the road. The location is good but I guess Navi Mumbai residents seem to be priced out of it. There was another mention of a Cidco flat which was priced at 45L and still not selling

NAVI MUMBAI: While builders have claimed that 18,000 to 20,000 houses have been sold in Navi Mumbai this year, statistics show that barely 10,000 house transactions have been formalised at sub-registrar offices here to date. The boom, if any, appears one-sided—favouring only the affluent.

Secretary of the Navi Mumbai Chamber of Housing, Manohar Shroff, insisted that the market has picked up after a slump earlier this year. However, no one is denying that only a fractional affluent class is interested in the highly priced realty of Navi Mumbai, a city that, ironically, was created in the early 1970s only to decongest Mumbai.

For example, a 2-BHK flat in Kharghar can cost Rs 35 lakh to Rs 42 lakh. At Palm Beach Road, it comes for Rs 90 lakh to Rs 1.5 crore. Little wonder that barely 10% of flats on Palm Beach Road are occupied.

Rahul Thakur, a lawyer who has lived in Vashi all his life, said, “It's true that a handful of malls and many towers have come up in areas like Vashi, Kharghar and Palm Beach Road, but that is not an indication of house sales, because working professionals like me cannot afford these very high prices.''

Developer Nalin Shah said that at the ongoing property exhibition of the Builders' Association of Navi Mumbai (BANM), a Mumbai visitor who owns a bungalow in Juhu was interested in a Rs 5 crore villa at Khargha

ULCA ulcer will cause dip in prices

Except for the rich no one can afford to buy in the mumbai suburbs upto Malad which has now touched over 6000 per sq ft. Now with ULCA most the new buyers will be in the areas mentioned in the article below. With less demand, the western suburbs will drop too in sympathy. Housing as its evident is a function of demand, supply and affordability. It seems the sweet spot is here for the "peripheral areas". The big winners as are the likes of DLF, Hiranandani and Raheja which will see enormous growth over the next few years. Size does matter when it comes to projects and these guys are best positioned to deliver a quality product over a long period of time.

Mumbai, December 1 Anshumali Ruparel

THE state legislature’s decision to repeal the Urban Land Ceiling (Regulation) Act (ULCRA), 1976 has a silver lining for thousands of genuine home-seekers across Maharashtra and several short- and long-term benefits for Mumbaiites. While the impact of the decision will become evident only after a few years, but the realty sector can foresee gains.

Considering about 1,200 acres is available immediately, the “possibility of price reduction” is on everyone’s mind. According to Niranjan Hiranandani, MD of Hiranandani Group, “The repeal will not have any impact on the real estate rates in South Mumbai but we can expect some correction in peripheral areas. But price structure of tier-II and tier-III cities would change. The impact will be evident in a couple of years.”

In Mumbai, most of the land going to be freed is in the central suburbs—Kanjur Marg, Vikhroli, Chembur and Bhandup—and satellite towns like Thane and Kalyan. The availability of massive plots will translate into huge supply of flats, which is expected to suppress the property prices or at least stabilise it.

Mohan Deshmukh, president of Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry (MCHI), explains: “The city needs about 1 lakh housing units a year and the present supply is only 50,000 units per annum. The freed land may contribute about 20,000 more units a year. But how to meet the backlog of 15 lakh units which is fuelling the prices? One can’t say that the prices in Mumbai will reduce but 25 to 30 per cent reduction can be expected in towns like Pune, Sangli, Kolhapur, etc. For prices to fall in Mumbai, greater housing reforms are needed. This is just a beginning.”

Another area of benefit is infrastructure. Despite apprehensions of additional burden on the already-stressed infrastructure, a ray of hope has emerged in the form of Central funding likely to come the state’s way. Repealing ULCRA was one of the conditions of the Centre to release about Rs 11,000 crore to start, speed up and complete several projects under Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM)—including projects like Mithi River Beautification, Mumbai Metro Rail, Eastern Freeway, Middle Vaitarna Water Supply, Elevated Sahar Road, Underground tunnels, Bandra-Worli Sea Link, etc.

“On completion, these projects will turn the city into a global metro. It will attract huge FDI which will again contribute to the overall development,” says Anand Gupta, Chairman, Builders Association of India (BAI).

“The fund will also create enormous opportunities of employment as widespread construction activity will be witnessed in suburban Mumbai besides other cities,” adds Gupta.

The big boys of the real estate fraternity will now compete for the freed land. Two-room-kitchen and 1 BHK flats will reappear. And being a part of the volume production process and that too in not-so-expensive suburbs, these flats are expected to be affordable to many middle class Mumbaiites. Besides, home buyers will get a space in reputed townships built by a known developer.

“For example, Thane would get around 180 acres of land now. Assuming development of only 1 crore square feet takes place in the next couple of years, the number of 1 BHK flats available at the end would be around 15,000, which will surely be consumed by three types of people—locals, people shifting from island city and those coming from outside,” says Ajay Vora, a property consultant. “The rates will surely duck due to this supply. However, the supply would be spread over couple of years,” he said.

Shifting of slums and relieving the urban areas from encroachments to make land available for further development and decongestion may seem far-fetched, but these are other possibilities Mumbai should look forward to.

Land prices set to crash ??

Is this the pin which deflates the bubble ???

A total of 22,000 hectares (approximately 54,363 acres) will be released in the city with the State Legislative Assembly on Thursday passing a resolution to repeal the Urban Land Ceiling and Regulation Act of 1976. Of the 22,000 hectares, 9,500 hectares (23,475 acres) will be used for construction activity.

However, many city builders are still nurturing hopes that the cooling of heated up land rates will take up to two years to become a reality. President of the Promoters and Builders Association of Pune (PBAP) Lalitkumar Jain, while welcoming the decision said, "Mere repeal of the Act will not bring down the prices. The government has to address the demand and supply issue and a master plan will have to readied for the same. Infrastructure should be made available to support the desire to provide affordable housing," he said.

Municipal commissioner Praveensinh Pardeshi too welcomed the decision, but said that land prices will definitely come down in the "near future." This will help low cost housing for the poor and will also put a full stop to burgeoning slums, he said.

Another builder, Rohite Gera, vicepresident of PBAP, said the repeal of the Act and the ensuing price slump that could happen over 15 months would affect the "fly-by-night operators and not the regular real estate developers." Also, the government decision to levy a tax on vacant land will have to assessed to see how much it would benefit the end user, he said.

With the Act being repealed by the state, it will also throw open the blocked funds under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), a pre-condition put by the Centre.

Schemes for poor under the Development Control rules and the JNNURM will get more land for development, Pardeshi said.

Advantage New Developers As Mumbai Land Prices Seen Falling

"They will also benefit from the local govt picking up the tab for developing roads, water supply, electricity lines"

The repeal of the Urban Land Ceiling Act (Ulca) by the Maharashtra assembly on Thursday will benefit new township developers in a big way. But the profits of developers who had invested in townships on the basis of the old law might take a hit.

Existing developers will have to compete with new realtors who will not only benefit from buying land at softer prices following more land being available in the market but also have the benefit of the local government taking on the cost of infrastructure such as roads, water supply, sewage lines and electricity distribution lines within townships, said Kumar Gera, chairman of Confederation of Real Estate Developers Associations of India, a lobby representing real estate developers. The cost of new infrastructure could make a difference of up to 20% of the project cost, he said.

According to a recent report on integrated townships by real estate consultant firm DTZ, 12 townships are being planned in Mumbai and Pune on a total of 8,053 acres. Typically in Mumbai, land costs are between 50-80% of total project cost depending on the area, with the interest costs an additional 12-13%.

Across the state, about 17,000 acres of land is expected to be released into the market on account of the repeal of the Act. While upmarket locales in Mumbai such as south Mumbai, tony suburbs such as Bandra, Khar and Santa Cruz have little vacant land, the repeal is expected to trigger development in surburbs, such as Kandivali and Malad in the west where land lies vacant, and Thane and beyond among the central suburbs. It would also release land in tier II cities such as Pune, Nagpur and Nashik.

Medha Patkar condemns ULCA

With the repeal of ULCA 3000 + acres will be freed in Mumbai and more in Pune. There shouldn't be any doubt in anyone's mind that this was done to fill the coffers of the builders. The builder politician nexus is well known anyway and the builders will compensate the politicians. Why should be poor benefit anyway ?? What are they doing for the politicians ? Its never been any government's priority to create housing for the poor. Why should the case be different this time.

Condemning the state government's decision to repeal the Urban Land Ceiling (Regulation) Act (ULCRA), Narmada Bachao Andolan leader Medha Patkar said the move was meant only to authorise large land holdings of individuals, which, till now, were held by them illegally.

Addressing a news conference here on Friday, Patkar expressed the view that the repeal will lead to unequal distribution of land, increase in the number of homeless, and most importantly, it will increase the gap between the rich and the poor. She charged that in Mumbai alone, about 30,000 hectares of land will go in the hands of big companies and builders. According to her, Pune too will not remain unaffected.

"Moreover, we are of a strong belief that the state government's assurance of providing free housing to the homeless will also not come through," Patkar said.

The ULCRA was repealed on Thursday by the state government, which restricted individual land holding to 500 square metre.

"The government had the power to acquire and develop vacant plots for common good under ULCRA, but it failed to do so. It is utterly farcical to assure that the poor will benefit. The Act has been repealed only for the benefit of the builder lobby, who will have a free hand now," Patkar said.

Patkar added that the National Alliance of People's Movement was left with no option but to stage agitation and protests against `land grabbing'.

Costliest Indian land deal: 3,000 cr for 3 plots

A record property deal has been made at Mumbai's Bandra-Kurla complex. It's the highest in the country.

The price tag for the first plot was Rs 5,04,000 a square metre or Rs 831 crore and the 16,500 square metre plot was bought by Mumbai's Wadhwa Builders.

Wadhwa Builders have paid 229 per cent higher than the reserve price.

Reliance Industries bought the second plot — a car park-cum-commercial complex — for Rs 918 crore, valued at Rs 27,917 per square foot. The bid by Reliance was the highest and winning bid.

Reliance paid Rs 3,00,500 a square metre, for the 30,550 square metre plot. They bid 96 per cent higher than the reserve price set for the particular plot.

Meanwhile, the TCG and Hiranandani joint venture have bagged the third plot, for a commercial complex at Rs 1,041 crore.

Mumbai Metropolitan Development Authority (MMRDA) has raked in Rs 2,790 crore with the sale of these three commercial plots.
Prices were expected to touch such dizzying heights, because of the lack of supply existing at the Bandra-Kurla complex on Monday. The MMRDA has positioned it as an international financial business hub and demand kept increasing so far.

Consultants said there will be no respite for the next one year. Commercial property prices are expected to touch as high as Rs 60,000 a square foot.

But the MMRDA has reacted and said that Rs 2,790 crore is precious little compared to the Rs 260,000 crore that they require in terms of funding to develop and improve the Mumbai Metropolitan region.

It is 230 per cent higher than the reserve price. The reserve price was set at Rs 163,000 a square metre, which was the highest the last time MMRDA sold plots at the BKC. Prices have more than doubled between last year’s auction and this year’s auction.

Guidance values skyrocket in Bangalore

DH News Service, Bangalore:
Just over four months ahead of the opening of the international airport in Devanahalli, the airport is spinning a land price boom.

This time, not on speculation and hearsay but with the official State stamp.

Devanahalli Taluk has clocked an impressive rise in residential land prices, as the Department of Registration and Stamps notified revised property guidance values in Ramanagaram and Bangalore Rural Districts on Tuesday. The revision of values in the Bangalore Rural District covered Devanahalli, Doddaballapur, Hoskote and Nelamangala taluks.

In terms of percentage-wise rise in guidance values, Hire Amanikere in Devanahalli Town registered the biggest, touching Rs seven crore per acre, a whopping 180 per cent more than the prevailing guidance value. Residential land values in Doddaballapur Cross and B B Road in Devanahalli Town have touched Rs 15 crore, with both areas registering a 50 per cent increase. Parvathapura is also among the Town’s top draws, registering a solid 166.67 per cent increase in value. While the existing guidance value in the area (residential) is Rs three crore per acre, the new value is Rs eight crore.

Doddaballapur Cross has registered a 66.67 per cent rise in commercial land price as well.

OBJECTIONS INVITED
The Department has invited public objection to the revised values within 15 days from Tuesday. Suggestions and objections could be sent to the Secretary, Central Valuation Committee, Office of the Inspector General of Registration and Commissioner of Stamps, 7th Floor, BWSSB Wing, Cauvery Bhavan, K G Road, Bangalore - 560 009. The copies of the draft notification are available at the respective Deputy Commissioner, Sub-Registrar, panchayat and CMC offices.