Monday, August 19, 2013

Rupee in Doldrums USDINR -> Updates 62 then 64 then 66 then 68


USD INR in the last year v/s USDCNY (Chinese Renmimbi Yuan)

 From the International press

http://money.cnn.com/2013/08/19/news/economy/india-rupee/  

"HONG KONG (CNNMoney)

The rupee is trading at record lows and stocks have lost 10% in a month, even as the Indian government insists the country's faltering economy is not in crisis.

The slide that has rocked Indian markets accelerated Monday, with the rupee hitting a new record low against the dollar. The Mumbai Sensex, the country's benchmark index, dropped 1.6% on Monday and has now lost 10% of its value in the past month.
Investors are worried about India's large current account deficit, which reflects the nation's tendency to import many more goods than it exports and leaves it heavily reliant on foreign capital.

Talk of tighter U.S. monetary policy has seen some investors pull out of emerging markets in recent months.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has tried to calm nerves, saying the government has enough foreign reserves to defend the rupee for months.

"There is no question of going back to the 1991 [balance of payment crisis]," Singh told the Press Times of India, referring to an episode that nearly resulted in India defaulting on its debt payments.
But with elevated inflation, a sky-high government deficit and the economy slowing, some are worried that recent government attempts to shore up confidence may have had the opposite effect."

- Source: CNN Money


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-08-18/india-markets-plunge-pressures-singh-as-economic-crisis-deepens

"India’s biggest two-day stock market slide since 2009, surging bond yields and a plunge in the rupee to a record low are pressuring officials for fresh steps to stem capital outflows and support the economy.
The S&P BSE Sensex (SENSEX) Index sank 1.6 percent at the close in Mumbai, extending the 4 percent loss on Aug. 16. The rupee tumbled 2.3 percent against the dollar, touching an all-time low of 63.23. The yield on the government bond due May 2023 rose 34 basis points to 9.24 percent, the highest on a 10-year note since 2008.
The market rout underscores the failure of months of measures to contain outflows, from higher interest rates to gold import curbs. Foreigners sold a net $3 billion of Indian stocks and bonds in July as the slowest growth in a decade made Asia’s third-largest economy vulnerable to a pullout of funds from emerging markets, spurred by speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cool stimulus"
- Bloomberg BusinessWeek



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Now in $ terms any crore rupee property is back to being 80 lakh property and so on.
continue discussion below



307 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 307 of 307
Property in Thane said...

While the spotlight so far has been on the rupee and the equity markets, real estate prices have started to bear the impact as well. A Business Standard report points out that of the 26 cities surveyed by the National Housing Bank (NHB), as many as 22 including Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore and Chennai saw a drop in property prices during the April-June quarter, compared to the first quarter of this calendar year. An all-round squeeze in liquidity and dearth of buyers have led to a fall in prices across the country.

REBear said...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/real-estate/news/south-delhis-property-prices-down-by-20-35-defence-colony-and-vasant-vihar-worst-hit/articleshow/22445800.cms?curpg=2

What a coincidence, really !!! Yesterday I went to Defence Colony to meet someone and I was shocked to see the kind of hype that I heard previously about this locality. Foul smell of drain pervades near C block, and I immediately checked magic bricks if floor prices really are anywhere upward of 10 cr as I checked 2 years back. Guess what, after two years similar properties are priced around 4-5 Cr.

Anonymous said...

@If their own god men are caught doing "balatkaar" someone is out to defame their religion. If other religion leaders are caught, these same clowns are quick to condemn billions for the sins of a few.

If their political party leader is caught in corruption or criminal activity he was framed. Well, you get the drift...


Perceived coherence of belief is comfortable, questioning one's belief is uncomfortable. Most people avoid discomfort.

Anonymous said...

as if 4-5 crores is pocket change!! wow!! how does it matter to us if 10cr becomes 5 cr? it is unaffordable to the common man.. but hey, the common nan is supposed to take up these mega loans and repay them all through out their lives, while the politicians keep on making fools of us..

Anonymous said...

>A politician is a fellow who will lay down your life for his country.

Anonymous said...

correction only means, that property is super expensive vs super super super expensive. Market has already rebounded. Mass population is screwd, and you have no way to get out of the mess. Exploding young population with limited land with huge interest in Gold, Cricket, Serials and Bollywood( filled with Miley Cyrus wannabe's and Douche bags wearing tight fitting jeans/shirts, Sunglasses,work out 25 hours a day+with a high school diploma in the bag- Amir khan and Salman Khan)

Jai Hind

Anonymous said...

Some acknowledgement of the bubble burst from the MSM

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Housing-slump-Real-estate-market-crumbles-as-economy-slows/articleshow/22479932.cms

Anonymous said...

Sorry folks. There is no bubble and no bubble burst. Even if prices fall from half a million dollars per home to "just" a quarter million dollars, that does not help 99% of the population. Most Indians will not earn (let alone save) anything close to a quarter million dollars in their lifetime.

It is now clear that there is going to be no meaningful QE taper, Rupee has recovered strongly and asset prices have stabilized worldwide. Central bankers will fight tooth and nail to keep asset prices high even if it means that the printing presses have to be run day and night until smoke bellows from them, the hinges wear off and the plates fall down to the floor with a clang. Even then, there will be repair teams ready to fix the thing and put it back into production in a matter of minutes.

It is astonishing to see that even through the depths of this phony "crisis" (which is entirely the creation of the media), the SENSEX has not gone down and has in fact surged ever higher! Dudes, RE prices are even more "sticky" than stock prices and stock prices are going UP, not DOWN!

BTW, seen DLF's stock price recently? It is zooming. Since stocks are leading indicators, it is a sign of things to come. Get ready for the next big bull run of the Indian RE market!

Anonymous said...

BTW, seen DLF's stock price recently? It is zooming.

Current price - 150.
Price in Jan 2013 - 240
Price in Jan 2008 - 1200

Fall since peak = 85%. Hardly a vote of confidence. Unless you are saying that the worst is behind us now.

Anonymous said...

BTW, seen DLF's stock price recently? It is zooming.

hehehe, nothing to argue as you would always be in denial when the simplest thing to do is to ask a broker for the price of your house, or notice whether your friends are able to get good deals or not. And you wan't do that.

DLF stock price came down from 1000/- to 120/- despite all money printing, Japan's RE crashed inspire of money printing, and latest US 10 year yields are at 3% despite no signs of tapering.

My best advice, short rupee long term if it comes to 60/-, buy Gold if it falls back to 25000/- as an insurance, and sell your RE if you are making profits. You will not repent !

aam aadmi said...

It is astonishing to see that even through the depths of this phony "crisis" (which is entirely the creation of the media), the SENSEX has not gone down and has in fact surged ever higher! Dudes, RE prices are even more "sticky" than stock prices and stock prices are going UP, not DOWN!

Well that's the problem with looking at the crisis through the lens of sensex and currency values. I wrote here before that rupee will go back up then down and then back up, it will also never touch 90 as some were claiming because consumption will fall before that.

The crisis is very real and ongoing, these things don't appear in a day and don't disappear in a day, India's crisis has been a decade in the making, more than that in fact and it's not going to disappear in a year, I still boldly predict that a year down the road things will be much worse, we are only just beginning to feel the impact of record breaking inflation on consumption.

And if sensex must be accounted for, adjusted for inflation it's returns are down in the dumps.

Anonymous said...

"The crisis is very real and ongoing, these things don't appear in a day and don't disappear in a day, India's crisis has been a decade in the making, more than that in fact and it's not going to disappear in a year, I still boldly predict that a year down the road things will be much worse, we are only just beginning to feel the impact of record breaking inflation on consumption."

As long as real yields are effectively negative in the West, FII money will come into India seeking yield. Even in INR. Especially in INR. Particularly when the INR's purchasing power is so high (relative to other currencies). The Economist's Bigmac index ranked INR as the world's MOST UNDERVALUED CURRENCY and that was BEFORE the recent sharp depreciation.

If yields in the West are going to rise (as some people on this board are suggesting) then pray tell me why there is over $100 Billion worth of demand for Verizon's issuance of corporate bonds to pay for its acquisition of Verizon Wireless? The yield on these bonds is estimated to be at around 5%, i.e. a piddling low yield compared to historic levels and just a 2% spread over the 10 Year Treasury. So what's going on?

Investors aren't stupid. Everyone with half a brain knows that Bernanke and his successor will never, EVER meaningfully raise the Fed policy rate. The Fed is just talking about "tapering" now, i.e. (printing "only" 80 billion dollars a month instead of 85 billion - like that makes a BIG difference). Even if QE3 stops (and that's a BIG IF), the Fed is on the record stating that interest rates will be at zero until...like...forever. I fail to see how asset prices or currencies in the emerging world can meaningfully decline in these circumstances. If India gives 10% interest rates and the US gives 0.001%, then money will keep flowing into India until that arbitrage is eliminated. This is how markets work.

Don't get me wrong. India has a horribly inefficient and unproductive economy and in ordinary times, this would kill our currency and crush our global purchasing power. However, the Fed's policies have made this a rather extraordinary time. I don't see this situation correcting anytime soon.

Anonymous said...

So you mean to say work in the usa, save money and send it to india. get 10% interest on your deposit.

Wht about INR. INR is going more than 20% down every year.

so that means a 10% loss on deposits in india if at all you want to convert them back to USD.

Who would want to invest in india then?

REBear said...

. India has a horribly inefficient and unproductive economy and in ordinary times, this would kill our currency and crush our global purchasing power. However, the Fed's policies have made this a rather extraordinary time. I don't see this situation correcting anytime soon.

The first line says it. In other words, if there is a spurt in crime rate in Delhi, you look moving towards Bangalore or Mumbai - not Congo or Nigeria. As Jim Rogers says, the Fed will have to stop printing money one way or the other. Because if it prints too much money, people will eventually start asking for more yields or dump your currency. The US yields have now started moving up, irrespective of taper or no taper news.

REBear said...

@aam aadmi

As for the rupee stopping its slide because the demand coming down, I would ask why hasn't demand adjustment failed to stop the rupee slide from 1947 till date ? Why didn't demand adjust when the rupee fell from 45/- to 57/- in the last two years. This time won't be different, rupee comes down to 60/- and imports slowly start picking up, exporters start under invoicing and within a year next cycle of depreciation to 80/- starts.

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This is worth a read
End game for property speculation in India by Manish Bhandari.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/article_pdf.php?autono=947648&num=0

Anonymous said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/Infosys-IT-manager-jumps-to-death/articleshow/22498779.cms?adcode=100

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skeptic optimist said...

RBI rules post created.
Continue discussion on new post!

TY

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property in navi mumbai said...

i think its the black money coming back for elections..so its high..it will be back to original in some time..

real estate in surat said...

i think its because of the election money coming from foreign banks..corrupt politicians..

real estate property portal in mumbai said...

rupee has always been weak against dollar. of it falls more than it would be great problem for the economy. the inflation will increase too much. especially the petroleum and precious metals.

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post independence Rupee has always been under influence of dollar and weaker. needs to come out of this influence make ourselves stronger.

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Nice blog... I read your blog and I really impressed your writing concept every point is very clearly and easily understandable...I am real estate executive and here to tell about best flats for sale in Hyderabad in very affordable budget.

Garudachala Estates said...

Flats & Apartment building with modern amenities at KR Puram
With 45+ world class amenities and features for safe and secure wellbeing, Garuda Creekview offers 2BHK & 3BHK Flats & apartment buildings in Bangalore

Eeshee said...

Your writing has a unique voice that separates it from others. It's refreshing to find such original content in the blogosphere. Ganga Realty launches its new residential project in Gurgaon. Nearby Dwarka Expressway named as Ganga Realty Sector 84 Gurgaon. This project promotes an exceptional living style that combines amenity, convenience, and elegance. It offers excellent connectivity to major business hubs, schools, hospitals, institutions, and entertainment zones. With easy access to the city's prime areas, residents can enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities while residing in a serene environment. It gives a chance to buy 3 BHK and 4 BHK apartments at a good price.

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